Power laws for heavy-tailed distributions: modeling allele and haplotype diversity for the national marrow donor program.

Measures of allele and haplotype diversity, which are fundamental properties in population genetics, often follow heavy tailed distributions. These measures are of particular interest in the field of hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). Donor/Recipient suitability for HSCT is determined by Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) similarity. Match predictions rely upon a precise description of HLA diversity, yet classical estimates are inaccurate given the heavy-tailed nature of the distribution. This directly affects HSCT matching and diversity measures in broader fields such as species richness. We, therefore, have developed a power-law based estimator to measure allele and haplotype diversity that accommodates heavy tails using the concepts of regular variation and occupancy distributions. Application of our estimator to 6.59 million donors in the Be The Match Registry revealed that haplotypes follow a heavy tail distribution across all ethnicities: for example, 44.65% of the European American haplotypes are represented by only 1 individual. Indeed, our discovery rate of all U.S. European American haplotypes is estimated at 23.45% based upon sampling 3.97% of the population, leaving a large number of unobserved haplotypes. Population coverage, however, is much higher at 99.4% given that 90% of European Americans carry one of the 4.5% most frequent haplotypes. Alleles were found to be less diverse suggesting the current registry represents most alleles in the population. Thus, for HSCT registries, haplotype discovery will remain high with continued recruitment to a very deep level of sampling, but population coverage will not. Finally, we compared the convergence of our power-law versus classical diversity estimators such as Capture recapture, Chao, ACE and Jackknife methods. When fit to the haplotype data, our estimator displayed favorable properties in terms of convergence (with respect to sampling depth) and accuracy (with respect to diversity estimates). This suggests that power-law based estimators offer a valid alternative to classical diversity estimators and may have broad applicability in the field of population genetics.

Exploring approaches for predictive cancer patient digital twins: Opportunities for collaboration and innovation.

We are rapidly approaching a future in which cancer patient digital twins will reach their potential to predict cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in individual patients. This will be realized based on advances in high performance computing, computational modeling, and an expanding repertoire of observational data across multiple scales and modalities. In 2020, the US National Cancer Institute, and the US Department of Energy, through a trans-disciplinary research community at the intersection of advanced computing and cancer research, initiated team science collaborative projects to explore the development and implementation of predictive Cancer Patient Digital Twins. Several diverse pilot projects were launched to provide key insights into important features of this emerging landscape and to determine the requirements for the development and adoption of cancer patient digital twins. Projects included exploring approaches to using a large cohort of digital twins to perform deep phenotyping and plan treatments at the individual level, prototyping self-learning digital twin platforms, using adaptive digital twin approaches to monitor treatment response and resistance, developing methods to integrate and fuse data and observations across multiple scales, and personalizing treatment based on cancer type. Collectively these efforts have yielded increased insights into the opportunities and challenges facing cancer patient digital twin approaches and helped define a path forward. Given the rapidly growing interest in patient digital twins, this manuscript provides a valuable early progress report of several CPDT pilot projects commenced in common, their overall aims, early progress, lessons learned and future directions that will increasingly involve the broader research community.