Wrestling with the complexity of evaluation for organizations at the boundary of science, policy, and practice.

Boundary organizations are situated between science, policy, and practice and have a goal of supporting communication and collaboration among these sectors. They have been promoted as a way to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts by building stronger relationships between scientists, policy makers, industry, and practitioners (Cook et al. 2013). Although their promise has been discussed in theory, the work of and expectations for boundary organizations are less defined in practice. Biodiversity conservation is characterized by complexity, uncertainty, dissent, and tight budgets, so boundary organizations face the challenging task of demonstrating their value to diverse stakeholders. We examined the challenges boundary organizations face when seeking to evaluate their work and thus aimed to encourage more productive conversations about evaluation of boundary organizations and their projects. Although no off-the-shelf solution is available for a given boundary organization, we identified 4 principles that will support effective evaluation for boundary organizations: engage diverse stakeholders, support learning and reflection, assess contribution to change, and align evaluation with assumption and values.

Risk Factors for Type 1 Diabetes Recurrence in Immunosuppressed Recipients of Simultaneous Pancreas-Kidney Transplants.

Patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) who are recipients of pancreas transplants are believed to rarely develop T1D recurrence in the allograft if effectively immunosuppressed. We evaluated a cohort of 223 recipients of simultaneous pancreas-kidney allografts for T1D recurrence and its risk factors. With long-term follow-up, recurrence was observed in approximately 7% of patients. Comparing the therapeutic regimens employed in this cohort over time, lack of induction therapy was associated with recurrence, but this occurs even with the current regimen, which includes induction; there was no influence of maintenance regimens. Longitudinal testing for T1D-associated autoantibodies identified autoantibody positivity, number of autoantibodies, and autoantibody conversion after transplantation as critical risk factors. Autoantibodies to the zinc transporter 8 had the strongest and closest temporal association with recurrence, which was not explained by genetically encoded amino acid sequence donor-recipient mismatches for this autoantigen. Genetic risk factors included the presence of the T1D-predisposing HLA-DR3/DR4 genotype in the recipient and donor-recipient sharing of HLA-DR alleles, especially HLA-DR3. Thus, T1D recurrence is not uncommon and is developing in patients treated with current immunosuppression. The risk factors identified in this study can be assessed in the transplant clinic to identify recurrent T1D and may lead to therapeutic advances.

In antibody-positive first-degree relatives of patients with type 1 diabetes, HLA-A*24 and HLA-B*18, but not HLA-B*39, are predictors of impending diabetes with distinct HLA-DQ interactions.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Secondary type 1 diabetes prevention trials require selection of participants with impending diabetes. HLA-A and -B alleles have been reported to promote disease progression. We investigated whether typing for HLA-B*18 and -B*39 may complement screening for HLA-DQ8, -DQ2 and -A*24 and autoantibodies (Abs) against islet antigen-2 (IA-2) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8) for predicting rapid progression to hyperglycaemia. METHODS: A registry-based group of 288 persistently autoantibody-positive (Ab(+)) offspring/siblings (aged 0-39 years) of known patients (Ab(+) against insulin, GAD, IA-2 and/or ZnT8) were typed for HLA-DQ, -A and -B and monitored from the first Ab(+) sample for development of diabetes within 5 years. RESULTS: Unlike HLA-B*39, HLA-B*18 was associated with accelerated disease progression, but only in HLA-DQ2 carriers (p < 0.006). In contrast, HLA-A*24 promoted progression preferentially in the presence of HLA-DQ8 (p < 0.002). In HLA-DQ2- and/or HLA-DQ8-positive relatives (n = 246), HLA-B*18 predicted impending diabetes (p = 0.015) in addition to HLA-A*24, HLA-DQ2/DQ8 and positivity for IA-2A or ZnT8A (p ≤ 0.004). HLA-B*18 interacted significantly with HLA-DQ2/DQ8 and HLA-A*24 in the presence of IA-2 and/or ZnT8 autoantibodies (p ≤ 0.009). Additional testing for HLA-B*18 and -A*24 significantly improved screening sensitivity for rapid progressors, from 38% to 53%, among relatives at high Ab-inferred risk carrying at least one genetic risk factor. Screening for HLA-B*18 increased sensitivity for progressors, from 17% to 28%, among individuals carrying ≥ 3 risk markers conferring >85% 5 year risk. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These results reinforce the importance of HLA class I alleles in disease progression and quantify their added value for preparing prevention trials.

Screening for insulinoma antigen 2 and zinc transporter 8 autoantibodies: a cost-effective and age-independent strategy to identify rapid progressors to clinical onset among relatives of type 1 diabetic patients.

In first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetic patients, we investigated whether diabetes risk assessment solely based on insulinoma antigen 2 (IA-2) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8) antibody status (IA-2A, respectively, ZnT8A) is as effective as screening for three or four autoantibodies [antibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamate decarboxylase 65 kDa (GAD) glutamate decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) and IA-2A with or without ZnT8A] in identifying children, adolescents and adults who progress rapidly to diabetes (within 5 years). Antibodies were determined by radiobinding assays during follow-up of 6444 siblings and offspring aged 0-39 years at inclusion and recruited consecutively by the Belgian Diabetes Registry. We identified 394 persistently IAA(+) , GADA(+) , IA-2A(+) and/or ZnT8A(+) relatives (6·1%). After a median follow-up time of 52 months, 132 relatives developed type 1 diabetes. In each age category tested (0-9, 10-19 and 20-39 years) progression to diabetes was significantly quicker in the presence of IA-2A and/or ZnT8A than in their joint absence (P < 0·001). Progression rate was age-independent in IA-2A(+) and/or ZnT8A(+) relatives but decreased with age if only GADA and/or IAA were present (P = 0·008). In the age group mainly considered for immune interventions until now (10-39 years), screening for IA-2A and ZnT8A alone identified 78% of the rapid progressors (versus 75% if positive for ≥ 2 antibodies among IAA, GADA, IA-2A and ZnT8A or versus 62% without testing for ZnT8A). Screening for IA-2A and ZnT8A alone allows identification of the majority of rapidly progressing prediabetic siblings and offspring regardless of age and is more cost-effective to select participants for intervention trials than conventional screening.

Ranking and selection of MII oocytes in human ICSI cycles using gene expression levels from associated cumulus cells.

STUDY QUESTION: Can the ranked expression levels of a cohort of cumulus cell (CC) genes be used to select MII oocytes with a potential for blastocyst development and live birth? SUMMARY ANSWER: A ranking method containing four (HAS2, FSHR, VCAN, PR) of the eight genes evaluated in this study for identifying good quality MII oocytes provides a significantly better outcome compared with random selection and is equally as good as using all oocytes for ICSI. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Recent evidence has identified a number of candidate genes in CC that have the potential to serve as markers of oocyte quality; however, a reliable method for selecting MII oocytes with blastocyst and live birth potential remains a challenge. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A group of 25 patients (<38 years old) underwent rFSH-stimulated ICSI treatment with single embryo replacement (SET). A total of 270 cumulus cell-oocyte complexes (COCs) were recovered and assessed. MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Expression levels of eight candidate genes (HAS2, FSHR, SLC2A4, ALCAM, SFRP2, VCAN, NRP1 and PR), corrected for RPL19, were measured in individual CC masses using multiplex QPCR. Expression levels of individual CC masses were assessed and ranked in relation to oocyte developmental indicators (blastocyst formation and live birth). MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: From the 25 women, 19 (76%) had achieved a successful live birth delivery following SET. In this population, the selection of MII oocytes according to relative ranking levels of a subset of CC-expressed genes provided a significantly higher chance of identifying a good quality oocyte compared with selecting MII oocytes randomly (blastocyst: 1× MII oocyte: 52 versus 23%, P = 0.008; 3× MII oocytes: 80 versus 52%, P = 0.002; live birth: 1× MII oocyte: 31 versus 15%, P<0.05, 3× MII oocytes: 60 versus 38%, P < 0.05) and a similar chance to that of using all oocytes available after recovery (blastocyst: 80% versus 96%, P = 0.085, live birth: 60% versus 76%, P = 0.206). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The present method was validated only for young (<38 years) women, with male infertility, who had no signs of androgenicity, PCOS or endometriosis and were free of any chronic disease. This is a retrospective study that requires further validation in an unselected population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Results presented in this study could be used to assist the selection of oocytes with high blastocyst developmental potential in frozen oocyte cycles and for the selection of embryos with high developmental potential as early as 18 h after ICSI (2PN stage) in fresh human IVF cycles. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Funding was provided by Fertility Associates Ltd and the New Zealand Government. The authors declare there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported.

Age-matched dendritic cell subpopulations reference values in childhood.

Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most potent antigen-presenting cells and are the key link between the innate and adaptive immune response. Only a few reports with study populations of up to 50 individuals have been published with age-based reference values for DC subpopulations in healthy children. Therefore, we aimed to establish reference ranges in a larger study population of 100 healthy children, which allowed age-matched subgroups. Most previous studies were performed using a dual-platform approach. In this study, a single-platform approach in a lyse no-wash procedure was used. DC subpopulations were defined as follows: CD45(+) CD85k(+) HLA-DR(+) CD14(-) CD16(-) CD33(+) cells as myeloid DCs (mDCs) and CD45(+) CD85k(+) HLA-DR(+) CD14(-) CD16(-) CD123(+) cells as plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs). Reference ranges were established using a semi-parametric regression of age-matched absolute and relative DC counts. We found a significant decline with increasing age in the medians of mDCs (P = 0.0003) and pDCs per µl peripheral blood (PB) (P = 0.004) and in the 50%, 90% and 95% reference ranges. We also identified significantly lower absolute cell counts of mDCs per µl PB in girls than in boys for all age groups (P = 0.0015). Due to the larger paediatric study population and single-platform approach, this study may give a more precise overview of the normal age-matched development of DC subpopulations and may provide a basis for analyzing abnormal DC counts in different illnesses or therapies such as post stem cell transplantation.

Obesity and impaired prohormone processing associated with mutations in the human prohormone convertase 1 gene.

Human obesity has an inherited component, but in contrast to rodent obesity, precise genetic defects have yet to be defined. A mutation of carboxypeptidase E (CPE), an enzyme active in the processing and sorting of prohormones, causes obesity in the fat/fat mouse. We have previously described a women with extreme childhood obesity (Fig. 1), abnormal glucose homeostasis, hypogonadotrophic hypogonadism, hypocortisolism and elevated plasma proinsulin and pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC) concentrations but a very low insulin level, suggestive of a defective prohormone processing by the endopeptidase, prohormone convertase 1 (PC1; ref. 4). We now report this proband to be a compound heterozygote for mutations in PC1. Gly-->Arg483 prevents processing of proPC1 and leads to its retention in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). A-->C+4 of the intro-5 donor splice site causes skipping of exon 5 leading to loss of 26 residues, a frameshift and creation of a premature stop codon within the catalytic domain. PC1 acts proximally to CPE in the pathway of post-translational processing of prohormones and neuropeptides. In view of the similarity between the proband and the fat/fat mouse phenotype, we infer that molecular defects in prohormone conversion may represent a generic mechanism for obesity, common to humans and rodents.

An important minority of prediabetic first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetic patients derives from seroconversion to persistent autoantibody positivity after 10 years of age.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The appearance of autoantibodies (Abs) before diabetes onset has mainly been studied in young children. However, most patients develop type 1 diabetes after the age of 15 years. In first-degree relatives aged under 40 years, we investigated the frequency of seroconversion to (persistent) Ab positivity, progression to diabetes and baseline characteristics of seroconverters according to age. METHODS: Abs against insulin (IAA), glutamate decarboxylase (GADA), insulinoma-associated protein 2 (IA-2A) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) were measured during follow-up of 7,170 first-degree relatives. RESULTS: We identified 379 (5.3%) relatives with positivity for IAA, GADA, IA-2A and/or ZnT8A (Ab(+)) at first sampling and 224 (3.1%) at a later time point. Most seroconversions occurred after the age of 10 years (63%). During follow-up, Abs persisted more often in relatives initially Ab(+) (76%) than in seroconverters (53%; p < 0.001). In both groups diabetes developed at a similar pace and almost exclusively with Ab persistence (136 of 139 prediabetic individuals). For both groups, progression was more rapid if Abs appeared before the age of 10 years. Baseline characteristics at seroconversion did not vary significantly according to age. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Seroconversion to (persistent) Ab(+) occurs regardless of age. Although the progression rate to diabetes is higher under age 10 years, later seroconverters (up to age 40 years) have similar characteristics when compared with age-matched initially Ab(+) relatives and generate an important minority of prediabetic relatives, warranting their identification and, eventually, enrolment in prevention trials.

Genetic association of zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8) autoantibodies in type 1 diabetes cases.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Autoantibodies to zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) are associated with risk of type 1 diabetes. Apart from the SLC30A8 gene itself, little is known about the genetic basis of ZnT8A. We hypothesise that other loci in addition to SLC30A8 are associated with ZnT8A. METHODS: The levels of ZnT8A were measured in 2,239 British type 1 diabetic individuals diagnosed before age 17 years, with a median duration of diabetes of 4 years. Cases were tested at over 775,000 loci genome wide (including 53 type 1 diabetes associated regions) for association with positivity for ZnT8A. ZnT8A were also measured in an independent dataset of 855 family members with type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: Only FCRL3 on chromosome 1q23.1 and the HLA class I region were associated with positivity for ZnT8A. rs7522061T>C was the most associated single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the FCRL3 region (p = 1.13 × 10(-16)). The association was confirmed in the family dataset (p ≤ 9.20 × 10(-4)). rs9258750A>G was the most associated variant in the HLA region (p = 2.06 × 10(-9) and p = 0.0014 in family cases). The presence of ZnT8A was not associated with HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1, HLA-A, HLA-B or HLA-C (p > 0.05). Unexpectedly, the two loci associated with the presence of ZnT8A did not alter risk of having type 1 diabetes, and the 53 type 1 diabetes risk loci did not influence positivity for ZnT8A, despite them being disease specific. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: ZnT8A are not primary pathogenic factors in type 1 diabetes. Nevertheless, ZnT8A testing in combination with other autoantibodies facilitates disease prediction, despite the biomarker not being under the same genetic control as the disease.

Zinc transporter (ZnT)8(186-194) is an immunodominant CD8+ T cell epitope in HLA-A2+ type 1 diabetic patients.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Anti-zinc transporter (ZnT)8 autoantibodies are commonly detected in type 1 diabetic patients. We hypothesised that ZnT8 is also recognised by CD8(+) T cells and aimed to identify HLA-A2 (A*02:01)-restricted epitope targets. METHODS: Candidate epitopes were selected by ZnT8 plasmid DNA immunisation of HLA-A2/DQ8 transgenic mice and tested for T cell recognition in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of type 1 diabetic, type 2 diabetic and healthy participants by IFN-γ enzyme-linked immunospot. RESULTS: White HLA-A2(+) adults (83%) and children (60%) with type 1 diabetes displayed ZnT8-reactive CD8(+) T cells that recognised a single ZnT8(186-194) (VAANIVLTV) epitope. This ZnT8(186-194)-reactive fraction accounted for 50% to 53% of total ZnT8-specific CD8(+) T cells. Another sequence, ZnT8(153-161) (VVTGVLVYL), was recognised in 20% and 25% of type 1 diabetic adults and children, respectively. Both epitopes were type 1 diabetes-specific, being marginally recognised by type 2 diabetic and healthy participants (7-12% for ZnT8(186-194), 0% for ZnT8(153-161)). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: ZnT8-reactive CD8(+) T cells are predominantly directed against the ZnT8(186-194) epitope and are detected in a majority of type 1 diabetic patients. The exceptional immunodominance of ZnT8(186-194) may point to common environmental triggers precipitating beta cell autoimmunity.

Workshop Report: concepts and methods in the economics of nutrition--gateways to better economic evaluation of nutrition interventions.

Improving health through better nutrition of the population may contribute to enhanced efficiency and sustainability of healthcare systems. A recent expert meeting investigated in detail a number of methodological aspects related to the discipline of nutrition economics. The role of nutrition in health maintenance and in the prevention of non-communicable diseases is now generally recognised. However, the main scope of those seeking to contain healthcare expenditures tends to focus on the management of existing chronic diseases. Identifying additional relevant dimensions to measure and the context of use will become increasingly important in selecting and developing outcome measurements for nutrition interventions. The translation of nutrition-related research data into public health guidance raises the challenging issue of carrying out more pragmatic trials in many areas where these would generate the most useful evidence for health policy decision-making. Nutrition exemplifies all the types of interventions and policy which need evaluating across the health field. There is a need to start actively engaging key stakeholders in order to collect data and to widen health technology assessment approaches for achieving a policy shift from evidence-based medicine to evidence-based decision-making in the field of nutrition.

Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing epidural, patient-controlled intravenous morphine, and continuous wound infiltration for postoperative pain management after open abdominal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Continuous wound infiltration (CWI), i.v. patient-controlled analgesia (i.v.-PCA), and epidural analgesia (EDA) are analgesic techniques commonly used for pain relief after open abdominal surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these techniques. METHODS: A decision analytic model was developed, including values retrieved from clinical trials and from an observational prospective cohort of 85 patients. Efficacy criteria were based on pain at rest (VAS ≤ 30/100 mm at 24 h). Resource use and costs were evaluated from medical record measurements and published data. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed. RESULTS: When taking into account all resources consumed, the CWI arm (€ 6460) is economically dominant when compared with i.v.-PCA (€ 7273) and EDA (€ 7500). The proportion of patients successfully controlled for their postoperative pain management are 77.4%, 53.9%, and 72.9% for CWI, i.v.-PCA, and EDA, respectively, demonstrating the CWI procedure to be both economically and clinically dominant. PSA reported that CWI remains cost saving in 70.4% of cases in comparison with EDA and in 59.2% of cases when compared with PCA. CONCLUSIONS: Device-related costs of using CWI for pain management after abdominal laparotomy are partly counterbalanced by a reduction in resource consumption. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that CWI is the dominant treatment strategy for managing postoperative pain (i.e. more effective and less costly) in comparison with i.v.-PCA. When compared with EDA, CWI is less costly with almost equivalent efficacy. This economic evaluation may be useful for clinicians to design algorithms for pain management after major abdominal surgery.

Psychological impact and acceptability of magnetic resonance imaging and X-ray mammography: the MARIBS Study.

BACKGROUND: As part of the Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Breast Screening (MARIBS), Study women with a family history of breast cancer were assessed psychologically to determine the relative psychological impact and acceptability of annual screening using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and conventional X-ray mammography (XRM). METHODS: Women were assessed psychologically at baseline (4 weeks before MRI and XRM), immediately before, and immediately after, both MRI and XRM, and at follow-up (6 weeks after the scans). RESULTS: Overall, both procedures were found to be acceptable with high levels of satisfaction (MRI, 96.3% and XRM, 97.7%; NS) and low levels of psychological morbidity throughout, particularly at 6-week follow-up. Low levels of self-reported distress were reported for both procedures (MRI, 13.5% and XRM, 7.8%), although MRI was more distressing (P=0.005). Similarly, higher anticipatory anxiety was reported before MRI than before XRM (P=0.003). Relative to XRM, MRI-related distress was more likely to persist at 6 weeks after the scans in the form of intrusive MRI-related thoughts (P=0.006) and total MRI-related distress (P=0.014). More women stated that they intended to return for XRM (96.3%) than for MRI (88%; P<0.0005). These effects were most marked for the first year of screening, although they were also statistically significant in subsequent years. CONCLUSION: Given the proven benefits of MRI in screening for breast cancer in this population, these data point to the urgent need to provide timely information and support to women undergoing MRI.

Development of a novel autoantibody assay for autoimmune gastritis in type 1 diabetic individuals.

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune atrophic body gastritis (ABG) and pernicious anaemia are prototypical, organ-specific autoimmune diseases whose prevalence in the general population is 2.0 vs 2 and 0.15-1%, respectively. The incidence of disease increases with age and is frequently associated with other autoimmune disorders such as type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Early diagnosis of ABG/pernicious anaemia is essential for the prevention and/or treatment before manifestations of chronic disease become irreversible. Parietal cell autoantibody detection via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay is currently the most widely used biomarker of disease with diagnosis confirmed by subsequent immunohistochemistry via biopsy. METHODS: To improve the assay we designed a specific, molecularly defined radioimmunoprecipitation assay for early detection of ABG, targeting its major antigen, the gastric H+/K+ ATPase 4A subunit ATP4A. RESULTS: The major antigenic domain in ATP4A was tested against a panel of sera from new onset patients with T1DM which tested positive for the gold standard T1DM autoantibodies (IAA, IA2A, GAD65A, and ZnT8A). Significant immunoreactivity to ATP4A was measured (25%) while 6% of first-degree relatives of subjects with T1DM who were sero-negative for T1DM autoantigens were positive for ATP4A autoantibodies. ATP4A antibody prevalence increased with age of onset of T1DM, which is atypical of other T1DM autoantibodies. Immunoreactivity to ATP4A, unlike that of T1DM antigens, demonstrates a significant gender bias in newly diagnosed individuals with T1DM. CONCLUSION: Although the utility of the assay as a biomarker for T1DM is likely limited, it may serve as an improved indicator of ABG.

Modelling bounded health scores with censored skew-normal distributions.

Health care interventions that use quality of life or health scores often provide data which are skewed and bounded. The scores are typically formed by adding up numerical responses to a number of questions. Different questions might have different weights, but the scores will be bounded, and are often scaled to the range 0-100. If improvement in health over time is measured, scores will tend to cluster near the 'healthy' or 'good' boundary as time progresses, leading to a skew distribution. Further, some patients will drop-out as time progresses, hence the scores reflect a selected population.We fit models based on the skew-normal distribution to data from a randomized controlled trial of treatments for sprained ankles, in which scores were recorded at baseline and at 1, 3 and 9 months after injury. We consider the extent to which skewness in the data can be explained by clustering at the boundary via a comparison between a censored normal and a censored skew-normal model.As this analysis is based on the complete data only, a formula for the bias of the treatment effects due to informative drop-out is given. This allows us to assess under what conditions the conclusions drawn from the complete data might be either reinforced or reversed, when the informative drop-out process is taken into account.

Nutrition economics - characterising the economic and health impact of nutrition.

There is a new merging of health economics and nutrition disciplines to assess the impact of diet on health and disease prevention and to characterise the health and economic aspects of specific changes in nutritional behaviour and nutrition recommendations. A rationale exists for developing the field of nutrition economics which could offer a better understanding of both nutrition, in the context of having a significant influence on health outcomes, and economics, in order to estimate the absolute and relative monetary impact of health measures. For this purpose, an expert meeting assessed questions aimed at clarifying the scope and identifying the key issues that should be taken into consideration in developing nutrition economics as a discipline that could potentially address important questions. We propose a first multidisciplinary outline for understanding the principles and particular characteristics of this emerging field. We summarise here the concepts and the observations of workshop participants and propose a basic setting for nutrition economics and health outcomes research as a novel discipline to support nutrition, health economics and health policy development in an evidence and health-benefit-based manner.

Fetal growth and birthweight standards as screening tools: methods for evaluating performance.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss different methods for evaluating fetal growth and population-based birthweight standards relevant to different uses: either in antenatal care or in epidemiology. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Routinely collected data in Scotland. POPULATION: A total of 540,849 singletons born after 24 weeks between 1980 and 2003. METHODS: The performance of a fetal growth standard and a population-based birthweight standard are compared in two ways. First, we consider the accuracy of estimated risks of stillbirth at any point during the remaining pregnancy, a measure that is relevant in antenatal care. Second, the rates of stillbirth at each gestation, which are measures relevant in epidemiology, are compared with the actual rates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standard measures of screening and diagnostic performance: sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. RESULTS: In clinical care, the evidence points towards using fetal growth standards: sensitivity at term is about 30%, increasing to 43% for preterm births (24-31 weeks of gestation), compared with about 29% across all ages under the birthweight standard. Positive predictive values are about 1% across gestations. For epidemiology, the evidence is not so clear-cut: preterm, the population birthweight standard has higher sensitivity and specificity, but this is not the case in the full-term weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of fetal growth and birthweight standards should be evaluated in different ways, depending on whether they are intended for use in antenatal care or in epidemiological investigations.

Predictive power of screening for antibodies against insulinoma-associated protein 2 beta (IA-2beta) and zinc transporter-8 to select first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetic patients with risk of rapid progression to clinical onset of the disease: implications for prevention trials.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated whether screening for insulinoma-associated protein (IA-2) beta (IA-2beta) autoantibodies (IA-2betaA) and zinc transporter-8 (ZnT8) autoantibodies (ZnT8A) improves identification of first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetic patients with a high 5-year disease risk, which to date has been based on assays for insulin autoantibodies (IAA), GAD autoantibodies (GADA) and IA-2 autoantibodies (IA-2A). METHODS: IA-2betaA and ZnT8A (using a ZnT8 carboxy-terminal hybrid construct, CW-CR, carrying 325Arg and 325Trp) were determined by radiobinding assay in 409 IAA(+), GADA(+) and/or IA-2A(+) siblings or offspring (<40 years) of type 1 diabetic patients consecutively recruited by the Belgian Diabetes Registry. The median (interquartile range) age of the first-degree relatives was 12 (6-19) years. RESULTS: Of the first-degree relatives, 24% were IA-2A(+) (n = 97), 14% (n = 59) IA-2betaA(+) and 20% (n = 80) ZnT8A(+). IA-2betaA and ZnT8A were significantly (p < 0.001) associated with IA-2A and prediabetes (n = 86); in IA-2A(-) first-degree relatives (n = 312) the presence of IA-2betaA and ZnT8A was associated with an increased progression rate to diabetes (p < 0.001). Positivity for IA-2A and/or ZnT8A emerged as the most sensitive combination of two markers to identify first-degree relatives with a 5-year progression rate to diabetes of 45% (survival analysis) and as strongest predictor of diabetes (Cox regression analysis). Omission of first-degree relatives protected by HLA-DQ genotypes or maternal diabetes reduced the group to be followed from n = 409 to n = 246 (40%) with minor loss in the number of prediabetic IA-2A(+) or ZnT8A(+) first-degree relatives identified (n = 3). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: IA-2A(+) and/or ZnT8A(+) first-degree relatives may be the participants of choice in future secondary prevention trials with immunointervention in relatives of type 1 diabetic patients.

Mechanical supports for acute, severe ankle sprain: a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Severe ankle sprains are a common presentation in emergency departments in the UK. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of three different mechanical supports (Aircast brace, Bledsoe boot, or 10-day below-knee cast) compared with that of a double-layer tubular compression bandage in promoting recovery after severe ankle sprains. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre randomised trial with blinded assessment of outcome. 584 participants with severe ankle sprain were recruited between April, 2003, and July, 2005, from eight emergency departments across the UK. Participants were provided with a mechanical support within the first 3 days of attendance by a trained health-care professional, and given advice on reducing swelling and pain. Functional outcomes were measured over 9 months. The primary outcome was quality of ankle function at 3 months, measured using the Foot and Ankle Score; analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN37807450. RESULTS: Patients who received the below-knee cast had a more rapid recovery than those given the tubular compression bandage. We noted clinically important benefits at 3 months in quality of ankle function with the cast compared with tubular compression bandage (mean difference 9%; 95% CI 2.4-15.0), as well as in pain, symptoms, and activity. The mean difference in quality of ankle function between Aircast brace and tubular compression bandage was 8%; 95% CI 1.8-14.2, but there were little differences for pain, symptoms, and activity. Bledsoe boots offered no benefit over tubular compression bandage, which was the least effective treatment throughout the recovery period. There were no significant differences between tubular compression bandage and the other treatments at 9 months. Side-effects were rare with no discernible differences between treatments. Reported events (all treatments combined) were cellulitis (two cases), pulmonary embolus (two cases), and deep-vein thrombosis (three cases). INTERPRETATION: A short period of immobilisation in a below-knee cast or Aircast results in faster recovery than if the patient is only given tubular compression bandage. We recommend below-knee casts because they show the widest range of benefit. FUNDING: National Co-ordinating Centre for Health Technology Assessment.

Meta-regression with partial information on summary trial or patient characteristics.

We present a model for meta-regression in the presence of missing information on some of the study level covariates, obtaining inferences using Bayesian methods. In practice, when confronted with missing covariate data in a meta-regression, it is common to carry out a complete case or available case analysis. We propose to use the full observed data, modelling the joint density as a factorization of a meta-regression model and a conditional factorization of the density for the covariates. With the inclusion of several covariates, inter-relations between these covariates are modelled. Under this joint likelihood-based approach, it is shown that the lesser assumption of the covariates being Missing At Random is imposed, instead of the more usual Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) assumption. The model is easily programmable in WinBUGS, and we examine, through the analysis of two real data sets, sensitivity and robustness of results to the MCAR assumption.