Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (ß coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

High microRNA-145 plasma levels are associated with decreased risk of future incident venous thromboembolism: the HUNT study.

ABSTRACT: MicroRNA-145 (miR-145) has been reported to downregulate the expression of tissue factor and factor XI in vitro and decrease venous thrombus formation in animal models. However, the association between miR-145 and risk of future venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the general population remains unknown. We investigated the association between plasma levels of miR-145 and risk of future VTE in a case-cohort study. Incident VTE cases (n = 510) and a subcohort (n = 1890) were derived from the third survey of the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT3), a population-based cohort. The expression levels of miR-145 were measured in plasma samples obtained at baseline. The study population was divided into quartiles based on miR-145 levels in participants in the subcohort, and weighted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Plasma levels of miR-145 were inversely associated with VTE risk. Participants with miR-145 levels in the highest quartile had a 49% lower risk of VTE (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.38-0.68) than those with miR-145 in the lowest quartile in age- and sex-adjusted analysis, and the inverse association was most pronounced for unprovoked VTE (HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.25-0.61). Risk estimates remained virtually the same after further adjustment for body mass index, and cancer and arterial cardiovascular disease at baseline. In conclusion, elevated expression levels of miR-145 in plasma were associated with decreased risk of future incident VTE. The protective role of miR-145 against VTE is consistent with previous experimental data and suggests that miR-145 has the potential to be a target for VTE prevention.

Exome sequencing and characterization of 49,960 individuals in the UK Biobank.

The UK Biobank is a prospective study of 502,543 individuals, combining extensive phenotypic and genotypic data with streamlined access for researchers around the world1. Here we describe the release of exome-sequence data for the first 49,960 study participants, revealing approximately 4 million coding variants (of which around 98.6% have a frequency of less than 1%). The data include 198,269 autosomal predicted loss-of-function (LOF) variants, a more than 14-fold increase compared to the imputed sequence. Nearly all genes (more than 97%) had at least one carrier with a LOF variant, and most genes (more than 69%) had at least ten carriers with a LOF variant. We illustrate the power of characterizing LOF variants in this population through association analyses across 1,730 phenotypes. In addition to replicating established associations, we found novel LOF variants with large effects on disease traits, including PIEZO1 on varicose veins, COL6A1 on corneal resistance, MEPE on bone density, and IQGAP2 and GMPR on blood cell traits. We further demonstrate the value of exome sequencing by surveying the prevalence of pathogenic variants of clinical importance, and show that 2% of this population has a medically actionable variant. Furthermore, we characterize the penetrance of cancer in carriers of pathogenic BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants. Exome sequences from the first 49,960 participants highlight the promise of genome sequencing in large population-based studies and are now accessible to the scientific community.

Genome-wide meta-analysis implicates variation affecting mast cell biology in urticaria.

BACKGROUND: Urticaria is characterized by inappropriate mast cell degranulation leading to the development of wheals and/or angioedema. Twin and family studies indicate that there is a substantial heritable component to urticaria risk. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to identify genomic loci at which common genetic variation influences urticaria susceptibility. METHODS: Genome-wide association studies of urticaria (including all subtypes) from 3 European cohorts (UK Biobank, FinnGen, and the Trøndelag Health Study [HUNT]) were combined through statistical meta-analysis (14,306 urticaria cases and 650,664 controls). Cases were identified via electronic health care records from primary and/or secondary care. To identify putative causal variants and genes, statistical fine-mapping, colocalization, and interrogation of publicly available single-cell transcriptome sequencing resources were performed. RESULTS: Genome-wide significant associations (P < 5 × 10-8) were identified at 6 independent loci. These included 2 previously reported association signals at 1q44 and the human leucocyte antigen region on chromosome 6. Genes with expected or established roles in mast cell biology were associated with the 4 other genome-wide association signals (GCSAML, FCER1A, TPSAB1, and CBLB). Colocalization of association signals consistent with the presence of shared causal variants was observed between urticaria susceptibility and increased expression of GCSAML (posterior probability of colocalization [PPcoloc] = 0.89) and FCER1A (PPcoloc = 0.91) in skin. CONCLUSION: Common genetic variation influencing the risk of developing urticaria was identified at 6 genomic loci. The relationship between genes with roles in mast cell biology and several association signals implicates genetic variability of specific components of mast cell function in the development of urticaria.

A genome-wide meta-analysis of palmoplantar pustulosis implicates TH2 responses and cigarette smoking in disease pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND: Palmoplantar pustulosis (PPP) is an inflammatory skin disorder that mostly affects smokers and manifests with painful pustular eruptions on the palms and soles. Although the disease can present with concurrent plaque psoriasis, TNF and IL-17/IL-23 inhibitors show limited efficacy. There is therefore a pressing need to uncover PPP disease drivers and therapeutic targets. OBJECTIVES: We sought to identify genetic determinants of PPP and investigate whether cigarette smoking contributes to disease pathogenesis. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 3 North-European cohorts (n = 1,456 PPP cases and 402,050 controls). We then used the scGWAS program to investigate the cell-type specificity of the association signals. We also undertook genetic correlation analyses to examine the similarities between PPP and other immune-mediated diseases. Finally, we applied Mendelian randomization to analyze the causal relationship between cigarette smoking and PPP. RESULTS: We found that PPP is not associated with the main genetic determinants of plaque psoriasis. Conversely, we identified genome-wide significant associations with the FCGR3A/FCGR3B and CCHCR1 loci. We also observed 13 suggestive (P < 5 × 10-6) susceptibility regions, including the IL4/IL13 interval. Accordingly, we demonstrated a significant genetic correlation between PPP and TH2-mediated diseases such as atopic dermatitis and ulcerative colitis. We also found that genes mapping to PPP-associated intervals were preferentially expressed in dendritic cells and often implicated in T-cell activation pathways. Finally, we undertook a Mendelian randomization analysis, which supported a causal role of cigarette smoking in PPP. CONCLUSIONS: The first genome-wide association study of PPP points to a pathogenic role for deregulated TH2 responses and cigarette smoking.

A genome-wide association study of susceptibility to upper urinary tract infections.

BACKGROUND: Our goal was to identify genetic and modifiable risk factors for upper urinary tract infections (UTIs). METHODS: We used data from UK Biobank, The Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), and Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI) to conduct genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and sex-stratified analyses on upper UTI. Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted to examine potential causal relationships between cardiometabolic risk factors and upper UTIs. RESULTS: One genome-wide significant (P ≤ 5E-08) locus was associated with the susceptibility to upper UTI, located near TSN in the female-only analysis. Additionally, we identified suggestive (P ≤ 5E-06) loci near DNAI3 for the females, SCAMP1-AS1 for the males, and near TSN, LINC00603, and HLA-DQA2 for both sexes. In MR analyses, higher genetically predicted lifetime smoking scores were associated with an increased risk of developing upper UTI for females and both sexes (OR of 4.84, P = 4.50E-06 and OR of 2.79, P = 3.02E-05, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We found that genetic variants near TSN was associated with the risk of upper UTIs among females. In addition, we found several genetic loci with suggestive associations with the risk of upper UTIs. Finally, MR analyses found smoking to be a potential causal risk factor for upper UTIs.

A fast linkage method for population GWAS cohorts with related individuals.

Linkage analysis, a class of methods for detecting co-segregation of genomic segments and traits in families, was used to map disease-causing genes for decades before genotyping arrays and dense SNP genotyping enabled genome-wide association studies in population samples. Population samples often contain related individuals, but the segregation of alleles within families is rarely used because traditional linkage methods are computationally inefficient for larger datasets. Here, we describe Population Linkage, a novel application of Haseman-Elston regression as a method of moments estimator of variance components and their standard errors. We achieve additional computational efficiency by using modern methods for detection of IBD segments and variance component estimation, efficient preprocessing of input data, and minimizing redundant numerical calculations. We also refined variance component models to account for the biases in population-scale methods for IBD segment detection. We ran Population Linkage on four blood lipid traits in over 70,000 individuals from the HUNT and SardiNIA studies, successfully detecting 25 known genetic signals. One notable linkage signal that appeared in both was for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels in the region near the gene APOE (LOD = 29.3, variance explained = 4.1%). This is the region where the missense variants rs7412 and rs429358, which together make up the ε2, ε3, and ε4 alleles each account for 2.4% and 0.8% of variation in circulating LDL cholesterol. Our results show the potential for linkage analysis and other large-scale applications of method of moments variance components estimation.

Regulatory variants in TCF7L2 are associated with thoracic aortic aneurysm.

Thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) is characterized by dilation of the aortic root or ascending/descending aorta. TAA is a heritable disease that can be potentially life threatening. While 10%-20% of TAA cases are caused by rare, pathogenic variants in single genes, the origin of the majority of TAA cases remains unknown. A previous study implicated common variants in FBN1 with TAA disease risk. Here, we report a genome-wide scan of 1,351 TAA-affected individuals and 18,295 control individuals from the Cardiovascular Health Improvement Project and Michigan Genomics Initiative at the University of Michigan. We identified a genome-wide significant association with TAA for variants within the third intron of TCF7L2 following replication with meta-analysis of four additional independent cohorts. Common variants in this locus are the strongest known genetic risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Although evidence indicates the presence of different causal variants for TAA and type 2 diabetes at this locus, we observed an opposite direction of effect. The genetic association for TAA colocalizes with an aortic eQTL of TCF7L2, suggesting a functional relationship. These analyses predict an association of higher expression of TCF7L2 with TAA disease risk. In vitro, we show that upregulation of TCF7L2 is associated with BCL2 repression promoting vascular smooth muscle cell apoptosis, a key driver of TAA disease.

Association of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists with serious liver events among patients with type 2 diabetes: A Scandinavian cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Clinical trials suggest that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may have beneficial effects on NAFLD, but the impact on hard hepatic end points is unknown. We assessed the association between the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists and the risk of serious liver events in routine clinical practice. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Cohort study using data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2007-2020, including 91,479 initiators of GLP-1 receptor agonists and 244,004 initiators of the active comparator, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, without a history of chronic liver disease other than NAFLD/NASH. The primary outcome was serious liver events: a composite of incident compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and HCC. Secondary outcomes were the individual components of the primary outcome. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs, using propensity score weighting to control for confounding. Users of GLP-1 receptor agonists had 608 serious liver events (adjusted incidence rate: 16.9 events per 10,000 person-years), compared with 1770 events among users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (19.2 events per 10,000 person-years). The adjusted HR was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.97), and the rate difference was -2.1 (-4.4 to 0.1) events per 10,000 person-years. In secondary outcome analyses, the adjusted HR was 0.85 (0.75 to 0.97) for compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and 1.05 (0.80 to 1.39) for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: The use of GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a significantly reduced risk of serious liver events, driven by a reduction of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

Cross-Ancestry Investigation of Venous Thromboembolism Genomic Predictors.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a life-threatening vascular event with environmental and genetic determinants. Recent VTE genome-wide association studies (GWAS) meta-analyses involved nearly 30 000 VTE cases and identified up to 40 genetic loci associated with VTE risk, including loci not previously suspected to play a role in hemostasis. The aim of our research was to expand discovery of new genetic loci associated with VTE by using cross-ancestry genomic resources. METHODS: We present new cross-ancestry meta-analyzed GWAS results involving up to 81 669 VTE cases from 30 studies, with replication of novel loci in independent populations and loci characterization through in silico genomic interrogations. RESULTS: In our genetic discovery effort that included 55 330 participants with VTE (47 822 European, 6320 African, and 1188 Hispanic ancestry), we identified 48 novel associations, of which 34 were replicated after correction for multiple testing. In our combined discovery-replication analysis (81 669 VTE participants) and ancestry-stratified meta-analyses (European, African, and Hispanic), we identified another 44 novel associations, which are new candidate VTE-associated loci requiring replication. In total, across all GWAS meta-analyses, we identified 135 independent genomic loci significantly associated with VTE risk. A genetic risk score of the significantly associated loci in Europeans identified a 6-fold increase in risk for those in the top 1% of scores compared with those with average scores. We also identified 31 novel transcript associations in transcriptome-wide association studies and 8 novel candidate genes with protein quantitative-trait locus Mendelian randomization analyses. In silico interrogations of hemostasis and hematology traits and a large phenome-wide association analysis of the 135 GWAS loci provided insights to biological pathways contributing to VTE, with some loci contributing to VTE through well-characterized coagulation pathways and others providing new data on the role of hematology traits, particularly platelet function. Many of the replicated loci are outside of known or currently hypothesized pathways to thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses identified new loci associated with VTE. These findings highlight new pathways to thrombosis and provide novel molecules that may be useful in the development of improved antithrombosis treatments.

Separating the genetics of childhood and adult obesity: a validation study of genetic scores for body mass index in adolescence and adulthood in the HUNT Study.

From a life-course perspective, genetic and environmental factors driving childhood obesity may have a lasting influence on health later in life. However, how obesity trajectories vary throughout the life-course remains unknown. Recently, Richardson et al. created powerful early life and adult gene scores for body mass index (BMI) in a comprehensive attempt to separate childhood and adult obesity. The childhood score was derived using questionnaire-based data administered to adults aged 40-69 regarding their relative body size at age 10, making it prone to recall and misclassification bias. We therefore attempted to validate the childhood and adult scores using measured BMI data in adolescence and adulthood among 66 963 individuals from the HUNT Study in Norway from 1963 to 2019. The predictive performance of the childhood score was better in adolescence and early adulthood, whereas the predictive performance of the adult score was better in adulthood. In the age group 12-15.9 years, the variance explained by the childhood polygenic risk score (PRS) was 6.7% versus 2.4% for the adult PRS. In the age group 24-29.9 years, the variance explained by the adult PRS was 3.9% versus 3.6% for the childhood PRS. Our findings support that genetic factors driving BMI differ at young age and in adulthood. Within the framework of multivariable Mendelian randomization, the validated childhood gene score can now be used to determine the consequence of childhood obesity on later disease.

Genome-wide association study of cardiac troponin I in the general population.

Circulating cardiac troponin proteins are associated with structural heart disease and predict incident cardiovascular disease in the general population. However, the genetic contribution to cardiac troponin I (cTnI) concentrations and its causal effect on cardiovascular phenotypes are unclear. We combine data from two large population-based studies, the Trøndelag Health Study and the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, and perform a genome-wide association study of high-sensitivity cTnI concentrations with 48 115 individuals. We further use two-sample Mendelian randomization to investigate the causal effects of circulating cTnI on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and heart failure (HF). We identified 12 genetic loci (8 novel) associated with cTnI concentrations. Associated protein-altering variants highlighted putative functional genes: CAND2, HABP2, ANO5, APOH, FHOD3, TNFAIP2, KLKB1 and LMAN1. Phenome-wide association tests in 1688 phecodes and 83 continuous traits in UK Biobank showed associations between a genetic risk score for cTnI and cardiac arrhythmias, metabolic and anthropometric measures. Using two-sample Mendelian randomization, we confirmed the non-causal role of cTnI in AMI (5948 cases, 355 246 controls). We found indications for a causal role of cTnI in HF (47 309 cases and 930 014 controls), but this was not supported by secondary analyses using left ventricular mass as outcome (18 257 individuals). Our findings clarify the biology underlying the heritable contribution to circulating cTnI and support cTnI as a non-causal biomarker for AMI in the general population. Using genetically informed methods for causal inference helps inform the role and value of measuring cTnI in the general population.

Colorectal cancer detected by liquid biopsy 2 years prior to clinical diagnosis in the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is often diagnosed in advanced stages. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) has been proposed as an early diagnostic biomarker. However, as a screening tool, ctDNA has mainly been studied in selected populations at the time of clinical diagnosis. The aim of this study was to detect CRC by known ctDNA markers up to 2 years prior to clinical diagnosis. METHODS: In this case-control study, methylated ctDNA markers were detected in plasma samples from 106 healthy controls and 106 individuals diagnosed with CRC within 24 months following participation in The Trøndelag Health Study. RESULTS: The most specific single markers were BMP3, FLI1, IKZF1, SFRP1, SFRP2, NPTX2, SLC8A1 and VIM (specificity >70%). When combining these into a panel, the CRC sensitivity was 43% (95% CI 42.7-43.4) and the CRC specificity was 86% (95% CI 85.7-86.2). The findings were reproduced in an independent validation set of samples. CONCLUSIONS: Detection of known methylated ctDNA markers of CRC is possible up to 2 years prior to the clinical diagnosis in an unselected population resembling the screening setting. This study supports the hypothesis that some patients could be diagnosed earlier, if ctDNA detection was part of the CRC screening programme.

Use of DPP4 Inhibitors and GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and Risk of Intestinal Obstruction: Scandinavian Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Concerns have been raised that the incretin-based diabetes drugs dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may increase the risk of intestinal obstruction. We aimed to assess the association between use of DPP4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists and the risk of intestinal obstruction. METHODS: Using data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2013-2021, we conducted 2 cohort studies, one for DPP4 inhibitors and one for GLP-1 receptor agonists, to investigate the risk of intestinal obstruction as compared with an active comparator drug class (sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 [SGLT2] inhibitors). RESULTS: Among 19,0321 new users of DPP4 inhibitors (median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up time, 1.3 [0.6-2.6] years) and 139,315 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (median [IQR] follow-up time, 0.8 [0.4-1.7] years), 919 intestinal obstruction events occurred. Use of DPP4 inhibitors, as compared with SGLT2 inhibitors, was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of intestinal obstruction (adjusted incidence rate, 2.0 vs 1.8 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.34). Among 121,254 new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists (median [standard deviation] follow-up time, 0.9 [0.4-1.9] years) and 185,027 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (median [IQR] follow-up time, 0.8 [0.4-1.8] years), 557 intestinal obstruction events occurred. Use of GLP-1 receptor agonists was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of intestinal obstruction (adjusted incidence rate, 1.3 vs 1.6 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this analysis of nationwide data from 3 countries, previous safety signals indicating an increased risk of intestinal obstruction with use of DPP4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists were not confirmed.

Trajectories of cardiac troponin in the decades before cardiovascular death: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing is a promising tool for cardiovascular risk prediction, but whether serial testing can dynamically predict risk is uncertain. We evaluated the trajectory of cardiac troponin I in the years prior to a cardiovascular event in the general population, and determine whether serial measurements could track risk within individuals. METHODS: In the Whitehall II cohort, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured on three occasions over a 15-year period. Time trajectories of troponin were constructed in those who died from cardiovascular disease compared to those who survived or died from other causes during follow up and these were externally validated in the HUNT Study. A joint model that adjusts for cardiovascular risk factors was used to estimate risk of cardiovascular death using serial troponin measurements. RESULTS: In 7,293 individuals (mean 58 ± 7 years, 29.4% women) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death occurred in 281 (3.9%) and 914 (12.5%) individuals (median follow-up 21.4 years), respectively. Troponin concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease with a steeper trajectory compared to those surviving or dying from other causes in Whitehall and HUNT (Pinteraction < 0.05 for both). The joint model demonstrated an independent association between temporal evolution of troponin and risk of cardiovascular death (HR per doubling, 1.45, 95% CI,1.33-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac troponin I concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease compared to those surviving or dying from other causes over the preceding decades. Serial cardiac troponin testing in the general population has potential to track future cardiovascular risk.

Quantifying Alcohol Consumption in the General Population by Analysing Phosphatidylethanol Concentrations in Whole Blood: Results from 24,574 Subjects Included in the HUNT4 Study.

AIMS: To evaluate the association between self-reported alcohol consumption and phosphatidylethanol (PEth) concentrations in blood in a large general population study, and discuss optimal cut-off PEth concentrations for defined levels of alcohol consumption. METHODS: Population based, longitudinal cohort study including 24,574 adults from The Trøndelag Health Study 4 (HUNT4) conducted in Trøndelag County, Norway. Data included PEth concentration, self-reported alcohol consumption and CAGE score. RESULTS: PEth levels in whole blood increased with the number of alcohol units consumed, the frequency of alcohol consumption, the frequency of binge drinking and the CAGE score (lifetime, i.e. 'have you ever'). The cut-off concentrations with highest combined sensitivity and specificity were 0.057 µmol/l (40 ng/ml) for identification of those consuming >1 alcohol unit per day (sensitivity 86%, specificity 76%), 0.087 µmol/l (61 ng/ml) for consuming >2 units per day (sensitivity 87%, specificity 81%) and 0.122 µmol/l (86 ng/ml) for consuming >3 alcohol units per day (sensitivity 80%, specificity 86%). By defining a CAGE score ≥ 2 as potentially harmful consumption, a cut-off of 0.100 µmol/l (70 ng/ml) identified 52% of all those subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Cut-off limits of PEth concentrations should take into account the indication for sampling. Using cut-offs for the PEth concentrations of about 0.05 µmol/l (35 ng/ml) and 0.08 µmol/l (56 ng/ml) would identify about 90% of the subjects consuming more than 1 and 2 alcohol units per day, respectively. Concentrations above these cut-offs should lead to a more detailed interview related to alcohol use.

Age-of-onset information helps identify 76 genetic variants associated with allergic disease.

Risk factors that contribute to inter-individual differences in the age-of-onset of allergic diseases are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify genetic risk variants associated with the age at which symptoms of allergic disease first develop, considering information from asthma, hay fever and eczema. Self-reported age-of-onset information was available for 117,130 genotyped individuals of European ancestry from the UK Biobank study. For each individual, we identified the earliest age at which asthma, hay fever and/or eczema was first diagnosed and performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of this combined age-of-onset phenotype. We identified 50 variants with a significant independent association (P<3x10-8) with age-of-onset. Forty-five variants had comparable effects on the onset of the three individual diseases and 38 were also associated with allergic disease case-control status in an independent study (n = 222,484). We observed a strong negative genetic correlation between age-of-onset and case-control status of allergic disease (rg = -0.63, P = 4.5x10-61), indicating that cases with early disease onset have a greater burden of allergy risk alleles than those with late disease onset. Subsequently, a multivariate GWAS of age-of-onset and case-control status identified a further 26 associations that were missed by the univariate analyses of age-of-onset or case-control status only. Collectively, of the 76 variants identified, 18 represent novel associations for allergic disease. We identified 81 likely target genes of the 76 associated variants based on information from expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and non-synonymous variants, of which we highlight ADAM15, FOSL2, TRIM8, BMPR2, CD200R1, PRKCQ, NOD2, SMAD4, ABCA7 and UBE2L3. Our results support the notion that early and late onset allergic disease have partly distinct genetic architectures, potentially explaining known differences in pathophysiology between individuals.

Healthcare costs associated with overweight and obesity at an individual versus a population level - a HUNT study. / Helsetjenestekostnader ved overvekt og fedme på individnivå versus populasjonsnivå ­ en HUNT-studie.

BACKGROUND: The interpretation of research results is affected by how results are presented. We show the importance of presenting the association between body mass index (BMI) and healthcare costs from both the individual perspective and the population perspective. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Using measurements of height and weight from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT Study) linked to register data on specialist healthcare costs and demographics, we estimated the association between BMI and specialist healthcare costs by means of regression analyses. RESULTS: From an individual perspective, the association between BMI and specialist healthcare costs was strongest in people in obesity classes 2 and 3 (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2). In contrast, from a population perspective, the association was strongest in the case of overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) or obesity class 1 (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), as there are more people in this BMI range. INTERPRETATION: The study emphasises the importance of including the population perspective in research studies and policy decision-making processes. People with severe obesity have a high individual risk, but their use of health services has less significance for the overall costs of health care since they are fewer people in this group.

Lifetime obesity trends are associated with subclinical myocardial injury: The Trøndelag health study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with subclinical myocardial injury as quantified by concentrations of cardiac troponin T, but whether lifetime excess weight history is associated with increased concentrations of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and how indices of abdominal adiposity and glycemic dysregulation affect these associations remain unclear. METHODS: We analyzed cTnI with a high-sensitivity assay in 9739 participants in the Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study at study visit 4 (2017-2019). BMI was assessed at study Visit 1 (1984-1986), 2 (1995-1997), 3 (2006-2008), and 4. RESULTS: Median age at visit 4 was 68.7 years and 59% were women. Concentrations of cTnI were detectable in 84.1% of study participants, with a median of 2.5 (1.5-4.5 ng/L). We identified three clusters of BMI trajectories from visit 1 to 4, (1) stable normal weight, (2) stable overweight, and (3) stable obesity. Participants in clusters 2 and 3 were at increased risk of elevated concentrations of cTnI at visit 4 (odds ratio 1.27, 95% CI 1.09-1.47, and odds ratio 1.70, 95% CI 1.33-2.17, p for trend <0.001). Participants in cluster 3 had 22.0 (95% CI 14.1-29.9) higher concentrations of cTnI compared to participants in cluster 1 (p for trend <0.001). Dysregulated glucose metabolism and abdominal obesity did not influence our results. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with stable overweight or obesity are at increased risk of subclinical myocardial injury, independently of glycemic dysregulation and abdominal adiposity. Our data support a direct detrimental effect of long-standing obesity on cardiovascular health.