Recommendations on data sharing in HIV drug resistance research.

• Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance has implications for antiretroviral treatment strategies and for containing the HIV pandemic because the development of HIV drug resistance leads to the requirement for antiretroviral drugs that may be less effective, less well-tolerated, and more expensive than those used in first-line regimens. • HIV drug resistance studies are designed to determine which HIV mutations are selected by antiretroviral drugs and, in turn, how these mutations affect antiretroviral drug susceptibility and response to future antiretroviral treatment regimens. • Such studies collectively form a vital knowledge base essential for monitoring global HIV drug resistance trends, interpreting HIV genotypic tests, and updating HIV treatment guidelines. • Although HIV drug resistance data are collected in many studies, such data are often not publicly shared, prompting the need to recommend best practices to encourage and standardize HIV drug resistance data sharing. • In contrast to other viruses, sharing HIV sequences from phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics requires additional precautions as HIV transmission is criminalized in many countries and regions. • Our recommendations are designed to ensure that the data that contribute to HIV drug resistance knowledge will be available without undue hardship to those publishing HIV drug resistance studies and without risk to people living with HIV.

Clinical Impact of Pretreatment Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance in People Initiating Nonnucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor-Containing Antiretroviral Therapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Increased access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has resulted in rising levels of pretreatment human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (PDR). This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of PDR on treatment outcomes among people initiating nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART, including the combination of efavirenz (EFV), tenofovir (TDF), and lamivudine or emtricitabine (XTC). METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies and conference proceedings comparing treatment outcomes in populations initiating NNRTI-based ART with and without PDR. We conducted subgroup analyses by regimen: (1) NNRTIs + 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), (2) EFV + 2 NRTIs, or (3) EFV/TDF/XTC; by population (children vs adults); and by definition of resistance (PDR vs NNRTI PDR). RESULTS: Among 6197 studies screened, 32 were analyzed (31 441 patients). We found that individuals with PDR initiating NNRTIs across all the subgroups had increased risk of virological failure compared to those without PDR. Risk of acquisition of new resistance mutations and ART switch was also higher in people with PDR. CONCLUSIONS: This review shows poorer treatment outcomes in the presence of PDR, supporting the World Health Organization's recommendation to avoid using NNRTIs in countries where levels of PDR are high.

Low-Abundance Drug-Resistant HIV-1 Variants in Antiretroviral Drug-Naive Individuals: A Systematic Review of Detection Methods, Prevalence, and Clinical Impact.

BACKGROUND: The presence of high-abundance drug-resistant HIV-1 jeopardizes success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Despite numerous investigations, the clinical impact of low-abundance drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (LA-DRVs) at levels <15%-25% of the virus population in antiretroviral (ARV) drug-naive individuals remains controversial. METHODS: We systematically reviewed 103 studies assessing prevalence, detection methods, technical and clinical detection cutoffs, and clinical significance of LA-DRVs in antiretroviral drug-naive adults. RESULTS: In total, 14 919 ARV drug-naive individuals were included. Prevalence of LA-DRVs (ie, proportion of individuals harboring LA-DRVs) was 0%-100%. Technical detection cutoffs showed a 4 log range (0.001%-10%); 42/103 (40.8%) studies investigating the impact of LA-DRVs on ART; 25 studies included only individuals on first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART regimens. Eleven of those 25 studies (44.0%) reported a significantly association between preexisting LA-DRVs and risk of virological failure whereas 14/25 (56.0%) did not. CONCLUSIONS: Comparability of the 103 studies is hampered by high heterogeneity of the studies' designs and use of different methods to detect LA-DRVs. Thus, evaluating clinical impact of LA-DRVs on first-line ART remains challenging. We, the WHO HIVResNet working group, defined central areas of future investigations to guide further efforts to implement ultrasensitive resistance testing in routine settings.

Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-resistance mutations for the surveillance of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) are expected to be widely adopted globally, requiring surveillance of resistance emergence and transmission. OBJECTIVES: We therefore sought to develop a standardized list of INSTI-resistance mutations suitable for the surveillance of transmitted INSTI resistance. METHODS: To characterize the suitability of the INSTI-resistance mutations for transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance (TDR) surveillance, we classified them according to their presence on published expert lists, conservation in INSTI-naive persons, frequency in INSTI-treated persons and contribution to reduced in vitro susceptibility. Mutation prevalences were determined using integrase sequences from 17302 INSTI-naive and 2450 INSTI-treated persons; 53.3% of the INSTI-naive sequences and 20.0% of INSTI-treated sequences were from non-B subtypes. Approximately 10% of sequences were from persons who received dolutegravir alone or a first-generation INSTI followed by dolutegravir. RESULTS: Fifty-nine previously recognized (or established) INSTI-resistance mutations were present on one or more of four published expert lists. They were classified into three main non-overlapping groups: 29 relatively common non-polymorphic mutations, occurring in five or more individuals and significantly selected by INSTI treatment; 8 polymorphic mutations; and 22 rare mutations. Among the 29 relatively common INSTI-selected mutations, 24 emerged as candidates for inclusion on a list of INSTI surveillance drug-resistance mutations: T66A/I/K, E92G/Q, G118R, F121Y, E138A/K/T, G140A/C/S, Y143C/H/R/S, S147G, Q148H/R/K, N155H, S230R and R263K. CONCLUSIONS: A set of 24 non-polymorphic INSTI-selected mutations is likely to be useful for quantifying INSTI-associated TDR. This list may require updating as more sequences become available from INSTI-experienced persons infected with HIV-1 non-subtype B viruses and/or receiving dolutegravir.

Content guidance for mobile phones short message service (SMS)-based antiretroviral therapy adherence and appointment reminders: a review of the literature.

Mobile phones are increasingly being used to support health activities, including the care and management of people living with HIV/AIDS. Short message service (SMS) has been explored as a means to optimize and support behaviour change. However, there is minimal guidance on messaging content development. The purpose of this review was to inform the content of SMS messages for mobile health (mHealth) initiatives designed to support anti-retroviral therapy adherence and clinic appointment keeping in resource-limited settings. PubMed, OvidMedline, Google Scholar, K4Health's mHealth Evidence database, the mHealth Working Group project resource, and Health COMpass were searched. A request to online communities for recommendations on message content was also made. 1010 unique sources were identified, of which 51 were included. The information was organized into three categories: pre-message development, message development, and security and privacy. Fifteen of the publications explicitly provided their message content. Important lessons when developing the content of SMS were: (1) conducting formative research; (2) grounding content in behaviour change theory; and (3) reviewing proposed content with experts. Best practices exist for developing message content for behaviour change. Efforts should be continued to apply lessons learned from the existing literature to inform mHealth initiatives supporting HIV/AIDS care and treatment.

Correction to: Prevalence of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in recently infected, treatment-naïve persons in the Southwest of Iran, 2014-2015.

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The World Health Organization's Response to Emerging Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance and a Call for Global Action.

The global community, including the World Health Organization (WHO), has committed to ending the AIDS epidemic and to ensuring that 90% of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are diagnosed, 90% start treatment, and 90% achieve and maintain virological suppression. The emergence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) as antiretroviral treatment programs expand could preclude the 90-90-90 targets adopted by the United Nations General Assembly at the High-Level Meeting on Ending AIDS from being achieved. The Global Action Plan on HIVDR is a call for collective action grounded on normative guidance providing a standardized and robust approach to monitoring, preventing, and responding to HIVDR over the next 5 years (2017-2021). WHO is committed to supporting country, global, regional, and national partners to implement and monitor the progress of the Global Action Plan. This article outlines the key components of WHO's strategy to tackle HIVDR and the role the organization takes in leading the global response to HIVDR.

Impact of HIV Drug Resistance on HIV/AIDS-Associated Mortality, New Infections, and Antiretroviral Therapy Program Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Drug Resistance in African Infants and Young Children Newly Diagnosed With HIV: A Multicountry Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Programs for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have been scaled up in many low- and middle-income countries. However, HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) data among HIV-1-infected young children remain limited. METHODS: Surveys of pretreatment HIVDR among children aged <18 months who were diagnosed with HIV through early infant diagnosis were conducted in 5 sub-Saharan African countries (Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe) between 2011 and 2014 following World Health Organization (WHO) guidance. Deidentified demographic and clinical data were used to explore risk factors associated with nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. RESULTS: Among the 1450 genotypes analyzed, 1048 had accompanying demographic and clinical data. The median age of children was 4 months; 50.4% were female. HIV from 54.1% showed resistance to 1 or more antiretroviral (ARV) drugs, with 53.0% and 8.8% having resistance to 1 or more NNRTI or nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, respectively. NNRTI resistance was particularly high in children exposed to ARV drugs through PMTCT; adjusted odds ratios were 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.6) for maternal exposure only and 2.4 (CI, 1.6-3.6) for neonatal exposure only. CONCLUSIONS: Protease inhibitor-based regimens in children aged <3 years are currently recommended by WHO, but the implementation of this recommendation is suboptimal. These results reinforce the urgent need to overcome barriers to scaling up pediatric protease inhibitor-based regimens in sub-Saharan Africa and underscore the need to accelerate the study and approval of integrase inhibitors for use in young children.

Prevalence of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in recently infected, treatment-naïve persons in the Southwest of Iran, 2014-2015.

The emergence and transmission of drug resistant HIV mutants is a major concern, especially in resource-limited countries with expanding antiretroviral therapy. Studies have recently reported the prevalence of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations in certain Iranian cities; however, no information is currently available about the level of TDR, as well as the nature of the circulating HIV-1 subtypes, in the Southwestern bordering province of Iran, Khuzestan. Herein, we used a WHO-recommended TDR survey method to classify the prevalence of TDR in indigenous people of Khuzestan province. For this purpose, between March 2014 and February 2015, blood samples were collected from 52 newly diagnosed, antiretroviral treatment-naïve, HIV-1 infected persons aged from 18 to 30 years. TDR mutations were determined by sequencing the protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) genes and interpreted using the WHO drug resistance mutations surveillance list. HIV-1 subtypes were characterized by sequencing the PR-RT, C2-V5, and p17 regions of the pol, env and gag genes, respectively. Two participants had non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance mutations, specifically K103N in one individual and K101EK/K103KN/G190AG in the other. No nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) or major protease inhibitor (PI) mutations were identified. HIV-1 subtyping revealed that all participants were infected with HIV-1 CRF35_AD. According to the WHO sequential sampling method, the prevalence of HIV-1 TDR in the sampling area (Khuzestan province) was classified as moderate for NNRTIs and low for NRTIs and PIs. This is the first HIV-1 drug resistance threshold survey in the Khuzestan province of Iran and shows a predominance of NNRTI TDR mutations in this area.

Long-term Virological Outcomes of First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV-1 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: More than 11.7 million people are currently receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and focused efforts are needed to ensure high levels of adherence and to minimize treatment failure. Recently, international targets have emphasized the importance of long-term virological suppression as a key measure of program performance. METHODS: We systematically reviewed publications and conference abstracts published between January 2006 and May 2013 that reported virological outcomes among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected adults receiving first-line ART for up to 5 years in LMICs. Summary estimates of virological suppression after 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months of ART were analyzed using random-effects meta-analysis. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis assumed all participants who were lost to follow-up, died, or stopped ART as having virological failure. RESULTS: Summary estimates of virological suppression remained >80% for up to 60 months of ART for all 184 included cohorts. ITT analysis yielded 74.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72.2-77.2) suppression after 6 months and 61.8% (95% CI, 44.0-79.7) suppression after 48 months on ART. Switches to second-line ART were reported scarcely. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals retained on ART, virological suppression rates during the first 5 years of ART were high (>80%) and stable. Suppression rates in ITT analysis declined during 4 years.

Geographic and temporal trends in the molecular epidemiology and genetic mechanisms of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance: an individual-patient- and sequence-level meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Regional and subtype-specific mutational patterns of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) are essential for informing first-line antiretroviral (ARV) therapy guidelines and designing diagnostic assays for use in regions where standard genotypic resistance testing is not affordable. We sought to understand the molecular epidemiology of TDR and to identify the HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and virus subtypes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We reviewed all GenBank submissions of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences with or without protease and identified 287 studies published between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, with more than 25 recently or chronically infected ARV-naïve individuals. These studies comprised 50,870 individuals from 111 countries. Each set of study sequences was analyzed for phylogenetic clustering and the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs). The median overall TDR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), south/southeast Asia (SSEA), upper-income Asian countries, Latin America/Caribbean, Europe, and North America was 2.8%, 2.9%, 5.6%, 7.6%, 9.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. In SSA, there was a yearly 1.09-fold (95% CI: 1.05-1.14) increase in odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up attributable to an increase in non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. The odds of NNRTI-associated TDR also increased in Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06-1.25), North America (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.26), Europe (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13), and upper-income Asian countries (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12-1.55). In SSEA, there was no significant change in the odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up (OR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.92-1.02). An analysis limited to sequences with mixtures at less than 0.5% of their nucleotide positions­a proxy for recent infection­yielded trends comparable to those obtained using the complete dataset. Four NNRTI SDRMs­K101E, K103N, Y181C, and G190A­accounted for >80% of NNRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. Sixteen nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs accounted for >69% of NRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. In SSA and SSEA, 89% of NNRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to nevirapine or efavirenz, whereas only 27% of NRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to zidovudine, lamivudine, tenofovir, or abacavir. Of 763 viruses with TDR in SSA and SSEA, 725 (95%) were genetically dissimilar; 38 (5%) formed 19 sequence pairs. Inherent limitations of this study are that some cohorts may not represent the broader regional population and that studies were heterogeneous with respect to duration of infection prior to sampling. CONCLUSIONS: Most TDR strains in SSA and SSEA arose independently, suggesting that ARV regimens with a high genetic barrier to resistance combined with improved patient adherence may mitigate TDR increases by reducing the generation of new ARV-resistant strains. A small number of NNRTI-resistance mutations were responsible for most cases of high-level resistance, suggesting that inexpensive point-mutation assays to detect these mutations may be useful for pre-therapy screening in regions with high levels of TDR. In the context of a public health approach to ARV therapy, a reliable point-of-care genotypic resistance test could identify which patients should receive standard first-line therapy and which should receive a protease-inhibitor-containing regimen.

Targets for intervention to improve virological outcomes for patients receiving free antiretroviral therapy in Tamil Nadu, India.

Operational research to identify factors predicting poor clinical outcomes is critical to maximize patient care and prolong first-line regimens for those receiving free antiretroviral therapy (ART) in India. We sought to identify social or clinical factors amenable to intervention that predict virological outcomes after 12 months of ART. We examined a retrospective cohort of consecutive adults initiating free nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. Individuals remaining in care 12 months post-ART initiation were tested for HIV viral load and surveyed to identify barriers and facilitators to adherence, and to determine clinic travel times and associated costs. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression identified factors predicting HIV viral load >200 copies/mL after 12 months of ART. Of 230 adults initiating ART, 10% of patients died, 8% transferred out, 5% were lost to follow-up, and 174/230 (76%) completed 12 months of ART, the questionnaire, and viral load testing. HIV viral load was <200 copies/mL in 140/174 (80%) patients. In multivariate models, being busy with work or caring for others (OR 2.9, p < 0.01), having clinic transport times ≥ 3 hours (OR 3.0, p = 0.02), and alcohol use (OR 4.8, p = 0.03) predicted viral load >200 copies/mL after 12 months of ART. Clinical outcomes following ART are related to programmatic factors such as prolonged travel time and individual factors such as being busy with family or using alcohol. Simple interventions that alter these factors should be evaluated to improve clinical outcomes for populations receiving free ART in similar settings.

Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries has been achieved by using a public health approach that involved national standard regimens and clinical monitoring in settings where laboratory infrastructure was not available. This strategy potentially allows for long periods of unrecognized viral failure, during which drug-resistant virus can be transmitted and this could compromise the long-term effectiveness of currently available first-line regimens. In response to this concern, the World Health Organization recommends population-based surveys to detect whether the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality. It is critical to remain vigilant over transmission of drug-resistant HIV.

Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance mutations associated with first-line stavudine-containing antiretroviral therapy: programmatic implications for countries phasing out stavudine.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization Antiretroviral Treatment Guidelines recommend phasing-out stavudine because of its risk of long-term toxicity. There are two mutational pathways of stavudine resistance with different implications for zidovudine and tenofovir cross-resistance, the primary candidates for replacing stavudine. However, because resistance testing is rarely available in resource-limited settings, it is critical to identify the cross-resistance patterns associated with first-line stavudine failure. METHODS: We analyzed HIV-1 resistance mutations following first-line stavudine failure from 35 publications comprising 1,825 individuals. We also assessed the influence of concomitant nevirapine vs. efavirenz, therapy duration, and HIV-1 subtype on the proportions of mutations associated with zidovudine vs. tenofovir cross-resistance. RESULTS: Mutations with preferential zidovudine activity, K65R or K70E, occurred in 5.3% of individuals. Mutations with preferential tenofovir activity, ≥ two thymidine analog mutations (TAMs) or Q151M, occurred in 22% of individuals. Nevirapine increased the risk of TAMs, K65R, and Q151M. Longer therapy increased the risk of TAMs and Q151M but not K65R. Subtype C and CRF01_AE increased the risk of K65R, but only CRF01_AE increased the risk of K65R without Q151M. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of concomitant nevirapine vs. efavirenz, therapy duration, or subtype, tenofovir was more likely than zidovudine to retain antiviral activity following first-line d4T therapy.

Prevalence of Emergent Dolutegravir Resistance Mutations in People Living with HIV: A Rapid Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG) is a cornerstone of global antiretroviral (ARV) therapy (ART) due to its high efficacy and favorable tolerability. However, limited data exist regarding the risk of emergent integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) drug-resistance mutations (DRMs) in individuals receiving DTG-containing ART. METHODS: We performed a PubMed search using the term "Dolutegravir", last updated 18 December 2023, to estimate the prevalence of VF with emergent INSTI DRMs in people living with HIV (PLWH) without previous VF on an INSTI who received DTG-containing ART. RESULTS: Of 2131 retrieved records, 43 clinical trials, 39 cohorts, and 6 cross-sectional studies provided data across 6 clinical scenarios based on ART history, virological status, and co-administered ARVs: (1) ART-naïve PLWH receiving DTG plus two NRTIs; (2) ART-naïve PLWH receiving DTG plus lamivudine; (3) ART-experienced PLWH with VF on a previous regimen receiving DTG plus two NRTIs; (4) ART-experienced PLWH with virological suppression receiving DTG plus two NRTIs; (5) ART-experienced PLWH with virological suppression receiving DTG and a second ARV; and (6) ART-experienced PLWH with virological suppression receiving DTG monotherapy. The median proportion of PLWH in clinical trials with emergent INSTI DRMs was 1.5% for scenario 3 and 3.4% for scenario 6. In the remaining four trial scenarios, VF prevalence with emergent INSTI DRMs was ≤0.1%. Data from cohort studies minimally influenced prevalence estimates from clinical trials, whereas cross-sectional studies yielded prevalence data lacking denominator details. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical trials, the prevalence of VF with emergent INSTI DRMs in PLWH receiving DTG-containing regimens has been low. Novel approaches are required to assess VF prevalence with emergent INSTI DRMs in PLWH receiving DTG in real-world settings.

Global trends in antiretroviral resistance in treatment-naive individuals with HIV after rollout of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings: a global collaborative study and meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The emergence and spread of high levels of HIV-1 drug resistance in resource-limited settings where combination antiretroviral treatment has been scaled up could compromise the effectiveness of national HIV treatment programmes. We aimed to estimate changes in the prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance in treatment-naive individuals with HIV since initiation of rollout in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We did a systematic search for studies and conference abstracts published between January, 2001, and July, 2011, and included additional data from the WHO HIV drug resistance surveillance programme. We assessed the prevalence of drug-resistance mutations in untreated individuals with respect to time since rollout in a series of random-effects meta-regression models. FINDINGS: Study-level data were available for 26,102 patients from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. We recorded no difference between chronic and recent infection on the prevalence of one or more drug-resistance mutations for any region. East Africa had the highest estimated rate of increase at 29% per year (95% CI 15 to 45; p=0·0001) since rollout, with an estimated prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance at 8 years after rollout of 7·4% (4·3 to 12·7). We recorded an annual increase of 14% (0% to 29%; p=0·054) in southern Africa and a non-significant increase of 3% (-0·9 to 16; p=0·618) in west and central Africa. There was no change in resistance over time in Latin America, and because of much country-level heterogeneity the meta-regression analysis was not appropriate for Asia. With respect to class of antiretroviral, there were substantial increases in resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) in east Africa (36% per year [21 to 52]; p<0·0001) and southern Africa (23% per year [7 to 42]; p=0·0049). No increase was noted for the other drug classes in any region. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest a significant increase in prevalence of drug resistance over time since antiretroviral rollout in regions of sub-Saharan Africa; this rise is driven by NNRTI resistance in studies from east and southern Africa. The findings are of concern and draw attention to the need for enhanced surveillance and drug-resistance prevention efforts by national HIV treatment programmes. Nevertheless, estimated levels, although increasing, are not unexpected in view of the large expansion of antiretroviral treatment coverage seen in low-income and middle-income countries--no changes in antiretroviral treatment guidelines are warranted at the moment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

Viral suppression after 12 months of antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To establish estimates of viral suppression in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in patients who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: Data on viral suppression after 12 months of ART in LMICs were collected from articles published in 2003 to 2011 and from abstracts of conferences held between 2009 and 2011. Pooled proportions for on-treatment and intention-to-treat populations were used as summary estimates. Random-effects models were used for heterogeneous groups of studies (I (2) > 75%). FINDINGS: Overall, 49 studies covering 48 cohorts and 30 016 individuals met the inclusion criteria. With thresholds for suppression between 300 and 500 copies of viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) per ml of plasma, 84.3% (95% confidence interval, CI: 80.4-87.9) of the pooled on-treatment population and 70.5% (95% CI: 65.2-75.6) of the intention-to-treat population showed suppression. Use of different viral RNA thresholds changed the proportions showing suppression: to 84% and 76% of the on-treatment population with thresholds set above 300 and at or below 200 RNA copies per ml, respectively, and to 78%, 71% and 63% of the intention-to-treat population at thresholds set at 1000, 300 to 500, and 200 or fewer copies per ml, respectively. CONCLUSION: The pooled estimates of viral suppression recorded after 12 months of ART in LMICs provide benchmarks that other ART programmes can use to set realistic goals and perform predictive modelling. Evidence from this review suggests that the current international target - i.e. viral suppression in > 70% of the intention-to-treat population, with a threshold of 1000 copies per ml - should be revised upwards.

Pharmacy and self-report adherence measures to predict virological outcomes for patients on free antiretroviral therapy in Tamil Nadu, India.

Over 480,000 individuals receive free antiretroviral therapy (ART) in India yet data associating ART adherence with HIV viral load for populations exclusively receiving free ART are not available. Additionally estimates of adherence using pharmacy data on ART pick-up are not available for any population in India. After 12-months ART we found self-reported estimates of adherence were not associated with HIV viral load. Individuals with <100% adherence using pharmacy data predicted HIV viral load, and estimates combining pharmacy data and self-report were also predictive. Pharmacy adherence measures proved a feasible method to estimate adherence in India and appear more predictive of virological outcomes than self-report. Predictive adherence measures identified in this study warrant further investigation in populations receiving free ART in India to allow for identification of individuals at risk of virological failure and in need of adherence support.