Predicting summer hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: riverine N, P, and Si loading.

We conducted a statistical analysis to discern the relative strengths of the loading of various forms of nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved silicate and their molar ratios on the variance in the size of the summertime low oxygen zone found off the Mississippi River, northern Gulf of Mexico. A stable statistical model that included Year and riverine nitrate+nitrite loading for the 2 months prior to the measurement of hypoxic zone size described 82% of its variation in size from 1978 to 2004. The usefulness of the term Year is consistent with the documented increase in carbon stored in sediments after the 1970s, which is when the hypoxic zone is predicted to have become a regular feature on the shelf and to have expanded westward. The increased carbon storage is anticipated to cause a sedimentary respiratory demand influencing the size of the zone, and whose temporal influence is cumulative and transcends the annual variations in nitrogen loading. The variable Year is negatively correlated with the TN:TP ratio in a way that suggests N, not P, has become more important as a factor limiting phytoplankton growth in the last 20 years. Nitrogen, in particular nitrate+nitrite, and not phosphorus, dissolved silicate, or their molar ratios, appears to be the major driving factor influencing the size of the hypoxic zone on this shelf. This conclusion is consistent with cross-system analyses that conclude that the TN:TP ratio in the Mississippi River, currently fluctuating around 20:1, is indicative of nitrogen, not phosphorus, limitation of phytoplankton growth. Nutrient management that places stronger emphasis on reducing nitrogen loading as compared to phosphorus loading, is justified.

The estimated long-term impact of tsetse control on the size of the population of cattle in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia .

The long-term impact of tsetse control on cattle population size in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia, was analysed using an age-structured population model. A prior analytical assessment revealed that the risk of cattle dying in the tsetse-unprotected villages ranged from 4 to 9 times higher than in the tsetse-protected village. Model results show that during a period of 10 years the cattle population in the tsetse-protected village of Meti is likely to increase from 167 to 583 animals, while that in the adjacent tsetse-unprotected village of Gale remains almost constant. Model simulations also predict that improving the survival rate of calves in the tsetse-unprotected villages of Taikiltu and Temoloko (which presently have calf mortality rates of up to 35% would bring a substantial increase in their cattle population.

Predicting summer hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: redux.

We report on the evolution and accuracy of a model used to predict the mid-summer area of hypoxia (oxygen ≤2 mg l(-1)) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, use it to test for impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), and estimate the N loading that would meet a management goal. The prediction since 2000 were 100%±6% (µ±1 SE) of the actual value. The predicted in 2010 was 99% of that actual value, suggesting that the net effect of the 2010 oil spill on the hypoxic zone size was negligible. A tropical storm, however, may have reduced the potential size of the hypoxic zone. Lowering the May nitrogen load to about 70,000 mton N nitrate+nitrite would bring the model's predicted hypoxic zone size down to the management goal of 5000 km(2) and restore hypoxic waters to normoxic conditions.

Fluctuating silicate:nitrate ratios and coastal plankton food webs.

Marine diatoms require dissolved silicate to form an external shell, and their growth becomes Si-limited when the atomic ratio of silicate to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (Si:DIN) approaches 1:1, also known as the "Redfield ratio." Fundamental changes in the diatom-to-zooplankton-to-higher trophic level food web should occur when this ratio falls below 1:1 and the proportion of diatoms in the phytoplankton community is reduced. We quantitatively substantiate these predictions by using a variety of data from the Mississippi River continental shelf, a system in which the Si:DIN loading ratio has declined from around 3:1 to 1:1 during this century because of land-use practices in the watershed. We suggest that, on this shelf, when the Si:DIN ratio in the river decreases to less than 1:1, then (i) copepod abundance changes from >75% to <30% of the total mesozooplankton, (ii) zooplankton fecal pellets become a minor component of the in situ primary production consumed, and (iii) bottom-water oxygen consumption rates become less dependent on relatively fast-sinking (diatom-rich) organic matter packaged mostly as zooplankton fecal pellets. This coastal ecosystem appears to be a pelagic food web dynamically poised to be either a food web composed of diatoms and copepods or one with potentially disruptive harmful algal blooms. The system is directed between these two ecosystem states by Mississippi River water quality, which is determined by land-use practices far inland.