ABSTRACT
Family history is the standard indirect measure of inherited susceptibility in clinical care, whereas polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have more recently demonstrated potential for more directly capturing genetic risk in many diseases. Few studies have systematically compared how these overlap and complement each other across common diseases. Within FinnGen (N = 306,418), we leverage family relationships, up to 50 years of nationwide registries, and genome-wide genotyping to examine the interplay of family history and genome-wide PRSs. We explore the dynamic for three types of family history across 24 common diseases: first- and second-degree family history and parental causes of death. Covering a large proportion of the burden of non-communicable diseases in adults, we show that family history and PRS are independent and not interchangeable measures, but instead provide complementary information on inherited disease susceptibility. The PRSs explained on average 10% of the effect of first-degree family history, and first-degree family history 3% of PRSs, and PRS effects were independent of both early- and late-onset family history. The PRS stratified the risk similarly in individuals with and without family history. In most diseases, including coronary artery disease, glaucoma, and type 2 diabetes, a positive family history with a high PRS was associated with a considerably elevated risk, whereas a low PRS compensated completely for the risk implied by positive family history. This study provides a catalogue of risk estimates for both family history of disease and PRSs and highlights opportunities for a more comprehensive way of assessing inherited disease risk across common diseases.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Genome-Wide Association Study , Adult , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/genetics , Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Medical History Taking , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The excess risk of cardiovascular disease associated with a wide array of infectious diseases is unknown. We quantified the short- and long-term risk of major cardiovascular events in people with severe infection and estimated the population-attributable fraction. METHODS: We analyzed data from 331 683 UK Biobank participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline (2006-2010) and replicated our main findings in an independent population from 3 prospective cohort studies comprising 271 329 community-dwelling participants from Finland (baseline 1986-2005). Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at baseline. We diagnosed infectious diseases (the exposure) and incident major cardiovascular events after infections, defined as myocardial infarction, cardiac death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke (the outcome) from linkage of participants to hospital and death registers. We computed adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for infectious diseases as short- and long-term risk factors for incident major cardiovascular events. We also calculated population-attributable fractions for long-term risk. RESULTS: In the UK Biobank (mean follow-up, 11.6 years), 54 434 participants were hospitalized for an infection, and 11 649 had an incident major cardiovascular event at follow-up. Relative to participants with no record of infectious disease, those who were hospitalized experienced increased risk of major cardiovascular events, largely irrespective of the type of infection. This association was strongest during the first month after infection (HR, 7.87 [95% CI, 6.36-9.73]), but remained elevated during the entire follow-up (HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.40-1.54]). The findings were similar in the replication cohort (HR, 7.64 [95% CI, 5.82-10.03] during the first month; HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.34-1.48] during mean follow-up of 19.2 years). After controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the population-attributable fraction for severe infections and major cardiovascular events was 4.4% in the UK Biobank and 6.1% in the replication cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Infections severe enough to require hospital treatment were associated with increased risks for major cardiovascular disease events immediately after hospitalization. A small excess risk was also observed in the long-term, but residual confounding cannot be excluded.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Communicable Diseases , Myocardial Infarction , Humans , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases/complicationsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Rheumatic diseases may impair reproductive success and pregnancy outcomes, but systematic evaluations across diseases are lacking. We conducted a nationwide cohort study to examine the impact of rheumatic diseases on reproductive health measures, comparing the impacts with those of other immune-mediated diseases (IMDs). METHODS: Out of all of the 5 339 804 Finnish citizens, individuals born 1964-1984 and diagnosed with any of the 19 IMDs before age 30 (women) or 35 (men) were matched with 20 controls by birth year, sex, and education. We used data from nationwide health registers to study the impact of IMDs on reproductive health measures, such as reproductive success and, for women, ever having experienced adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. RESULTS: Several of the rheumatic diseases, particularly SLE, JIA, and seropositive RA, were associated with higher rates of childlessness and fewer children. The risks for pre-eclampsia, newborns being small for gestational age, preterm delivery, non-elective Caesarean sections, and need of neonatal intensive care were increased in many IMDs. Particularly, SLE, SS, type 1 diabetes, and Addison's disease showed >2-fold risks for some of these outcomes. In most rheumatic diseases, moderate (1.1-1.5-fold) risk increases were observed for diverse adverse pregnancy outcomes, with similar effects in IBD, celiac disease, asthma, ITP, and psoriasis. CONCLUSION: Rheumatic diseases have a broad impact on reproductive health, with effects comparable with that of several other IMDs. Of the rheumatic diseases, SLE and SS conferred the largest risk increases on perinatal adverse event outcomes.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether replacing oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurement for diagnosing diabetes is justified. We aimed to assess the proportion of OGTT-diagnosed diabetes cases that can be confirmed by HbA1c and to examine whether individuals with OGTT diagnosis but nondiagnostic HbA1c are at higher risk of macrovascular and microvascular disease. METHODS: Participants were 5773 men and women from the population-based Whitehall II prospective cohort study in the United Kingdom. New OGTT diabetes cases diagnosed in clinical examinations in 2002 to 2004 and 2007 to 2009 were assessed for HbA1c confirmation (≥6.5%) in these and subsequent clinical examinations in 2012 to 2013 and 2015 to 2016. All participants were followed up for major cardiovascular events through linkage to electronic health records until 2017 and for incident chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2) until the last clinical examination. In analysis of vascular disease risk, new OGTT-diagnosed diabetes cases with and without diagnostic HbA1c and preexisting diabetes cases were compared with diabetes-free participants. RESULTS: Of the 378 (59.3%) participants with OGTT-diagnosed diabetes, 224 were confirmed by HbA1c during 4.1 years (SD, 4.1 years) of follow-up. We recorded 942 cardiovascular events over 12.1 years. After adjustment for nonmodifiable risk factors and compared with the 4997 diabetes-free participants, 371 participants with new HbA1c-confirmed diabetes and 405 participants with preexisting diabetes had increased risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.12-2.10] and 1.85 [95% CI, 1.50-2.28], respectively). The corresponding hazard ratios in the analysis of incident chronic kidney disease (487 cases; follow-up, 6.6 years) were 1.69 (95% CI, 1.09-2.62) for 282 participants with new HbA1c-confirmed diabetes and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.22-2.28) for 276 participants with preexisting diabetes. In both analyses, OGTT cases with nondiagnostic HbA1c (n=149 and 107) had a risk (hazard ratio, 0.99-1.07) similar to that of the diabetes-free population. CONCLUSIONS: More than 40% of OGTT-diagnosed diabetes cases were not confirmed by HbA1c during an extended follow-up. However, because these individuals have a risk of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease similar to that of the diabetes-free population, replacement of OGTT with HbA1c-based diagnosis appears justified.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Diabetes Mellitus , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic , Blood Glucose , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnosis , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Female , Glucose Tolerance Test , Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis , Humans , Male , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing is a promising tool for cardiovascular risk prediction, but whether serial testing can dynamically predict risk is uncertain. We evaluated the trajectory of cardiac troponin I in the years prior to a cardiovascular event in the general population, and determine whether serial measurements could track risk within individuals. METHODS: In the Whitehall II cohort, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured on three occasions over a 15-year period. Time trajectories of troponin were constructed in those who died from cardiovascular disease compared to those who survived or died from other causes during follow up and these were externally validated in the HUNT Study. A joint model that adjusts for cardiovascular risk factors was used to estimate risk of cardiovascular death using serial troponin measurements. RESULTS: In 7,293 individuals (mean 58 ± 7 years, 29.4% women) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death occurred in 281 (3.9%) and 914 (12.5%) individuals (median follow-up 21.4 years), respectively. Troponin concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease with a steeper trajectory compared to those surviving or dying from other causes in Whitehall and HUNT (Pinteraction < 0.05 for both). The joint model demonstrated an independent association between temporal evolution of troponin and risk of cardiovascular death (HR per doubling, 1.45, 95% CI,1.33-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac troponin I concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease compared to those surviving or dying from other causes over the preceding decades. Serial cardiac troponin testing in the general population has potential to track future cardiovascular risk.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Humans , Female , Male , Longitudinal Studies , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Troponin I , Biomarkers , Cohort Studies , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
Parents' alcohol use is associated with alcohol use of their adolescent offspring, but does this association extend to the adulthood of the offspring? We examined associations of paternal and maternal problem drinking with lifetime problem drinking of their adult offspring prospectively assessed in a population-based Finnish twin-family cohort (FinnTwin16). Problem drinking (Malmö-modified Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test) was self-reported separately by mothers and fathers when their children were 16. The children reported on an extended lifetime version of the same measure during their mid-twenties (21-28 years) and mid-thirties (31-37 years). 1235 sons and 1461 daughters in mid-twenties and 991 sons and 1278 daughters in mid-thirties had complete data. Correlations between fathers' and their adult children's problem drinking ranged from .12 to .18. For mothers and their adult children, these correlations ranged from .09 to .14. In multivariate models, adjustment for potential confounders had little effect on the observed associations. In this study, parental problem drinking was modestly associated with lifetime problem drinking of their adult children. This association could be detected even when the children had reached the fourth decade of life.
Subject(s)
Alcoholism , Male , Adult , Female , Adolescent , Humans , Alcoholism/epidemiology , Alcoholism/genetics , Adult Children , Fathers , Parents , Mothers , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiologyABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Plasma proteins affect biological processes and are common drug targets but their role in the development of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias remains unclear. We examined associations between 4953 plasma proteins and cognitive decline and risk of dementia in two cohort studies with 20-year follow-ups. METHODS: In the Whitehall II prospective cohort study proteins were measured using SOMAscan technology. Cognitive performance was tested five times over 20 years. Linkage to electronic health records identified incident dementia. The results were replicated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. RESULTS: Fifteen non-amyloid/non-tau-related proteins were associated with cognitive decline and dementia, were consistently identified in both cohorts, and were not explained by known dementia risk factors. Levels of six of the proteins are modifiable by currently approved medications for other conditions. DISCUSSION: This study identified several plasma proteins in dementia-free people that are associated with long-term risk of cognitive decline and dementia.
Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease , Atherosclerosis , Cognitive Dysfunction , Dementia , Atherosclerosis/epidemiology , Blood Proteins , Cognitive Dysfunction/epidemiology , Dementia/epidemiology , Humans , Prospective Studies , tau ProteinsABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Conventional risk factors targeted by prevention (e.g., low education, smoking, and obesity) are associated with a 1.2- to 2-fold increased risk of dementia. It is unclear whether having a physical disease is an equally important risk factor for dementia. METHODS: In this exploratory multicohort study of 283,414 community-dwelling participants, we examined 22 common hospital-treated physical diseases as risk factors for dementia. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 19 years, a total of 3416 participants developed dementia. Those who had erysipelas (hazard ratio = 1.82; 95% confidence interval = 1.53 to 2.17), hypothyroidism (1.94; 1.59 to 2.38), myocardial infarction (1.41; 1.20 to 1.64), ischemic heart disease (1.32; 1.18 to 1.49), cerebral infarction (2.44; 2.14 to 2.77), duodenal ulcers (1.88; 1.42 to 2.49), gastritis and duodenitis (1.82; 1.46 to 2.27), or osteoporosis (2.38; 1.75 to 3.23) were at a significantly increased risk of dementia. These associations were not explained by conventional risk factors or reverse causation. DISCUSSION: In addition to conventional risk factors, several physical diseases may increase the long-term risk of dementia.
Subject(s)
Chronic Disease/epidemiology , Dementia/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Independent Living , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Finland/epidemiology , Heart Diseases , Humans , Hypothyroidism , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , United Kingdom/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Ageing hallmarks, characterising features of cellular ageing, have a role in the pathophysiology of many age-related diseases. We examined whether obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing such hallmark-related diseases. METHODS: In this multicohort study, we included people aged 38-72 years with data on weight, height, and waist circumference measured during a clinical examination at baseline between March 13, 2006, and Oct 1, 2010, from the UK Biobank with follow-up until Nov 12, 2021. To test reproducibility of the findings (replication analysis), we used data from people aged 40 years or older included in the Finnish Public Sector study and the Finnish Health and Social Support study who responded to the study surveys, had data on BMI, and were successfully linked to electronic health records from national registers up to Dec 31, 2016. Obesity and clinical characteristics were assessed at baseline. Via linkage to national health records, participants were followed up for 83 diseases related to nine ageing hallmarks (genomic instability, telomere attrition, epigenetic alterations, loss of proteostasis, deregulated nutrient sensing, mitochondrial dysfunction, cellular senescence, stem cell exhaustion, and altered intercellular communication). Outcomes were the first instance of hallmark-related disease, in addition to co-occurrence of three or more hallmark-related diseases and mortality. FINDINGS: 496â530 adults (mean age 57·0 years [SD 8·1]) from the UK Biobank were included in the primary analysis, and 83â249 (mean age 48·2 years [6·4]) adults from the Finnish cohorts were included in the replication analysis. Median follow-up was 12·7 years (IQR 12·0-13·4) in the UK Biobank and 14·0 years (8·0-15·0) in the Finnish cohorts. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and depression, UK Biobank participants with obesity (BMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) had a 1·40 (95% CI 1·38-1·41) times higher hazard ratio for the first hallmark-related disease than those with a healthy weight (BMI 18·5-24·9 kg/m2). The corresponding hazard ratios for three co-occurring diseases were 2·92 (95% CI 2·64-3·22) for deregulated nutrient sensing, 2·73 (2·46-3·02) for telomere attrition, 2·33 (2·10-2·60) for epigenetic alterations, 2·30 (2·14-2·48) for mitochondrial dysfunction, 2·23 (2·04-2·45) for stem cell exhaustion, 2·02 (1·89-2·16) for altered intercellular communication, 2·01 (1·89-2·15) for cellular senescence, 1·83 (1·67-2·00) for loss of proteostasis, and 1·39 (1·27-1·52) for genomic instability. These findings were replicated in the Finnish cohorts. In both studies, the associations between other risk factors (low education, unhealthy dietary factors [available only in the UK Biobank], smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and depression) and hallmark-related diseases were weaker than those with obesity. 45-60% of the excess mortality in people with obesity was attributable to hallmark-related diseases. INTERPRETATION: Obesity might have an important role in the development of diseases associated with cellular ageing. Tackling ageing mechanisms could potentially help to reduce the disease and mortality burden resulting from the obesity epidemic. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, US National Institute on Aging, Academy of Finland, and Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research. TRANSLATIONS: For the German and Finnish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Subject(s)
Cellular Senescence , Obesity , Humans , Obesity/epidemiology , Obesity/pathology , Middle Aged , Male , Female , Aged , Adult , Finland/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Risk Factors , Aging , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Body Mass IndexABSTRACT
Infections have been associated with the incidence of Alzheimer disease and related dementias, but the mechanisms responsible for these associations remain unclear. Using a multicohort approach, we found that influenza, viral, respiratory, and skin and subcutaneous infections were associated with increased long-term dementia risk. These infections were also associated with region-specific brain volume loss, most commonly in the temporal lobe. We identified 260 out of 942 immunologically relevant proteins in plasma that were differentially expressed in individuals with an infection history. Of the infection-related proteins, 35 predicted volumetric changes in brain regions vulnerable to infection-specific atrophy. Several of these proteins, including PIK3CG, PACSIN2, and PRKCB, were related to cognitive decline and plasma biomarkers of dementia (Aß42/40, GFAP, NfL, pTau-181). Genetic variants that influenced expression of immunologically relevant infection-related proteins, including ITGB6 and TLR5, predicted brain volume loss. Our findings support the role of infections in dementia risk and identify molecular mediators by which infections may contribute to neurodegeneration.
ABSTRACT
Importance: The clinical value of current multifactorial algorithms for individualized assessment of dementia risk remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate the clinical value associated with 4 widely used dementia risk scores in estimating 10-year dementia risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective population-based UK Biobank cohort study assessed 4 dementia risk scores at baseline (2006-2010) and ascertained incident dementia during the following 10 years. Replication with a 20-year follow-up was based on the British Whitehall II study. For both analyses, participants who had no dementia at baseline, had complete data on at least 1 dementia risk score, and were linked to electronic health records from hospitalizations or mortality were included. Data analysis was conducted from July 5, 2022, to April 20, 2023. Exposures: Four existing dementia risk scores: the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE)-Clinical score, the CAIDE-APOE-supplemented score, the Brief Dementia Screening Indicator (BDSI), and the Australian National University Alzheimer Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI). Main Outcomes and Measures: Dementia was ascertained from linked electronic health records. To evaluate how well each score predicted the 10-year risk of dementia, concordance (C) statistics, detection rate, false-positive rate, and the ratio of true to false positives were calculated for each risk score and for a model including age alone. Results: Of 465â¯929 UK Biobank participants without dementia at baseline (mean [SD] age, 56.5 [8.1] years; range, 38-73 years; 252â¯778 [54.3%] female participants), 3421 were diagnosed with dementia at follow-up (7.5 per 10â¯000 person-years). If the threshold for a positive test result was calibrated to achieve a 5% false-positive rate, all 4 risk scores detected 9% to 16% of incident dementia and therefore missed 84% to 91% (failure rate). The corresponding failure rate was 84% for a model that included age only. For a positive test result calibrated to detect at least half of future incident dementia, the ratio of true to false positives ranged between 1 to 66 (for CAIDE-APOE-supplemented) and 1 to 116 (for ANU-ADRI). For age alone, the ratio was 1 to 43. The C statistic was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) for the CAIDE clinical version, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.73) for the CAIDE-APOE-supplemented, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69) for BDSI, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.58-0.60) for ANU-ADRI, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.79-0.80) for age alone. Similar C statistics were seen for 20-year dementia risk in the Whitehall II study cohort, which included 4865 participants (mean [SD] age, 54.9 [5.9] years; 1342 [27.6%] female participants). In a subgroup analysis of same-aged participants aged 65 (±1) years, discriminatory capacity of risk scores was low (C statistics between 0.52 and 0.60). Conclusions and Relevance: In these cohort studies, individualized assessments of dementia risk using existing risk prediction scores had high error rates. These findings suggest that the scores were of limited value in targeting people for dementia prevention. Further research is needed to develop more accurate algorithms for estimation of dementia risk.
Subject(s)
Aging , Apolipoproteins E , Humans , Female , Middle Aged , Male , Australia , Cohort Studies , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
A diverse set of biological processes have been implicated in the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias. However, there is limited understanding of the peripheral biological mechanisms relevant in the earliest phases of the disease. Here, we used a large-scale proteomics platform to examine the association of 4877 plasma proteins with 25-year dementia risk in 10,981 middle-aged adults. We found 32 dementia-associated plasma proteins that were involved in proteostasis, immunity, synaptic function, and extracellular matrix organization. We then replicated the association between 15 of these proteins and clinically relevant neurocognitive outcomes in two independent cohorts. We demonstrated that 12 of these 32 dementia-associated proteins were associated with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of AD, neurodegeneration, or neuroinflammation. We found that eight of these candidate protein markers were abnormally expressed in human postmortem brain tissue from patients with AD, although some of the proteins that were most strongly associated with dementia risk, such as GDF15, were not detected in these brain tissue samples. Using network analyses, we found a protein signature for dementia risk that was characterized by dysregulation of specific immune and proteostasis/autophagy pathways in adults in midlife ~20 years before dementia onset, as well as abnormal coagulation and complement signaling ~10 years before dementia onset. Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization genetically validated nine of our candidate proteins as markers of AD in midlife and inferred causality of SERPINA3 in AD pathogenesis. Last, we prioritized a set of candidate markers for AD and dementia risk prediction in midlife.
Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease , Proteomics , Middle Aged , Humans , Adult , Alzheimer Disease/genetics , Alzheimer Disease/pathology , Amyloid beta-Peptides/metabolism , tau Proteins/metabolism , Brain/metabolism , Biomarkers/metabolismABSTRACT
Identifying circulating proteins associated with cognitive function may point to biomarkers and molecular process of cognitive impairment. Few studies have investigated the association between circulating proteins and cognitive function. We identify 246 protein measures quantified by the SomaScan assay as associated with cognitive function (p < 4.9E-5, n up to 7289). Of these, 45 were replicated using SomaScan data, and three were replicated using Olink data at Bonferroni-corrected significance. Enrichment analysis linked the proteins associated with general cognitive function to cell signaling pathways and synapse architecture. Mendelian randomization analysis implicated higher levels of NECTIN2, a protein mediating viral entry into neuronal cells, with higher Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk (p = 2.5E-26). Levels of 14 other protein measures were implicated as consequences of AD susceptibility (p < 2.0E-4). Proteins implicated as causes or consequences of AD susceptibility may provide new insight into the potential relationship between immunity and AD susceptibility as well as potential therapeutic targets.
Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease , Cognitive Dysfunction , Middle Aged , Humans , Aged , Cognition , Neurons , BiomarkersABSTRACT
A 27-protein signature has been proposed to predict cardiovascular disease, but its applicability in clinical decision-making remains unclear.
Subject(s)
Decision Making , ProteomicsABSTRACT
Immune system and blood-brain barrier dysfunction are implicated in the development of Alzheimer's and other dementia-causing diseases, but their causal role remains unknown. We performed Mendelian randomization for 1,827 immune system- and blood-brain barrier-related biomarkers and identified 127 potential causal risk factors for dementia-causing diseases. Pathway analyses linked these biomarkers to amyloid-ß, tau and α-synuclein pathways and to autoimmunity-related processes. A phenome-wide analysis using Mendelian randomization-based polygenic risk score in the FinnGen study (n = 339,233) for the biomarkers indicated shared genetic background for dementias and autoimmune diseases. This association was further supported by human leukocyte antigen analyses. In inverse-probability-weighted analyses that simulate randomized controlled drug trials in observational data, anti-inflammatory methotrexate treatment reduced the incidence of Alzheimer's disease in high-risk individuals (hazard ratio compared with no treatment, 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.49-0.88, P = 0.005). These converging results from different lines of human research suggest that autoimmunity is a modifiable component in dementia-causing diseases.
Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease , Autoimmune Diseases , Humans , Autoimmunity/genetics , Mendelian Randomization Analysis , Alzheimer Disease/epidemiology , Biomarkers , Autoimmune Diseases/epidemiology , Immune SystemABSTRACT
The implementation of recommendations for type 2 diabetes (T2D) screening and diagnosis focuses on the measurement of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting glucose. This approach leaves a large number of individuals with isolated impaired glucose tolerance (iIGT), who are only detectable through oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), at risk of diabetes and its severe complications. We applied machine learning to the proteomic profiles of a single fasted sample from 11,546 participants of the Fenland study to test discrimination of iIGT defined using the gold-standard OGTTs. We observed significantly improved discriminative performance by adding only three proteins (RTN4R, CBPM and GHR) to the best clinical model (AUROC = 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.86), P = 0.004), which we validated in an external cohort. Increased plasma levels of these candidate proteins were associated with an increased risk for future T2D in an independent cohort and were also increased in individuals genetically susceptible to impaired glucose homeostasis and T2D. Assessment of a limited number of proteins can identify individuals likely to be missed by current diagnostic strategies and at high risk of T2D and its complications.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Glucose Intolerance , Humans , Glucose Intolerance/diagnosis , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/diagnosis , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Proteomics , Glucose Tolerance Test , FastingABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The accumulation of disparate diseases in complex multimorbidity makes prevention difficult if each disease is targeted separately. We aimed to examine obesity as a shared risk factor for common diseases, determine associations between obesity-related diseases, and examine the role of obesity in the development of complex multimorbidity (four or more comorbid diseases). METHODS: We did an observational study and used pooled prospective data from two Finnish cohort studies (the Health and Social Support Study and the Finnish Public Sector Study) comprising 114 657 adults aged 16-78 years at study entry (1998-2013). A cohort of 499 357 adults (aged 38-73 years at study entry; 2006-10) from the UK Biobank provided replication in an independent population. BMI and clinical characteristics were assessed at baseline. BMIs were categorised as obesity (≥30·0 kg/m2), overweight (25·0-29·9 kg/m2), healthy weight (18·5-24·9 kg/m2), and underweight (<18·5 kg/m2). Via linkage to national health records, participants were followed-up for death and diseases diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs and population attributable fractions (PAFs) for associations between BMI and multimorbidity were calculated. FINDINGS: Mean follow-up duration was 12·1 years (SD 3·8) in the Finnish cohorts and 11·8 years (1·7) in the UK Biobank cohort. Obesity was associated with 21 non-overlapping cardiometabolic, digestive, respiratory, neurological, musculoskeletal, and infectious diseases after Bonferroni multiple testing adjustment and ignoring HRs of less than 1·50. Compared with healthy weight, the confounder-adjusted HR for obesity was 2·83 (95% CI 2·74-2·93; PAF 19·9% [95% CI 19·3-20·5]) for developing at least one obesity-related disease, 5·17 (4·84-5·53; 34·4% [33·2-35·5]) for two diseases, and 12·39 (9·26-16·58; 55·2% [50·9-57·5]) for complex multimorbidity. The proportion of participants of healthy weight with complex multimorbidity by age 75 years was observed by age 55 years in participants with obesity, and degree of obesity was associated with complex multimorbidity in a dose-response relationship. Compared with obesity, the association between overweight and complex multimorbidity was more modest (HR 2·67, 95% CI 1·94-3·68; PAF 13·3% [95% CI 9·6-16·3]). The same pattern of results was observed in the UK Biobank cohort. INTERPRETATION: Obesity is associated with diverse, increasing disease burdens, and might represent an important target for multimorbidity prevention that avoids the complexities of multitarget preventive regimens. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute on Aging.
Subject(s)
Multimorbidity , Obesity , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Body Mass Index , Humans , Middle Aged , Obesity/complications , Obesity/epidemiology , Overweight/complications , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Aortic pulse wave velocity is a noninvasive measure of aortic stiffness and arterial aging. Its current value in cardiovascular risk estimation practice is unknown. We aimed to establish whether aortic pulse wave velocity identified individuals with higher risk of incident major adverse cardiovascular events and improved performance of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score. METHODS: This prospective analysis included 3837 Whitehall II cohort participants screened in 2008 to 2009, and followed for 11.7 years (mean=10.3, SD=1.81), without history of stroke, myocardial infarction, or coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Mean age of the sample was 65.0 years (SD=5.6), 2831 participants (73.8%) were male and mean atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score was 13.8%. At the end of follow-up, 411 individuals (10.7%) had suffered a major cardiovascular event. Those in the highest aortic pulse wave velocity quartile were at high risk (hazard ratio, 2.99 [95% CI, 2.25-3.97]) and reached the threshold for statin medication (7.5% risk) after 5 years whereas others reached it after 10 years (difference P<0.001). The addition of aortic pulse wave velocity to the risk score improved the C statistic (0.68 versus 0.67, P=0.03) and net reclassification index (4.6%, P=0.04 and 11.3%, P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that aortic stiffness predicted major adverse cardiovascular events in a cohort of elderly individuals, improving the performance of a widely used cardiovascular disease risk estimator. Aortic pulse wave velocity measurement is scalable, radiation-free, and easy to perform. Further studies on its applicability in cardiovascular disease risk assessment in primary care settings are needed.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Vascular Stiffness , Aged , Aorta , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Prospective Studies , Pulse Wave Analysis , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
Hypertension is the main modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality but discovering molecular mechanisms for targeted treatment has been challenging. Here we investigate associations of blood metabolite markers with hypertension by integrating data from nine intercontinental cohorts from the COnsortium of METabolomics Studies. We included 44,306 individuals with circulating metabolites (up to 813). Metabolites were aligned and inverse normalised to allow intra-platform comparison. Logistic models adjusting for covariates were performed in each cohort and results were combined using random-effect inverse-variance meta-analyses adjusting for multiple testing. We further conducted canonical pathway analysis to investigate the pathways underlying the hypertension-associated metabolites. In 12,479 hypertensive cases and 31,827 controls without renal impairment, we identified 38 metabolites, associated with hypertension after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, and multiple testing. Of these, 32 metabolite associations, predominantly lipid (steroids and fatty acyls) and organic acids (amino-, hydroxy-, and keto-acids) remained after further adjusting for comorbidities and dietary intake. Among the identified metabolites, 5 were novel, including 2 bile acids, 2 glycerophospholipids, and ketoleucine. Pathway analysis further implicates the role of the amino-acids, serine/glycine, and bile acids in hypertension regulation. In the largest cross-sectional hypertension-metabolomics study to date, we identify 32 circulating metabolites (of which 5 novel and 27 confirmed) that are potentially actionable targets for intervention. Further in-vivo studies are needed to identify their specific role in the aetiology or progression of hypertension.