Mortality prediction following non-traumatic amputation of the lower extremity.

BACKGROUND: Patients who undergo lower extremity amputation secondary to the complications of diabetes or peripheral artery disease have poor long-term survival. Providing patients and surgeons with individual-patient, rather than population, survival estimates provides them with important information to make individualized treatment decisions. METHODS: Patients with peripheral artery disease and/or diabetes undergoing their first unilateral transmetatarsal, transtibial or transfemoral amputation were identified in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database. Stepdown logistic regression was used to develop a 1-year mortality risk prediction model from a list of 33 candidate predictors using data from three of five Department of Veterans Affairs national geographical regions. External geographical validation was performed using data from the remaining two regions. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the development and validation samples. RESULTS: The development sample included 5028 patients and the validation sample 2140. The final mortality prediction model (AMPREDICT-Mortality) included amputation level, age, BMI, race, functional status, congestive heart failure, dialysis, blood urea nitrogen level, and white blood cell and platelet counts. The model fit in the validation sample was good. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the validation sample was 0·76 and Cox calibration regression indicated excellent calibration (slope 0·96, 95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 1·06; intercept 0·02, 95 per cent c.i. -0·12 to 0·17). Given the external validation characteristics, the development and validation samples were combined, giving a total sample of 7168. CONCLUSION: The AMPREDICT-Mortality prediction model is a validated parsimonious model that can be used to inform the 1-year mortality risk following non-traumatic lower extremity amputation of patients with peripheral artery disease or diabetes.

Predicting reamputation risk in patients undergoing lower extremity amputation due to the complications of peripheral artery disease and/or diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing amputation of the lower extremity for the complications of peripheral artery disease and/or diabetes are at risk of treatment failure and the need for reamputation at a higher level. The aim of this study was to develop a patient-specific reamputation risk prediction model. METHODS: Patients with incident unilateral transmetatarsal, transtibial or transfemoral amputation between 2004 and 2014 secondary to diabetes and/or peripheral artery disease, and who survived 12 months after amputation, were identified using Veterans Health Administration databases. Procedure codes and natural language processing were used to define subsequent ipsilateral reamputation at the same or higher level. Stepdown logistic regression was used to develop the prediction model. It was then evaluated for calibration and discrimination by evaluating the goodness of fit, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and discrimination slope. RESULTS: Some 5260 patients were identified, of whom 1283 (24·4 per cent) underwent ipsilateral reamputation in the 12 months after initial amputation. Crude reamputation risks were 40·3, 25·9 and 9·7 per cent in the transmetatarsal, transtibial and transfemoral groups respectively. The final prediction model included 11 predictors (amputation level, sex, smoking, alcohol, rest pain, use of outpatient anticoagulants, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, white blood cell count, kidney failure and previous revascularization), along with four interaction terms. Evaluation of the prediction characteristics indicated good model calibration with goodness-of-fit testing, good discrimination (AUC 0·72) and a discrimination slope of 11·2 per cent. CONCLUSION: A prediction model was developed to calculate individual risk of primary healing failure and the need for reamputation surgery at each amputation level. This model may assist clinical decision-making regarding amputation-level selection.

Weight change following US military service.

BACKGROUND: Although overweight and obesity are less prevalent among active-duty military personnel compared with similar persons not serving in the military, no such differences have been observed between veterans and non-veterans. OBJECTIVES: To assess the magnitude of weight changes before, concurrent with and following discharge from the military, relative to weight during service, and to determine the demographic, service-related and psychological characteristics associated with clinically important weight gain among those who were discharged from military service during follow-up. METHODS: Eligible Millennium Cohort Study participants (n=38 686) completed the questionnaires approximately every 3 years (2001, 2004 and 2007) that were used to estimate annual weight changes, as well as the percentage experiencing clinically important weight gain, defined as 10%. Analyses were stratified by sex. RESULTS: Weight gain was greatest around the time of discharge from service and in the 3 years before discharge (1.0-1.3 kg per year), while it was nearly half as much during service (0.6-0.7 kg per year) and 3 years after service ended (0.7 kg per year). Consequently, 6-year weight gain was over 2 kg greater in those who were discharged compared with those who remained in the military during follow-up (5.7 vs 3.5 kg in men; 6.3 vs 4.0 kg in women). In those who were discharged, younger age, less education, being overweight at baseline, being in the active-duty component (vs Reserve/National Guard) and having experienced deployment with combat exposures (vs non-deployment) were associated with increased risks of clinically important weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospectively collected evidence for an increased rate of weight gain around the time of military discharge that may explain previously reported higher rates of obesity in veterans, and identifies characteristics of higher-risk groups. Discharge from military service presents a window of risk and opportunity to prevent unhealthy weight gain in military personnel and veterans.

Primary cesarean section and adverse delivery outcomes among women of very advanced maternal age.

OBJECTIVE: To assess associations between primary cesarean delivery and adverse delivery outcomes with very advanced maternal age. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a population-based cohort study including 78,880 births to mothers 25 years and older with singleton births from 2003 to 2012 using Washington State birth certificates and hospital discharge data, excluding births to women with a prior cesarean section. The primary outcome was mode of delivery. Secondary outcomes included maternal transfusion, chorioamnionitis, severe perineal lacerations and prolonged length of stay. Outcomes of births to women of advanced maternal age (35 to 39, 40 to 44) and very advanced maternal age (45 to 49, ⩾50) were compared with referent births among women aged 25 to 34 years. General linear models with a log-link function were used to calculate unadjusted and adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULT: Proportions and risks of primary cesarean section increased with age (25 to 34 years, referent: 20.0%; 35 to 39 years: 25.9%, relative risk (RR)=1.25 (95% CI=1.20 to 1.29); 40 to 44 years: 30.9%, RR=1.45 (95% CI=1.40 to 1.50); 45 to 49 years: 35.7%, RR=1.59 (95% CI=1.45 to 1.75); and ⩾50 years: 60.7%, RR=2.44 (95% CI=1.95 to 3.05); P-trend <0.001). Associations did not differ between primiparous and multiparous women. No differences were noted for measures of maternal morbidity, except there was a trend of increasing risk of prolonged length of stay among births to older women (P-trend <0.001). CONCLUSION: Primary cesarean delivery risk continues to increase above age 35 regardless of prior vaginal birth, with the highest risk among women aged 50 years and older.

Weight loss intention, dietary behaviors, and barriers to dietary change in veterans with lower extremity amputations.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is thought to be highly prevalent in persons with lower extremity amputations (LEAs) and can impair physical and social functioning. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of weight loss intention, weight loss strategies, dietary patterns, and barriers to making dietary changes, and their associations with body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)), amputation characteristics, health status, and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study (n = 150) using data from a self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: 43% of participants were obese and 48% were trying to lose weight; 83% of those trying to lose weight reported trying to "eat differently", but only 7% were following a comprehensive weight loss program involving dietary changes, physical activity, and behavioral counseling. 21% of participants reported ≥ 6 barriers to changing their eating habits (e.g., habit, too little money, stress/depression). Obesity was associated with younger age, lower physical health scores, hypertension, arthritis, and diabetes. Compared to those not trying to lose weight, a greater proportion of those trying to lose weight had a BMI ≥ 35 kg/m(2), age <55 years, higher physical and mental health scores, and more frequent consumption of vegetables, beans, chicken, and fish. CONCLUSIONS: Though over half of overweight and obese individuals with LEA were trying to lose weight, few reported following a comprehensive program to lose weight, which may indicate an unmet need for services for this group. To be effective, these programs will need to address the complex physical and mental health challenges that many of these individuals face.

Sleep, ghrelin, leptin and changes in body weight during a 1-year moderate-intensity physical activity intervention.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships among exercise, sleep, ghrelin and leptin. METHODS: We randomly assigned 173 post-menopausal sedentary overweight (body mass index >or=24.0 kg/m(2) and >33% body fat) women aged 50-75 years living in western Washington State to either a facility- and home-based moderate-intensity physical activity intervention or a stretching control group. Fasting plasma ghrelin, leptin, measured height, weight and self-reported sleep were assessed at baseline and 12 months. RESULTS: There were no consistent cross-sectional patterns between self-reported sleep measures and ghrelin or leptin at baseline. The weight loss differences between exercisers and stretchers were greater for those who slept less at follow-up than at baseline compared to those whose sleep duration did not change (-3.2 kg, 95% confidence interval (CI) -5.8, -0.5). Improvements in sleep quality were associated with significantly greater differences between exercisers and stretchers for ghrelin increases (improved vs same sleep quality: +115 pg/ml, 95% CI +25, +206) and leptin decreases (improved vs worsened sleep quality: -5.7 ng/ml, 95% CI -9.5, -1.5). CONCLUSION: There was only limited evidence that changes in sleep duration or quality modified exercise-induced changes in weight, ghrelin or leptin. Moreover, the observed differences were not in the directions hypothesized. Future longitudinal studies including population-based samples using objective measures of sleep and long follow-up may help to clarify these relationships.

Effects of physical activity intensity, frequency, and activity type on 10-y weight change in middle-aged men and women.

BACKGROUND: Increased physical activity is often recommended for weight maintenance and loss. OBJECTIVE: To examine how intensity, frequency, and type of recreational physical activity are associated with weight gain attenuation over a 10-y period. PARTICIPANTS: Over 15 000 adults between 53 and 57 y living in western Washington State recruited between 2000 and 2002. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported measures of physical activity (using a questionnaire), height, and weight. METHODS: We examined associations between physical activity and weight change after age 45 y. All analyses controlled for age at baseline, weight at age 45 y (continuous), diet, education, smoking, and weight change between ages 30 and 45 y, and were stratified by sex and body mass index (BMI) at age 45 y (normal weight, overweight, or obese). RESULTS: Increasing MET-hours and sessions per week of high-, moderate- and low-intensity activities over 10 y were inversely related to weight gain after age 45 y. Generally, associations were stronger for women than for men and for obese compared to normal weight or overweight individuals. Obese women and men who participated in 75-100 min per week of fast walking gained 9 and 5 pound less than nonwalkers, respectively, and lesser amounts in normal weight and overweight women and men. Jogging, aerobics, and fast cycling were associated with weight gain attenuation in most sex and age 45 y BMI groups, while slow walking, swimming, and weight lifting were not. CONCLUSIONS: In this free-living population, long-term, regular physical activity, particularly common activities carried out at a moderate intensity such as walking, prevented some of the weight gain associated with aging.

The association of dietary fat and plant foods with endometrial cancer (United States).

OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations of dietary fat and selected plant foods with endometrial cancer in a population-based case-control study. METHODS: Six hundred and seventy-nine incident cases of endometrial cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 1991, and 944 population-based controls completed a 98-item semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire and a detailed in-person interview which collected information on endometrial cancer risk factors. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) of endometrial cancer, adjusted for age, county, energy intake, hormone use, smoking and, in separate models, for body mass index (BMI: kg/m2). RESULTS: Percent energy from fat was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer (highest quintile cf. lowest: OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-2.6), with saturated and monounsaturated fats being the main contributors of risk. There was a stronger association between dietary fat and endometrial cancer among groups with higher circulating estrogen levels (i.e. women with higher BMI, users of unopposed estrogens, non-smokers, and younger age at menarche). Consumption of fruits or vegetables was inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk (highest quintile cf. lowest: OR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.46-0.93 and OR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.43-0.88, respectively). Further adjustment for BMI resulted in little or no attenuation of the ORs and associated CIs. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide support for the theory that a low-fat, high-fruit and high-vegetable diet may reduce the risk of endometrial cancer, and that these dietary factors may act independently of the effect of BMI.

Recreational physical activity and endometrial cancer risk.

To investigate the association between recreational physical activity and endometrial cancer risk, a population-based case-control study was conducted in Washington State. The study included 822 incident cases of endometrial cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 1991 and 1,111 randomly selected population-based controls. Detailed information on recreational physical activities as well as other endometrial cancer risk factors was obtained in structured, in-person interviews. Unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for age, county, energy intake, unopposed estrogen use, income, and, in separate models, body mass index (kg/m(2)), was used to estimate the odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals, relating endometrial cancer to each level of physical activity. A greater proportion of controls (49.3%) than cases (40.5%) reported doing regular exercise (compared with no exercise: adjusted odds ratio = 0.62, 95% confidence interval: 0.51, 0.76) in the 2-year period prior to diagnosis date. There was little evidence of a trend of decreasing risk with increasing duration or intensity of recreational physical activities. These results provide support for an association between the lack of recent recreational physical activity and endometrial cancer risk. However, the absence of a difference by duration or intensity levels and the inconsistent results from other studies suggest caution before interpreting this association as causal.