Point-of-care testing for adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest resuscitated at the ED to predict ROSC: Development and external validation of POC-ED-ROSC model.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Most prediction models, like return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after cardiac arrest (RACA) or Utstein-based (UB)-ROSC score, were developed for prehospital settings to predict the probability of ROSC in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). A prediction model has been lacking for the probability of ROSC in patients with OHCA at emergency departments (EDs). OBJECTIVE: In the present study, a point-of-care (POC) testing-based model, POC-ED-ROSC, was developed and validated for predicting ROSC of OHCA at EDs. DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospectively collected data for adult OHCA patients between 2015 and 2020 were analysed. POC blood gas analysis obtained within 5 min of ED arrival was used. OUTCOMES MEASURE AND ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was ROSC. In the derivation cohort, multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the POC-ED-ROSC model. In the temporally split validation cohort, the discriminative performance of the POC-ED-ROSC model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and compared with RACA or UB-ROSC score using DeLong test. MAIN RESULTS: The study included 606 and 270 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the total cohort, 471 patients achieved ROSC. Age, initial cardiac rhythm at ED, pre-hospital resuscitation duration, and POC testing-measured blood levels of lactate, potassium and glucose were significant predictors included in the POC-ED-ROSC model. The model was validated with fair discriminative performance (AUC: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.81) with no significant differences from RACA (AUC: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.62-0.74) or UB-ROSC score (AUC: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.68-0.79). CONCLUSION: Using only six easily accessible variables, the POC-ED-ROSC model can predict ROSC for OHCA resuscitated at ED with fair accuracy.

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in United States emergency departments, 2010-2018.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the recent status of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in the U.S. emergency department (ED). This study aimed to describe the disease burden (visit and hospitalization rate) of AECOPD in the ED and to investigate factors associated with the disease burden of AECOPD. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), 2010-2018. Adult ED visits (aged 40 years or above) with AECOPD were identified using International Classification of Diseases codes. Analysis used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression accounting for NHAMCS's complex survey design. RESULTS: There were 1,366 adult AECOPD ED visits in the unweighted sample. Over the 9-year study period, there were an estimated 7,508,000 ED visits for AECOPD, and the proportion of AECOPD visits in the entire ED population remained stable at approximately 14 per 1,000 visits. The mean age of these AECOPD visits was 66 years, and 42% were men. Medicare or Medicaid insurance, presentation in non-summer seasons, the Midwest and South regions (vs. Northeast), and arrival by ambulance were independently associated with a higher visit rate of AECOPD, whereas non-Hispanic black or Hispanic race/ethnicity (vs. non-Hispanic white) was associated with a lower visit rate of AECOPD. The proportion of AECOPD visits that were hospitalized decreased from 51% to 2010 to 31% in 2018 (p = 0.002). Arrival by ambulance was independently associated with a higher hospitalization rate, whereas the South and West regions (vs. Northeast) were independently associated with a lower hospitalization rate. The use of antibiotics appeared to be stable over time, but the use of systemic corticosteroids appeared to increase with near statistical significance (p = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: The number of ED visits for AECOPD remained high; however, hospitalizations for AECOPD appeared to decrease over time. Some patients were disproportionately affected by AECOPD, and certain patient and ED factors were associated with hospitalizations. The reasons for decreased ED admissions for AECOPD deserve further investigation.

Pain trajectories in the emergency department: Patient characteristics and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about pain trajectories in the emergency department (ED), which could inform the heterogeneous response to pain treatment. We aimed to identify clinically relevant subphenotypes of pain resolution in the ED and their relationships with clinical outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center. We retrieved data from 733,398 ED visits over a 7-year period. We selected one ED visit per person and retrieved data including patient demographics, triage data, repeated pain scores evaluated on a numeric rating scale, pain characteristics, laboratory markers, and patient disposition. The primary outcome measures were hospitalization and ED revisit. RESULTS: 28,105 adult ED patients were included with a total of 154,405 pain measurements. Three distinct pain trajectory groups were identified: no pain (57.1%); moderate-to-severe pain, fast resolvers (17.9%); and moderate pain, slow resolvers (24.9%). The fast resolvers responded well to treatment and were independently associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.81). By contrast, the slow resolvers had lingering pain in the ED and were independently associated with a higher risk of ED revisit (aOR, 2.65; 95%CI, 1.85-3.69). This group also had higher levels of inflammatory markers, including a higher leukocyte count and a higher level of C-reactive protein. CONCLUSIONS: We identified three novel pain subphenotypes with distinct patterns in clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. A better understanding of the pain trajectories may help with the personalized approach to pain management in the ED.

Barriers to bystanders defibrillation: A national survey on public awareness and willingness of bystanders defibrillation☆.

BACKGROUND: After years of setting up public automated external defibrillators (AEDs), the rate of bystander AED use remains low all over the world. This study aimed to assess the public awareness and willingness of bystanders to use AEDs and to investigate the awareness on the Good Samaritan Law (GSL) and the factors associated with the low rate of bystander AED use. METHODS: Using stratified random sampling, national telephone interviews were conducted using an author-designed structured questionnaire. The results were weighted to match the census data in Taiwan. The factors associated with public awareness and willingness of bystanders to use AEDs were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1073 respondents, only 15.2% had the confidence to recognise public AEDs, and 5.3% of them had the confidence to use the AED. Concerns on immature technique and legal issues remain the most common barriers to AED use by bystanders. Moreover, only 30.8% thought that the public should use AEDs at the scene. Few respondents (9.6%) ever heard of the GSL in Taiwan, and less than 3% understood the meaning of GSL. Positive awareness on AEDs was associated with high willingness of bystanders to use AEDs. Respondents who were less likely to use AEDs as bystanders were healthcare personnel and women. CONCLUSION: The importance of active awareness and the barriers to the use of AEDs among bystanders seemed to have been underestimated in the past years. The relatively low willingness to use AEDs among bystander healthcare providers and women needs further investigation.

Public knowledge, attitudes and willingness regarding bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation: A nationwide survey in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: A low bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) rate is one of the factors associated with low cardiac arrest survival. This study aimed to assess knowledge, attitudes, and willingness towards performing CPR and the barriers for implementation of bystander-initiated CPR. METHODS: Telephone interviews were conducted using an author-designed and validated structured questionnaire in Taiwan. After obtaining a stratified random sample from the census, the results were weighted to match population data. The factors affecting bystander-initiated CPR were analysed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1073 respondents, half of them stated that they knew how to perform CPR correctly, although 86.7% indicated a willingness to perform CPR on strangers. The barriers to CPR performance reported by the respondents included fear of legal consequences (44%) and concern about harming patients (36.5%). Most participants expressed a willingness to attend only an hour-long CPR course. Respondents who were less likely to indicate a willingness to perform CPR were female, healthcare providers, those who had no cohabiting family members older than 65 years, those who had a history of a stroke, and those who expressed a negative attitude toward CPR. CONCLUSION: The expressed willingness to perform bystander CPR was high if the respondents possessed the required skills. Attempts should be made to recruit potential bystanders for CPR courses or education, targeting those respondent subgroups less likely to express willingness to perform CPR. The reason for lower bystander CPR willingness among healthcare providers deserves further investigation.

A novel depth estimation algorithm of chest compression for feedback of high-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation based on a smartwatch.

INTRODUCTION: High-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a key factor affecting cardiac arrest survival. Accurate monitoring and real-time feedback are emphasized to improve CPR quality. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a novel depth estimation algorithm based on a smartwatch equipped with a built-in accelerometer for feedback instructions during CPR. METHODS: For data collection and model building, researchers wore an Android Wear smartwatch and performed chest compression-only CPR on a Resusci Anne QCPR training manikin. We developed an algorithm based on the assumptions that (1) maximal acceleration measured by the smartwatch accelerometer and the chest compression depth (CCD) are positively correlated and (2) the magnitude of acceleration at a specific time point and interval is correlated with its neighboring points. We defined a statistic value M as a function of time and the magnitude of maximal acceleration. We labeled and processed collected data and determined the relationship between M value, compression rate and CCD. We built a model accordingly, and developed a smartwatch app capable of detecting CCD. For validation, researchers wore a smartwatch with the preinstalled app and performed chest compression-only CPR on the manikin at target sessions. We compared the CCD results given by the smartwatch and the reference using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test (WSRT), and used Bland-Altman (BA) analysis to assess the agreement between the two methods. RESULTS: We analyzed a total of 3978 compressions that covered the target rate of 80-140/min and CCD of 4-7 cm. WSRT showed that there was no significant difference between the two methods (P = 0.084). By BA analysis the mean of differences was 0.003 and the bias between the two methods was not significant (95% CI: -0.079 to 0.085). CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that the algorithm developed for estimating CCD based on a smartwatch with a built-in accelerometer is promising. Further studies will be conducted to evaluate its application for CPR training and clinical practice.

The incidence, predictors, and causes of cardiac arrest in United States emergency departments.

Background: Emergency department cardiac arrest (EDCA) is a global public health challenge associated with high mortality rates and poor neurological outcomes. This study aimed to describe the incidence, risk factors, and causes of EDCA during emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used data from the 2019 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS). Adult ED visits with EDCA were identified using the cardiopulmonary resuscitation code. We used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression, considering NEDS's complex survey design. The primary outcome measure was EDCA incidence. Results: In 2019, there were approximately 232,000 ED visits with cardiac arrest in the U.S. The incidence rate of EDCA was approximately 0.2%. Older age, being male, black race, low median household income, weekend ED visits, having Medicare insurance, and ED visits in non-summer seasons were associated with a higher risk of EDCA. Hispanic race was associated with a lower risk of EDCA. Certain comorbidities (e.g., diabetes and cancer), trauma centers, hospitals with a metropolitan and/or teaching program, and hospitals in the South were associated with a higher risk of EDCA. Depression, dementia, and hypothyroidism were associated with a lower risk of EDCA. Septicemia, acute myocardial infarction, and respiratory failure, followed by drug overdose, were the predominant causes of EDCA. Conclusions: Some patients were disproportionately affected by EDCA. Strategies should be developed to target these modifiable risk factors, specifically factors within ED's control, to reduce the subsequent disease burden.

Prognostic Impact of Heart Rhythm Shockability Trajectory in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between the temporal transitions in heart rhythms during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. METHODS: This was an analysis of the prospectively collected databases in 3 academic hospitals in northern and central Taiwan. Adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest transported by emergency medical service between 2015 and 2022 were included. Favorable neurological recovery and survival to hospital discharge were the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. Time-specific heart rhythm shockability was defined as the probability of shockable rhythms at a particular time point during CPR. The temporal changes in the time-specific heart rhythm shockability were calculated by group-based trajectory modeling. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between the trajectory group and outcomes. Subgroup analyses examined the effects of extracorporeal CPR in different trajectories. RESULTS: The study comprised 2118 patients. The median patient age was 69.1 years, and 1376 (65.0%) patients were male. Three distinct trajectories were identified: high-shockability (52 patients; 2.5%), intermediate-shockability (262 patients; 12.4%), and low-shockability (1804 patients; 85.2%) trajectories. The median proportion of shockable rhythms over the course of CPR for the 3 trajectories was 81.7% (interquartile range, 73.2%-100.0%), 26.7% (interquartile range, 16.7%-37.5%), and 0% (interquartile range, 0%-0%), respectively. The multivariable analysis indicated both intermediate- and high-shockability trajectories were associated with favorable neurological recovery (intermediate-shockability: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.98 [95% CI, 2.34-10.59]; high-shockability: aOR, 5.40 [95% CI, 2.03-14.32]) and survival (intermediate-shockability: aOR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.44-4.18]; high-shockability: aOR, 2.76 [95% CI, 1.20-6.38]). The subgroup analysis further indicated extracorporeal CPR was significantly associated with favorable neurological outcomes (aOR, 4.06 [95% CI, 1.11-14.81]) only in the intermediate-shockability trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Heart rhythm shockability trajectories were associated with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes, which may be a supplementary factor in guiding the allocation of medical resources, such as extracorporeal CPR.

End-tidal Carbon Dioxide Trajectory-based Prognostication of Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest.

Background: During cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) is primarily determined by pulmonary blood flow, thereby reflecting the blood flow generated by CPR. We aimed to develop an EtCO2 trajectory-based prediction model for prognostication at specific time points during CPR in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Methods: We screened patients receiving CPR between 2015-2021 from a prospectively collected database of a tertiary-care medical center. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify the EtCO2 trajectories. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for model development and internally validated using bootstrapping. We assessed performance of the model using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The primary analysis included 542 patients with a median age of 68.0 years. Three distinct EtCO2 trajectories were identified in patients resuscitated for 20 minutes (min): low (average EtCO2 10.0 millimeters of mercury [mm Hg]; intermediate (average EtCO2 26.5 mm Hg); and high (average EtCO2: 51.5 mm Hg). Twenty-min EtCO2 trajectory was fitted as an ordinal variable (low, intermediate, and high) and positively associated with survival (odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-4.74). When the 20-min EtCO2 trajectory was combined with other variables, including arrest location and arrest rhythms, the AUC of the 20-min prediction model for survival was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92). All predictors in the 20-min model remained statistically significant after bootstrapping. Conclusion: Time-specific EtCO2 trajectory was a significant predictor of OHCA outcomes, which could be combined with other baseline variables for intra-arrest prognostication. For this purpose, the 20-min survival model achieved excellent discriminative performance in predicting survival to hospital discharge.

Development and External Validation of Clinical Features-based Machine Learning Models for Predicting COVID-19 in the Emergency Department.

Introduction: Timely diagnosis of patients affected by an emerging infectious disease plays a crucial role in treating patients and avoiding disease spread. In prior research, we developed an approach by using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict serious acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on clinical features of patients visiting an emergency department (ED) during the early coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, we aimed to externally validate this approach within a distinct ED population. Methods: To create our training/validation cohort (model development) we collected data retrospectively from suspected COVID-19 patients at a US ED from February 23-May 12, 2020. Another dataset was collected as an external validation (testing) cohort from an ED in another country from May 12-June 15, 2021. Clinical features including patient demographics and triage information were used to train and test the models. The primary outcome was the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, defined as a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2. We employed three different ML algorithms, including gradient boosting, random forest, and extra trees classifiers, to construct the predictive model. The predictive performances were evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the testing cohort. Results: In total, 580 and 946 ED patients were included in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Of them, 98 (16.9%) and 180 (19.0%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. All the constructed ML models showed acceptable discrimination, as indicated by the AUC. Among them, random forest (0.785, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.747-0.822) performed better than gradient boosting (0.774, 95% CI 0.739-0.811) and extra trees classifier (0.72, 95% CI 0.677-0.762). There was no significant difference between the constructed models. Conclusion: Our study validates the use of ML for predicting COVID-19 in the ED and demonstrates its potential for predicting emerging infectious diseases based on models built by clinical features with temporal and spatial heterogeneity. This approach holds promise for scenarios where effective diagnostic tools for an emerging infectious disease may be lacking in the future.

Social network analysis of nationwide interhospital emergency department transfers in Taiwan.

Transferring patients between emergency departments (EDs) is a complex but important issue in emergency care regionalization. Social network analysis (SNA) is well-suited to characterize the ED transfer pattern. We aimed to unravel the underlying transfer network structure and to identify key network metrics for monitoring network functions. This was a retrospective cohort study using the National Electronic Referral System (NERS) database in Taiwan. All interhospital ED transfers from 2014 to 2016 were included and transfer characteristics were retrieved. Descriptive statistics and social network analysis were used to analyze the data. There were a total of 218,760 ED transfers during the 3-year study period. In the network analysis, there were a total of 199 EDs with 9516 transfer ties between EDs. The network demonstrated a multiple hub-and-spoke, regionalized pattern, with low global density (0.24), moderate centralization (0.57), and moderately high clustering of EDs (0.63). At the ED level, most transfers were one-way, with low reciprocity (0.21). Sending hospitals had a median of 5 transfer-out partners [interquartile range (IQR) 3-7), while receiving hospitals a median of 2 (IQR 1-6) transfer-in partners. A total of 16 receiving hospitals, all of which were designated base or co-base hospitals, had 15 or more transfer-in partners. Social network analysis of transfer patterns between hospitals confirmed that the network structure largely aligned with the planned regionalized transfer network in Taiwan. Understanding the network metrics helps track the structure and process aspects of regionalized care.

Prospective study of pain and patient outcomes in the emergency department: a tale of two pain assessment methods.

BACKGROUND: Accurate pain assessment is essential in the emergency department (ED) triage process. Overestimation of pain intensity, however, can lead to unnecessary overtriage. The study aimed to investigate the influence of pain on patient outcomes and how pain intensity modulates the triage's predictive capabilities on these outcomes. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital, enrolling adult patients in the triage station. The entire triage process was captured on video. Two pain assessment methods were employed: (1) Self-reported pain score in the Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale, referred to as the system-based method; (2) Five physicians independently assigned triage levels and assessed pain scores from video footage, termed the physician-based method. The primary outcome was hospitalization, and secondary outcomes included ED length of stay (EDLOS) and ED charges. RESULTS: Of the 656 patients evaluated, the median self-reported pain score was 4 (interquartile range, 0-7), while the median physician-rated pain score was 1.5 (interquartile range, 0-3). Increased self-reported pain severity was not associated with prolonged EDLOS and increased ED charges, but a positive association was identified with physician-rated pain scores. Using the system-based method, the predictive efficacy of triage scales was lower in the pain groups than in the pain-free group (area under the receiver operating curve, [AUROC]: 0.615 vs. 0.637). However, with the physician-based method, triage scales were more effective in predicting hospitalization among patients with pain than those without (AUROC: 0.650 vs. 0.636). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported pain seemed to diminish the predictive accuracy of triage for hospitalization. In contrast, physician-rated pain scores were positively associated with longer EDLOS, increased ED charges, and enhanced triage predictive capability for hospitalization. Pain, therefore, appears to modulate the relationship between triage and patient outcomes, highlighting the need for careful pain evaluation in the ED.

Pulmonary embolism in United States emergency departments, 2010-2018.

Little is known about pulmonary embolism (PE) in the United States emergency department (ED). This study aimed to describe the disease burden (visit rate and hospitalization) of PE in the ED and to investigate factors associated with its burden. Data were obtained from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) from 2010 to 2018. Adult ED visits with PE were identified using the International Classification of Diseases codes. Analyses used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression accounting for the NHAMCS's complex survey design. Over the 9-year study period, there were an estimated 1,500,000 ED visits for PE, and the proportion of PE visits in the entire ED population increased from 0.1% in 2010-2012 to 0.2% in 2017-2018 (P for trend = 0.002). The mean age was 57 years, and 40% were men. Older age, obesity, history of cancer, and history of venous thromboembolism were independently associated with a higher proportion of PE, whereas the Midwest region was associated with a lower proportion of PE. The utilization of chest computed tomography (CT) scan appeared stable, which was performed in approximately 43% of the visits. About 66% of PE visits were hospitalized, and the trend remained stable. Male sex, arrival during the morning shift, and higher triage levels were independently associated with a higher hospitalization rate, whereas the fall and winter months were independently associated with a lower hospitalization rate. Approximately 8.8% of PE patients were discharged with direct-acting oral anticoagulants. The ED visits for PE continued to increase despite the stable trend in CT use, suggesting a combination of prevalent and incident PE cases in the ED. Hospitalization for PE remains common practice. Some patients are disproportionately affected by PE, and certain patient and hospital factors are associated with hospitalization decisions.

End-tidal Carbon Dioxide + Return of Spontaneous Circulation After Cardiac Arrest (RACA) Score to Predict Outcomes After Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest.

INTRODUCTION: The return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest (RACA) score is a well-validated model for estimating the probability of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) by incorporating several variables, including gender, age, arrest aetiology, witness status, arrest location, initial cardiac rhythms, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and emergency medical services (EMS) arrival time. The RACA score was initially designed for comparisons between different EMS systems by standardising ROSC rates. End-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) is a quality indicator of CPR. We aimed to improve the performance of the RACA score by adding minimum EtCO2 measured during CPR to develop the EtCO2 + RACA score for OHCA patients transported to an emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis using prospectively collected data for OHCA patients resuscitated at an ED during 2015-2020. Adult patients with advanced airways inserted and available EtCO2 measurements were included. We used the EtCO2 values recorded in the ED for analysis. The primary outcome was ROSC. In the derivation cohort, we used multivariable logistic regression to develop the model. In the temporally split validation cohort, we assessed the discriminative performance of the EtCO2 + RACA score by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared it with the RACA score using the DeLong test. RESULTS: There were 530 and 228 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The median measurements of EtCO2 were 8.0 times (interquartile range [IQR] 3.0-12.0 times), with the median minimum EtCO2 of 15.5 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg) (IQR 8.0-26.0 mm Hg). The median RACA score was 36.4% (IQR 28.9-48.0%), and a total of 393 patients (51.8%) achieved ROSC. The EtCO2 + RACA score was validated with good discriminative performance (AUC, 0.82, 95% CI 0.77-0.88), outperforming the RACA score (AUC, 0.71, 95% CI 0.65-0.78) (DeLong test: P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The EtCO2 + RACA score may facilitate the decision-making process regarding allocations of medical resources in EDs for OHCA resuscitation.

Applying a Smartwatch to Predict Work-related Fatigue for Emergency Healthcare Professionals: Machine Learning Method.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare professionals frequently experience work-related fatigue, which may jeopardize their health and put patient safety at risk. In this study, we applied a machine learning (ML) approach based on data collected from a smartwatch to construct prediction models of work-related fatigue for emergency clinicians. METHODS: We conducted this prospective study at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary teaching hospital from March 10-June 20, 2021, where we recruited physicians, nurses, and nurse practitioners. All participants wore a commercially available smartwatch capable of measuring various physiological data during the experiment. Participants completed the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory (MFI) web form before and after each of their work shifts. We calculated and labeled the before-and-after-shift score differences between each pair of scores. Using several tree-based algorithms, we constructed the prediction models based on features collected from the smartwatch. Records were split into training/validation and testing sets at a 70:30 ratio, and we evaluated the performances using the area under the curve (AUC) measure of receiver operating characteristic on the test set. RESULTS: In total, 110 participants were included in this study, contributing to a set of 1,542 effective records. Of these records, 85 (5.5%) were labeled as having work-related fatigue when setting the MFI difference between two standard deviations as the threshold. The mean age of the participants was 29.6. Most of the records were collected from nurses (87.7%) and females (77.5%). We selected a union of 31 features to construct the models. For total participants, CatBoost classifier achieved the best performances of AUC (0.838, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.742-0.918) to identify work-related fatigue. By focusing on a subgroup of nurses <35 years in age, XGBoost classifier obtained excellent performance of AUC (0.928, 95% CI 0.839-0.991) on the test set. CONCLUSION: By using features derived from a smartwatch, we successfully built ML models capable of classifying the risk of work-related fatigue in the ED. By collecting more data to optimize the models, it should be possible to use smartwatch-based ML models in the future to predict work-related fatigue and adopt preventive measures for emergency clinicians.

Machine learning to predict in-hospital cardiac arrest from patients presenting to the emergency department.

In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in the emergency department (ED) is not uncommon but often fatal. Using the machine learning (ML) approach, we sought to predict ED-based IHCA (EDCA) in patients presenting to the ED based on triage data. We retrieved 733,398 ED records from a tertiary teaching hospital over a 7 year period (Jan. 1, 2009-Dec. 31, 2015). We included only adult patients (≥ 18 y) and excluded cases presenting as out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Primary outcome (EDCA) was identified via a resuscitation code. Patient demographics, triage data, and structured chief complaints (CCs), were extracted. Stratified split was used to divide the dataset into the training and testing cohort at a 3-to-1 ratio. Three supervised ML models were trained and performances were evaluated and compared to the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and logistic regression (LR) model by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We included 316,465 adult ED records for analysis. Of them, 636 (0.2%) developed EDCA. Of the constructed ML models, Random Forest outperformed the others with the best AUC result (0.931, 95% CI 0.911-0.949), followed by Gradient Boosting (0.930, 95% CI 0.909-0.948) and Extra Trees classifier (0.915, 95% CI 0.892-0.936). Although the differences between each of ML models and LR (AUC: 0.905, 95% CI 0.882-0.926) were not significant, all constructed ML models performed significantly better than using the NEWS2 scoring system (AUC 0.678, 95% CI 0.635-0.722). Our ML models showed excellent discriminatory performance to identify EDCA based only on the triage information. This ML approach has the potential to reduce unexpected resuscitation events if successfully implemented in the ED information system.

Unveiling the future of COVID-19 patient care: groundbreaking prediction models for severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized cases.

Background: Previous studies have identified COVID-19 risk factors, such as age and chronic health conditions, linked to severe outcomes and mortality. However, accurately predicting severe illness in COVID-19 patients remains challenging, lacking precise methods. Objective: This study aimed to leverage clinical real-world data and multiple machine-learning algorithms to formulate innovative predictive models for assessing the risk of severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: Data were obtained from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD) including electronic health records from three Taiwanese hospitals in Taiwan. This study included patients admitted to the hospitals who received an initial diagnosis of COVID-19 between January 1, 2021, and May 31, 2022. The primary outcome was defined as the composite of severe infection, including ventilator use, intubation, ICU admission, and mortality. Secondary outcomes consisted of individual indicators. The dataset encompassed demographic data, health status, COVID-19 specifics, comorbidities, medications, and laboratory results. Two modes (full mode and simplified mode) are used; the former includes all features, and the latter only includes the 30 most important features selected based on the algorithm used by the best model in full mode. Seven machine learning was employed algorithms the performance of the models was evaluated using metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The study encompassed 22,192 eligible in-patients diagnosed with COVID-19. In the full mode, the model using the light gradient boosting machine algorithm achieved the highest AUROC value (0.939), with an accuracy of 85.5%, a sensitivity of 0.897, and a specificity of 0.853. Age, vaccination status, neutrophil count, sodium levels, and platelet count were significant features. In the simplified mode, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm yielded an AUROC of 0.935, an accuracy of 89.9%, a sensitivity of 0.843, and a specificity of 0.902. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of constructing precise predictive models for severe outcomes or mortality in COVID-19 patients by leveraging significant predictors and advanced machine learning. These findings can aid healthcare practitioners in proactively predicting and monitoring severe outcomes or mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, improving treatment and resource allocation.

Development and Validation of a Novel Triage Tool for Predicting Cardiac Arrest in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition and prevention of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) have played an increasingly important role in the chain of survival. However, clinical tools for predicting IHCA are scarce, particularly in the emergency department (ED). We sought to estimate the incidence of ED-based IHCA and to develop and validate a novel triage tool, the Emergency Department In-hospital Cardiac Arrest Score (EDICAS), for predicting ED-based IHCA. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center with approximately 100,000 ED visits per year. We extracted data from 733,398 ED visits over a seven-year period. We selected one ED visit per person and excluded out-of-hospital cardiac arrest or children. Patient demographics and computerized triage information were included as potential predictors. RESULTS: A total of 325,502 adult ED patients were included. Of these patients, 623 (0.2%) developed ED-based IHCA. The EDICAS, which includes age and arrival mode and categorizes vital signs with simple cut-offs, showed excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] curve, 0.87) and maintained its discriminatory ability (AUROC, 0.86) in cross-validation. Previously developed early warning scores showed lower AUROC (0.77 for the Modified Early Warning Score and 0.83 for the National Early Warning Score) when applied to our ED population. CONCLUSION: In-hospital cardiac arrest in the ED is relatively uncommon. We developed and internally validated a novel tool for predicting imminent IHCA in the ED. Future studies are warranted to determine whether this tool could gain lead time to identify high-risk patients and potentially reduce ED-based IHCA.

External validation of a triage tool for predicting cardiac arrest in the emergency department.

Early recognition and prevention comprise the first ring of the Chain of Survival for in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). We previously developed and internally validated an emergency department (ED) triage tool, Emergency Department In-hospital Cardiac Arrest Score (EDICAS), for predicting ED-based IHCA. We aimed to externally validate this novel tool in another ED population. This retrospective cohort study used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center with approximately 130,000 ED visits per year. We retrieved data from 268,208 ED visits over a 2-year period. We selected one ED visit per person and excluded out-of-hospital cardiac arrest or children. Patient demographics and computerized triage information were retrieved, and the EDICAS was calculated to predict the ED-based IHCA. A total of 145,557 adult ED patients were included. Of them, 240 (0.16%) developed IHCA. The EDICAS showed excellent discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.88. The AUROC of the EDICAS outperformed those of other early warning scores (0.80 for Modified Early Warning Score [MEWS] and 0.83 for Rapid Emergency Medicine Score [REMS]) in the same ED population. An EDICAS of 6 or above (i.e., high-risk patients) corresponded to a sensitivity of 33%, a specificity of 97%, and a positive likelihood ratio of 12.2. In conclusion, we externally validated a tool for predicting imminent IHCA in the ED and demonstrated its superior performance over other early warning scores. The real-world impact of the EDICAS warning system with appropriate interventions would require a future prospective study.

In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in United States Emergency Departments, 2010-2018.

Background: Little is known about the in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in the US emergency department (ED). This study aimed to describe the incidence and mortality of ED-based IHCA visits and to investigate the factors associated with higher incidence and poor outcomes of IHCA. Materials and Methods: Data were obtained from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) between 2010 and 2018. Adult ED visits with IHCA were identified using the cardiopulmonary resuscitation code, excluding those with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. We used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression accounting for NHAMCS's complex survey design. The primary outcome measures were ED-based IHCA incidence rates and ED-based IHCA mortality. Results: Over the 9-year study period, there were approximately 1,114,000 ED visits with IHCA. The proportion of IHCA visits in the entire ED population (incidence rate, 1.2 per 1,000 ED visits) appeared stable. The mean age of patients who visited the ED with IHCA was 60 years, and 65% were men. Older age, male, arrival by ambulance, and being uninsured independently predicted a higher incidence of ED-based IHCA. Approximately 51% of IHCA died in the ED, and the trend remained stable. Arrival by ambulance, nighttime, or weekend arrival, and being in the non-Northeast were independently associated with a higher mortality rate after IHCA. Conclusion: The high burden of ED visits with IHCA persisted through 2010-2018. Additionally, ED-based IHCA survival to hospital admission remained poor. Some patients were disproportionately affected, and certain contextual factors were associated with a poorer outcome.