An online international comparison of palliative care identification in primary care using the Surprise Question.

BACKGROUND: The Surprise Question ('Would I be surprised if this patient died within 12 months?') identifies patients in the last year of life. It is unclear if 'surprised' means the same for each clinician, and whether their responses are internally consistent. AIM: To determine the consistency with which the Surprise Question is used. DESIGN: A cross-sectional online study of participants located in Belgium, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Switzerland and UK. Participants completed 20 hypothetical patient summaries ('vignettes'). Primary outcome measure: continuous estimate of probability of death within 12 months (0% [certain survival]-100% [certain death]). A threshold (probability estimate above which Surprise Question responses were consistently 'no') and an inconsistency range (range of probability estimates where respondents vacillated between responses) were calculated. Univariable and multivariable linear regression explored differences in consistency. Trial registration: NCT03697213. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Registered General Practitioners (GPs). Of the 307 GPs who started the study, 250 completed 15 or more vignettes. RESULTS: Participants had a consistency threshold of 49.8% (SD 22.7) and inconsistency range of 17% (SD 22.4). Italy had a significantly higher threshold than other countries (p = 0.002). There was also a difference in threshold levels depending on age of clinician, for every yearly increase, participants had a higher threshold. There was no difference in inconsistency between countries (p = 0.53). CONCLUSIONS: There is variation between clinicians regarding the use of the Surprise Question. Over half of GPs were not internally consistent in their responses to the Surprise Question. Future research with standardised terms and real patients is warranted.

Validation of the German version of the needs assessment tool: progressive disease-heart failure.

BACKGROUND: The Needs Assessment Tool: Progressive Disease-Heart Failure (NAT: PD-HF) is a tool created to assess the needs of people living with heart failure and their informal caregivers to assist delivering care in a more comprehensive way that addresses actual needs that are unmet, and to improve quality of life. In this study, we aimed to (1) Translate the tool into German and culturally adapt it. (2) Assess internal consistency, inter-rater reliability, and test-retest reliability of the German NAT: PD-HF. (3) Evaluate whether and how patients and health care personnel understand the tool and its utility. (4) Assess the tool's face validity, applicability, relevance, and acceptability among health care personnel. METHODS: Single-center validation study. The tool was translated from English into German using a forward-backward translation. To assess internal consistency, we used Cronbach´s alpha. To assess inter-rater reliability and test-retest reliability, we used Cohen´s kappa, and to assess validity we used face validity. RESULTS: The translated tool showed good internal consistency. Raters were in substantial agreement on a majority of the questions, and agreement was almost perfect for all the questions in the test-retest analysis. Face validity was rated high by health care personnel. CONCLUSION: The German NAT: PD-HF is a reliable, valid, and internally consistent tool that is well accepted by both patients and health care personnel. However, it is important to keep in mind that effective use of the tool requires training of health care personnel.

Single early palliative care intervention added to usual oncology care for patients with advanced cancer: A randomized controlled trial (SENS Trial).

BACKGROUND: International oncology societies recommend early palliative care. Specific models to integrate early palliative care efficiently into clinical practice are debated. The authors designed a study to look at the quantitative and qualitative outcomes of an early palliative care intervention in oncological care to decrease stress and improve quality of life. AIMS: To compare a single structured early palliative care intervention added to a usual oncology care in terms of distress and health-related quality of life at baseline compared to 6 months after enrollment. DESIGN: This multicenter randomized controlled trial (NCT01983956) enrolled adult patients with advanced cancer. Participants were either randomly assigned to usual oncology care alone or usual care plus a structured early palliative care intervention. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: One hundred fifty adult patients with a variety of advanced cancer diagnoses were randomized. Seventy-four participants were in the intervention and 76 participants in the control group. The primary outcome was the change in patient distress assessed by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network distress thermometer at 6 months. Health-related quality of life, the secondary outcome, was assessed by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General Questionnaire. RESULTS: The results showed no significant effect of the early palliative care intervention neither on patient distress nor on health-related quality of life. CONCLUSION: The addition of an early intervention to usual care for patients with advanced cancer did not improve distress or quality of life. Thus, patients may need more intensive early palliative care with continuous professional support to identify and address their palliative needs early.

Impact of home-based palliative care on health care costs and hospital use: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of home-based palliative care (HBPC) on reducing hospital visits and whether HBPC lowered health care cost. METHOD: We searched six bibliographic databases (Embase (Ovid); Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; Medline (Ovid); PubMed; Web of Science Core Collection; and, CINAHL) until February 2019 and performed a narrative synthesis of our findings. RESULTS: Of the 1,426 identified references, 21 articles based on 19 unique studies met our inclusion criteria, which involved 92,000 participants. In both oncological and non-oncological patients, HBPC consistently reduced the number of hospital visits and their length, as well as hospitalization costs and overall health care costs. Even though home-treated patients consumed more outpatient resources, a higher saving in the hospital costs counterbalanced this. The reduction in overall health care costs was most noticeable for study periods closer to death, with greater reductions in the last 2 months, last month, and last two weeks of life. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Stakeholders should recognize HBPC as an intervention that decreases patient care costs at end of life and therefore health care providers should assess the preferences of patients nearing the end-of-life to identify those who will benefit most from HBPC.

Unmet device reprogramming needs at the end of life among patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators is increasingly common. As patients approach the end of life, it is appropriate to deactivate the shock function. AIM: To assess the prevalence of implantable cardioverter defibrillator reprogramming to deactivate the shock function at the end of life and the prevalence of advance directives among this population. DESIGN: Following a previously established protocol available in PROSPERO, we performed a narrative synthesis of our findings and used the logit transformation method to perform our quantitative synthesis. DATA SOURCES: We searched seven bibliographic databases (Embase, Cochrane Central register of controlled Trials, Medline-Ovid, Web-of-Science, Scopus, PsychInfo, and CINAHL) and additional sources until April 2019. RESULTS: Of the references we identified, 14 were included. We found a pooled prevalence of implantable cardioverter defibrillator reprogramming at the end of life of 28% (95% confidence interval, 22%-36%) with higher reprogramming rates after the recommendations for managing the device at the end of life were published. Among patients with advance directives, the pooled prevalence of advance directives that explicitly mentioned the device was 1% (95% confidence interval, 1%-3%). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of implantable cardioverter defibrillator reprogramming and advance directives that explicitly mentioned the device was very low. Study data suggested reprogramming decisions were made very late, after the patient experienced multiple shocks. Patient suffering could be ameliorated if physicians and other healthcare professionals adhere to clinical guidelines for the good management of the device at the end of life and include deactivating the shock function in the discussion that leads to the advance directive.

Correction to: An online international comparison of thresholds for triggering a negative response to the "Surprise Question": a study protocol.

Following publication of the original article [1], an error in reference 18 was reported.

An online international comparison of thresholds for triggering a negative response to the "Surprise Question": a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The Surprise Question (SQ) "would I be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months?" has been suggested to help clinicians, and especially General Practitioners (GPs), identify people who might benefit from palliative care. The prognostic accuracy of this approach is unclear and little is known about how GPs use this tool in practice. Are GPs consistent, individually and as a group? Are there international differences in the use of the tool? Does including the alternative Surprise Question ("Would I be surprised if the patient were still alive after 12 months?") alter the response? What is the impact on the treatment plan in response to the SQ? This study aims to address these questions. METHODS: An online study will be completed by 600 (100 per country) registered GPs. They will be asked to review 20 hypothetical patient vignettes. For each vignette they will be asked to provide a response to the following four questions: (1) the SQ [Yes/No]; (2) the alternative SQ [Yes/No]; (3) the percentage probability of dying [0% no chance - 100% certain death]; and (4) the proposed treatment plan [multiple choice]. A "surprise threshold" for each participant will be calculated by comparing the responses to the SQ with the probability estimates of death. We will use linear regression to explore any differences in thresholds between countries and other clinician-related factors, such as years of experience. We will describe the actions taken by the clinicians and explore the differences between groups. We will also investigate the relationship between the alternative SQ and the other responses. Participants will receive a certificate of completion and the option to receive feedback on their performance. DISCUSSION: This study explores the extent to which the SQ is consistently used at an individual, group, and national level. The findings of this study will help to understand the clinical value of using the SQ in routine practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03697213 (05/10/2018). Prospectively registered.

Death at no cost? Persons with no health insurance claims in the last year of life in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Lack of health insurance claims (HIC) in the last year of life might indicate suboptimal end-of-life care, but reasons for no HIC are not fully understood because information on causes of death is often missing. We investigated association of no HIC with characteristics of individuals and their place of residence. METHODS: We analysed HIC of persons who died between 2008 and 2010, which were obtained from six providers of mandatory Swiss health insurance. We probabilistically linked these persons to death certificates to get cause of death information and analysed data using sex-stratified, multivariable logistic regression. Supplementary analyses looked at selected subgroups of persons according to the primary cause of death. RESULTS: The study population included 113,277 persons (46% males). Among these persons, 1199 (proportion 0.022, 95% CI: 0.021-0.024) males and 803 (0.013, 95% CI: 0.012-0.014) females had no HIC during the last year of life. We found sociodemographic and health differentials in the lack of HIC at the last year of life among these 2002 persons. The likelihood of having no HIC decreased steeply with older age. Those who died of cancer were more likely to have HIC (adjusted odds ratio for males 0.17, 95% CI: 0.13-0.22; females 0.19, 95% CI: 0.12-0.28) whereas those dying of mental and behavioural disorders (AOR males 1.83, 95% CI:1.42-2.37; females 1.65, 95% CI: 1.27-2.14), and males dying of suicide (AOR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.72-2.69) and accidents (AOR 2.41, 95% CI: 1.96-2.97) were more likely to have none. Single, widowed, and divorced persons also were more likely to have no HIC (AORs in range of 1.29-1.80). There was little or no association between the lack of HIC and characteristics of region of residence. Patterns of no HIC differed across main causes of death. Associations with age and civil status differed in particular for persons who died of cancer, suicide, accidents and assaults, and mental and behavioural disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Particular groups might be more likely to not seek care or not report health insurance costs to insurers. Researchers should be aware of this aspect of health insurance data and account for persons who lack HIC.

Regional Variation of Cost of Care in the Last 12 Months of Life in Switzerland: Small-area Analysis Using Insurance Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: Health care spending increases sharply at the end of life. Little is known about variation of cost of end of life care between regions and the drivers of such variation. We studied small-area patterns of cost of care in the last year of life in Switzerland. METHODS: We used mandatory health insurance claims data of individuals who died between 2008 and 2010 to derive cost of care. We used multilevel regression models to estimate differences in costs across 564 regions of place of residence, nested within 71 hospital service areas. We examined to what extent variation was explained by characteristics of individuals and regions, including measures of health care supply. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 113,277 individuals. The mean cost of care during last year of life was 32.5k (thousand) Swiss Francs per person (SD=33.2k). Cost differed substantially between regions after adjustment for patient age, sex, and cause of death. Variance was reduced by 52%-95% when we added individual and regional characteristics, with a strong effect of language region. Measures of supply of care did not show associations with costs. Remaining between and within hospital service area variations were most pronounced for older females and least for younger individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, small-area analysis revealed variation of cost of care during the last year of life according to linguistic regions and unexplained regional differences for older women. Cultural factors contribute to the delivery and utilization of health care during the last months of life and should be considered by policy makers.

Dying among older adults in Switzerland: who dies in hospital, who dies in a nursing home?

BACKGROUND: Institutional deaths (hospitals and nursing homes) are an important issue because they are often at odds with patient preference and associated with high healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to examine deaths in institutions and the role of individual, regional, and healthcare supply characteristics in explaining variation across Swiss Hospital Service Areas (HSAs). METHODS: Retrospective study of individuals ≥66 years old who died in a Swiss institution (hospital or nursing homes) in 2010. Using a two-level logistic regression analysis we examined the amount of variation across HSAs adjusting for individual, regional and healthcare supply measures. The outcome was place of death, defined as death in hospital or nursing homes. RESULTS: In 2010, 41,275 individuals ≥66 years old died in a Swiss institution; 54 % in nursing homes and 46 % in hospitals. The probability of dying in hospital decreased with increasing age. The OR was 0.07 (95 % CI: 0.05-0.07) for age 91+ years compared to those 66-70 years. Living in peri-urban areas (OR = 1.06 95 % CI: 1.00-1.11) and French speaking region (OR = 1.43 95 % CI: 1.22-1.65) was associated with higher probability of hospital death. Females had lower probability of death in hospital (OR = 0.54 95 % CI: 0.51-0.56). The density of ambulatory care physicians (OR = 0.81 95 % CI: 0.67-0.97) and nursing homes beds (OR = 0.67 95 % CI: 0.56-0.79) was negatively associated with hospital death. The proportion of dying in hospital varied from 38 % in HSAs with lowest proportion of hospital deaths to 60 % in HSAs with highest proportion of hospital deaths (1.6-fold variation). CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence for variation across regions in Switzerland in dying in hospital versus nursing homes, indicating possible overuse and underuse of end of life (EOL) services.

Avoidable hospitalizations in Switzerland: a small area analysis on regional variation, density of physicians, hospital supply and rurality.

BACKGROUND: Avoidable hospitalizations (AH) are hospital admissions for diseases and conditions that could have been prevented by appropriate ambulatory care. We examine regional variation of AH in Switzerland and the factors that determine AH. METHODS: We used hospital service areas, and data from 2008-2010 hospital discharges in Switzerland to examine regional variation in AH. Age and sex standardized AH were the outcome variable, and year of admission, primary care physician density, medical specialist density, rurality, hospital bed density and type of hospital reimbursement system were explanatory variables in our multilevel poisson regression. RESULTS: Regional differences in AH were as high as 12-fold. Poisson regression showed significant increase of all AH over time. There was a significantly lower rate of all AH in areas with more primary care physicians. Rates increased in areas with more specialists. Rates of all AH also increased where the proportion of residences in rural communities increased. Regional hospital capacity and type of hospital reimbursement did not have significant associations. Inconsistent patterns of significant determinants were found for disease specific analyses. CONCLUSION: The identification of regions with high and low AH rates is a starting point for future studies on unwarranted medical procedures, and may help to reduce their incidence. AH have complex multifactorial origins and this study demonstrates that rurality and physician density are relevant determinants. The results are helpful to improve the performance of the outpatient sector with emphasis on local context. Rural and urban differences in health care delivery remain a cause of concern in Switzerland.

Perceptions and needs of an outpatient palliative care team regarding digital care conferences in palliative care: a mixed-method online survey.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine in palliative care (PC) is increasingly being used, especially in outpatient settings with large geographic distances. Its proven benefits include improved communication, coordination quality and time savings. However, the effect on symptom control is less evident. Whether these benefits apply to the Swiss setting and the needs of healthcare professionals (HCPs) is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To identify the perceptions and needs of healthcare professionals (nurses and physicians) regarding telemedicine (generally and specifically for care conferences) in a Swiss outpatient palliative care network. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, mixed-method online survey with purposefully sampled healthcare professionals from an outpatient palliative care team as baseline data during the planning phase of a quality improvement project (digital care conferences). FINDINGS/RESULTS: Of the 251 HCPs approached, 66 responded, including nurses (n = 37) and physicians (n = 29), with an overall response rate of 26.6%. These were distributed into two groups: general palliative care HCPs (n = 48, return rate 21.3%) and specialised palliative care HCPs (n = 18, return rate 69.2%). Generally, telemedicine was perceived as useful. Potential easy access to other HCPs and hence improved communication and coordination were perceived as advantages. Barriers included a lack of acceptance and physical contact, unsolved questions about potential data breaches and technical obstacles. Regarding digital care conferences, the perceived acceptance and feasibility were good; preferred participants were the specialised palliative care HCPs (nurses and physicians), primary physicians and home care nurses, as well as the leadership of a nurse. The needs of the HCPs were as follows: (a) clear and efficient planning, (b) usability and security and (c) visual contact with the patient. CONCLUSION: Digital care conferences are perceived as a feasible and useful tool by healthcare professionals in a local palliative care network in Switzerland. A pilot phase will be the next step towards systematic integration of this telemedicine modality into outpatient palliative care.

An economic evaluation of an early palliative care intervention among patients with advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early integration of palliative care into oncology care has shown positive effects on patient symptoms and quality of life. It may also reduce health care costs. However given the heterogeneity of settings and interventions and the lack of information on the minimally effective dose for influencing care utilisation and costs, it remains uncertain whether early palliative care reduces costs. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether an early palliative care intervention integrated in usual oncology care in a Swiss hospital setting reduced utilisation and costs of health care in the last month of life when compared with usual oncology care alone. METHODS: We performed a cost-consequences analysis alongside a multicentre trial. We extracted costs from administrative health insurance data and health care utilisation from family caregiver surveys to compare two study arms: usual oncology care and usual oncology care plus the palliative care intervention. The intervention consisted of a single-structured, multiprofessional conversation with the patient about symptoms, end-of-life decisions, network building and support for carers (SENS). The early palliative care intervention was performed within 16 weeks of the diagnosis of a tumour stage not amenable or responsive to curative treatment. RESULTS: We included 58 participants with advanced cancer in our economic evaluation study. Median overall health care costs in the last month of life were 7892 Swiss Francs (CHF) (interquartile range: CHF 5637-13,489) in the intervention arm and CHF 8492 [CHF 5411-12,012] in the control arm. The average total intervention treatment cost CHF 380 per patient. Integrating an early palliative care intervention into usual oncology care showed no significant difference in health care utilisation or overall health care costs between intervention and control arms (p = 0.98). CONCLUSION: Although early palliative care is often presented as a cost-reducing care service, we could not show a significant effect of the SENS intervention on health care utilisation and costs in the last month of life. However, it may be that the intervention was not intensive enough, the timeframe too short or the study population too small for measurable effects. Patients appreciated the intervention. Single-structured early palliative care interventions are easy to implement in clinical practice and present low treatment costs. Further research about the economic impact of early palliative care should focus on extracting large, detailed cost databases showing potential shifts in cost and cost-effectiveness. CLINICAL TRIALS: gov Identifier: NCT01983956.

Euthanasia and assisted suicide in selected European countries and US states: systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Legal in some European countries and US states, physician-assisted suicide and voluntary active euthanasia remain under debate in these and other countries. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to examine numbers, characteristics, and trends over time for assisted dying in regions where these practices are legal: Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Oregon, Washington, and Montana. DESIGN: This was a systematic review of journal articles and official reports. Medline and Embase databases were searched for relevant studies, from inception to end of 2012. We searched the websites of the health authorities of all eligible countries and states for reports on physician-assisted suicide or euthanasia and included publications that reported on cases of physician-assisted suicide or euthanasia. We extracted information on the total number of assisted deaths, its proportion in relation to all deaths, and socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of individuals assisted to die. RESULTS: A total of 1043 publications were identified; 25 articles and reports were retained, including series of reported cases, physician surveys, and reviews of death certificates. The percentage of physician-assisted deaths among all deaths ranged from 0.1%-0.2% in the US states and Luxembourg to 1.8%-2.9% in the Netherlands. Percentages of cases reported to the authorities increased in most countries over time. The typical person who died with assistance was a well-educated male cancer patient, aged 60-85 years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some common characteristics between countries, we found wide variation in the extent and specific characteristics of those who died an assisted death.

Frequency of euthanasia, factors associated with end-of-life practices, and quality of end-of-life care in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the Netherlands: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a progressive and lethal neurodegenerative disease that is at the forefront of debates on regulation of assisted dying. Since 2002, when euthanasia was legally regulated in the Netherlands, the frequency of this end-of-life practice has increased substantially from 1·7% of all deaths in 1990 and 2005 to 4·5% in 2015. We aimed to investigate whether the frequency of euthanasia in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis had similarly increased since 2002, and to assess the factors associated with end-of-life practices and the quality of end-of-life care in patients with this disease. METHODS: Using data from the Netherlands ALS registry, we did a population-based cohort study of clinicians and informal caregivers of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis to assess factors associated with end-of-life decision making and the quality of end-of-life care. We included individuals who were diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis according to the revised El-Escorial criteria, and who died between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2016. We calculated the frequency of euthanasia in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from reports made to euthanasia review committees (ERCs) between 2012 and 2020. Results were compared with clinic-based survey studies conducted in 1994-2005. End-of-life practices were end-of-life decisions by a clinician when hastening of death was considered as the potential, probable, or definite effect comprising euthanasia, physician-assisted suicide, ending of life without explicit request, forgoing life-prolonging treatment, and intensified alleviation of symptoms. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2020, 4130 reports of death from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were made to ERCs, of which 1014 were from euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide (mean frequency 25% [SD 3] per year). Sex and gender data were unavailable from the ERC registry. Of 884 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis who died between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2016, their treating clinician was identified for 731 and a caregiver was identified for 741, of whom 356 (49%) and 450 (61%), respectively, agreed to participate in the population-based survey study. According to clinicians, end-of-life practices were chosen by 280 (79%) of 356 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis who died. The frequency of euthanasia in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in 2014-16 (141 [40%] of 356 deaths in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis) was higher than in 1994-98 (35 [17%] of 203) and 2000-05 (33 [16%] of 209). Median survival of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from diagnosis was 15·9 months (95% CI 12·6-17·6) for those who chose euthanasia and 16·1 months (13·4-19·1) for those who did not choose euthanasia (hazard ratio 1·07, 95% CI 0·85-1·34; p=0·58). According to caregivers, compared with other end-of-life practices, patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis choosing euthanasia commonly reported reasons to hasten death as no chance of improvement (53 [56%] of 94 patients who chose euthanasia vs 28 [39%] of 72 patients who chose other end-of-life practices), loss of dignity (47 [50%] vs 15 [21%]), dependency (34 [36%] vs five [7%]), and fatigue or extreme weakness (41 [44%] vs 14 [20%]). According to caregivers, people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-whether they chose euthanasia or did not-were satisfied with the general quality (83 [93%] of 89 patients who chose euthanasia vs 73 [86%] of 85 patients who did not) and availability (85 [97%] of 88 vs 81 [91%] of 90) of end-of-life care. INTERPRETATION: The proportion of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis who chose euthanasia in the Netherlands has increased since 2002. The choice of euthanasia was not associated with disease or patient characteristics, depression or hopelessness, or the availability or quality of end-of-life care. The choice of euthanasia had no effect on overall survival. Future studies could focus on the effect of discussing end-of-life options on quality of life as part of multidisciplinary care throughout the course of the disease, to reduce feelings of loss of autonomy and dignity in patients living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. FUNDING: Netherlands ALS Foundation.

Megatrends in Healthcare: Review for the Swiss National Science Foundation's National Research Programme 74 (NRP74) "Smarter Health Care".

Objectives: In this paper, we present a review of some relevant megatrends in healthcare conducted as part of the Swiss National Science Foundation's National Research Programme 74 (NRP74) "Smarter Health Care." Our aim is to stimulate discussions about long-term tendencies underlying the current and future development of the healthcare system. Methods: Our team-a multidisciplinary panel of researchers involved in the NRP74-went through an iterative process of internal consultations followed by a rapid literature review with the goal of reaching group consensus concerning the most relevant megatrends in healthcare. Results: Five megatrends were identified, namely: 1) Socio-demographic shifts. 2) Broadening meaning of "health." 3) Empowered patients and service users. 4) Digitalization in healthcare. 5) Emergence of new models of care. The main features of each megatrend are presented, drawing often on the situation in Switzerland as a paradigmatic example and adding reflections on the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. Conclusion: Considering the long-term megatrends affecting the evolution of healthcare is important-amongst other things-to understand and contextualise the relevance and implications of innovative health services research results.

Unmet Needs in Patients With Heart Failure: The Importance of Palliative Care in a Heart Failure Clinic.

Background: There are increasing calls to establish heart failure (HF) clinics due to their effectiveness in the interdisciplinary management of people living with HF. However, although a recommendation exists for palliative care (PC) providers to be part of the interdisciplinary team, few of the established HF clinics include them in their teams. Therefore, in this qualitative study, we aimed to understand the unmet PC needs of patients with HF attending an already established HF clinic. Methods: Secondary qualitative analysis of structured interviews undertaken within a larger study to validate the German version of the Needs Assessment Tool: Progressive Disease-Heart Failure (NAT: PD-HF). The NAT: PD-HF is a tool that aims to assess unmet needs in patients with HF. The interviews took place between January and March 2020 with patients from the ambulatory HF Clinic of a University Hospital in Switzerland. For this analysis, we transcribed and thematically analyzed the longest and most content-rich interviews until we reached data saturation at 31 participants. The interviews lasted 31 min on average (24-48 min). Results: Participants (n = 31) had a median age of 64 years (IQR 56-77), the majority had reduced ejection fraction, were men, and were classified as having a New York Heart Association functional class II. Participants were in general satisfied with the treatment and information received at the HF clinic. However, they reported several unmet needs. We therefore identified three ambivalences as main themes: (I) "feeling well-informed but missing essential discussions", (II) "although feeling mostly satisfied with the care, remaining with unmet care needs", and (III) "fearing a referral to palliative care but acknowledging its importance". Conclusion: Although patients who are receiving multidisciplinary management in ambulatory HF clinics are generally satisfied with the care received, they remain with unmet needs. These unmet needs, such as the need for advance care planning or the need for timely and tactful end-of-life discussions, can be fulfilled by PC providers. Including personnel trained in PC as part of the multidisciplinary team could help to address patients' needs, thus improving the quality of care and the quality of life of people living with HF.

Development of an electronic Poor Outcome Screening (ePOS) Score to identify critically ill patients with potential palliative care needs.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate an electronic poor outcome screening (ePOS) score to identify critically ill patients with potentially unmet palliative care (PC) needs at 48 hours after ICU admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective single-centre cohort study of 1'772 critically ill adult patients admitted to a tertiary academic ICU in Switzerland between 2017 and 2018. We used data available from electronic health records (EHR) in the first 48 hours and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression to develop a prediction model and generate a score to predict the risk of all cause 6-month mortality. RESULTS: Within 6 months of the ICU admission, 598 patients (33.7%) had died. At a cut-off of 20 points, the ePOS score (range 0-46 points) had a sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.84) and a specificity of 0.51 (0.48 to 0.54) for predicting 6-month mortality and showed good discriminatory performance (AUROC 0.72, 0.67 to 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: The ePOS score can easily be implemented in EHR and can be used for automated screening and stratification of ICU patients, pinpointing those in whom a comprehensive PC assessment should be performed. However, it should not replace clinical judgement.

The 'Surprise question' in heart failure: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The Surprise Question (SQ) is a prognostic screening tool used to identify patients with limited life expectancy. We assessed the SQ's performance predicting 1-year mortality among patients in ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinics. We determined that the SQ's performance changes according to sex and other demographic (age) and clinical characteristics, mainly left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classifications. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in two HF clinics. To assess the performance of the SQ in predicting 1-year mortality, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the positive and negative predictive values. To illustrate if the results of the SQ changes the probability that a patient dies within 1 year, we created Fagan's nomograms. We report the results from the overall sample and for subgroups according to sex, age, LVEF and NYHA functional class. RESULTS: We observed that the SQ showed a sensitivity of 85% identifying ambulatory patients with HF who are in the last year of life. We determined that the SQ's performance predicting 1-year mortality was similar among women and men. The SQ performed better for patients aged under 70 years, for patients with reduced or mildly reduced ejection fraction, and for patients NYHA class III/IV. CONCLUSIONS: We consider the tool an easy and fast first step to identify patients with HF who might benefit from an advance care planning discussion or a referral to palliative care due to limited life expectancy.

Measuring intensity of end of life care: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have measured the intensity of end of life care. However, no summary of the measures used in the field is currently available. OBJECTIVES: To summarise features, characteristics of use and reported validity of measures used for evaluating intensity of end of life care. METHODS: This was a systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines. We performed a comprehensive literature search in Ovid Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews and reference lists published between 1990-2014. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, full texts and extracted data. Studies were eligible if they used a measure of end of life care intensity, defined as all quantifiable measures describing the type and intensity of medical care administered during the last year of life. RESULTS: A total of 58 of 1590 potentially eligible studies met our inclusion criteria and were included. The most commonly reported measures were hospitalizations (n = 44), intensive care unit admissions (n = 39) and chemotherapy use (n = 27). Studies measured intensity of care in different timeframes ranging from 48 hours to 12 months. The majority of studies were conducted in cancer patients (n = 31). Only 4 studies included information on validation of the measures used. None evaluated construct validity, while 3 studies considered criterion and 1 study reported both content and criterion validity. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides a synthesis to aid in choosing intensity of end of life care measures based on their previous use but simultaneously highlights the crucial need for more validation studies and consensus in the field.