Hepatitis C virus dynamics and cellular gene expression in uPA-SCID chimeric mice with humanized livers during intravenous silibinin monotherapy.

Legalon SIL (SIL) is a chemically hydrophilized version of silibinin, an extract of milk thistle (Silybum marianum) seeds that has exhibited hepatoprotective and antiviral effectiveness against hepatitis C virus (HCV) in patients leading to viral clearance in combination with ribavirin. To elucidate the incompletely understood mode of action of SIL against HCV, mathematical modelling of HCV kinetics and human hepatocyte gene expression studies were performed in uPA-SCID-chimeric mice with humanized livers. Chronically HCV-infected mice (n = 15) were treated for 14 days with daily intravenous SIL at 469, 265 or 61.5 mg/kg. Serum HCV and human albumin (hAlb) were measured frequently, and liver HCV RNA was analysed at days 3 and 14. Microarray analysis of human hepatocyte gene expression was performed at days 0, 3 and 14 of treatment. While hAlb remained constant, a biphasic viral decline in serum was observed consisting of a rapid 1st phase followed by a second slower phase (or plateau with the two lower SIL dosings). SIL effectiveness in blocking viral production was similar among dosing groups (median ε = 77%). However, the rate of HCV-infected hepatocyte decline, δ, was dose-dependent. Intracellular HCV RNA levels correlated (r = 0.66, P = 0.01) with serum HCV RNA. Pathway analysis revealed increased anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative gene expression in human hepatocytes in SIL-treated mice. The results suggest that SIL could lead to a continuous second-phase viral decline, that is potentially viral clearance, in the absence of adaptive immune response along with increased anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative gene expression in human hepatocytes.

Viral dynamic modelling of Hepatitis C and resistance-associated variants in haemophiliacs.

AIM: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important source of morbidity and mortality among haemophiliacs. Limited data are available regarding treatment intervention using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and theoretical concerns regarding accumulation of drug-associated resistance variants (RAVs) remain. We conducted a pilot study of treatment with telaprevir/pegylated interferon-alfa/ribavirin to evaluate treatment response and the role of lead-in DAA therapy on mutational selection of resistance variants. METHODS: Ultra-deep sequence analysis was performed at baseline, 48 hours and 168 hours after treatment initiation. RESULTS: No dominant RAVs were identified at baseline, but low-level RAVs were noted at baseline in all subjects. Viral dynamic models were used to assess treatment responses. The efficacy parameter (Ɛ) for lead-in ranged from 0 to 0.9745 (mean = 0.514). Subsequent addition of telaprevir resulted in a mean efficacy of more than 0.999. This was comparable to subjects who started all three medications simultaneously. A total of 80% achieved SVR. While rapid shifts in the RAV population following DAA initiation were observed, treatment failure associated with A156V was observed in only one patient. Adverse event profiles were similar to that observed in non-haemophilia cohorts. There was no evidence of factor inhibitor formation. There was no evidence that lead-in provided benefit in terms of response efficacy. CONCLUSION: These data support DAA-based therapy in those with inherited bleeding disorders.

The decay of the latent reservoir of replication-competent HIV-1 is inversely correlated with the extent of residual viral replication during prolonged anti-retroviral therapy.

Replication-competent HIV-1 can be isolated from infected patients despite prolonged plasma virus suppression by anti-retroviral treatment. Recent studies have identified resting, memory CD4+ T lymphocytes as a long-lived latent reservoir of HIV-1 (refs. 4,5). Cross-sectional analyses indicate that the reservoir is rather small, between 103 and 107 cells per patient. In individuals whose plasma viremia levels are well suppressed by anti-retroviral therapy, peripheral blood mononuclear cells containing replication-competent HIV-1 were found to decay with a mean half-life of approximately 6 months, close to the decay characteristics of memory lymphocytes in humans and monkeys. In contrast, little decay was found in a less-selective patient population. We undertook this study to address this apparent discrepancy. Using a quantitative micro-culture assay, we demonstrate here that the latent reservoir decays with a mean half-life of 6.3 months in patients who consistently maintain plasma HIV-1 RNA levels of fewer than 50 copies/ml. Slower decay rates occur in individuals who experience intermittent episodes of plasma viremia. Our findings indicate that the persistence of the latent reservoir of HIV-1 despite prolonged treatment is due not only to its slow intrinsic decay characteristics but also to the inability of current drug regimens to completely block HIV-1 replication.

Kinetics of acute hepatitis B virus infection in humans.

Using patient data from a unique single source outbreak of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, we have characterized the kinetics of acute HBV infection by monitoring viral turnover in the serum during the late incubation and clinical phases of the disease in humans. HBV replicates rapidly with minimally estimated doubling times ranging between 2.2 and 5.8 d (mean 3.7 +/- 1.5 d). After a peak viral load in serum of nearly 10(10) HBV DNA copies/ml is attained, clearance of HBV DNA follows a two or three phase decay pattern with an initial rapid decline characterized by mean half-life (t(1/2)) of 3.7 +/- 1.2 d, similar to the t(1/2) observed in the noncytolytic clearance of covalently closed circular DNA for other hepadnaviruses. The final phase of virion clearance occurs at a variable rate (t(1/2) of 4.8 to 284 d) and may relate to the rate of loss of infected hepatocytes. Free virus has a mean t(1/2) of at most 1.2 +/- 0.6 d. We estimate a peak HBV production rate of at least 10(13) virions/day and a maximum production rate of an infected hepatocyte of 200-1,000 virions/day, on average. At this peak rate of virion production we estimate that every possible single and most double mutations would be created each day.

Turnover of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes in HIV-1 infection as measured by Ki-67 antigen.

We investigated CD4+ and CD8+ T cell turnover in both healthy and HIV-1-infected adults by measuring the nuclear antigen Ki-67 specific for cell proliferation. The mean growth fraction, corresponding to the expression of Ki-67, was 1.1% for CD4(+) T cells and 1.0% in CD8(+) T cells in healthy adults, and 6.5 and 4.3% in HIV-1-infected individuals, respectively. Analysis of CD45RA+ and CD45RO+ T cell subsets revealed a selective expansion of the CD8+ CD45RO+ subset in HIV-1-positive individuals. On the basis of the growth fraction, we derived the potential doubling time and the daily turnover of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. In HIV-1-infected individuals, the mean potential doubling time of T cells was five times shorter than that of healthy adults. The mean daily turnover of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in HIV-1-infected individuals was increased 2- and 6-fold, respectively, with more than 40-fold interindividual variation. In patients with <200 CD4+ counts, CD4+ turnover dropped markedly, whereas CD8+ turnover remained elevated. The large variations in CD4+ T cell turnover might be relevant to individual differences in disease progression.

Effects of in vivo CD8(+) T cell depletion on virus replication in rhesus macaques immunized with a live, attenuated simian immunodeficiency virus vaccine.

The role of CD8(+) T lymphocytes in controlling replication of live, attenuated simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) was investigated as part of a vaccine study to examine the correlates of protection in the SIV/rhesus macaque model. Rhesus macaques immunized for >2 yr with nef-deleted SIV (SIVmac239Deltanef) and protected from challenge with pathogenic SIVmac251 were treated with anti-CD8 antibody (OKT8F) to deplete CD8(+) T cells in vivo. The effects of CD8 depletion on viral load were measured using a novel quantitative assay based on real-time polymerase chain reaction using molecular beacons. This assay allows simultaneous detection of both the vaccine strain and the challenge virus in the same sample, enabling direct quantification of changes in each viral population. Our results show that CD8(+) T cells were depleted within 1 h after administration of OKT8F, and were reduced by as much as 99% in the peripheral blood. CD8(+) T cell depletion was associated with a 1-2 log increase in SIVmac239Deltanef plasma viremia. Control of SIVmac239Deltanef replication was temporally associated with the recovery of CD8(+) T cells between days 8 and 10. The challenge virus, SIVmac251, was not detectable in either the plasma or lymph nodes after depletion of CD8(+) T cells. Overall, our results indicate that CD8(+) T cells play an important role in controlling replication of live, attenuated SIV in vivo.

Increased turnover of T lymphocytes in HIV-1 infection and its reduction by antiretroviral therapy.

The mechanism of CD4(+) T cell depletion in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection remains controversial. Using deuterated glucose to label the DNA of proliferating cells in vivo, we studied T cell dynamics in four normal subjects and seven HIV-1-infected patients naive to antiretroviral drugs. The results were analyzed using a newly developed mathematical model to determine fractional rates of lymphocyte proliferation and death. In CD4(+) T cells, mean proliferation and death rates were elevated by 6.3- and 2.9-fold, respectively, in infected patients compared with normal controls. In CD8(+) T cells, the mean proliferation rate was 7.7-fold higher in HIV-1 infection, but the mean death rate was not significantly increased. Five of the infected patients underwent subsequent deuterated glucose labeling studies after initiating antiretroviral therapy. The lymphocyte proliferation and death rates in both CD4(+) and CD8(+) cell populations were substantially reduced by 5-11 weeks and nearly normal by one year. Taken together, these new findings strongly indicate that CD4(+) lymphocyte depletion seen in AIDS is primarily a consequence of increased cellular destruction, not decreased cellular production.

Dramatic rise in plasma viremia after CD8(+) T cell depletion in simian immunodeficiency virus-infected macaques.

To determine the role of CD8(+) T cells in controlling simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) replication in vivo, we examined the effect of depleting this cell population using an anti-CD8 monoclonal antibody, OKT8F. There was on average a 99.9% reduction of CD8 cells in peripheral blood in six infected Macaca mulatta treated with OKT8F. The apparent CD8 depletion started 1 h after antibody administration, and low CD8 levels were maintained until day 8. An increase in plasma viremia of one to three orders of magnitude was observed in five of the six macaques. The injection of a control antibody to an infected macaque did not induce a sustained viral load increase, nor did it significantly reduce the number of CD8(+) T cells. These results demonstrate that CD8 cells play a crucial role in suppressing SIV replication in vivo.

A perspective on modelling hepatitis C virus infection.

By mathematically describing early hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA decay after initiation of interferon (IFN)-based antiviral therapy, crucial parameters of the in vivo viral kinetics have been estimated, such as the rate of production and clearance of free virus, and the rate of loss of infected cells. Furthermore, by suggesting mechanisms of action for IFN and ribavirin mathematical modelling has provided a means for evaluating and optimizing treatment strategies. Here, we review recent modelling developments for understanding complex viral kinetics patterns, such as triphasic HCV RNA declines and viral rebounds observed in patients treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Moreover, we discuss new modelling approaches developed to interpret the viral kinetics observed in clinical trials with direct-acting antiviral agents, which induce a rapid decline of wild-type virus but also engender a higher risk for emergence of drug-resistant variants. Lastly, as in vitro systems have allowed a better characterization of the virus lifecycle, we discuss new modelling approaches that combine the intracellular and the extracellular viral dynamics.

Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystems science.

Mathematical and computational approaches provide powerful tools in the study of problems in population biology and ecosystems science. The subject has a rich history intertwined with the development of statistics and dynamical systems theory, but recent analytical advances, coupled with the enhanced potential of high-speed computation, have opened up new vistas and presented new challenges. Key challenges involve ways to deal with the collective dynamics of heterogeneous ensembles of individuals, and to scale from small spatial regions to large ones. The central issues-understanding how detail at one scale makes its signature felt at other scales, and how to relate phenomena across scales-cut across scientific disciplines and go to the heart of algorithmic development of approaches to high-speed computation. Examples are given from ecology, genetics, epidemiology, and immunology.

Rapid turnover of T lymphocytes in SIV-infected rhesus macaques.

Studies of lymphocyte turnover in animal models have implications for understanding the mechanism of cell killing and the extent of lymphocyte regeneration in human immunodeficiency virus infection. Quantitative analyses of the sequential changes in bromodeoxyuridine labeling of CD4 and CD8 T lymphocytes not only revealed the normal proliferation and death rates of these cell populations in uninfected macaques, but also showed a substantial increase in these rates associated with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection. Faster labeling and delabeling in memory and naïve T lymphocyte subpopulations as well as in NK (natural killer) and B cells were also observed in infected macaques, suggesting a state of generalized activation induced by SIV.

HIV-1 dynamics in vivo: virion clearance rate, infected cell life-span, and viral generation time.

A new mathematical model was used to analyze a detailed set of human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) viral load data collected from five infected individuals after the administration of a potent inhibitor of HIV-1 protease. Productively infected cells were estimated to have, on average, a life-span of 2.2 days (half-life t 1/2 = 1.6 days), and plasma virions were estimated to have a mean life-span of 0.3 days (t 1/2 = 0.24 days). The estimated average total HIV-1 production was 10.3 x 10(9) virions per day, which is substantially greater than previous minimum estimates. The results also suggest that the minimum duration of the HIV-1 life cycle in vivo is 1.2 days on average, and that the average HIV-1 generation time--defined as the time from release of a virion until it infects another cell and causes the release of a new generation of viral particles--is 2.6 days. These findings on viral dynamics provide not only a kinetic picture of HIV-1 pathogenesis, but also theoretical principles to guide the development of treatment strategies.

Hepatitis C viral dynamics in vivo and the antiviral efficacy of interferon-alpha therapy.

To better understand the dynamics of hepatitis C virus and the antiviral effect of interferon-alpha-2b (IFN), viral decline in 23 patients during therapy was analyzed with a mathematical model. The analysis indicates that the major initial effect of IFN is to block virion production or release, with blocking efficacies of 81, 95, and 96% for daily doses of 5, 10, and 15 million international units, respectively. The estimated virion half-life (t1/2) was, on average, 2.7 hours, with pretreatment production and clearance of 10(12) virions per day. The estimated infected cell death rate exhibited large interpatient variation (corresponding t1/2 = 1.7 to 70 days), was inversely correlated with baseline viral load, and was positively correlated with alanine aminotransferase levels. Fast death rates were predictive of virus being undetectable by polymerase chain reaction at 3 months. These findings show that infection with hepatitis C virus is highly dynamic and that early monitoring of viral load can help guide therapy.

Quantitative image analysis of HIV-1 infection in lymphoid tissue.

Tracking human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) infection at the cellular level in tissue reservoirs provides opportunities to better understand the pathogenesis of infection and to rationally design and monitor therapy. A quantitative technique was developed to determine viral burden in two important cellular compartments in lymphoid tissues. Image analysis and in situ hybridization were combined to show that in the presymptomatic stages of infection there is a large, relatively stable pool of virions on the surfaces of follicular dendritic cells and a smaller pool of productively infected cells. Despite evidence of constraints on HIV-1 replication in the infected cell population in lymphoid tissues, estimates of the numbers of these cells and the virus they could produce are consistent with the quantities of virus that have been detected in the bloodstream. The cellular sources of virus production and storage in lymphoid tissues can now be studied with this approach over the course of infection and treatment.

Modelling the kinetics of hepatitis C virus RNA decline over 4 weeks of treatment with pegylated interferon alpha-2b.

Viral kinetic models for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have generally assumed that the effectiveness of therapy in blocking virion production, epsilon, is constant. However, with pegylated interferon alpha-2b (PEG-IFN) given weekly, there are significant changes in drug concentration between doses that may lead to changes in drug effectiveness and viral rebounds towards the end of the dosing interval. Here we investigate the effects of using a model that assumes a constant effectiveness for studies involving PEG-IFN. We simulated PEG-IFN treatment in a population of 294 computer simulated 'patients', each characterized by a different set of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters. We then sampled the simulated treatment data over 4 weeks with a schedule similar to that used in viral kinetic studies, and fitted a viral kinetic model assuming constant drug effectiveness, the CE model, to that data. Although the CE model was able to fit to the data well in most cases, the parameter estimates obtained scattered widely both above and below the true values. Thus, this model is less useful to analyse HCV RNA data during therapy with PEG-IFN than with standard IFN given daily. With PEG-IFN accurate estimation of viral dynamic parameters necessitates concomitant measurements of serum viral load and drug concentration.

Modelling hepatitis C virus kinetics during treatment with pegylated interferon alpha-2b: errors in the estimation of viral kinetic parameters.

Neumann et al. [1] developed a widely used model for the analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics after the initiation of interferon therapy that assumes the effectiveness of therapy in blocking virion production, epsilon, is constant. However, with pegylated interferon alpha-2b (PEG-IFN) given weekly, there are significant changes in drug concentration between doses, leading to changes in drug effectiveness and viral rebounds. To investigate the appropriateness of the constant effectiveness (CE) model [1] for studies involving PEG-IFN, we simulated PEG-IFN treatment, using 294 sets of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters that span observed ranges and fit the simulated data to the CE model. For most combinations of PK/PD parameters, the fits resulted in an infected cell loss rate, delta, that underestimates the true value used in the simulations and yielded over-estimates of the average effectiveness of PEG-IFN. In the setting of PEG-IFN therapy, the use of the CE model of HCV kinetics has to be reevaluated and the validity of its use depends on the amount of HCV RNA rebound observed between doses.

Kinetics of complementary RNA-RNA interaction involved in plasmid ColE1 copy number control.

Binding of a small antisense RNA (RNA I) to the primer transcript (RNA II) of plasmid ColE1 inhibits formation of primer for DNA polymerase I-mediated plasmid replication. It is thought that RNA I and RNA II transiently interact via their single-stranded loop regions to form an unstable complex that subsequently converts into a more stable complex by hybridization. Rom (or Rop) protein enhances the inhibitory effect of RNA I on replication by enhancing the binding of the two RNAs. In this paper, we develop a model for the kinetics of the RNA I-RNA II binding reaction, estimate the rate constants, and provide a quantitative description of the effects of Rom protein. We show that the reaction kinetics are consistent with a stepwise binding model in which Rom protein binds to RNA I and RNA II, while the RNAs are held together in a transient complex. Mutations that replace C.G pairs by T.A pairs in the RNA loop regions and thus display weaker hydrogen bonding between the loop regions should be associated with an increased rate of dissociation for the unstable complex. Our model predicts that such destabilization of the loop interactions leads to a greater enhancement in the binding rate by Rom protein. The available data support this prediction.

Quantitative model of ColE1 plasmid copy number control.

Initiation of replication of the Escherichia coli plasmid ColE1 is inhibited by formation of a complex between a small plasmid RNA (RNA I) and the pre-primer for DNA synthesis (RNA II). Complex formation (and inhibition of replication) is enhanced by the plasmid-encoded Rom protein. The in vitro kinetics of complex formation were previously studied both experimentally and theoretically. The in vivo concentrations and half-lives of RNA I, RNA II and Rom protein have been measured recently. We present a dynamic model for the in vivo replication control mechanism that accounts for the measured concentration values. From the model we deduce a simple formula for the steady-state plasmid concentration. Our results agree with a previous simple steady-state analysis done by Brenner and Tomizawa, in that plasmid copy number is most strongly dependent on the per plasmid rate of RNA I synthesis. However, our model predicts other parameter dependencies that are not evident from or at variance with the previous analysis. Accordingly, we predict that plasmid copy number is greatly influenced by changes in the rate constant describing the formation of an initial unstable RNA I-RNA II complex, but is only slightly influenced by changes in the dissociation rate of this complex. Plasmid copy number per average cell volume is predicted to increase linearly with increases in the RNA II synthesis rate and with increases in the generation time of the host culture. Rom protein, which promotes conversion of the unstable RNA I-RNA II complex to a stable complex, serves to decrease copy number; however, its presence or absence does not seem to qualitatively alter the copy number control mechanism. Our model predicts the quantitative increase of plasmid copy number in rom- mutants. Several experiments are suggested to investigate the predictions of the model.

Immunons revisited: binding of multivalent antigens to B cells.

The T-independent B cell response induced by highly multivalent hapten polymer preparations has been studied extensively. The in vitro measured dose-response curve tends to be roughly bell-shaped with the peak response occurring at very low ligand concentrations, between 0.1-1 ng/ml for a variety of different ligands. Furthermore, polymers with more than approximately 10 haptens tend to be stimulatory, whereas polymers with fewer than 10 haptens conjugated, tend to be inhibitory. These observations have been perplexing when viewed within the context of standard theories of receptor ligation by multivalent ligands. We present a new analysis of these previous experiments that reconciles the differences between theory and experiment. From this theory it is concluded that the peak in the observed dose response curve only weakly reflects properties of the ligand and the affinity of surface immunoglobulin for the hapten, but depends strongly on the density of antigen-specific B cells in the culture. The number of responding cells decreases at low ligand concentrations, because cells have to share limiting amounts of ligand and not because of the decreasing probability of receptors and ligands meeting each other. Our theory leads to the same conclusion as made by previous researchers, namely that a minimum number of receptor sites, of the order of 10, need to be bound to a single ligand in order to stimulate a B cell. While this conclusion was based on the lack of immunogenicity of antigens carrying less than a minimum number of haptens, the quantitative results of this study, derived from fitting experimental dose response curves obtained with highly multivalent antigens, provide evidence for the immunon hypothesis that is based upon the degree of receptor aggregation. Our theory also provides quantitative agreement with experimental observations on systems, in which both stimulatory and non-stimulatory polymers are mixed in the same system.

A method for determining whether the descending limb of a biphasic histamine release curve reflects insufficient cross-linking.

We introduce a kinetic method for determining whether the descending limb of a biphasic histamine release dose-response curve is the result of insufficient cross-linking, and delineate conditions under which it is applicable. The method involves examining kinetic curves showing for various fixed antigen concentrations the cumulative amount of histamine release as a function of time. From the slope of the kinetic curves measured at some fixed time one determines how the rate of release depends on concentration. We show under very general conditions that if the dose-response curve for histamine release reaches a peak, and then decreases over a concentration interval in which the rate of release does not decline, then the decline in the dose-response curve cannot be due to insufficient cross-linking. Consequently, a characteristic feature of antigen-excess inhibition of histamine release due to mechanisms other than insufficient cross-linking is the crossing of a kinetic curve generated at a suboptimal antigen concentration by a kinetic curve generated at a supraoptimal antigen concentration. We show that the technique is easily executed experimentally and provide kinetic evidence-suggesting that the rabbit basophils the antigen-excess inhibition of histamine release by bis-benzylpenicilloyl-1,6-diaminohexane (BPO2) is due to insufficient cross-linking, whereas the antigen-excess inhibition observed with ovalbumin probably is due to more complete desensitization mechanisms.