ABSTRACT
Basing on computer processing of 126 primary clinical and laboratory parameters obtained from 92 patients with myelodysplasia and using multifactorial regression analysis, the authors have developed prognostic models of life span and probability of transformation into acute leukemia. The model of life span enabled recognition of 3 prognostic groups of myelodysplasia patients: of high (median 10 months), moderate (median 22 months) and low (median 35 months) risk. This makes it possible to prognosticate the disease and assume optimal therapeutic policy.
Subject(s)
Myelodysplastic Syndromes/mortality , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Biopsy, Needle , Bone Marrow/pathology , Disease Progression , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Myelodysplastic Syndromes/pathology , Myelodysplastic Syndromes/therapy , Probability , Prognosis , Regression Analysis , Remission Induction , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
12 cases of ALL, 2 cases of ANLL and 3 cases of NHL have been registered among children aged 0-15 living in 6 Bryansk territory regions exposed to radionuclide contamination after the Chernobyl accident. The study covers the period from 1986 to 1991. There was an excess of acute Leukemia incidence in 1986 as indicated by 7 ALL and 1 ANLL cases. For ALL relative risk was 4.49, p = 0.006. In 2 cases AL was diagnosed before the accident, 2 patients fell ill in June, 2 in July, 1 in August, we have no exact date for 1 patient. Relative risk has never exceeded 1.0 for all the analyzed hemoblastoses within the last 5 years. The Poisson probability of chance occurrence of 8 AL cases in supervision regions during one year is 0.0004. Sex distribution of the cases was atypical either: 7 from 8 patients were boys. Binomial probability is 0.056 under the standard sex ratio 6:5. No evidence was obtained that this high incidence of childhood leukemia extends to neighbour regions of the Gomel, Mogilev and Bryansk territories. The descriptive epidemiological analysis has confirmed the existence of childhood leukemia incidence excess in 1986, but failed to explain its cause. Analysis of incidence rates alone is not enough to confirm connection between leukemia hazard and Chernobyl accident.