A continuous approach of modeling tumorigenesis and axons regulation for the pancreatic cancer.

The pancreatic innervation undergoes dynamic remodeling during the development of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Denervation experiments have shown that different types of axons can exert either pro- or anti-tumor effects, but conflicting results exist in the literature, leaving the overall influence of the nervous system on PDAC incompletely understood. To address this gap, we propose a continuous mathematical model of nerve-tumor interactions that allows in silico simulation of denervation at different phases of tumor development. This model takes into account the pro- or anti-tumor properties of different types of axons (sympathetic or sensory) and their distinct remodeling dynamics during PDAC development. We observe a "shift effect" where an initial pro-tumor effect of sympathetic axon denervation is later outweighed by the anti-tumor effect of sensory axon denervation, leading to a transition from an overall protective to a deleterious role of the nervous system on PDAC tumorigenesis. Our model also highlights the importance of the impact of sympathetic axon remodeling dynamics on tumor progression. These findings may guide strategies targeting the nervous system to improve PDAC treatment.

ABC random forests for Bayesian parameter inference.

MOTIVATION: Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian inference for models associated with intractable likelihood functions. Most ABC implementations require the preliminary selection of a vector of informative statistics summarizing raw data. Furthermore, in almost all existing implementations, the tolerance level that separates acceptance from rejection of simulated parameter values needs to be calibrated. RESULTS: We propose to conduct likelihood-free Bayesian inferences about parameters with no prior selection of the relevant components of the summary statistics and bypassing the derivation of the associated tolerance level. The approach relies on the random forest (RF) methodology of Breiman (2001) applied in a (non-parametric) regression setting. We advocate the derivation of a new RF for each component of the parameter vector of interest. When compared with earlier ABC solutions, this method offers significant gains in terms of robustness to the choice of the summary statistics, does not depend on any type of tolerance level, and is a good trade-off in term of quality of point estimator precision and credible interval estimations for a given computing time. We illustrate the performance of our methodological proposal and compare it with earlier ABC methods on a Normal toy example and a population genetics example dealing with human population evolution. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All methods designed here have been incorporated in the R package abcrf (version 1.7.1) available on CRAN. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Deciphering the Routes of invasion of Drosophila suzukii by Means of ABC Random Forest.

Deciphering invasion routes from molecular data is crucial to understanding biological invasions, including identifying bottlenecks in population size and admixture among distinct populations. Here, we unravel the invasion routes of the invasive pest Drosophila suzukii using a multi-locus microsatellite dataset (25 loci on 23 worldwide sampling locations). To do this, we use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which has improved the reconstruction of invasion routes, but can be computationally expensive. We use our study to illustrate the use of a new, more efficient, ABC method, ABC random forest (ABC-RF) and compare it to a standard ABC method (ABC-LDA). We find that Japan emerges as the most probable source of the earliest recorded invasion into Hawaii. Southeast China and Hawaii together are the most probable sources of populations in western North America, which then in turn served as sources for those in eastern North America. European populations are genetically more homogeneous than North American populations, and their most probable source is northeast China, with evidence of limited gene flow from the eastern US as well. All introduced populations passed through bottlenecks, and analyses reveal five distinct admixture events. These findings can inform hypotheses concerning how this species evolved between different and independent source and invasive populations. Methodological comparisons indicate that ABC-RF and ABC-LDA show concordant results if ABC-LDA is based on a large number of simulated datasets but that ABC-RF out-performs ABC-LDA when using a comparable and more manageable number of simulated datasets, especially when analyzing complex introduction scenarios.

Reliable ABC model choice via random forests.

MOTIVATION: Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. RESULTS: We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests (RF) to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with RF and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model for a second stage also relying on RF. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC RF approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least 50) and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to RF will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The proposed methodology is implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN. CONTACT: jean-michel.marin@umontpellier.fr SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood.

Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

Maximum-likelihood inference of population size contractions from microsatellite data.

Understanding the demographic history of populations and species is a central issue in evolutionary biology and molecular ecology. In this work, we develop a maximum-likelihood method for the inference of past changes in population size from microsatellite allelic data. Our method is based on importance sampling of gene genealogies, extended for new mutation models, notably the generalized stepwise mutation model (GSM). Using simulations, we test its performance to detect and characterize past reductions in population size. First, we test the estimation precision and confidence intervals coverage properties under ideal conditions, then we compare the accuracy of the estimation with another available method (MSVAR) and we finally test its robustness to misspecification of the mutational model and population structure. We show that our method is very competitive compared with alternative ones. Moreover, our implementation of a GSM allows more accurate analysis of microsatellite data, as we show that the violations of a single step mutation assumption induce very high bias toward false contraction detection rates. However, our simulation tests also showed some limits, which most importantly are large computation times for strong disequilibrium scenarios and a strong influence of some form of unaccounted population structure. This inference method is available in the latest implementation of the MIGRAINE software package.

DIYABC v2.0: a software to make approximate Bayesian computation inferences about population history using single nucleotide polymorphism, DNA sequence and microsatellite data.

MOTIVATION: DIYABC is a software package for a comprehensive analysis of population history using approximate Bayesian computation on DNA polymorphism data. Version 2.0 implements a number of new features and analytical methods. It allows (i) the analysis of single nucleotide polymorphism data at large number of loci, apart from microsatellite and DNA sequence data, (ii) efficient Bayesian model choice using linear discriminant analysis on summary statistics and (iii) the serial launching of multiple post-processing analyses. DIYABC v2.0 also includes a user-friendly graphical interface with various new options. It can be run on three operating systems: GNU/Linux, Microsoft Windows and Apple Os X. AVAILABILITY: Freely available with a detailed notice document and example projects to academic users at http://www1.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc CONTACT: estoup@supagro.inra.fr Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Estimation of population allele frequencies from next-generation sequencing data: pool-versus individual-based genotyping.

Molecular markers produced by next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies are revolutionizing genetic research. However, the costs of analysing large numbers of individual genomes remain prohibitive for most population genetics studies. Here, we present results based on mathematical derivations showing that, under many realistic experimental designs, NGS of DNA pools from diploid individuals allows to estimate the allele frequencies at single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with at least the same accuracy as individual-based analyses, for considerably lower library construction and sequencing efforts. These findings remain true when taking into account the possibility of substantially unequal contributions of each individual to the final pool of sequence reads. We propose the intuitive notion of effective pool size to account for unequal pooling and derive a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate this parameter directly from the data. We provide a user-friendly application assessing the accuracy of allele frequency estimation from both pool- and individual-based NGS population data under various sampling, sequencing depth and experimental error designs. We illustrate our findings with theoretical examples and real data sets corresponding to SNP loci obtained using restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing in pool- and individual-based experiments carried out on the same population of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa). NGS of DNA pools might not be optimal for all types of studies but provides a cost-effective approach for estimating allele frequencies for very large numbers of SNPs. It thus allows comparison of genome-wide patterns of genetic variation for large numbers of individuals in multiple populations.

The effect of RAD allele dropout on the estimation of genetic variation within and between populations.

Inexpensive short-read sequencing technologies applied to reduced representation genomes is revolutionizing genetic research, especially population genetics analysis, by allowing the genotyping of massive numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) for large numbers of individuals and populations. Restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing is a recent technique based on the characterization of genomic regions flanking restriction sites. One of its potential drawbacks is the presence of polymorphism within the restriction site, which makes it impossible to observe the associated SNP allele (i.e. allele dropout, ADO). To investigate the effect of ADO on genetic variation estimated from RAD markers, we first mathematically derived measures of the effect of ADO on allele frequencies as a function of different parameters within a single population. We then used RAD data sets simulated using a coalescence model to investigate the magnitude of biases induced by ADO on the estimation of expected heterozygosity and F(ST) under a simple demographic model of divergence between two populations. We found that ADO tends to overestimate genetic variation both within and between populations. Assuming a mutation rate per nucleotide between 10(-9) and 10(-8), this bias remained low for most studied combinations of divergence time and effective population size, except for large effective population sizes. Averaging F(ST) values over multiple SNPs, for example, by sliding window analysis, did not correct ADO biases. We briefly discuss possible solutions to filter the most problematic cases of ADO using read coverage to detect markers with a large excess of null alleles.

Sympathetic axonal sprouting induces changes in macrophage populations and protects against pancreatic cancer.

Neuronal nerve processes in the tumor microenvironment were highlighted recently. However, the origin of intra-tumoral nerves remains poorly known, in part because of technical difficulties in tracing nerve fibers via conventional histological preparations. Here, we employ three-dimensional (3D) imaging of cleared tissues for a comprehensive analysis of sympathetic innervation in a murine model of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Our results support two independent, but coexisting, mechanisms: passive engulfment of pre-existing sympathetic nerves within tumors plus an active, localized sprouting of axon terminals into non-neoplastic lesions and tumor periphery. Ablation of the innervating sympathetic nerves increases tumor growth and spread. This effect is explained by the observation that sympathectomy increases intratumoral CD163+ macrophage numbers, which contribute to the worse outcome. Altogether, our findings provide insights into the mechanisms by which the sympathetic nervous system exerts cancer-protective properties in a mouse model of PDAC.

Estimation of demo-genetic model probabilities with Approximate Bayesian Computation using linear discriminant analysis on summary statistics.

Comparison of demo-genetic models using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is an active research field. Although large numbers of populations and models (i.e. scenarios) can be analysed with ABC using molecular data obtained from various marker types, methodological and computational issues arise when these numbers become too large. Moreover, Robert et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011, 108, 15112) have shown that the conclusions drawn on ABC model comparison cannot be trusted per se and required additional simulation analyses. Monte Carlo inferential techniques to empirically evaluate confidence in scenario choice are very time-consuming, however, when the numbers of summary statistics (Ss) and scenarios are large. We here describe a methodological innovation to process efficient ABC scenario probability computation using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) on Ss before computing logistic regression. We used simulated pseudo-observed data sets (pods) to assess the main features of the method (precision and computation time) in comparison with traditional probability estimation using raw (i.e. not LDA transformed) Ss. We also illustrate the method on real microsatellite data sets produced to make inferences about the invasion routes of the coccinelid Harmonia axyridis. We found that scenario probabilities computed from LDA-transformed and raw Ss were strongly correlated. Type I and II errors were similar for both methods. The faster probability computation that we observed (speed gain around a factor of 100 for LDA-transformed Ss) substantially increases the ability of ABC practitioners to analyse large numbers of pods and hence provides a manageable way to empirically evaluate the power available to discriminate among a large set of complex scenarios.