Expression of estrogen receptors in non-malignant mammary tissue modifies the association between insulin-like growth factor 1 and breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported that the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) is positively associated with estrogen receptor-positive [ER(+)] breast cancer risk, whereas there is little or no association with respect to ER(-) breast cancer. All comparisons of ER(+) breast cancer cases, however, have been made versus healthy controls, for whom there is no information about the ER expression in their mammary gland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the context of a case-control investigation conducted in Athens, Greece, we studied 102 women with incident ERα(+) breast cancer and compared their IGF-1 blood levels with those of 178 ERα(+) and 83 ERα(-) women with benign breast disease (BBD) who underwent biopsies in the context of their standard medical care. Data were analysed using multiple logistic regression and controlling for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: ERα(+) breast cancer patients had higher IGF-1 levels compared with women with BBD [odds ratio (OR) 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.94, per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in IGF-1 levels]. When ERα status of women with BBD was taken into account, the difference in IGF-1 levels between ERα(+) breast cancer patients and women with BBD was clearly driven by the comparison with BBD women who were ERα(+) (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.31-2.89 per 1 SD increase in IGF-1 levels), whereas there was essentially no association with IGF-1 levels when ERα(+) breast cancer patients were compared with ERα(-) BBD women. These contrasts were particularly evident among post/peri-menopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence in support of an interaction of IGF-1 with the expression of ERα in the non-malignant mammary tissue in the context of breast cancer pathogenesis. This is in line with previous evidence suggesting that IGF-1 increases the risk of ER(+) breast cancer.

The hormonal profile of benign breast disease.

BACKGROUND: Limited information exists about the endocrine milieu of benign breast disease (BBD), a documented breast cancer risk factor. We compared blood levels of estrogens, testosterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) between BBD patients by histological type and women without breast pathology. METHODS: We studied 578 BBD patients and 178 healthy women in Athens, Greece, who provided blood samples, and completed interviewer-administered questionnaires. RESULTS: Of the BBD patients, 254 had non-proliferative disease, 268 proliferative disease without atypia and 56 atypical hyperplasia. Comparing BBD patients with healthy women, the per cent differences (and 95% confidence intervals) for blood hormones, among pre-menopausal and peri/post-menopausal women, respectively, were: 22.4% (-4.0%, 56.1%) and 32.0% (5.6%, 65.1%) for estradiol; 26.2% (10.1%, 44.8%) and 30.9% (16.8%, 46.6%) for estrone; 19.5% (3.1%, 38.4%) and 16.5% (-5.0%, 42.9%) for testosterone; and -5.2% (-13.8%, 4.4%) and -12.1% (-19.8%, -3.6%) for IGF-1. Steroid hormones tended to be higher in proliferative compared with non-proliferative BBD. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating steroid hormones tend to be higher among women with BBD than women with no breast pathology and higher in proliferative than non-proliferative disease; these patterns are more evident among peri/post-menopausal women. In peri/post-menopausal women IGF-1 was lower among women with BBD compared with healthy women.

A comparison of hormonal profiles between breast cancer and benign breast disease: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Benign breast disease (BBD), particularly proliferative BBD, is an established breast cancer risk factor. However, there has been no systematic attempt to compare the hormonal profiles of the two conditions. In a case-control investigation in Athens, Greece, we compared levels of estrogens, testosterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), as well as their principal binding proteins, between breast cancer patients, women with BBD by histological type (proliferative and nonproliferative) and women with no breast pathology. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied 466 women with incident breast cancer, 704 women with BBD and 244 healthy women. We used multiple regression to compare log-transformed serum hormone levels of breast cancer patients with those of healthy women and women with BBD by histological type (proliferative and nonproliferative BBD). RESULTS: The hormonal profile of breast cancer in our study was in line with the generally accepted hormonal profile of this disease, as reported from large cohort studies. Compared with healthy women, breast cancer patients tended to have higher levels of steroid hormones. The evidence was strong for estrone (difference 21.5%, P < 0.001), weaker for testosterone (difference 15.8%, P = 0.07) and weaker still for estradiol (difference 12.0%, P = 0.18). Also compared with healthy women, breast cancer patients had barely higher levels of IGF-1 (difference 2.0%, P = 0.51), but had significantly lower levels of IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) (difference -6.7%, P = 0.001). Compared with women with BBD, breast cancer patients had nonstatistically significantly lower levels of steroid hormones, but they had higher levels of IGF-1 [difference 5.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7% to 10.6%] and lower levels of IGFBP-3 (difference -3.7%, 95% CI -6.7% to -0.7%). Differences were more pronounced when breast cancer patients were contrasted to women with proliferative BBD. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that high levels of IGF-1 may be an important factor toward the evolution of BBD to breast cancer.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains the second cause of death worldwide. The mechanisms underlying the adverse association of exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) with overall cardiovascular disease may also apply to stroke. Our objective was to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations of long-term exposure to TRAP with stroke. METHODS: PubMed and LUDOK electronic databases were searched systematically for observational epidemiological studies from 1980 through 2019 on long-term exposure to TRAP and stroke with an update in January 2022. TRAP was defined according to a comprehensive protocol based on pollutant and exposure assessment methods or proximity metrics. Study selection, data extraction, risk of bias (RoB) and confidence assessments were conducted according to standardized protocols. We performed meta-analyses using random effects models; sensitivity analyses were assessed by geographic area, RoB, fatality, traffic specificity and new studies. RESULTS: Nineteen studies were included. The meta-analytic relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals) were: 1.03 (0.98-1.09) per 1 µg/m3 EC, 1.09 (0.96-1.23) per 10 µg/m3 PM10, 1.08 (0.89-1.32) per 5 µg/m3 PM2.5, 0.98 (0.92; 1.05) per 10 µg/m3 NO2 and 0.99 (0.94; 1.04) per 20 µg/m3 NOx with little to moderate heterogeneity based on 6, 5, 4, 7 and 8 studies, respectively. The confidence assessments regarding the quality of the body of evidence and separately regarding the presence of an association of TRAP with stroke considering all available evidence were rated low and moderate, respectively. CONCLUSION: The available literature provides low to moderate evidence for an association of TRAP with stroke.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and non-accidental mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The health effects of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) continue to be of important public health interest across the globe. Following its 2010 review, the Health Effects Institute appointed a new expert Panel to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations between long-term exposure to TRAP and selected health outcomes. This paper describes the main findings of the systematic review on non-accidental mortality. METHODS: The Panel used a systematic approach to conduct the review. An extensive search was conducted of literature published between 1980 and 2019. A new exposure framework was developed to determine whether a study was sufficiently specific to TRAP, which included studies beyond the near-roadway environment. We performed random-effects meta-analysis when at least three estimates were available of an association between a specific exposure and outcome. We evaluated confidence in the evidence using a modified Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach, supplemented with a broader narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Thirty-six cohort studies were included. Virtually all studies adjusted for a large number of individual and area-level covariates-including smoking, body mass index, and individual and area-level socioeconomic status-and were judged at a low or moderate risk for bias. Most studies were conducted in North America and Europe, and a few were based in Asia and Australia. The meta-analytic summary estimates for nitrogen dioxide, elemental carbon and fine particulate matter-pollutants with more than 10 studies-were 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.06), 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) and 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) per 10, 1 and 5 µg/m3, respectively. Effect estimates are interpreted as the relative risk of mortality when the exposure differs with the selected increment. The confidence in the evidence for these pollutants was judged as high, because of upgrades for monotonic exposure-response and consistency across populations. The consistent findings across geographical regions, exposure assessment methods and confounder adjustment resulted in a high confidence rating using a narrative approach as well. CONCLUSIONS: The overall confidence in the evidence for a positive association between long-term exposure to TRAP and non-accidental mortality was high.

Three-dimensional ultrasound and three-dimensional power Doppler improve the preoperative evaluation of complex benign ovarian lesions.

PURPOSE OF INVESTIGATION: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of three-dimensional ultrasound (3D-US) and three-dimensional power-Doppler (3DPD-US) as adjuncts to conventional B-mode-US in evaluation of complex benign ovarian lesions. METHODS: Transvaginal B-mode-US, 3D-US and 3DPD-US were performed in 29 patients with unilateral ovarian lesion. Patients were classified as low or high risk for malignancy according to a standardized scoring system composed of ten morphological and vascular parameters. Preoperative scores were matched to the histological results and the diagnostic performance of the scoring system was calculated. RESULTS: Seven out of the 16 cases of endometriomas (44%) were graded as low risk masses according to B-mode-US, while the addition of 3D-US and 3DPD-US increased the accuracy to 56% and 94%, respectively. All dermoid cysts were classified as high risk cases by B-mode-US, but 3D-US and 3DPD-US correctly classified 14% and 57% of cases, respectively. The use of B-mode-US, 3D-US and 3DPD-US correctly classified all four cystadenomas. Only the use of 3DPD-US correctly classified one out of two hemorrhagic corpus luteum cases, whereas the other imaging modalities characterized these lesions as high risk. The overall diagnostic accuracy increased from 38%, 48%, ana 83% with the application of B-mode-US alone, or combined with 3D-US and 3DPD-US, respectively. CONCLUSION: Conventional ultrasound supplemented with 3D-US and 3DPD-US and the evaluation of findings according to a specific scoring system can facilitate the preoperative classification of complex benign ovarian lesions.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and selected health outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The health effects of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) continue to be of important public health interest. Following its well-cited 2010 critical review, the Health Effects Institute (HEI) appointed a new expert Panel to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations between long-term exposure to TRAP and selected adverse health outcomes. Health outcomes were selected based on evidence of causality for general air pollution (broader than TRAP) cited in authoritative reviews, relevance for public health and policy, and resources available. The Panel used a systematic approach to search the literature, select studies for inclusion in the review, assess study quality, summarize results, and reach conclusions about the confidence in the evidence. An extensive search was conducted of literature published between January 1980 and July 2019 on selected health outcomes. A new exposure framework was developed to determine whether a study was sufficiently specific to TRAP. In total, 353 studies were included in the review. Respiratory effects in children (118 studies) and birth outcomes (86 studies) were the most commonly studied outcomes. Fewer studies investigated cardiometabolic effects (57 studies), respiratory effects in adults (50 studies), and mortality (48 studies). The findings from the systematic review, meta-analyses, and evaluation of the quality of the studies and potential biases provided an overall high or moderate-to-high level of confidence in an association between long-term exposure to TRAP and the adverse health outcomes all-cause, circulatory, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer mortality, asthma onsetin chilldren and adults, and acute lower respiratory infections in children. The evidence was considered moderate, low or very low for the other selected outcomes. In light of the large number of people exposed to TRAP - both in and beyond the near-road environment - the Panel concluded that the overall high or moderate-to-high confidence in the evidence for an association between long-term exposure to TRAP and several adverse health outcomes indicates that exposures to TRAP remain an important public health concern and deserve greater attention from the public and from policymakers.

Maternal and cord blood hormone levels in the United States and China and the intrauterine origin of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is less common in China than in the United States and perinatal characteristics predict breast cancer risk in the offspring. We determined levels of pregnancy hormones in Boston and Shanghai to identify those possibly involved in the intrauterine origin of breast cancer. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: We compared maternal and cord blood levels of estradiol, estriol, testosterone, progesterone, prolactin, insulin-like growth factors (IGF) 1 and 2, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3, adiponectin and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in 241 Caucasian and 295 Chinese women. RESULTS: In both centers, hormone levels at the 16th were predictive of those at the 27th gestational week, but there was little correlation between maternal and cord blood levels. In cord blood, we found significantly (P < 0.01) higher levels of estradiol (44.2%), testosterone (54.5%), IGF-2 (22.7%) and strikingly SHBG (104.6%) in Shanghai women, whereas the opposite was true for IGF-1 (-36.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Taking into account the current understanding of the plausible biological role of the examined endocrine factors, those likely to be involved in the intrauterine origin of breast cancer are SHBG and IGF-2, with higher cord blood levels among Chinese, and IGF-1, with higher cord blood levels among Caucasian women.

Acute effects of air pollution on pediatric asthma exacerbation: evidence of association and effect modification.

We investigated the short-term effects of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 µg/m(3) (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and ozone (O(3)) on pediatric asthma emergency admissions in Athens, Greece over the period 2001-2004. We explored effect modification patterns by season, sex, age and by the presence of desert dust transported mainly from the Sahara area. We used daily time-series data provided by the children's hospitals and the fixed monitoring stations. The associations were investigated using Poisson regression models controlling for seasonality, weather, influenza episodes, day of the week and holiday effects. A 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM(10) was associated with a 2.54% increase (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.06%, 5.08%) in the number of pediatric asthma hospital admissions, while the same increase in SO(2) was associated with a 5.98% (95% CI: 0.88%, 11.33%) increase. O(3) was associated with a statistically significant increase in asthma admissions among older children in the summer. Our findings provide limited evidence of an association between NO(2) exposure and asthma exacerbation. Statistically significant PM(10) effects were higher during winter and during desert dust days, while SO(2) effects occurred mainly during spring. Our study confirms previously reported PM(10) effects on emergency hospital admissions for pediatric asthma and further provides evidence of stronger effects during desert dust days. We additionally report severe effects of SO(2), even at today's low concentration levels.

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Insulin-like growth factor levels in cord blood, birth weight and breast cancer risk.

Breast cancer incidence and birth weight are higher among Caucasian than Asian women, and birth size has been positively associated with breast cancer risk. Pregnancy hormone levels, however, have been generally lower in Caucasian than Asian women. We studied components of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system in cord blood from 92 singleton babies born in Boston, USA, and 110 born in Shanghai, China, in 1994-1995. Cord blood IGF-1 was significantly higher among Caucasian compared with Chinese babies (P<10(-6)). The opposite was noted for IGF-2 (P approximately 10(-4)). IGF-1 was significantly positively associated with birth weight and birth length in Boston, but not Shanghai. In contrast, stronger positive, though statistically non-significant, associations of IGF-2 with birth size were only evident in Shanghai. The associations of birth weight and birth length were positive and significant in taller women (for IGF-1 in Boston P approximately 0.003 and 0.03, respectively; for IGF-2 in Shanghai P approximately 0.05 and approximately 0.04, respectively), among whom maternal anthropometry does not exercise strong constraints in foetal growth. The documentation of higher cord blood levels of IGF-1, a principal growth hormone that does not cross the placenta, among Caucasian than in Asian newborns is concordant with breast cancer incidence in these populations.

Spatial variability in air pollution exposure in relation to socioeconomic indicators in nine European metropolitan areas: A study on environmental inequality.

A limited number of studies have addressed environmental inequality, using various study designs and methodologies and often reaching contradictory results. Following a standardized multi-city data collection process within the European project EURO-HEALTHY, we conducted an ecological study to investigate the spatial association between nitrogen dioxide (NO2), as a surrogate for traffic related air pollution, and ten socioeconomic indicators at local administrative unit level in nine European Metropolitan Areas. We applied mixed models for the associations under investigation with random intercepts per Metropolitan Area, also accounting for the spatial correlation. The stronger associations were observed between NO2 levels and population density, population born outside the European Union (EU28), total crimes per 100,000 inhabitants and unemployment rate that displayed a highly statistically significant trend of increasing concentrations with increasing levels of the indicators. Specifically, the highest vs the lowest quartile of each indicator above was associated with 48.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 42.9%, 54.8%), 30.9% (95%CI: 22.1%, 40.2%), 19.8% (95%CI: 13.4%, 26.6%) and 15.8% (95%CI: 9.9%, 22.1%) increase in NO2 respectively. The association with population density most probably reflects the higher volume in vehicular traffic, which is the main source of NO2 in urban areas. Higher pollution levels in areas with higher percentages of people born outside EU28, crime or unemployment rates indicate that worse air quality is typically encountered in deprived European urban areas. Policy makers should consider spatial environmental inequalities to better inform actions aiming to lower urban air pollution levels that will subsequently lead to improved quality of life, public health and health equity across the population.

Has the risk of mortality related to short-term exposure to particles changed over the past years in Athens, Greece?

Although the health effects of short-term exposure to ambient particles have been well documented, there is a need to update scientific knowledge due to the continuously changing profile of the air pollution mixture. Furthermore the effect of the severe economic crisis in Greece that started in 2008 on previously reported associations has not been studied. We assessed the change in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to PM10 in Athens, Greece during 2001-12. Time-series data on the daily concentrations of regulated particles and all cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were analyzed using overdispersed Poisson regression models, controlling for time-varying confounders such as seasonality, meteorology, influenza outbreaks, summer holidays and day of the week. We assessed changes in risk over time by inclusion of an interaction term between particles' levels and time or predefined periods, i.e. 2001-07 and 2008-12. While the related mortality risks increased over the analyzed period, the difference before and after 2008 was significant only for total mortality (p-value for interaction .03) and driven by the difference observed among those ≥75 years. An interquartile increase in PM10 before 2008 was associated with 1.51% increase in deaths among ≥75 years (95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.62%, 2.40%), while after 2008 with a 2.61% increase (95%CI: 1.72%, 3.51%) (p-value for interaction .01). Our results indicate that despite the decline in particles' concentration in Athens, Greece during 2001-12 the associated mortality risk has possibly increased, suggesting that the economic crisis initiated in 2008 may have led to changes in the particles' composition due to the ageing of the vehicular fleet and the increase in the use of biomass fuel for heating.

Flavonoid classes and risk of peripheral arterial occlusive disease: a case-control study in Greece.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between specific flavonoid classes and peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD), an important manifestation of atherosclerosis. DESIGN: Using data from a case-control study conducted in Greece in 1980 on the nutritional epidemiology of PAOD, we have exploited recently published databases on the content of foods in specific flavonoid classes to assess the relation between intake of these compounds and PAOD. SETTING: A major teaching hospital in Athens, Greece. SUBJECTS: Cases were 100 patients with PAOD and controls 100 patients with minor surgical conditions admitted to the same hospital. INTERVENTIONS: No interventions. All cases and controls were interviewed in the hospital wards, and a 110-food item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire was administered by the same interviewer. RESULTS: Flavonols, flavones and perhaps flavan-3-ols were inversely associated with PAOD risk, the odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for increments equal to the corresponding standard deviations being 0.41 (0.20-0.86), 0.56 (0.32-0.96) and 0.53 (0.26-1.05), respectively. Total flavonoids were also significantly inversely associated with PAOD. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of these results, the biological properties of flavonoids and evidence concerning their relation to other manifestations of atherosclerosis, we conclude that dietary intake of specific classes of flavonoids, as well as total flavonoids, may have a protective effect against PAOD. SPONSORSHIP: This study was partially supported by a grant to Harvard University by the Samourkas Foundation.

Particulate matter air pollution components and risk for lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a human lung carcinogen; however, the components responsible have not been identified. We assessed the associations between PM components and lung cancer incidence. METHODS: We used data from 14 cohort studies in eight European countries. We geocoded baseline addresses and assessed air pollution with land-use regression models for eight elements (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) in size fractions of PM2.5 and PM10. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effect models for meta-analysis. RESULTS: The 245,782 cohort members contributed 3,229,220 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean, 13.1 years), 1878 incident cases of lung cancer were diagnosed. In the meta-analyses, elevated hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer were associated with all elements except V; none was statistically significant. In analyses restricted to participants who did not change residence during follow-up, statistically significant associations were found for PM2.5 Cu (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53 per 5 ng/m(3)), PM10 Zn (1.28; 1.02-1.59 per 20 ng/m(3)), PM10 S (1.58; 1.03-2.44 per 200 ng/m(3)), PM10 Ni (1.59; 1.12-2.26 per 2 ng/m(3)) and PM10 K (1.17; 1.02-1.33 per 100 ng/m(3)). In two-pollutant models, associations between PM10 and PM2.5 and lung cancer were largely explained by PM2.5 S. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the association between PM in air pollution and lung cancer can be attributed to various PM components and sources. PM containing S and Ni might be particularly important.

Ubiquitous presence of O6-methylguanine in human peripheral and cord blood DNA.

O6-Methylguanine (O6-meG) is a powerful premutagenic lesion that can arise from exposure to methylating agents. Although it has been reported to occur in human DNA, no systematic epidemiological analysis of its occurrence in populations suffering general environmental exposure is available. We report here results from a study of the presence of O6-meG in maternal and cord blood leukocyte DNA of women not knowingly exposed to methylating agents. Using a modification of an already existing method capable of detecting the lesion at levels as low as 16 nmol/molG, the adduct was detected in 31 of 36 maternal and 30 of 36 cord samples, at levels ranging up to 192 nmol/molG. Adduct levels in maternal blood DNA were significantly higher than those in cord blood DNA (P < 0.05), and there was a strong correlation between adduct levels in the two tissues (P < 0.001). In bivariate analysis, no significant association of adduct levels in either tissue and residence air pollution, active and passive smoking status, or eating habits was found. However, intake of fruits/vegetables and of vitamin supplements showed nonstatistically significant trends toward being associated with lower adduct levels in both maternal and cord blood DNA. The same trend was observed after multivariate analysis where all the above variables were controlled for. These findings indicate that premutagenic methylation DNA damage is commonplace in individuals not known to have suffered excessive exposure to environmental methylating agents or their precursors and are compatible with an endogenous origin of this damage, possibly associated with endogenous nitrosation processes.

Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece.

We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available for 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow [increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly flow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation.

Investigating regional differences in short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in the APHEA project: a sensitivity analysis for controlling long-term trends and seasonality.

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in eight western and five central-eastern European countries have been reported previously, as part of the APHEA project. One intriguing finding was that the effects were lower in central-eastern European cities. The analysis used sinusoidal terms for seasonal control and polynomial terms for meteorologic variables, but this is a more rigid approach than the currently accepted method, which uses generalized additive models (GAM). We therefore reanalyzed the original data to examine the sensitivity of the results to the statistical model. The data were identical to those used in the earlier analyses. The outcome was the daily total number of deaths, and the pollutants analyzed were black smoke (BS) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)). The analyses were restricted to days with pollutant concentration < 200 microg/m(3) and < 150 microg/m(3) alternately. We used Poisson regression in a GAM model, and combined individual city regression coefficients using fixed and random-effect models. An increase in BS by 50 microg/m(3) was associated with a 2.2% and 3.1% increase in mortality when analysis was restricted to days < 200 microg/m(3) and < 150 microg/m(3), respectively. The corresponding figures were 5.0% and 5.6% for a similar increase in SO(2). These estimates are larger than the ones published previously: by 69% for BS and 55% for SO(2). The increase occurred only in central-eastern European cities. The ratio of western to central-eastern cities for estimates was reduced to 1.3 for BS (previously 4.8) and 2.6 for SO(2) (previously 4.4). We conclude that part of the heterogeneity in the estimates of air pollution effects between western and central-eastern cities reported in previous publications was caused by the statistical approach used and the inclusion of days with pollutant levels above 150 microg/m(3). However, these results must be investigated further.

Daily mortality and "winter type" air pollution in Athens, Greece--a time series analysis within the APHEA project.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: There is evidence that air pollution in Athens between 1975 and 1987 had adverse short term health effects. The short term effects of "winter type" air pollution on the daily total number of deaths are investigated for the period 1987-91 as part of the European Community multi centre APHEA project. DESIGN: A temporal study using aggregated data is presented. The associations of the daily time series of three pollutants, sulphur dioxide (SO2), black smoke (BS), and carbon monoxide (CO) and the daily total number of deaths in the Athens area were assessed. DATA AND METHODS: The average measurement from three stations was used for each pollutant. The daily number of deaths was recorded from the Athens Town Registry and the registries of the 18 municipalities contiguous to Athens. Data on the mean daily temperature (degree C) and relative humidity (%) were also used. Poisson autoregressive models that also allowed for overdispersion were used. Seasonality, other long term patterns, temperature, humidity, day of the week, and holidays were adjusted for. Several a priori defined pollutant transformations and lags were investigated. One day measurements as well as cumulative exposure effects were assessed. Effect modification by season as well as among pollutants was tested. MAIN RESULTS: Linear terms were used for all pollutants. The magnitude of the effect was greater at lags 0 for CO and 1 for BS and SO2 gradually declining after lag 1. For an increase of 100 micrograms/m3 in SO2 and BS there were corresponding increases (95% CI) of 12% (7%, 16%) and 5% (3%, 8%) in the daily total numbers of deaths, while for an increase of 10 micrograms/m3 in CO the increase (95% CI) in the daily total number of deaths was 10% (5%, 15%). A significant interaction of the effects of SO2 with season were found. The strongest effect was observed during the winter, when higher levels of SO2 were observed. A stronger effect of SO2 on the daily total number of deaths was observed when the levels of BS were > 100 micrograms/m3. CONCLUSIONS: These results strengthen the evidence of a causal association between ambient particle, SO2, or CO levels in the air and the daily total number of deaths and points to an important public health issue for the Athens population.

Short-term effects of particulate air pollution on cardiovascular diseases in eight European cities.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: As part of the APHEA project this study examined the association between airborne particles and hospital admissions for cardiac causes (ICD9 390-429) in eight European cities (Barcelona, Birmingham, London, Milan, the Netherlands, Paris, Rome, and Stockholm). All admissions were studied, as well as admissions stratified by age. The association for ischaemic heart disease (ICD9 410-413) and stroke (ICD9 430-438) was also studied, also stratified by age. DESIGN: Autoregressive Poisson models were used that controlled for long term trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorology to assess the short-term effects of particles in each city. The study also examined confounding by other pollutants. City specific results were pooled in a second stage regression to obtain more stable estimates and examine the sources of heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS: The pooled percentage increases associated with a 10 micro g/m(3) increase in PM(10) and black smoke were respectively 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.8) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.8) for cardiac admissions of all ages, 0.7% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.0) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.4 to 2.2) for cardiac admissions over 65 years, and, 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3 to 1.2) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7 to 1.5) for ischaemic heart disease over 65 years. The effect of PM(10) was little changed by control for ozone or SO(2), but was substantially reduced (CO) or eliminated (NO(2)) by control for other traffic related pollutants. The effect of black smoke remained practically unchanged controlling for CO and only somewhat reduced controlling for NO(2). CONCLUSIONS: These effects of particulate air pollution on cardiac admissions suggest the primary effect is likely to be mainly attributable to diesel exhaust. Results for ischaemic heart disease below 65 years and for stroke over 65 years were inconclusive.