ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Post-transplant prediabetes (PreDM) and diabetes (PTDM) are common and have an impact on cardiovascular events. We sought to investigate the pathogenesis and best approach for prediction. METHODS: We prospectively studied 115 waitlisted patients from a single center without manifest diabetes. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed yearly until transplantation and 12 months later. Insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity (IS) and disposition index (DI) were derived from the OGTT. RESULTS: PreDM and PTDM were observed in 27% and 28.6% of patients, respectively. Pretransplant age, body mass index (BMI), 120 min glucose, IS, DI, and prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes were significantly associated with these alterations. In multivariate analysis, pretransplant age [odds ratio (OR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-2.1], BMI (OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.04-1.3) and cumulative steroids (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.02-2.2) were predictors of PreDM or PTDM. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that pretransplant BMI and 120 min glucose had the highest area under the curve (0.72; 95% CI 0.62-0.8; and 0.69; 95% CI 0.59-0.79, respectively). The highest discrimination cut-off for BMI (≥28.5 kg/m2) and 120 min glucose (≥123.5 mg/dL) yielded a similar number needed to diagnose (2.5). CONCLUSIONS: PreDM or PTDM develops in waitlisted patients with an ineffective insulin secretion and BMI shows a similar diagnostic capacity to OGTT. Pretransplant interventions may reduce post-transplant glucose alterations.