Dynamical System Modeling to Simulate Donor T Cell Response to Whole Exome Sequencing-Derived Recipient Peptides Demonstrates Different Alloreactivity Potential in HLA-Matched and -Mismatched Donor-Recipient Pairs.

Immune reconstitution kinetics and subsequent clinical outcomes in HLA-matched recipients of allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) are variable and difficult to predict. Considering SCT as a dynamical system may allow sequence differences across the exomes of the transplant donors and recipients to be used to simulate an alloreactive T cell response, which may allow better clinical outcome prediction. To accomplish this, whole exome sequencing was performed on 34 HLA-matched SCT donor-recipient pairs (DRPs) and the nucleotide sequence differences translated to peptides. The binding affinity of the peptides to the relevant HLA in each DRP was determined. The resulting array of peptide-HLA binding affinity values in each patient was considered as an operator modifying a hypothetical T cell repertoire vector, in which each T cell clone proliferates in accordance with the logistic equation of growth. Using an iterating system of matrices, each simulated T cell clone's growth was calculated with the steady-state population being proportional to the magnitude of the binding affinity of the driving HLA-peptide complex. Incorporating competition between T cell clones responding to different HLA-peptide complexes reproduces a number of features of clinically observed T cell clonal repertoire in the simulated repertoire, including sigmoidal growth kinetics of individual T cell clones and overall repertoire, Power Law clonal frequency distribution, increase in repertoire complexity over time with increasing clonal diversity, and alteration of clonal dominance when a different antigen array is encountered, such as in SCT. The simulated, alloreactive T cell repertoire was markedly different in HLA-matched DRPs. The patterns were differentiated by rate of growth and steady-state magnitude of the simulated T cell repertoire and demonstrate a possible correlation with survival. In conclusion, exome wide sequence differences in DRPs may allow simulation of donor alloreactive T cell response to recipient antigens and may provide a quantitative basis for refining donor selection and titration of immunosuppression after SCT.

Dynamical System Modeling of Immune Reconstitution after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Identifies Patients at Risk for Adverse Outcomes.

Systems that evolve over time and follow mathematical laws as they evolve are called dynamical systems. Lymphocyte recovery and clinical outcomes in 41 allograft recipients conditioned using antithymocyte globulin (ATG) and 4.5-Gy total body irradiation were studied to determine if immune reconstitution could be described as a dynamical system. Survival, relapse, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were not significantly different in 2 cohorts of patients receiving different doses of ATG. However, donor-derived CD3(+) cell reconstitution was superior in the lower ATG dose cohort, and there were fewer instances of donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI). Lymphoid recovery was plotted in each individual over time and demonstrated 1 of 3 sigmoid growth patterns: Pattern A (n = 15) had rapid growth with high lymphocyte counts, pattern B (n = 14) had slower growth with intermediate recovery, and pattern C (n = 10) had poor lymphocyte reconstitution. There was a significant association between lymphocyte recovery patterns and both the rate of change of donor-derived CD3(+) at day 30 after stem cell transplantation (SCT) and clinical outcomes. GVHD was observed more frequently with pattern A, relapse and DLI more so with pattern C, with a consequent survival advantage in patients with patterns A and B. We conclude that evaluating immune reconstitution after SCT as a dynamical system may differentiate patients at risk of adverse outcomes and allow early intervention to modulate that risk.

Whole exome sequencing to estimate alloreactivity potential between donors and recipients in stem cell transplantation.

Whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed on stem cell transplant donor-recipient (D-R) pairs to determine the extent of potential antigenic variation at a molecular level. In a small cohort of D-R pairs, a high frequency of sequence variation was observed between the donor and recipient exomes independent of human leucocyte antigen (HLA) matching. Nonsynonymous, nonconservative single nucleotide polymorphisms were approximately twice as frequent in HLA-matched unrelated, compared with related D-R pairs. When mapped to individual chromosomes, these polymorphic nucleotides were uniformly distributed across the entire exome. In conclusion, WES reveals extensive nucleotide sequence variation in the exomes of HLA-matched donors and recipients.

Sequence homology between HLA-bound cytomegalovirus and human peptides: A potential trigger for alloreactivity.

Human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) reactivation may often coincide with the development of graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD) in stem cell transplantation (SCT). Seventy seven SCT donor-recipient pairs (DRP) (HLA matched unrelated donor (MUD), n = 50; matched related donor (MRD), n = 27) underwent whole exome sequencing to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) generating alloreactive peptide libraries for each DRP (9-mer peptide-HLA complexes); Human CMV CROSS (Cross-Reactive Open Source Sequence) database was compiled from NCBI; HLA class I binding affinity for each DRPs HLA was calculated by NetMHCpan 2.8 and hCMV- derived 9-mers algorithmically compared to the alloreactive peptide-HLA complex libraries. Short consecutive (≥6) amino acid (AA) sequence homology matching hCMV to recipient peptides was considered for HLA-bound-peptide (IC50<500nM) cross reactivity. Of the 70,686 hCMV 9-mers contained within the hCMV CROSS database, an average of 29,658 matched the MRD DRP alloreactive peptides and 52,910 matched MUD DRP peptides (p<0.001). In silico analysis revealed multiple high affinity, immunogenic CMV-Human peptide matches (IC50<500 nM) expressed in GVHD-affected tissue-specific manner. hCMV+GVHD was found in 18 patients, 13 developing hCMV viremia before GVHD onset. Analysis of patients with GVHD identified potential cross reactive peptide expression within affected organs. We propose that hCMV peptide sequence homology with human alloreactive peptides may contribute to the pathophysiology of GVHD.

Dynamical system modeling to simulate donor T cell response to whole exome sequencing-derived recipient peptides: Understanding randomness in alloreactivity incidence following stem cell transplantation.

Quantitative relationship between the magnitude of variation in minor histocompatibility antigens (mHA) and graft versus host disease (GVHD) pathophysiology in stem cell transplant (SCT) donor-recipient pairs (DRP) is not established. In order to elucidate this relationship, whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed on 27 HLA matched related (MRD), & 50 unrelated donors (URD), to identify nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). An average 2,463 SNPs were identified in MRD, and 4,287 in URD DRP (p<0.01); resulting peptide antigens that may be presented on HLA class I molecules in each DRP were derived in silico (NetMHCpan ver2.0) and the tissue expression of proteins these were derived from determined (GTex). MRD DRP had an average 3,670 HLA-binding-alloreactive peptides, putative mHA (pmHA) with an IC50 of <500 nM, and URD, had 5,386 (p<0.01). To simulate an alloreactive donor cytotoxic T cell response, the array of pmHA in each patient was considered as an operator matrix modifying a hypothetical cytotoxic T cell clonal vector matrix; each responding T cell clone's proliferation was determined by the logistic equation of growth, accounting for HLA binding affinity and tissue expression of each alloreactive peptide. The resulting simulated organ-specific alloreactive T cell clonal growth revealed marked variability, with the T cell count differences spanning orders of magnitude between different DRP. Despite an estimated, uniform set of constants used in the model for all DRP, and a heterogeneously treated group of patients, higher total and organ-specific T cell counts were associated with cumulative incidence of moderate to severe GVHD in recipients. In conclusion, exome wide sequence differences and the variable alloreactive peptide binding to HLA in each DRP yields a large range of possible alloreactive donor T cell responses. Our findings also help understand the apparent randomness observed in the development of alloimmune responses.

In silico Derivation of HLA-Specific Alloreactivity Potential from Whole Exome Sequencing of Stem-Cell Transplant Donors and Recipients: Understanding the Quantitative Immunobiology of Allogeneic Transplantation.

Donor T-cell mediated graft versus host (GVH) effects may result from the aggregate alloreactivity to minor histocompatibility antigens (mHA) presented by the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecules in each donor-recipient pair undergoing stem-cell transplantation (SCT). Whole exome sequencing has previously demonstrated a large number of non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) present in HLA-matched recipients of SCT donors (GVH direction). The nucleotide sequence flanking each of these SNPs was obtained and the amino acid sequence determined. All the possible nonameric peptides incorporating the variant amino acid resulting from these SNPs were interrogated in silico for their likelihood to be presented by the HLA class I molecules using the Immune Epitope Database stabilized matrix method (SMM) and NetMHCpan algorithms. The SMM algorithm predicted that a median of 18,396 peptides weakly bound HLA class I molecules in individual SCT recipients, and 2,254 peptides displayed strong binding. A similar library of presented peptides was identified when the data were interrogated using the NetMHCpan algorithm. The bioinformatic algorithm presented here demonstrates that there may be a high level of mHA variation in HLA-matched individuals, constituting a HLA-specific alloreactivity potential.

Stem cell transplantation as a dynamical system: are clinical outcomes deterministic?

Outcomes in stem cell transplantation (SCT) are modeled using probability theory. However, the clinical course following SCT appears to demonstrate many characteristics of dynamical systems, especially when outcomes are considered in the context of immune reconstitution. Dynamical systems tend to evolve over time according to mathematically determined rules. Characteristically, the future states of the system are predicated on the states preceding them, and there is sensitivity to initial conditions. In SCT, the interaction between donor T cells and the recipient may be considered as such a system in which, graft source, conditioning, and early immunosuppression profoundly influence immune reconstitution over time. This eventually determines clinical outcomes, either the emergence of tolerance or the development of graft versus host disease. In this paper, parallels between SCT and dynamical systems are explored and a conceptual framework for developing mathematical models to understand disparate transplant outcomes is proposed.