Explicit formulae for the peak time of an epidemic from the SIR model. Which approximant to use?

An analytic evaluation of the peak time of a disease allows for the installment of effective epidemic precautions. Recently, an explicit analytic, approximate expression (MT) for the peak time of the fraction of infected persons during an outbreak within the susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) model had been presented and discussed (Turkyilmazoglu, 2021). There are three existing approximate solutions (SK-I, SK-II, and CG) of the semi-time SIR model in its reduced formulation that allow one to come up with different explicit expressions for the peak time of the infected compartment (Schlickeiser and Kröger, 2021; Carvalho and Gonçalves, 2021). Here we compare the four expressions for any choice of SIR model parameters and find that SK-I, SK-II and CG are more accurate than MT as long as the amount of population to which the SIR model is applied exceeds hundred by far (countries, ss, cities). For small populations with less than hundreds of individuals (families, small towns), however, the approximant MT outperforms the other approximants. To be able to compare the various approaches, we clarify the equivalence between the four-parametric dimensional SIR equations and their two-dimensional dimensionless analogue. Using Covid-19 data from various countries and sources we identify the relevant regime within the parameter space of the SIR model.

Acceleration of particles in imbalanced magnetohydrodynamic turbulence.

The present work investigates the acceleration of test particles, relevant to the solar-wind problem, in balanced and imbalanced magnetohydrodynamic turbulence (terms referring here to turbulent states possessing zero and nonzero cross helicity, respectively). These turbulent states, obtained numerically by prescribing the injection rates for the ideal invariants, are evolved dynamically with the particles. While the energy spectrum for balanced and imbalanced states is known, the impact made on particle heating is a matter of debate, with different considerations giving different results. By performing direct numerical simulations, resonant and nonresonant particle accelerations are automatically considered and the correct turbulent phases are taken into account. For imbalanced turbulence, it is found that the acceleration rate of charged particles is reduced and the heating rate diminished. This behavior is independent of the particle gyroradius, although particles that have a stronger adiabatic motion (smaller gyroradius) tend to experience a larger heating.