Understanding the co-construction of safety in the paediatric intensive care unit: A meta-ethnography of parents' experiences.

BACKGROUND: Children experiencing critical illness or injury may require admission to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) to receive life-sustaining or life-saving treatment. Studies have explored the experience of parents with a child in PICU but tend to focus on subgroups of children or specific healthcare systems. Therefore, we aimed to undertake a meta-ethnography to draw together the published research. METHODS: A systematic search strategy was developed to identify qualitative studies, which had explored the experiences of parents with a critically ill child treated in a PICU. A meta-ethnography was undertaken following the structured steps of identifying the topic; undertaking a systematic search; reading the research; determining how the studies relate and translate into each other; and synthesising and expressing the results. RESULTS: We identified 2989 articles from our search and after a systematic series of exclusions, 15 papers remaining for inclusion. We explored the original parent voices (first order) and the interpretation of the study authors (second order) to identify three third-order concepts (our interpretation of the findings), which related to technical, relational and temporal factors. These factors influenced parents' experiences, providing both barriers and facilitators to how parents and caregivers experienced the time their child was in the PICU. The dynamic and co-constructed nature of safety provided an analytical overarching frame of reference. CONCLUSION: This synthesis demonstrates novel ways in which parents and caregivers can contribute to the vital role of ensuring a co-created safe healthcare environment for their child when receiving life-saving care within the PICU.

Creating a home with a critically ill child: A qualitative study exploring the experiences of parents of children admitted to paediatric critical care following treatment in neonatal care.

BACKGROUND: Survival of children with complex medical conditions has increased over time. Around 5% of children admitted to a neonatal unit (NNU) later have an admission to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) in early life. No work to date has explored the needs of parents who have a child admitted to both of these healthcare settings. OBJECTIVE: The overall aim of this study was to understand parents' experiences as they navigate the transition between admissions to the NNU and the PICU. This paper reports on one of the themes (creating a home) identified inductively from the dataset. METHODS: We used a qualitative research design using semistructured interviews with parents who had a child (or children) who had been admitted to neonatal care after birth and then subsequently were also admitted to a PICU. We recruited a national purposive sample of parents with experiences of having a child treated in an NNU before being admitted to the PICU. We undertook the interviews and transcribed them before taking a reflexive thematic analysis approach. RESULTS: A total of 15 mothers and three fathers, of 17 children, were interviewed between January and March 2022. 'We identified 'creating a home' as a key inductive theme with three subthemes: (i) developing parental roles; (ii) creating a physical home; and (iii) creating core memories. CONCLUSIONS: There is a growing cohort of children living with chronic health conditions. In this work, we have explored how their parents establish a home whilst often spending significant periods within the public arena of intensive care. Families across settings need support from healthcare professionals to help them develop their role as parents, build a home, and to create memories together.

Children born preterm admitted to paediatric intensive care for bronchiolitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To undertake a systematic review of studies describing the proportion of children admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and/or bronchiolitis who were born preterm, and compare their outcomes in PICU with children born at term. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Scopus. Citations and references of included articles were searched. We included studies published from the year 2000 onwards, from high-income countries, that examined children 0-18 years of age, admitted to PICU from the year 2000 onwards for RSV and/or bronchiolitis. The primary outcome was the percentage of PICU admissions born preterm, and secondary outcomes were observed relative risks of invasive mechanical ventilation and mortality within PICU. We used the Joanna Briggs Institute Checklist for Analytical Cross-Sectional Studies to assess risk of bias. RESULTS: We included 31 studies, from 16 countries, including a total of 18,331 children. Following meta-analysis, the pooled estimate for percentage of PICU admissions for RSV/bronchiolitis who were born preterm was 31% (95% confidence interval: 27% to 35%). Children born preterm had a greater risk of requiring invasive ventilation compared to children born at term (relative risk 1.57, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 1.97, I2 = 38%). However, we did not observe a significant increase in the relative risk for mortality within PICU for preterm-born children (relative risk 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.70 to 1.72, I2 = 0%), although the mortality rate was low across both groups. The majority of studies (n = 26, 84%) were at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Among PICU admissions for bronchiolitis, preterm-born children are over-represented compared with the preterm birth rate (preterm birth rate 4.4% to 14.4% across countries included in review). Preterm-born children are at higher risk of mechanical ventilation compared to those born at term.

Impact of prematurity on long-stay paediatric intensive care unit admissions in England 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: Survival following extreme preterm birth has improved, potentially increasing the number of children with ongoing morbidity requiring intensive care in childhood. Previous single-centre studies have suggested that long-stay admissions in paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) are increasing. We aimed to examine trends in long-stay admissions (≥28 days) to PICUs in England, outcomes for this group (including mortality and PICU readmission), and to determine the contribution of preterm-born children to the long-stay population, in children aged <2 years. METHODS: Data was obtained from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) for all children <2 years admitted to National Health Service PICUs from 1/1/2008 to 31/12/2018 in England. We performed descriptive analysis of child characteristics and PICU outcomes. RESULTS: There were 99,057 admissions from 67,615 children. 2,693 children (4.0%) had 3,127 long-stays. Between 2008 and 2018 the annual number of long-stay admissions increased from 225 (2.7%) to 355 (4.0%), and the proportion of bed days in PICUs occupied by long-stay admissions increased from 24.2% to 33.2%. Of children with long-stays, 33.5% were born preterm, 53.5% were born at term, and 13.1% had missing data for gestational age. A considerable proportion of long-stay children required PICU readmission before two years of age (76.3% for preterm-born children). Observed mortality during any admission was also disproportionately greater for long-stay children (26.5% for term-born, 24.8% for preterm-born) than the overall rate (6.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Long-stays accounted for an increasing proportion of PICU activity in England between 2008 and 2018. Children born preterm were over-represented in the long-stay population compared to the national preterm birth rate (8%). These results have significant implications for future research into paediatric morbidity, and for planning future PICU service provision.

A qualitative study exploring risk perception in congenital cardiac surgery: the perspective of UK surgeons.

INTRODUCTION: Managing risk is central to clinical care, yet most research focuses on patient perception, as opposed to how risk is enacted within the clinical setting by healthcare professionals. AIM: To explore how surgical risk is perceived, encountered, and managed by congenital cardiac surgeons. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 congenital cardiac surgeons representing every unit across England and Wales. All interviews were transcribed verbatim, with analysis based on the constant comparative approach. FINDINGS: Three themes were identified, reflecting the interactions between personal, institutional, and political context in which risk is encountered and managed. First, "communicating risk" highlights the complexity and variability in methods employed by surgeons to balance legal/moral obligations with parental need and expectations. Universally, surgeons described the need for flexibility in their approach in order to meet the needs of individual patients. Second, "scrutiny and accountability" captures the spectrum of opinion arising from the binary nature of the outcomes collated and the way in which they are perceived to be interpreted. Third, "nature of the job" highlights the personal and professional implications of conveying and managing risk and the impact of recent policy changes on the way this is enacted. CONCLUSION: Variations in approaches to communicating risk demonstrate a lack of consensus, compounded by insufficient evidence to determine or monitor a "best-care" approach. With current surgical outcomes suggesting little room for increasing survival rates, future care needs should shift to the "soft skills" in order to continue to drive improvements in parental and patient experience.

Variations in Neonatal Length of Stay of Babies Born Extremely Preterm: An International Comparison Between iNeo Networks.

OBJECTIVE: To compare length of stay (LOS) in neonatal care for babies born extremely preterm admitted to networks participating in the International Network for Evaluating Outcomes of Neonates (iNeo). STUDY DESIGN: Data were extracted for babies admitted from 2014 to 2016 and born at 24 to 28 weeks of gestational age (n = 28 204). Median LOS was calculated for each network for babies who survived and those who died while in neonatal care. A linear regression model was used to investigate differences in LOS between networks after adjusting for gestational age, birth weight z score, sex, and multiplicity. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for babies who were discharged home directly. RESULTS: Observed median LOS for babies who survived was longest in Japan (107 days); this result persisted after adjustment (20.7 days more than reference, 95% CI 19.3-22.1). Finland had the shortest adjusted LOS (-4.8 days less than reference, 95% CI -7.3 to -2.3). For each week's increase in gestational age at birth, LOS decreased by 12.1 days (95% CI -12.3 to -11.9). Multiplicity and male sex predicted mean increases in LOS of 2.6 (95% CI 2.0-3.2) and 2.1 (95% CI 1.6-2.6) days, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We identified between-network differences in LOS of up to 3 weeks for babies born extremely preterm. Some of these may be partly explained by differences in mortality, but unexplained variations also may be related to differences in clinical care practices and healthcare systems between countries.

The effect of care provided by paediatric critical care transport teams on mortality of children transported to paediatric intensive care units in England and Wales: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Centralisation of paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) has the increased the need for specialist paediatric critical care transport teams (PCCT) to transport critically ill children to PICU. We investigated the impact of care provided by PCCTs for children on mortality and other clinically important outcomes. METHODS: We analysed linked national data from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) from children admitted to PICUs in England and Wales (2014-2016) to assess the impact of who led the child's transport, whether prolonged stabilisation by the PCCT was detrimental and the impact of critical incidents during transport on patient outcome. We used logistic regression models to estimate the adjusted odds and probability of mortality within 30 days of admission to PICU (primary outcome) and negative binomial models to investigate length of stay (LOS) and length of invasive ventilation (LOV). RESULTS: The study included 9112 children transported to PICU. The most common diagnosis was respiratory problems; junior doctors led the PCCT in just over half of all transports; and the 30-day mortality was 7.1%. Transports led by Advanced Nurse Practitioners and Junior Doctors had similar outcomes (adjusted mortality ANP: 0.035 versus Junior Doctor: 0.038). Prolonged stabilisation by the PCCT was possibly associated with increased mortality (0.059, 95% CI: 0.040 to 0.079 versus short stabilisation 0.044, 95% CI: 0.039 to 0.048). Critical incidents involving the child increased the adjusted odds of mortality within 30 days (odds ratio: 3.07). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in team composition between PCCTs appear to have little effect on patient outcomes. We believe differences in stabilisation approaches are due to residual confounding. Our finding that critical incidents were associated with worse outcomes indicates that safety during critical care transport is an important area for future quality improvement work.

Does time taken by paediatric critical care transport teams to reach the bedside of critically ill children affect survival? A retrospective cohort study from England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Reaching the bedside of a critically ill child within three hours of agreeing the child requires intensive care is a key target for Paediatric Critical Care Transport teams (PCCTs) to achieve in the United Kingdom. Whilst timely access to specialist care is necessary for these children, it is unknown to what extent time taken for the PCCT to arrive at the bedside affects clinical outcome. METHODS: Data from transports of critically ill children who were admitted to Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) in England and Wales from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 were extracted from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) and linked with adult critical care data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Logistic regression models, adjusted for pre-specified confounders, were fitted to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on mortality within 30 days of admission and other key time points. Negative binomial models were used to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on PICU length of stay and duration of invasive ventilation. RESULTS: There were 9116 children transported during the study period, and 645 (7.1%) died within 30 days of PICU admission. There was no evidence that 30-day mortality changed as time-to-bedside increased. A similar relationship was seen for mortality at other pre-selected time points. In children who waited longer for a team to arrive, there was limited evidence of a small increase in PICU length of stay (expected number of days increased from: 7.17 to 7.58). CONCLUSION: There is no evidence that reducing the time-to-bedside target for PCCTs will improve the survival of critically ill children. A shorter time to bedside may be associated with a small reduction in PICU length of stay.

Infants born late/moderately preterm are at increased risk for a positive autism screen at 2 years of age.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of positive screens using the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT) questionnaire and follow-up interview in late and moderately preterm (LMPT; 32-36 weeks) infants and term-born controls. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study of 1130 LMPT and 1255 term-born infants. Parents completed the M-CHAT questionnaire at 2-years corrected age. Parents of infants with positive questionnaire screens were followed up with a telephone interview to clarify failed items. The M-CHAT questionnaire was re-scored, and infants were classified as true or false positives. Neurosensory, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes were assessed using parent report. RESULTS: Parents of 634 (57%) LMPT and 761 (62%) term-born infants completed the M-CHAT questionnaire. LMPT infants had significantly higher risk of a positive questionnaire screen compared with controls (14.5% vs 9.2%; relative risk [RR] 1.58; 95% CI 1.18, 2.11). After follow-up, significantly more LMPT infants than controls had a true positive screen (2.4% vs 0.5%; RR 4.52; 1.51, 13.56). This remained significant after excluding infants with neurosensory impairments (2.0% vs 0.5%; RR 3.67; 1.19, 11.3). CONCLUSIONS: LMPT infants are at significantly increased risk for positive autistic screen. An M-CHAT follow-up interview is essential as screening for autism spectrum disorders is especially confounded in preterm populations. Infants with false positive screens are at risk for cognitive and behavioral problems.

Paediatric intensive care admissions of preterm children born <32 weeks gestation: a national retrospective cohort study using data linkage.

OBJECTIVE: Survival of babies born very preterm (<32 weeks gestational age) has increased, although preterm-born children may have ongoing morbidity. We aimed to investigate the risk of admission to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) of children born very preterm following discharge home from neonatal care. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, using data linkage of National Neonatal Research Database and the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network datasets. SETTING: All neonatal units and PICUs in England and Wales. PATIENTS: Children born very preterm between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018 and admitted to neonatal units. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Admission to PICU after discharge home from neonatal care, before 2 years of age. RESULTS: Of the 40 690 children discharged home from neonatal care, there were 2308 children (5.7%) with at least one admission to PICU after discharge. Of these children, there were 1901 whose first PICU admission after discharge was unplanned.The percentage of children with unplanned PICU admission varied by gestation, from 10.2% of children born <24 weeks to 3.3% born at 31 weeks.Following adjustment, unplanned PICU admission was associated with lower gestation, male sex (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.79), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (aOR 1.37), necrotising enterocolitis requiring surgery (aOR 1.39) and brain injury (aOR 1.42). For each week of increased gestation, the aOR was 0.90. CONCLUSIONS: Most babies born <32 weeks and discharged home from neonatal care do not require PICU admission in the first 2 years. The odds of unplanned admissions to PICU were greater in the most preterm and those with significant neonatal morbidity.

Contribution of ethnicity, area level deprivation and air pollution to paediatric intensive care unit admissions in the United Kingdom 2008-2021.

Background: There is emerging evidence on the impact of social and environmental determinants of health on paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admissions and outcomes. We analysed UK paediatric intensive care data to explore disparities in the incidence of admission according to a child's ethnicity and the degree of deprivation and pollution in the child's residential area. Methods: Data were extracted on children <16 years admitted to UK PICUs between 1st January 2008 and 31st December 2021 from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) database. Ethnicity was categorised as White, Asian, Black, Mixed or Other. Deprivation was quantified using the 'children in low-income families' measure and outdoor air pollution was characterised using mean annual PM2.5 level at local authority level, both divided into population-weighted quintiles. UK population estimates were used to calculate crude incidence of PICU admission. Incidence rate ratios were calculated using Poisson regression models. Findings: There were 245,099 admissions, of which 60.7% were unplanned. After adjusting for age and sex, Asian and Black children had higher relative incidence of unplanned PICU admission compared to White (IRR 1.29 [95% CI: 1.25-1.33] and 1.50 [95% CI: 1.44-1.56] respectively), but there was no evidence of increased incidence of planned admission. Children living in the most deprived quintile had 1.50 times the incidence of admission in the least deprived quintile (95% CI: 1.46-1.54). There were higher crude admission levels of children living in the most polluted quintile compared to the least (157.8 vs 113.6 admissions per 100,000 child years), but after adjustment for ethnicity, deprivation, age and sex there was no association between pollution and PICU admission (IRR 1.00 [95% CI: 1.00-1.00] per 1 µg/m3 increase). Interpretation: Ethnicity and deprivation impact the incidence of PICU admission. When restricting to unplanned respiratory admissions and ventilated patients only, increasing pollution level was associated with increased incidence of PICU admission. It is essential to act to reduce these observed disparities, further work is needed to understand mechanisms behind these findings and how they relate to outcomes. Funding: There was no direct funding for this project. HM was funded by an NIHR Academic Clinical Fellowship (ACF-2022-18-017).

Characteristics of children requiring admission to neonatal care and paediatric intensive care before the age of 2 years in England and Wales: a data linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the characteristics of children admitted to neonatal units (NNUs) and paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) before the age of 2 years. DESIGN: A data linkage study of routinely collected data. SETTING: National Health Service NNUs and PICUs in England and Wales PATIENTS: Children born from 2013 to 2018. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Admission to PICU before the age of 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 384 747 babies were admitted to an NNU and 4.8% (n=18 343) were also admitted to PICU before the age of 2 years. Approximately half of all children admitted to PICU under the age of 2 years born in the same time window (n=18 343/37 549) had previously been cared for in an NNU.The main reasons for first admission to PICU were cardiac (n=7138) and respiratory conditions (n=5386). Cardiac admissions were primarily from children born at term (n=5146), while respiratory admissions were primarily from children born preterm (<37 weeks' gestational age, n=3550). A third of children admitted to PICU had more than one admission. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare professionals caring for babies and children in NNU and PICU see some of the same children in the first 2 years of life. While some children are following established care pathways (eg, staged cardiac surgery), the small proportion of children needing NNU care subsequently requiring PICU care account for a large proportion of the total PICU population. These differences may affect perceptions of risk for this group of children between NNU and PICU teams.

Transport of critically ill children to paediatric intensive care units in the UK and Ireland: 2013-2022.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the trends and changes in the transport of children to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) between 2013 and 2022. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data. PATIENTS: Children transported for care in a PICU in the UK and Ireland aged<16 years. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 43 058 transports to a PICU involving 36 438 children from 2013 to 2022 with the majority of children requiring only one transport. The number of transports increased from 4131 (2013) to 4792 (2022). Over the study period the percentage of children aged under 1 year who were transported decreased from 50.2% to 45.2% and similarly, the percentage who were invasively ventilated also decreased from 81.1% to 70.2%. Conversely, the use of non-invasive ventilation during transports increased slightly from 4.0% to 7.0%. The percentage of transports where a parent was able to accompany the child increased over time (2013: 66.2% to 2019: 74.9%), although there were reductions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for social distancing (2020: 52.4%). CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated an increased use of specialist paediatric transport services and changes in the PICU population over time. Routine data collection from the transport services provide a means to measure improvements and changes over time in the service provided to critically ill children and young people who need transport to the PICU.

Modelling time to death or discharge in neonatal care: an application of competing risks.

BACKGROUND: Understanding length of stay for babies in neonatal care is vital for planning services and for counselling parents. While previous work has focused on the length of stay of babies who survive to discharge, when investigating resource use within neonatal care, it is important to also incorporate information on those babies who die while in care. We present an analysis using competing risks methodology which allows the simultaneous modelling of babies who die in neonatal care and those who survive to discharge. METHODS: Data were obtained on 2723 babies born at 24-28 weeks gestational age in 2006-10 and admitted to neonatal care. Death and discharge alive are two mutually exclusive events and can be treated as competing risks. A flexible parametric modelling approach was used to analyse these two competing events and obtain estimates of the absolute probabilities of death or discharge. RESULTS: The absolute probabilities of death or discharge are presented in graphical form showing the cause-specific cumulative incidence over time by gender, gestational age and birthweight. The discharge of babies alive generally occurred over a longer time period for babies of lower gestational age and smaller birthweight than for bigger babies. CONCLUSION: This study has presented a useful statistical method for modelling the length of stay where there are significant rates of in-unit mortality. In health care systems that are increasingly focusing on costs and resource planning, it is essential to consider not only length of stay of survivors but also for those patients who die before discharge.

Effect of national guidance on survival for babies born at 22 weeks' gestation in England and Wales: population based cohort study.

Objectives: To explore the effect of changes in national clinical recommendations in 2019 that extended provision of survival focused care to babies born at 22 weeks' gestation in England and Wales. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: England and Wales, comprising routine data for births and hospital records. Participants: Babies alive at the onset of care in labour at 22 weeks+0 days to 22 weeks+6 days and at 23 weeks+0 days to 24 weeks+6 days for comparison purposes between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2021. Main outcome measures: Percentage of babies given survival focused care (active respiratory support after birth), admitted to neonatal care, and surviving to discharge in 2018-19 and 2020-21. Results: For the 1001 babies alive at the onset of labour at 22 weeks' gestation, a threefold increase was noted in: survival focused care provision from 11.3% to 38.4% (risk ratio 3.41 (95% confidence interval 2.61 to 4.45)); admissions to neonatal units from 7.4% to 28.1% (3.77 (2.70 to 5.27)), and survival to discharge from neonatal care from 2.5% to 8.2% (3.29 (1.78 to 6.09)). More babies of lower birth weight and early gestational age received survival focused care in 2020-21 than 2018-19 (46% to 64% at <500g weight; 19% to 31% at 22 weeks+0 days to 22 weeks+3 days). Conclusions: A change in national guidance to recommend a risk based approach was associated with a threefold increase in 22 weeks' gestation babies receiving survival focused care. The number of babies being admitted to neonatal units and those surviving to discharge increased.

Estimated neonatal survival of very preterm births across the care pathway: a UK cohort 2016-2020.

OBJECTIVE: Currently used estimates of survival are nearly 10 years old and relate to only those babies admitted for neonatal care. Due to ongoing improvements in neonatal care, here we update estimates of survival for singleton and multiple births at 22+0 to 31+6 weeks gestational age across the perinatal care pathway by gestational age and birth weight. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data. SETTING: A national cohort from the UK and British Crown Dependencies. PATIENTS: Babies born at 22+0 to 31+6 weeks gestational age from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival to 28 days. RESULTS: Estimates of neonatal survival are provided for babies: (1) alive at the onset of care during the birthing process (n=43 763); (2) babies where survival-focused care was initiated (n=42 004); and (3) babies admitted for neonatal care (n=41 158). We have produced easy-to-use survival charts for singleton and multiple births. Generally, survival increased with increasing gestational age at birth and with increasing birth weight. For all births with a birthweight over 1000 g, survival was 90% or higher at all three stages of care. CONCLUSIONS: Survival estimates are a vital tool to support and supplement clinical judgement within perinatal care. These up-to-date, national estimates of survival to 28 days are provided based on three stages of the perinatal care pathway to support ongoing clinical care. These novel results are a key resource for policy and practice including counselling parents and informing care provision.

The probability of being identified as an outlier with commonly used funnel plot control limits for the standardised mortality ratio.

BACKGROUND: Emphasis is increasingly being placed on the monitoring of clinical outcomes for health care providers. Funnel plots have become an increasingly popular graphical methodology used to identify potential outliers. It is assumed that a provider only displaying expected random variation (i.e. 'in-control') will fall outside a control limit with a known probability. In reality, the discrete count nature of these data, and the differing methods, can lead to true probabilities quite different from the nominal value. This paper investigates the true probability of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). METHODS: The true probabilities of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the SMR were calculated and compared for three commonly used limits: Wald confidence interval; 'exact' confidence interval; probability-based prediction interval. RESULTS: The probability of falling above the upper limit, or below the lower limit, often varied greatly from the nominal value. This was particularly apparent when there were a small number of expected events: for expected events ≤ 50 the median probability of an 'in-control' provider falling above the upper 95% limit was 0.0301 (Wald), 0.0121 ('exact'), 0.0201 (prediction). CONCLUSIONS: It is important to understand the properties and probability of being identified as an outlier by each of these different methods to aid the correct identification of poorly performing health care providers. The limits obtained using probability-based prediction limits have the most intuitive interpretation and their properties can be defined a priori. Funnel plot control limits for the SMR should not be based on confidence intervals.

Using a genetic algorithm to solve a non-linear location allocation problem for specialised children's ambulances in England and Wales.

Since 1997, special paediatric intensive care retrieval teams (PICRTs) based in 11 locations across England and Wales have been used to transport sick children from district general hospitals to one of 24 paediatric intensive care units. We develop a location allocation optimisation framework to help inform decisions on the optimal number of locations for each PICRT, where those locations should be, which local hospital each location serves and how many teams should station each location. Our framework allows for stochastic journey times, differential weights for each journey leg and incorporates queuing theory by considering the time spent waiting for a PICRT to become available. We examine the average waiting time and the average time to bedside under different number of operational PICRT stations, different number of teams per station and different levels of demand. We show that consolidating the teams into fewer stations for higher availability leads to better performance.

Modelling the allocation of paediatric intensive care retrieval teams in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Following centralisation of UK paediatric intensive care units in 1997, specialist paediatric intensive care retrieval teams (PICRTs) were established to transport critically ill children from district general hospitals (DGHs). The current location and catchment area of PICRTs covering England and Wales are based on historical referral patterns. National quality standards specify that PICRTs should reach the patient bedside within 3 hours of accepting a referral. OBJECTIVE: To determine what proportion of demand for PICRT services in England and Wales can be reached within 3 hours and to explore the potential coverage impact of more stringent 'time to bedside' standards. METHODS: We used mathematical location-allocation methods to: (1) determine the optimal allocation of DGHs to current PICRT locations to minimise road journey time and calculated the proportion of demand reachable within 3 hours, 2 hours, 90 min, 75 min and 1 hour and (2) explore the impact of changing the number and location of PICRTs on demand coverage for the different time thresholds. RESULTS: For current (and optimal) location of 11 PICRTs, 98% (98%) of demand is reachable within 3 hours; 86% (91%) within 2 hours; 59% (69%) within 90 min; 33% (39%) within 75 min; and 20% (20%) within 1 hour. Five hospitals were not reachable within 3 hours. For the 3-hour standard, eight optimally located PICRT locations had similar coverage as the current 11 locations. CONCLUSIONS: If new evidence supports reduction in the time to bedside standard, many more hospitals will not be adequately covered. Location-allocation optimisation is a powerful technique for supporting evidence-based service configuration.

Congenital Cardiac Surgery and Parental Perception of Risk: A Quantitative Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Interpretation of risk by parents of children undergoing congenital cardiac surgery is poorly documented. The available evidence highlights a dichotomy where clinicians suggest parents may not grasp the complexity and risk associated with procedures, while some parents suggest risk is unnecessarily overemphasized. AIM: To quantify how risk is perceived by parents. METHODS: One hundred six parents of children undergoing cardiac surgery were recruited and completed a Likert-type scale from 1 (perceived low risk) to 6 (perceived high risk), at 5 points: arrival at preadmission, post discussion with anethetist/surgeon, day of surgery, discharge from intensive care, and at outpatient follow-up. The surgical sample was stratified according to Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery level. ANALYSIS: Data were analyzed using Wilcoxon rank tests for differences in distributions of scores and Krippendorff α to examine the level of agreement. RESULTS: Median parental risk scores varied over time, with no consistent risk scores observed. Maternal scores were consistently higher than paternal scores at every time point (P < .001). Postoperative complications resulted in a persistent rise in risk perception at follow-up (P < .001). Analysis of parental risk scores and objective measures of surgical risk highlighted poor agreement that was particularly marked at the extremes of risk. CONCLUSIONS: Parents perceived higher risk scores than those reported by the clinical team. Mothers reported statistically significantly higher scores than their partners, highlighting potential tensions. In addition, the changing perception of risk over time emphasizes the need for flexible levels of support and information as parents navigate uncertainty.