Semiparametric additive time-varying coefficients model for longitudinal data with censored time origin.

Statistical analysis of longitudinal data often involves modeling treatment effects on clinically relevant longitudinal biomarkers since an initial event (the time origin). In some studies including preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trials, some participants have biomarkers measured starting at the time origin, whereas others have biomarkers measured starting later with the time origin unknown. The semiparametric additive time-varying coefficient model is investigated where the effects of some covariates vary nonparametrically with time while the effects of others remain constant. Weighted profile least squares estimators coupled with kernel smoothing are developed. The method uses the expectation maximization approach to deal with the censored time origin. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and other failure time regression models such as the Cox model can be utilized to estimate the distribution and the conditional distribution of left censored event time related to the censored time origin. Asymptotic properties of the parametric and nonparametric estimators and consistent asymptotic variance estimators are derived. A two-stage estimation procedure for choosing weight is proposed to improve estimation efficiency. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. The simulation results show that the theory and methods work well. The efficiency gain of the two-stage estimation procedure depends on the distribution of the longitudinal error processes. The method is applied to analyze data from the Merck 023/HVTN 502 Step HIV vaccine study.

Application of estimand framework in ICH E9 (R1) to vaccine trials.

Over the past decades, the primary interest in vaccine efficacy or immunogenicity evaluation mostly focuses on the biological effect of immunization in complying with the vaccination schedule in a targeted population. The safety questions, which are essential for vaccines as they are generally given to large healthy populations, need to be clearly defined to reflect the risk assessment of interest. ICH E9 (R1) provides a structured framework to clarify the clinical questions and formulate the treatment effect as an estimand. This paper applies the estimand framework to vaccine clinical trials on common clinical questions regarding efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety.

Pembrolizumab plus Axitinib versus Sunitinib for Advanced Renal-Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The combination of pembrolizumab and axitinib showed antitumor activity in a phase 1b trial involving patients with previously untreated advanced renal-cell carcinoma. Whether pembrolizumab plus axitinib would result in better outcomes than sunitinib in such patients was unclear. METHODS: In an open-label, phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned 861 patients with previously untreated advanced clear-cell renal-cell carcinoma to receive pembrolizumab (200 mg) intravenously once every 3 weeks plus axitinib (5 mg) orally twice daily (432 patients) or sunitinib (50 mg) orally once daily for the first 4 weeks of each 6-week cycle (429 patients). The primary end points were overall survival and progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population. The key secondary end point was the objective response rate. All reported results are from the protocol-specified first interim analysis. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 12.8 months, the estimated percentage of patients who were alive at 12 months was 89.9% in the pembrolizumab-axitinib group and 78.3% in the sunitinib group (hazard ratio for death, 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38 to 0.74; P<0.0001). Median progression-free survival was 15.1 months in the pembrolizumab-axitinib group and 11.1 months in the sunitinib group (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.84; P<0.001). The objective response rate was 59.3% (95% CI, 54.5 to 63.9) in the pembrolizumab-axitinib group and 35.7% (95% CI, 31.1 to 40.4) in the sunitinib group (P<0.001). The benefit of pembrolizumab plus axitinib was observed across the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium risk groups (i.e., favorable, intermediate, and poor risk) and regardless of programmed death ligand 1 expression. Grade 3 or higher adverse events of any cause occurred in 75.8% of patients in the pembrolizumab-axitinib group and in 70.6% in the sunitinib group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with previously untreated advanced renal-cell carcinoma, treatment with pembrolizumab plus axitinib resulted in significantly longer overall survival and progression-free survival, as well as a higher objective response rate, than treatment with sunitinib. (Funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme; KEYNOTE-426 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02853331.).

Analysis of two-phase sampling data with semiparametric additive hazards models.

Under the case-cohort design introduced by Prentice (Biometrica 73:1-11, 1986), the covariate histories are ascertained only for the subjects who experience the event of interest (i.e., the cases) during the follow-up period and for a relatively small random sample from the original cohort (i.e., the subcohort). The case-cohort design has been widely used in clinical and epidemiological studies to assess the effects of covariates on failure times. Most statistical methods developed for the case-cohort design use the proportional hazards model, and few methods allow for time-varying regression coefficients. In addition, most methods disregard data from subjects outside of the subcohort, which can result in inefficient inference. Addressing these issues, this paper proposes an estimation procedure for the semiparametric additive hazards model with case-cohort/two-phase sampling data, allowing the covariates of interest to be missing for cases as well as for non-cases. A more flexible form of the additive model is considered that allows the effects of some covariates to be time varying while specifying the effects of others to be constant. An augmented inverse probability weighted estimation procedure is proposed. The proposed method allows utilizing the auxiliary information that correlates with the phase-two covariates to improve efficiency. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. An extensive simulation study shows that the augmented inverse probability weighted estimation is more efficient than the widely adopted inverse probability weighted complete-case estimation method. The method is applied to analyze data from a preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trial.

Personality Risk Factors and Readiness to Change in Mandated and Voluntary College Students Enrolled in an Alcohol Intervention Program.

This study compared personality risk factors and readiness to change drinking behavior among mandated and volunteer college students. The sample (N = 583) completed three measures of motivation to change and personality risk factors at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months between 2011 and 2012. Linear mixed models were used to determine an association of continuous outcome variable(s) with covariates over time. Participants in the action stage had lower impulsivity scores. Gender was significant, with females showing the highest anxiety and lowest sensation seeking. The findings indicate a number of future directions to advance innovative alcohol intervention and treatment programs on college campuses.

Personality risk for alcohol consequences among college freshmen.

Drinking is pervasive in the lifestyle of many college students. This study investigated the relationship between drinking and students' impulsivity, sensation seeking, alcohol consequences, and expectancies. The study was based on the Acquired Preparedness Model, which posits that personality constructs like impulsivity and sensation seeking influence drinking through the formation of positive expectancies about the effects of drinking. Freshmen (N = 260) from a large public university volunteered for the study and were administered three surveys. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the study variables. The findings showed that the total effect of impulsivity was mediated by positive alcohol expectancies. The total effect of sensation seeking was mediated by alcohol expectancies. Freshmen who were more impulsive and sensation seeking had more positive alcohol expectancies and experienced more negative consequences related to alcohol use. These findings suggest that the risk of alcohol consequences was associated with personality constructs and alcohol expectancies.

A phase 3 randomized, open-label study evaluating the immunogenicity and safety of concomitant and staggered administration of a live, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and an inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine in healthy infants in China.

This open-label, randomized, phase 3 study in China (V260-074; NCT04481191) evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of concomitant and staggered administration of three doses of an oral, live, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) and three doses of an intramuscular, inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine (IPV) in 400 healthy infants. The primary objective was the non-inferiority of neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses in the concomitant- versus the staggered-use groups. Antibody responses were measured at baseline and 1-month post-dose 3 (PD3). Parents/legal guardians recorded adverse events for 30 or 15 d after study vaccinations in the concomitant-use or staggered-use groups, respectively. At PD3, >98% of participants seroconverted to all three poliovirus types, and the primary objective was met as lower bounds of the two-sided 95% CI for between-group difference in nAb seroconversion percentages ranged from - 4.3% to - 1.6%, for all poliovirus types, p < .001. At PD3, geometric mean titers (GMTs) of nAb responses to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 in the concomitant-use group and the staggered-use group were comparable; 100% of participants had nAb titers ≥1:8 and ≥1:64 for all poliovirus types. Anti-rotavirus serotype-specific IgA GMTs and participants with ≥3-fold rise in postvaccination titers from baseline were comparable between groups. Administration of RV5 and IPV was well tolerated with comparable safety profiles in both groups. The immunogenicity of IPV in the concomitant-use group was non-inferior to the staggered-use group and RV5 was immunogenic in both groups. No safety concerns were identified. These data support the concomitant use of RV5 and IPV in healthy Chinese infants.

Safety and immunogenicity of V114, a 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in children with SCD: a V114-023 (PNEU-SICKLE) study.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited red blood cell disease that results in a multitude of medical complications, including an increased risk of invasive disease caused by encapsulated bacteria, such as Streptococcus pneumoniae. Pneumococcal vaccines have contributed to a significant reduction in pneumococcal disease (PD) in children and adults, including those with SCD. This phase 3 study evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of V114, a 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), in children with SCD. A total of 103 children aged 5 to 17 years with SCD were randomized and received a single dose of V114 or Prevnar 13 (PCV13). Safety was evaluated as the proportion of participants with adverse events (AEs). Serotype-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels and opsonophagocytic activity (OPA) were measured immediately before vaccination and 30 days after vaccination. Overall, the rates of injection-site and systemic AEs reported after vaccination were similar between the vaccination groups. Up to 6 months after vaccination, serious AEs were those expected for patients with SCD, and none were assessed to be vaccine related. IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) and OPA geometric mean titers (GMTs) for the 13 shared serotypes were generally comparable between recipients of V114 and PCV13. Additionally, V114 induced immune responses to serotypes 22F and 33F, which are not included in PCV13. The safety and tolerability profiles of V114 were consistent with those reported for PCV13. Immune responses following vaccination with V114 were generally comparable to PCV13 for the shared serotypes and higher for unique serotypes 22F and 33F. These results support the use of V114 in children with SCD. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03731182.

Immunogenicity and safety of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine in Chinese females aged 9 to 26 years: A phase 3, open-label, immunobridging study.

BACKGROUND: The quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV; HPV6/11/16/18) vaccine was approved for use in Chinese women aged 20-45 years in 2017. This Phase 3, open-label study (NCT03493542) aimed to assess immunogenicity and safety of the qHPV vaccine in Chinese girls aged 9-19 years versus Chinese young women aged 20-26 years; we report results from Day 1 through Month 7. The study will continue through Month 60 to assess antibody persistence in Chinese girls aged 9-19 years. METHODS: Participants aged 9-26 years received three doses of the qHPV vaccine (Day 1, Month 2, Month 6). Geometric mean titers (GMTs) and seroconversion percentages for anti-HPV6/11/16/18 antibodies were determined by competitive Luminex immunoassay (cLIA) in serum samples obtained on Day 1 and at Month 7. Injection-site adverse events (AEs) and systemic AEs within 30 days post-vaccination, and serious AEs (SAEs) occurring at any time during the study, were recorded. RESULTS: In total, 766 participants (383 aged 9-19 years; 383 aged 20-26 years) were enrolled and received ≥1 vaccine dose. All participants in the per-protocol immunogenicity population of both age groups seroconverted to each of the vaccine HPV types at Month 7. Anti-HPV6/11/16/18 antibody GMTs at Month 7 in participants aged 9-19 years were non-inferior to those in participants aged 20-26 years. Injection-site AEs and systemic AEs were reported by 36.6% and 49.3% of 9-19-year-olds, and 40.7% and 54.8% of 20-26-year-olds, respectively. There were no vaccine-related SAEs. No participants discontinued the vaccine due to an AE and no deaths were reported. CONCLUSION: Antibody responses induced by the 3-dose qHPV vaccination regimen in Chinese girls aged 9-19 years were non-inferior to those in Chinese young women aged 20-26 years. The vaccine was generally well tolerated in the study population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03493542.

Efficacy of quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine against persistent infection and genital disease in Chinese women: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial with 78-month follow-up.

BACKGROUND: A quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (qHPV; HPV6/11/16/18) has demonstrated efficacy and effectiveness worldwide. We report qHPV vaccine efficacy for up to 6.5 years after first administration among Chinese women 20-45 years of age. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter, Phase 3 study (NCT00834106), women were randomized 1:1 to receive 3 doses of qHPV vaccine or placebo (Day 1, Month 2, Month 6). Endo-ecto-cervical and external genital swabs were collected for HPV testing and gynecologic examinations, and cervical cytology testing were performed at Day 1 and Months 7, 12, 18, 24, 30, 42, 54, 66, and 78. Any abnormality in cytology testing would trigger colposcopy examination and cervical biopsy, if necessary. Efficacy against genital disease, persistent infection, and the composite endpoint was assessed. Primary efficacy analyses were conducted in the per-protocol efficacy (PPE) population. RESULTS: Of 3006 participants randomized, 2759 (91.8%) and 2374 (79%) completed the Month 30 and Month 78 visits, respectively. At Month 78, efficacy among women aged 20-45 years was 100% (95% CI: 32.3, 100; 0 vs 7 cases) and 100% (95% CI: 70.9, 100; 0 vs 14 cases) against HPV16/18-related cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grade 2 or 3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer (CIN 2+) and HPV6/11/16/18-related CIN 1+, respectively, in the PPE population. The efficacy against cervical 6-month and 12-month persistent infection was 91.6% (95% CI: 66.0, 99.0) and 97.5% (95% CI: 85.1, 99.9) at Month 30 and Month 78, respectively, in the PPE population. The vaccine also reduced the rate of cervical cytology abnormalities associated with HPV6/11/16/18, with an efficacy of 94.0% (95% CI: 81.5, 98.8). The vaccine was generally well tolerated (reported separately). CONCLUSION: The qHPV vaccine is efficacious against endpoints of persistent infection and genital precancerous lesions in Chinese women aged 20-45 years.

Immunogenicity of pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in Chinese infants.

BACKGROUND: A phase III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical study was conducted in China to assess the efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RotaTeqTM, RV5) among Chinese infants. The efficacy and safety data have been previously reported. This report presents the immunogenicity data of the study. METHODS: 4,040 infants aged 6-12 weeks were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive 3 oral doses of RV5 or placebo. Trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) and diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP) were administered in a staggered-use (N = 3,240) or concomitant-use (N = 800) schedule. Immunogenicity of RV5 was evaluated in 800 participants (400 participants from each staggered- and concomitant-use immunogenicity subgroup). Geometric mean titers (GMTs) and seroresponse rates (≥3-fold rise from baseline to PD3) were measured for anti-rotavirus IgA in the staggered- and concomitant-use subgroups and measured for serum neutralizing antibodies (SNAs) to human rotavirus serotypes G1, G2, G3, G4, P1A[8] in the staggered-use subgroup. Immune responses to tOPV and DTaP co-administered with RV5 were also evaluated in the concomitant-use immunogenicity subgroup. (ClinicalTrials.gov registry: NCT02062385) RESULTS: The PD3 GMT and seroresponse rate of anti-rotavirus IgA were higher in the RV5 group (82.42 units/mL, 89.4%) compared to the placebo group (0.33 units/mL, 10.1%). Rotavirus type-specific SNA responses were also higher in the RV5 group compared to the placebo group. In the concomitant-use subgroup, the seroprotection rates of anti-poliovirus type 1, 2, 3 in the participants who received RV5 were non-inferior to those who received placebo, and the antibody responses to DTaP antigens were comparable between the two vaccination groups. CONCLUSIONS: RV5 was immunogenic in Chinese infants. Immune responses induced by tOPV and DTaP were not affected by the concomitant use of RV5.

Safety of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine in a Phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial among Chinese women during 90 months of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: A quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV) vaccine (HPV6/11/16/18) has demonstrated efficacy and acceptable safety in international studies. However, these studies did not include participants from mainland China, which has a substantial burden of HPV-related disease. This is the first safety report with a follow-up period of up to 90 months from a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of qHPV vaccine in Chinese women 20-45 years of age. METHODS: Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive three doses of qHPV vaccine or placebo (Day1, Month 2, and Month 6). Efficacy outcomes are reported elsewhere. Injection-site and systemic adverse events (AEs) were collected using vaccination report cards (VRCs) for 15 days following each vaccination. Serious AEs (SAEs), pregnancy outcomes, new medical conditions, and fetal/infant SAEs were collected during the entire study. RESULTS: Of 3006 participants randomized, AEs were reported by 926 (61.8%) qHPV vaccine recipients and 856 (57.1%) placebo recipients over the entire study. Four participants (two in each group) discontinued the study vaccination due to AEs that were considered vaccination-related. Within 15 days following any vaccination, injection-site AEs prompted for on the VRC were more frequent among qHPV vaccine recipients (37.6% vs 27.8%), and systemic AEs prompted for on the VRC were similar in frequency between qHPV vaccine and placebo groups (46.8% vs 45.1%). Thirty-eight and 43 participants reported SAEs in qHPV vaccine and placebo groups, respectively. No SAE was considered qHPV vaccine-related. Pregnancy outcomes, fetal/infant SAEs, and new medical conditions were generally similar in frequency between the qHPV vaccine and placebo groups, and within normal ranges. CONCLUSION: The qHPV vaccine was well tolerated and demonstrated a favorable safety profile in Chinese women 20-45 years of age, consistent with findings from global trials and safety surveillance studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov; NCT00834106.

Evaluation on the persistence of anti-HPV immune responses to the quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Chinese females and males: Up to 3.5 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: This was an extension study of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled immunogenicity and safety study of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV) (HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18) vaccine conducted in Chinese female subjects aged 9-45 years and male subjects aged 9-15 years. To investigate the persistence of anti-HPV 6, -11, -16, and -18 responses among Chinese subjects, subjects enrolled in the base study were followed up at around month 42 (approximately 3.5 years after vaccination). METHODS: Among 600 subjects enrolled in the base study, a total of 468 subjects consented for participation in the extension study. Anti-HPV 6, -11, -16, and -18 antibodies were detected by the competitive Luminex immunoassay (cLIA) and total IgG Luminex immunoassay (IgG LIA). RESULTS: Among the female subjects who received the qHPV vaccine, the proportions of subjects remained seropositive were high with both the cLIA and IgG LIA for HPV type 6, 11, and 16 through approximately 42 months following the first dose vaccination. For HPV 18, the seropositivity rate remained high as 82.0% with the IgG LIA, while it decreased to 53.6% with the cLIA, which was similar to the findings observed in other studies. The seropositivity rates remained high at month 42 for all qHPV types with both the cLIA and IgG LIA among the male subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of a 3-dose regimen of qHPV vaccine induces durable anti-HPV 6, anti-HPV 11, anti-HPV 16, and anti-HPV 18 responses among Chinese subjects for at least 3.5 years after vaccination. ClinicalTrials.gov registry:NCT01427777.

A Bayesian prediction model between a biomarker and the clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables.

BACKGROUND: Early biomarkers are helpful for predicting clinical endpoints and for evaluating efficacy in clinical trials even if the biomarker cannot replace clinical outcome as a surrogate. The building and evaluation of an association model between biomarkers and clinical outcomes are two equally important concerns regarding the prediction of clinical outcome. This paper is to address both issues in a Bayesian framework. METHODS: A Bayesian meta-analytic approach is proposed to build a prediction model between the biomarker and clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables. Compared with other Bayesian methods, the proposed model only requires trial-level summary data of historical trials in model building. By using extensive simulations, we evaluate the link function and the application condition of the proposed Bayesian model under scenario (i) equal positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) and (ii) higher NPV and lower PPV. In the simulations, the patient-level data is generated to evaluate the meta-analytic model. PPV and NPV are employed to describe the patient-level relationship between the biomarker and the clinical outcome. The minimum number of historical trials to be included in building the model is also considered. RESULTS: It is seen from the simulations that the logit link function performs better than the odds and cloglog functions under both scenarios. PPV/NPV ≥0.5 for equal PPV and NPV, and PPV + NPV ≥1 for higher NPV and lower PPV are proposed in order to predict clinical outcome accurately and precisely when the proposed model is considered. Twenty historical trials are required to be included in model building when PPV and NPV are equal. For unequal PPV and NPV, the minimum number of historical trials for model building is proposed to be five. A hypothetical example shows an application of the proposed model in global drug development. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed Bayesian model is able to predict well the clinical endpoint from the observed biomarker data for dichotomous variables as long as the conditions are satisfied. It could be applied in drug development. But the practical problems in applications have to be studied in further research.

Long-term study of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine.

BACKGROUND: We present a long-term safety, immunogenicity, and effectiveness study of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccine. METHODS: Sexually naive boys and girls aged 9 to 15 years (N = 1781) were assigned (2:1) to receive HPV4 vaccine or saline placebo at day 1 and months 2 and 6. At month 30, the placebo group (n = 482) received HPV4 vaccine following the same regimen and both cohorts were followed through month 96. Subjects ≥ 16 years were eligible for effectiveness evaluations. The primary objective was to evaluate the long-term anti-HPV6/11/16/18 serological levels. The secondary objective was to estimate vaccine effectiveness against HPV6/11/16/18-related persistent infection or disease. RESULTS: For each of the HPV4 vaccine types, vaccination-induced anti-HPV response persisted through month 96. Among 429 subjects who received HPV4 vaccine at a mean age of 12, none developed HPV6/11/16/18-related disease or persistent infection of ≥ 12 months' duration. Acquisition of new sexual partners (among those ≥ 16 years) was ∼1 per year. Subjects receiving HPV4 vaccine at month 30 (mean age 15 years) had a similar baseline rate of seropositivity to ≥ 1 of the 4 HPV types to those vaccinated at day 1 (mean age 12 years; 1.9% [9 of 474] vs 1.7% [20 of 1157]); however, 4 of the 9 subjects vaccinated at the later age were seropositive to 3 vaccine types, indicating previous HPV exposure. No new significant serious adverse events were observed for 8 years postvaccination in both genders. CONCLUSIONS: When administered to adolescents, the HPV4 vaccine demonstrated durability in clinically effective protection and sustained antibody titers over 8 years.