Increased hypermutation at G and C nucleotides in immunoglobulin variable genes from mice deficient in the MSH2 mismatch repair protein.

Rearranged immunoglobulin variable genes are extensively mutated after stimulation of B lymphocytes by antigen. Mutations are likely generated by an error-prone DNA polymerase, and the mismatch repair pathway may process the mispairs. To examine the role of the MSH2 mismatch repair protein in hypermutation, Msh2-/- mice were immunized with oxazolone, and B cells were analyzed for mutation in their VkappaOx1 light chain genes. The frequency of mutation in the repair-deficient mice was similar to that in Msh2+/+ mice, showing that MSH2-dependent mismatch repair does not cause hypermutation. However, there was a striking bias for mutations to occur at germline G and C nucleotides. The results suggest that the hypermutation pathway frequently mutates G.C pairs, and a MSH2-dependent pathway preferentially corrects mismatches at G and C.

Formaldehyde and cancer risk: a quantitative review of cohort studies through 2006.

BACKGROUND: Occupational exposure to formaldehyde has been associated with excess risk of nasopharyngeal and selected other cancers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed and pooled the results of cohort studies published through February 2007. RESULTS: There were 5651 deaths from all cancers observed in six cohorts of industry workers and six of professionals, with a pooled relative risk (RR) of 0.95 for industry workers and of 0.87 for professionals. Nine deaths from nasopharyngeal cancer in three cohorts of industry workers yielded a pooled RR of 1.33, which declined to 0.49 after excluding six cases from one US plant. The pooled RR for lung cancer was 1.06 in industry workers and 0.63 in professionals. Corresponding values were 1.09 and 0.96 for oral and pharyngeal, 0.92 and 1.56 for brain, 0.85 and 1.31 for all lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers, and 0.90 and 1.39 for leukemia. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive review of cancer in industry workers and professionals exposed to formaldehyde shows no appreciable excess risk for oral and pharyngeal, sinonasal or lung cancers. A non-significantly increased RR for nasopharyngeal cancer among industry workers is attributable to a cluster of deaths in a single plant. For brain cancer and lymphohematopoietic neoplasms there were modestly elevated risks in professionals, but not industry workers.

Carrier detection in xeroderma pigmentosum.

We were able to detect clinically normal carriers of xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) genes with coded samples of either peripheral blood lymphocytes or skin fibroblasts, using a cytogenetic assay shown previously to detect individuals with cancer-prone genetic disorders. Metaphase cells of phytohemagglutinin-stimulated T-lymphocytes from eight individuals who are obligate heterozygotes for XP were compared with those from nine normal controls at 1.3, 2.3, and 3.3 h after x-irradiation (58 R) during the G2 phase of the cell cycle. Lymphocytes from the XP heterozygotes had twofold higher frequencies of chromatid breaks or chromatid gaps than normal (P less than 10(-5)) when fixed at 2.3 or 3.3 h after irradiation. Lymphocytes from six XP homozygotes had frequencies of breaks and gaps threefold higher than normal. Skin fibroblasts from an additional obligate XP heterozygote, when fixed approximately 2 h after x-irradiation (68 R), had a twofold higher frequency of chromatid breaks and a fourfold higher frequency of gaps than fibroblasts from a normal control. This frequency of aberrations in cells from the XP heterozygote was approximately half that observed in the XP homozygote. The elevated frequencies of chromatid breaks and gaps after G2 phase x-irradiation may provide the basis of a test for identifying carriers of the XP gene(s) within known XP families.

Retinoid protection against x-ray-induced chromatid damage in human peripheral blood lymphocytes.

Oral administration of isotretinoin (13-cis retinoic acid) was shown previously (Kraemer, K. H., J. J. DiGiovanna, A. N. Moshell, R. E. Tarone, and G. L. Peck. 1988. N. Engl. J. Med. 318:1633-1637) to reduce the frequency of skin cancers in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) patients. The mechanism of protection was unclear. In the present study, x-ray-induced chromatid damage in PHA-stimulated blood lymphocytes from five XP patients receiving isotretinoin was approximately half that in blood samples from the same patients before or subsequent to treatment. The x-ray-induced chromatid damage in blood lymphocytes from a normal control was reduced significantly by cocultivation with blood or plasma from an XP patient receiving isotretinoin or by addition of 10(-6) M isotretinoin to cultures 1 h before x-irradiation. A similar reduction in x-ray-induced chromatid damage was reported previously by adding to the culture medium, mannitol, a scavenger of the free hydroxyl radical, or catalase, which decomposes hydrogen peroxide; both of these products are generated during ionizing radiation. The present observations suggest that isotretinoin acts as a scavenger of such radiation products, thereby providing protection against x-ray-induced chromatid damage.

Implications of birth cohort patterns in interpreting trends in breast cancer rates.

BACKGROUND: Most investigations of trends in cancer rates are based on a cross-sectional approach, i.e., an examination of trends in rates by year of diagnosis or death. When there are longitudinal effects (i.e., trends in rates with successive birth cohorts), interpretation of cross-sectional trends can be misleading. Based on cross-sectional comparisons, U.S. breast cancer mortality rates have been reported to be decreasing over the last 20 years in younger women but to be increasing during the same period in older women. PURPOSE: To examine the impact of longitudinal effects on the divergence of cross-sectional trends in breast cancer mortality with age, we examined breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 1988 by birth cohort for White women in the United States. METHODS: By using a novel, nonparametric, permutational method to analyze 2-year, age-specific mortality rates for women aged 30-89 years, we identified trends in rates with successive birth cohorts. RESULTS: The divergence in trends with age is shown to be consistent with an increase in breast cancer risk with successive birth cohorts from 1900 to 1916 and with a decrease in breast cancer risk with successive birth cohorts beginning around 1926. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal effects have a significant impact on cross-sectional trends in breast cancer mortality. IMPLICATIONS: Continuation of the birth cohort trend in younger women, which could correspond to changes in reproductive patterns accompanying the "baby boom," would result in decreasing cross-sectional trends in women 60-69 years of age over the next decade and in women 70-79 years of age in the subsequent decade. Longitudinal effects must be taken into consideration when monitoring and evaluating the effects of early detection, treatment, and intervention programs using national rates.

Variability in the rates of some common naturally occurring tumors in Fischer 344 rats and (C57BL/6N x C3H/HeN)F1 (B6C3F1) mice.

Variability inthe incidence rates of some common naturally occurring tumors for 72 inbred F344 rat and 54 (C57BL/6N x C3H/HeN)F1 (B6C3F1) mouse control groups used in carcinogenesis bioassays was evaluated. Significant heterogeneity of control rates was observed in at least two of six laboratories for lymphomas-leukemias, liver tumors, and pituitary tumors in the male rat and for pituitary tumors and endometrial stromal polyps in the female rat. Significant interlaboratory heterogeneity was observed for several tumor types in the F344 rat. In contrast, control incidence rates for tumors of the lung and liver and lymphomas-leukemias in B6C3F1 mice were relatively homogeneous within four of five laboratories. Significant interlaboratory heterogeneity was observed, however, for these mouse tumors. The causes of significant heterogeneity in naturally occurring tumor incidence rates within and among laboratories are unknown. Although the most appropriate and important comparison of an experimental group is with its matched control, there may be instances in which the historical control rates provide relevant data needed to clearly interpret carcinogenesis bioassay results. With the use of data from bioassays of 4-chloro-m-phenylenediamine and nitrilotriacetic acid, two examples are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the historical control data.

Statistical issues in interpretation of chronic bioassay tests for carcinogenicity.

The interpretation of chronic bioassay tests for carcinogenicity requires that the data be appropriately recorded. A "case history" for each animal links the pathology data for each organ of each animal to the length of its life. This information can be used in interpretation of the tumor incidences in light of the survival information. The role of historical controls was discussed, and the use of significance tests in a multidisciplinary approach to the assessment of the pattern of tumor response was suggested. Multiple comparison methods valid for the interpretation of continuous (or measurement) data do not apply to the discrete data analyses used in these studies. The ideas and methods of these studies were applied to an animal study of chloroform.

Birth cohort and calendar period trends in breast cancer mortality in the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of regional and temporal variation in U.S. breast cancer mortality rates have been confined largely to analyses of rates for white women. PURPOSE: Breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 through 1992 for white women and black women in four regions of the United States and for all women throughout Canada were compared to identify racial, regional, and temporal differences. Differences and trends in the rates were evaluated in view of breast cancer risk factors and relevant medical interventions. METHODS: Age-period-cohort models were fit to the data, and changes in birth cohort trends (suggesting a change in a breast cancer risk factor or protective factor) and calendar period trends (suggesting, in part, the impact of new or improved medical interventions) were examined. RESULTS: Breast cancer mortality rates for white women were significantly higher in the Northeast than in any other region of the United States (two-sided t tests; P<.005); the rates for black women were not. Birth cohort trends for all women were similar until about 1940, with a moderation of mortality risk beginning around 1924. A marked moderation of risk by 4-year birth cohorts was observed for U.S. white women born after 1950, whereas stable or slightly decreasing trends were observed for U.S. black women and Canadian women. For women born from 1924 to around 1938, fertility rates increased for all three groups; after 1950, they declined uniformly. Looking at temporal effects, we found that the slope of the mortality calendar period trend increased in the 1980s compared with the 1970s for all women. In the last calendar period, 1991-1992, a trend of decreasing mortality rates was found for white women in the United States and for Canadian women. IMPLICATIONS: Widespread environmental exposures are unlikely to explain the higher relative breast cancer mortality rates observed for U.S. white women in the Northeast, since the rates for black women in this region were not higher than in other regions. The moderation of breast cancer mortality rates for women born between 1924 and 1938 coincides with increased fertility rates following World War II. Stable or decreasing mortality rates for U.S. women and Canadian women born after 1950 were not expected in view of declining fertility rates, suggesting a change in a breast cancer risk factor or protective factor. The increase in calendar period trend slope in the 1980s likely reflects the coincident rise in breast cancer diagnosis via mammography. The recent decline in calendar period trend for white women in the United States and for Canadian women may be the result of earlier detection and increased use of adjuvant therapy.

Recent trends in lung cancer mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Previous age-period-cohort analyses of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in the United States have demonstrated a decrease in risk by birth cohort through 1950, consistent with declining trends in smoking prevalence. This study was conducted to examine recent lung cancer trends, including trends among the cohorts born after 1950. METHODS: Lung cancer mortality rates from 1970 through 1997 for whites aged 24--83 years and for blacks aged 30--83 years were investigated. Using age--period--cohort analyses with 2-year age and 2-year calendar-period intervals, we examined changes in the slope of the trends in birth-cohort and calendar-period effects. All statistical tests are two-sided. RESULTS: There was an unexpected, statistically significant moderation in the rate of decrease of the birth-cohort trend in lung cancer mortality for whites born after 1950, with a corresponding smaller and statistically nonsignificant moderation for blacks. These data are consistent with smoking initiation rates: Rates of both cigarette and marijuana smoking initiation increased for children aged 12--17 years from 1965 through 1977. There was a statistically significant decrease in the slope of the calendar-period trend for lung cancer mortality in 1990 for both whites and blacks that was observed primarily in people 55 years of age and older. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The birth-cohort pattern of lung cancer mortality after 1950 appears to reflect the early impact of teenage cigarette smoking on lung cancer risk in people under the age of 45 years, although a contribution from marijuana smoking cannot be ruled out. This result provides additional support for increasing smoking cessation and prevention programs for teenagers. The calendar-period decrease in lung cancer mortality after 1990 may reflect the long-term benefits of reductions in tobacco carcinogens in cigarettes and increases in smoking cessation beginning around 1960.

Analysis of breast cancer mortality and stage distribution by age for the Health Insurance Plan clinical trial.

The Health Insurance Plan (HIP) of Greater New York conducted a clinical trial to determine if screening for breast cancer with mammography and clinical examination would decrease breast cancer mortality. The extent of disease at diagnosis among breast cancers detected by screening and the effect of screening on breast cancer mortality have been evaluated in the cohort of all HIP women diagnosed with breast cancer within 6 years of entry into the trial and followed at least 18 years after trial entry. Six years was the earliest time at which the number of cases diagnosed in the control group was equal to the number of cases diagnosed in the study group. In the cohorts of women 40-49 and 50-64 years of age at entry, shifts were significant to lower stages for screen-detected cases. As a result, the study group women in each age cohort had significantly lower breast cancer mortality than control group women when statistical analyses were restricted to data from cases only. In the 40-49 age-at-entry cohort, the reduced breast cancer mortality in the study group appears to result from lower mortality in stage I cases as well as from earlier case detection, and this may explain differences between the two age-at-entry cohorts in the length of follow-up time required to demonstrate a mortality reduction due to screening.

Alternate ranging methods for cancer mortality maps.

BACKGROUND: Mapping techniques can highlight the spatial or temporal variations in rates of cancer mortality. In mapping geographic patterns of cancer mortality, spatial units are grouped into categories defined by specified rate ranges, and then the units in each category are assigned a particular color in the map. We examined the consequences of using different ranging methods when comparing maps over several time intervals. METHODS: Maps of mortality rates for cancers of the breast, lung (including the lung, trachea, bronchus, and pleura), and cervix uteri in the United States by county or state economic area are created for different time intervals between 1950 and 1994. Two ranging methods are employed: 1) Ranges are defined for individual time interval by the deciles of rates in that interval (ranging within intervals), and 2) constant ranges for all time intervals are defined by the deciles of rates for the entire 45-year period from 1950 through 1994 (ranging across intervals). The time intervals from 1950 through 1969 and from 1970 through 1994 were chosen to accommodate the availability of detailed county-level population estimates specifically for blacks starting in 1970. RESULTS: The ranging method has little impact on maps for breast cancer mortality, which changed little over time. For lung cancer, which increased over time, and cervix uteri cancer, which decreased over time, ranging within time intervals shows the geographic variability but does not convey the temporal trends. Trends are evident when ranging across time intervals is employed; however, geographic variability is partially obscured by the predominance of spatial units in the highest rate categories in the recent time intervals for lung cancer and in the early time intervals for cervix uteri cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Ranging within time intervals displays geographic patterns and changes in geographic patterns, regardless of time trends in rates. Ranging across time intervals shows temporal changes in rates but with some loss of information about geographic variability.

Differentiating among proposed mechanisms for tumor promotion in mouse skin with the use of the multievent model for cancer.

Numerous mechanisms for tumor promotion in mouse skin have been recently proposed. These include the multistage, genetic view of Slaga, Furstenberger, and Marks; the multistage, genetic and/or epigenetic view of Parkinson; and the two-stage view of Yuspa and Hennings. With the use of the multievent model, a mathematical model for cancer that can incorporate cell proliferation phenomena, these tumor promotion mechanisms were modeled mathematically. It was found that the models had different predictions about the incidence of papillomas in initiator-promoter-initiator experiments and the incidence of carcinomas in initiator-promoter experiments with varying periods of tumor promotion. Upon analysis, existing data were shown to be in agreement with the Yuspa and Hennings two-stage model. The analysis also supported the view, formulated by Scribner and co-workers, that different types of initiated cells were created, some capable of transformation to carcinomas and some not. Phenomena determined by use of benign tumors as the end point may need to be demonstrated with the use of the carcinoma as the end point, prior to the acceptance of these phenomena being applicable to the human carcinogenic process.

Excess of seminomas observed in Vietnam service U.S. military working dogs.

During the Vietnam War, US military working dogs served with their companion dog handlers in close proximity, sharing common exposures to war-related activity, many zoonotic infectious agents, chemical pesticides, phenoxy herbicides, and extensive use of therapeutic drugs. To gain insight into the effects of the Vietnam experience, we investigated the occurrence of neoplasms in military working dogs based on standard necropsy examination by the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology. We observed that these dogs experienced significant elevated risks for testicular seminoma and, independently, testicular dysfunction. Experimental evidence shows testicular dysfunction and impaired spermatogenesis in laboratory animals exposed to phenoxy herbicides, dioxin, or tetracycline, and antibiotic used extensively in military working dogs in Vietnam. Because an unexplained significant decrease in sperm quality in Vietnam veterans has been observed by the Centers for Disease Control, further research is warranted if we are to clarify military service in Vietnam as a risk factor for testicular dysfunction. The testis should be made a priority site in the study of Vietnam experience-related cancers.

Temporal patterns in colorectal cancer incidence, survival, and mortality from 1950 through 1990.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer mortality rates among U.S. white males remained relatively constant from 1950 through 1984 but declined sharply from 1985 through 1990. Those for U.S. white females decreased consistently from 1950 through 1984, with an acceleration of the decline from 1985 through 1990. PURPOSE: A study was planned to investigate patterns in incidence, survival, and mortality rates over time in order to examine possible reasons for the gender difference in mortality trends and for the decrease in the slope of the mortality trends for both males and females in the late 1980s. METHODS: Incidence and survival data from the Connecticut Cancer Registry were examined to investigate the gender differences in mortality rates from 1950 through 1984. Incidence and survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program were investigated to examine reasons for the abrupt downturn in mortality rates for both white males and white females beginning around 1985. RESULTS: During the period 1950 through 1984, the colorectal cancer incidence rates in Connecticut increased for males and declined slightly for females. Survival rates were similar for both sexes, increasing on average over 1% per year for both females and males from 1950 through 1984. Examination of SEER data from 1975 through 1990 revealed that for both males and females there were 1) declines in overall incidence and mortality rates beginning in the mid-1980s, 2) steady declines in distant disease incidence rates since 1975, 3) increases in regional disease incidence rates until the early 1980s followed by declines in the late 1980s, and 4) increases in local disease incidence rates until the mid-1980s followed by declines in the late 1980s. Age-period-cohort analyses of mortality rates indicated a statistically significant moderation of colorectal cancer risk with both advancing birth cohorts and recent calendar periods. CONCLUSIONS: The gender differences in colorectal cancer mortality rate trends observed from 1950 through 1984 are due to differences in incidence rate trends between males and females. Declining colorectal mortality rates in the late 1980s for males and females appear to reflect improved early detection. The peaking and subsequent decline of stage-specific incidence rates at later years for successively lower stage indicate sequential stage shifts as cancers are detected increasingly earlier over time. The increased use of sigmoidoscopy and fecal occult blood tests (triggering colonoscopy) appears to have played an important role in reducing colorectal cancer mortality. Improvements in birth cohort trends in risk for colorectal cancer for each sex suggest that lifestyle changes may have also contributed to the steady reductions in colorectal cancer mortality.

Cancer surveillance series: recent trends in childhood cancer incidence and mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Public concern about possible increases in childhood cancer incidence in the United States led us to examine recent incidence and mortality patterns. METHODS: Cancers diagnosed in 14540 children under age 15 years from 1975 through 1995 and reported to nine population-based registries in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were investigated. Age-adjusted incidence was analyzed according to anatomic site and histologic categories of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer. Age-adjusted U.S. mortality rates were calculated. Trends in rates were evaluated by use of standard regression methods. RESULTS: A modest rise in the incidence of leukemia, the most common childhood cancer, was largely due to an abrupt increase from 1983 to 1984; rates have decreased slightly since 1989. For brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers, incidence rose modestly, although statistically significantly (two-sided P = .020), largely from 1983 through 1986. A few rare childhood cancers demonstrated upward trends (e.g., the 40% of skin cancers designated as dermatofibrosarcomas, adrenal neuroblastomas, and retinoblastomas, the latter two in infants only). In contrast, incidence decreased modestly but statistically significantly for Hodgkin's disease (two-sided P = .037). Mortality rates declined steadily for all major childhood cancer categories, although less rapidly for brain/CNS cancers. CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantial change in incidence for the major pediatric cancers, and rates have remained relatively stable since the mid-1980s. The modest increases that were observed for brain/CNS cancers, leukemia, and infant neuroblastoma were confined to the mid-1980s. The patterns suggest that the increases likely reflected diagnostic improvements or reporting changes. Dramatic declines in childhood cancer mortality represent treatment-related improvements in survival.

Repair of chromosome damage induced by X-irradiation during G2 phase in a line of normal human fibroblasts and its malignant derivative.

A line of normal human skin fibroblasts (KD) differed from its malignant derivative (HUT-14) in the extent of cytogenetic damage induced by X-irradiation during G2 phase. Malignant cells had significantly more chromatid breaks and gaps after exposure to 25, 50, or 100 rad. On the assumption that each chromatid contains a single continuous DNA double helix, chromatid breaks would represent unrepaired DNA double-strand breaks; the gaps may represent single-strand breaks. Results from alkaline elution of cellular DNA immediately after irradiation showed that the normal and malignant cells in asynchronous population were equally sensitive to DNA single-strand breakage by X-irradiation. Caffeine or beta-cytosine arabinoside (ara-C), inhibitors of DNA repair, when added directly following G2 phase exposure, significantly increased the incidence of radiation-induced chromatid damage in the normal cells. In contrast, similar treatment of the malignant cells had little influence. Ara-C differed from caffeine in its effects; whereas both agents increased the frequency of chromatid breaks and gaps, only ara-C increased the frequency of gaps to the level observed in the irradiated malignant cells. Addition of catalase, which destroys H2O2, or mannitol, a scavenger of the derivative free hydroxyl radical (.OH), to the cultures of malignant cells before, during, and following irradiation significantly reduced the chromatid damage; and catalase prevented formation of chromatid gaps. The DNA damage induced by X-ray during G2 phase in the normal KD cells was apparently repaired by a caffeine- and ara-C-sensitive mechanism(s) that was deficient or absent in their malignant derivatives.

Enhanced malignant conversion of benign mouse skin tumors by cisplatin.

The chemotherapeutic agent cisplatin, reported to be a complete carcinogen in rodents and a tumor initiator for mouse skin, was tested for activity to enhance the conversion of carcinogen-induced skin papillomas to carcinomas. Initiation of mouse skin by 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene followed by 12 weeks of promotion by 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate produced seven to eight papillomas/mouse. Ten weekly injections of 100 micrograms of cisplatin into these papilloma-bearing mice induced a 2.3-fold enhancement of conversion relative to the spontaneous rate of 1.9%. Even a single exposure to cisplatin in tumor-bearing mice increased the carcinoma incidence to the same extent as 10 exposures to urethane, an agent previously shown to enhance malignant conversion. At the dose tested, cisplatin was inactive as a complete carcinogen or a tumor promoter. Cisplatin-DNA adducts, measured in samples from skin, liver, and kidneys, were persistent for at least 4 weeks after the last exposure to cisplatin. Thus cisplatin is a relatively potent inducer of the putative genotoxic changes required for conversion of skin tumors from a benign to a malignant phenotype. The activity of cisplatin in the initiation and malignant conversion stages in this animal model for carcinogenesis suggests that patients given cisplatin-based chemotherapy are at increased risk for the development of treatment-induced second cancers.

Case-control study of canine malignant lymphoma: positive association with dog owner's use of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid herbicides.

A hospital-based case-control study of companion dogs examined the risk of developing canine malignant lymphoma associated with the use of chemicals in and about the home. Information from a self-administered owner questionnaire and/or a telephone interview of about 491 cases, 466 nontumor controls, and 479 tumor controls indicated that owners in households with dogs that developed malignant lymphoma applied 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) herbicides to their lawn and/or employed commercial lawn care companies to treat their yard significantly more frequently than control owners (odds ratio = 1.3). In addition, the risk of canine malignant lymphoma rose to a twofold excess with four or more yearly owner applications of 2,4-D. The findings in this study are consistent with occupational studies in humans, which have reported modest associations between agricultural exposure to 2,4-D and increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, the histology and epidemiology of which are similar to those of canine malignant lymphoma. The present study suggests that human health implications of 2,4-D exposure in the home environment should receive further investigation.

Recent cancer trends in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence rates have been reported to be increasing in the United States, although trends vary according to form of cancer. PURPOSE: We identify the cancers accounting for the rising incidence, quantify the changes that have occurred from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s, and contrast incidence and mortality trends to provide clues to the determinants of the temporal patterns. METHODS: Sex-, race-, and age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates for the 5-year periods 1987-1991 versus 1975-1979 were calculated for 28 cancers among men and 30 cancers among women using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of cancer registration covering about 10% of the U.S. population. Similar rates were computed using national mortality data. Cancers were ranked according to the change in incidence rates over the two periods. RESULTS: Age-adjusted incidence rates for all cancers combined increased by 18.6% among males and 12.4% among females from 1975-1979 to 1987-1991, due largely to rising rates for prostate cancer among men and for breast and lung cancers among women. National mortality rates for all cancers combined rose less steeply, 3% and 6% among men and women, respectively, driven mostly by continuing increases in lung cancer mortality, while death rates for the majority of the cancers were steady or declining. Total cancer incidence rose at all ages, but with different tumors responsible for the increases at different ages: leukemia and brain/nervous system cancer among children; testicular cancer, nonmelanoma skin cancer (largely Kaposi's sarcoma), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and melanoma among young and middle-aged adults; and prostate, breast, and lung cancers among older individuals. In contrast, mortality rates for all cancers combined declined among both males and females under age 55 years, increasing only among older persons. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in cancer incidence and mortality differ. For most cancers, incidence rates are rising, while mortality rates are generally stable or declining. IMPLICATIONS: Much of the recent increase in cancer incidence can be explained by known factors. Improved detection appears to account for most of the increases in breast cancer among women and prostate cancer among men. On the other hand, cigarette smoking is the major determinant of the rise in lung cancer among women, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome has led to increases in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma among young and middle-aged men, and sunlight exposure patterns have affected the trends in melanoma. Some trends remain unexplained, however, and may reflect changing exposures to carcinogens yet to be identified and clarified.

Recent trends in U.S. breast cancer incidence, survival, and mortality rates.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have demonstrated that use of mammographic screening and advances in therapy can improve prognosis for women with breast cancer. PURPOSE: We determined the trends in breast cancer mortality rates, as well as incidence and survival rates by extent of disease at diagnosis, for white women in the United States and considered whether these trends are consistent with widespread use of such beneficial medical interventions. METHODS: We examined mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics and incidence and survival data by extent of disease from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, all stratified by patient age, using statistical-regression techniques to determine changes in the slope of trends over time. RESULTS: The age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate for U.S. white females dropped 6.8% from 1989 through 1993. A significant decrease in the slope of the mortality trend of approximately 2% per year was observed in every decade of age from 40 to 79 years of age. Trends in incidence rates were also similar among these age groups: localized disease rates increased rapidly from 1982 through 1987 and stabilized or increased more slowly thereafter; regional disease rates decreased after 1987; and distant disease rates have remained level over the past 20 years. Three-year relative survival rates increased steadily and significantly for both localized and regional disease from 1980 through 1989 in all ages, with no evidence of an increase in slope in the late 1980s. IMPLICATIONS: The decrease in the diagnosis of regional disease in the late 1980s in women over the age of 40 years likely reflects the increased use of mammography earlier in the 1980s. The increase in survival rates, particularly for regional disease, likely reflects improvements in systemic adjuvant therapy. Statistical modeling indicates that the recent drop in breast cancer mortality is too rapid to be explained only by the increased use of mammography; likewise, there has been no equivalent dramatic increase in survival rates that would implicate therapy alone. Thus, indications are that both are involved in the recent rapid decline in breast cancer mortality rates in the United States.