Identifying mitigating strategies for endothelial cell dysfunction and hypertension in response to VEGF receptor inhibitors.

Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor inhibitors (VEGFRis) improve cancer survival but are associated with treatment-limiting hypertension, often attributed to endothelial cell (EC) dysfunction. Using phosphoproteomic profiling of VEGFRi-treated ECs, drugs were screened for mitigators of VEGFRi-induced EC dysfunction and validated in primary aortic ECs, mice, and canine cancer patients. VEGFRi treatment significantly raised systolic blood pressure (SBP) and increased markers of endothelial and renal dysfunction in mice and canine cancer patients. α-Adrenergic-antagonists were identified as drugs that most oppose the VEGFRi proteomic signature. Doxazosin, one such α-antagonist, prevented EC dysfunction in murine, canine, and human aortic ECs. In mice with sorafenib-induced-hypertension, doxazosin mitigated EC dysfunction but not hypertension or glomerular endotheliosis, while lisinopril mitigated hypertension and glomerular endotheliosis without impacting EC function. Hence, reversing EC dysfunction was insufficient to mitigate VEGFRi-induced-hypertension in this mouse model. Canine cancer patients with VEGFRi-induced-hypertension were randomized to doxazosin or lisinopril and both agents significantly decreased SBP. The canine clinical trial supports safety and efficacy of doxazosin and lisinopril as antihypertensives for VEGFRi-induced-hypertension and the potential of trials in canines with spontaneous cancer to accelerate translation. The overall findings demonstrate the utility of phosphoproteomics to identify EC-protective agents to mitigate cardio-oncology side effects.

The effect of tablet computer-based telemonitoring added to an established telephone disease management program on heart failure hospitalizations: The Specialized Primary and Networked Care in Heart Failure (SPAN-CHF) III Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Mobile health applications are becoming increasingly common. Prior work has demonstrated reduced heart failure (HF) hospitalizations with HF disease management programs; however, few of these programs have used tablet computer-based technology. METHODS: Participants with a diagnosis of HF and at least 1 high risk feature for hospitalization were randomized to either an established telephone-based disease management program or the same disease management program with the addition of remote monitoring of weight, blood pressure, heart rate and symptoms via a tablet computer for 90 days. The primary endpoint was the number of days hospitalized for HF assessed at 90 days. RESULTS: From August 2014 to April 2019, 212 participants from 3 hospitals in Massachusetts were randomized 3:1 to telemonitoring-based HF disease management (n = 159) or telephone-based HF disease management (n = 53) with 98% of individuals in both study groups completing the 90 days of follow-up. There was no significant difference in the number of days hospitalized for HF between the telemonitoring disease management group (0.88 ± 3.28 days per patient-90 days) and the telephone-based disease management group (1.00 ± 2.97 days per patient-90 days); incidence rate ratio 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-1.58; P = .442). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of tablet-based telemonitoring to an established HF telephone-based disease management program did not reduce HF hospitalizations; however, study power was limited.

Cardioprotection of High-Risk Individuals.

Targeting cardioprotective strategies to patients at the highest risk for cardiac events can help maximize therapeutic benefits. Dexrazoxane, liposomal formulations, continuous infusions, and neurohormonal antagonists may be useful for cardioprotection for anthracycline-treated patients at the highest risk for heart failure. Prevalent cardiovascular disease is a risk factor for cardiac events with many cancer therapies, including anthracyclines, anti-human-epidermal growth factor receptor-2 therapy, radiation, and BCR-Abl tyrosine kinase inhibitors, and may be a risk factor for cardiac events with other therapies. Although evidence for cardioprotective strategies is sparse for nonanthracycline therapies, optimizing cardiac risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular disease may improve outcomes.

A Review of Immunotherapy for Stage III and Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and the Rationale for the ECOG-ACRIN EA5181 Study.

ECOG-ACRIN EA5181 is a phase III prospective, randomized trial that randomizes patients undergoing chemo/radiation for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) to concomitant durvalumab or no additional therapy, with both arms receiving 1 year of consolidative durvalumab. Radiation dose escalation failed to improve overall survival in RTOG 0617. However, conventionally fractionated radiation to 60 Gy with concomitant chemotherapy is associated with a high risk of local failure (38%-46%). It is hoped that concomitant immunotherapy during chemo/radiation can help decrease the risk of local failure, thereby improving overall survival and progression-free survival with acceptable toxicity. In this article, we review conventional chemo/radiation therapy for LA-NSCLC, as well as the quickly evolving world of immunotherapy in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer and discuss the rationale and study design of EA5181. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This article provides an up-to-date assessment of how immunotherapy is reshaping the landscape of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and how the impact of this therapy is now rapidly moving into the treatment of patients with locally advanced NSCLC who are presenting for curative treatment. This article reviews the recent publications of chemo/radiation as well as those combining immunotherapy with chemotherapy and chemo/radiation, and provides a strategy for improving overall survival of patients with locally advanced NSCLC by using concomitant immunotherapy with standard concurrent chemo/radiation.

Cardioprotective Strategies to Prevent Cancer Treatment-Related Cardiovascular Toxicity: a Review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Patients with cancer have an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease. This review describes the cardiovascular risks of different cancer therapies and the evidence for cardioprotective strategies. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies have provided additional support for the safety and efficacy of dexrazoxane and liposomal anthracycline formulations in certain high-risk patients receiving anthracyclines and for neurohormonal antagonist therapy in patients with breast cancer receiving sequential anthracyclines and trastuzumab. Ongoing studies are exploring the benefit of: (1) statins for anthracycline cardioprotection; (2) strict blood pressure control during vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitor treatment and; (3) dexrazoxane on long-term cardiac outcomes in pediatric populations. To date, there are no evidence-based cardioprotective strategies specifically for radiation-related heart and vascular disease, immunotherapy myocarditis, fluoropyrimidine cardiotoxicity, vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitor-related hypertension, BCR-Abl multikinase inhibitor vascular disease, and other established and emerging cancer therapeutics with cardiovascular effects. Current evidence supports specific cardioprotective strategies for high risk patients receiving anthracyclines or sequential anthracycline-trastuzumab therapy; however, major evidence gaps exist.

The Role of Biomarkers to Evaluate Cardiotoxicity.

OPINION STATEMENT: Moderate-level evidence suggests that cardiac troponin and natriuretic peptides are useful for risk stratification and early identification of anthracycline cardiotoxicity; however, many of these studies used older chemotherapy regimens, and thus, the applicability to current anthracycline treatment regimens is uncertain. Further research is needed to determine optimal timing and thresholds for troponin and natriuretic peptides in anthracycline-treated patients and evaluate these and other promising biomarkers for anti-HER2 therapies, thoracic radiation, anti-VEGF therapy, and fluoropyrimidine therapy-related cardiotoxicity. Risk tools that combine cardiac risk factors, cancer treatment variables, biomarkers, and imaging parameters are most likely to accurately identify individuals at highest risk for cancer therapy cardiotoxicity. Clinical trials focusing cardioprotective strategies on high-risk individuals are more likely to result in clinically significant results compared with primary prevention cardioprotective approaches.

Detailed phenotyping reveals distinct trajectories of cardiovascular function and symptoms with exposure to modern breast cancer therapy.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer therapies are associated with a risk of cardiac dysfunction, most commonly defined by changes in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Recently, the authors identified 3 classes of LVEF change after exposure to anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab using latent class growth modeling. The objective of the current study was to characterize the clinical, biochemical, and functional profiles associated with LVEF trajectory class membership. METHODS: Transthoracic echocardiography and biomarker assessments were performed and questionnaires were administered at standardized intervals in a longitudinal cohort of 314 patients with breast cancer who were treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab. Univariable and multivariable multinomial regression analyses evaluated associations between baseline variables and LVEF trajectory class membership. Generalized estimating equations were used to define mean changes in cardiovascular measures over time within each class. RESULTS: Among the 3 distinct subgroups of LVEF changes identified (stable [class 1]; modest, persistent decline [class 2]; and significant early decline followed by partial recovery [class 3]), higher baseline LVEF, radiotherapy, and sequential therapy with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab were associated with class 2 or 3 membership. Sustained abnormalities in longitudinal strain and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were observed in patients in class 2, as were heart failure symptoms. Similar abnormalities were observed in patients in class 3, but there was a trend toward recovery, particularly for longitudinal strain. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with modest, persistent LVEF declines experienced sustained abnormalities in imaging and biochemical markers of cardiac function and heart failure symptoms. Further investigation is needed to characterize the long-term risk of heart failure, particularly in those with modest LVEF declines.

The Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio and Survival During Left Ventricular Assist Device Support.

BACKGROUND: Systolic heart failure (HF) is a low-grade systemic inflammatory state. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a nonspecific inflammatory marker with prognostic value in HF. We aimed to determine the relationship between NLR and mortality during left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed LVAD recipients implanted in the years 2010-2018. NLR was recorded before LVAD implantation and at intervals during LVAD support; pre-LVAD and 90-day LVAD NLRs were compared. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to study the impact of NLR, both before LVAD implantation and at 90 days with LVAD, on mortality during subsequent LVAD support. Among 301 subjects, the median pre-LVAD NLR was 4.7 (interquartile range 3.0-8.0). Higher pre-LVAD NLR was independently associated with increased mortality during a median 324 days of LVAD support (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.06; P = .012, adjusted for pre-LVAD age, HF etiology, white blood count, hemoglobin, blood urea nitrogen, and sodium). After LVAD implantation, the NLR rose initially and then plateaued lower by day 90. Despite the mean decrease, higher 90-day LVAD NLR remained independently associated with increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.13; P = .033, stratified by early infection events). CONCLUSIONS: Higher pre-LVAD NLR is independently associated with mortality during LVAD support. NLR improves during LVAD support, but even accounting for early infections, a higher NLR at day 90 remains associated with subsequent mortality.

Disseminated mucormycosis masquerading as rejection early after orthotopic heart transplantation.

Mucorales organisms are an uncommon cause of invasive fungal infections after solid organ transplantation but are associated with great morbidity and mortality. We report a fatal case of disseminated Cunninghamella infection early after heart transplantation. The patient developed graft dysfunction and elevated markers of myocyte injury and autopsy revealed fulminant fungal myocarditis. This case highlights the need for a high index of suspicion in immunocompromised patients who are not improving with standard antimicrobial therapy.

The Association Between Pulmonary Vascular Resistance and Posttransplant Outcomes Differs by Left Ventricular Assist Device Status.

Elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) is a risk factor for mortality after heart transplantation (HT), but whether this association differs for patients with and without left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support before HT is unknown. We analyzed adult first-time HT recipients from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry transplanted between 2010 and 2021. We quantified the association between PVR and the outcomes of 30 day graft failure and 1 year mortality using multivariable logistic regression, stratified by LVAD support status at the time of HT. Pulmonary vascular resistance was modeled using restricted cubic splines to identify clinically relevant risk thresholds. We also examined the association with 10 year survival using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. For PVR values less than approximately 2 WU, higher PVR was independently associated with a higher risk of early graft failure (odds ratio [OR] = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.06-2.36) and a higher risk of 1 year mortality (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.10-1.59) among LVAD patients only (interaction p = 0.023 and 0.03, respectively). However, for patients surviving at least 1 year, PVR was not associated with long-term mortality among either subgroup. Whether more aggressive reduction of PVR among HT candidates supported with LVADs can mitigate these risks requires further study.

Providing Survivorship Care for a Young Adult With a History of Blood Cancer.

Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with a history of cancer are at an increased risk for late effects from their cancer treatment and have higher rates of long-term morbidity and mortality compared to their age-matched peers. As a result, this vulnerable population needs attentive follow-up care, end-organ surveillance, and secondary cancer screening; however, a history of cancer can often become buried on a problem list or not addressed at all. This case report illustrates an AYA survivor of classic Hodgkin lymphoma who relocates to a new city and establishes care with a new primary care provider (PCP). The PCP's awareness of a prior cancer diagnosis and the previous treatment regimen is a critical component in providing comprehensive care. In this case, the PCP's first step is to reach out and collaborate with oncology providers to gather an accurate treatment summary and then consult evidence-based guidelines to develop a plan of care. Based on the patient's previous treatment with chemotherapy adriamycin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine, the PCP orders recommended testing, reviews results, and provides subsequent counseling on health promotion and psychosocial wellness. This case illustrates strategies healthcare providers can use to provide coordinated, evidence-based care for AYA cancer survivors.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Longitudinal Risk Factor Management Among Patients With Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of noncancer mortality for breast cancer survivors. Data are limited regarding patient-level atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimation and preventive medication use. This study aimed to characterize ASCVD risk and longitudinal preventive medication use for a cohort of patients with nonmetastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 326 patients at an academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ from January 2009 through December 2015. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory studies, medication exposure, and incident cardiovascular outcomes were collected. Estimated 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated for all patients from nonlaboratory clinical parameters. RESULTS: Median follow up time was 6.5 years (IQR 5.0, 8.1). At cancer diagnosis, 23 patients (7.1%) had established ASCVD. Among those without ASCVD, 10-year estimated ASCVD risk was ≥20% for 77 patients (25.4%) and 7.5% to <20% for 114 patients (37.6%). Two-hundred and sixteen patients (66.3%) had an indication for lipid-lowering therapy at cancer diagnosis, 123 of whom (57.0%) received a statin during the study. Among 100 patients with ASCVD or estimated 10-year ASCVD risk ≥20%, 92 (92.0%) received an antihypertensive medication during the study. Clinic blood pressure >140/90 mmHg was observed in 33.0% to 55.6% of these patients at each follow up assessment. CONCLUSION: A majority of patients in this breast cancer cohort had an elevated risk of ASCVD at the time of cancer diagnosis. Modifiable ASCVD risk factors were frequently untreated or uncontrolled in the years following cancer treatment.

Impact of Preexisting Heart Failure on Treatment and Outcomes in Older Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma.

Background: Older patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) often have comorbid cardiovascular disease; however, the impact of pre-existing heart failure (HF) on the management and outcomes of HL is unknown. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of pre-existing HF in older patients with HL and its impact on treatment and outcomes. Methods: Linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Medicare data from 1999 to 2016 were used to identify patients 65 years and older with newly diagnosed HL. Pre-existing HF, comorbidities, and cancer treatment were ascertained from billing codes and cause-specific mortality from SEER. The associations between pre-existing HF and cancer treatment were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for comorbidities and cancer treatment were used to estimate the association between pre-existing HF and cause-specific mortality. Results: Among 3,348 patients (mean age 76 ± 7 years, 48.6% women) with newly diagnosed HL, pre-existing HF was present in 437 (13.1%). Pre-existing HF was associated with a lower likelihood of using anthracycline-based chemotherapy regimens (OR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.29-0.60) and a higher likelihood of lymphoma mortality (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.06-1.46) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.57; 95% CI: 1.96-3.36) in models adjusted for comorbidities. One-year lymphoma mortality cumulative incidence was 37.4% (95% CI: 35.5%-39.5%) with pre-existing HF and 26.3% (95% CI: 25.0%-27.6%) without pre-existing HF. The cardioprotective medications dexrazoxane and liposomal doxorubicin were used in only 4.2% of patients. Conclusions: Pre-existing HF in older patients with newly diagnosed HL is common and associated with higher 1-year mortality. Strategies are needed to improve lymphoma and cardiovascular outcomes in this high-risk population.

Harnessing multi-source data for individualized care in Hodgkin Lymphoma.

Hodgkin lymphoma is a rare, but highly curative form of cancer, primarily afflicting adolescents and young adults. Despite multiple seminal trials over the past twenty years, there is no single consensus-based treatment approach beyond use of multi-agency chemotherapy with curative intent. The use of radiation continues to be debated in early-stage disease, as part of combined modality treatment, as well as in salvage, as an important form of consolidation. While short-term disease outcomes have varied little across these different approaches across both early and advanced stage disease, the potential risk of severe, longer-term risk has varied considerably. Over the past decade novel therapeutics have been employed in the retrieval setting in preparation to and as consolidation after autologous stem cell transplant. More recently, these novel therapeutics have moved to the frontline setting, initially compared to standard-of-care treatment and later in a direct head-to-head comparison combined with multi-agent chemotherapy. In 2018, we established the HoLISTIC Consortium, bringing together disease and methods experts to develop clinical decision models based on individual patient data to guide providers, patients, and caregivers in decision-making. In this review, we detail the steps we followed to create the master database of individual patient data from patients treated over the past 20 years, using principles of data science. We then describe different methodological approaches we are taking to clinical decision making, beginning with clinical prediction tools at the time of diagnosis, to multi-state models, incorporating treatments and their response. Finally, we describe how simulation modeling can be used to estimate risks of late effects, based on cumulative exposure from frontline and salvage treatment. The resultant database and tools employed are dynamic with the expectation that they will be updated as better and more complete information becomes available.

Preoperative cardiac risk assessment for noncardiac surgery in patients with heart failure.

The aging population and an epidemic of heart failure have led to an increasing volume of noncardiac surgical procedures being performed in patients with heart failure. Knowledge pertaining to perioperative risk stratification and management among this diverse and complex cohort of patients has therefore become increasingly important. Most available data regarding the management of patients with heart disease undergoing noncardiac surgery is specific to patients with ischemic heart disease, and focuses on the prevention of ischemia and its subsequent complications. This review instead specifically explores the available data regarding the epidemiology and outcomes of the surgical patient with heart failure, with a focus on risk stratification and perioperative management.

Hodgkin lymphoma treatment for older persons in the modern era.

There has been a renewed effort globally in the study of older Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients, generating a multitude of new data. For prognostication, advancing age, comorbidities, altered functional status, Hispanic ethnicity, and lack of dose intensity (especially without anthracycline) portend inferior survival. Geriatric assessments (GA), including activities of daily living (ADL) and comorbidities, should be objectively measured in all patients. In addition, proactive multidisciplinary medical management is recommended (eg, geriatrics, cardiology, primary care), and pre-phase therapy should be considered for most patients. Treatment for fit older HL patients should be given with curative intent, including anthracyclines, and bleomycin should be minimized (or avoided). Brentuximab vedotin given sequentially before and after doxorubicin, vinblastine, dacarbazine (AVD) chemotherapy for untreated patients is tolerable and effective, and frontline checkpoint inhibitor/AVD platforms are rapidly emerging. Therapy for patients who are unfit or frail, whether due to comorbidities and/or ADL loss, is less clear and should be individualized with consideration of attenuated anthracycline-based therapy versus lower-intensity regimens with inclusion of brentuximab vedotin +/- checkpoint inhibitors. For all patients, there should be clinical vigilance with close monitoring for treatment-related toxicities, including neurotoxicity, cardiopulmonary, and infectious complications. Finally, active surveillance for "postacute" complications 1 to 10 years post therapy, especially cardiac disease, is needed for cured patients. Altogether, therapy for older HL patients should include anthracycline-based therapy in most cases, and novel targeted agents should continue to be integrated into treatment paradigms, with more research needed on how best to utilize GAs for treatment decisions.

Taking Care of Us© (TCU) study protocol: feasibility and acceptability of a dyadic intervention for couples living with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: There are more than 1 million hospital admissions and 3 million emergency visits for heart failure in the USA annually. Although spouse/partners make substantial contributions to the management of heart failure and experience poor health and high levels of care strain, they are rarely the focus of heart failure interventions. This protocol describes a pilot randomized controlled trial that tests the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary change in outcomes of a seven-session couple-based intervention called Taking Care of Us© (TCU). The TCU© intervention is grounded in the theory of dyadic illness management and was developed to promote collaborative illness management and better physical and mental health of adults with heart failure and their partners. METHODS: A two-arm randomized controlled trial will be conducted. Eligible adults with heart failure and their co-residing spouse/partner will be recruited from a clinical site in the USA and community/social media outreach and randomized to either the TCU© intervention or to a control condition (SUPPORT©) that offers education around heart failure management. The target sample is 60 couples (30 per arm). TCU© couples will receive seven sessions over 2 months via Zoom; SUPPORT© couples will receive three sessions over 2 months via Zoom. All participants will complete self-report measures at baseline (T1), post-treatment (T2), and 3 months post-treatment (T3). Acceptability and feasibility of the intervention will be examined using both closed-ended and open-ended questions as well as enrollment, retention, completion, and satisfaction metrics. Preliminary exploration of change in outcomes of TCU© on dyadic health, dyadic appraisal, and collaborative management will also be conducted. DISCUSSION: Theoretically driven, evidence-based dyadic interventions are needed to optimize the health of both members of the couple living with heart failure. Results from this study will provide important information about recruitment and retention and benefits and drawbacks of the TCU© program to directly inform any needed refinements of the program and decision to move to a main trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04737759) registered on 27 January 2021.

Adverse Cardiovascular Events Associated With Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4/6 Inhibitors in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer.

Background Cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) 4 and 6 inhibitors have significantly improved survival in patients with hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer. There are few data regarding the epidemiology of cardiovascular adverse events (CVAEs) with these therapies. Methods and Results Using the OneFlorida Data Trust, adult patients without prior cardiovascular disease who received at least 1 CDK4/6 inhibitor were included in the analysis. CVAEs identified from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions (ICD-9/10) codes included hypertension, atrial fibrillation(AF)/atrial flutter (AFL), heart failure/cardiomyopathy, ischemic heart disease, and pericardial disease. Competing risk analysis (Fine-Gray model) was used to determine the association between CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy and incident CVAEs. The effect of CVAEs on all-cause death was studied using Cox proportional hazard models. Propensity-weight analyses were performed to compare these patients to a cohort of patients treated with anthracyclines. A total of 1376 patients treated with CDK4/6 inhibitors were included in the analysis. CVAEs occurred in 24% (35.9 per 100 person-years). CVAEs were slightly higher in patients who received CKD4/6 inhibitors compared with anthracyclines (P=0.063), with higher death rate associated with the development of AF/AFL or cardiomyopathy/heart failure in the CDK4/6 group. The development of cardiomyopathy/heart failure and AF/AFL was associated with increased all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 4.89 [95% CI, 2.98-8.05]; and 5.88 [95% CI, 3.56-9.73], respectively). Conclusions CVAEs may be more common with CDK4/6 inhibitors than previously recognized, with increased death rates in these patients who develop AF/AFL or heart failure. Further research is needed to definitively determine cardiovascular risk associated with these novel anticancer treatments.

The Advanced-Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma International Prognostic Index: Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model From the HoLISTIC Consortium.

PURPOSE: The International Prognostic Score (IPS) has been used in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) for 25 years. However, analyses have documented suboptimal performance of the IPS among contemporarily treated patients. Harnessing multisource individual patient data from the Hodgkin Lymphoma International Study for Individual Care consortium, we developed and validated a modern clinical prediction model. METHODS: Model development via Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines was performed on 4,022 patients with newly diagnosed advanced-stage adult cHL from eight international phase III clinical trials, conducted from 1996 to 2014. External validation was performed on 1,431 contemporaneously treated patients from four real-world cHL registries. To consider association over a full range of continuous variables, we evaluated piecewise linear splines for potential nonlinear relationships. Five-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The median age in the development cohort was 33 (18-65) years; nodular sclerosis was the most common histology. Kaplan-Meier estimators were 0.77 for 5-year PFS and 0.92 for 5-year OS. Significant predictor variables included age, sex, stage, bulk, absolute lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and albumin, with slight variation for PFS versus OS. Moreover, age and absolute lymphocyte count yielded nonlinear relationships with outcomes. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model for 5-year PFS and OS were 0.590 and 0.720, respectively. There was good discrimination and calibration in external validation and consistent performance in internal-external validation. Compared with the IPS, there was superior discrimination for OS and enhanced calibration for PFS and OS. CONCLUSION: We rigorously developed and externally validated a clinical prediction model in > 5,000 patients with advanced-stage cHL. Furthermore, we identified several novel nonlinear relationships and improved the prediction of patient outcomes. An online calculator was created for individualized point-of-care use.