Combined analyses of within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and information on past exposures to the virus in a human cohort identifies intrinsic differences of Omicron and Delta variants.

The emergence of successive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) during 2020 to 2022, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics-such as varying levels of immunity-can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) planning and response and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both interindividual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics-such as vaccination status, exposure history, and age-we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least 5 prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs. Trial Registration: The Legacy study is a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening for SARS-CoV-2 at University College London Hospitals or at the Francis Crick Institute (NCT04750356) (22,23). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469) and is sponsored by University College London Hospitals. Written consent was given by all participants.

High-density lipoprotein mediates anti-inflammatory reprogramming of macrophages via the transcriptional regulator ATF3.

High-density lipoprotein (HDL) mediates reverse cholesterol transport and is known to be protective against atherosclerosis. In addition, HDL has potent anti-inflammatory properties that may be critical for protection against other inflammatory diseases. The molecular mechanisms of how HDL can modulate inflammation, particularly in immune cells such as macrophages, remain poorly understood. Here we identify the transcriptional regulator ATF3, as an HDL-inducible target gene in macrophages that downregulates the expression of Toll-like receptor (TLR)-induced proinflammatory cytokines. The protective effects of HDL against TLR-induced inflammation were fully dependent on ATF3 in vitro and in vivo. Our findings may explain the broad anti-inflammatory and metabolic actions of HDL and provide the basis for predicting the success of new HDL-based therapies.

Office measurement vs. ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: associations with mortality in patients with or without diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Guidelines suggest similar blood pressure (BP) targets in patients with and without diabetes and recommend ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) to diagnose and classify hypertension. It was explored whether different levels of ambulatory and office BP and different hypertension phenotypes associate with differences of risk in diabetes and no diabetes. METHODS: This analysis assessed outcome data from the Spanish ABPM Registry in 59 124 patients with complete available data. The associations between office, mean, daytime, and nighttime ambulatory BP with the risk in patients with or without diabetes were explored. The effects of diabetes on mortality in different hypertension phenotypes, i.e. sustained hypertension, white-coat hypertension, and masked hypertension, compared with normotension were studied. Analyses were done with Cox regression analyses and adjusted for demographic and clinical confounders. RESULTS: A total of 59 124 patients were recruited from 223 primary care centres in Spain. The majority had an office systolic BP >140 mmHg (36 700 patients), and 23 128 (40.6%) patients were untreated. Diabetes was diagnosed in 11 391 patients (19.2%). Concomitant cardiovascular (CV) disease was present in 2521 patients (23.1%) with diabetes and 4616 (10.0%) without diabetes. Twenty-four-hour mean, daytime, and nighttime ambulatory BP were associated with increased risk in diabetes and no diabetes, while in office BP, there was no clear association with no differences with and without diabetes. While the relative association of BP to CV death risk was similar in diabetes compared with no diabetes (mean interaction P = .80, daytime interaction P = .97, and nighttime interaction P = .32), increased event rates occurred in diabetes for all ABPM parameters for CV death and all-cause death. White-coat hypertension was not associated with risk for CV death (hazard ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.72-1.03) and slightly reduced risk for all-cause death in no diabetes (hazard ratio 0.89; confidence interval 0.81-0.98) but without significant interaction between diabetes and no diabetes. Sustained hypertension and masked hypertension in diabetes and no diabetes were associated with even higher risk. There were no significant interactions in hypertensive phenotypes between diabetes and no diabetes and CV death risk (interaction P = .26), while some interaction was present for all-cause death (interaction P = .043) and non-CV death (interaction P = .053). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes increased the risk for all-cause death, CV, and non-CV death at every level of office and ambulatory BP. Masked and sustained hypertension confer to the highest risk, while white-coat hypertension appears grossly neutral without interaction of relative risk between diabetes and no diabetes. These results support recommendations of international guidelines for strict BP control and using ABPM for classification and assessment of risk and control of hypertension, particularly in patients with diabetes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

Relationship between clinic and ambulatory blood pressure and mortality: an observational cohort study in 59 124 patients.

BACKGROUND: Ambulatory blood pressure provides a more comprehensive assessment than clinic blood pressure, and has been reported to better predict health outcomes than clinic or home pressure. We aimed to examine associations of clinic and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of primary care patients referred for assessment of hypertension. METHODS: We did an observational cohort study using clinic and ambulatory blood pressure data obtained from March 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2014, from the Spanish Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry. This registry included patients from 223 primary care centres from the Spanish National Health System in all 17 regions of Spain. Mortality data (date and cause) were ascertained by a computerised search of the vital registry of the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. Complete data were available for age, sex, all blood pressure measures, and BMI. For each study participant, follow-up was from the date of their recruitment to the date of death or Dec 31, 2019, whichever occurred first. Cox models were used to estimate associations between usual clinic or ambulatory blood pressure and mortality, adjusted for confounders and additionally for alternative measures of blood pressure. For each measure of blood pressure, we created five groups (ie, fifths) defined by quintiles of that measure among those who subsequently died. FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 9·7 years, 7174 (12·1%) of 59 124 patients died, including 2361 (4·0%) from cardiovascular causes. J-shaped associations were observed for several blood pressure measures. Among the top four baseline-defined fifths, 24-h systolic blood pressure was more strongly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1·41 per 1 - SD increment [95% CI 1·36-1·47]) than clinic systolic blood pressure (1·18 [1·13-1·23]). After adjustment for clinic blood pressure, 24-h blood pressure remained strongly associated with all-cause deaths (HR 1·43 [95% CI 1·37-1·49]), but the association between clinic blood pressure and all-cause death was attenuated when adjusted for 24-h blood pressure (1·04 [1·00-1·09]). Compared with the informativeness of clinic systolic blood pressure (100%), night-time systolic blood pressure was most informative about risk of all-cause death (591%) and cardiovascular death (604%). Relative to blood pressure within the normal range, elevated all-cause mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·12-1·37]) and sustained hypertension (1·24 [1·15-1·32]), but not white-coat hypertension, and elevated cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (1·37 [1·15-1·63]) and sustained hypertension (1·38 [1·22-1·55]), but not white-coat hypertension. INTERPRETATION: Ambulatory blood pressure, particularly night-time blood pressure, was more informative about the risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death than clinic blood pressure. FUNDING: Spanish Society of Hypertension, Lacer Laboratories, UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centres (Oxford and University College London Hospitals), and British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence.

Phenogrouping heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction using electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction includes a heterogenous group of patients. Reclassification into distinct phenogroups to enable targeted interventions is a priority. This study aimed to identify distinct phenogroups, and compare phenogroup characteristics and outcomes, from electronic health record data. METHODS: 2,187 patients admitted to five UK hospitals with a diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 40% were identified from the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative database. Partition-based, model-based, and density-based machine learning clustering techniques were applied. Cox Proportional Hazards and Fine-Gray competing risks models were used to compare outcomes (all-cause mortality and hospitalisation for HF) across phenogroups. RESULTS: Three phenogroups were identified: (1) Younger, predominantly female patients with high prevalence of cardiometabolic and coronary disease; (2) More frail patients, with higher rates of lung disease and atrial fibrillation; (3) Patients characterised by systemic inflammation and high rates of diabetes and renal dysfunction. Survival profiles were distinct, with an increasing risk of all-cause mortality from phenogroups 1 to 3 (p < 0.001). Phenogroup membership significantly improved survival prediction compared to conventional factors. Phenogroups were not predictive of hospitalisation for HF. CONCLUSIONS: Applying unsupervised machine learning to routinely collected electronic health record data identified phenogroups with distinct clinical characteristics and unique survival profiles.

Harmonization of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension Blood Pressure/Hypertension Guidelines: Comparisons, Reflections, and Recommendations.

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension clinical practice guidelines for management of high blood pressure/hypertension are influential documents. Both guidelines are comprehensive, were developed using rigorous processes, and underwent extensive peer review. The most notable difference between the 2 guidelines is the blood pressure cut points recommended for the diagnosis of hypertension. There are also differences in the timing and intensity of treatment, with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline recommending a somewhat more intensive approach. Overall, there is substantial concordance in the recommendations provided by the 2 guideline-writing committees, with greater congruity between them than their predecessors. Additional harmonization of future guidelines would help to underscore the commonality of their core recommendations and could serve to catalyze changes in practice that would lead to improved prevention, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, worldwide.

Cardiovascular outcomes in adults with hypertension with evening versus morning dosing of usual antihypertensives in the UK (TIME study): a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies have suggested that evening dosing with antihypertensive therapy might have better outcomes than morning dosing. The Treatment in Morning versus Evening (TIME) study aimed to investigate whether evening dosing of usual antihypertensive medication improves major cardiovascular outcomes compared with morning dosing in patients with hypertension. METHODS: The TIME study is a prospective, pragmatic, decentralised, parallel-group study in the UK, that recruited adults (aged ≥18 years) with hypertension and taking at least one antihypertensive medication. Eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1), without restriction, stratification, or minimisation, to take all of their usual antihypertensive medications in either the morning (0600-1000 h) or in the evening (2000-0000 h). Participants were followed up for the composite primary endpoint of vascular death or hospitalisation for non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke. Endpoints were identified by participant report or record linkage to National Health Service datasets and were adjudicated by a committee masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was assessed as the time to first occurrence of an event in the intention-to-treat population (ie, all participants randomly assigned to a treatment group). Safety was assessed in all participants who submitted at least one follow-up questionnaire. The study is registered with EudraCT (2011-001968-21) and ISRCTN (18157641), and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between Dec 17, 2011, and June 5, 2018, 24 610 individuals were screened and 21 104 were randomly assigned to evening (n=10 503) or morning (n=10 601) dosing groups. Mean age at study entry was 65·1 years (SD 9·3); 12 136 (57·5%) participants were men; 8968 (42·5%) were women; 19 101 (90·5%) were White; 98 (0·5%) were Black, African, Caribbean, or Black British (ethnicity was not reported by 1637 [7·8%] participants); and 2725 (13·0%) had a previous cardiovascular disease. By the end of study follow-up (March 31, 2021), median follow-up was 5·2 years (IQR 4·9-5·7), and 529 (5·0%) of 10 503 participants assigned to evening treatment and 318 (3·0%) of 10 601 assigned to morning treatment had withdrawn from all follow-up. A primary endpoint event occurred in 362 (3·4%) participants assigned to evening treatment (0·69 events [95% CI 0·62-0·76] per 100 patient-years) and 390 (3·7%) assigned to morning treatment (0·72 events [95% CI 0·65-0·79] per 100 patient-years; unadjusted hazard ratio 0·95 [95% CI 0·83-1·10]; p=0·53). No safety concerns were identified. INTERPRETATION: Evening dosing of usual antihypertensive medication was not different from morning dosing in terms of major cardiovascular outcomes. Patients can be advised that they can take their regular antihypertensive medications at a convenient time that minimises any undesirable effects. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation.

Harmonization of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension Blood Pressure/Hypertension Guidelines.

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension clinical practice guidelines for management of high blood pressure/hypertension are influential documents. Both guidelines are comprehensive, were developed using rigorous processes, and underwent extensive peer review. The most notable difference between the 2 guidelines is the blood pressure cut points recommended for the diagnosis of hypertension. There are also differences in the timing and intensity of treatment, with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline recommending a somewhat more intensive approach. Overall, there is substantial concordance in the recommendations provided by the 2 guideline-writing committees, with greater congruity between them than their predecessors. Additional harmonization of future guidelines would help to underscore the commonality of their core recommendations and could serve to catalyze changes in practice that would lead to improved prevention, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, worldwide.

Hypertension in children and adolescents.

Definition and management of arterial hypertension in children and adolescents are uncertain, due to different positions of current guidelines. The European Society of Cardiology task-force, constituted by Associations and Councils with interest in arterial hypertension, has reviewed current literature and evidence, to produce a Consensus Document focused on aspects of hypertension in the age range of 6-16 years, including definition, methods of measurement of blood pressure, clinical evaluation, assessment of hypertension-mediated target organ damage, evaluation of possible vascular, renal and hormonal causes, assessment and management of concomitant risk factors with specific attention for obesity, and anti-hypertensive strategies, especially focused on life-style modifications. The Consensus Panel also suggests aspects that should be studied with high priority, including generation of multi-ethnic sex, age and height specific European normative tables, implementation of randomized clinical trials on different diagnostic and therapeutic aspects, and long-term cohort studies to link with adult cardiovascular risk. Finally, suggestions for the successful implementation of the contents of the present Consensus document are also given.

Mortality risk prediction of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in suspected acute coronary syndrome: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the use of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) as a biomarker for selecting patients for advanced cardiovascular (CV) therapies in the modern era. The prognostic value of mildly elevated hsCRP beyond troponin in a large real-world cohort of unselected patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is unknown. We evaluated whether a mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) was associated with mortality risk, beyond troponin level, in patients with suspected ACS. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative data of 257,948 patients with suspected ACS who had a troponin measured at 5 cardiac centres in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2017. Patients were divided into 4 hsCRP groups (<2, 2 to 4.9, 5 to 9.9, and 10 to 15 mg/L). The main outcome measure was mortality within 3 years of index presentation. The association between hsCRP levels and all-cause mortality was assessed using multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, haemoglobin, white cell count (WCC), platelet count, creatinine, and troponin. Following the exclusion criteria, there were 102,337 patients included in the analysis (hsCRP <2 mg/L (n = 38,390), 2 to 4.9 mg/L (n = 27,397), 5 to 9.9 mg/L (n = 26,957), and 10 to 15 mg/L (n = 9,593)). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, there was a positive and graded relationship between hsCRP level and mortality at baseline, which remained at 3 years (hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of 1.32 (1.18 to 1.48) for those with hsCRP 2.0 to 4.9 mg/L and 1.40 (1.26 to 1.57) and 2.00 (1.75 to 2.28) for those with hsCRP 5 to 9.9 mg/L and 10 to 15 mg/L, respectively. This relationship was independent of troponin in all suspected ACS patients and was further verified in those who were confirmed to have an ACS diagnosis by clinical coding. The main limitation of our study is that we did not have data on underlying cause of death; however, the exclusion of those with abnormal WCC or hsCRP levels >15 mg/L makes it unlikely that sepsis was a major contributor. CONCLUSIONS: These multicentre, real-world data from a large cohort of patients with suspected ACS suggest that mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) may be a clinically meaningful prognostic marker beyond troponin and point to its potential utility in selecting patients for novel treatments targeting inflammation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT03507309.

Association between exercise frequency with renal and cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic and non-diabetic individuals at high cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend physical activity to reduce cardiovascular (CV) events. The association between physical activity and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with and without diabetes is unknown. We assessed the association of self-reported physical activity with renal and CV outcomes in high-risk patients aged ≥ 55 years over a median follow-up of 56 months in post-hoc analysis of a previously randomized trial program. METHODS: Analyses were done with Cox regression analysis, mixed models for repeated measures, ANOVA and χ2-test. 31,312 patients, among them 19,664 with and 11,648 without diabetes were analyzed. RESULTS: Physical activity was inversely associated with renal outcomes (doubling of creatinine, end-stage kidney disease (ESRD)) and CV outcomes (CV death, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure hospitalization). Moderate activity (at least 2 times/week to every day) was associated with lower risk of renal outcomes and lower incidence of new albuminuria (p < 0.0001 for both) compared to lower exercise levels. Similar results were observed for those with and without diabetes without interaction for renal outcomes (p = 0.097-0.27). Physical activity was associated with reduced eGFR decline with a moderate association between activity and diabetes status (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate physical activity was associated with improved kidney outcomes with a threshold at two sessions per week. The association of physical activity with renal outcomes did not meaningfully differ with or without diabetes but absolute benefit of activity was even greater in people with diabetes. Thus, risks were similar between those with diabetes undertaking high physical activity and those without diabetes but low physical activity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://clinicaltrials.gov.uniqueidentifier :NCT00153101.

Analysis of the impact of sex and age on the variation in the prevalence of antinuclear autoantibodies in Polish population: a nationwide observational, cross-sectional study.

The detection of antinuclear autoantibody (ANA) is dependent on many factors and varies between the populations. The aim of the study was first to assess the prevalence of ANA in the Polish adult population depending on age, sex and the cutoff threshold used for the results obtained. Second, we estimated the occurrence of individual types of ANA-staining patterns. We tested 1731 patient samples using commercially available IIFA using two cutoff thresholds of 1:100 and 1:160. We found ANA in 260 participants (15.0%), but the percentage of positive results strongly depended on the cutoff level. For a cutoff threshold 1:100, the positive population was 19.5% and for the 1:160 cutoff threshold, it was 11.7%. The most prevalent ANA-staining pattern was AC-2 Dense Fine speckled (50%), followed by AC-21 Reticular/AMA (14.38%) ANA more common in women (72%); 64% of ANA-positive patients were over 50 years of age. ANA prevalence in the Polish population is at a level observed in other highly developed countries and is more prevalent in women and elderly individuals. To reduce the number of positive results released, we suggest that Polish laboratories should set 1:160 as the cutoff threshold.

Renal Oxygenation (rSO 2 ) Population Parameter Estimates in Premature Infants Routinely Monitored With Near-Infrared Spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND: Currently, reference ranges for renal oxygenation measured by near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in preterm infants beyond the first days of life are lacking, especially those born prior to 29 weeks' gestation. Population estimates of renal oxygenation (rSO 2 ) levels among preterm infants over time have yet to be established, leading to reluctance in clinical application. PURPOSE: To characterize the distribution and estimate population parameters for renal oxygenation measured by NIRS during the first 14 days of life among preterm infants. METHODS: We prospectively observed rSO 2 trends of 37 infants before 34 weeks' gestation and 1800-g or less birth weight for the first 14 days of life. Analyses included distribution fit tests, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and t tests. RESULTS: Average daily rSO 2 variation steadily increased with 42% difference through the first 14 days of life. For all infants, renal rSO 2 means peaked during the first 3 days of life and plateaued around 7 days. Daily rSO 2 slopes were significantly lower among males and infants 29 weeks' or less gestation. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Renal rSO 2 during the first 14 days of life reflects normal extrauterine transition reaching stabilization around 7 days of life. Gestational age, birth weight, and gender may predict the early trajectory of rSO 2 patterns. Population estimates provide parameters for renal rSO 2 that may indicate early-onset tissue hypoxia when acute or significant drops from baseline occur. IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH: We present a framework to guide future research using renal NIRS technology in preterm infants to determine deviations from expected trends that may precede renal injury.

Ensemble-Based Bounding Box Regression for Enhanced Knuckle Localization.

The knuckle creases present on the dorsal side of the human hand can play significant role in identifying the offenders of serious crime, especially when evidence images of more recognizable biometric traits, such as the face, are not available. These knuckle creases, if localized appropriately, can result in improved identification ability. This is attributed to ambient inclusion of the creases and minimal effect of background, which lead to quality and discerning feature extraction. This paper presents an ensemble approach, utilizing multiple object detector frameworks, to localize the knuckle regions in a functionally appropriate way. The approach leverages from the individual capabilities of the popular object detectors and provide a more comprehensive knuckle region localization. The investigations are completed with two large-scale public hand databases which consist of hand-dorsal images with varying backgrounds and finger positioning. In addition to that, effectiveness of the proposed approach is also tested with a novel proprietary unconstrained multi-ethnic hand dorsal dataset to evaluate its generalizability. Several novel performance metrics are tailored to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed knuckle localization approach. These metrics aim to measure the veracity of the detected knuckle regions in terms of their relation with the ground truth. The comparison of the proposed approach with individual object detectors and a state-of-the-art hand keypoint detector clearly establishes the outperforming nature of the proposed approach. The generalization of the proposed approach is also corroborated through the cross-dataset framework.

Polygenic risk scores predict diabetes complications and their response to intensive blood pressure and glucose control.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes increases the risk of cardiovascular and renal complications, but early risk prediction could lead to timely intervention and better outcomes. Genetic information can be used to enable early detection of risk. METHODS: We developed a multi-polygenic risk score (multiPRS) that combines ten weighted PRSs (10 wPRS) composed of 598 SNPs associated with main risk factors and outcomes of type 2 diabetes, derived from summary statistics data of genome-wide association studies. The 10 wPRS, first principal component of ethnicity, sex, age at onset and diabetes duration were included into one logistic regression model to predict micro- and macrovascular outcomes in 4098 participants in the ADVANCE study and 17,604 individuals with type 2 diabetes in the UK Biobank study. RESULTS: The model showed a similar predictive performance for cardiovascular and renal complications in different cohorts. It identified the top 30% of ADVANCE participants with a mean of 3.1-fold increased risk of major micro- and macrovascular events (p = 6.3 × 10-21 and p = 9.6 × 10-31, respectively) and a 4.4-fold (p = 6.8 × 10-33) higher risk of cardiovascular death. While in ADVANCE overall, combined intensive blood pressure and glucose control decreased cardiovascular death by 24%, the model identified a high-risk group in whom it decreased the mortality rate by 47%, and a low-risk group in whom it had no discernible effect. High-risk individuals had the greatest absolute risk reduction with a number needed to treat of 12 to prevent one cardiovascular death over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This novel multiPRS model stratified individuals with type 2 diabetes according to risk of complications and helped to target earlier those who would receive greater benefit from intensive therapy.

The innate immune receptor MDA5 limits rotavirus infection but promotes cell death and pancreatic inflammation.

Melanoma differentiation-associated protein 5 (MDA5) mediates the innate immune response to viral infection. Polymorphisms in IFIH1, the gene coding for MDA5, correlate with the risk of developing type 1 diabetes (T1D). Here, we demonstrate that MDA5 is crucial for the immune response to enteric rotavirus infection, a proposed etiological agent for T1D. MDA5 variants encoded by minor IFIH1 alleles associated with lower T1D risk exhibit reduced activity against rotavirus infection. We find that MDA5 activity limits rotavirus infection not only through the induction of antiviral interferons and pro-inflammatory cytokines, but also by promoting cell death. Importantly, this MDA5-dependent antiviral response is specific to the pancreas of rotavirus-infected mice, similar to the autoimmunity associated with T1D. These findings imply that MDA5-induced cell death and inflammation in the pancreas facilitate progression to autoimmune destruction of pancreatic ß-cells.

Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK-CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation. FINDINGS: We included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41-4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0. INTERPRETATION: We provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK.

Invasive versus non-invasive management of older patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (SENIOR-NSTEMI): a cohort study based on routine clinical data.

BACKGROUND: Previous trials suggest lower long-term risk of mortality after invasive rather than non-invasive management of patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but the trials excluded very elderly patients. We aimed to estimate the effect of invasive versus non-invasive management within 3 days of peak troponin concentration on the survival of patients aged 80 years or older with NSTEMI. METHODS: Routine clinical data for this study were obtained from five collaborating hospitals hosting NIHR Biomedical Research Centres in the UK (all tertiary centres with emergency departments). Eligible patients were 80 years old or older when they underwent troponin measurements and were diagnosed with NSTEMI between 2010 (2008 for University College Hospital) and 2017. Propensity scores (patients' estimated probability of receiving invasive management) based on pretreatment variables were derived using logistic regression; patients with high probabilities of non-invasive or invasive management were excluded. Patients who died within 3 days of peak troponin concentration without receiving invasive management were assigned to the invasive or non-invasive management groups based on their propensity scores, to mitigate immortal time bias. We estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing invasive with non-invasive management, and compared the rate of hospital admissions for heart failure. FINDINGS: Of the 1976 patients with NSTEMI, 101 died within 3 days of their peak troponin concentration and 375 were excluded because of extreme propensity scores. The remaining 1500 patients had a median age of 86 (IQR 82-89) years of whom (845 [56%] received non-invasive management. During median follow-up of 3·0 (IQR 1·2-4·8) years, 613 (41%) patients died. The adjusted cumulative 5-year mortality was 36% in the invasive management group and 55% in the non-invasive management group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·55-0·84). Invasive management was associated with lower incidence of hospital admissions for heart failure (adjusted rate ratio compared with non-invasive management 0·67, 95% CI 0·48-0·93). INTERPRETATION: The survival advantage of invasive compared with non-invasive management appears to extend to patients with NSTEMI who are aged 80 years or older. FUNDING: NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative.

Relationship between Clinic and Ambulatory Blood-Pressure Measurements and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the influence of ambulatory blood pressure on prognosis derives mainly from population-based studies and a few relatively small clinical investigations. This study examined the associations of blood pressure measured in the clinic (clinic blood pressure) and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of patients in primary care. METHODS: We analyzed data from a registry-based, multicenter, national cohort that included 63,910 adults recruited from 2004 through 2014 in Spain. Clinic and 24-hour ambulatory blood-pressure data were examined in the following categories: sustained hypertension (elevated clinic and elevated 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure), "white-coat" hypertension (elevated clinic and normal 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure), masked hypertension (normal clinic and elevated 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure), and normotension (normal clinic and normal 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure). Analyses were conducted with Cox regression models, adjusted for clinic and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressures and for confounders. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 3808 patients died from any cause, and 1295 of these patients died from cardiovascular causes. In a model that included both 24-hour and clinic measurements, 24-hour systolic pressure was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.58 per 1-SD increase in pressure; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56 to 1.60, after adjustment for clinic blood pressure) than the clinic systolic pressure (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.04, after adjustment for 24-hour blood pressure). Corresponding hazard ratios per 1-SD increase in pressure were 1.55 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.57, after adjustment for clinic and daytime blood pressures) for nighttime ambulatory systolic pressure and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.52 to 1.56, after adjustment for clinic and nighttime blood pressures) for daytime ambulatory systolic pressure. These relationships were consistent across subgroups of age, sex, and status with respect to obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and antihypertensive treatment. Masked hypertension was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 2.83; 95% CI, 2.12 to 3.79) than sustained hypertension (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.41 to 2.31) or white-coat hypertension (hazard ratio, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.38 to 2.32). Results for cardiovascular mortality were similar to those for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Ambulatory blood-pressure measurements were a stronger predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than clinic blood-pressure measurements. White-coat hypertension was not benign, and masked hypertension was associated with a greater risk of death than sustained hypertension. (Funded by the Spanish Society of Hypertension and others.).

Regulation of actin dynamics by protein kinase R control of gelsolin enforces basal innate immune defense.

Primary resistance to pathogens is reliant on both basal and inducible immune defenses. To date, research has focused upon inducible innate immune responses. In contrast to resistance via cytokine induction, basal defense mechanisms are less evident. Here we showed that the antiviral protein kinase R (PKR) inhibited the key actin-modifying protein gelsolin to regulate actin dynamics and control cytoskeletal cellular functions under homeostatic conditions. Through this mechanism, PKR controlled fundamental innate immune, actin-dependent processes that included membrane ruffling and particle engulfment. Accordingly, PKR counteracted viral entry into the cell. These findings identify a layer of host resistance, showing that the regulation of actin-modifying proteins during the innate immune response bolsters first-line defense against intracellular pathogens and has a sustained effect on virus production. Moreover, these data provide proof of principle for a concept in which the cell cytoskeleton could be targeted to elicit broad antiviral protection.