Reducing Hospital Capacity Needs for Seasonal Respiratory Infections: The Case of Switching to High-Dose Influenza Vaccine for Dutch Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: Influenza is responsible for considerable health and economic burden every year. Especially older adults are vulnerable for influenza infection and its complications due to immunosenescence and often-underlying medical conditions. Recently, the innovative quadrivalent high-dose influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) has become available in Europe. Through its enhanced immunogenicity, QIV-HD offers improved protection for older adults against respiratory as well as cardiovascular complications. We estimated the potential impact-specifically in terms of hospital admissions and related costs-of a hypothetical past switch from QIV-Standard dose (SD) to QIV-HD in The Netherlands. METHODS: Estimates of hospitalizations for the older adults vaccinated with QIV-SD were derived from the seasons 2010/2011-2017/2018. Subsequently, the number of respiratory infections and cardiovascular complications of influenza were estimated for the year 2019/2020 for both QIV-SD and QIV-HD. To calculate the overall corresponding savings, costs for hospital complications, derived from literature, were used. RESULTS: When QIV-HD would have been used instead of QIV-SD during the season 2019/2020, an additional 220 hospitalizations would have been averted among older adults of 60 years and older in the Netherlands. This corresponds to savings of €1 219 779 (uncertainty interval: 1 089 813-1 348 549), of which 69% is attributable to cardiovascular-related hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that a relevant improvement in influenza vaccination among older adults in The Netherlands can be achieved by switching from the current QIV-SD to QIV-HD. Not only comes a switch from QIV-SD to QIV-HD with a significant reduction in pressure on hospital capacity but also with notable cost savings.

First-in-Human Phase I Clinical Trial of an SFV-Based RNA Replicon Cancer Vaccine against HPV-Induced Cancers.

A first-in-human phase I trial of Vvax001, an alphavirus-based therapeutic cancer vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cancers was performed assessing immunological activity, safety, and tolerability. Vvax001 consists of replication-incompetent Semliki Forest virus replicon particles encoding HPV16-derived antigens E6 and E7. Twelve participants with a history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia were included. Four cohorts of three participants were treated per dose level, ranging from 5 × 105 to 2.5 × 108 infectious particles per immunization. The participants received three immunizations with a 3-week interval. For immune monitoring, blood was drawn before immunization and 1 week after the second and third immunization. Immunization with Vvax001 was safe and well tolerated, with only mild injection site reactions, and resulted in both CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses against E6 and E7 antigens. Even the lowest dose of 5 × 105 infectious particles elicited E6/E7-specific interferon (IFN)-γ responses in all three participants in this cohort. Overall, immunization resulted in positive vaccine-induced immune responses in 12 of 12 participants in one or more assays performed. In conclusion, Vvax001 was safe and induced immune responses in all participants. These data strongly support further clinical evaluation of Vvax001 as a therapeutic vaccine in patients with HPV-related malignancies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pediatric Influenza Vaccination in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of extending the Dutch influenza vaccination program for elderly and medical high-risk groups to include pediatric influenza vaccination, taking indirect protection into account. METHODS: An age-structured dynamic transmission model was used that was calibrated to influenza-associated GP visits over 4 seasons (2010-2011 to 2013-2014). The clinical and economic impact of different pediatric vaccination strategies were compared over 20 years, varying the targeted age range, the vaccine type for children or elderly and high-risk groups. Outcome measures include averted symptomatic infections and deaths, societal costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 4% and 1.5% annually. RESULTS: At an assumed coverage of 50%, adding pediatric vaccination for 2- to 17-year-olds with quadrivalent live-attenuated vaccine to the current vaccination program for elderly and medical high-groups with quadrivalent inactivated vaccine was estimated to avert, on average, 401 820 symptomatic cases and 72 deaths per year. Approximately half of averted symptomatic cases and 99% of averted deaths were prevented in other age groups than 2- to 17-year-olds due to herd immunity. The cumulative discounted 20-year economic impact was 35 068 QALYs gained and €1687 million saved, that is, the intervention was cost-saving. This vaccination strategy had the highest probability of being the most cost-effective strategy considered, dominating pediatric strategies targeting 2- to 6-year-olds or 2- to 12-year-olds or strategies with trivalent inactivated vaccine. CONCLUSION: Modeling indicates that introducing pediatric influenza vaccination in The Netherlands is cost-saving, reducing the influenza-related disease burden substantially.

Factors associated with the uptake of newly introduced childhood vaccinations in Ethiopia: the cases of rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Childhood immunization programmes have made substantial contributions to lowering the burden of disease among children in developing countries, however a large proportion of children still remain unimmunized. This study aimed to explore the determinants of rotavirus vaccine (RVV) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) uptake in Ethiopia. METHODS: The 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey dataset was used in this analysis. A total of 2004 children aged 12-23 months were included in the analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to identify the determinants of uptake of the complete schedules of RVV (two doses) and PCV (three doses). Crude and adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: The uptakes of the complete schedules of RVV and PCV among children aged 12-23 months were 56 and 49.1%, respectively. The likelihood of immunization with the complete schedule of RVV was significantly lower among children from the relatively poor Afar region in Ethiopia (AOR 0.16; 95%-CI 0.04-0.61). Similarly, children living in not only the Afar region (AOR 0.10; 95%-CI 0.03-0.38), but also the Gambela region (AOR 0.25; 95%-CI 0.08-0.83), were less likely to be vaccinated with PCV. On the other hand, children from more wealthy households had higher odds of vaccination with RVV (AOR 1.69; 95%-CI 1.04-2.75). Also attending antenatal care (ANC) was found to be significantly associated with uptake of the complete schedule of RVV and PCV. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of RVV and PCV is suboptimal in Ethiopia. The uptake of the vaccines were found to be associated with region, ANC use and wealth status.

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination of immunocompetent older adults against herpes zoster in the Netherlands: a comparison between the adjuvanted subunit and live-attenuated vaccines.

BACKGROUND: The newly registered adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine (HZ/su) has a higher efficacy than the available live-attenuated vaccine (ZVL). National decision-makers soon need to decide whether to introduce HZ/su or to prefer HZ/su above ZVL. METHODS: Using a Markov model with a decision tree, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination with HZ/su (two doses within 2 months) or zoster vaccine live (ZVL) (single dose, or single dose with a booster after 10 years) for cohorts of 50-, 60-, 70- or 80-year-olds in the Netherlands. The model was parameterized using vaccine efficacy data from randomized clinical trials and up-to-date incidence, costs and health-related quality of life data from national datasets. We used a time horizon of 15 years, and the analysis was conducted from the societal perspective. RESULTS: At a coverage of 50%, vaccination with two doses of HZ/su was estimated to prevent 4335 to 10,896 HZ cases, depending on the cohort age. In comparison, this reduction was estimated at 400-4877 for ZVL and 427-6466 for ZVL with a booster. The maximum vaccine cost per series of HZ/su to remain cost-effective to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained ranged from €109.09 for 70-year-olds to €63.68 for 50-year-olds. The cost-effectiveness of ZVL changed considerably by age, with corresponding maximum vaccine cost per dose ranging from €51.37 for 60-year-olds to €0.73 for 80-year-olds. Adding a ZVL booster after 10 years would require a substantial reduction of the maximum cost per dose to remain cost-effective as compared to ZVL single dose. Sensitivity analyses on the vaccine cost demonstrated that there were scenarios in which vaccination with either HZ/su (two doses), ZVL single dose or ZVL + booster could be the most cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy with two doses of HZ/su was superior in reducing the burden of HZ as compared to a single dose or single dose + booster of ZVL. Both vaccines could potentially be cost-effective to a conventional Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold for preventive interventions. However, whether HZ/su or ZVL would be the most cost-effective alternative depends largely on the vaccine cost.

Immunogenicity and safety of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Asian populations from six countries: a meta-analysis.

Cervical cancer is a serious public-health problem in Asian countries. Since human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the main risk factor for cervical cancer, HPV vaccination is considered a promising strategy to prevent cervical cancer. However, comprehensive immunogenicity and safety information for Asian populations is lacking. We searched four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and clinicaltrials.gov. We reviewed selected manuscripts and extracted the pooled relative risk (RR) from immunogenicity and safety information on HPV vaccination among women in Asian countries. We identified two quadrivalent-vaccine studies and eight bivalent-vaccine studies conducted in Asian countries. Analysis across these studies suggested that the HPV vaccines significantly enhanced HPV16- and HPV18-specific antibody among both uninfected (RR 85.69; 95% confidence interval (CI) 31.51-233.04 and 62.77; 95% CI 37.4-105.51) and infected individuals (RR 8.60; 95% CI 6.95-10.64 and RR 8.13; 95% CI 5.96-11.11). Furthermore, HPV vaccination among Asian populations has a favorable safety profile, with only slightly higher risks of local (RR: 1.89; 95% CI 1.65-2.17) and systemic (RR: 1.33; 95% CI 1.18-1.50) adverse events in vaccinated individuals compared with controls. For Asian populations, HPV vaccines enhance the level of HPV16- and HPV18-specific antibodies for both uninfected and infected individuals. Also, the risk of adverse events related to vaccination are acceptable. More data are needed to establish vaccine efficacy with regard to prevention of HPV infection and further outcomes including cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cervical cancer.

Cost of Illness Analysis of Invasive Meningococcal Disease Caused by Neisseria Meningitidis Serogroup B in the Netherlands-a Holistic Approach.

INTRODUCTION: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by Neisseria meningitidis is a rapidly progressing, rare disease that often presents as meningitis or sepsis. It mostly affects infants and adolescents, with high fatality rates or long-term sequelae. In the Netherlands, serogroup B (MenB) is most prevalent. We aimed to estimate the economic burden of MenB-related IMD between 2015 and 2019, including direct and indirect medical costs from short- and long-term sequelae, from a societal perspective. METHODS: IMD incidence was based on laboratory-based case numbers from the Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis (Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, the Netherlands); there were 74 MenB cases on average per year in the study period 2015-2019. Case-fatality rate (3.8%) and percentage of patients discharged with sequelae (46%) were derived from literature. Direct costs included treatment costs of the acute phase, long-term sequelae, and public health response. Indirect costs were calculated using the human capital (HCA) and friction costs (FCA) approaches, in which productivity losses were estimated for patients and parents during the acute and sequelae phases. Costs were discounted by 4% yearly. RESULTS: Estimated costs due to MenB IMD in an annual cohort were €3,094,199 with FCA and €9,480,764 with HCA. Direct costs amounted to €2,974,996, of which 75.2% were related to sequelae. Indirect costs related to sequelae were €52,532 with FCA and €5,220,398 with HCA. CONCLUSION: Our analysis reflects the high economic burden of MenB-related IMD in the Netherlands. Sequelae costs represent a high proportion of the total costs. Societal costs were dependent on the applied approach (FCA or HCA).

Inclusion of the benefits of enhanced cross-protection against cervical cancer and prevention of genital warts in the cost-effectiveness analysis of human papillomavirus vaccination in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Infection with HPV 16 and 18, the major causative agents of cervical cancer, can be prevented through vaccination with a bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine. Both vaccines provide cross-protection against HPV-types not included in the vaccines. In particular, the bivalent vaccine provides additional protection against HPV 31, 33, and 45 and the quadrivalent vaccine against HPV31. The quadrivalent vaccine additionally protects against low-risk HPV type 6 and 11, responsible for most cases of genital warts. In this study, we made an analytical comparison of the two vaccines in terms of cost-effectiveness including the additional benefits of cross-protection and protection against genital warts in comparison with a screening-only strategy. METHODS: We used a Markov model, simulating the progression from HPV infection to cervical cancer or genital warts. The model was used to estimate the difference in future costs and health effects of both HPV-vaccines separately. RESULTS: In a cohort of 100,000 women, use of the bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine (both at 50% vaccination coverage) reduces the cervical cancer incidence by 221 and 207 cases, corresponding to ICERs of €17,600/QALY and €18,900/QALY, respectively. It was estimated that the quadrivalent vaccine additionally prevents 4390 cases of genital warts, reducing the ICER to €16,300/QALY. Assuming a comparable willingness to pay for cancer and genital warts prevention, the difference in ICERs could justify a slightly higher price (~7% per dose) in favor of the quadrivalent vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Clearly, HPV vaccination has been implemented for the prevention of cervical cancer. From this perspective, use of the bivalent HPV vaccine appears to be most effective and cost-effective. Including the benefits of prevention against genital warts, the ICER of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine was found to be slightly more favourable. However, current decision-making on the introduction of HPV is driven by the primary cervical cancer outcome. New vaccine tenders could consider the benefits of cross-protection and the benefits of genital warts, which requires more balanced decision-making.

GLA-SE, a synthetic toll-like receptor 4 agonist, enhances T-cell responses to influenza vaccine in older adults.

BACKGROUND: The decline in influenza vaccine efficacy in older adults is associated with a limited ability of current split-virus vaccines (SVVs) to stimulate cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses required for clinical protection against influenza. METHODS: The Toll-like receptor 4 agonist glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant-stable emulsion (GLA-SE) was combined with SVV to stimulate peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in vitro to determine the cytokine response in dendritic cell subsets. Stimulated PBMCs were then challenged with live influenza virus to mimic the response to natural infection following vaccination, using previously identified T-cell correlates of protection. RESULTS: GLA-SE significantly increased the proportion of myeloid dendritic cells that produced tumor necrosis factor α, interleukin 6, and interleukin 12. When combined with SVV to stimulate PBMCs in vitro, this effect of GLA-SE was shown to regulate a T-helper 1 cell response upon challenge with live influenza virus; interleukin 10 production was suppressed, thus significantly increasing the interferon γ to interleukin 10 ratio and the cytolytic (granzyme B) response to influenza virus challenge, both of which have been shown to correlate with protection against influenza in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a novel adjuvant, GLA-SE, combined with standard SVV has the potential to significantly improve vaccine-mediated protection against influenza in older adults.

Nanoaggregates of micropurified lipopolysaccharide identified using dynamic light scattering, zeta potential measurement, and TLR4 signaling activity.

Nanoaggregates composed of selected glycoforms from Escherichia coli 055:B5 lipopolysaccharide (LPS) were prepared by combining sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS)-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, zinc-imidazole reverse staining, zinc chelation after cutting gel slices, elution with either 0.5% triethylamine (TEA) or 0.4% to 0.5% surfactant (SDS or deoxycholate [DOC]) from extrusion-generated gel microparticles, and centrifugal diafiltration after appropriate surfactant dilution. Dynamic light scattering allows detecting these aggregates, giving a size distribution from 10 to 100nm in diameter. The formation of the aggregates prepared with selected DOC-eluted LPS glycoforms was notably improved over those prepared with TEA-eluted glycoforms. As the O-side chain length increased in the composition of the former aggregates, there was a gradual decrease in the electrophoretic mobility (from -1.2 to 0.0110(-8)m(2)/Vs), giving a calculated zeta potential from -15 to 0.1mV at pH6.8. These aggregates were further characterized for their abilities to elicit agonistic effects on human Toll-like receptor 4, as shown by in vitro activation of nuclear factor kappa light chain enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB) in engineered HEK293 cells.

On discounting of health gains from human papillomavirus vaccination: effects of different approaches.

OBJECTIVES: Discounting has long been a matter of controversy in the field of health economic evaluations. How to weigh future health effects has resulted in ongoing discussions. These discussions are imminently relevant for health care interventions with current costs but future benefits. Different approaches to discount health effects have been proposed. In this study, we estimated the impact of different approaches for discounting health benefits of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. METHODS: An HPV model was used to estimate the impact of different discounting approaches on the present value of health effects. For the constant discount approaches, we varied the discount rate for health effects ranging from 0% to 4%. Next, the impact of relevant alternative discounting approaches was estimated, including hyperbolic, proportional, stepwise, and time-shifted discounting. RESULTS: The present value of health effects gained through HPV vaccination varied strongly when varying discount rates and approaches. The application of the current Dutch guidelines resulted in a present value of health effects that was eight or two times higher than that produced when using the proportional discounting approach or when using the internationally more common 4% discount rate for health effects, respectively. Obviously, such differences translate into large variations in corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. CONCLUSION: The exact discount rate and approach chosen in an economic evaluation importantly impact the projected value of health benefits of HPV vaccination. Investigating alternative discounting approaches in health-economic analysis is important, especially for vaccination programs yielding health effects far into the future. Our study underlines the relevance of ongoing discussions on how and at what rates to discount.

Comparatively low attendance during Human Papillomavirus catch-up vaccination among teenage girls in the Netherlands: Insights from a behavioral survey among parents.

BACKGROUND: The Dutch Human Papillomavirus (HPV) catch-up vaccination program in 2009 appeared less successful than expected. We aimed to identify the most important determinants of refusing the vaccination. METHODS: Two thousand parents of girls born in 1996 targeted for HPV vaccination received an invitation letter to participate in a questionnaire study. Two study groups were defined: the first group consisted of parents of girls who had accepted the vaccine and already received the first dose of HPV vaccination. The second group consisted of parents whose daughters were not vaccinated. The questionnaire consisted of a broad spectrum of possible determinants that were revealed after literature search and discussions with the stakeholders. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty nine questionnaires (24%) were returned, 307 (31%) from those who accepted and 162 (16%) from those who declined the vaccine. The decision not to accept the vaccine was largely determined by: (i) perception that the information provided by the government about the vaccine was limited or biased (OR 13.27); (ii) limited trust, that the government would stop the vaccination program if there were serious side effects (OR 9.95); (iii) lack of knowledge about the effectiveness of the vaccine (OR 7.67); (iv) concerns about the side effects of the vaccine (OR 4.94); (v) lack of conviction that HPV can be extremely harmful (OR 3.78); (vi) perception that the government is strongly influenced by vaccine producers (OR 3.54); and (vii) religious convictions (OR 2.18). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed several determinants for HPV vaccination uptake after implementation of the HPV vaccine for adolescent girls. These determinants should be taken into consideration in order to successfully implement HPV vaccination into National Immunization Programs.

Until which age should women be vaccinated against HPV infection? Recommendation based on cost-effectiveness analyses.

INTRODUCTION: Cervical cancer is caused by infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). Several countries have implemented vaccination programs against HPV for teenage girls before sexual debut. However, recent clinical trials have demonstrated that vaccination of older women is highly effective as well. Accordingly, it has been suggested that these older women should also be offered vaccination. Here, the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for older women was assessed. METHODS: A Markov model was used to estimate age-specific health benefits and cost savings of HPV vaccination for women 12-50 years of age, in the Netherlands. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the outcomes. State-of-the-art health-economic methods were used, and international health-economic guidelines were followed. RESULTS: HPV vaccination is highly cost-effective for girls aged 12-16 years. Remarkably, cost-effectiveness only slowly declines with increasing age of the vaccinees up to 25 years. Indeed, substantial health benefits can be obtained by vaccinating women in this age group at acceptable costs. Beyond this age, cost-effectiveness of HPV-vaccination rapidly declines. CONCLUSIONS: Not only HPV vaccination of girls before sexual debut is a highly effective and cost-effective strategy for prevention of cervical cancer, but also vaccination of women until the age of 25 years is generally cost-effective.

[Rotavirus vaccination for all Dutch infants]. / Rotavirusvaccinatie voor alle jonge kinderen.

Recently, the Netherlands Health Council (HC) issued an updated advice on rotavirus vaccination. Rotavirus gastro-enteritis primarily affects young children, of whom, in the Netherlands, annually ~2700 end up in the hospital and 5-7 die. In 2017, the HC judged positively on rotavirus vaccination of young children, but also concluded that the cost-effectiveness of general vaccination was unfavorable. Yet, the HC recommended to at least vaccinate vulnerable children in specific risk-groups. Because of the corona crisis, this, however, has not materialized. Meanwhile, the Dutch Risk-group Infant Vaccination Against Rotavirus study has demonstrated that rotavirus vaccination of children in risk-groups is less effective than previously thought. Therefore, the HC now recommends rotavirus vaccination of all children. General vaccination within the Dutch NIP is expected to result in herd-immunity, such that all children, including those in risk-groups, are protected. Nonetheless, the Dutch Ministry of Health has decided to postpone implementation of rotavirus vaccination.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands; the results of a consensus model.

BACKGROUND: Each year rotavirus gastroenteritis results in thousands of paediatric hospitalisations and primary care visits in the Netherlands. While two vaccines against rotavirus are registered, routine immunisation of infants has not yet been implemented. Existing cost-effectiveness studies showed inconsistent results for these vaccines because of lack of consensus on the impact. We aimed to investigate which factors had a major impact on cost-effectiveness and were primarily responsible for the large differences in previously estimated cost-effectiveness ratios. METHODS: Based on updated data on health outcomes and cost estimates, we re-assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine paediatric rotavirus vaccination within the National Immunization Program for the Netherlands. Two consensus meetings were organised with national and international experts in the field to achieve consensus and resolve potential controversies. RESULTS: It was estimated that rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands could avert 34,214 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children aged less than 5 years. Notably, 2,779 hospitalisations were averted of which 315 were extensions of existing hospital stays due to nosocomial rotavirus infection. With a threshold varying from 20K € - 50K € per QALY and according to the base-case scenario, the full vaccination costs per child leading to cost-effectiveness was € 57.76 -€ 77.71. Results were sensitive to the inclusion of potential vaccine induced herd protection, QALY losses and number of deaths associated with rotavirus gastroenteritis. CONCLUSIONS: Our economic analysis indicates that inclusion of rotavirus vaccination in the Dutch National Immunization Program might be cost-effective depending on the cost of the vaccine and the impact of rotavirus gastroenteritis on children's quality of life.

[Influenza vaccination: the Netherlands Health Council missed opportunities]. / De griepprik.

Older adults may suffer from severe sequelae of influenza, including not only respiratory but also cardiovascular complications. Innovative influenza vaccines, such as a high-dose vaccine, offer improved protection for the elderly population. Evidence for the enhanced effectiveness and potential cost savings of these vaccines stems from clinical trials and large observational studies, and several countries already recommend their use. Nonetheless, the Netherlands Health Council, in its recent recommendation, judges that the scientific evidence for added value of these improved vaccines is insufficient. Following the recommendation of the WHO of 2012, the council now does include pregnant women in the target groups for influenza vaccination, primarily to improve indirect protection of newborn children. However, judging that the burden of influenza disease among children is relatively modest, the council does not recommend to include healthy children, despite available evidence for favourable effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of paediatric flu vaccination with a live-attenuated vaccine.

Rotavirus Vaccination of Infants Delayed and Limited within the National Immunization Programme in the Netherlands: An Opportunity Lost.

In this study, we estimated the benefits of rotavirus vaccination for infants had the rotavirus vaccine been introduced in the Netherlands as of its market authorization in 2006. An age-structured, deterministic cohort model was developed to simulate different birth cohorts over a period of 15 years from 2006 until 2021, comparing both universal and targeted high-risk group vaccination to no vaccination. Different scenarios for the duration of protection (5 or 7 years) and herd immunity (only for universal vaccination) were analyzed. All birth cohorts together included 2.6 million infants, of which 7.9% were high-risk individuals, and an additional 13.2 million children between 1-15 years born prior to the first cohort in 2006. The costs and health outcomes associated with rotavirus vaccination were calculated per model scenario and discounted at 4% and 1.5%, respectively. Our analysis reveals that, had rotavirus vaccination been implemented in 2006, it would have prevented 356,800 (51% decrease) and 32,200 (5% decrease) cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis after universal and targeted vaccination, respectively. Over the last 15 years, this would have led to significant avoided costs and quality-adjusted life year losses for either vaccination strategy with the most favorable outcomes for universal vaccination. Clearly, an opportunity has been lost.

Viral causes of severe acute respiratory infection in hospitalized children and association with outcomes: A two-year prospective surveillance study in Suriname.

BACKGROUND: Viruses are the most frequent cause of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in children. It is currently unknown whether presence of a virus, the number of viruses, or type of virus, are associated with clinical outcomes of pediatric SARI in developing countries. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2014 nasopharyngeal swabs and demographic and clinical variables were prospectively collected for surveillance of viral causes of SARI in Surinamese children within 48 hours after hospitalization. These swabs were tested for 18 respiratory viruses using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) panel to identify the specific viral causes of SARI, unknown to the treating physicians. In post hoc analyses we evaluated if the PCR results, and demographic and clinical characteristics, were associated with course of disease, duration of respiratory support, and length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: Of a total of 316 analyzed children, 290 (92%) had one or more viruses. Rhinovirus/enterovirus (43%) and respiratory syncytial virus (34%) were most prevalent. Course of disease was mild in 234 (74%), moderate in 68 (22%), and severe in 14 (4%) children. Neither presence of a single virus, multiple viruses, or the type of virus, were different between groups. Prematurity and lower weight-for-age-z-score were independent predictors of a severe course of disease, longer duration of respiratory support, and longer LOS. CONCLUSIONS: Viruses are common causes of pediatric SARI in Suriname, yet not necessarily associated with clinical outcomes. In developing countries, demographic and clinical variables can help to identify children at-risk for worse outcome, while PCR testing may be reserved to identify specific viruses, such as influenza, in specific patient groups or during outbreaks.

Requirement of respiratory support in acute bronchiolitis in infants is linked to endothelial and neutrophil activation.

BACKGROUND: Evidence shows that activation of pulmonary vascular endothelium and neutrophils are involved in the pathophysiology of acute bronchiolitis. We hypothesized that levels of markers of endothelial activation and leukocyte counts are associated with requirement and duration of respiratory support. METHODS: Thirty-four infants with bronchiolitis and eight controls were included. Nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples were taken at admission. Serum levels of Angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, sP-selectin, sE-selectin, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and leukocyte counts were measured. For univariate analysis, bronchiolitis cases were grouped into two groups, namely those not requiring and those requiring any form of respiratory support. To control for known risk factors for poor outcome (i.e., age, prematurity, and congenital heart disease), and for days post symptom onset, linear regression analysis was performed with duration of any type of respiratory support in days. RESULTS: Ang-2 levels, Ang-2/Ang-1 ratios, sE-selectin levels, immature neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were higher in acute bronchiolitis versus controls. Ang-2, and NLR levels were significantly higher, and lymphocyte counts significantly lower, in infants that required respiratory support versus those that did not. Ang-2 levels (ß: .32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19-1.19) and NLR (ß: .68, 95% CI: 0.17-1.19) were positive predictors for the duration of respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: Markers of endothelial and neutrophil activation are associated with respiratory support for acute bronchiolitis. Admission Ang-2 levels and NLR may be promising markers to determine requirement of respiratory support and deserve further study.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus screening, and subsequent monitoring or treatment among pregnant women in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diagnosed chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among pregnant women in the Netherlands is 0.26%, yet many cases remain undiagnosed. HCV screening and treatment of pregnant HCV carriers could reduce the burden of disease and limit vertical transmission from mother to child. We assessed the impact of HCV screening and subsequent treatment with new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) among pregnant women in the Netherlands. METHODS: An HCV natural history Markov transition state model was developed, to evaluate the public-health and economic impact of HCV screening and treatment. Besides all 179,000 pregnant women in the Netherlands (cohort 1), we modelled 3 further cohorts: all 79,000 first-time pregnant women (cohort 2), 33,000 pregnant migrant women (cohort 3) and 16,000 first-time pregnant migrant women (cohort 4). Each cohort was analyzed in various scenarios: i no intervention, i.e., the current practice, ii screen-and-treat, i.e., the most extensive approach involving treatment of all individuals found HCV-positive, and iii screen-and-treat/monitor, i.e., a strategy involving treatment of symptomatic (F1-F4) patients and follow-up of asymptomatic (F0) HCV carriers with subsequent treatment only at progression. RESULTS: For all cohorts, comparison between scenarios (ii) and (i) resulted in ICERs between €9,306 and €10,173 per QALY gained and 5 year budget impacts varying between €6,283,830 and €19,220,405. For all cohorts, comparison between scenarios (iii) and (i) resulted in ICERs between €1,739 and €2,749 per QALY gained and budget impacts varying between €1,468,670 and €5,607,556. For all cohorts, the ICERs (scenario iii versus ii) involved in delayed treatment of asymptomatic (F0) HCV carriers varied between €56,607 and €56,892, well above the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained and even above a threshold of €50,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: Universal screening for HCV among all pregnant women in the Netherlands is cost-effective. However, it would be reasonable to consider smaller risk groups in view of the budget impact of the intervention.