Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective. METHODS: In this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries. RESULTS: Compared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: - 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: - 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

Disability weight measurement for the severity of different diseases in Wuhan, China.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of the Chinese burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weight (DW) that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 DW study indicates that it is limited by lack of geographic variation in DW data and by the current measurement methodology. We aim to estimate DW for a set of health states from major diseases in the Wuhan population. METHODS: We conducted the DW measurement study for 206 health states through a household survey with computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey. Based on GBD 2013 DW study, paired comparison (PC) and Population health equivalence (PHE) method was used and different PC/PHE questions were randomly assigned to each respondent. In statistical analysis, the PC data was analyzed by probit regression. The probit regression results will be anchored by results from the PHE data analyzed by interval regression on the DW scale units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). RESULTS: A total of 2610 and 3140 individuals were included in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The results from the total pooled data showed health state "mild anemia" (DW = 0.005, 95% UI 0.000-0.027) or "allergic rhinitis (hay fever)" (0.005, 95% UI 0.000-0.029) had the lowest DW and "heroin and other opioid dependence, severe" had the highest DW (0.699, 95% UI 0.579-0.827). A high correlation coefficient (Pearson's r = 0.876; P < 0.001) for DWs of same health states was observed between Wuhan's survey and GBD 2013 DW survey. Health states referred to mental symptom, fatigue, and the residual category of other physical symptoms were statistically significantly associated with a lower Wuhan's DWs than the GBD's DWs. Health states with disfigurement and substance use symptom had a higher DW in Wuhan population than the GBD 2013 study. CONCLUSIONS: This set of DWs could be used to calculate local diseases burden for health policy-decision in Wuhan population. The DW differences between the GBD's survey and Wuhan's survey suggest that there might be some contextual or culture factors influencing assessment on the severity of diseases.

Adaptation and validation of the Chinese version of the Sleep Quality Questionnaire.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Sleep quality is essential to health. The current study aimed to adapt and validate the Sleep Quality Questionnaire (SQQ) into Chinese language. METHODS: The Chinese version of the SQQ (SQQ-C) was created following the guidelines for cross-cultural adaptation. Compliant with the COSMIN methodology, baseline data (N = 13,325) examined three validity domains and internal consistency, including content validity using the content validity index (CVI) and the cognitive debriefing and focus group (relevance, comprehensiveness and comprehensibility), construct validity using structural validity and cross­sectional measurement invariance, and criterion validity using concurrent/convergent validity. Follow-up data (N = 3410) gathered within a mean of 168 (167-207) h interval were used to additionally assess longitudinal measurement invariance and test-retest reliability using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: Scale-level CVI/Average was equal to 0.922; Item-level CVIs ranged from 0.889 to 1.000 (excellent), except for item 2 (0.556-fair). A panel of local experts and local participants during cognitive debriefing and focus group stated that it had sufficient relevance and comprehensibility but a slight deficiency in comprehensiveness. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated a stable two-factor structure encompassing Daytime Sleepiness Subscale and Sleep Difficulty Subscale from baseline to follow-up data. The SQQ-C-9 (without item 2) outperformed the SQQ-C-10 (full form). The SQQ-C-9 provided evidence of measurement invariance (strict) across subgroups (cohorts, gender, and age) and across time. The SQQ-C was negatively correlated with the Chinese Nonrestorative Sleep Scale and the Chinese Sleep Condition Indicator. Cronbach's alpha (α), McDonald's Omega (ω), and ICC, respectively, ranged from 0.712 to 0.838, 0.723 to 0.840, and 0.738 to 0.764 for total scale and each subscale. CONCLUSION: The SQQ-C exhibits adequate psychometric properties and a stable two-factor structure, and should enable valuable assessments of sleep quality in clinical and research settings.

Trends and patterns in stroke incidence, mortality, DALYs and case-fatality by sociodemographic index worldwide: an age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke is a significant public health burden worldwide. This study aimed to explore the trends and patterns of stroke incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and case-fatality percent (CFP) worldwide from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Age-period-cohort analysis. METHODS: Trends in stroke burden worldwide were evaluated using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In addition, the relationship between the burden of stroke and sociodemographic index (SDI) was examined by quantile regression. Age, period and cohort patterns in stroke burden across different SDI groups were estimated using age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of stroke incidence, mortality and DALYs declined significantly worldwide, with decreases of -16.89% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: -18.41 to -15.29), -36.43% (95% UI: -41.65 to -31.20) and -35.23% (95% UI: -40.49 to -30.49), respectively. Regions with ASRs in the 75th percentile and below experienced significant decreases in ASRs with increasing SDI. After 2014, there was a stable or slightly increased period effect for stroke incidence in all groups, while mortality, DALYs and CFP increased only in the high SDI group. The cohort effect of stroke incidence remained constant in the high SDI group from the 1960-1964 cohort onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Although high SDI regions had a lower stroke burden and a faster overall decline in burden, the recent relative risk data suggest a potential deceleration in the progress of reducing stroke burden in these areas. There is a need for more active measures to reduce the stroke burden in areas with the highest incidence, mortality and DALYs, as increasing SDI alone cannot lower the burden in these regions.

Short-term effects of fine particulate matter constituents on myocardial infarction death.

Existing evidence suggested that short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may increase the risk of death from myocardial infarction (MI), while PM2.5 constituents responsible for this association has not been determined. We collected 12,927 MI deaths from 32 counties in southern China during 2011-2013. County-level exposures of ambient PM2.5 and its 5 constituents (i.e., elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), sulfate (SO42-), ammonium (NH4+), and nitrate (NO3-)) were aggregated from gridded datasets predicted by Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System. We employed a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models to quantify the association of MI mortality with short-term exposure to PM2.5 and its constituents across various lag days. Over the study period, the daily mean PM2.5 mass concentration was 77.8 (standard deviation (SD) = 72.7) µg/m3. We estimated an odds ratio of 1.038 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.003-1.074), 1.038 (1.013-1.063) and 1.057 (1.023-1.097) for MI mortality associated with per interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 3-day moving-average exposure to PM2.5 (IQR = 76.3 µg/m3), EC (4.1 µg/m3) and OC (9.1 µg/m3), respectively. We did not identify significant association between MI death and exposure to water-soluble ions (SO42-, NH4+ and NO3-). Likelihood ratio tests supported no evident violations of linear assumptions for constituents-MI associations. Subgroup analyses showed stronger associations between MI death and EC/OC exposure in the elderly, males and cold months. Short-term exposure to PM2.5 constituents, particularly those carbonaceous aerosols, was associated with increased risks of MI mortality.

Time trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence across the BRICS from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The present study analyzed trends in T2DM incidence rate across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: The incidence rate was estimated by the data obtained from GBD 2019 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2019) and was analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. Incidence rates of T2DM (1990-2019) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 25 to 29 to 85-89 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. RESULTS: In 2019, the the incidence rate of T2DM was 280.2 per 100,000 across the BRICS. Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate of T2DM among the BRICS population increased by 83.3%. In each period, as age increases, the incidence rate of T2DM in China and Russia first increased and then decreased, while the incidence rate of T2DM in Brazil, India and South Africa first increased and then decreased slightly with age group. Deteriorating period and cohort risks for incidence rate of T2DM were generally found across the BRICS. CONCLUSIONS: The number of diabetic patients in the BRICS countries has continued to increase and the growth rate has been stable in the past 30 years, which is dependent on age and some other environmental factors. Some possible factors influencing T2DM incidence are analyzed and hypotheses generated through the age and period effects.

Secular trends in chronic respiratory diseases mortality in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa: a comparative study across main BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As the emerging economies, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) shared 61.58% of the global chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) deaths in 2017. This study aimed to assess the secular trends in CRD mortality and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort across main BRICS countries. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and analyzed using the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019. The net drifts, local drifts, longitudinal age curves, period/cohort rate ratios (RRs) were obtained through the APC model. RESULTS: In 2019, the CRD deaths across the BRICS were 2.39 (95%UI 1.95 to 2.84) million, accounting for 60.07% of global CRD deaths. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma remained the leading causes of CRD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) have declined across the BRICS since 1990, with the most apparent decline in China. Meanwhile, the downward trends in CRD death counts were observed in China and Russia. The overall net drifts per year were obvious in China (-5.89%; -6.06% to -5.71%), and the local drift values were all below zero in all age groups for both sexes. The age effect of CRD presented increase with age, and the period and cohort RRs were following downward trends over time across countries. Similar trends were observed in COPD and asthma. The improvement of CRD mortality was the most obvious in China, especially in period and cohort effects. While South Africa showed the most rapid increase with age across all CRD categories, and the period and cohort effects were flat. CONCLUSIONS: BRICS accounted for a large proportion of CRD deaths, with China and India alone contributing more than half of the global CRD deaths. However, the declines in ASMR and improvements of period and cohort effects have been observed in both sexes and all age groups across main BRICS countries. China stands out for its remarkable reduction in CRD mortality and its experience may help reduce the burden of CRD in developing countries.

Demographics of road injuries and micromobility injuries among China, India, Japan, and the United States population: evidence from an age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Micromobility sharing platforms have involved skyrocketing numbers of users in multiple countries since 2010. However, few studies have examined the overall impact of the growing micromobility market on road injuries. METHOD: We use road injury data from the Global Burden of Disease Study database to examine the effect of age, period, and cohort on micromobility injury-related deaths and incidence. We compared four countries that vary in demographic background and road infrastructure. By comparing the countries, we analyzed the relationship between the trends in road injuries and these factors. RESULTS: We found an overall upward trend in micromobility injuries. A higher risk of micromobility-related injuries was witnessed in China and the US in 2015-2019, and people older than 45 showed a growing micromobility-related mortality and incidence rate in China, India, and the US. Cohorts after 1960 showed higher micromobility injury incidence risks in China and India, but the population born after 1990 in India showed a slightly lower risk compared to those before it. CONCLUSIONS: The boosted usage of micromobility devices explains these increasing trends. Road infrastructure and separated traffic ease the collisions from micromobility devices. The overall situation calls for improvement in legislation as well as road infrastructure.

Trend dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence among China and the U.S. adult population from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age-period-cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. RESULTS: The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990-2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990-2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

Association between sleep duration and mortality risk among adults with type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to investigate whether the effects of sleep duration interacted with the presence of diabetes. We specifically sought to examine the relationship between sleep duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people with type 2 diabetes across sex, age at diagnosis, duration of diabetes and treatment type. METHODS: The sample consisted of 273,029 adults, including 248,817 without diabetes and 24,212 with type 2 diabetes, who participated in the National Health Interview Survey from 2004 to 2013 and whose data were linked to a mortality database up to 31 December 2015. Sleep duration was measured using self-report, whereby participants were asked 'on average how long do you sleep each day (≤5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or ≥10 h/day)?' The relationship between sleep duration and mortality risk was investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression model, with adjustments for demographics, BMI, lifestyle behaviours and clinical variables. RESULTS: Absolute mortality rate was higher in adults with diabetes and extremes of sleep duration (≤5 h/day, 215.0 per 10,000 person-years; ≥10 h/day, 363.5 per 10,000 person-years). There was a non-significant interaction between sleep duration and the presence of diabetes (p for interaction = 0.08). A J-shaped relationship existed between sleep duration and all-cause mortality risk in people with type 2 diabetes. Compared with the reference group (7 h/day), both shorter and longer sleep durations were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (≤5 h/day, HR 1.24 [95% CI 1.09, 1.40]; 6 h/day, HR 1.13 [1.01, 1.28]; 8 h/day, HR 1.17 [1.06, 1.30]; ≥10 h/day, HR 1.83 [1.61, 2.08]). Similar associations were also observed for mortality risk from CVD, cancer, kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Longer sleep duration in those with a younger age at diabetes onset was associated with greater risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. Shorter sleep duration in individuals treated with both insulin and oral glucose-lowering medication was also associated with higher risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The associations between sleep duration and mortality risk may be different between diabetic and non-diabetic individuals. In people with type 2 diabetes, sleeping less or more than 7 h/day was associated with increased risk of all-cause and condition-specific mortality. The association was more prominent in those with a younger age at diabetes onset and receiving treatment with both oral glucose-lowering medication and insulin. This population may benefit from targeted sleep-related interventions to reduce the risks of adverse health outcomes. Graphical abstract.

A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach.

BACKGROUND: Precise predictions of incidence and mortality rates due to breast cancer (BC) are required for planning of public health programs as well as for clinical services. A number of approaches has been established for prediction of mortality using stochastic models. The performance of these models intensely depends on different patterns shown by mortality data in different countries. METHODS: The BC mortality data is retrieved from the Global burden of disease (GBD) study 2017 database. This study include BC mortality rates from 1990 to 2017, with ages 20 to 80+ years old women, for different Asian countries. Our study extend the current literature on Asian BC mortality data, on both the number of considered stochastic mortality models and their rigorous evaluation using multivariate Diebold-Marino test and by range of graphical analysis for multiple countries. RESULTS: Study findings reveal that stochastic smoothed mortality models based on functional data analysis generally outperform on quadratic structure of BC mortality rates than the other lee-carter models, both in term of goodness of fit and on forecast accuracy. Besides, smoothed lee carter (SLC) model outperform the functional demographic model (FDM) in case of symmetric structure of BC mortality rates, and provides almost comparable results to FDM in within and outside data forecast accuracy for heterogeneous set of BC mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Considering the SLC model in comparison to the other can be obliging to forecast BC mortality and life expectancy at birth, since it provides even better results in some cases. In the current situation, we can assume that there is no single model, which can truly outperform all the others on every population. Therefore, we also suggest generating BC mortality forecasts using multiple models rather than relying upon any single model.

The Chinese version of the Perceived Stress Questionnaire: development and validation amongst medical students and workers.

BACKGROUND: A valid and efficient stress measure is important for clinical and community settings. The objectives of this study were to translate the English version of the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ) into Chinese and to assess the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the PSQ (C-PSQ). The C-PSQ evaluates subjective experiences of stress instead of a specific and objective status. METHODS: Forward translations and back translations were used to translate the PSQ into Chinese. We used the C-PSQ to survey 2798 medical students and workers at three study sites in China from 2015 to 2017. Applying Rasch analysis (RA) and factor analysis (FA), we examined the measurement properties of the C-PSQ. Data were analyzed using the Rasch model for item fit, local dependence (LD), differential item functioning (DIF), unidimensionality, separation and reliability, response forms and person-item map. We first optimized the item selection in the Chinese version to maximize its psychometric quality. Second, we used cross-validation, by exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), to determine the best fitting model in comparison to the different variants. Measurement invariance (MI) was tested using multi-group CFA across subgroups (medical students vs. medical workers). We evaluated validity of the C-PSQ using the criterion instruments, such as the Chinese version of the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10), the Short Form-8 Health Survey (SF-8) and the Goldberg Anxiety and Depression Scale (GADS). Reliability was assessed using internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha, Guttman's lambda-2, and McDonald's omegas) and reproducibility (test-retest correlation and intraclass correlation coefficient, [ICC]). RESULTS: Infit and/or outfit values indicated that all items fitted the Rasch model. Three item pairs presented local dependency (residual correlations > 0.30). Ten items showed DIF. Dimensionality instruction suggested that eight items should be deleted. One item showed low discrimination. Thirteen items from the original PSQ were retained in the C-PSQ adaptation (i.e. C-PSQ-13). We tested and verified four feasible models to perform EFA. Built on the EFA models, the optimal CFA model included two first-order factors (i.e. constraint and imbalance) and a second-order factor (i.e., perceived stress). The first-order model had acceptable goodness of fit (Normed Chi-square = 8.489, TLI = 0.957, CFI = 0.965, WRMR = 1.637, RMSEA [90% CI] = 0.078 [0.072, 0.084]). The second-order model showed identical model fit. Person separation index (PSI) and person reliability (PR) were 2.42 and 0.85, respectively. Response forms were adequate, item difficulty matched respondents' ability levels, and unidimensionality was found in the two factors. Multi-group CFA showed validity of the optimal model. Concurrent validity of the C-PSQ-13 was 0.777, - 0.595 and 0.584 (Spearman correlation, P < 0.001, the same hereinafter) for the Chinese version of the PSS-10, SF-8, and GADS. For reliability analyses, internal consistency of the C-PSQ-13 was 0.878 (Cronbach's alpha), 0.880 (Guttman's lambda-2), and 0.880 (McDonald's omegas); test-retest correlation and ICC were 0.782 and 0.805 in a 2-day interval, respectively. CONCLUSION: The C-PSQ-13 shows good metric characteristics for most indicators, which could contribute to stress research given its validity and economy. This study also contributes to the evidence based regarding between-group factorial structure analysis.

Age-period-cohort analysis of kidney cancer deaths attributable to high body-mass index in China and U.S. adults.

BACKGROUND: Statistical data on burden of kidney cancer and the relavant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. This study aims to estimate kidney cancer deaths and high body-mass index (BMI) attributable to the deaths by gender and age group in China adults, compared with U.S. METHODS: We extracted kidney cancer data (1990-2017) about the age-standardized rates using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We performed an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to estimate trends of kidney cancer mortality attributable to high BMI. RESULTS: During 1990-2017, age-standardized mortality rate of kidney cancer was increasing in China but decreasing in U.S. The mortality attributable to high BMI in China showed a general increasing trend, while that in U.S. men was increasing and tended to be stable in women since 1995. APC analysis showed a similar pattern of age effect between China and U.S. adults, which substantially increased from 20 to 24 to 90-94 age group. Differently, the period effect rapidly increased in China than U.S. adults during 1990-2017. The cohort effect peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1902-1906 in China, and it declined consistently in U.S. with exception of 1902-1906 and 1907-1911 birth cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The kidney cancer deaths attributable to high BMI, and period effect have been generally increasing in China adults, compared with U.S. adults in which the trend tends to be stable in recent years. The rapid aging may also intensify the increasing trend of kidney cancer death in China. Effective measures should be conducted on body weight control and care for kidney cancer prevention.

The effects of exercise on insulin, glucose, IGF-axis and CRP in cancer survivors: Meta-analysis and meta-regression of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between physical activity and biological mediators of cancer recurrence and survival. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive literature search of PubMed, ScienceDirect and Web of Science for randomised controlled trials examining the association between physical activity and C-reactive protein (CRP), glucose, insulin, insulin resistance and insulin growth factor-one (IGF-1) up to December 2017. Standardised mean difference (SMD) scores were calculated, and meta-regression was performed. RESULTS: The meta-analysis indicated that survivors randomised to physical activity conditions experienced greater improvements in Insulin (SMD = -0.59; 95% CI, -1.05 to -0.14), CRP (SMD = -0.52; 95% CI, -0.87 to -0.17), insulin resistance (SMD = -0.20; 95% CI, -0.41 to -0.003) and glucose (SMD = -0.19; 95% CI, -0.35 to -0.02) than survivors randomised to control conditions. The meta-regression showed that study duration was positively, albeit marginally related (p = .056) to change in CRP levels among survivors in the physical activity conditions. Furthermore, higher baseline insulin levels in the physical activity conditions were associated with improving insulin levels throughout the intervention (p = .007). CONCLUSIONS: Promoting physical activity throughout the survivorship continuum is an effective intervention strategy for improving levels of insulin, glucose control, insulin resistance and CRP among cancer survivors.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Stroke Mortality Attributable to High Sodium Intake in China and Japan.

Background and Purpose- The aim of this study is to assess the long-term trends in stroke mortality attributable to high sodium intake in China and Japan during the period 1990 to 2016. Methods- The mortality data were obtained from the GBD study (Global Burden of Disease) 2016 and were analyzed using an age-period-cohort method. Results- The age-standardized mortality rates showed declining trends for high sodium intake-related stroke mortality. The overall net drifts per year were -3.1% for Chinese men and -5.0% for Chinese women; and -4.6% for Japanese men and -5.7% for Japanese women. The local drift values were below zero in all age groups for both sexes in both countries, and all local drift values of female participants were below their counterparts of male participants. The longitudinal age curves of high sodium intake-attributable stroke mortality increased rapidly for both sexes in China, whereas those of Japanese were slowly rising. The period and cohort rate ratios were found to have similar downward patterns for both sexes in both countries, with a quicker decline for women than for men (significantly with P<0.05 for all). Conclusions- The age-standardized mortality rates, the period effect and the cohort effect of stroke mortality attributable to high sodium intake in China and Japan have been declining in both sexes and all age groups from 1990 to 2016. Consequently, sodium-reduction strategies are of low cost and effective for the prevention of stroke. It is necessary to educate the nation with the correct knowledge on healthy diet and techniques to reduce salt consumption.

Sex differences in the association between diabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 5,162,654 participants.

BACKGROUND: Studies have suggested sex differences in the mortality rate associated with diabetes. We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the relative effect of diabetes on the risk of all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), infectious disease, and respiratory disease mortality in women compared with men. METHODS: Studies published from their inception to April 1, 2018, identified through a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE and review of references. We used the sex-specific RRs to derive the women-to-men ratio of RRs (RRR) and 95% CIs from each study. Subsequently, the RRR for each outcome was pooled with random-effects meta-analysis weighted by the inverse of the variances of the log RRRs. RESULTS: Forty-nine studies with 86 prospective cohorts met the inclusion criteria and were eligible for analysis. The pooled women-to-men RRR showed a 13% greater risk of all-cause mortality associated with diabetes in women than in men (RRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; P < 0.001). The pooled multiple-adjusted RRR indicated a 30% significantly greater excess risk of CVD mortality in women with diabetes compared with men (RRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.49; P < 0.001). Compared with men with diabetes, women with diabetes had a 58% greater risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, but only an 8% greater risk of stroke mortality (RRRCHD 1.58, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.90; P < 0.001; RRRstroke 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.15; P < 0.001). However, no sex differences were observed in pooled results of populations with or without diabetes for all-cancer (RRR 1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06; P = 0.21), infectious (RRR 1.13, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.38; P = 0.33), and respiratory mortality (RRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.23; P = 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with men with the same condition, women with diabetes have a 58% and 13% greater risk of CHD and all-cause mortality, respectively, although there was a significant heterogeneity between studies. This points to an urgent need to develop sex- and gender-specific risk assessment strategies and therapeutic interventions that target diabetes management in the context of CHD prevention.

Mortality risk and burden associated with temperature variability in China, United Kingdom and United States: Comparative analysis of daily and hourly exposure metrics.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is closely associated with climate change, but there is no unified TV definition worldwide. Two novel composite TV indexes were developed recently by calculating the standard deviations of several days' daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TVdaily), or hourly mean temperatures (TVhourly). OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to compare the mortality risks and burden associated with TVdaily and TVhourly using large time-series datasets collected from multiple locations in China, United Kingdom and United States. METHODS: We collected daily mortality and hourly temperature data through 1987 to 2012 from 63 locations in China (8 communities, 2006-2012), United Kingdom (10 regions, 1990-2012), and USA (45 cities, 1987-2000). TV-mortality associations were investigated using a three-stage analytic approach separately for China, UK, and USA. First, we applied a time-series regression for each location to derive location-specific TV-mortality curves. A second-stage meta-analysis was then performed to pool these estimated associations for each country. Finally, we calculated mortality fraction attributable to TV based on above-described location-specific and pooled estimates. RESULTS: Our dataset totally consisted of 23, 089, 328 all-cause death cases, including 93, 750 from China, 7,573,716 from UK and 15, 421, 862 from USA, respectively. In despite of a relatively wide uncertainty in China, approximately linear relationships were consistently identified for TVdaily and TVhourly. In the three countries, generally similar lag patterns of TV effects were consistently observed for TVdaily and TVhourly. A 1 °C rise in TVdaily and TVhourly at lag 0-7 days was associated with mortality increases of 0.93% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12, 1.74) and 0.97% (0.18, 1.77) in China, 0.33% (0.15, 0.51) and 0.41% (0.21, 0.60) in UK, and 0.55% (0.41, 0.70) and 0.51% (0.35, 0.66) in USA, respectively. Larger attributable fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly, with estimates at 0-10 days of 3.69% (0.51, 6.75) vs. 2.59% (0.10, 5.01) in China, 1.14% (0.54, 1.74) vs. 0.98% (0.55, 1.42) in UK, and 2.57% (1.97, 3.16) vs. 1.67% (1.15, 2.18) in USA, respectively. Our meta-regression analyses indicated higher vulnerability to TV-induced mortality risks in warmer locations. CONCLUSIONS: Our study added multi-country evidence for increased mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to large temperature variability. Daily and hourly TV exposure metrics produced generally comparable risk effects, but the attributable mortality burden tended to be higher using TVdaily instead of TVhourly.

Impact of summer heat on mortality and years of life lost: Application of a novel indicator of daily excess hourly heat.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have widely assessed heat-mortality relationships across global regions, while the epidemiological evidence regarding the heat effect on years of life lost (YLL) is relatively sparse. Current investigations using daily mean data cannot take hourly temperature variation into consideration and may underestimate heat effects. We developed a novel indicator, daily excess hourly heat (DEHH), to precisely evaluate the potential heat effects on mortality and YLL. METHODS: Hourly data on temperature and daily information, including concentrations of air pollutants, relative humidity, and records of all registered deaths were obtained in Wuhan, China during the warm seasons (May-September) of 2009-2012. DEHH, developed in this study, is defined as daily total hourly temperatures that exceed a specific heat threshold. By performing time series regression analyses, we assessed the changes in daily mortality and YLL per interquartile range (IQR) increase in DEHH across different lag days. RESULTS: The heat threshold evaluated by the Akaike Information Criterion for DEHH calculation is 30 °C (92th percentile of whole-year mean temperature distribution). Daily average DEHH was 13.9 °C, with an IQR of 19.9 °C. Linear exposure-response curves were found between DEHH and two health outcomes. Generally, heat effects lasted for 2-3 days and DEHH at lag 0-1 was most strongly associated with increased mortality and YLL. The effects were especially remarkable for stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality. Most intense effect on YLL was found in non-accidental deaths (20.11, 95% confidence interval: 8.90-31.33) at lag 0-1. More DEHH-related mortality and YLL from cardiovascular deaths were observed among males. People aged 0-74 years and males suffered more from YLL burden due to high temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that DEHH may be an alternative indicator to precisely measure heat effects on daily mortality and YLL. Further DEHH-based evidence from large scale investigations is needed so as to better understand heat-associated health burden and improve public response to extremely high temperatures.

Burden of Ischaemic heart disease and attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2015: findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study.

BACKGROUND: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is a major barrier to sustainable human development, but its health burden and geographic distribution among provinces of China remain unclear. This study aimed to estimate IHD burden in provinces of China, and attributable to risk factors from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study, which evaluated IHD burden and attributable risk factors using deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Statistical models including cause of death ensemble modelling, Bayesian meta-regression analysis, and comparative risk assessment approaches were applied to reduce bias and produce comprehensive results of IHD deaths, DALYs and attributable risks. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated and reported for mortality and DALYs. RESULTS: The age-standardised death rate per 100,000 people increased by 13.3% from 101.3 (95%UI: 95.3-107.5) to 114.8 (95%UI: 109.8-120.1) from 1990 to 2015 in China, whereas the age-standardised DALY rate declined 3.9% to 1760.2 per 100,000 people (95%UI: 1671.6-1864.3). In 2015, the age-standardised death rate per 100,000 people was the highest in Heilongjiang (187.4, 95%UI: 161.6-217.5) and the lowest in Shanghai (44.2, 95%UI: 37.0-53.1), and the age-standardised DALY rate per 100,000 people was the highest in Xinjiang (3040.8, 95%UI: 2488.8-3735.4) and the lowest in Shanghai (524.4, 95%UI: 434.7-638.4). Geographically, the age-standardised death and DALY rates for southern provinces were lower than northern provinces, especially in southeastern coastal provinces. 95.3% of the IHD burden in China was attributable to environmental, behavioural and metabolic risk factors. The five leading IHD risks in 2015 were high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, diet high in sodium, diet low in whole grains, and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Population growth and ageing has led to a steady increase in the IHD burden. Regional disparities in IHD burden were observed in provinces of China. The distribution characteristics of IHD burden provide guidance for decision makers to formulate targeted preventive policies and interventions.

[Mortality trend in nasopharynx cancer in Chinese resident from 1987 to 2015].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze epidemical features, distribution and time trend for nasopharynx cancer deaths in China from 1987 to 2015.
 Methods: Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors for nasopharynx cancer deaths and a joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in nasopharynx cancer mortality in various populations.
 Results: A falling trend in age-standardized nasopharynx cancer mortality rates was observed among Chinese residents with the average annual percent change (AAPC) at -2.97% among urban female residents and -2.60% among rural female residents (P<0.05), -2.01% among urban male residents, and -1.68% among rural male residents (P<0.05), respectively. It decreased yearly for urban male aged over 85 years with AAPC at -1.54% and the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for the urban female aged over 85 years with AAPC at -0.60%, the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for rural male residents aged more than 65 years with AAPC at -0.56% and for rural female residents aged more than 85 with AAPC at 1.17%, with no significant difference (P<0.05). The nasopharynx cancer deaths risks were higher in urban residents than those in rural residents (OR=1.11, P<0.01), and they were also higher in male residents than those in female residents (OR=2.34, P<0.01). A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 23% increase in nasopharynx cancer mortality (OR=1.23, P<0.01) and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 2% decrease in mortality (OR=0.98, P<0.01). 
 Conclusion: There was a significant gender and age difference in a decreased trend of nasopharynx cancer mortality among Chinese residents in a long period; no increased trend was observed in the overall populations over 85 years old.