Cooperative Metabolic Adaptations in the Host Can Favor Asymptomatic Infection and Select for Attenuated Virulence in an Enteric Pathogen.

Pathogen virulence exists on a continuum. The strategies that drive symptomatic or asymptomatic infections remain largely unknown. We took advantage of the concept of lethal dose 50 (LD50) to ask which component of individual non-genetic variation between hosts defines whether they survive or succumb to infection. Using the enteric pathogen Citrobacter, we found no difference in pathogen burdens between healthy and symptomatic populations. Iron metabolism-related genes were induced in asymptomatic hosts compared to symptomatic or naive mice. Dietary iron conferred complete protection without influencing pathogen burdens, even at 1000× the lethal dose of Citrobacter. Dietary iron induced insulin resistance, increasing glucose levels in the intestine that were necessary and sufficient to suppress pathogen virulence. A short course of dietary iron drove the selection of attenuated Citrobacter strains that can transmit and asymptomatically colonize naive hosts, demonstrating that environmental factors and cooperative metabolic strategies can drive conversion of pathogens toward commensalism.

Reconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections.

There has long been controversy over the potential for asymptomatic cases of the influenza virus to have the capacity for onward transmission, but recognition of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 stimulates further research into this topic. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze detailed data from a large cohort of 727 households and 2515 individuals in the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in Hong Kong to characterize household transmission dynamics and to estimate the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic versus symptomatic influenza cases. The posterior probability that asymptomatic cases [36% of cases; 95% credible interval (CrI): 32%, 40%] are less infectious than symptomatic cases is 0.82, with estimated relative infectiousness 0.57 (95% CrI: 0.11, 1.54). More data are required to strengthen our understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the spread of influenza.

What are the neurodevelopmental outcomes of children with asymptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus infection at birth? A systematic literature review.

Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is among the most common congenital infections globally. Of 85%-90% cCMV-infected infants without symptoms at birth, 10%-15% develop sequelae, most commonly sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL); their childhood neurodevelopmental outcomes are less well understood. Embase and MEDLINE were searched for publications from 16th September 2016 to 9th February 2024 to identify studies reporting primary data on neurodevelopmental outcomes in children with asymptomatic cCMV (AcCMV), measured using assessment tools or as evaluated by the study investigators, clinicians, educators, or parents. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was applied to studies to assess risk of bias. Of 28 studies from 18 mostly high-income countries, there were 5-109 children with AcCMV per study and 6/28 had a mean or median age at last follow-up of ≥5 years. Children with AcCMV had better neurodevelopmental outcomes than children with symptomatic cCMV in 16/19 studies. Of 9/28 studies comparing AcCMV with CMV-uninfected children, six reported similar outcomes whilst three reported differences limited to measures of full-scale intelligence and receptive vocabulary among children with AcCMV and SNHL, or more generally in motor impairment. Common limitations of studies for our question were a lack of cCMV-uninfected controls, heterogeneous definitions of AcCMV, lack of focus on neurodevelopment, selection bias and inadequate follow-up. There was little evidence of children with AcCMV having worse neurodevelopmental outcomes than CMV-uninfected children, but this conclusion is limited by study characteristics and quality; findings highlight the need for well-designed and standardised approaches to investigate long-term sequelae.

Modeling for COVID-19 college reopening decisions: Cornell, a case study.

We consider epidemiological modeling for the design of COVID-19 interventions in university populations, which have seen significant outbreaks during the pandemic. A central challenge is sensitivity of predictions to input parameters coupled with uncertainty about these parameters. Nearly 2 y into the pandemic, parameter uncertainty remains because of changes in vaccination efficacy, viral variants, and mask mandates, and because universities' unique characteristics hinder translation from the general population: a high fraction of young people, who have higher rates of asymptomatic infection and social contact, as well as an enhanced ability to implement behavioral and testing interventions. We describe an epidemiological model that formed the basis for Cornell University's decision to reopen for in-person instruction in fall 2020 and supported the design of an asymptomatic screening program instituted concurrently to prevent viral spread. We demonstrate how the structure of these decisions allowed risk to be minimized despite parameter uncertainty leading to an inability to make accurate point estimates and how this generalizes to other university settings. We find that once-per-week asymptomatic screening of vaccinated undergraduate students provides substantial value against the Delta variant, even if all students are vaccinated, and that more targeted testing of the most social vaccinated students provides further value.

Catheter-associated urinary tract infection by Pseudomonas aeruginosa progresses through acute and chronic phases of infection.

Healthcare-associated infections are major causes of complications that lead to extended hospital stays and significant medical costs. The use of medical devices, including catheters, increases the risk of bacterial colonization and infection through the presence of a foreign surface. Two outcomes are observed for catheterized patients: catheter-associated asymptomatic bacteriuria and catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI). However, the relationship between these two events remains unclear. To understand this relationship, we studied a murine model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa CAUTI. In this model, we also observe two outcomes in infected animals: acute symptoms that is associated with CAUTI and chronic colonization that is associated with asymptomatic bacteriuria. The timing of the acute outcome takes place in the first week of infection, whereas chronic colonization occurs in the second week of infection. We further showed that mutants lacking genes encoding type III secretion system (T3SS), T3SS effector proteins, T3SS injection pore, or T3SS transcriptional activation all fail to cause acute symptoms of CAUTI. Nonetheless, all mutants defective for T3SS colonized the catheter and bladders at levels similar to the parental strain. In contrast, through induction of the T3SS master regulator ExsA, all infected animals showed acute phenotypes with bacteremia. Our results demonstrated that the acute symptoms, which are analogous to CAUTI, and chronic colonization, which is analogous to asymptomatic bacteriuria, are independent events that require distinct bacterial virulence factors. Experimental delineation of asymptomatic bacteriuria and CAUTI informs different strategies for the treatment and intervention of device-associated infections.

Aortic valve replacement versus conservative treatment in asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis: long-term follow-up of the AVATAR trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The question of when and how to treat truly asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) and normal left ventricular (LV) systolic function is still subject to debate and ongoing research. Here, the results of extended follow-up of the AVATAR trial are reported (NCT02436655, clinical trials.gov). METHODS: The AVATAR trial randomly assigned patients with severe, asymptomatic AS and LV ejection fraction ≥50% to undergo either early surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) or conservative treatment with watchful waiting strategy. All patients had negative exercise stress testing. The primary hypothesis was that early AVR will reduce a primary composite endpoint comprising all-cause death, acute myocardial infarction, stroke or unplanned hospitalization for heart failure (HF), as compared to conservative treatment strategy. RESULTS: A total of 157 low-risk patients (mean age 67 years, 57% men, mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons score 1.7%) were randomly allocated to either early AVR group (n=78) or conservative treatment group (n=79). In an intention-to-treat analysis, after a median follow-up of 63 months, the primary composite endpoint outcome event occurred in 18/78 patients (23.1%) in the early surgery group and in 37/79 patients (46.8%) in the conservative treatment group (hazard ratio [HR] early surgery vs. conservative treatment 0.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-0.73, p=0.002). The Kaplan-Meier estimates for individual endpoints of all-cause death and HF hospitalization were significantly lower in the early surgery compared with the conservative group (HR 0.44; 95% CI 0.23-0.85, p=0.012 for all-cause death, and HR 0.21; 95% CI 0.06-0.73, p=0.007 for HF hospitalizations). CONCLUSIONS: The extended follow-up of the AVATAR trial demonstrates better clinical outcomes with early surgical AVR in truly asymptomatic patients with severe AS and normal LV ejection fraction compared with patients treated with conservative management on watchful waiting. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02436655 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Microheterogeneity of Transmission Shapes Submicroscopic Malaria Carriage in Coastal Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites persists even as malaria transmission declines. Low-density infections are often submicroscopic, not detected with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) or microscopy but detectable by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). METHODS: To characterize submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum carriage in an area of declining malaria transmission, asymptomatic persons >5 years of age in rural Bagamoyo District, Tanzania, were screened using RDT, microscopy, and PCR. We investigated the size of the submicroscopic reservoir of infection across villages, determined factors associated with submicroscopic carriage, and assessed the natural history of submicroscopic malaria over 4 weeks. RESULTS: Among 6076 participants, P. falciparum prevalences by RDT, microscopy, and PCR were 9%, 9%, and 28%, respectively, with roughly two-thirds of PCR-positive individuals harboring submicroscopic infection. Adult status, female sex, dry season months, screened windows, and bed net use were associated with submicroscopic carriage. Among 15 villages encompassing 80% of participants, the proportion of submicroscopic carriers increased with decreasing village-level malaria prevalence. Over 4 weeks, 23% of submicroscopic carriers (61 of 266) became RDT positive, with half exhibiting symptoms, while half (133 of 266) were no longer parasitemic at the end of 4 weeks. Progression to RDT-positive patent malaria occurred more frequently in villages with higher malaria prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Microheterogeneity in transmission observed at the village level appears to affect both the size of the submicroscopic reservoir and the likelihood of submicroscopic carriers developing patent malaria in coastal Tanzania.

Serological Evidence of Mpox Virus Infection During Peak Mpox Transmission in New York City, July to August 2022.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which infections may have been undetected in an epicenter of the 2022 mpox outbreak is unknown. METHODS: A serosurvey (July and August 2022) assessed the seroprevalence and correlates of mpox infection among a diverse sample of asymptomatic patients with no prior mpox diagnoses and no known histories of smallpox or mpox vaccination. We present seropositivity stratified by participant characteristics collected via survey. RESULTS: Two-thirds of 419 participants were cismen (281 of 419), of whom 59.1% (166 of 281) reported sex with men (MSM). The sample also included 109 ciswomen and 28 transgender/gender nonconforming/nonbinary individuals. Overall seroprevalence was 6.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1%-8.8%); 3.7% among ciswomen (95% CI, 1.0%-9.1%), 7.0% among cismen with only ciswomen partners (95% CI, 2.0%-11.9%), and 7.8% among MSM (95% CI, 3.7%-11.9%). There was little variation in seroprevalence by race/ethnicity, age group, HIV status, or number of recent sex partners. No participants who reported close contact with mpox cases were seropositive. Among participants without recent mpox-like symptoms, 6.3% were seropositive (95% CI, 3.6%-9.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 15 vaccine-naive people in our study had antibodies to mpox during the height of the NYC outbreak, indicating the presence of asymptomatic infections that could contribute to ongoing transmission.

Asymptomatic Low-Density Plasmodium falciparum Infections: Parasites Under the Host's Immune Radar?

A large body of evidence suggests that low parasite carriage in Plasmodium falciparum asymptomatic infection is required for the maintenance of malaria immunity. However, the fact that treating such infections has little to no impact on subsequent clinical malaria is rarely noted. In this paper, we review data and argue that low-density parasite carriage in asymptomatic infection may not support host immune processes and that parasites are virtually under the host's immunological radar. We also discuss factors that may be constraining parasitemia in asymptomatic infections from reaching the threshold required to cause clinical symptoms. A thorough understanding of this infectious reservoir is essential for malaria control and eradication because asymptomatic infections contribute significantly to Plasmodium transmission.

Persistent asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum parasite carriage has been recognized as one of the major contributors to malaria transmission that impedes worldwide elimination efforts. Asymptomatic infection is required for maintaining clinical immunity, hence the controversy regarding its treatment. Evidence from transcriptional and cellular profiling indicates asymptomatic low parasite carriage may not support host immune processes. Interventions targeted at persistent asymptomatic infections may be crucial for malaria control.

An Explanation for Reports of Increased Prevalence of Olfactory Dysfunction With Omicron: Asymptomatic Infections.

The prevalence of olfactory dysfunction (OD) in people infected with the Omicron variant is substantially reduced compared with previous variants. However, 4 recent studies reported a greatly increased prevalence of OD with Omicron. We provide a likely explanation for these outlier studies and reveal a major methodological flaw. When the proportion of asymptomatic infections is large, studies on the prevalence of OD will examine and report predominantly on nonrepresentative cohorts, those with symptomatic subjects, thereby artificially inflating the prevalence of OD by up to 10-fold. Estimation of the true OD prevalence requires representative cohorts that include relevant fractions of asymptomatic cases.

Bladder catheterization improves bacterial interference with asymptomatic Escherichia coli 83972 in an experimental porcine model of urinary tract infection.

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common disease with a significant risk of relapse. Deliberate bladder colonization with asymptomatic Escherichia coli is being explored as a potential strategy to fend off invading uropathogens thereby mitigating the risk symptomatic UTI. Currently, one major obstacle is the low success rates for achieving persistent bladder colonization with asymptomatic bacteria and experimental challenge studies are lacking. Here, we assessed the influence of an indwelling bladder catheter on the ability of asymptomatic E. coli to colonize the bladder and to assess the protective efficacy of such colonization against experimental urinary tract infection with uropathogenic E. coli. METHODS: Pigs with or without indwelling bladder catheters were experimentally inoculated with the asymptomatic E. coli strain 83972 and subsequently challenged by inoculation with the uropathogenic E. coli isolate, UTI89. The animals were monitored with regular urine and blood samples and bladders and kidneys were harvested at termination. RESULTS: All pigs with indwelling catheters were colonized by 83972 in response to inoculation, compared to pigs without catheters in which only one of eight animals were colonized. When removing the catheter, 83972 were spontaneously cleared. Colonization with 83972 prevented experimental infection in 50% of animals compared to controls that all became infected. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of indwelling bladder catheters strongly facilitates the colonization of 83972, indicating that individuals using catheters may be particularly suited for receiving this treatment. The research supports prophylactic colonization with 83972 as a potential strategy to reduce the risk of urinary tract infections.

Proteomic Changes in the Hippocampus after Repeated Explosive-Driven Blasts.

Repeated blast-traumatic brain injury (blast-TBI) has been hypothesized to cause persistent and unusual neurological and psychiatric symptoms in service members returning from war zones. Blast-wave primary effects have been supposed to induce damage and molecular alterations in the brain. However, the mechanisms through which the primary effect of an explosive-driven blast wave generate brain lesions and induce brain consequences are incompletely known. Prior findings from rat brains exposed to two consecutive explosive-driven blasts showed molecular changes (hyperphosphorylated-Tau, AQP4, S100ß, PDGF, and DNA-polymerase-ß) that varied in magnitude and direction across different brain regions. We aimed to compare, in an unbiased manner, the proteomic profile in the hippocampus of double blast vs sham rats using mass spectrometry (MS). Data showed differences in up- and down-regulation for protein abundances in the hippocampus of double blast vs sham rats. Tandem mass tag (TMT)-MS results showed 136 up-regulated and 94 down-regulated proteins between the two groups (10.25345/C52B8VP0X). These TMT-MS findings revealed changes never described before in blast studies, such as increases in MAGI3, a scaffolding protein at cell-cell junctions, which were confirmed by Western blotting analyses. Due to the absence of behavioral and obvious histopathological changes as described in our previous publications, these proteomic data further support the existence of an asymptomatic blast-induced molecular altered status (ABIMAS) associated with specific protein changes in the hippocampus of rats repeatedly expsosed to blast waves generated by explosive-driven detonations.

Diverse Sources and Latent Reservoirs of Community-Associated Clostridioides difficile Infection.

Clostridioides difficile (C. difficile) is a spore-forming, toxin-producing, anaerobic bacterium infecting the human gastrointestinal tract, causing diarrhea and life-threatening colitis. C. difficile epidemiology continues to evolve, and it is recognized as a major community-associated pathogen in addition to its established role in causing healthcare-associated infection. While current surveillance and prevention measures mainly focus on healthcare-associated C. difficile infections, much less is known about the factors driving community-associated C. difficile infections. This review highlights the potential contribution of reservoirs, including asymptomatic carriers, to community-associated C. difficile transmission. The reservoirs discussed in this review provide potential avenues for research to better understand and reduce community-associated transmission of C. difficile.

Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Asymptomatic Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 Polymerase Chain Reaction Screening: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: An early report has shown the clinical benefit of the asymptomatic preoperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) screening test, and some clinical guidelines recommended this test. However, the cost-effectiveness of asymptomatic screening was not evaluated. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of universal preoperative screening of asymptomatic patients for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. METHODS: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of asymptomatic screening using a decision tree model from a payer perspective, assuming that the test-positive rate was 0.07% and the screening cost was 8500 Japanese yen (JPY) (approximately 7601 US dollars [USD]). The input parameter was derived from the available evidence reported in the literature. A willingness-to-pay threshold was set at 5 000 000 JPY/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS: The incremental cost of 1 death averted was 74 469 236 JPY (approximately 566 048 USD) and 291 123 368 JPY/QALY (approximately 2 212 856 USD/QALY), which was above the 5 000 000 JPY/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio fell below 5 000 000 JPY/QALY only when the test-positive rate exceeded 0.739%. However, when the probability of developing a postoperative pulmonary complication among SARS-CoV-2-positive patients was below 0.22, asymptomatic screening was never cost-effective, regardless of how high the test-positive rate became. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic preoperative universal SARS-CoV-2 PCR screening is not cost-effective in the base case analysis. The cost-effectiveness mainly depends on the test-positive rate, the frequency of postoperative pulmonary complications, and the screening costs; however, no matter how high the test-positive rate, the cost-effectiveness is poor if the probability of developing postoperative pulmonary complications among patients positive for SARS-CoV-2 is sufficiently reduced.

In Support of Universal Admission Testing for SARS-CoV-2 During Significant Community Transmission.

Many hospitals have stopped or are considering stopping universal admission testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We discuss reasons why admission testing should still be part of a layered system to prevent hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections during times of significant community transmission. These include the morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in vulnerable patients, the predominant contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic people to transmission, the high rate of transmission between patients in shared rooms, and data suggesting surveillance testing is associated with fewer nosocomial infections. Preferences of diverse patient populations, particularly the hardest-hit communities, should be surveyed and used to inform prevention measures. Hospitals' ethical responsibility to protect patients from serious infections should predominate over concerns about costs, labor, and inconvenience. We call for more rigorous data on the incidence and morbidity of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections and more research to help determine when to start, stop, and restart universal admission testing and other prevention measures.

Decision-Making for Preventive Interventions in Asymptomatic Patients.

The decision to treat an incidental finding in an asymptomatic patient results from careful risk-benefit consideration and is often challenging. One of the main aspects is after how many years the group who underwent the intervention and faced the immediate treatment complications will gain a treatment benefit over the conservatively managed group, which maintains a lower but ongoing risk. We identify a common error in decision-making. We illustrate how a risk-based approach using the classical break-even point at the Kaplan-Meier curves can be misleading and advocate for using an outcome-based approach, counting the cumulative number of lost quality-adjusted life years instead. In clinical practice, we often add together the yearly risk of the natural course up to the time point where the number equals the risk of the intervention and assume that the patient will benefit from an intervention beyond this point in time. It corresponds to the crossing of the Kaplan-Meier curves. However, because treatment-related poor outcome occurs at the time of the intervention, while the poor outcome in the conservative group occurs over a given time period, the true benefit of retaining more quality-adjusted life years in the interventional group emerges at a much later time. To avoid overtreatment of patients with asymptomatic diseases, decision-making should be outcome-based with counting the cumulative loss of quality-adjusted life years, rather than risk-based, comparing the interventional risk with the ongoing yearly risk of the natural course.

Development of Patient Safety Measures to Identify Inappropriate Diagnosis of Common Infections.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate diagnosis of infections results in antibiotic overuse and may delay diagnosis of underlying conditions. Here we describe the development and characteristics of 2 safety measures of inappropriate diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), the most common inpatient infections on general medicine services. METHODS: Measures were developed from guidelines and literature and adapted based on data from patients hospitalized with UTI and CAP in 49 Michigan hospitals and feedback from end-users, a technical expert panel (TEP), and a patient focus group. Each measure was assessed for reliability, validity, feasibility, and usability. RESULTS: Two measures, now endorsed by the National Quality Forum (NQF), were developed. Measure reliability (derived from 24 483 patients) was excellent (0.90 for UTI; 0.91 for CAP). Both measures had strong validity demonstrated through (a) face validity by hospital users, the TEPs, and patient focus group, (b) implicit case review (ĸ 0.72 for UTI; ĸ 0.72 for CAP), and (c) rare case misclassification (4% for UTI; 0% for CAP) due to data errors (<2% for UTI; 6.3% for CAP). Measure implementation through hospital peer comparison in Michigan hospitals (2017 to 2020) demonstrated significant decreases in inappropriate diagnosis of UTI and CAP (37% and 32%, respectively, P < .001), supporting usability. CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly reliable, valid, and usable measures of inappropriate diagnosis of UTI and CAP for hospitalized patients. Hospitals seeking to improve diagnostic safety, antibiotic use, and patient care should consider using these measures to reduce inappropriate diagnosis of CAP and UTI.

Household Transmission Dynamics of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-Infected Children: A Multinational, Controlled Case-Ascertained Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is highly prevalent but its acute and chronic implications have been minimally described. METHODS: In this controlled case-ascertained household transmission study, we recruited asymptomatic children <18 years with SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid testing performed at 12 tertiary care pediatric institutions in Canada and the United States. We attempted to recruit all test-positive children and 1 to 3 test-negative, site-matched controls. After 14 days' follow-up we assessed the clinical (ie, symptomatic) and combined (ie, test-positive, or symptomatic) secondary attack rates (SARs) among household contacts. Additionally, post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) was assessed in SARS-CoV-2-positive participating children after 90 days' follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 111 test-positive and 256 SARS-CoV-2 test-negative asymptomatic children were enrolled between January 2021 and April 2022. After 14 days, excluding households with co-primary cases, the clinical SAR among household contacts of SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative index children was 10.6% (19/179; 95% CI: 6.5%-16.1%) and 2.0% (13/663; 95% CI: 1.0%-3.3%), respectively (relative risk = 5.4; 95% CI: 2.7-10.7). In households with a SARS-CoV-2-positive index child, age <5 years, being pre-symptomatic (ie, developed symptoms after test), and testing positive during Omicron and Delta circulation periods (vs earlier) were associated with increased clinical and combined SARs among household contacts. Among 77 asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children with 90-day follow-up, 6 (7.8%; 95% CI: 2.9%-16.2%) reported PCC. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children, especially those <5 years, are important contributors to household transmission, with 1 in 10 exposed household contacts developing symptomatic illness within 14 days. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children may develop PCC.

The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. METHODS: We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. RESULTS: We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease.

Kinetics of Hepatitis E Virus Infections in Asymptomatic Persons.

To determine the kinetics of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in asymptomatic persons and to evaluate viral load doubling time and half-life, we retrospectively tested samples retained from 32 HEV RNA-positive asymptomatic blood donors in Germany. Close-meshed monitoring of viral load and seroconversion in intervals of ≈4 days provided more information about the kinetics of asymptomatic HEV infections. We determined that a typical median infection began with PCR-detectable viremia at 36 days and a maximum viral load of 2.0 × 104 IU/mL. Viremia doubled in 2.4 days and had a half-life of 1.6 days. HEV IgM started to rise on about day 33 and peaked on day 36; IgG started to rise on about day 32 and peaked on day 53. Although HEV IgG titers remained stable, IgM titers became undetectable in 40% of donors. Knowledge of the dynamics of HEV viremia is useful for assessing the risk for transfusion-transmitted hepatitis E.