The "double jeopardy" of midlife and old age mortality trends in the United States.

Since 2010, US life expectancy growth has stagnated. Much research on US mortality has focused on working-age adults given adverse trends in drug overdose deaths, other external causes of death, and cardiometabolic deaths in midlife. We show that the adverse mortality trend at retirement ages (65+ y) has in fact been more consequential to the US life expectancy stagnation since 2010, as well as excess deaths and years of life lost in 2019, than adverse mortality trends at working ages. These results reveal that the United States is experiencing a "double jeopardy" that is driven by both mid-life and older-age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality. Understanding and addressing the causes behind the worsening mortality trend in older ages will be essential to returning to the pace of life expectancy improvements that the United States had experienced for decades.

Diversified farms bolster forest-bird populations despite ongoing declines in tropical forests.

While some agricultural landscapes can support wildlife in the short term, it is uncertain how well they can truly sustain wildlife populations. To compare population trends in different production systems, we sampled birds along 48 transects in mature forests, diversified farms, and intensive farms across Costa Rica from 2000 to 2017. To assess how land use influenced population trends in the 349 resident and 80 migratory species with sufficient data, we developed population models. We found, first, that 23% of species were stable in all three land use types, with the rest almost evenly split between increasing and decreasing populations. Second, in forest habitats, a slightly higher fraction was declining: 62% of the 164 species undergoing long-term population changes; nearly half of these declines occurred in forest-affiliated invertivores. Third, in diversified farms, 49% of the 230 species with population changes were declining, with 60% of these declines occurring in agriculture-affiliated species. In contrast, 51% of the species with population changes on diversified farms showed increases, primarily in forest-affiliated invertivores and frugivores. In intensive farms, 153 species showed population changes, also with similar proportions of species increasing (50%) and decreasing (50%). Declines were concentrated in agriculture-affiliated invertivores and forest-affiliated frugivores; increases occurred in many large, omnivorous species. Our findings paint a complex picture but clearly indicate that diversified farming helps sustain populations of diverse, forest-affiliated species. Despite not fully offsetting losses in forest habitats, diversified farming practices help sustain wildlife in a critical time, before possible transformation to nature-positive policies and practices.

Observation-derived 2010-2019 trends in methane emissions and intensities from US oil and gas fields tied to activity metrics.

The United States is the world's largest oil/gas methane emitter according to current national reports. Reducing these emissions is a top priority in the US government's climate action plan. Here, we use a 2010 to 2019 high-resolution inversion of surface and satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify emission trends for individual oil/gas production regions in North America and relate them to production and infrastructure. We estimate a mean US oil/gas methane emission of 14.8 (12.4 to 16.5) Tg a-1 for 2010 to 2019, 70% higher than reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency. While emissions in Canada and Mexico decreased over the period, US emissions increased from 2010 to 2014, decreased until 2017, and rose again afterward. Increases were driven by the largest production regions (Permian, Anadarko, Marcellus), while emissions in the smaller production regions generally decreased. Much of the year-to-year emission variability can be explained by oil/gas production rates, active well counts, and new wells drilled, with the 2014 to 2017 decrease driven by reduction in new wells and the 2017 to 2019 surge driven by upswing of production. We find a steady decrease in the oil/gas methane intensity (emission per unit methane gas production) for almost all major US production regions. The mean US methane intensity decreased from 3.7% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2019. If the methane intensity for the oil/gas supply chain continues to decrease at this pace, we may expect a 32% decrease in US oil/gas emissions by 2030 despite projected increases in production.

Tracing sources of atmospheric methane using clumped isotopes.

We apply a recently developed measurement technique for methane (CH4) isotopologues* (isotopic variants of CH4-13CH4, 12CH3D, 13CH3D, and 12CH2D2) to identify contributions to the atmospheric burden from fossil fuel and microbial sources. The aim of this study is to constrain factors that ultimately control the concentration of this potent greenhouse gas on global, regional, and local levels. While predictions of atmospheric methane isotopologues have been modeled, we present direct measurements that point to a different atmospheric methane composition and to a microbial flux with less clumping (greater deficits relative to stochastic) in both 13CH3D and 12CH2D2 than had been previously assigned. These differences make atmospheric isotopologue data sufficiently sensitive to variations in microbial to fossil fuel fluxes to distinguish between emissions scenarios such as those generated by different versions of EDGAR (the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), even when existing constraints on the atmospheric CH4 concentration profile as well as traditional isotopes are kept constant.

Polygenic subtype identified in ACCORD trial displays a favorable type 2 diabetes phenotype in the UKBiobank population.

INTRODUCTION: We previously identified a genetic subtype (C4) of type 2 diabetes (T2D), benefitting from intensive glycemia treatment in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. Here, we characterized the population of patients that met the C4 criteria in the UKBiobank cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using our polygenic score (PS), we identified C4 individuals in the UKBiobank and tested C4 status with risk of developing T2D, cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, and differences in T2D medications. RESULTS: C4 individuals were less likely to develop T2D, were slightly older at T2D diagnosis, had lower HbA1c values, and were less likely to be prescribed T2D medications (P < .05). Genetic variants in MAS1 and IGF2R, major components of the C4 PS, were associated with fewer overall T2D prescriptions. CONCLUSION: We have confirmed C4 individuals are a lower risk subpopulation of patients with T2D.

Baldur: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Label-Free Proteomics with Gamma Regressing Mean-Variance Trends.

Label-free proteomics is a fast-growing methodology to infer abundances in mass spectrometry proteomics. Extensive research has focused on spectral quantification and peptide identification. However, research toward modeling and understanding quantitative proteomics data is scarce. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical decision model (Baldur) to test for differences in means between conditions for proteins, peptides, and post-translational modifications. We developed a Bayesian regression model to characterize local mean-variance trends in data, to estimate measurement uncertainty and hyperparameters for the decision model. A key contribution is the development of a new gamma regression model that describes the mean-variance dependency as a mixture of a common and a latent trend-allowing for localized trend estimates. We then evaluate the performance of Baldur, limma-trend, and t test on six benchmark datasets: five total proteomics and one post-translational modification dataset. We find that Baldur drastically improves the decision in noisier post-translational modification data over limma-trend and t test. In addition, we see significant improvements using Baldur over the other methods in the total proteomics datasets. Finally, we analyzed Baldur's performance when increasing the number of replicates and found that the method always increases precision with sample size, while showing robust control of the false positive rate. We conclude that our model vastly improves over popular data analysis methods (limma-trend and t test) in several spike-in datasets by achieving a high true positive detection rate, while greatly reducing the false-positive rate.

Trends in social mobility in postrevolution China.

In this paper, we study long-term trends in social mobility in the People's Republic of China since its inception in 1949, with two operationalizations: 1) intergenerational occupational mobility and 2) intergenerational educational mobility. We draw on an accumulation of administrative and survey data and provide comparable estimates of these measures for birth cohorts born after 1945. To help interpret the results, we compare trends in China to those in the United States for the same birth cohorts. We find an increase in intergenerational occupational mobility in China due to its rapid industrialization in recent decades. Net of industrialization, however, intergenerational occupational mobility has been declining for recent cohorts. Intergenerational educational mobility in China shows a similar declining trend. In addition, mobility patterns have differed greatly by gender, with women in earlier cohorts and from a rural origin particularly disadvantaged. We attribute the general decline in social mobility to market forces that have taken hold since China's economic reform that began in 1978. In contrast, social mobility by both measures has been relatively stable in the United States. However, while social mobility in China has trended downward, it is still higher than that in the United States, except for women's educational mobility.

Rapid wage growth at the bottom has offset rising US inequality.

US earnings inequality has not increased in the last decade. This marks the first sustained reversal of rising earnings inequality since 1980. We document this shift across eight data sources using worker surveys, employer-reported data, and administrative data. The reversal is due to a shrinking gap between low-wage and median-wage workers. In contrast, the gap between top and median workers has persisted. Rising pay for low-wage workers is not mainly due to the changing composition of workers or jobs, minimum wage increases, or workplace-specific sources of inequality. Instead, it is due to broadly rising pay in low-wage occupations, which has particularly benefited workers in tightening labor markets. Rebounding post-Great Recession labor demand at the bottom offset enduring drivers of inequality.

Ischaemic stroke in women with atrial fibrillation: temporal trends and clinical implications.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Female sex has been linked with higher risk of ischaemic stroke (IS) in atrial fibrillation (AF), but no prior study has examined temporal trends in the IS risk associated with female sex. METHODS: The registry-linkage Finnish AntiCoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation (FinACAF) study included all patients with AF in Finland from 2007 to 2018. Ischaemic stroke rates and rate ratios were computed. RESULTS: Overall, 229 565 patients with new-onset AF were identified (50.0% women; mean age 72.7 years). The crude IS incidence was higher in women than in men across the entire study period (21.1 vs. 14.9 events per 1000 patient-years, P < .001), and the incidence decreased both in men and women. In 2007-08, female sex was independently associated with a 20%-30% higher IS rate in the adjusted analyses, but this association attenuated and became statistically non-significant by the end of the observation period. Similar trends were observed when time with and without oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment was analysed, as well as when only time without OAC use was considered. The decrease in IS rate was driven by patients with high IS risk, whereas in patients with low or moderate IS risk, female sex was not associated with a higher IS rate. CONCLUSIONS: The association between female sex and IS rate has decreased and become non-significant over the course of the study period from 2007 to 2018, suggesting that female sex could be omitted as a factor when estimating expected IS rates and the need for OAC therapy in patients with AF.

GPAD: a natural language processing-based application to extract the gene-disease association discovery information from OMIM.

BACKGROUND: Thousands of genes have been associated with different Mendelian conditions. One of the valuable sources to track these gene-disease associations (GDAs) is the Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) database. However, most of the information in OMIM is textual, and heterogeneous (e.g. summarized by different experts), which complicates automated reading and understanding of the data. Here, we used Natural Language Processing (NLP) to make a tool (Gene-Phenotype Association Discovery (GPAD)) that could syntactically process OMIM text and extract the data of interest. RESULTS: GPAD applies a series of language-based techniques to the text obtained from OMIM API to extract GDA discovery-related information. GPAD can inform when a particular gene was associated with a specific phenotype, as well as the type of validation-whether through model organisms or cohort-based patient-matching approaches-for such an association. GPAD extracted data was validated with published reports and was compared with large language model. Utilizing GPAD's extracted data, we analysed trends in GDA discoveries, noting a significant increase in their rate after the introduction of exome sequencing, rising from an average of about 150-250 discoveries each year. Contrary to hopes of resolving most GDAs for Mendelian disorders by now, our data indicate a substantial decline in discovery rates over the past five years (2017-2022). This decline appears to be linked to the increasing necessity for larger cohorts to substantiate GDAs. The rising use of zebrafish and Drosophila as model organisms in providing evidential support for GDAs is also observed. CONCLUSIONS: GPAD's real-time analyzing capacity offers an up-to-date view of GDA discovery and could help in planning and managing the research strategies. In future, this solution can be extended or modified to capture other information in OMIM and scientific literature.

Parsing 20 Years of Public Data by AI Maps Trends in Proteomics and Forecasts Technology.

The trends of the last 20 years in biotechnology were revealed using artificial intelligence and natural language processing (NLP) of publicly available data. Implementing this "science-of-science" approach, we capture convergent trends in the field of proteomics in both technology development and application across the phylogenetic tree of life. With major gaps in our knowledge about protein composition, structure, and location over time, we report trends in persistent, popular approaches and emerging technologies across 94 ideas from a corpus of 29 journals in PubMed over two decades. New metrics for clusters of these ideas reveal the progression and popularity of emerging approaches like single-cell, spatial, compositional, and chemical proteomics designed to better capture protein-level chemistry and biology. This analysis of the proteomics literature with advanced analytic tools quantifies the Rate of Rise for a next generation of technologies to better define, quantify, and visualize the multiple dimensions of the proteome that will transform our ability to measure and understand proteins in the coming decade.

Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study is to describe the time trend of type 2 diabetes incidence in the largest state of Germany, Bavaria, from 2012 to 2021, and to compare the incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020-2021) to the pre-pandemic period (2012-2019). METHODS: This secondary data analysis uses health claims data provided by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB), covering approximately 11 million insurees, accounting for 85% of the total population of Bavaria, Germany. Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (≥20 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic. RESULTS: Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 61 to 58 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change.

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Functional reorganization of North American wintering avifauna.

Wintering birds serve as vital climate sentinels, yet they are often overlooked in studies of avian diversity change. Here, we provide a continental-scale characterization of change in multifaceted wintering avifauna and examine the effects of climate change on these dynamics. We reveal a strong functional reorganization of wintering bird communities marked by a north-south gradient in functional diversity change, along with a superimposed mild east-west gradient in trait composition change. Assemblages in the northern United States saw contractions of the functional space and increases in functional evenness and originality, while the southern United States saw smaller contractions of the functional space and stasis in evenness and originality. Shifts in functional diversity were underlined by significant reshuffling in trait composition, particularly pronounced in the western and northern United States. Finally, we find strong contributions of climate change to this functional reorganization, underscoring the importance of wintering birds in tracking climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Trends in the incidence of colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa: A population-based registry study.

In sub-Saharan Africa, colorectal cancer (CRC) has historically been considered a rare disease, although some previous studies have suggested that the incidence is increasing. We examine time trends in the incidence of CRC using data from 12 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that were able to provide time series data for periods of 12 or more years, or with earlier data with which recent rates may be compared. Age-standardized incidence rates were highest in the higher-income countries, and were increasing in all of the populations studied, and these increases were statistically significant in all but three. Current evidence has suggested a link between the increased adoption of western lifestyle habits with colorectal cancer, and along with increasing urbanization of African populations, there is an increase in body weight, as well as evidence of increasing consumption of meat, sugars, and alcohol.

Trends in management and outcomes of colon cancer in the United States over 15 years: Analysis of the National Cancer Database.

Management of colon cancer has changed over the last few decades. We assessed the trends in management and outcomes using the US National Cancer Database (NCDB). A retrospective analysis of all patients with colonic adenocarcinoma between 2005 and 2019 was conducted. The cohort was divided into three equal time periods: Period 1 (2005-2009), Period 2 (2010-2014), and Period 3 (2015-2019) to examine treatment and outcomes trends. The primary outcome was 5-year overall survival (OS). The study included 923,275 patients. A significant increase in patients with stage IV disease was noted in Period 3 compared to Period 1 (47.9% vs. 27.9%, respectively), whereas a reciprocal reduction was seen in patients with locally advanced disease (stage II: 20.8%-12%; stage III: 14.5%-7.7%). Use of immunotherapy significantly increased from 0.3% to 7.6%. Mean 5-year OS increased (43.6 vs. 42.1 months) despite the increase in metastatic disease and longer time from diagnosis to definitive surgery (7 vs. 14 days). A reduction in 30-day readmission (5.1%-4.2%), 30- (3.9%-2.8%), and 90-day mortality (7.1%-5%) was seen. Laparoscopic and robotic surgery increased from 45.8% to 53.1% and 2.9% to 12.7%, respectively. Median postoperative length of hospital stay decreased by 2 days. Rate of positive resection margins (7.2%-6%) and median number of examined lymph nodes (14-16) also improved. Minimally invasive surgery and immunotherapy for colon cancer significantly increased in recent years. Patient outcomes including OS improved over time.

Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

Time trends of 16 modifiable risk factors on the burden of major cancers among the Chinese population.

The cancer burden in China is increasing. We aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence of 16 modifiable risk factors involved in lifestyle, diet, infection, and air pollution between 1997 and 2025 based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, the Global Burden of Disease website, and publically available studies. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 2007 to 2035 were calculated to quantify the attributable cancer burden in major 12 anatomic sites using the comparative risk assessment method, considering a 10-year lag effect. As a result, 1,559,476 cancer cases (PAF = 54.1%, 95% UI: 36.8%-65.8%) from the 12 anatomic sites were attributable to these modifiable risk factors in 2007, with lung, liver, and gastric cancer raging the top three. It was predicted that by 2035, the attributable cancer cases would reach 1,680,098 (PAF = 44.2%, 95% UI: 29.1%-55.5%), with the top three of lung, liver, and colorectal cancer. Smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit consumption, HBV infection, and Helicobacter pylori infection were the most attributable risk factors in 2007, contributing to 480,352, 233,684, 215,009, 214,455, and 187,305 associated cancer cases, respectively. In 2035, the leading factors for cancer would be smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit intake, HPV infection, and HBV infection, resulting in 427,445, 424,327, 185,144, 156,535, and 154,368 cancer cases, respectively. Intervention strategies should be swiftly established and dynamically altered in response to risk factors like smoking, physical inactivity, poor fruit intake, and infectious factors that may cause a high cancer burden in the Chinese population.

The InterSECT framework: A proposed model for explaining population-level trends in substance use and emotional concerns.

Across high-income countries, adolescent emotional concerns have been increasing in prevalence over the past two decades and it is unclear why this is occurring, including if and how substance use relates to these changing trends. On the other hand, substance use has been generally declining, and little is known about the role of emotional concerns in these trends. Several studies have explored the changes in co-occurring substance use and emotional concerns among adolescents over time, with mixed results and inconsistent messaging about the implications of the findings. In response, we developed a theoretical framework for exploring the intersection between trends in substance use and emotional health (InterSECT Framework). This framework includes a discussion and related examples for three core hypotheses: 1) strengthening of co-occurrence or the "hardening" hypothesis, 2) co-occurrence staying the same or the "consistency" hypothesis, and 3) weakening of co-occurrence or the "decoupling" hypothesis. This framework seeks to guide the conceptualization, evaluation, and understanding of changes in the co-occurrence of substance use and emotional concerns over time, including outlining a research agenda informed by pre-existing research and youth perspectives.

The Impact of Adjusting for Hysterectomy Prevalence on Cervical Cancer Incidence Rates and Trends Among Women Aged 30 Years and Older - United States, 2001-2019.

Hysterectomy protects against cervical cancer when the cervix is removed. However, measures of cervical cancer incidence often fail to exclude women with a hysterectomy from the population at risk denominator, underestimating and distorting disease burden. In this study, we estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to remove the women who were not at risk of cervical cancer from the denominator and combined these estimates with the United States Cancer Statistics data. From these data, we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for women aged >30 years from 2001-2019, adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence. We calculated the difference between unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates and examined trends by histology, age, race and ethnicity, and geographic region using Joinpoint regression. The hysterectomy-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate from 2001-2019 was 16.7 per 100,000 women-34.6% higher than the unadjusted rate. After adjustment, incidence rates were higher by approximately 55% among Black women, 56% among those living in the East South Central division, and 90% among women aged 70-79 and >80 years. These findings underscore the importance of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence to avoid underestimating cervical cancer incidence rates and masking disparities by age, race, and geographic region.