Observed changes in China's methane emissions linked to policy drivers.

China is set to actively reduce its methane emissions in the coming decade. A comprehensive evaluation of the current situation can provide a reference point for tracking the country's future progress. Here, using satellite and surface observations, we quantify China's methane emissions during 2010-2017. Including newly available data from a surface network across China greatly improves our ability to constrain emissions at subnational and sectoral levels. Our results show that recent changes in China's methane emissions are linked to energy, agricultural, and environmental policies. We find contrasting methane emission trends in different regions attributed to coal mining, reflecting region-dependent responses to China's energy policy of closing small coal mines (decreases in Southwest) and consolidating large coal mines (increases in North). Coordinated production of coalbed methane and coal in southern Shanxi effectively decreases methane emissions, despite increased coal production there. We also detect unexpected increases from rice cultivation over East and Central China, which is contributed by enhanced rates of crop-residue application, a factor not accounted for in current inventories. Our work identifies policy drivers of recent changes in China's methane emissions, providing input to formulating methane policy toward its climate goal.

The challenge of estimating global termite methane emissions.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, more potent than carbon dioxide, and emitted from a variety of natural sources including wetlands, permafrost, mammalian guts and termites. As increases in global temperatures continue to break records, quantifying the magnitudes of key methane sources has never been more pertinent. Over the last 40 years, the contribution of termites to the global methane budget has been subject to much debate. The most recent estimates of termite emissions range between 9 and 15 Tg CH4 year-1, approximately 4% of emissions from natural sources (excluding wetlands). However, we argue that the current approach for estimating termite contributions to the global methane budget is flawed. Key parameters, namely termite methane emissions from soil, deadwood, living tree stems, epigeal mounds and arboreal nests, are largely ignored in global estimates. This omission occurs because data are lacking and research objectives, crucially, neglect variation in termite ecology. Furthermore, inconsistencies in data collection methods prohibit the pooling of data required to compute global estimates. Here, we summarise the advances made over the last 40 years and illustrate how different aspects of termite ecology can influence the termite contribution to global methane emissions. Additionally, we highlight technological advances that may help researchers investigate termite methane emissions on a larger scale. Finally, we consider dynamic feedback mechanisms of climate warming and land-use change on termite methane emissions. We conclude that ultimately the global contribution of termites to atmospheric methane remains unknown and thus present an alternative framework for estimating their emissions. To significantly improve estimates, we outline outstanding questions to guide future research efforts.

Persistent net release of carbon dioxide and methane from an Alaskan lowland boreal peatland complex.

Permafrost degradation in peatlands is altering vegetation and soil properties and impacting net carbon storage. We studied four adjacent sites in Alaska with varied permafrost regimes, including a black spruce forest on a peat plateau with permafrost, two collapse scar bogs of different ages formed following thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements included year-round eddy covariance estimates of net carbon dioxide (CO2 ), mid-April to October methane (CH4 ) emissions, and environmental variables. From 2011 to 2022, annual rainfall was above the historical average, snow water equivalent increased, and snow-season duration shortened due to later snow return. Seasonally thawed active layer depths also increased. During this period, all ecosystems acted as slight annual sources of CO2 (13-59 g C m-2 year-1 ) and stronger sources of CH4 (11-14 g CH4 m-2 from ~April to October). The interannual variability of net ecosystem exchange was high, approximately ±100 g C m-2 year-1 , or twice what has been previously reported across other boreal sites. Net CO2 release was positively related to increased summer rainfall and winter snow water equivalent and later snow return. Controls over CH4 emissions were related to increased soil moisture and inundation status. The dominant emitter of carbon was the rich fen, which, in addition to being a source of CO2 , was also the largest CH4 emitter. These results suggest that the future carbon-source strength of boreal lowlands in Interior Alaska may be determined by the area occupied by minerotrophic fens, which are expected to become more abundant as permafrost thaw increases hydrologic connectivity. Since our measurements occur within close proximity of each other (≤1 km2 ), this study also has implications for the spatial scale and data used in benchmarking carbon cycle models and emphasizes the necessity of long-term measurements to identify carbon cycle process changes in a warming climate.

A Comprehensive Integration and Synthesis of Methane Emissions from Canada's Oil and Gas Value Chain.

Methane emissions from the global oil and gas value chain are a major contributor to climate change, and their mitigation could avoid 0.1 °C of warming by 2050. Here, we synthesize nearly a decade of research encompassing thousands of multiscale methane measurements along the oil and gas value chain (production to end use) to better constrain estimates of methane emissions from Canada's energy sector and to identify research gaps contributing to uncertainty in current estimates. We find that total value chain methane emissions are 2,600 (2,100-3,700) kt, which broadly agrees with Canada's latest official inventory that now includes atmospheric measurement data in some of their oil and gas methane estimates. Accurate understanding of emission magnitudes is critical because Canada committed to a 75% reduction of oil and gas methane emissions by 2030. We also identify and discuss information gaps in both emissions and activity data, namely, from the midstream, downstream, and end-use sectors. While they make up a smaller portion of the total inventory, accurate quantification of these emissions is still important and could point to more cost-effective mitigation solutions. This work emphasizes the need for frequent, comprehensive measurements to better constrain the climate impacts of the oil and gas sector and to validate reductions and commitments pledged by industry and governments.

Organic Matter Accumulation and Hydrology as Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Dynamics in Newly Developed Artificial Channels.

Artificial channels, common features of inland waters, have been suggested as significant contributors to methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) dynamics and emissions; however, the magnitude and drivers of their CH4 and CO2 emissions (diffusive and ebullitive) remain unclear. They are characterized by reduced flow compared to the donor river, which results in suspended organic matter (OM) accumulation. We propose that in such systems hydrological controls will be reduced and OM accumulation will control emissions by promoting methane production and outgassing. Here, we monitored summertime CH4 and CO2 concentrations and emissions on six newly constructed river-fed artificial channels, from bare riparian mineral soil to lotic channels, under two distinct flow regimes. Chamber-based fluxes were complemented with hydrology, total fluxes (diffusion + ebullition), and suspended OM accumulation assessments. During the first 6 weeks after the flooding, inflowing riverine water dominated the emissions over in-channel contributions. Afterwards, a substantial accumulation of riverine suspended OM (≥50% of the channel's volume) boosted in-channel methane production and led to widespread ebullition 10× higher than diffusive fluxes, regardless of the flow regime. Our finding suggests ebullition as a dominant pathway in these anthropogenic systems, and thus, their impact on regional methane emissions might have been largely underestimated.

The Role of Emission Size Distribution on the Efficacy of New Technologies to Reduce Methane Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sector.

Methane emissions from oil and gas operations exhibit skewed distributions. New technologies such as aerial-based leak detection surveys promise cost-effective detection of large emitters (greater than 10 kg/h). Recent policies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane rule that allow the use of new technologies as part of leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs require a demonstration of equivalence with existing optical gas imaging (OGI) based LDAR programs. In this work, we illustrate the impact of emission size distribution on the equivalency condition between the OGI and site-wide survey technologies. Emission size distributions compiled from aerial measurements include significantly more emitters between 1 and 10 kg/h and lower average emission rates for large emitters compared to the emission distribution in the EPA rule. As a result, we find that equivalence may be achieved at lower site-wide survey frequencies when using technologies with detection thresholds below 10 kg/h, compared to the EPA rule. However, equivalence cannot be achieved with a detection threshold of 30 kg/h at any survey frequency, because most emitters across most US basins exhibit emission rates below 30 kg/h. We find that equivalence is a complex tradeoff among technology choice, design of LDAR programs, and survey frequency that can have more than one unique solution set.

Unraveling Spatially Diverse and Interactive Regulatory Mechanisms of Wetland Methane Fluxes to Improve Emission Estimation.

Methane fluxes (FCH4) vary significantly across wetland ecosystems due to complex mechanisms, challenging accurate estimations. The interactions among environmental drivers, while crucial in regulating FCH4, have not been well understood. Here, the interactive effects of six environmental drivers on FCH4 were first analyzed using 396,322 half-hourly measurements from 22 sites across various wetland types and climate zones. Results reveal that soil temperature, latent heat turbulent flux, and ecosystem respiration primarily exerted direct effects on FCH4, while air temperature and gross primary productivity mainly exerted indirect effects by interacting with other drivers. Significant spatial variability in FCH4 regulatory mechanisms was highlighted, with different drivers demonstrated varying direct, indirect, and total effects among sites. This spatial variability was then linked to site-specific annual-average air temperature (17.7%) and water table (9.0%) conditions, allowing the categorization of CH4 sources into four groups with identified critical drivers. An improved estimation approach using a random forest model with three critical drivers was consequently proposed, offering accurate FCH4 predictions with fewer input requirements. By explicitly accounting for environmental interactions and interpreting spatial variability, this study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms regulating CH4 emissions, contributing to more efficient modeling and estimation of wetland FCH4.

Unaddressed Uncertainties When Scaling Regional Aircraft Emission Surveys to Basin Emission Estimates.

Wide-area aerial methods provide comprehensive screening of methane emissions from oil and gas (O & G) facilities in production basins. Emission detections ("plumes") from these studies are also frequently scaled to the basin level, but little is known regarding the uncertainties during scaling. This study analyzed an aircraft field study in the Denver-Julesburg basin to quantify how often plumes identified maintenance events, using a geospatial inventory of 12,629 O & G facilities. Study partners (7 midstream and production operators) provided the timing and location of 5910 maintenance events during the 6 week study period. Results indicated three substantial uncertainties with potential bias that were unaddressed in prior studies. First, plumes often detect maintenance events, which are large, short-duration, and poorly estimated by aircraft methods: 9.2 to 46% (38 to 52%) of plumes on production were likely known maintenance events. Second, plumes on midstream facilities were both infrequent and unpredictable, calling into question whether these estimates were representative of midstream emissions. Finally, 4 plumes attributed to O & G (19% of emissions detected by aircraft) were not aligned with any O & G location, indicating that the emissions had drifted downwind of some source. It is unclear how accurately aircraft methods estimate this type of plume; in this study, it had material impact on emission estimates. While aircraft surveys remain a powerful tool for identifying methane emissions on O & G facilities, this study indicates that additional data inputs, e.g., detailed GIS data, a more nuanced analysis of emission persistence and frequency, and improved sampling strategies are required to accurately scale plume estimates to basin emissions.

Tidal control on aerobic methane oxidation and mitigation of methane emissions from coastal mangrove sediments.

Mangrove forests represent important sources of methane, partly thwarting their ecosystem function as an efficient atmospheric carbon dioxide sink. Many studies have focused on the spatial and temporal variability of methane emissions from mangrove ecosystems, yet little is known about the microbial and physical controls on the release of biogenic methane from tidally influenced mangrove sediments. Here, we show that aerobic methane oxidation is a key microbial process that effectively reduces methane emissions from mangrove sediments. We further demonstrate clear links between the tidal cycle and fluctuations in methane fluxes, with contrasting methane emission rates under different tidal amplitudes. Our data suggest that both the microbial methane oxidation activity and pressure-induced advective transport modulated methane fluxes in the mangrove sediments. Methane oxidation activity is limited by the availability of oxygen in the surface sediments, which in turn is controlled by tidal dynamics, further highlighting the interactive physico-biogeochemical controls on biological methane fluxes. Although we found some molecular evidence for anaerobic methanotrophs in the deeper sediments, anaerobic methane oxidation seems to play only a minor role in the mangrove sediments, with potential rates being two orders of magnitude lower than those of aerobic methane oxidation. Our findings confirmed the importance of surface sediments as biological barrier for methane. Specifically, when sediments were exposed to the air, methane consumption increased by ∼227%, and the methane flux was reduced by ∼62%, compared to inundated conditions. Our data demonstrate how tides can orchestrate the daily rhythm of methane consumption and production within mangrove sediments, thus explaining the temporal variability of methane emissions in the tidally influenced coastal mangrove systems.

Long-term growth, feed efficiency, enteric methane emission, and blood metabolite responses to in utero hyperthermia in Holstein heifers.

Dairy producers are experiencing production and animal welfare pressures from the increasing frequency and severity of heat stress events due to global climate change. Offspring performance during the preweaning and lactating periods is compromised when exposed to heat stress during late gestation (in utero). However, knowledge of the lingering effects of in utero heat stress on yearling dairy heifers is limited. Herein, we investigated the long-term effects of in utero heat stress on heifer growth, feed efficiency, and enteric methane emissions in postpubertal heifers. During the last 56 d of gestation, 38 pregnant cows carrying heifer calves were exposed to either heat stress (IUHT; n = 17) or artificial cooling (IUCL; n = 21). At 18 ± 1 mo of age, the resulting IUCL and IUHT heifers were enrolled in the present 63-d study. Heifers were blocked by weight and randomly assigned to 3 pens with Calan gates. Body weights were recorded on 3 consecutive days at the start and end of the trial and used to calculate ADG. Body condition score, hip width, body length, and chest girth were measured at the start and end of the study. All heifers were fed a TMR comprised of 46.6% oatlage, 44.6% grass/alfalfa haylage, 7.7% male-sterile corn silage, 0.3% urea, and 0.8% mineral/vitamin supplement (on a DM basis). The TMR and refusal samples were obtained daily, composited weekly, and dried to calculate DMI. During the study, each pen had access to a GreenFeed unit for 8 ± 1d to measure CH4 and CO2 gas fluxes. During the last 3 d of measuring CH4 and CO2 fluxes, fecal samples were collected, composited by animal, dried, and analyzed to calculate NDF, OM, and DM digestibility. On the last day of fecal sampling, blood samples were also collected via coccygeal venipuncture, and GC time-of-flight MS analysis was performed. Residual feed intake (RFI; predicted DMI - observed DMI), and feed conversion efficiency (FCE; DMI/ADG) were calculated to estimate feed efficiency. No differences were found in initial or final BW, hip width, chest girth, or BCS; however, IUCL heifers were longer in body length compared with IUHT heifers. Dry matter intake, ADG, RFI, and FCE were similar between IUHT and IUCL heifers. In utero heat-stressed and IUCL heifers produced similar amounts of CH4 and CO2, and no differences were found in the number of GreenFeed visits or latency to approach the GreenFeed. The concentrations of 6 blood metabolites involved in lipogenic pathways were different between in utero treatments. In conclusion, in utero heat stress does not seem to have long-term effects on feed efficiency or methane emissions during the postpubertal growing phase; however, IUCL heifers maintained a body-length advantage over their IUHT counterparts and differed in concentrations of several candidate metabolites that encourage further exploration of their potential function in key organs, such as the liver and mammary gland.