Characteristics Associated with Reliability in Reporting of Contraceptive Use: Assessing the Reliability of the Contraceptive Calendar in Seven Countries.

Although the reproductive calendar is the primary tool for measuring contraceptive dynamics in low-income settings, the reliability of calendar data has seldom been evaluated, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal panel data. In this research, we evaluated the reproductive calendar using data from the Performance Monitoring for Action Project. We used population-based longitudinal data from nine settings in seven countries: Burkina Faso, Nigeria (Kano and Lagos States), Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa and Kongo Central Provinces), Kenya, Uganda, Cote d'Ivoire, and India. To evaluate reliability, we compared the baseline cross-sectional report of contraceptive use (overall and by contraceptive method), nonuse, or pregnancy with the retrospective reproductive calendar entry for the corresponding month, measured at follow-up. We use multivariable regressions to identify characteristics associated with reliability or reporting. Overall, we find that the reliability of the calendar is in the "moderate/substantial" range for nearly all geographies and tests (Kappa statistics between 0.58 and 0.81). Measures of the complexity of the calendar (number of contraceptive use episodes, using the long-acting method at baseline) are associated with reliability. We also find that women who were using contraception without their partners/husband's knowledge (i.e., covertly) were less likely to report reliably in several countries.

Appraisal of Headache Trigger Patterns Using Calendars.

OBJECTIVE: Using experimental, yet realistic, headache calendars, this laboratory study evaluated the ability of individuals to identify the degree of association between triggers and headaches. BACKGROUND: Individuals with headache often record daily diaries or calendars to identify their patterns of triggers. METHODS: This cross-sectional, observational study included adults with migraine, tension-type, or cluster headache who had ever experienced more than 5 attacks. Participants (N = 300) were presented with headache calendars and asked to rate the strength of the relationship (how strongly one causes the other) between 3 experimental triggers (high stress, poor sleep, and cinnamon) and headache using a 0 ("no relationship") to 10 ("perfect relationship") scale for each calendar. RESULTS: Calendars with a high positive correlation between trigger and headache had higher participant ratings than those with low correlations. The median [25th, 75th] of ratings for each correlation level was low correlation: 1 [0, 4], medium: 4 [2, 5], and high: 5 [4, 8], P < .0001. However, participants appeared to ignore negative associations (ie, trigger present with no headache) and rated calendars with more headache days as having higher associations, regardless of the true relationship. The ratings for 2, 6, and 26 headache days were 1 [0, 3], 4 [1, 6], and 8 [0, 10], respectively (P < .0001). Participants' previous beliefs about the triggers also affected their ratings (average correlation across triggers: r = 0.25, P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: This laboratory task supports the notion that individuals with headache are able to identify the association between headaches and triggers using headache calendars. However, these judgments can be biased by the individuals' previous beliefs about the trigger and by the degree of headache activity.

Constructing calendars in the brain.

By studying an enigmatic condition called, "calendar synesthesia", we explored the elusive boundary between perception, visual imagery, and the manner in which we construct an internal mental calendar by mapping time-sequences onto spatial maps. We use a series of demonstrations to establish that these calendars act more like real objects activating sensory pathways rather than purely abstract symbolic descriptions that bear no resemblance to an actual calendar. We propose that the calendar is enshrined in acircuitry involving the hippocampal place-cells and entorhinal grid-cells, which are connected to the angular gyrus (involved with computing sequences) via the inferior longitudinal fasciculus.

The Electronic Pain Management Life History Calendar: Development and Usability.

BACKGROUND: Changes over time to self-managed chronic pain treatments are not a routine part of pain management discussions and might provide insight into adjustments that improve pain outcomes. AIMS: The purpose of this study was to develop and test an electronic pain management life history calendar (ePMLHC) for use with older adults with chronic pain. DESIGN: An instrument development design was used to develop and test the ePMLHC. METHODS: Twenty-four community-dwelling older adults with osteoarthritis pain completed the ePMLHC describing their pain treatment regimens and treatment response history. Accuracy of the ePMLHC data was examined through post-ePMLHC audiorecorded interviews, with the older adults describing their pain treatment history. Feedback on use of the ePMLHC was also measured. An iterative process was used to refine and retest the ePMLHC. The final ePMLHC version was examined with the remaining 12 older adults. RESULTS: Significant differences between data reported via the ePMLHC and interviews did not support feasibility of independently reported data via the ePMLHC. Older adults reported that completing the ePMLHC helped them more fully self-reflect on their pain self-management. CONCLUSIONS: The ePMLHC has the potential to enhance communication about past pain management treatments and promote more personalized pain treatment regimens, but further development is required.

Using an interactive digital calendar with mobile phone reminders by senior people - a focus group study.

BACKGROUND: New technologies such as mobile/smartphones have the potential to help senior people perform everyday activities. However, senior people may find it difficult using mobile/smartphones, especially the digital calendar and short text message features. Therefore, senior people might need user-friendly, flexible, and interactive digital calendars that provide them with active reminders about their everyday activities. This study focuses on community dwelling seniors' experiences learning and using RemindMe, an interactive digital calendar with active reminders, as part of customizing an intervention appropriate for senior people with cognitive impairments. METHODS: Four focus groups were conducted with 20 community dwelling seniors (11 men and 9 women) who all had used RemindMe for six weeks. The focus groups were tape recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using content analysis. RESULTS: For participants in this study, using a calendar was an essential part of their everyday lives, but only a few had experiences using a digital calendar. Although the participants described RemindMe as easy to use, they had a difficult time incorporating RemindMe into their daily routines. In part, these difficulties were the result of the participants needing to change their mobile/smartphone routines. Some participants felt that using an interactive digital calendar was a sign of modernity allowing them to take part in the society at large, but others felt that their inability to use the technology was due to their age, dependence, and loss of function. Participants found that receiving active reminders through short text messages followed by actively acknowledging the reminder helped them perform more everyday life activities. This feature gave them a higher sense of independence and control. CONCLUSIONS: Community dwelling seniors found that RemindMe was easy to learn and to use, although they also found it challenging to integrate into their everyday lives. For senior people to make the effort to develop new routines for mobile/smartphone use, a prerequisite for using a digital calendar, they need to be motivated and believe that the technology will make their lives better.

Exponential Family Functional data analysis via a low-rank model.

In many applications, non-Gaussian data such as binary or count are observed over a continuous domain and there exists a smooth underlying structure for describing such data. We develop a new functional data method to deal with this kind of data when the data are regularly spaced on the continuous domain. Our method, referred to as Exponential Family Functional Principal Component Analysis (EFPCA), assumes the data are generated from an exponential family distribution, and the matrix of the canonical parameters has a low-rank structure. The proposed method flexibly accommodates not only the standard one-way functional data, but also two-way (or bivariate) functional data. In addition, we introduce a new cross validation method for estimating the latent rank of a generalized data matrix. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods using a comprehensive simulation study. The proposed method is also applied to a real application of the UK mortality study, where data are binomially distributed and two-way functional across age groups and calendar years. The results offer novel insights into the underlying mortality pattern.

Calendar time as an instrumental variable in assessing the risk of heart failure with antihyperglycemic drugs.

OBJECTIVE: In recent years, second-line diabetes treatment with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) increased with a corresponding decrease in thiazolidinediones (TZDs). Using hospitalization for heart failure (HF) as a positive control outcome, we explored the use of calendar time as an instrumental variable (IV) and compared this approach to an active comparator new-user study. METHODS: We identified DPP-4i or TZD initiators after a 6-month washout using Medicare claims 2006-2013. The IV was defined as a binary variable comparing initiators during October 2010 to December 2013 (postperiod) versus January 2008 to May 2010 (preperiod). We examined IV strength and estimated risk differences (RDs) for HF using Kaplan-Meier curves, which were compared with propensity score (PS)-weighted RD for DPP-4i versus TZD. RESULTS: The IV compared 22 696 initiators (78% DPP-4i) in the postperiod versus 20 283 initiators (38% DPP-4i) in the preperiod, resulting in 40% compliance. The active-comparator (PS-weighted) approach compared 26 198 DPP-4i and 18 842 TZD initiators. Covariate balance across IV levels was slightly better than across treatments (standardized difference, 3% vs 4.5%). The 1- and 2-year local average treatment effects of RD of HF per 100 patients in the "compliers" (95% confidence intervals) were -0.62 (-0.99 to -0.25) and -0.88 (-1.46 to -0.25). Corresponding PS-weighted results were -0.20 (-0.33 to -0.05) and -0.18 (-0.30 to 0.03). CONCLUSION: Both approaches indicated lesser risk of HF hospitalizations among DPP-4i vs TZD initiators. The magnitude of the estimated effects may differ due to differences in the target populations and assumptions. Calendar time can be leveraged as an IV when market dynamics lead to profound changes in treatments.

Study protocol of a 4- parallel arm, superiority, community based cluster randomized controlled trial comparing paper and e-platform based interventions to improve accuracy of recall of last menstrual period (LMP) dates in rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Gestational age (GA) is a key determinant of newborn survival and long-term impairment. Accurate estimation of GA facilitates timely provision of essential interventions to improve maternal and newborn outcomes. Menstrual based dating, ultrasound based dating, and neonatal estimates are the primarily used methods for assessing GA; all of which have some strength and weaknesses that require critical consideration. Last menstrual period (LMP) is simple, low-cost self-reported information, recommended by the World Health Organization for estimating GA but has issues of recall mainly among poorer, less educated women and women with irregular menstruation, undiagnosed abortion, and spotting during early pregnancy. Several studies have noted that about 20-50% of women cannot accurately recall the date of LMP. The goal of this study is therefore to improve recall and reporting of LMP and by doing so increase the accuracy of LMP based GA assessment in a rural population of Bangladesh where antenatal care-seeking, availability and utilization of USG is low. METHOD: We propose to conduct a 4- parallel arm, superiority, community based cluster randomized controlled trial comparing three interventions to improve recall of GA with a no intervention arm. The interventions include (i) counselling and a paper based calendar (ii) counselling and a cell phone based SMS alert system (iii) counselling and smart-phone application. The trial is being conducted among 3360 adolescent girls and recently married women in Mirzapur sub-district of Bangladesh. DISCUSSION: Enrolment of study participants continued from January 24, 2017 to March 29, 2017. Data collection and intervention implementation is ongoing and will end by February, 2019. Data analysis will measure efficacy of interventions in improving the recall of LMP date among enrolled participants. Results will be reported following CONSORT guideline. The innovative conventional & e-platform based interventions, if successful, can provide substantial evidence to scale-up in a low resource setting where m-Health initiatives are proliferating with active support from all sectors in policy and implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02944747 . The trial has been registered before starting enrolment on 24 October 2016.

Adult Age and Cultural Differences in Performance on the Weekly Calendar Planning Activity (WCPA).

OBJECTIVE: We compared performance on a cognitively demanding task, the Weekly Calendar Planning Activity, of participants in three age groups and two countries (United States and Israel). METHOD: A sample of 375 U.S. and 433 Israeli healthy adults participated. During the activity, participants were observed for speed, accuracy, strategy use, and efficiency. RESULTS: Accuracy scores were similar in both countries; however, Israeli participants were slower and less efficient (p < .05). The younger and middle-aged Israeli groups were more strategic and the older Israeli group followed fewer rules than the corresponding U.S. groups (p < .05). Older participants in both countries were less accurate, efficient, and strategic than younger participants (p < .05). CONCLUSION: Limited strategy use and poor time allocation may contribute to difficulty managing cognitively demanding activities for older adults and may also be influenced by culture. Practitioners should consider these factors when screening people for occupational performance difficulties.

Astronomy and calendar reform at the curia of Pope Clement VI: a new source.

The article introduces a previously unknown fourteenth-century treatise on computus and calendrical astronomy entitled Expositio kalendarii novi, whose author proposed elaborate solutions to the technical flaws inherent in the calendar used by the Roman Church. An analysis of verbal parallels to other contemporary works on the same topic makes it possible to establish that the Expositio was produced in the context of a calendar reform initiative led by Pope Clement VI in 1344/45 and that this anonymous text is probably identical to a 'great and laborious work' on the calendar that the monk Johannes de Termis prepared for the pope around this time. Its author strove to make an original contribution by extracting new astronomical parameters from both ancient and contemporary data, which made him arrive at an estimate of the length of the tropical year that was independent of the then-current Alfonsine Tables. With its suggestion to remove eleven days from the Julian calendar and to correct the calendar through modified leap-year rhythms and periodically adjusted sequences of lunar epacts, the proposal enshrined in the Expositio exhibits some remarkable similarities to the Gregorian reform of the calendar promulgated in 1582. Although its influence on the latter must remain a matter of speculation, the newly discovered text sheds a revealing light on the history of medieval calendar reform debates and on the mathematical sciences practiced at the Avignon court of Clement VI.

Emergency department imaging: are weather and calendar factors associated with imaging volume?

AIM: To identify weather and calendar factors that would enable prediction of daily emergency department (ED) imaging volume to aid appropriate scheduling of imaging resources for efficient ED function. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Daily ED triage and imaging volumes for radiography, computed tomography (CT), and ultrasound were obtained from hospital databases for the period between January 2011 and December 2013 at a large tertiary urban hospital with a Level II trauma centre. These data were tabulated alongside daily weather conditions (temperature, wind and precipitation), day of week, season, and holidays. Multivariate analysis was performed. Pearson correlations were used to measure the association between number of imaging studies performed and ED triage volume. RESULTS: For every additional 50 triaged patients, the odds of having high (imaging volume ≥90th percentile) radiography, CT, and ultrasound volume increased by 4.3 times (p<0.001), 1.5 times (p=0.02), and 1.4 times (p=0.02), respectively. Tuesday was an independent predictor of high radiography volume (odds ratio=2.8) and Monday was an independent predictor of high CT volume (odds ratio=3.0). Weekday status was an independent factor increasing the odds of a high US volume compared to Saturday (odds ratios ranging from 5.6-9.8). Weather factors and other calendar variables were not independent predictors of high imaging volume. Using Pearson correlations, ED triage volume correlated with number of radiographs, CT, and ultrasound examinations with r=0.73, 0.37, and 0.41, respectively (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: As ED triage volume was found to be the only factor associated with imaging volume for all techniques, analysis of predictors of ED triage volumes at a particular healthcare facility would be useful to determine imaging needs. Although calendar and weather factors were found to be minor or non-significant independent predictors of ED imaging utilisation, these may be important in influencing the actual number of ED triages.

The Pain Management Life History Calendar: A Pilot Study.

Pain management trajectory data that includes previous pain treatments, timing, changes, and outcomes provide crucial data for patients with chronic pain and their practitioners to use when discussing ways to optimize pain management regimens. The aim of this study was to test the use of the life history calendar method to identify pain treatments, treatment regimens, timing, and outcomes of the pain management trajectory of individuals with chronic pain, and to examine feasibility. A pilot, descriptive, methodological design was used. Settings included community-based sites such as congregate housing. Nineteen community-dwelling older adults with osteoarthritis (OA) pain of at least 1 year's duration participated. Participants were interviewed and asked to chronicle from the beginning of the OA pain to the present all of their pain treatments and treatment effects (pain outcomes and adverse events). Raters independently content analyzed the transcribed interviews to identify pain treatments, treatment groupings (regimens), and treatment effects on pain. Feasibility of patients reporting their pain management trajectories was content analyzed by identifying participant difficulty identifying pain treatments, treatment effects, treatment sequence; and difficulty discriminating between treatments, and between OA pain and other pain sources. Individual pain management trajectories were constructed that depicted chronological order of pain treatment regimens and treatment effects. Participants identified pain treatments, discriminate between treatments and between OA and other conditions, and identified treatment effects. Treatment sequence was identified, but more precise timing was generally not reported. Pain management trajectories could provide a helpful way for practitioners to discuss safe, efficacious pain management options with patients.

Daylight Saving Time Transitions: Impact on Total Mortality.

In Europe and many countries worldwide, a half-yearly changing time scheme has been adopted with the aim of optimizing the use of natural daylight during working hours and saving energy. Because the expected net economic benefit was not achieved, the discussion about the optimal solution has been reopened with a shifted focus on social and health related consequences. We set out to produce evidence for this discussion and analysed the impact of daylight saving time on total mortality of a general population in a time series study on daily total mortality for the years 1970-2018 in the city of Vienna, Austria. Daily deaths were modelled by Poisson regression controlling for seasonal and long-term trend, same-day and 14-day average temperature, humidity, and day of week. During the week after the spring transition a significant increase in daily total mortality of about 3% per day was observed. This was not the case during the week after the fall transition. The increase in daily mortality as observed in the week after spring DST-transition is most likely causally linked to the change in time scheme.

Students' Input on Preparing a Weekly Calendar of Individual Students in the Breast Surgery Clinical Clerkship.

Background; Until 2018, the Breast and Endocrine surgery had no student calendar. A questionnaire survey was conducted on how students felt by creating a weekly schedule of individual students from 2019. METHOD: 6th-year elective courses, targeted at students who selected Breast and Endocrine surgery clinical clerkship. The schedule clarifies the contents of the training as follows; outpatient visits, small group study (preparation for graduation and national exams including mammography reading), simulator training, and surgery. The questionnaire adopted an anonymous five-point evaluation method (5; I think very much; 4; Somewhat I think; 3; Normal; 2; Somewhat I don't think; 1; I don't think), and provided a free text box. The following seven questions were asked; A. I was able to send a good training, B. I was useful for studying national and graduation exams, C. Time constraints were appropriate, D. I could fully experience surgery, E. Appropriately experienced outpatients, F. Assignments (presented at conference) appropriate, G. I was interested in Breast and Endocrine surgery. RESULTS: Average values were A. 4.7, B. 4.9, C. 4.6, D. 4.9, E. 4.8, F. 4.7, G. 4.7. However, C and F received low ratings of 1 and 2. In the free text box, there were favorable opinions such as the fact that it was good to prepare for the national examination and that reading mammography was helpful. Conversely, there were some negative opinions, such as a time spent outpatient was too long, a difference in enthusiasm among the instructors, and a hope to see more at the first visit and to cope with the procedure. DISCUSSION: Preparing a weekly calendar of individual students generally yielded satisfactory results, but also highlighted the potential for future improvements in clinical clerkship.

Nurse to adolescent health communication process: approach to Event History Calendar.

OBJECTIVES: comprehend the Event History Calendar components that are relevant for the nurse to adolescent communicative process, in the context of Primary Health Care. METHODS: reflective study, based on the Event History Calendar approach, in the relational, communicative, and educational dimensions. RESULTS: best practices for adolescent health promotion are vital and constitute a challenge to nurses. The Event History Calendar is a potential tool for research and care practices to comprehend the needs of adolescents, with reminder of key personal events, culturally and socially specific. The comprehension of retrospective data referring to activities, behaviors, experiences and transitions of life, in certain periods of time, enables dialogue and new understandings about the history of adolescents. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: the Event History Calendar provides nursing professionals with an expansion of their practice in educational, relational, and communicative dimensions, as well as to instruct care planning and management.

Collecting Self-Reported Data on Dating Abuse Perpetration From a Sample of Primarily Black and Hispanic, Urban-Residing, Young Adults: A Comparison of Timeline Followback Interview and Interactive Voice Response Methods.

Dating abuse is a prevalent and consequential public health problem. However, relatively few studies have compared methods of collecting self-report data on dating abuse perpetration. This study compares two data collection methods-(a) the Timeline Followback (TLFB) retrospective reporting method, which makes use of a written calendar to prompt respondents' recall, and (b) an interactive voice response (IVR) system, which is a prospective telephone-based database system that necessitates respondents calling in and entering data using their telephone keypads. We collected 84 days of data on young adult dating abuse perpetration using IVR from a total of 60 respondents. Of these respondents, 41 (68%) completed a TLFB retrospective report pertaining to the same 84-day period after that time period had ended. A greater number of more severe dating abuse perpetration events were reported via the IVR system. Participants who reported any dating abuse perpetration were more likely to report more frequent abuse perpetration via the IVR than the TLFB (i.e., may have minimized the number of times they perpetrated dating abuse on the TLFB). The TLFB method did not result in a tapering off of reported events past the first week as it has in prior studies, but the IVR method did result in a tapering off of reported events after approximately the sixth week. We conclude that using an IVR system for self-reports of dating abuse perpetration may not have substantial advantages over using a TLFB method, but researchers' choice of mode may vary by research question, resources, sample, and setting.

Co-developing Indigenous seasonal calendars to support 'healthy Country, healthy people' outcomes.

In caring for Country, Indigenous Australians draw on laws, knowledge and customs that have been inherited from ancestors and ancestral beings, to ensure the continued health of lands and seas with which they have a traditional attachment or relationship. This is a reciprocal relationship, whereby land is understood to become wild/sick if not managed by its people, and in turn individuals and communities suffer without a maintained connection to Country. It is well understood by Indigenous people that if you 'look after country, country will look after you'. Indigenous knowledge systems that underpin the local care (including use and management) of Country are both unique and complex. These knowledge systems have been built through strong observational, practice-based methods that continue to be enacted and tested, and have sustained consecutive generations by adapting continually, if incrementally, to the local context over time. This paper describes a research partnership that involved the sharing and teaching of Ngan'gi Aboriginal ecological knowledge in order to reveal and promote the complex attachment of Ngan'gi language speakers of the Daly River, Australia, to water places. This engagement further led to the incremental co-development of an Indigenous seasonal calendar of aquatic resource use. The seasonal calendar emerged as an effective tool for supporting healthy Country, healthy people outcomes. It did this by facilitating the communication of resource management knowledge and connection with water-dependent ecosystems both inter-generationally within the Ngan'gi language group, as well as externally to non-Indigenous government water resource managers. The Indigenous seasonal calendar form has subsequently emerged as a tool Indigenous language groups are independently engaging with to document and communicate their own knowledge and understanding of Country, to build recognition and respect for their knowledge, and to make it accessible to future generations.

Indigenous ecological calendars and seasonal vector-borne diseases in the Colombian Amazon: an intercultural and interdisciplinary approach / Calendarios ecológicos indígenas y enfermedades estacionales transmitidas por vectores en la Amazonia colombiana: un enfoque intercultural e interdisciplinario

Traditional ecological knowledge of indigenous groups in the southeastern Colombian Amazon coincides in identifying the two main hydrological transition periods (wet-dry: August-November; dry-wet: March-April) as those with greater susceptibility to disease in humans. Here we analyze the association between indigenous knowledge about these two periods and the incidence of two vector-borne diseases: malaria and dengue. We researched seven "ecological calendars" from three regions in the Colombian Amazon, malaria and dengue cases reported from 2007 to 2019 by the Colombian National Institute of Health, and daily temperature and precipitation data from eight meteorological stations in the region from 1990-2019 (a climatological normal). Malaria and dengue follow a seasonal pattern: malaria has a peak from August to November, corresponding with the wet-dry transition (the "season of the worms" in the indigenous calendars), and dengue has a peak in March and April, coinciding with the dry-wet transition. Previous studies have shown a positive correlation between rainfall and dengue and a negative correlation between rainfall and malaria. However, as the indigenous ecological knowledge codified in the calendars suggests, disease prediction cannot be reduced to a linear correlation with a single environmental variable. Our data show that two major aspects of the indigenous calendars (the time of friaje as a critical marker of the year and the hydrological transition periods as periods of greater susceptibility to diseases) are supported by meteorological data and by the available information about the incidence of malaria and dengue.(AU)

Los conocimientos ecológicos tradicionales de grupos indígenas del sureste de la Amazonia colombiana coinciden en identificar dos principales periodos de transición hidrológica (seco-húmedo: agosto-noviembre; húmedo-seco: marzo-abril) como los de mayor susceptibilidad a enfermedades en humanos. Aquí analizamos la asociación entre el conocimiento indígena sobre estos dos periodos y la incidencia de dos enfermedades transmitidas por vectores: malaria y dengue. Investigamos siete calendarios ecológicos de tres regiones en la Amazonia colombiana, casos de dengue y malaria reportados de 2007 hasta 2019 por el Instituto Nacional de Salud de Colombia y datos diarios de temperatura y precipitación de ocho estaciones meteorológicas en la región, de 1990 a 2019 (una normal climatológica). Malaria y dengue siguen un patrón estacional, la malaria tiene un pico de agosto a noviembre, correspondiendo con la transición húmedo-seco (el "tiempo de gusano" según los calendarios indígenas), mientras que dengue tiene un pico de marzo a abril, coincidiendo con la transición seco-húmedo. Estudios previos mostraron una correlación positiva entre precipitación y dengue, y una correlación negativa entre precipitación y malaria. Sin embargo, como lo sugiere el conocimiento ecológico codificado en los calendarios indígenas, la predicción de enfermedades no puede reducirse a una correlación lineal con una sola variable medioambiental. Nuestros datos muestran que dos aspectos principales de los calendarios indígenas (el tiempo de friaje como un marcador crítico anual y los periodos de transición hidrológica como épocas de mayor susceptibilidad a enfermedades) están soportados por datos meteorológicos e información disponible acerca de la incidencia de malaria y dengue.(AU)