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1.
J Infect Dis ; 221(Suppl 4): S375-S382, 2020 05 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32034942

ABSTRACT

Bat-borne zoonotic pathogens belonging to the family Paramxyoviridae, including Nipah and Hendra viruses, and the family Filoviridae, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, can cause severe disease and high mortality rates on spillover into human populations. Surveillance efforts for henipaviruses and filoviruses have been largely restricted to the Old World; however, recent studies suggest a potentially broader distribution for henipaviruses and filoviruses than previously recognized. In the current study, we screened for henipaviruses and filoviruses in New World bats collected across 4 locations in Trinidad near the coast of Venezuela. Bat tissue samples were screened using previously established reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction assays. Serum were screened using a multiplex immunoassay to detect antibodies reactive with the envelope glycoprotein of viruses in the genus Henipavirus and the family Filoviridae. Serum samples were also screened by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for antibodies reactive with Nipah G and F glycoproteins. Of 84 serum samples, 28 were reactive with ≥1 henipavirus glycoprotein by ≥1 serological method, and 6 serum samples were reactive against ≥1 filovirus glycoproteins. These data provide evidence of potential circulation of viruses related to the henipaviruses and filoviruses in New World bats.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera/virology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Filoviridae , Henipavirus Infections/veterinary , Henipavirus , Animals , Chiroptera/blood , Chiroptera/classification , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Henipavirus Infections/epidemiology , Henipavirus Infections/virology , Serologic Tests , Trinidad and Tobago/epidemiology
2.
Curr Top Microbiol Immunol ; 411: 23-61, 2017.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28710694

ABSTRACT

Filoviruses can cause severe and often fatal disease in humans. To date, there have been 47 outbreaks resulting in more than 31,500 cases of human illness and over 13,200 reported deaths. Since their discovery, researchers from many scientific disciplines have worked to better understand the natural history of these deadly viruses. Citing original research wherever possible, this chapter reviews laboratory and field-based studies on filovirus ecology and summarizes efforts to identify where filoviruses persist in nature, how virus is transmitted to other animals and ultimately, what drivers cause spillover to human beings. Furthermore, this chapter discusses concepts on what constitutes a reservoir host and highlights challenges encountered while conducting research on filovirus ecology, particularly field-based investigations.


Subject(s)
Ecology , Filoviridae Infections/transmission , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Filoviridae , Animals , Disease Outbreaks , Filoviridae/isolation & purification , Filoviridae/pathogenicity , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Humans
3.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 23(3): 482-486, 2017 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28221123

ABSTRACT

Genetically divergent filoviruses detected in Rousettus and Eonycteris spp. bats in China exhibited 61%-99% nt identity with reported filoviruses, based on partial replicase sequences, and they demonstrated lung tropism. Co-infection with 4 different filoviruses was found in 1 bat. These results demonstrate that fruit bats are key reservoirs of filoviruses.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera/virology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Filoviridae/genetics , Genetic Variation , Animals , China/epidemiology , Filoviridae/isolation & purification , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Humans
4.
J Infect Dis ; 212 Suppl 2: S98-S100, 2015 Oct 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25821225

ABSTRACT

Personal protective equipment (PPE) is an important part of worker protection during filovirus outbreaks. The need to protect against a highly virulent fluid-borne pathogen in the tropical environment imposes a heat stress on the wearer that is itself a safety risk. No evidence supports the choice of PPE employed in recent outbreaks, and standard testing procedures employed by the protective garment industry do not well simulate filovirus exposure. Further research is needed to determine the appropriate PPE for filoviruses and the heat stress that it imposes.


Subject(s)
Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Filoviridae/pathogenicity , Personal Protective Equipment/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemics , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Humans
5.
J Infect Dis ; 212 Suppl 2: S101-8, 2015 Oct 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25786916

ABSTRACT

Fruit bats are suspected to be a natural reservoir of filoviruses, including Ebola and Marburg viruses. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on the viral glycoprotein antigens, we detected filovirus-specific immunoglobulin G antibodies in 71 of 748 serum samples collected from migratory fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) in Zambia during 2006-2013. Although antibodies to African filoviruses (eg, Zaire ebolavirus) were most prevalent, some serum samples showed distinct specificity for Reston ebolavirus, which that has thus far been found only in Asia. Interestingly, the transition of filovirus species causing outbreaks in Central and West Africa during 2005-2014 seemed to be synchronized with the change of the serologically dominant virus species in these bats. These data suggest the introduction of multiple species of filoviruses in the migratory bat population and point to the need for continued surveillance of filovirus infection of wild animals in sub-Saharan Africa, including hitherto nonendemic countries.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera/virology , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Filoviridae/immunology , Africa/epidemiology , Animals , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Asia/epidemiology , Cell Line , Chiroptera/blood , Chiroptera/immunology , Disease Outbreaks , Ebolavirus/immunology , Female , Filoviridae Infections/blood , Filoviridae Infections/immunology , Glycoproteins/immunology , HEK293 Cells , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/blood , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/immunology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Male , Prevalence , Viral Proteins/immunology
6.
Med Sci (Paris) ; 31(2): 143-50, 2015 Feb.
Article in French | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25744260

ABSTRACT

Filoviruses are responsible for highly lethal infections. Those viruses are found in intertropical areas of Africa and Asia where they circulate in their supposed natural reservoir, fruit bats. During filovirus outbreaks and depending on the strains, various modifications in hemostasis have been observed in patients. The disseminated intravascular coagulation identified in these infections is multicausal and involves both viral factors and abnormal physiological responses. In this review we will describe the mechanisms responsible for these disturbances and we will highlight some aspects of the basis of filovirus high pathogenicity.


Subject(s)
Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation/etiology , Filoviridae Infections/blood , Adrenal Cortex/pathology , Animals , Chiroptera/virology , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/blood , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/complications , Cytokines/metabolism , Disease Reservoirs , Endothelial Cells/pathology , Filoviridae/physiology , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/pathology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Haplorhini , Hepatocytes/pathology , Host-Pathogen Interactions , Humans , Necrosis , Recombinant Proteins/pharmacology , Recombinant Proteins/therapeutic use , Thromboplastin/antagonists & inhibitors , Thromboplastin/physiology , Viral Load , Viral Proteins/physiology
7.
Bull Acad Natl Med ; 198(7): 1423-36, 2014 Oct.
Article in French | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27120912

ABSTRACT

More than 1 240 species of bats are known; many of them are insectivorous, others are frugivorous and some american species are haematophagous. More than 100 diferent viruses are associated with these mammals, particularly Rhabdoviridae (Lyssavirus like rabies virus), Paramyxoviridae (like Nipah and Hendra viruses), Filoviridae (Ebola and Marburg viruses) and Coronavirida (viruses causing SARS and MERS). These infections are usually asymptomatic in bats but the mechanism of this tolerance is not yet understood. For those viruses, bats are efficient reservoirs and disseminators. So, they represent a significative risk for human and animal public health, that justifies to set up surveillance of bat-associated viruses and research programs about the particular immunity mechanisms of bats.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera/virology , Zoonoses/virology , Animals , Chiroptera/classification , Coronaviridae Infections/epidemiology , Coronaviridae Infections/veterinary , Disease Reservoirs/virology , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Humans , Paramyxoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Paramyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , Viruses/isolation & purification , Zoonoses/epidemiology
8.
Syst Rev ; 13(1): 218, 2024 Aug 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39148086

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Marburg virus disease (MVD) in sub-Saharan Africa illustrate the need to better understand animal reservoirs, burden of disease, and human transmission of filoviruses. This protocol outlines a systematic literature review to assess the prevalence of filoviruses that infect humans in sub-Saharan Africa. A secondary aim is to qualitatively describe and evaluate the assays used to assess prevalence. METHODS: The data sources for this systematic review include PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Titles, abstracts, and full texts will be reviewed for inclusion by a primary reviewer and then by a team of secondary reviewers, and data will be extracted using a pre-specified and piloted data extraction form. The review will include human cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials conducted in sub-Saharan Africa up until March 13, 2024 that have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, with no language restrictions. Prevalence will be stratified by pathogen, population, assay, and sampling methodology and presented in forest plots with estimated prevalence and 95% confidence intervals. If there are enough studies within a stratum, I2 statistics will be calculated (using R statistical software), and data will be pooled if heterogeneity is low. In addition, assays used to detect infection will be evaluated. All studies included in the review will be assessed for quality and risk of bias using the JBI Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool and for certainty using the GRADE certainty ratings. DISCUSSION: Accurately measuring the rate of exposure to filoviruses infecting humans in sub-Saharan Africa using prevalence provides an essential understanding of natural history, transmission, and the role of subclinical infection. This systematic review will identify research gaps and provide directions for future research seeking to improve our understanding of filovirus infections. Understanding the natural history, transmission, and the role of subclinical infection is critical for predicting the impact of an intervention on disease burden. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: In accordance with the guidelines outlined in the PRISMA-P methodology, this protocol was registered with PROSPERO on April 7, 2023 (ID: CRD42023415358).


Subject(s)
Filoviridae Infections , Systematic Reviews as Topic , Humans , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Prevalence , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Meta-Analysis as Topic , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Animals , Filoviridae
9.
Viruses ; 16(8)2024 Jul 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39205153

ABSTRACT

Filoviruses are negative-sense single-stranded RNA viruses often associated with severe and highly lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates, with case fatality rates as high as 90%. Of the known filoviruses, Ebola virus (EBOV), the prototype of the genus Orthoebolavirus, has been a major public health concern as it frequently causes outbreaks and was associated with an unprecedented outbreak in several Western African countries in 2013-2016, affecting 28,610 people, 11,308 of whom died. Thereafter, filovirus research mostly focused on EBOV, paying less attention to other equally deadly orthoebolaviruses (Sudan, Bundibugyo, and Taï Forest viruses) and orthomarburgviruses (Marburg and Ravn viruses). Some of these filoviruses have emerged in nonendemic areas, as exemplified by four Marburg disease outbreaks recorded in Guinea, Ghana, Tanzania, and Equatorial Guinea between 2021 and 2023. Similarly, the Sudan virus has reemerged in Uganda 10 years after the last recorded outbreak. Moreover, several novel bat-derived filoviruses have been discovered in the last 15 years (Lloviu virus, Bombali virus, Menglà virus, and Dehong virus), most of which are poorly characterized but may display a wide host range. These novel viruses have the potential to cause outbreaks in humans. Several gaps are yet to be addressed regarding known and emerging filoviruses. These gaps include the virus ecology and pathogenicity, mechanisms of zoonotic transmission, host range and susceptibility, and the development of specific medical countermeasures. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on non-Ebola filoviruses (Bombali virus, Bundibugyo virus, Reston virus, Sudan virus, Tai Forest virus, Marburg virus, Ravn virus, Lloviu virus, Menglà virus, and Dehong virus) and suggest some strategies to accelerate specific countermeasure development.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Filoviridae Infections , Filoviridae , Global Health , Humans , Animals , Filoviridae/pathogenicity , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Ebolavirus/physiology , Ebolavirus/pathogenicity , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Zoonoses/virology
10.
J Infect Dis ; 204 Suppl 3: S791-5, 2011 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21987752

ABSTRACT

Testing an innovative therapy for filovirus hemorrhagic fever (FHF) in an outbreak setting may be years away. Moreover, beyond anecdotal evidence, little is known about best practice for outbreak case management. Currently, Médecins Sans Frontières and others provide FHF patients with basic supportive treatment. We describe and discuss treatment possibilities, challenges, and potential next steps for FHF outbreak case management. More comprehensive supportive treatment, including vital sign monitoring, intensive care components, and goal-directed interventions may contribute to improved clinical outcome; the feasibility and effectiveness of this more comprehensive supportive treatment should be assessed. Our outlined summary may assist future FHF outbreak case management teams to create collaborative platforms and develop relevant treatment protocols aimed at improving clinical outcome.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Filoviridae/drug effects , Filoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Virus Replication/drug effects
11.
Viruses ; 13(7)2021 06 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34209295

ABSTRACT

Ebolaviruses and marburgviruses are filoviruses that are known to cause severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs). While some bat species are suspected to be natural reservoirs of these filoviruses, wild NHPs often act as intermediate hosts for viral transmission to humans. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we screened two NHP species, wild baboons and vervet monkeys captured in Zambia, for their serum IgG antibodies specific to the envelope glycoproteins of filoviruses. From 243 samples tested, 39 NHPs (16%) were found to be seropositive either for ebolaviruses or marburgviruses with endpoint antibody titers ranging from 100 to 25,600. Interestingly, antibodies reactive to Reston virus, which is found only in Asia, were detected in both NHP species. There was a significant difference in the seropositivity for the marburgvirus antigen between the two NHP species, with baboons having a higher positive rate. These results suggest that wild NHPs in Zambia might be nonlethally exposed to these filoviruses, and this emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of filovirus infection in wild animals to better understand the ecology of filoviruses and to assess potential risks of outbreaks in humans in previously nonendemic countries.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , Filoviridae Infections/immunology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Filoviridae/immunology , Primates/virology , Animals , Animals, Wild/virology , Chlorocebus aethiops/virology , Ebolavirus/immunology , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay/methods , Female , Filoviridae/classification , Filoviridae/isolation & purification , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Male , Marburgvirus/immunology , Papio/virology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Zambia/epidemiology
13.
Emerg Microbes Infect ; 9(1): 124-128, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31913767

ABSTRACT

A serological survey of 2,430 archived serum samples collected between 1997 and 2012 was conducted to retrospectively determine the prevalence of Marburg virus in five African countries. Serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies in a pseudotype micro-neutralization assay and confirmed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Surprisingly, a seroprevalence for Marburg virus of 7.5 and 6.3% was found in Cameroon and Ghana, respectively, suggesting the circulation of filoviruses or related viruses outside of known endemic areas that remain undetected by current surveillance efforts. However, due to the lack of validated assays and appropriate positive controls, these results must be considered preliminary.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , Filoviridae/immunology , Marburg Virus Disease/blood , Marburg Virus Disease/epidemiology , Marburgvirus/immunology , Animals , Cameroon/epidemiology , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , Filoviridae/genetics , Filoviridae Infections/blood , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Ghana/epidemiology , Humans , Marburg Virus Disease/virology , Marburgvirus/genetics , Retrospective Studies , Seroepidemiologic Studies
15.
Viruses ; 11(4)2019 04 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31010201

ABSTRACT

Although Lloviu virus (LLOV) was discovered in the carcasses of insectivorous Schreiber's Bent-winged bats in the caves of Northern Spain in 2002, its infectivity and pathogenicity remain unclear. We examined the seroprevalence of LLOV in potentially exposed Schreiber's Bent-winged bats (n = 60), common serotine bats (n = 10) as controls, and humans (n = 22) using an immunoblot assay. We found antibodies against LLOV GP2 in all of Schreiber's Bent-winged bats serum pools, but not in any of the common serotine bats and human pools tested. To confirm this seroreactivity, 52 serums were individually tested using Domain Programmable Arrays (DPA), a phage display based-system serology technique for profiling filovirus epitopes. A serological signature against different LLOV proteins was obtained in 19/52 samples tested (36.5%). The immunodominant response was in the majority specific to LLOV-unique epitopes, confirming that the serological response detected was to LLOV. To our knowledge, this is the first serological evidence of LLOV exposure in live captured Schreiber's Bent-winged bats, dissociating LLOV circulation as the cause of the previously reported die-offs.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , Chiroptera/virology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Filoviridae/immunology , Viral Proteins/immunology , Animals , Cell Surface Display Techniques , Chiroptera/immunology , Female , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/immunology , Humans , Male , Prevalence , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Spain/epidemiology
16.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 13(10): e0007733, 2019 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31671094

ABSTRACT

Bats are reservoirs for several zoonotic pathogens, including filoviruses. Recent work highlights the diversity of bat borne filoviruses in Asia. High risk activities at the bat-human interface pose the threat of zoonotic virus transmission. We present evidence for prior exposure of bat harvesters and two resident fruit bat species to filovirus surface glycoproteins by screening sera in a multiplexed serological assay. Antibodies reactive to two antigenically distinct filoviruses were detected in human sera and to three individual filoviruses in bats in remote Northeast India. Sera obtained from Eonycteris spelaea bats showed similar patterns of cross-reactivity as human samples, suggesting them as the species responsible for the spillover. In contrast, sera from Rousettus leschenaultii bats reacted to two different virus glycoproteins. Our results indicate circulation of several filoviruses in bats and the possibility for filovirus transmission from bats to humans.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , Chiroptera/immunology , Chiroptera/virology , Disease Reservoirs/virology , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Filoviridae/immunology , Adolescent , Adult , Animals , Chiroptera/blood , Ebolavirus/immunology , Filoviridae/classification , Filoviridae/isolation & purification , Filoviridae Infections/immunology , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Geographic Mapping , Glycoproteins/immunology , Humans , India/epidemiology , Membrane Glycoproteins , Middle Aged , Phylogeny , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Young Adult
17.
Curr Top Microbiol Immunol ; 315: 363-87, 2007.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17848072

ABSTRACT

Since Ebola fever emerged in Central Africa in 1976, a number of studies have been undertaken to investigate its natural history and to characterize its transmission from a hypothetical reservoir host(s) to humans. This research has comprised investigations on a variety of animals and their characterization as intermediate, incidental, amplifying, reservoir, or vector hosts. A viral transmission chain was recently unveiled after a long absence of epidemic Ebola fever. Animal trapping missions were carried out in the Central African rain forest in an area where several epidemics and epizootics had occurred between 2001 and 2005. Among the various animals captured and analyzed, three species of fruit bats (suborder Megachiroptera) were found asymptomatically and naturally infected with Ebola virus: Hypsignathus monstrosus (hammer-headed fruit beats), Epomops franqueti (singing fruit bats), and Myonycteris torquata (little collared fruit bats). From experimental data, serological studies and virus genetic analysis, these findings confirm the importance of these bat species as potential reservoir species of Ebola virus in Central Africa. While feeding bats drop partially eaten fruit and masticated fruit pulp (spats) to the ground, possibly promoting indirect transmission of Ebola virus to certain ground dwelling mammals, if virus is being shed in saliva by chronically and asymptomatically infected bats. Great apes and forest duikers are particularly sensitive to lethal Ebola virus infection. These terrestrial mammals feed on fallen fruits and possibly spats, suggesting a chain of events leading to Ebola virus spillover to these incidental hosts. This chain of events may occur sporadically at different sites and times depending on a combination of the phenology of fruit production by different trees, animal behavior, and various, but as yet still unknown environmental factors, which could include drought. During the reproductive period, infected body fluid can also be shed in the environment and present a potential risk for indirect transmission to other vertebrates.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera/virology , Disease Reservoirs/veterinary , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/veterinary , Primates/virology , Animals , Ebolavirus , Filoviridae/pathogenicity , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Filoviridae Infections/transmission , Filoviridae Infections/virology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology , Humans , Risk Assessment , Species Specificity , Zoonoses
18.
Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther ; 16(1): 67-76, 2018 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29210303

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: During the 2014-2016 Ebolavirus (EBOV) outbreak, several candidate therapeutics were used in EBOV-infected patients in clinical trials and under expanded access for emergency use. This review will focus briefly on medications used during the outbreak. We will discuss current therapeutic candidates and their status and will then turn to a related and essential topic: supportive care and the standard of care for filovirus infected patients. Potential benefits and pitfalls of combination therapies for filoviruses will be discussed. Areas covered: Clinical trials of therapeutics targeting EBOV; clinical usage of therapeutics during recent EBOV outbreak; potential need for combination therapy; role of supportive care in treatment of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Expert commentary: In the absence of another large scale EBOV outbreak, the path to therapeutic product licensure in the United States of America (USA) would need to be via the FDA Animal Rule. However, human data may be needed to supplement animal data. The future of filovirus therapeutics may therefore benefit by establishing the ability to implement clinical trials in an outbreak setting in a timely fashion. Supportive care guidelines for filovirus infection should be defined and established as standard of care for treatment of EVD.


Subject(s)
Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Disease Outbreaks , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/drug therapy , Animals , Antiviral Agents/administration & dosage , Drug Approval , Drug Design , Drug Therapy, Combination , Ebolavirus/drug effects , Ebolavirus/isolation & purification , Filoviridae/drug effects , Filoviridae/isolation & purification , Filoviridae Infections/drug therapy , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Humans
19.
Sci Rep ; 8(1): 7970, 2018 05 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29789619

ABSTRACT

Tools with predictive capabilities in regards of filovirus outbreaks are mainly anthropocentric and have disregarded the ecological dimension of the problem. Here we contribute to shift the current paradigm by studying the dynamics of the putative main zoonotic niche of filoviruses, bats, and its link to environmental drivers. We propose a framework that combines data analysis, modeling, and the evaluation of sources of variability. We implement a regression analysis using factual data to correlate environmental parameters and the presence of bats to find the distribution of resources. The information inferred by the regression is fed into a compartmental model that describes the infection state. We also account for the lack of knowledge of some parameters using a sampling/averaging technique. As a result we estimate the spatio-temporal densities of bats. Importantly, we show that our approach is able to predict where and when an outbreak is likely to appear when tested against recent epidemic data in the context of Ebola. Our framework highlights the importance of considering the feedback between the ecology and the environment in zoonotic models and sheds light on the mechanisms to propagate filoviruses geographically. We expect that our methodology can help to design prevention policies and be used as a predictive tool in the context of zoonotic diseases associated to filoviruses.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera , Filoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Forecasting , Animals , Demography , Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Ebolavirus/isolation & purification , Ecology , Epidemics , Filoviridae Infections/diagnosis , Filoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Filoviridae Infections/veterinary , Forecasting/methods , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/veterinary , Humans , Population Forecast , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Zoonoses/prevention & control
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