Understudied and underaddressed: Femicide, an extreme form of violence against women and girls.

Little is known about the prevalence and dynamics of femicide, a persistent form of violence against women and girls, due to challenges associated with its documentation. Research by Abrahams and colleagues comparing rates of femicide in South Africa over 18 years, however, suggests that femicide is preventable.

Toward a clearer understanding of what works to reduce gun violence: the role of falsification strategies.

Strong epidemiologic evidence from ecological and individual-level studies in the United States supports the claim that access to firearms substantially increases the risk of dying by suicide, homicide, and firearm accidents. Less certain is how well particular interventions work to prevent these deaths and other firearm-related harms. Given the limits of existing data to study firearm violence and the infeasibility of conducting randomized trials of firearm access, it is important to do the best we can with the data we already have. We argue that falsification strategies are a critical-yet underutilized-component of any such analytical approach. The falsification strategies we focus on are versions of "negative controls" analyses in which we expect that an analysis should yield a null causal effect, and thus where not obtaining a null effect estimate raises questions about the assumptions underlying causal interpretation of a study's findings. We illustrate the saliency of this issue today with examples drawn from studies published in leading peer-reviewed journals within the last 5 years. Collecting rich, high-quality data always takes time, urgent as the need may be. On the other hand, doing better with the data we already have can start right now.

Investing in family-centered early childhood education: A conceptual model for preventing firearm homicide among Black male youth in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Firearms are now the number one killer of children and adolescents in the United States. Firearm homicides among Black male youth are the driver of this increase. Prevention requires a multi-faceted life course approach. Academic achievement has been identified as a protective factor. Early childhood education, which is linked to later achievement, is thus an intervention area of interest. Conceptualizing the potential links between early childhood education and reduced risk for youth firearm homicide is important for guiding policy advocacy and informing future research. METHODS: This paper presents a conceptual model linking early childhood education to reduced risk for firearm homicide. Each link in the model is discussed, and a corresponding review of the literature is presented. The need for anti-racist policies to strengthen the impact of early childhood education is highlighted. RESULTS: Early education and firearm homicide research are each well-established but largely disconnected. There are clear immediate benefits of early childhood education; however, these effects wane with time, particularly for youth of color. At the same time, juvenile delinquency-a major risk factor for firearm homicide-is influenced by educational inequities. CONCLUSIONS: Effective interventions to reduce firearm homicides among Black male youth in the United States are needed. Early childhood education shows promise as an intervention. However, to have an impact, this education needs to be accessible and affordable for all, particularly families of color and low income. Societal structures and policies must also better support the positive gains seen through early childhood education to avoid dissipation.

Invited Commentary: Concealed Carrying of Firearms, Public Policy, and Opportunities for Mitigating Harm.

In the last 30 years, 25 US states have relaxed laws regulating the concealed carrying of firearms (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws). These changes may have substantial impacts on violent crime. In a recent study, Doucette et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(3):342-355) used a synthetic control approach to assess the effects of shifting from more restrictive "may/no-issue" CCW laws to less restrictive "shall-issue" CCW laws on homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies involving a gun or committed by other means. The study adds to the evidence that more permissive CCW laws have probably increased rates of firearm assault in states adopting these laws. Importantly, this study is the first to identify that specific provisions of shall-issue CCW laws-including denying permits to persons with violent misdemeanor convictions, a history of dangerous behavior, or "questionable character" and live-fire training requirements-may help mitigate harms associated with shall-issue CCW laws. These findings are timely and salient given the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down a defining element of may-issue laws. This thorough study offers actionable results and provides a methodological model for state firearm policy evaluations. Its limitations reflect the needs of the field more broadly: greater focus on racial/ethnic equity and within-state variation, plus strengthening the data infrastructure on firearm violence and crime.

Association Between the New York SAFE Act and Firearm Suicide and Homicide: An Analysis of Synthetic Controls, New York State, 1999‒2019.

Objectives. To assess the association between the New York Secure Ammunition and Firearms Enforcement Act (NY SAFE Act) and firearm suicide and homicide rates. Methods. We employed a synthetic controls approach to investigate the impact of the NY SAFE Act on firearm suicide and firearm homicide rates. We collected state-level data on firearm mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database for the period 1999-2019. We derived statistical inference by using a permutation-based in-place placebo test. Results. The implementation of the NY SAFE Act was associated with a significant reduction in firearm homicide rates, demonstrating a decrease of 63%. This decrease corresponds to an estimated prevention of 1697 deaths between 2013 and 2019. However, there was no association between the NY SAFE Act and firearm suicide rates. Conclusions. As the responsibility for enacting firearm policies increasingly falls on states instead of the federal government, this study provides valuable information that can assist states in making evidence-based decisions regarding the development and implementation of firearm policies that prioritize public safety and aim to prevent firearm-related fatalities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(12):1309-1317. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307400).

Association Between Child Access Prevention and State Firearm Laws With Pediatric Firearm-Related Deaths.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to study the association between state child access prevention (CAP) and overall firearm laws with pediatric firearm-related mortality. METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System was queried for pediatric (aged < 18 y) all-intent (accidental, suicide, and homicide) firearm-related crude death rates (CDRs) among the 50 states from 1999 to 2019. States were into three groups: Always CAP (throughout the 20-year period), Never CAP, and New CAP (enacted CAP during study period). We used the Giffords Law Center Annual Gun Law Scorecard (A, B, C, D, F) to group states into strict (A, B) and lenient (C, D, F) firearm laws. A scatter plot was constructed to display state CDR based on CAP laws by year. The top 10 states by CDR per year were tabulated based on CAP law status. Wilcoxon rank-sum was used to compare CDR between strict and lenient scorecard states in 2019. RESULTS: There were 12 Always CAP, 21 Never CAP, and 17 New CAP states from 1999 to 2019. No states changed from CAP laws to no CAP laws. Never CAP and New CAP states dominated the high outliers in CDR compared to Always CAP. The top 10 states with the highest CDR per year were most commonly Never CAP. Strict firearm laws states had lower median CDR in 2019 than lenient states (0.79 [0-1.67] versus 2.59 [1.66-3.53], P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Stricter overall gun laws are associated with three-fold lower all-intent pediatric firearm-related deaths. For 2 decades, the 10 states with the highest CDR were almost universally those without CAP laws. Our findings support the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative's claims on the importance of CAP laws in reducing suicide, unintentional deaths, and violent crime among children, but more research is needed.

Legal Firearm Sales at State Level and Rates of Violent Crime, Property Crime, and Homicides.

INTRODUCTION: The effects of firearm sales and legislation on crime and violence are intensely debated, with multiple studies yielding differing results. We hypothesized that increased lawful firearm sales would not be associated with the rates of crime and homicide when studied using a robust statistical method. METHODS: National and state rates of crime and homicide during 1999-2015 were obtained from the United States Department of Justice and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Instant Criminal Background Check System background checks were used as a surrogate for lawful firearm sales. A general multiple linear regression model using log event rates was used to assess the effect of firearm sales on crime and homicide rates. Additional modeling was then performed on a state basis using an autoregressive correlation structure with generalized estimating equation estimates for standard errors to adjust for the interdependence of variables year to year within a particular state. RESULTS: Nationally, all crime rates except the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-designated firearm homicides decreased as firearm sales increased over the study period. Using a naive national model, increases in firearm sales were associated with significant decreases in multiple crime categories. However, a more robust analysis using generalized estimating equation estimates on state-level data demonstrated increases in firearms sales were not associated with changes in any crime variables examined. CONCLUSIONS: Robust analysis does not identify an association between increased lawful firearm sales and rates of crime or homicide. Based on this, it is unclear if efforts to limit lawful firearm sales would have any effect on rates of crime, homicide, or injuries from violence committed with firearms.

Costs of Summer Youth Employment to Prevent Violence: an Analysis and Implementer's Tool.

Gun homicide rates have risen 35% across the USA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. One promising intervention to prevent violent crime is summer youth employment programs (SYEPs), which provide youth with meaningful workplace experiences, prosocial engagements, and developmental opportunities during the summer months, when many otherwise lack structure. This paper presents a cost analysis of violence prevention-focused SYEPs to help implementers understand the costs generally and in their own community contexts-to advocate for adoption and secure funding of, effectively budget for, and successfully implement SYEPs. Researchers use an ingredient-based costing approach and provide a template for implementers to use and adapt for their context. SYEPs with the goal of reaching youth who are justice-involved or at risk of being victims or perpetrators of violence can cost $3331 per youth assisted, with 54% of this cost directly paid to youth through stipends. Cost per youth is driven by the intensity of the mentoring and support that community organizations provide to the program participants. Knowing the cost per youth assisted can inform further analysis, implementation, and expansion of SYEPs.

Quasi-experimental study finding no localised gun crime or call reduction after gun buybacks in Philadelphia.

INTRODUCTION: Gun buyback programmes have been popular in the USA since the 1970s. Studies show that they have no effect on citywide gun crime rates, but more microlevel examinations around gun buyback locations have not been conducted. This study tests for local effects of 34 Philadelphia, PA buyback events at 30 locations between 2019 and 2021. METHODS: We analysed all gun-related crime events and gun-related calls for service attended by the police from 2019 to 2021. Multilevel models with an autoregressive residual structure were estimated on weekly gun crime and call event intensity (inverse distance weighted) totals across a range of distances (4000-8000 feet). Impacts of a gun buyback event were estimated for 1-4 weeks postevent. RESULTS: Statistically significant weekly increases in gun event intensity are associated with seasonality and after the murder of George Floyd. Gun event intensity was not significantly affected by gun buybacks. Across 20 sensitivity tests of different distances and time periods (4000-8000 feet and between 1 and 4 weeks), gun buybacks were not statistically associated with any localised reduction in the intensity of gun crimes and calls. CONCLUSIONS: Extant research has failed to uncover any effect of gun buybacks on citywide gun crime rates. The current results now contribute a lack of evidence at the local level to this literature. While gun buybacks remain popular with politicians and the public, this study adds to the ongoing question of whether buyback funds could be better spent more effectively.

Homicide Deaths Among Adult Cohabitants of Handgun Owners in California, 2004 to 2016 : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Although personal protection is a major motivation for purchasing firearms, existing studies suggest that people living in homes with firearms have higher risks for dying by homicide. Distribution of those risks among household members is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between living with a lawful handgun owner and risk for homicide victimization. DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study followed 17.6 million adult residents of California for up to 12 years 2 months (18 October 2004 through 31 December 2016). Cohort members did not own handguns, but some started residing with lawful handgun owners during follow-up. SETTING: California. PARTICIPANTS: 17 569 096 voter registrants aged 21 years or older. MEASUREMENTS: Homicide (overall, by firearm, and by other methods) and homicide occurring in the victim's home. RESULTS: Of 595 448 cohort members who commenced residing with handgun owners, two thirds were women. A total of 737 012 cohort members died; 2293 died by homicide. Overall rates of homicide were more than twice as high among cohabitants of handgun owners than among cohabitants of nonowners (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.78 to 3.05]). These elevated rates were driven largely by higher rates of homicide by firearm (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.83 [CI, 2.05 to 3.91]). Among homicides occurring at home, cohabitants of owners had sevenfold higher rates of being fatally shot by a spouse or intimate partner (adjusted hazard ratio, 7.16 [CI, 4.04 to 12.69]); 84% of these victims were female. LIMITATIONS: Some cohort members classified as unexposed may have lived in homes with handguns. Residents of homes with and without handguns may have differed on unobserved traits associated with homicide risk. CONCLUSION: Living with a handgun owner is associated with substantially elevated risk for dying by homicide. Women are disproportionately affected. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: The National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, the Fund for a Safer Future, the Joyce Foundation, Stanford Law School, and the Stanford University School of Medicine.

Extreme risk protection orders in response to threats of multiple victim/mass shooting in six U.S. states: A descriptive study.

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs), also known as red flag laws, are a potential tool to prevent firearm violence, including mass shootings, but little is currently known about the extent of their use in cases of mass shooting threats or about the threats themselves. We collected and abstracted information from ERPO cases from six states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington). Ten percent (N = 662) of all ERPO cases (N = 6787) were in response to a threat of killing at least 3 people. Using these cases, we created a typology of multiple victim/mass shooting threats, the most common of which was the maximum casualty threat. The most common target for a multiple victim/mass shooting threat was a K-12 school, followed by businesses, then intimate partners and their children and families. Judges granted 93% of petitions that involved these threats at the temporary ERPO stage and, of those cases in which a final hearing was held, judges granted 84% of final ERPOs. While we cannot know how many of the 662 ERPO cases precipitated by a threat would have resulted in a multiple victim/mass shooting event had ERPO laws not been used to prohibit the purchase and possession of firearms, the study provides evidence at least that ERPOs are being used in six states in a substantial number of these kinds of cases that could have ended in tragedy.

A trauma-informed approach to understanding firearm decision-making among Black adolescents: Implications for prevention.

Firearm violence remains a public health crisis in marginalized, urban communities, with Black adolescents bearing the burden of firearm homicides and injuries. As such, the prevention of firearm violence among adolescents has moved to a high priority of the U.S. public health agenda. The current paper reviews recent literature to highlight the heterogeneity in firearm behavior among Black adolescents and underscore the need for additional research on decision-making and firearm behavior to better understand how adolescents make decisions to acquire, carry, and use firearms. Through a discussion of the disproportionate levels of trauma exposure and trauma symptoms experienced by Black adolescents, the current paper also proposes a trauma-informed approach to understanding decision-making for risky firearm behavior. We discuss the broader impacts of this approach, including the development of a more comprehensive and contextually relevant understanding of the variability in risky firearm behavior and improvements in risk screening capabilities and preventive intervention strategies.

Preventing Urban Firearm Homicides during COVID-19: Preliminary Results from Three Cities with the Advance Peace Program.

The years 2020-2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed increases in firearm violence in many cities across the USA. We present data from Sacramento, Stockton, and Richmond, California that suggests firearm homicides during the pandemic did not increase in all communities or disproportionately burden the African American community. More specifically, we found that in these cities, there was a 5-52% decrease in gun homicides during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period for neighborhoods with a gun violence prevention program operating there. We also found a 24-83% reduction in gun homicides in census tracts with > 20% Black populations in Sacramento and Stockton during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period. In two cities, there was a 15-42% decrease in the number of African American men under 35 years old that were victims of a gun homicide in 2021 compared to 2018. We also found that the gun violence program operating in these cities called Advance Peace interrupted 202 street-level conflicts where guns were present across the three cities in 2020/2021 compared to 178 of the same conflicts in 2018/2019. These interruptions likely saved hundreds of lives and we estimate contributed to between US $65 and $494 million in savings. Advance Peace is a program that engages those at the center of gun violence, frequently young, Black men under 35 years old, and offers them the Peacemaker Fellowship, an intensive, 18-month program of 24/7 mentorship, social services, and life opportunities. The program is delivered by community resident "credible messengers," who conduct the mentorship and interrupt conflicts in the streets. While these findings are descriptive and preliminary, we know of no other program that was in operation before and during the pandemic in each of these cities that engaged the hard-to-reach but highly influential population at the center of gun violence.

Using synthetic control methodology to estimate effects of a Cure Violence intervention in Baltimore, Maryland.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term impact of Safe Streets Baltimore, which is based on the Cure Violence outreach and violence interruption model, on firearm violence. METHODS: We used synthetic control methods to estimate programme effects on homicides and incidents of non-fatal penetrating firearm injury (non-fatal shootings) in neighbourhoods that had Safe Streets' sites and model-generated counterfactuals. Synthetic control analyses were conducted for each firearm violence outcome in each of the seven areas where Safe Streets was implemented. The study also investigated variation in programme impact over time by generating effect estimates of varying durations for the longest-running programme sites. RESULTS: Synthetic control models reduced prediction error relative to regression analyses. Estimates of Safe Streets' effects on firearm violence varied across intervention sites: some positive, some negative and no effect. Beneficial programme effects on firearm violence reported in prior research were found to have attenuated over time. CONCLUSIONS: For highly targeted interventions, synthetic control methods may provide more valid estimates of programme impact than panel regression with data from all city neighbourhoods. This research offers new understanding about the effectiveness of the Cure Violence intervention over extended periods of time in seven neighbourhoods. Combined with existing Cure Violence evaluation literature, it also raises questions about contextual and implementation factors that might influence programme outcomes.

California's Mental Health Services Act and Mortality Due to Suicide, Homicide, and Acute Effects of Alcohol: A Synthetic Control Application.

California's Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) substantially expanded funding of county mental health services through a state tax, and led to broad prevention efforts and intensive services for individuals experiencing serious mental disorders. We estimated the associations between MHSA and mortality due to suicide, homicide, and acute effects of alcohol. Using annual cause-specific mortality data for each US state and the District of Columbia from 1976-2015, we used a generalization of the quasi-experimental synthetic control method to predict California's mortality rate for each outcome in the absence of MHSA using a weighted combination of comparison states. We calculated the association between MHSA and each outcome as the absolute difference and percentage difference between California's observed and predicted average annual rates over the postintervention years (2007-2015). MHSA was associated with modest decreases in average annual rates of homicide (-0.81/100,000 persons, corresponding to a 13% reduction) and mortality from acute alcohol effects (-0.35/100,000 persons, corresponding to a 12% reduction). Placebo test inference suggested that the associations were unlikely to be due to chance. MHSA was not associated with suicide. Protective associations with mortality due to homicide and acute alcohol effects provide evidence for modest health benefits of MHSA at the population level.

Baltimore Ceasefire 365: Estimated Impact of a Recurring Community-Led Ceasefire on Gun Violence.

Objectives. To estimate the impact of recurring community-led, weekend-long ceasefires on gun violence in the City of Baltimore, Maryland.Methods. The City of Baltimore releases detailed data on all crimes occurring in the city. We compiled daily counts of fatal and nonfatal shootings occurring between January 2012 and July 2019 and fit a Bayesian model to estimate the impact of the ceasefires on gun violence during designated weekends after accounting for yearly seasonality, day of the week, calendar days, and overall time trends. We also looked at the 3-day periods following each 3-day ceasefire weekend to test for a possible postponement effect.Results. There was an estimated 52% (95% credible interval [CI] = 33%, 67%) reduction in gun violence during ceasefire days and no evidence of a postponement effect on either the next 3 days or the next 3-day weekend following each ceasefire weekend (incidence rate ratio = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.72, 1.06).Conclusions. The Baltimore Ceasefire weekends may be an effective short-term intervention for reducing gun violence. Future research should aim to understand the key components and transferability of the intervention.

Infant Homicides Within the Context of Safe Haven Laws - United States, 2008-2017.

Homicide is the 13th leading cause of death among infants (i.e., children aged <1 year) in the United States (1). Infant homicides occurring within the first 24 hours of life (i.e., neonaticide) are primarily perpetrated by the mother, who might be of young age, unmarried, have lower educational attainment, and is most likely associated with concealment of an unintended pregnancy and nonhospital birthing (2). After the first day of life, infant homicides might be associated with other factors (e.g., child abuse and neglect or caregiver frustration) (2). A 2002 study of the age variation in homicide risk in U.S. infants during 1989-1998 found that the overall infant homicide rate was 8.3 per 100,000 person-years, and on the first day of life was 222.2 per 100,000 person-years, a homicide rate at least 10 times greater than that for any other time of life (3). Because of this period of heightened risk, by 2008 all 50 states* and Puerto Rico had enacted Safe Haven Laws. These laws allow a parent† to legally surrender an infant who might otherwise be abandoned or endangered (4). CDC analyzed infant homicides in the United States during 2008-2017 to determine whether rates changed after nationwide implementation of Safe Haven Laws, and to examine the association between infant homicide rates and state-specific Safe Haven age limits. During 2008-2017, the overall infant homicide rate was 7.2 per 100,000 person-years, and on the first day of life was 74.0 per 100,000 person-years, representing a 66.7% decrease from 1989-1998. However, the homicide rate on first day of life was still 5.4 times higher than that for any other time in life. No obvious association was found between infant homicide rates and Safe Haven age limits. States are encouraged to evaluate the effectiveness of their Safe Haven Laws and other prevention strategies to ensure they are achieving the intended benefits of preventing infant homicides. Programs and policies that strengthen economic supports, provide affordable childcare, and enhance and improve skills for young parents might contribute to the prevention of infant homicides.

Handgun waiting periods reduce gun deaths.

Handgun waiting periods are laws that impose a delay between the initiation of a purchase and final acquisition of a firearm. We show that waiting periods, which create a "cooling off" period among buyers, significantly reduce the incidence of gun violence. We estimate the impact of waiting periods on gun deaths, exploiting all changes to state-level policies in the Unites States since 1970. We find that waiting periods reduce gun homicides by roughly 17%. We provide further support for the causal impact of waiting periods on homicides by exploiting a natural experiment resulting from a federal law in 1994 that imposed a temporary waiting period on a subset of states.

The lagged effect of state gun laws on the reduction of state-level firearm homicide mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2017.

OBJECTIVES: Gun violence is a pressing concern in the United States, where many laws targeting gun violence vary across states and localities. Studies have investigated the association between gun laws and gun violence, but not many focus on the role of time, which is critical for implementation. This study aims to determine the lagged association of gun laws with firearm homicide mortality to better understand the impacts of state gun laws over time. STUDY DESIGN: The design of this study is a longitudinal study. METHODS: This study applied the distributed lag non-linear model to assess the lagged association between firearm homicide mortality and the number of gun law provisions at the state level from 1999 to 2017. State gun law provisions were analyzed in aggregate and also across five groups of regulations. All estimates were transformed into relative risks (RRs). RESULTS: Regarding all state gun laws, regardless of how many gun law provisions were on the books in any year, a significantly reduced RR of firearm homicide mortality was not observed until 7 years later. Among the five regulation groups, a significant RR less than 1 was more likely to happen in longer lags ≥5. The lowest significant RR = 0.24 (95% confidence interval = 0.15, 0.39) was observed in the gun types, components, and trafficking group at lag 8. All regulation groups had an overall impact to reduce significantly the RR of firearm homicide mortality with more gun law provisions, except for the dealer regulation group. CONCLUSIONS: State gun law provisions appear to impact firearm homicide mortality differently over time. This emphasizes the centrality of enforcement. Firearm policy researchers need to consider how specific gun laws are implemented over time to help inform law-based interventions.