Forecasting the Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the economic burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke over the coming decades may inform policy, health system, and community-level interventions for prevention and treatment. METHODS: We used nationally representative health, economic, and demographic data to project health care costs attributable to key cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia) and conditions (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation) through 2050. The human capital approach was used to estimate productivity losses from morbidity and premature mortality due to cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS: One in 3 US adults received care for a cardiovascular risk factor or condition in 2020. Annual inflation-adjusted (2022 US dollars) health care costs of cardiovascular risk factors are projected to triple between 2020 and 2050, from $400 billion to $1344 billion. For cardiovascular conditions, annual health care costs are projected to almost quadruple, from $393 billion to $1490 billion, and productivity losses are projected to increase by 54%, from $234 billion to $361 billion. Stroke is projected to account for the largest absolute increase in costs. Large relative increases among the Asian American population (497%) and Hispanic American population (489%) reflect the projected increases in the size of these populations. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of cardiovascular risk factors and overt cardiovascular disease in the United States is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades. Development and deployment of cost-effective programs and policies to promote cardiovascular health are urgently needed to rein in costs and to equitably enhance population health.

Endovascular Thrombectomy Alone for Large Vessel Occlusion: A Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Meta-Analyses.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase before endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion remains debated. In this study, we analyzed the cost-effectiveness of EVT alone versus intravenous alteplase before EVT in patients directly admitted to EVT-capable stroke centers from the Dutch health care payer perspective. METHODS: A decision analysis was performed using a Markov model with 15-year simulated follow-up to estimate total costs, quality-adjusted life years, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of intravenous alteplase before EVT compared with EVT alone. A hypothetical cohort of 10 000 patients with large vessel occlusion aged 70 years was run in Monte Carlo simulation. Functional outcome of each treatment was derived from pooled results of 6 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Uncertainty was assessed by probabilistic analyses, scenario analyses, and 1-way sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Using functional outcomes obtained from 6 RCTs (intention-to-treat population), intravenous alteplase before EVT resulted in 0.05 quality-adjusted life years gained at an additional $2817 compared with EVT alone, resulting in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $62 287. Probabilistic analyses showed that intravenous alteplase before EVT had a probability of 45% and 54%, respectively, of being cost-effective at the $52 500 and $84 000 thresholds. Restricting functional outcomes from our post hoc modified as-treated analysis of 6 RCTs (scenario 1), European RCTs (scenario 2), or a Dutch RCT (scenario 3), intravenous alteplase before EVT was cost-effective in 64%, 81%, and 50% of simulations at the $52 500 threshold, and 79%, 91%, and 67% of simulations at the $84 000 threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous alteplase before EVT was not cost-effective in patients with large vessel occlusion in the Netherlands at the $52 500 threshold but possibly cost-effective at the $84 000 threshold. Variable functional outcomes at 3 months based on different trial populations affected the cost-effectiveness of intravenous alteplase before EVT.

Incidence of stroke, subsequent clinical outcomes and health care resource utilization in people with type 2 diabetes: a real-world database study in France: "INSIST" study.

BACKGROUND: People with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are at elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) including stroke, yet existing real-world evidence (RWE) on the clinical and economic burden of stroke in this population is limited. The aim of this cohort study was to evaluate the clinical and economic burden of stroke among people with T2D in France. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective RWE study using data from the nationally representative subset of the French Système National des Données de Santé (SNDS) database. We assessed the incidence of stroke requiring hospitalization between 2012 and 2018 among T2D patients. Subsequent clinical outcomes including CVD, stroke recurrence, and mortality were estimated overall and according to stroke subtype (ischemic versus hemorrhagic). We also examined the treatment patterns for glucose-lowering agents and CVD agents, health care resource utilization and medical costs. RESULTS: Among 45,331 people with T2D without baseline history of stroke, 2090 (4.6%) had an incident stroke requiring hospitalization. The incidence of ischemic stroke per 1000 person-years was 4.9-times higher than hemorrhagic stroke (6.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.47-7.15] versus 1.38 [1.24-1.54]). During a median follow-up of 2.4 years (interquartile range 0.6; 4.4) from date of index stroke, the rate of CVD, stroke recurrence and mortality per 1000 person-years was higher among hemorrhagic stroke patients than ischemic stroke patients (CVD 130.9 [107.7-159.0] versus 126.4 [117.2-136.4]; stroke recurrence: 86.7 [66.4-113.4] versus 66.5 [59.2-74.6]; mortality 291.5 [259.1-327.9] versus 144.1 [134.3-154.6]). These differences were not statistically significant, except for mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.95 [95% CI 1.66-2.92]). The proportion of patients prescribed glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists increased from 4.2% at baseline to 6.6% during follow-up. The proportion of patients prescribed antihypertensives and statins only increased slightly following incident stroke (antihypertensives: 70.9% pre-stroke versus 76.7% post-stroke; statins: 24.1% pre-stroke versus 30.0% post-stroke). Overall, 68.8% of patients had a subsequent hospitalization. Median total medical costs were €12,199 (6846; 22,378). CONCLUSIONS: The high burden of stroke among people with T2D, along with the low proportion of patients receiving recommended treatments as per clinical guidelines, necessitates a strengthened and multidisciplinary approach to the CVD prevention and management in people with T2D.

Costs and health effects of CT perfusion-based selection for endovascular thrombectomy within 6 hours of stroke onset: a model-based health economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Although CT perfusion (CTP) is often incorporated in acute stroke workflows, it remains largely unclear what the associated costs and health implications are in the long run of CTP-based patient selection for endovascular treatment (EVT) in patients presenting within 6 hours after symptom onset with a large vessel occlusion. METHODS: Patients with a large vessel occlusion were included from a Dutch nationwide cohort (n=703) if CTP imaging was performed before EVT within 6 hours after stroke onset. Simulated cost and health effects during 5 and 10 years follow-up were compared between CTP based patient selection for EVT and providing EVT to all patients. Outcome measures were the net monetary benefit at a willingness-to-pay of €80 000 per quality-adjusted life year, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio), difference in costs from a healthcare payer perspective (ΔCosts) and quality-adjusted life years (ΔQALY) per 1000 patients for 1000 model iterations as outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with treating all patients, CTP-based selection for EVT at the optimised ischaemic core volume (ICV≥110 mL) or core-penumbra mismatch ratio (MMR≤1.4) thresholds resulted in losses of health (median ΔQALYs for ICV≥110 mL: -3.3 (IQR: -5.9 to -1.1), for MMR≤1.4: 0.0 (IQR: -1.3 to 0.0)) with median ΔCosts for ICV≥110 mL of -€348 966 (IQR: -€712 406 to -€51 158) and for MMR≤1.4 of €266 513 (IQR: €229 403 to €380 110)) per 1000 patients. Sensitivity analyses did not yield any scenarios for CTP-based selection of patients for EVT that were cost-effective for improving health, including patients aged ≥80 years CONCLUSION: In EVT-eligible patients presenting within 6 hours after symptom onset, excluding patients based on CTP parameters was not cost-effective and could potentially harm patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Government Policy to Incentivise Chronic Disease Management following Stroke: A Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of government policies that support primary care physicians to provide comprehensive chronic disease management (CDM). This paper aimed to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of CDM policies over a lifetime for long-time survivors of stroke. METHODS: A Markov model, using three health states (stable, hospitalised, dead), was developed to simulate the costs and benefits of CDM policies over 30 years (with 1-year cycles). Transition probabilities and costs from a health system perspective were obtained from the linkage of data between the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (cohort n = 12,368, 42% female, median age 70 years, 45% had CDM claims) and government-held hospital, Medicare, and pharmaceutical claims datasets. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from a comparable cohort (n = 512, 34% female, median age 69.6 years, 52% had CDM claims) linked with Medicare claims and death data. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs in Australian dollars (AUD, 2016) and QALYs beyond 12 months. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to understand uncertainty. RESULTS: Per-person average total lifetime costs were AUD 142,939 and 8.97 QALYs for those with a claim, and AUD 103,889 and 8.98 QALYs for those without a claim. This indicates that these CDM policies were costlier without improving QALYs. The probability of cost-effectiveness of CDM policies was 26.1%, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY. CONCLUSION: CDM policies, designed to encourage comprehensive care, are unlikely to be cost-effective for stroke compared to care without CDM. Further research to understand how to deliver such care cost-effectively is needed.

Cost-Effectiveness of an Individualised Management Program after Stroke: A Trial-Based Economic Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of comprehensive post-stroke programs is limited. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of an individualised management program (IMP) for stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). METHODS: A cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial with a 24-month follow-up, from both societal and health system perspectives, was conducted. Adults with stroke/TIA discharged from hospitals were randomised by primary care practice to receive either usual care (UC) or an IMP in addition to UC (intervention). An IMP included stroke-specific nurse-led education and a specialist review of care plans at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months, and telephone reviews by nurses at 6 months and 18 months. Costs were expressed in 2021 Australian dollars (AUD). Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) beyond 12 months were discounted by 5%. The probability of cost-effectiveness of the intervention was determined by quantifying 10,000 bootstrapped iterations of incremental costs and QALYs below the threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY. RESULTS: Among the 502 participants (65% male, median age 69 years), 251 (50%) were in the intervention group. From a health system perspective, the incremental cost per QALY gained was AUD 53,175 in the intervention compared to the UC group, and the intervention was cost-effective in 46.7% of iterations. From a societal perspective, the intervention was dominant in 52.7% of iterations, with mean per-person costs of AUD 49,045 and 1.352 QALYs compared to mean per-person costs of AUD 51,394 and 1.324 QALYs in the UC group. The probability of the cost-effectiveness of the intervention, from a societal perspective, was 60.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Care for people with stroke/TIA using an IMP was cost-effective from a societal perspective over 24 months. Economic evaluations of prevention programs need sufficient time horizons and consideration of costs beyond direct healthcare utilisation to demonstrate their value to society.

Measurement of Cost of Boarding in the Emergency Department Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Boarding admitted patients in emergency departments (EDs) is a national crisis that is worsening despite potential financial disadvantages. The objective of this study was to assess costs associated with boarding. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, observational investigation of patients admitted through an ED for management of acute stroke at a large, urban, academic, comprehensive stroke center hospital. We employed time-driven activity-based costing methodology to estimate cost for patient care activities during admission and aggregated results to estimate the total cost of boarding versus inpatient care. Primary outcomes were total daily costs per patient for medical-surgical (med/surg) boarding, med/surg inpatient care, ICU boarding, and ICU inpatient care. RESULTS: The total daily cost per patient with acute stroke was US$1856, for med/surg boarding versus US$993 for med/surg inpatient care and US$2267, for ICU boarding versus US$2165, for ICU inpatient care. These differences were even greater when accounting for costs associated with traveler nurses. ED nurses spent 293 min/d (mean) caring for each med/surg boarder; inpatient nurses spent 313 min/d for each med/surg inpatient. ED nurses spent 419 min/d caring for each ICU boarder; inpatient nurses spent 787 min/d for each ICU inpatient. Neurology attendings and residents spent 25 and 52 min/d caring for each med/surg boarder versus 62 minutes and 90 minutes for each med/surg inpatient, respectively. CONCLUSION: Using advanced cost-accounting methods, our investigation provides novel evidence that boarding of admitted patients is financially costly, adding greater urgency for elimination of this practice.

Burden in caregivers of patients with schizophrenia, depression, dementia, and stroke in Japan: comparative analysis of quality of life, work productivity, and qualitative caregiving burden.

BACKGROUND: The main objective of this study was to examine the burden of schizophrenia, depression, Alzheimer's disease/dementia, and stroke on caregivers and non-caregivers in Japan. This study also aimed to provide a comparative landscape on the burden of caregiving for each disorder. METHODS: The Japan National Health and Wellness Survey database, 2016 and 2018 was used in this study. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL), work productivity, and health care utilization were assessed using a self-administered, Internet-based questionnaire. The burden of caregiving experienced by each group of caregivers was compared with background-matched non-caregivers (controls) as well as with caregivers of patients with each disorder. RESULTS: Caregivers of patients with schizophrenia, depression, Alzheimer's disease/dementia, or stroke had lower HRQoL, higher healthcare costs and work productivity impairment than non-caregivers. Furthermore, caregivers of patients with psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia and depression had lower HRQoL and work productivity than caregivers of patients with Alzheimer's disease/dementia and stroke. In addition, according to the Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA), caregivers of patients with schizophrenia and depression were more inclined to perceive a loss in physical strength and financial burden to the same extent as their self-esteem. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated a substantial caregiving burden among caregivers of patients with psychiatric and neurological diseases in Japan. The caregiver burden of psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia and depression) was greater than that of neurological disorders (Alzheimer's disease/dementia and stroke), suggesting a need to provide support to caregivers of patients with psychiatric disorders to be better able to care for their patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: None.

The impact of stroke on employment income: A cohort study using hospital and income tax data in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: To document the impact of stroke on employment income among people employed at the time of stroke. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: People hospitalized for stroke in Ontario, Canada (2010-2014) and people without stroke matched on demographic characteristics. MAIN MEASURES: Robust Poisson regression to estimate the effects of stroke on the probability of reporting employment income on tax returns over 3 years. Quantile regression difference-in-differences to estimate the changes in annual employment income attributable to stroke. RESULTS: Stroke survivors were increasingly less likely to report any employment income poststroke, incidence rate ratios (IRR) 0.87 at 1 year (95% confidence intervals [CI]; 0.85-0.88), 0.82 at 2 years (95% CI; 0.81-0.84) and 0.81 at 3 years (95% CI; 0.79-0.82). IRR for reporting at least 50% of prestroke income levels were 0.76 at 1 year (95% CI; 0.75-0.78), 0.75 at 2 years (95% CI; 0.73-0.77) and 0.73 at 3 years (95% CI; 0.71-0.75). IRR for reporting at least 90% of prestroke income levels were 0.72 at 1 year (95% CI; 0.70-0.74), 0.66 at 2 years (95% CI; 0.64-0.68) and again 0.66 at 3 years (95% CI; 0.64-0.68). Relative changes in annual employment income attributable to stroke varied from a decrease of 13.8% (95% CI; 8.7-18.9) at the 75th income percentile to a decrease of 43.1% (95% CI; 18.7-67.6) at the 25th income percentile. CONCLUSIONS: It is important for healthcare and service providers to recognize the impact of stroke on return to prestroke levels of employment income. Low-income stroke survivors experience a more drastic loss in employment income and may need additional social support.

Extending mechanical thrombectomy service provision to 24/7: a break-even analysis.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive stroke centres across England have developed investment proposals, showing the estimated increases in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) treatment volume that would justify extending the standard hours to a 24/7 service provision. These investment proposals have been developed taking a financial accounting perspective, that is by considering the financial revenues from tariff income. However, given the pressure put on local health authorities to provide value for money services, an affordability question emerges. That is, at what additional MT treatment volume the additional treatment costs are offset by the additional health economic benefits, that is quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal cost savings, generated by administering MT compared to standard care. METHODS: A break-even analysis was conducted to identify the additional MT treatment volume required. The incremental hospital-related costs associated with the 24/7 MT extension were estimated using information and parameters from four relevant business cases. The additional societal cost savings and health benefits were estimated by adapting a previously developed Markov chain-based model. RESULTS: The additional hospital-related annual costs for extending MT to a 24/7 service were estimated at a mean of £3,756,818 (range £1,847,387 to £5,092,788). On average, 750 (range 246 to 1,571) additional eligible stroke patients are required to be treated with MT yearly for the proposed 24/7 service extension to be affordable from a health economic perspective. Overall, the additional facility and equipment costs associated with the 24/7 extension would affect this estimate by 20%. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the ongoing debate regarding the optimal levels of MT treatment required for a 24/7 extension and respective changes in hospital organisational activities. They also highlight a need for a regional-level coordination between local authorities and hospital administrations to ensure equity provision in that stroke patients can benefit from MT and that the optimal MT treatment volume is reached. Future studies should contemplate reproducing the presented analysis for different health service provision settings and decision making contexts.

Epidemiology and comprehensive economic impact of atrial fibrillation and associated stroke in Slovakia.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. It is also a major risk factor for ischemic stroke. The main objective of our study was to identify direct and indirect costs of AF and AF-related stroke in Slovakia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based study of AF and stroke related costs both from the third-party healthcare payers and societal perspective. The prevalence and incidence of AF and stroke were determined from central government run healthcare database. Further we estimated both indirect and direct costs of AF and stroke. All costs and healthcare resources were assessed from 2015 through 2019 and were expressed in the respective year. RESULTS: Over the 5-year study period, the prevalence of AF increased by 26% to a total of 149,198 AF cases in 2019, with an estimated total annual economic burden of €66,242,359. Direct medical costs accounted for 94% of the total cost of AF. The total cost of treating patients with stroke in 2019 was estimated at €89,505,669. As a result, the medical costs of stroke that develops as a complication of AF have been estimated to be €25,734,080 in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows a substantial economic burden of AF and AF-related stroke in Slovakia. In view of the above, both screening for asymptomatic AF in high-risk populations and effective early management of AF with a focused on thromboprophylaxis rhythm control should be implemented.

Unveiling the evolving landscape of stroke care costs: A time-driven analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is a common cause of mortality in the United States. However, the economic burden of stroke on the healthcare system is not well known. In this study, we aim to calculate the annual cumulative and per-patient cost of stroke. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS). We calculate annual trends in cost for stroke patients from 2006 to 2019. A multivariate linear regression with patient characteristics (e.g. age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index) as covariates was used to identify factors for higher costs. RESULTS: In this study time-period, 2,998,237 stroke patients presented to the ED and 2,481,171 (83 %) were admitted. From 2006 to 2019, the cumulative ED cost increased by a factor of 7.0 from 0.49 ± 0.03 to 3.91 ± 0.16 billion dollars (p < 0.001). The cumulative inpatient (IP) cost increased by a factor of 2.7 from 14.42 ± 0.78 to 37.06 ± 2.26 billion dollars (p < 0.001. Per-patient ED charges increased by a factor of 3.0 from 1950 ± 64 to 7818 ± 260 dollars (p < 0.001). Per-patient IP charges increased by 89 % from 40.22 +/- 1.12 to 76.06 ± 3.18 thousand dollars (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Strokes place an increasing financial burden on the US healthcare system. Certain patient demographics including age, male gender, more comorbidities, and insurance type were significantly associated with increased cost of care.

Availability and barriers to access post-stroke rehabilitation in Latin America.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the availability and barriers to access post-stroke rehabilitation services in Latin America. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a multi-national survey in Latin American countries. The survey consisted of three sections: (1) the national state of post-stroke rehabilitation; (2) the local state of post-stroke rehabilitation; and (3) the coverage and financing of post-stroke services. Stroke leaders from the surveyed countries were involved in developing and disseminating the survey. RESULTS: 261 responses were collected from 17 countries. The mean age of respondents was 42.4 ± 10.1 years, and 139 (54.5 %) of the respondents were male. National clinical guidelines for post-stroke rehabilitation were reported by 67 (25.7 %) of the respondents. However, there were discrepancies between respondents within the same country. Stroke units, physiotherapy, occupational therapy, speech therapy, and neuropsychological therapy services were less common in public than private settings. The main barriers for inpatient and outpatient services included limited rehabilitation facilities, coverage, and rehabilitation personnel. The main source of financing for the inpatient and outpatient services was the national health insurance, followed by out-of-pocket payments. Private and out-of-pocket costs were more frequently reported in outpatient services. CONCLUSIONS: Post-stroke rehabilitation services in Latin American countries are restricted due to a lack of coverage by the public health system and private insurers, human resources, and financial aid. Public settings offer fewer post-stroke rehabilitation services compared to private settings. Developing consensus guidelines, increasing coverage, and using innovative approaches to deliver post-stroke rehabilitation is paramount to increase access without posing a financial burden.

Determining the cost of acute stroke care for a single stay at a tertiary care centre in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic burden of acute stroke, and to determine the average cost of acute stroke care for a single hospital stay in a public tertiary care hospital. METHODS: The cross-sectional study was conducted at the Medical Teaching Institute, Bacha Khan Medical Complex, Swabi, Pakistan, from May 16 to September 19, 2022, and comprised patients of either gender who were hospitalised with an acute stroke for the first time. All costs incurred during the care of the patients were measured using the micro-costing methodology, and the association of the cost with other variables was evaluated. Data was analysed using SPSS 24. RESULTS: Of the 34 patients, 24(70.6%) were males and 10(29.4%) were females. The overall mean age was 66+/-13.00 years. The mean length of hospital stay was 4+/-3.00 days. The mean total cost was 18,156+/-9,068 Pakistani rupees, which was the equivalent of 76.89+/-38.4 United States dollars. The cost of the first day of admission was the highest, declining per day as the stay progressed, and imaging/laboratory investigations formed the highest component of the overall cost (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The cost of acute stroke care was found to be high even in a public hospital. The length of hospital stay was the most important determinant of the overall cost.

Effects of the Million Hearts Model on Myocardial Infarctions, Strokes, and Medicare Spending: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The Million Hearts Model paid health care organizations to assess and reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Model effects on long-term outcomes are unknown. Objective: To estimate model effects on first-time myocardial infarctions (MIs) and strokes and Medicare spending over a period up to 5 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pragmatic cluster-randomized trial ran from 2017 to 2021, with organizations assigned to a model intervention group or standard care control group. Randomized organizations included 516 US-based primary care and specialty practices, health centers, and hospital-based outpatient clinics participating voluntarily. Of these organizations, 342 entered patients into the study population, which included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 40 to 79 years with no previous MI or stroke and with high or medium CVD risk (a 10-year predicted probability of MI or stroke [ie, CVD risk score] ≥15%) in 2017-2018. Intervention: Organizations agreed to perform guideline-concordant care, including routine CVD risk assessment and cardiovascular care management for high-risk patients. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services paid organizations to calculate CVD risk scores for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. CMS further rewarded organizations for reducing risk among high-risk beneficiaries (CVD risk score ≥30%). Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included first-time CVD events (MIs, strokes, and transient ischemic attacks) identified in Medicare claims, combined first-time CVD events from claims and CVD deaths (coronary heart disease or cerebrovascular disease deaths) identified using the National Death Index, and Medicare Parts A and B spending for CVD events and overall. Outcomes were measured through 2021. Results: High- and medium-risk model intervention beneficiaries (n = 130 578) and standard care control beneficiaries (n = 88 286) were similar in age (median age, 72-73 y), sex (58%-59% men), race (7%-8% Black), and baseline CVD risk score (median, 24%). The probability of a first-time CVD event within 5 years was 0.3 percentage points lower for intervention beneficiaries than control beneficiaries (3.3% relative effect; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 [90% CI, 0.93-1.00]; P = .09). The 5-year probability of combined first-time CVD events and CVD deaths was 0.4 percentage points lower in the intervention group (4.2% relative effect; HR, 0.96 [90% CI, 0.93-0.99]; P = .02). Medicare spending for CVD events was similar between the groups (effect estimate, -$1.83 per beneficiary per month [90% CI, -$3.97 to -$0.30]; P = .16), as was overall Medicare spending including model payments (effect estimate, $2.11 per beneficiary per month [90% CI, -$16.66 to $20.89]; P = .85). Conclusions and Relevance: The Million Hearts Model, which encouraged and paid for CVD risk assessment and reduction, reduced first-time MIs and strokes. Results support guidelines to use risk scores for CVD primary prevention. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04047147.

Number of Social Determinants of Health and Fatal and Nonfatal Incident Coronary Heart Disease in the REGARDS Study.

BACKGROUND: Social determinants of health (SDH) are individually associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Indices reflecting social deprivation have been developed for population management, but are difficult to operationalize during clinical care. We examined whether a simple count of SDH is associated with fatal incident CHD and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: We used data from the prospective longitudinal REGARDS cohort study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke), a national population-based sample of community-dwelling Black and White adults age ≥45 years recruited from 2003 to 2007. Seven SDH from the 5 Healthy People 2020 domains included social context (Black race, social isolation); education (educational attainment); economic stability (annual household income); neighborhood (living in a zip code with high poverty); and health care (lacking health insurance, living in 1 of the 9 US states with the least public health infrastructure). Outcomes were expert adjudicated fatal incident CHD and nonfatal MI. RESULTS: Of 22 152 participants free of CHD at baseline, 58.8% were women and 42.0% were Black; 20.6% had no SDH, 30.6% had 1, 23.0% had 2, and 25.8% had ≥3. There were 463 fatal incident CHD events and 932 nonfatal MIs over a median of 10.7 years (interquartile range, 6.6 to 12.7). Fewer SDHs were associated with nonfatal MI than with fatal incident CHD. The age-adjusted incidence per 1000 person-years increased with the number of SDH for both fatal incident CHD (0 SDH, 1.30; 1 SDH, 1.44; 2 SDH, 2.05; ≥3 SDH, 2.86) and nonfatal MI (0 SDH, 3.91; 1 SDH, 4.33; ≥2 SDH, 5.44). Compared with those without SDH, crude and fully adjusted hazard ratios for fatal incident CHD among those with ≥3 SDH were 3.00 (95% CI, 2.17 to 4.15) and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.18 to 2.37), respectively; hazard ratios for nonfatal MI among those with ≥2 SDH were 1.57 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.90) and 1.14 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.41), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A greater burden of SDH was associated with a graded increase in risk of incident CHD, with greater magnitude and independent associations for fatal incident CHD. Counting the number of SDHs may be a promising approach that could be incorporated into clinical care to identify individuals at high risk of CHD.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs). METHODS: The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Long-Term Impact of Urgent Secondary Prevention After Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke: Ten-Year Follow-Up of the EXPRESS Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Urgent assessment aimed at reducing stroke risk after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke is cost-effective over the short-term. However, it is unclear if the short-term impact is lost on long-term follow-up, with recurrent events being delayed rather than prevented. By 10-year follow-up of the EXPRESS study (Early Use of Existing Preventive Strategies for Stroke), previously showing urgent assessment reduced 90-day stroke risk by 80%, we determined whether that early benefit was still evident long-term for stroke risk, disability, and costs. METHODS: EXPRESS was a prospective population-based before (phase 1: April 2002-September 2004; n=310) versus after (phase 2: October 2004-March 2007; n=281) study of the effect of early assessment and treatment of transient ischemic attack/minor stroke on early recurrent stroke risk, with an external control. This report assesses the effect on 10-year recurrent stroke risk, functional outcomes, quality-of-life, and costs. RESULTS: A reduction in stroke risk in phase 2 was still evident at 10 years (55/23.3% versus 82/31.6%; hazard ratio=0.68 [95% CI, 0.48-0.95]; P=0.024), as was the impact on risk of disabling or fatal stroke (17/7.7% versus 32/13.1%; hazard ratio=0.54 [0.30-0.97]; P=0.036). These effects were due to maintenance of the early reduction in stroke risk, with neither additional benefit nor rebound catch-up after 90 days (post-90 days hazard ratio=0.88 [0.65-1.44], P=0.88; and hazard ratio=0.83 [0.42-1.65], P=0.59, respectively). Disability-free life expectancy was 0.59 (0.03-1.15; P=0.043) years higher in patients in phase 2, as was quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.49 [0.03-0.95]; P=0.036). Overall, 10-year costs were nonsignificantly higher in patients attending the phase 2 clinic ($1022 [-3865-5907]; P=0.66). The additional cost per quality-adjusted life year gained in phase 2 versus phase 1 was $2103, well below current cost-effectiveness thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Urgent assessment and treatment of patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke resulted in a long-term reduction in recurrent strokes and improved outcomes, with little atrophy of the early benefit over time, representing good value for money even with a 10-year time horizon. Our results suggest that other effective acute treatments in transient ischemic attack/minor stroke in the short-term will also have the potential to have long-term benefit.

One-Year Costs Associated With the Veterans Affairs National TeleStroke Program.

OBJECTIVES: Access to timely care is important for patients with stroke, where rapid diagnosis and treatment affect functional status, disability, and mortality. Telestroke programs connect stroke specialists with emergency department staff at facilities without on-site stroke expertise. The objective of this study was to examine healthcare costs for patients with stroke who sought care before and after implementation of the US Department of Veterans Affairs National TeleStroke Program (NTSP). METHODS: We identified 471 patients who had a stroke and sought care at a telestroke site and compared them to 529 patients with stroke who received stroke care at the same sites before telestroke implementation. We examined patient costs for 12 months before and after stroke, using a linear model with a patient-level fixed effect. RESULTS: NTSP was associated with significantly higher rates of patients receiving guideline concordant care. Compared with control patients, those treated by NTSP were 14.3 percentage points more likely to receive tissue plasminogen activator and 4.3 percentage points more likely to receive a thrombectomy (all P < .0001). NTSP was associated with $4821 increased costs for patients with stroke in the first 30 days after the program (2019 dollars). There were no observed savings over 12 months, and the added costs of care were attributable to higher rates of guideline concordant care. CONCLUSIONS: Telestroke programs are unlikely to yield short-term savings because optimal stroke care is expensive. Healthcare organizations should expect increases in healthcare costs for patients treated for stroke in the first year after implementing a telestroke program.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness and Safety of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Who Are Not Candidates for Warfarin in Real-World Setting.

ABSTRACT: Limited literature has established the role of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) for elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who are unsuited for warfarin. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to assess the effectiveness and safety of DOAC use in this vulnerable patient population. This was a retrospective propensity score matching cohort study. Among all patients aged 75+ years who were not candidates for warfarin, we matched those who initiated DOAC between September 2017 and September 2018 with those who did not receive DOAC or warfarin in a 1:1 ratio. Effectiveness outcome was a composite measure of stroke, transient ischemic attack, and pulmonary embolism. Safety outcome was a composite measure of non-trauma-related intracranial hemorrhage and gastrointestinal bleed. Unless patients died or lost membership, follow-up period for the effectiveness outcome was until the end of 2019, whereas the safety outcome was for a period up to 1 year. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze both outcomes. We identified 7818 patients who met the inclusion criteria and started DOAC, which matched to 7818 patients who did not receive anticoagulants. The mean age was 82.3 ± 5.1 years, and 51.5% male. The DOAC group had a lower hazard ratio of 0.37 (confidence interval, 0.24-0.57; P < 0.01) for composite effectiveness outcomes, whereas no difference in the composite safety outcome (hazard ratio, 0.91; confidence interval, 0.65-1.25; P = 0.55) when compared with matched control. In conclusion, DOAC was found to be effective in preventing thromboembolic events in patients aged 75+ years with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who were not eligible for warfarin.