Prediction of incident cardiovascular events using machine learning and CMR radiomics.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of the feasibility of using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) radiomics in the prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke using machine learning techniques. METHODS: We identified participants from the UK Biobank who experienced incident AF, HF, MI, or stroke during the continuous longitudinal follow-up. The CMR indices and the vascular risk factors (VRFs) as well as the CMR images were obtained for each participant. Three-segmented regions of interest (ROIs) were computed: right ventricle cavity, left ventricle (LV) cavity, and LV myocardium in end-systole and end-diastole phases. Radiomics features were extracted from the 3D volumes of the ROIs. Seven integrative models were built for each incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) as an outcome. Each model was built with VRF, CMR indices, and radiomics features and a combination of them. Support vector machine was used for classification. To assess the model performance, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were reported. RESULTS: AF prediction model using the VRF+CMR+Rad model (accuracy: 0.71, AUC 0.76) obtained the best result. However, the AUC was similar to the VRF+Rad model. HF showed the most significant improvement with the inclusion of CMR metrics (VRF+CMR+Rad: 0.79, AUC 0.84). Moreover, adding only the radiomics features to the VRF reached an almost similarly good performance (VRF+Rad: accuracy 0.77, AUC 0.83). Prediction models looking into incident MI and stroke reached slightly smaller improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics features may provide incremental predictive value over VRF and CMR indices in the prediction of incident CVDs. KEY POINTS: • Prediction of incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction using machine learning techniques. • CMR radiomics, vascular risk factors, and standard CMR indices will be considered in the machine learning models. • The experiments show that radiomics features can provide incremental predictive value over VRF and CMR indices in the prediction of incident cardiovascular diseases.

Cardiometabolic risk estimation using exposome data and machine learning.

BACKGROUND: The human exposome encompasses all exposures that individuals encounter throughout their lifetime. It is now widely acknowledged that health outcomes are influenced not only by genetic factors but also by the interactions between these factors and various exposures. Consequently, the exposome has emerged as a significant contributor to the overall risk of developing major diseases, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. Therefore, personalized early risk assessment based on exposome attributes might be a promising tool for identifying high-risk individuals and improving disease prevention. OBJECTIVE: Develop and evaluate a novel and fair machine learning (ML) model for CVD and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction based on a set of readily available exposome factors. We evaluated our model using internal and external validation groups from a multi-center cohort. To be considered fair, the model was required to demonstrate consistent performance across different sub-groups of the cohort. METHODS: From the UK Biobank, we identified 5,348 and 1,534 participants who within 13 years from the baseline visit were diagnosed with CVD and T2D, respectively. An equal number of participants who did not develop these pathologies were randomly selected as the control group. 109 readily available exposure variables from six different categories (physical measures, environmental, lifestyle, mental health events, sociodemographics, and early-life factors) from the participant's baseline visit were considered. We adopted the XGBoost ensemble model to predict individuals at risk of developing the diseases. The model's performance was compared to that of an integrative ML model which is based on a set of biological, clinical, physical, and sociodemographic variables, and, additionally for CVD, to the Framingham risk score. Moreover, we assessed the proposed model for potential bias related to sex, ethnicity, and age. Lastly, we interpreted the model's results using SHAP, a state-of-the-art explainability method. RESULTS: The proposed ML model presents a comparable performance to the integrative ML model despite using solely exposome information, achieving a ROC-AUC of 0.78±0.01 and 0.77±0.01 for CVD and T2D, respectively. Additionally, for CVD risk prediction, the exposome-based model presents an improved performance over the traditional Framingham risk score. No bias in terms of key sensitive variables was identified. CONCLUSIONS: We identified exposome factors that play an important role in identifying patients at risk of CVD and T2D, such as naps during the day, age completed full-time education, past tobacco smoking, frequency of tiredness/unenthusiasm, and current work status. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of exposome-based machine learning as a fair CVD and T2D risk assessment tool.

Characterization of motion patterns by a spatio-temporal saliency descriptor in cardiac cine MRI.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Abnormalities of the heart motion reveal the presence of a disease. However, a quantitative interpretation of the motion is still a challenge due to the complex dynamics of the heart. This work proposes a quantitative characterization of regional cardiac motion patterns in cine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by a novel spatio-temporal saliency descriptor. METHOD: The strategy starts by dividing the cardiac sequence into a progression of scales which are in due turn mapped to a feature space of regional orientation changes, mimicking the multi-resolution decomposition of oriented primitive changes of visual systems. These changes are estimated as the difference between a particular time and the rest of the sequence. This decomposition is then temporarily and regionally integrated for a particular orientation and then for the set of different orientations. A final spatio-temporal 4D saliency map is obtained as the summation of the previously integrated information for the available scales. The saliency dispersion of this map was computed in standard cardiac locations as a measure of the regional motion pattern and was applied to discriminate control and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) subjects during the diastolic phase. RESULTS: Salient motion patterns were estimated from an experimental set, which consisted of 3D sequences acquired by MRI from 108 subjects (33 control, 35 HCM, 20 dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), and 20 myocardial infarction (MINF) from heterogeneous datasets). HCM and control subjects were classified by an SVM that learned the salient motion patterns estimated from the presented strategy, by achieving a 94% AUC. In addition, statistical differences (test t-student, p<0.05) were found among groups of disease in the septal and anterior ventricular segments at both the ED and ES, with salient motion characteristics aligned with existing knowledge on the diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Regional wall motion abnormality in the apical, anterior, basal, and inferior segments was associated with the saliency dispersion in HCM, DCM, and MINF compared to healthy controls during the systolic and diastolic phases. This saliency analysis may be used to detect subtle changes in heart function.

Estimation of biological heart age using cardiovascular magnetic resonance radiomics.

We developed a novel interpretable biological heart age estimation model using cardiovascular magnetic resonance radiomics measures of ventricular shape and myocardial character. We included 29,996 UK Biobank participants without cardiovascular disease. Images were segmented using an automated analysis pipeline. We extracted 254 radiomics features from the left ventricle, right ventricle, and myocardium of each study. We then used Bayesian ridge regression with tenfold cross-validation to develop a heart age estimation model using the radiomics features as the model input and chronological age as the model output. We examined associations of radiomics features with heart age in men and women, observing sex-differential patterns. We subtracted actual age from model estimated heart age to calculate a "heart age delta", which we considered as a measure of heart aging. We performed a phenome-wide association study of 701 exposures with heart age delta. The strongest correlates of heart aging were measures of obesity, adverse serum lipid markers, hypertension, diabetes, heart rate, income, multimorbidity, musculoskeletal health, and respiratory health. This technique provides a new method for phenotypic assessment relating to cardiovascular aging; further studies are required to assess whether it provides incremental risk information over current approaches.

LongITools: Dynamic longitudinal exposome trajectories in cardiovascular and metabolic noncommunicable diseases.

The current epidemics of cardiovascular and metabolic noncommunicable diseases have emerged alongside dramatic modifications in lifestyle and living environments. These correspond to changes in our "modern" postwar societies globally characterized by rural-to-urban migration, modernization of agricultural practices, and transportation, climate change, and aging. Evidence suggests that these changes are related to each other, although the social and biological mechanisms as well as their interactions have yet to be uncovered. LongITools, as one of the 9 projects included in the European Human Exposome Network, will tackle this environmental health equation linking multidimensional environmental exposures to the occurrence of cardiovascular and metabolic noncommunicable diseases.

Left Ventricle Quantification Challenge: A Comprehensive Comparison and Evaluation of Segmentation and Regression for Mid-Ventricular Short-Axis Cardiac MR Data.

Automatic quantification of the left ventricle (LV) from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images plays an important role in making the diagnosis procedure efficient, reliable, and alleviating the laborious reading work for physicians. Considerable efforts have been devoted to LV quantification using different strategies that include segmentation-based (SG) methods and the recent direct regression (DR) methods. Although both SG and DR methods have obtained great success for the task, a systematic platform to benchmark them remains absent because of differences in label information during model learning. In this paper, we conducted an unbiased evaluation and comparison of cardiac LV quantification methods that were submitted to the Left Ventricle Quantification (LVQuan) challenge, which was held in conjunction with the Statistical Atlases and Computational Modeling of the Heart (STACOM) workshop at the MICCAI 2018. The challenge was targeted at the quantification of 1) areas of LV cavity and myocardium, 2) dimensions of the LV cavity, 3) regional wall thicknesses (RWT), and 4) the cardiac phase, from mid-ventricle short-axis CMR images. First, we constructed a public quantification dataset Cardiac-DIG with ground truth labels for both the myocardium mask and these quantification targets across the entire cardiac cycle. Then, the key techniques employed by each submission were described. Next, quantitative validation of these submissions were conducted with the constructed dataset. The evaluation results revealed that both SG and DR methods can offer good LV quantification performance, even though DR methods do not require densely labeled masks for supervision. Among the 12 submissions, the DR method LDAMT offered the best performance, with a mean estimation error of 301 mm 2 for the two areas, 2.15 mm for the cavity dimensions, 2.03 mm for RWTs, and a 9.5% error rate for the cardiac phase classification. Three of the SG methods also delivered comparable performances. Finally, we discussed the advantages and disadvantages of SG and DR methods, as well as the unsolved problems in automatic cardiac quantification for clinical practice applications.

Fusion of 3D real-time echocardiography and cine MRI using a saliency analysis.

PURPOSE: This paper presents a novel 3D multimodal registration strategy to fuse 3D real-time echocardiography images with cardiac cine MRI images. This alignment is performed in a saliency space, which is designed to maximize similarity between the two imaging modalities. This fusion improves the quality of the available information. METHODS: The method performs in two steps: temporal and spatial registrations. A temporal alignment is firstly achieved by nonlinearly matching pairs of correspondences between the two modalities using a dynamic time warping. A temporal registration is then carried out by applying nonrigid transformations in a common saliency space where normalized cross correlation between temporal pairs of salient volumes is maximized. RESULTS: The alignment performance was evaluated with a set of 18 subjects, 3 with cardiomyopathies and 15 healthy, by computing the Dice score and Hausdorff distance with respect to manual delineations of the left ventricle cavity in both modalities. A Dice score and Hausdorff distance of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively, were obtained. In addition, the deformation field was estimated by quantifying its foldings, obtaining a 98% of regularity in the deformation field. CONCLUSIONS: The 3D multimodal registration strategy presented is performed in a saliency space. Unlike state-of-the-art methods, the presented one takes advantage of the temporal information of the heart to construct this common space, ending up with two well-aligned modalities and regular deformation fields. This preliminary study was evaluated on heterogeneous data composed of two different datasets, healthy and pathological cases, showing similar performances in both cases. Future work will focus on testing the presented strategy in a larger dataset with a balanced number of classes.

[A model for mortality analysis in Colombia. 2000-2012]. / Modelo para el análisis de la mortalidad en Colombia 2000-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To propose and evaluate a model for fitting and forecasting the mortality rates in Colombia that allows analyzing the trends by age, sex, region and cause of death. METHODOLOGY: The national death registries were used as primary source of analysis. The data was pre-processed recodifying the cause of death and redistributing the garbage codes. The forecast model was formulated as a linear approximation with a set of variables of interest, in particular the population and gross domestic product (GDP) by region. RESULTS: As study case we took the mortality under 5 years old, it decreased steadily since 2000 at the national level and at most of the regions. The predictive power of the proposed methodology was tested by fitting the model with the data from 2000 to 2011, the forecast for 2012 was compared with the actual rate, and these results show the model is reliable enough for most of the region-cause combinations. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed methodology and model have the potential to become an instrument to guide health spending priorities using some kind of evidence.

OBJETIVO: Proponer y evaluar un modelo para el ajuste y predicción de la mortalidad en Colombia que permita analizar tendencias por edad, sexo, Departamento y causa. METODOLOGÍA: Los registros de defunciones no fetales fueron utilizados como fuente primaria de análisis. Estos datos se pre-procesaron recodificando las causas y redistribuyendo los códigos basura. El modelo de predicción se formuló como una aproximación lineal de un conjunto de variables de interés, en particular la población y el producto interno bruto departamental. RESULTADOS: Como caso particular de estudio se tomó la mortalidad de menores de 5 años, se observó una disminución sostenida a partir del año 2000 tanto a nivel nacional como departamental, con excepción de tres departamentos. La evaluación del poder predictivo de la metodología propuesta se realizó ajustando el modelo con los datos de 2000 a 2011, la predicción para el 2012 fue comparada con la tasa observada, estos resultados muestran que el modelo es suficientemente confiable para la mayor parte de las combinaciones departamento-causa. CONCLUSIONES: La metodología y modelo propuesto tienen el potencial de convertirse en un instrumento que permita orientar las prioridades del gasto en salud utilizando algún tipo de evidencia.

Automatic segmentation of right ventricle in cardiac cine MR images using a saliency analysis.

PURPOSE: Accurate measurement of the right ventricle (RV) volume is important for the assessment of the ventricular function and a biomarker of the progression of any cardiovascular disease. However, the high RV variability makes difficult a proper delineation of the myocardium wall. This paper introduces a new automatic method for segmenting the RV volume from short axis cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) images by a salient analysis of temporal and spatial observations. METHODS: The RV volume estimation starts by localizing the heart as the region with the most coherent motion during the cardiac cycle. Afterward, the ventricular chambers are identified at the basal level using the isodata algorithm, the right ventricle extracted, and its centroid computed. A series of radial intensity profiles, traced from this centroid, is used to search a salient intensity pattern that models the inner-outer myocardium boundary. This process is iteratively applied toward the apex, using the segmentation of the previous slice as a regularizer. The consecutive 2D segmentations are added together to obtain the final RV endocardium volume that serves to estimate also the epicardium. RESULTS: Experiments performed with a public dataset, provided by the RV segmentation challenge in cardiac MRI, demonstrated that this method is highly competitive with respect to the state of the art, obtaining a Dice score of 0.87, and a Hausdorff distance of 7.26 mm while a whole volume was segmented in about 3 s. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method provides an useful delineation of the RV shape using only the spatial and temporal information of the cine MR images. This methodology may be used by the expert to achieve cardiac indicators of the right ventricle function.

Modelo para el análisis de la mortalidad en Colombia 2000-2012 / A model for mortality analysis in Colombia. 2000-2012

RESUMEN Objetivo Proponer y evaluar un modelo para el ajuste y predicción de la mortalidad en Colombia que permita analizar tendencias por edad, sexo, Departamento y causa. Metodología Los registros de defunciones no fetales fueron utilizados como fuente primaria de análisis. Estos datos se pre-procesaron recodificando las causas y redistribuyendo los códigos basura. El modelo de predicción se formuló como una aproximación lineal de un conjunto de variables de interés, en particular la población y el producto interno bruto departamental. Resultados Como caso particular de estudio se tomó la mortalidad de menores de 5 años, se observó una disminución sostenida a partir del año 2000 tanto a nivel nacional como departamental, con excepción de tres departamentos. La evaluación del poder predictivo de la metodología propuesta se realizó ajustando el modelo con los datos de 2000 a 2011, la predicción para el 2012 fue comparada con la tasa observada, estos resultados muestran que el modelo es suficientemente confiable para la mayor parte de las combinaciones departamento-causa. Conclusiones La metodología y modelo propuesto tienen el potencial de convertirse en un instrumento que permita orientar las prioridades del gasto en salud utilizando algún tipo de evidencia.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objective To propose and evaluate a model for fitting and forecasting the mortality rates in Colombia that allows analyzing the trends by age, sex, region and cause of death. Methodology The national death registries were used as primary source of analysis. The data was pre-processed recodifying the cause of death and redistributing the garbage codes. The forecast model was formulated as a linear approximation with a set of variables of interest, in particular the population and gross domestic product (GDP) by region. Results As study case we took the mortality under 5 years old, it decreased steadily since 2000 at the national level and at most of the regions. The predictive power of the proposed methodology was tested by fitting the model with the data from 2000 to 2011, the forecast for 2012 was compared with the actual rate, and these results show the model is reliable enough for most of the region-cause combinations. Conclusions The proposed methodology and model have the potential to become an instrument to guide health spending priorities using some kind of evidence.(AU)