Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Supporting the planning of urban blue-green infrastructure for biodiversity: A multi-scale prioritisation framework.

Primary considerations for urban blue-green infrastructure (BGI) encompass sustainable stormwater/urban heat management while biodiversity conservation is often considered an inherent benefit rather than a core planning requirement. However, ecological function of BGI as 'stepping stones' or linear corridors for otherwise fragmented habitats is undisputed. While quantitative approaches for modelling ecological connectivity in conservation planning are well established, mismatches in scope and scale with models that support the planning of BGI makes their adoption and integration difficult across disciplines. Technical complexities have led to ambiguity around circuit and network-based approaches, focal node placement, spatial extents, and resolution. Furthermore, these approaches are often computationally intensive, and considerable gaps remain in their use for identifying local-scale critical "pinch-points" that urban planners may respond to with the integration of BGI interventions that address biodiversity enhancement among other ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework that simplifies and integrates the merits of regional connectivity assessments with a focus on urban areas to prioritise BGI planning interventions while reducing computational demands. Our framework facilitates: (1) modelling potential ecological corridors at a coarse regional scale, (2) prioritising local-scale BGI interventions based on the relative contribution of individual nodes in this regional network, and (3) inferring connectivity hot- and cold-spots for local-scale BGI interventions. We illustrate this in the Swiss lowlands, demonstrating how, compared to previous work, we are able to identify and rank different priority locations across the region for BGI interventions in support of biodiversity enhancement and how their local-scale functional design may be benefited by addressing specific environmental variables.

Reconciling cities with nature: Identifying local Blue-Green Infrastructure interventions for regional biodiversity enhancement.

Increasing urbanization degrades quantity, quality, and the functionality of spatial cohesion of natural areas essential to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. The uncontrolled pace of building activity and the erosion of blue (i.e., aquatic) and green (i.e., terrestrial) landscape elements threaten existing habitat ranges and movability of wildlife. Local scale measures, such as nature-inspired engineered Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) are emerging mitigation solutions. Originally planned to promote sustainable stormwater management, adaptation to climate change and improved human livability in cities, such instruments offer interesting synergies for biodiversity in support of existing ecological infrastructure. BGI are especially appealing for globally declining amphibians, a rich and diverse vertebrate assemblage sensitive to urbanization. We integrated biological and highly resolved urban-rural land-cover data, ensemble models of habitat suitability, and connectivity models based on circuit theory to improve multi-scale and multi-species protection of core habitats and ecological corridors in the Swiss lowlands. Considering a broad spectrum of amphibian biodiversity, we identified distributions of amphibian biodiversity hotspots and four landscape elements essential to amphibian movability at the regional scale, namely i) forest edges, ii) wet-forest habitats, iii) soils with variable moisture and iv) riparian zones. Our work shows that cities can make a substantial contribution (e.g., up to 15% of urban space in the study area) to wider landscape habitat connectivity. We highlight the importance of planning BGI locally in strategic locations across urban and peri-urban areas to promote the permeability and availability of 'stepping stone' habitats in densely populated landscapes, essential to the maintenance of regional habitat connectivity and thereby enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

A Low-Cost Water Depth and Electrical Conductivity Sensor for Detecting Inputs into Urban Stormwater Networks.

High-resolution data collection of the urban stormwater network is crucial for future asset management and illicit discharge detection, but often too expensive as sensors and ongoing frequent maintenance works are not affordable. We developed an integrated water depth, electrical conductivity (EC), and temperature sensor that is inexpensive (USD 25), low power, and easily implemented in urban drainage networks. Our low-cost sensor reliably measures the rate-of-change of water level without any re-calibration by comparing with industry-standard instruments such as HACH and HORIBA's probes. To overcome the observed drift of level sensors, we developed an automated re-calibration approach, which significantly improved its accuracy. For applications like monitoring stormwater drains, such an approach will make higher-resolution sensing feasible from the budget control considerations, since the regular sensor re-calibration will no longer be required. For other applications like monitoring wetlands or wastewater networks, a manual re-calibration every two weeks is required to limit the sensor's inaccuracies to ±10 mm. Apart from only being used as a calibrator for the level sensor, the conductivity sensor in this study adequately monitored EC between 0 and 10 mS/cm with a 17% relative uncertainty, which is sufficient for stormwater monitoring, especially for real-time detection of poor stormwater quality inputs. Overall, our proposed sensor can be rapidly and densely deployed in the urban drainage network for revolutionised high-density monitoring that cannot be achieved before with high-end loggers and sensors.

A Research Agenda for the Future of Urban Water Management: Exploring the Potential of Nongrid, Small-Grid, and Hybrid Solutions.

Recent developments in high- and middle-income countries have exhibited a shift from conventional urban water systems to alternative solutions that are more diverse in source separation, decentralization, and modularization. These solutions include nongrid, small-grid, and hybrid systems to address such pressing global challenges as climate change, eutrophication, and rapid urbanization. They close loops, recover valuable resources, and adapt quickly to changing boundary conditions such as population size. Moving to such alternative solutions requires both technical and social innovations to coevolve over time into integrated socio-technical urban water systems. Current implementations of alternative systems in high- and middle-income countries are promising, but they also underline the need for research questions to be addressed from technical, social, and transformative perspectives. Future research should pursue a transdisciplinary research approach to generating evidence through socio-technical "lighthouse" projects that apply alternative urban water systems at scale. Such research should leverage experiences from these projects in diverse socio-economic contexts, identify their potentials and limitations from an integrated perspective, and share their successes and failures across the urban water sector.

Testing of new stormwater pollution build-up algorithms informed by a genetic programming approach.

Pollution build-up and wash-off processes are often included in urban stormwater quality models. However, these models are often unreliable and have poor performance at large scales and in complicated catchments. This study tried to improve stormwater quality models by adopting the genetic programming (GP) approach to generate new build-up algorithms for three different pollutants (total suspend solids - TSS, total phosphorus - TP and total nitrogen - TN). This was followed by testing of the new models (also traditional build-up and wash-off models as benchmark) using data collected from different catchments in Australia and the USA. The GP approach informed new sets of build-up algorithms with the inclusion of not just the typical antecedent dry weather period (ADWP), but also other less 'traditional' variables - previous rainfall depth for TSS and maximum air temperatures for TP and TN simulation. The traditional models had relatively poor performance (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, E < 0.0), except for TP at Gilby Road (GR) (E = 0.21 in calibration and 0.43 in validation). Improved performance was observed using the models with new build-up algorithms informed by GP. Taking TP at GR for example, the best performing model had E of 0.46 in calibration and 0.54 in validation. The best performing models for TSS, TP, and TN are often different, suggesting that specific models shall be used for different pollutants. Insights into further improvements possible for stormwater quality models were given. It is recommended that in addition to the typical build-up and wash-off process, new generations of stormwater quality models should be able to account for the non-conventional pollutant sources (e.g. cross-connections, septic tank leakage, illegal discharges) through stochastic approaches. Emission inventories with information like intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) of pollutant loads from each type of non-conventional source are suggested to be built for stochastic modelling.

Understanding spatiotemporal variability of in-stream water quality in urban environments - A case study of Melbourne, Australia.

To support sustainable urban planning and the design of water pollution mitigation strategies, the spatial and temporal trends of water quality in urban streams needs to be further understood. This study analyses over ten years of surface water quality data from 53 upstream catchments (20 of them predominated by a single type of land use) and two lowland sites across Greater Melbourne, Australia. We evaluated the impact of various catchment characteristics, especially urban land uses, on spatial and temporal urban water quality trends. Here, we focused on common urban pollutants: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu) and nickel (Ni). Site median nutrient and heavy metal concentrations were negatively correlated with the catchment's elevation and its average annual rainfall. Further analysis shows that such trends were driven by the geographical pattern of Melbourne - i.e. low-laying sites tend to have less rainfall and be more urbanised. Only median concentrations of heavy metals (Zn and Cu) were correlated to catchment imperviousness. Further characterising of the urban environment was done into specific land uses (residential, industrial and commercial), yet median concentrations of all pollutants were not significantly correlated with land uses. This is because simple metrics, such as land use proportions, do not adequately reflect the significant variability in pollution sources that can exist even within the same land use type. Indeed, our temporal analysis found that the water quality difference between catchments with similar land uses is likely caused by their site-specific pollutant sources (construction and illegal discharge) and environmental management actions (wastewater management actions) regardless of similarities in land use. A 3-stage urbanisation cycle (development, operation and renewal) is suggested to further explain the urban water quality variance, but more data from small areas of an urban catchment is required to directly understand the unique impact of each urbanisation stage on water quality.

A planning algorithm for quantifying decentralised water management opportunities in urban environments.

With global change bringing about greater challenges for the resilient planning and management of urban water infrastructure, research has been invested in the development of a strategic planning tool, DAnCE4Water. The tool models how urban and societal changes impact the development of centralised and decentralised (distributed) water infrastructure. An algorithm for rigorous assessment of suitable decentralised stormwater management options in the model is presented and tested on a local Melbourne catchment. Following detailed spatial representation algorithms (defined by planning rules), the model assesses numerous stormwater options to meet water quality targets at a variety of spatial scales. A multi-criteria assessment algorithm is used to find top-ranking solutions (which meet a specific treatment performance for a user-defined percentage of catchment imperviousness). A toolbox of five stormwater technologies (infiltration systems, surface wetlands, bioretention systems, ponds and swales) is featured. Parameters that set the algorithm's flexibility to develop possible management options are assessed and evaluated. Results are expressed in terms of 'utilisation', which characterises the frequency of use of different technologies across the top-ranking options (bioretention being the most versatile). Initial results highlight the importance of selecting a suitable spatial resolution and providing the model with enough flexibility for coming up with different technology combinations. The generic nature of the model enables its application to other urban areas (e.g. different catchments, local municipal regions or entire cities).

Integrating CFD-GIS modelling to refine urban heat and thermal comfort assessment.

Constant urban growth exacerbates the demand for residential, commercial and traffic areas, leading to progressive surface sealing and urban densification. With climate change altering precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide, cities are exposed to multiple risks, demanding holistic and anticipatory urban planning strategies and adaptive measures that are multi-beneficial. Sustainable urban planning requires comprehensive tools that account for different aspects and boundary conditions and are capable of mapping and assessing crucial processes of land-atmosphere interactions and the impacts of adaptation measures on the urban climate system. Here, we combine Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities to refine an existing 2D urban micro- and bioclimatic modelling approach. In particular, we account for the vertical and horizontal variability in wind speed and air temperature patterns in the urban canopy layer. Our results highlight the importance of variability of these patterns in analysing urban heat development, intensity and thermal comfort at multiple heights from the ground surface. Neglecting vertical and horizontal variability, non-integrated CFD modelling underestimates mean land surface temperature by 7.8 °C and the Universal Thermal Climate Index by 6.9 °C compared to CFD-integrated modelling. Due to the strong implications of wind and air temperature patterns on the relationship between surface temperature and human thermal comfort, we urge caution when relying on studies solely based on surface temperatures for urban heat assessment and hot spot analysis as this could lead to misinterpretations of hot and cool spots in cities and, thus, mask the anticipated effects of adaptation measures. The integrated CFD-GIS modelling approach, which we demonstrate, improves urban climate studies and supports more comprehensive assessments of urban heat and human thermal comfort to sustainably develop resilient cities.

A Simplified Sanitary Sewer System Generator for Exploratory Modelling at City-Scale.

Future climatic, demographic, technological, urban and socio-economic challenges call for more flexible and sustainable wastewater infrastructure systems. Exploratory modelling can help to investigate the consequences of these developments on the infrastructure. In order to explore large numbers of adaptation strategies, we need to re-balance the degree of realism of sewer network and ability to reflect key performance characteristics against the model's parsimony and computational efficiency. We present a spatially explicit algorithm for creating sanitary sewer networks that realistically represent key characteristics of a real system. Basic topographic, demographic and urban characteristics are abstracted into a squared grid of 'Blocks' which are the foundation for the sewer network's topology delineation. We compare three different pipe dimensioning approaches and found a good balance between detail and computational efficiency. With a basic hydraulic performance assessment, we demonstrate that we attain a computationally efficient and high-fidelity wastewater sewer network with adequate hydraulic performance. A spatial resolution of 250 m Block size in combination with a sequential Pipe-by-Pipe (PBP) design algorithm provides a sound trade-off between computational time and fidelity of relevant structural and hydraulic properties for exploratory modelling. We can generate a simplified sewer network (both topology and hydraulic design) in 18 s using PBP, versus 36 min using a highly detailed model or 1 s using a highly abstract model. Moreover, this simplification can cut up to 1/10th to 1/50th the computational time for the hydraulic simulations depending on the routing method implemented. We anticipate our model to be a starting point for sophisticated exploratory modelling into possible infrastructure adaptation measures of topological and loading changes of sewer systems for long-term planning.

Stormwater management impacts of small urbanising towns: The necessity of investigating the 'devil in the detail'.

In many parts of the world, small towns are experiencing high levels of population growth and development. However, there is little understanding of how urban growth in these regional towns will impact urban runoff. We used the case study of Wangaratta, located in South-East Australia, between 2006 and 2016, to investigate land cover changes and their impacts on urban runoff discharge. Detailed spatio-temporal analysis (including neighbourhood composition analysis and supervised classification of aerial imagery) identified that population, land use and land cover changes in Wangaratta, although subtle, were mostly driven by residential growth in the outskirts of the town, where there were large increases in impervious surface area. Overall, the urban growth was minimal. However, in spite of these small changes, a sub-catchment only SWMM model showed that the increase in impervious surface area nevertheless resulted in a statistically significant increase in total runoff across the town. Particularly, this increase was most pronounced for frequent and shorter storms. The analysis of urban development pattern changes coupled with urban hydrological modelling indicated that land cover changes in regional towns, especially when analysed in detail, may result in hydrological changes in the urban region (likely to be exacerbated in coming years by changing climate) and that adaptation efforts will need to adopt a variety of approaches in both existing and growth zones. Our findings highlight the necessity of detailed fine-scale analyses in small towns as even subtle changes will have substantial future implications and robust planning and adaptation decisions are even more important when compared to larger cities due to the greater economic constraints that small towns face and their important relationship with the surrounding hinterlands.

Rainwater harvesting for urban flood management - An integrated modelling framework.

It is well known that rainwater harvesting (RWH) can augment water supply and reduce stormwater pollutant discharges. Due to the lack of continuous 2D modelling of urban flood coverage and its associated damage, the ability of RWH to reduce urban flood risks has not been fully evaluated. Literature suggests that small distributed storage spaces using RWH tanks will reduce flood damage only during small to medium flooding events and therefore cumulative assessment of their benefits is needed. In this study we developed a new integrated modelling framework that implements a semi-continuous simulation approach to investigate flood prevention and water supply benefits of RWH tanks. The framework includes a continuous mass balance simulation model that considers antecedent rainfall conditions and water demand/usage of tanks and predicts the available storage prior to each storm event. To do so, this model couples a rainfall-runoff tank storage model with a detailed stochastic end-use water demand model. The available storage capacity of tanks is then used as a boundary condition for the novel rapid flood simulation model. This flood model was developed by coupling the U.S. EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to the Cellular-Automata Fast Flood Evaluation (CA-ffé) model to predict the inundation depth caused by surcharges over the capacity of the drainage network. The stage-depth damage curves method was used to calculate time series of flood damage, which are then directly used for flood risk and cost-benefit analysis. The model was tested through a case study in Melbourne, using a recorded rainfall time series of 85 years (after validating the flood model against 1D-2D MIKE-FLOOD). Results showed that extensive implementation of RWH tanks in the study area is economically feasible and can reduce expected annual damage in the catchment by up to approximately 30 percent. Availability of storage space and temporal distribution of rainfall within an event were important factors affecting tank performance for flood reduction.

A spatial planning-support system for generating decentralised urban stormwater management schemes.

Current Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) models are either purely technical or overly simplified, lacking consideration of urban planning and stakeholder preferences to adequately support stakeholders. We developed the Urban Biophysical Environments and Technologies Simulator (UrbanBEATS), which integrates stormwater management with urban planning to support the design and implementation of WSUD. This study specifically describes and tests UrbanBEATS' WSUD Planning Module, which combines spatial analysis, infrastructure design, preference elicitation and Monte Carlo methods to generate feasible stormwater management and harvesting infrastructure options in greenfield and existing urban environments. By applying UrbanBEATS to a real-world greenfield development case study in Melbourne, Australia (with data sourced from the project's water management plans and design consultants), we explore the variety of options generated by the model and analyse them collectively to demonstrate that UrbanBEATS can design similar WSUD systems (e.g. select suitable technology types, their sizes and locations) to actual infrastructure choices.

Quantifying the benefits of stormwater harvesting for pollution mitigation.

Stormwater harvesting (SWH) provides multiple benefits to urban water management. Other than providing water for human use, it also reduces the volume of polluted stormwater discharge to the environment. There are currently no methods available to quantify the additional environmental benefits, which could encourage greater uptake of the practice. This paper investigates a number of factors (climate and catchment characteristics, pollutant reduction targets, etc.) that could impact upon the benefits of SWH for pollution reduction through sensitivity analyses. A method was developed and tested for quantification of the pollution mitigation benefits by SWH under different scenarios. A novel indicator, Impervious Area Offset (IAO), was proposed to reflect the additional impervious area that can be left untreated to achieve the equivalent pollution load reduction targets due to the introduction of SWH. Results indicate significant correlations (p < 0.01) between IAO values and extraction rate (proportion of total annual runoff removed due to the harvesting system and water use substitution), system type, and pollutant reduction targets. The proposed linear empirical relationships between IAO values and extraction rate for different types of system configurations and pollution reduction targets were well represented by observed linear regression (average R2 = 0.98 for all tested scenarios). Empirical relationships were validated successfully against different scenarios, with differences between predicted IAO and baseline IAO values being only ±4.5% for the majority of the validation scenarios. Using this simple and reliable method to rapidly quantify SWH benefits can further add to the growing business case of adopting SWH practices.

A planning-support tool for spatial suitability assessment of green urban stormwater infrastructure.

Distributed green stormwater management infrastructure is increasingly applied worldwide to counter the negative impacts of urbanisation and climate change, while providing a range of benefits related to ecosystem services. They are known as Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) in Australia, Nature Based Solutions (NBS) in Europe, Low Impact Development (LID) in the USA, and Sponge City systems in China. Urban planning for WSUD has been ad-hoc, lacking strategy and resulting in sub-optimal outcomes. The purpose of this study is to help improve strategic WSUD planning and placement through the development of a Planning Support System. This paper presents the development of Spatial Suitability ANalysis TOol (SSANTO), a rapid GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tool using a flexible mix of techniques to map suitability for WSUD assets across urban areas. SSANTO applies a novel WSUD suitability framework, which conceptualises spatial suitability for WSUD implementation from two perspectives: 'Needs' and 'Opportunities' for WSUD. It combines biophysical as well as socio-economic, planning and governance criteria ('Opportunities') with criteria relating to ecosystem services ('Needs'). Testing SSANTO through comparing its results to work done by a WSUD consultancy successfully verified its algorithms and demonstrated its capability to reflect and potentially enhance the outcomes of planning processes. Manual GIS based suitability analysis is time and resource intensive. Through its rapid suitability analysis, SSANTO facilitates iterative spatial analysis for exploration of scenarios and stakeholder preferences. It thus facilitates collaborative planning and deeper understanding of the relationship between diverse and complex urban contexts and urban planning outcomes for WSUD.

Redefining the stormwater first flush phenomenon.

The first flush in urban runoff has been an important, yet disputed phenomenon amongst many researchers. The vast differences in the evidence could be solely due to limitations of the first flush current definition and the approach used for its assessment. There is a need for revisiting the first flush theory in the light of its practical applications to urban drainage management practices. We propose that a catchment's first flush behaviour is to be quantified by the runoff volume required to reduce a catchment's stormwater pollutant concentrations to background levels. The proposed method for assessment of this runoff volume starts by finding the average catchment pollutant concentrations for a given increment of discharged volume using a number of event pollutographs. Non-parametric statistics are then used to establish the characteristic pollutograph by pooling statistically indifferent runoff increments (known as slices) together. This allows the identification of the catchment's initial and background pollutant concentrations and for quantification of the first flush volume and its strength. The novel technique was used on seven catchments around Melbourne, Australia, with promising results. Sensitivity to the chosen increment of runoff (for which mean concentrations are calculated) indicated that when dealing with discrete flow-weighted water quality data, a suitable slice size should closely match the flow-weighting of samples. The overall sensitivity to runoff increment and level of significance was found to be negligible. Further research is needed to fully develop this method.