Evidence of cushioning of tobacco tax increases in large retailers in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco companies may attempt to minimise the impact of tobacco tax increases on consumers by gradually passing on the price rise over several months. This study examined whether there was evidence of large Australian tobacco retailers engaging in this practice (known as cushioning) over a period including both routine indexation and large annual tobacco excise increases. METHODS: Advertised prices of nine factory-made cigarette (FMC) and nine roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) products were recorded from two stores monthly from December 2016 to December 2019. Per cent change in price from the previous month was analysed for FMC and RYO products, controlling for year, month, tobacco company and supermarket chain. RESULTS: Significant main effects of month were observed for FMC and RYO products (both p<0.001). Large, significant average increases in per cent change in price were observed in September for FMC (6.51%) and RYO (11.45%) products, the month of the annual excise increase and prices also significantly increased in October (FMC: 3.01%; RYO: 1.91%). Significant increases were also observed in the months after the March annual routine indexation: by 1.10% in May for FMC products and by 1.09% in April for RYO products. CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated evidence of cushioning of tax increases of FMC and RYO products in large Australian supermarkets. The monthly per cent change in price significantly increased several months after routine excise indexation and in the 2 months following a large annual excise increase. Further research with a larger sample of products and stores is needed to confirm these findings.

Obesity prevention and related public health advertising versus competing commercial advertising expenditure in Australia.

Mass media campaigns can change attitudes and behaviours to improve population health. However, a key challenge is achieving share of voice in a complex and cluttered media environment. The aim of this study was to compare advertising expenditure on public health campaigns for obesity prevention (and related healthy eating and physical activity campaigns) with competing commercial categories of (a) sugary drinks, (b) artificially sweetened drinks and (c) diet/weight loss products and programmes. These commercial products may either undermine or dilute public health messages by directly contributing to poor health or confusing the public about the best ways to sustain a healthy lifestyle. Monthly estimates of advertising expenditure in Australian media (television, outdoor, cinema, radio, newspapers, magazines and digital) were obtained from Nielsen Media for 2016-18. Eligible public health advertising expenditure for the entire period (total AUD$27M) was vastly outweighed by the commercial categories of sugary drinks (AUD$129M) and diet/weight loss products and services (AUD$122M). Artificially sweetened drinks accounted for an additional AUD$23M of expenditure. These results highlight the need to rebalance the ratio of advertising to support public health in Australia through increased funding for obesity prevention and related campaigns, and critically, through government regulation to limit competing commercial advertising.

Are anti-smoking social norms associated with tobacco control mass media campaigns, tax and policy changes? Findings from an Australian serial cross-sectional population study of smokers.

BACKGROUND: Anti-smoking social norms are associated with subsequent quitting behaviours. We examined if exposure to tobacco control advertisements and policy changes predict subjective (perceived disapproval of smoking among close family and friends) and internalised injunctive norms (embarrassed about telling others you are a smoker). METHODS: A serial cross-sectional population survey of Australian adult smokers (n=6649; 2012 to 2015). Logistic regression analyses examined associations of social norms with exposure to different types of tobacco control advertisements, tax increases and other tobacco control policies, adjusting for key demographic, smoking and media exposure covariates. Interaction analyses examined differences by age and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: Greater past month exposure to predominantly fear-evoking advertisements was associated with increased odds of perceiving disapproval (per 1000 gross rating points: adjusted OR (AOR) 2.69, 95% CI: 1.34 to 5.39), while exposure to advertisements evoking multiple negative emotions (fear, guilt, sadness) reduced perceived disapproval (AOR 0.61, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.87). Increased perceived disapproval was also associated with anticipation (AOR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.88), and implementation of a series of annual 12.5% tobacco tax rises (AOR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.94). Associations were consistent across age and SES. There were no associations nor subgroup interactions between advertisement exposure or policy changes and feeling embarrassed about telling others you are a smoker. CONCLUSION: Smokers' perceptions of family and friends' disapproval of their smoking was more common after exposure to fear-evoking tobacco control campaigns and after large tobacco tax increases were announced and implemented.

Indexation of Tobacco Excise and Customs Duty and Smoking Prevalence Among Australian Adults, 2001-2010: A Serial Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Australia's excise and customs duty on tobacco has been automatically increased biannually since 1984. Increases in duty on par with inflation ensured that tobacco stayed at least as costly as other goods. This would be expected to maintain, rather than drive down, smoking prevalence. We examined the association between smoking prevalence and duty over a 10-year period. METHODS: Using monthly data from five Australian capital cities, collected from March 2001 to March 2010 among Australians aged at least 18 years, multiple linear regression modeled associations between smoking prevalence and the two components (duty and non-duty) of the recommended retail price of an average packet of cigarettes, adjusting for policy covariates. RESULTS: Prevalence declined from 23.6% in March 2001 to 17.0% in March 2010 [absolute difference 6.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.5 to 6.8]. Duty increased from $0.2026 to $0.2622 per cigarette over the same period. In the adjusted model, a 1-cent increase in the duty component of price was not associated with changes in prevalence (0.019; 95% CI = -0.035 to 0.028). Increased non-duty component of price was associated with a decline in prevalence (-0.027; 95% CI = -0.052 to -0.002). This effect was stronger when changes in income were controlled for. CONCLUSIONS: In line with expectations, inflation-adjusted duty was not associated with changes in smoking prevalence, but it may have prevented upward pressure on prevalence that increasing affordability could have exerted. Frequent increases in duty greater than the growth in both wages and goods would more effectively reduce smoking than regular indexation. IMPLICATIONS: Few countries inflation-adjusted excise duty to ensure that tobacco products do not become more affordable; however, Australia experienced a decade of inflation adjustment alone, enabling the impact of this policy to be studied. This study shows that inflation-adjusted duty likely did prevent tobacco becoming more affordable and that indexation was associated with declines in smoking when tobacco companies over-shifted the duty rises (ie, increased price over and above duty rises).The study also suggests that frequent increases in taxation that exceed both wage growth and increases in costliness of other goods are needed to prompt increased rates of quitting.

Who uses rollies? Trends in product offerings, price and use of roll-your-own tobacco in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco product market in Australia from 2001 to 2016. Trends in use of RYO tobacco among Australian adults were examined for 2004-2016. METHODS: Changes in brand availability, pouch sizes and lowest priced products were noted from trade magazines. Prevalence of smoking of RYO and factory-made (FM) cigarettes among those 18 years and older was obtained from five consecutive waves of a large (n>21 000) nationally representative triennial survey from 2004 to 2016. Trends in cigarette use were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Changes in the Australian RYO market from 2001 to 2016 included a doubling in the number of brands, progressively smaller pouch sizes with smaller increases in price than in traditional RYO and comparable FM products. While use of FM cigarettes declined between 2004 and 2016, the proportion of adults exclusively using RYO tobacco linearly increased with each survey wave (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05, p<0.001), from 1.2% in 2004 to 1.7% in 2016. Exclusive RYO use among current smokers increased more among females than males, and young adults compared with those aged 30 years or older, but did not differ by socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to substantial declines in FM cigarette use, exclusive use of RYO cigarettes increased in Australians since 2004, particularly among females and young adults. This has corresponded to a period of substantial changes to the RYO market, including progressively smaller and relatively more affordable products. Policy action to reduce price-related marketing and correct consumer misinformation about RYO tobacco are urgently required.

Tobacco product developments in the Australian market in the 4 years following plain packaging.

This paper aimed to identify continued and emerging trends in the Australian tobacco market following plain packaging implementation, over a period of substantial increases in tobacco taxes. Since 2012, our surveillance activities (including review of trade product and price lists, ingredient reports submitted by tobacco companies to government and monitoring of the retail environment) found several trends in the factory-made cigarette market. These include the continued release of extra-long and slim cigarettes and packs with bonus cigarettes, particularly in the mainstream and premium market segments; new menthol capsule products; other novel flavourings in cigarettes; filter innovations including recessed and firm filters; continued use of evocative and descriptive product names; the proliferation of the new super-value market segment; and umbrella branding, where new products are introduced within established brand families. Several similar trends were also observed within the smoking tobacco market. While not all of these trends were new to the Australian market at the time of plain packaging implementation, their continued and increased use is notable. Plain packaging legislation could be strengthened to standardise cigarette and pack size, restrict brand and variant names, and ban features such as menthol capsules and filters innovations that provide novelty value or that may provide false reassurance to smokers.

Tobacco price boards as a promotional strategy-a longitudinal observational study in Australian retailers.

BACKGROUND: Price boards in tobacco retailers are one of the few forms of tobacco promotion remaining in Australia. This study aimed to examine how these boards were used to promote products over a period of rapidly rising taxes. METHODS: Observations were made in a panel of 350 stores in Melbourne, Australia, in November of 2013 (just before) and in 2014 and 2015 (after 12.5% increases in tobacco duty). Fieldworkers unobtrusively noted the presence and characteristics of price boards, and the brand name, size and price of the product at the top of each board. RESULTS: Price boards were common in all store types apart from newsagent/lottery agents. The characteristics of the top-listed product changed notably over time: premium brands accounted for 66% of top-listed products in 2013, significantly declining to 43% in 2015, while packs of 20 cigarettes increased in prominence from 32% to 45%. The prevalence of packs of 20 cigarettes in budget market segments tripled from 2013 (13%) and 2014 (11%) to 32% in 2015, with no change in the proportion of packs that were under $A20 from 2014 (37%) to 2015 (36%). The rate of increase in the average price of the top-listed pack correspondingly flattened from 2014 to 2015 compared with 2013-2014. CONCLUSIONS: Price boards promote tobacco products in ways that undermine the effectiveness of tax policy as a means of discouraging consumption. Communication to consumers about prices should be restricted to information sheets provided to adult smokers on request at the point of sale.

Observed smoking and tobacco pack display in Australian outdoor cafés 2 years after implementation of plain packaging.

Background: Implementation of tobacco plain packaging (PP) in Australia in December 2012 was associated with significant reductions in the percentage of patrons at outdoor cafés observed to be displaying tobacco packs and actively smoking, immediately post-implementation and 1 year later. This study examines whether these positive effects were sustained through to 2 years post-PP. Methods: An observational study conducted at cafés, restaurants and bars with outdoor seating in Melbourne, Australia documented the number of: patrons; patrons actively smoking; tobacco packs on display; orientation and type of displayed packs and whether or not children were present. Data were collected pre-PP (2012), early post-PP (2013), 1 year post-PP (2014) and 2 years post-PP (2015). Multilevel Poisson regressions analyzed changes in each outcome, adjusting for important covariates. Results: Overall, positive effects of PP implementation on tobacco pack display and active smoking were not fully sustained through to 2 years post-PP for the total sample. Interactions between phase and the presence of children indicated that pack display and active smoking were lower in all post-implementation phases (compared with pre-PP) at venues where children were present but not at venues where children were not present. Conclusions: Children at outdoor cafés were still being exposed to less tobacco packaging and active smoking, 2 years after implementation of the packaging changes. More regular refreshment of graphic health warnings is likely to be required to sustain these effects, and to reduce pack display behaviour at venues with no children.

Fear, Sadness and Hope: Which Emotions Maximize Impact of Anti-Tobacco Mass Media Advertisements among Lower and Higher SES Groups?

Emotive anti-tobacco advertisements can increase quitting. Discrete emotion theories suggest evoking fear may be more effective than sadness; less research has focused on hope. A weekly cross-sectional survey of smokers and recent quitters (N = 7683) measured past-month quit attempts. The main predictor was level of exposure to four different types of anti-tobacco advertisements broadcast in the two months prior to quit attempts: advertisements predominantly evoking fear, sadness, hope, or evoking multiple negative emotions (i.e., fear, guilt, and/or sadness). Greater exposure to fear-evoking advertisements (OR = 2.16, p < .01) increased odds of making a quit attempt and showed similar effectiveness among those in lower and higher SES areas. Greater exposure to advertisements evoking multiple negative emotions increased quit attempts (OR = 1.70, p < .01), but interactions indicated this was driven by those in lower SES, but not higher SES areas. Greater exposure to hope-evoking advertisements enhanced effects of fear-evoking advertisements among those in higher SES, but not lower SES areas. Findings suggest to be maximally effective across the whole population avoid messages evoking sadness and use messages eliciting fear. If the aim is to specifically motivate those living in lower SES areas where smoking rates are higher, multiple negative emotion messages, but not hope-evoking messages, may also be effective.

Plain packaging: a logical progression for tobacco control in one of the world's 'darkest markets'.

The Australian approach to tobacco control has been a comprehensive one, encompassing mass media campaigns, consumer information, taxation policy, access for smokers to smoking cessation advice and pharmaceutical treatments, protection from exposure to tobacco smoke and regulation of promotion. World-first legislation to standardise the packaging of tobacco was a logical next step to further reduce misleadingly reassuring promotion of a product known for the past 50 years to kill a high proportion of its long-term users. Similarly, refreshed, larger pack warnings which started appearing on packs at the end of 2012 were a logical progression of efforts to ensure that consumers are better informed about the health risks associated with smoking. Regardless of the immediate effects of legislation, further progress will continue to require a comprehensive approach to maintain momentum and ensure that government efforts on one front are not undermined by more vigorous efforts and greater investment by tobacco companies elsewhere.

The advertised price of cigarette packs in retail outlets across Australia before and after the implementation of plain packaging: a repeated measures observational study.

OBJECTIVE: This study monitored the advertised price of the most prominently promoted and the cheapest single packs of cigarettes in Australian retail outlets before and after the implementation of plain packaging. METHODS: A panel of 421 outlets in four large Australian cities was visited monthly from May 2012 to August 2013 and the brand, pack size and price of the most-prominently listed and lowest-priced single cigarette pack were recorded from each store's tobacco price board. Changes in the inflation-adjusted stick price were examined using linear mixed models, controlling for fixed effects of city, store type, area socioeconomic status and random effects of time. The adjusted stick price was also examined over time by tobacco manufacturer and pack size. RESULTS: The inflation-adjusted stick price of the most-prominently advertised single packs was significantly higher than in May-July 2012 from August-October 2012 for mainstream and premium brands and from February-April 2013 for value brands. Adjusted average stick prices of lowest-priced packs in August 2013 were $0.02 (95% CI $0.02 to $0.03, p<0.001) higher than in May-July 2012 ($Aug13). A large real increase in stick price was seen in February-April 2013 across all major manufacturers, market segments and pack size categories. DISCUSSION: The price of cigarettes most prominently promoted on price boards did not decrease in the months following implementation of Australia's plain packaging legislation. Retail prices continued to increase above the level resulting from automatic indexation of excise/customs duty even at the lowest-priced end of the Australian market.

Did the recommended retail price of tobacco products fall in Australia following the implementation of plain packaging?

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the extent of any fall in recommended retail prices (RRPs) of tobacco products sold in Australia following the 2012 implementation of plain packaging. METHODS: RRPs published in price lists by the New South Wales Retail Tobacco Traders Association covering the months of November 2011, November 2012 and November 2013 were recorded for all listed brands and pack sizes. Average prices per stick were computed in 2013 dollars for cigarette brands in each of 10 possible pack sizes, for each major tobacco manufacturer, and across market segments. Average prices per gram in Australian dollars adjusted to 2013 prices (AUD2013) were calculated for roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco brands for each major manufacturer. RESULTS: Inflation-adjusted average RRPs per stick in November 2013 were on average 6.4% higher than in November 2011 and 3.4% higher than in November 2012. The average RRP per gram of RYO products in November 2013 was 10.2% and 5.4% higher than in November 2011 and November 2012, respectively. Within cigarette brands, the highest increases in RRP from 2011 to 2013 were seen among mainstream and premium brands (10.0% and 10.1%, respectively) and among packs of 30s (18.3%) and 50s (12.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The RRPs of tobacco products were higher in real terms 1 year after Australia's plain packaging legislation was implemented. These increases exceeded increases resulting from Consumer Price Index (CPI) indexation of duty and occurred across all three major manufacturers for both factory made and RYO brands, all three cigarette market segments and all major pack sizes.

Availability of illicit tobacco in small retail outlets before and after the implementation of Australian plain packaging legislation.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess change in the availability of illicit tobacco in small mixed business retail outlets following the December 2012 introduction of plain packaging in Australia. METHODS: 303 small retail outlets were visited in June and September 2012 (baseline months), and in December 2012 and February, April and July 2013. Fieldworkers requested a particular low-cost brand of cigarettes and then pressed the retailer for an 'even cheaper' brand. The cheapest pack of cigarettes offered was purchased and later examined to assess any divergence from prescribed Australian packaging regulations. The price paid was compared with tax liability and recommended retail price for the particular brand and pack size. In a sub-set of 179 stores, fieldworkers then asked the retailer about availability of unbranded (chop-chop) tobacco. RESULTS: Thirteen (2.2%) of 598 packs purchased pre-plain packaging were either non-compliant with Australian health warnings and/or suspiciously priced. Four packs (1.3%) of 297 met either or both criteria in the December implementation month, and five (0.6%) of 878 did so in the three collection months following implementation. Chop-chop was offered upon enquiry on 0.6% (n=2) of 338 occasions prior to implementation, 0.6% (n=1) of 170 occasions in the December 2012 implementation month, and 0.6% (n=3) of 514 occasions postimplementation. The likelihood of a 'positive' response (either an offer to sell or information about where unbranded tobacco may be purchased) did not differ across preimplementation, during-implementation and postimplementation waves. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, packs judged likely to be illicit were sold in response to requests for cheapest available packs on fewer than one percent of occasions. Offers to sell unbranded tobacco were rare. No change in availability of illicit tobacco was observed following implementation of plain packaging.

Standardised packaging and new enlarged graphic health warnings for tobacco products in Australia-legislative requirements and implementation of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Act 2011 and the Competition and Consumer (Tobacco) Information Standard, 2011.

This paper describes the development, content and implementation of two pieces of Australian tobacco control legislation: one to standardise the packaging of tobacco products and the other to introduce new, enlarged graphic health warnings. It describes the process of legislative drafting, public consultation and parliamentary consideration. It summarises exactly how tobacco products have been required to look since late 2012. Finally, it describes implementation, most particularly, the extent to which packs compliant with the legislation became available to consumers over time.

Changes in use of types of tobacco products by pack sizes and price segments, prices paid and consumption following the introduction of plain packaging in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To describe changes among smokers in use of various types of tobacco products, reported prices paid and cigarette consumption following the standardisation of tobacco packaging in Australia. METHODS: National cross-sectional telephone surveys of adult smokers were conducted from April 2012 (6 months before transition to plain packaging (PP)) to March 2014 (15 months afterwards). Multivariable logistic regression assessed changes in products, brands and pack types/sizes; multivariable linear regression examined changes in inflation-adjusted prices paid and reported cigarette consumption between the pre-PP and three subsequent periods-the transition phase, PP year 1 and PP post-tax (post a 12.5% tax increase in December 2013). RESULTS: The proportion of current smokers using roll-your-own (RYO) products fluctuated over the study period. Proportions using value brands of factory-made (FM) cigarettes increased from pre-PP (21.4%) to PP year 1 (25.5%; p=0.002) and PP post-tax (27.8%; p<0.001). Inflation-adjusted prices paid increased in the PP year 1 and PP post-tax phases; the largest increases were among premium FM brands, the smallest among value brands. Consumption did not change in PP year 1 among daily, regular or current smokers or among smokers of brands in any market segment. Consumption among regular smokers declined significantly in PP post-tax (mean=14.0, SE=0.33) compared to PP year 1 (mean=14.8, SE=0.17; p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of PP was associated with an increase in use of value brands, likely due to increased numbers available and smaller increases in prices for value relative to premium brands. Reported consumption declined following the December 2013 tax increase.

Personal pack display and active smoking at outdoor café strips: assessing the impact of plain packaging 1†year postimplementation.

AIMS: We observed tobacco pack display and smoking at outdoor venues over three summers to assess changes in their prevalence following Australia's introduction of plain tobacco packaging with larger pictorial health warnings. METHODS: Between January and April 2012 (preplain packaging (PP)), 2013 (early post-PP) and 2014 (1 year post-PP), we counted patrons, smokers and tobacco packs at cafés, restaurants and bars with outdoor seating. Pack type (branded, plain or unknown) and orientation were noted. Rates of active smoking, pack display and pack orientation were analysed using multilevel Poisson regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of pack display among patrons declined from pre-PP (1 pack per 8.7 patrons) to early post-PP (1 pack per 10.4), and remained low 1 year post-PP (1 pack per 10.3). This appeared to be driven by a sustained decline in active smoking post-PP (pre-PP: 8.4% of patrons were smoking; early post-PP: 6.4%; 1 year post-PP: 6.8%). Notably, active smoking declined more in venues with children present than in those without. While early post-PP, plain packs were less often displayed face-up (74.0%) and more often concealed (8.9%) than branded packs pre-PP (face-up: 85.2%; concealed: 4.0%), this was not sustained 1 year post-PP (face-up: 85.7%; concealed: 4.4%). Also, external case use increased from pre-PP (1.2%) to early post-PP (3.5%), but returned to pre-PP levels 1 year post-PP (1.9%). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a sustained reduction in visibility of tobacco products and smoking in public, particularly in the presence of children, from pre-PP to 1 year post-PP. This effect is likely to reduce smoking-related social norms, thereby weakening an important influence on smoking uptake and better supporting quit attempts.

Responses to antismoking radio and television advertisements among adult smokers and non-smokers across Africa: message-testing results from Senegal, Nigeria and Kenya.

BACKGROUND: This study examined whether adaptation of existing antitobacco television and radio advertisements (ads) from high-income countries is a viable tobacco control strategy for Africa. METHODS: 1078 male and female adult smokers and non-smokers, aged 18-40 years, from major and smaller urban locations in Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal, were recruited into groups using locally appropriate convenience sampling methods and stratified by smoking status, gender, age and socioeconomic status. Eligibility criteria included age, smoking status and literacy. Each participant rated five radio and five TV antismoking ads on five-point scales, which were later aggregated into measures of perceived effectiveness, potential behaviour change and antitobacco industry sentiment/support for government actions. RESULTS: For radio ads across all three countries, two health harms-focused ads-Coughing Child followed by Suffering-had the highest odds of a positive rating on the Perceived Effectiveness measure among smokers and non-smokers. For television ads, the strong graphic ad Baby Alive tended to be rated most positively across the majority of measures by all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: This first systematic study of tobacco control advertisements in Africa is consistent with findings from other countries, suggesting that graphic health-harms ads developed and used in other countries could also be effective in African countries. This implies that adaptation would be a successful approach in Africa, where scarce resources for tobacco control communications can be focused on advertising dissemination, saving programmes from the cost, time and technical expertise required for development of new materials.

Male smoker and non-smoker responses to television advertisements on the harms of secondhand smoke in China, India and Russia.

Mass media campaigns can play an important role in strengthening support for smoke-free policies and reducing exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS). Identifying anti-SHS advertisements that are effective in diverse cultural contexts may allow for resource sharing in low- and middle-income countries. A convenience sample of 481 male cigarette smokers and non-smokers in three high tobacco burden and culturally dissimilar countries (India, China and Russia) viewed and rated five anti-SHS ads. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted for 'Message Acceptance', 'Negative Emotion', 'Perceived Effectiveness' and 'Behavioral Intentions'. Smokers and non-smokers in all countries consistently rated the strong graphic, health harm ads as the most effective, and the 'informational' ad as the least effective overall: the graphic ad 'Baby Alive' was at least 1.8 times more likely than the informational ad 'Smoke-free works' to receive positive ratings on all four outcomes (all P < 0.001). Graphic, health harm messages about SHS exposure have the greatest universal appeal and are the most effective in motivating changes in behavioral intentions. Similarity in reactions between smokers and non-smokers, and across countries, suggests that resource sharing and the use of a single graphic ad targeted at smokers and non-smokers would be cost-efficient strategies.

Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001-2011.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults. METHODS: Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia's five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence. FINDINGS: The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011. CONCLUSION: Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

Product retrieval time in small tobacco retail outlets before and after the Australian plain packaging policy: real-world study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess change in cigarette pack retrieval time in small retail outlets following the introduction of plain packaging in Australia in 1 December 2012. METHODS: A sample of 303 milk bars, convenience stores, petrol stations and newsagents was selected in four capital cities, stratified by area socioeconomic status. In June and September (baseline months), the first 2 weeks of December 2012, and February 2013, stores were visited by trained fieldworkers who requested a cigarette pack of a pre-determined brand, variant and pack size, unobtrusively recording the time from the end of the request to when the pack was scanned or placed on the counter. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, December retrieval time (12.43 s) did not differ from June (10.91 s; p=0.410) or February (10.37 s; p=0.382), but was slower than September (9.84 s; p=0.024). In December, retrieval time declined as days after plain packaging implementation increased (ß=-0.21, p=0.011), returning to the baseline range by the second week of implementation. This pattern was not observed in baseline months or in February. Sensitivity analyses showed that results were robust to the variability in purchasing circumstances in tobacco retail outlets. CONCLUSIONS: Retailers quickly gained experience with the new plain packaging legislation, evidenced by retrieval time having returned to the baseline range by the second week of implementation and remaining so several months later. The long retrieval times predicted by tobacco industry-funded retailer groups and the consequent costs they predicted would fall upon small retailers from plain packaging are unlikely to eventuate.