Incidence and prevalence of giant cell arteritis in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate trends in the incidence and prevalence of GCA over time in Canada. METHODS: We performed a population-based study of Ontario health administrative data using validated case definitions for GCA. Among Ontario residents ≥50 years of age we estimated the annual incidence and prevalence rates between 2000 and 2018. We performed sensitivity analyses using alternative validated case definitions to provide comparative estimates. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2018 there was a relatively stable incidence over time with 25 new cases per 100 000 people >50 years of age. Age-standardized incidence rates were significantly higher among females than males [31 cases (95% CI: 29, 34) vs 15 cases (95% CI: 13, 18) per 100 000 in 2000]. Trends in age-standardized incidence rates were stable among females but increased among males over time. Incidence rates were highest among those ≥70 years of age. Standardized prevalence rates increased from 125 (95% CI 121, 129) to 235 (95% CI 231, 239) cases per 100 000 from 2000 to 2018. The age-standardized rates among males rose from 76 (95% CI 72, 81) cases in 2000 to 156 (95% CI 151, 161) cases per 100 000 population in 2018. Between 2000 and 2018, the age-standardized rates among females similarly increased over time, from 167 (95% CI 161, 173) to 304 (95% CI 297, 310) cases per 100 000 population. CONCLUSION: The incidence and prevalence of GCA in Ontario is similar to that reported in the USA and northern Europe and considerably higher than that reported for southern Europe and non-European populations.

Race and delays in breast cancer treatment across the care continuum in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.

BACKGROUND: After controlling for baseline disease factors, researchers have found that black women have worse breast cancer survival, and this suggests that treatment differences may contribute to poorer outcomes. Delays in initiating and completing treatment are one proposed mechanism. METHODS: Phase 3 of the Carolina Breast Cancer Study involved a large, population-based cohort of women with incident breast cancer. For this analysis, we included black women (n = 1328) and white women (n = 1331) with stage I to III disease whose treatment included surgery with or without adjuvant therapies. A novel treatment pathway grouping was used to benchmark the treatment duration (surgery only, surgery plus chemotherapy, surgery plus radiation, or all 3). Models controlled for the treatment pathway, age, and tumor characteristics and for demographic factors related to health care access. Exploratory analyses of the association between delays and cancer recurrence were performed. RESULTS: In fully adjusted analyses, blacks had 1.73 times higher odds of treatment initiation more than 60 days after their diagnosis in comparison with whites (odds ratio [OR], 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-2.90). Black race was also associated with a longer treatment duration. Blacks were also more likely to be in the highest quartile of treatment duration (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.41-2.02), even after adjustments for demographic and tumor characteristics (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.04-1.64). A nonsignificant trend toward a higher recurrence risk was observed for patients with delayed initiation (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.89-2.33) or the longest duration (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87-1.59). CONCLUSIONS: Black women more often had delayed treatment initiation and a longer duration than whites receiving similar treatment. Interventions that target access barriers may be needed to improve timely delivery of care.

Frequency of breast cancer subtypes among African American women in the AMBER consortium.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer subtype can be classified using standard clinical markers (estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)), supplemented with additional markers. However, automated biomarker scoring and classification schemes have not been standardized. The aim of this study was to optimize tumor classification using automated methods in order to describe subtype frequency in the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk (AMBER) consortium. METHODS: Using immunohistochemistry (IHC), we quantified the expression of ER, PR, HER2, the proliferation marker Ki67, and two basal-like biomarkers, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and cytokeratin (CK)5/6, in 1381 invasive breast tumors from African American women. RNA-based (prediction analysis of microarray 50 (PAM50)) subtype, available for 574 (42%) cases, was used to optimize classification. Subtype frequency was calculated, and associations between subtype and tumor characteristics were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Relative to ER, PR and HER2 from medical records, central IHC staining and the addition of Ki67 or combined tumor grade improved accuracy for classifying PAM50-based luminal subtypes. Few triple negative cases (< 2%) lacked EGFR and CK5/6 expression, thereby providing little improvement in accuracy for identifying basal-like tumors. Relative to luminal A subtype, all other subtypes had higher combined grade and were larger, and ER-/HER2+ tumors were more often lymph node positive and late stage tumors. The frequency of basal-like tumors was 31%, exceeded only slightly by luminal A tumors (37%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that automated IHC-based classification produces tumor subtype frequencies approximating those from PAM50-based classification and highlight high frequency of basal-like and low frequency of luminal A breast cancer in a large study of African American women.

Reproductive risk factor associations with lobular and ductal carcinoma in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.

BACKGROUND: Invasive lobular breast tumors display unique reproductive risk factor profiles. Lobular tumors are predominantly Luminal A subtype, and it is unclear whether reported risk factor associations are independent of molecular subtype. METHODS: Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the associations between risk factors and histologic subtype [ductal (n = 2,856), lobular (n = 326), and mixed ductal-lobular (n = 473)] in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (1993-2013). Three-marker immunohistochemical clinical subtypes were defined as Luminal A (ER+ or PR+/HER2-), Luminal B (ER+ or PR+/HER2+), Triple Negative (ER-/PR-/HER2-), and HER2+ (ER-/PR-/HER2+). RESULTS: In case-case analyses compared to ductal, lobular tumors were significantly associated with lactation duration > 12 months [OR 1.86, 95% CI (1.33-2.60)], age at first birth ≥ 26 years [OR: 1.35, 95% CI: (1.03-1.78)], and current oral contraceptive use [OR: 1.86, 95% CI: (1.08-3.20)]. Differences in risk factor associations between ductal and lobular tumors persisted after restricting to Luminal A subtype. CONCLUSIONS: Lobular tumors were associated with older age at first birth, increased lactation duration, and current oral contraceptive use. Etiologic heterogeneity by histology persisted after restricting to Luminal A subtype, suggesting both tumor histology and intrinsic subtype play integral parts in breast cancer risk.

Effectiveness of a Novel Specimen Collection System in Reducing Blood Culture Contamination Rates.

PROBLEM: False-positive blood-culture results due to skin contamination of samples remain a persistent problem for health care providers. Our health system recognized that our rates of contamination across the 4 emergency department campuses were above the national average. METHODS: A unique specimen collection system was implemented throughout the 4 emergency departments and became the mandatory way to collect adult blood cultures. The microbiology laboratory reported contamination rates weekly to manage potential problems; 7 months of data are presented here. RESULTS: There was an 82.8% reduction in false positives with the unique specimen collection system compared with the standard method (chi-squared test with Yates correction, 2-tailed, P = 0.0001). Based on the historical 3.52% rate of blood-culture contamination for our health facilities, 2.92 false positives were prevented for every 100 blood cultures drawn, resulting from adoption of the unique specimen collection system as the standard of care. CONCLUSION: This unique collection system can reduce the risk of blood culture contamination significantly and is designed to augment, rather than replace, the standard phlebotomy protocol already in use in most health care settings.

Breast cancer biologic and etiologic heterogeneity by young age and menopausal status in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Young-onset breast cancer (<40 years) is associated with worse prognosis and higher mortality. Breast cancer risk factors may contribute to distinct tumor biology and distinct age at onset, but understanding of these relationships has been hampered by limited representation of young women in epidemiologic studies and may be confounded by menopausal status. METHODS: We examined tumor characteristics and epidemiologic risk factors associated with premenopausal women's and young women's breast cancer in phases I-III of the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (5309 cases, 2022 control subjects). Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess heterogeneity by age (<40 vs. ≥40 years) and menopausal status. RESULTS: In both premenopausal and postmenopausal strata, younger women had more aggressive disease, including higher stage, hormone receptor-negative, disease as well as increased frequency of basal-like subtypes, lymph node positivity, and larger tumors. Higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with reduced breast cancer risk among young women but with elevated risk among older women. Parity was associated with increased risk among young women and reduced risk among older women, while breastfeeding was more strongly protective for young women. Longer time since last birth was protective for older women but not for young women. In comparison, when we stratified by age, menopausal status was not associated with distinct risk factor or tumor characteristic profiles, except for progesterone receptor status, which was more commonly positive among premenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: Age is a key predictor of breast cancer biologic and etiologic heterogeneity and may be a stronger determinant of heterogeneity than menopausal status. Young women's breast cancer appears to be etiologically and biologically distinct from that among older women.

Active smoking and risk of Luminal and Basal-like breast cancer subtypes in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.

PURPOSE: Growing evidence suggests an association between active cigarette smoking and increased breast cancer risk. However, the weak magnitude of association and conflicting results have yielded uncertainty and it is unknown whether associations differ by breast cancer subtype. METHODS: Using population-based case-control data from phases I and II of the Carolina Breast Cancer Study, we examined associations between self-reported measures of smoking and risk of Luminal and Basal-like breast cancers. We used logistic regression models to estimate case-control odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Ever smoking (current and former) was associated with a weakly increased risk of Luminal breast cancer (OR 1.12, 95 % CI 0.92-1.36) and was not associated with risk of Basal-like breast cancer (OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.69-1.32). Similarly, smoking duration of more than 20 years was associated with increased risk of Luminal (OR 1.51, 95 % CI 1.19-1.93), but not Basal-like breast cancer (OR 0.90, 95 % CI 0.57-1.43). When stratified by race, elevated odds ratios between smoking and Luminal breast cancer risk were found among black women across multiple exposure measures (ever smoking, duration, and dose); conversely, among white women odds ratios were attenuated or null. CONCLUSIONS: Results from our study demonstrate a positive association between smoking and Luminal breast cancer risk, particularly among black women and women with long smoking histories. Addressing breast cancer heterogeneity in studies of smoking and breast cancer risk may elucidate associations masked in prior studies.

Alcohol intake and invasive breast cancer risk by molecular subtype and race in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.

PURPOSE: Alcohol is an established breast cancer risk factor, but there is little evidence on whether the association differs between African Americans and whites. METHODS: Invasive breast cancers (n = 1,795; 1,014 white, 781 African American) and age- and race-matched controls (n = 1,558; 844 white, 714 African American) from the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (Phases I-II) were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for pre-diagnosis drinks per week and breast cancer risk. RESULTS: African American controls reported lower alcohol intake than white controls across all age groups. Light drinking (0 to ≤2 per week) was more prevalent among African American controls. Moderate-to-heavy drinking was more prevalent in white controls. African Americans who reported drinking >7 drinks per week had an elevated risk compared to light drinkers [adjusted OR, 95% CI 1.62 (1.03-2.54)]. A weaker association was observed among whites [adjusted OR, 95% CI 1.20 (0.87-1.67)]. The association of >7 drinks per week with estrogen receptor-negative [adjusted OR, 95% CI 2.17 (1.25-3.75)] and triple-negative [adjusted OR, 95% CI 2.12 (1.12-4.04)] breast cancers was significant for African American, but not white women. We observed significantly elevated ORs for heavy intake at ages <25 and >50 years of age for African American women only. We found no evidence of statistical interaction between alcohol intake and oral contraceptive use or smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Drinking more than seven alcoholic beverages per week increased invasive breast cancer risk among white and African American women, with significant increases only among African American women. Genetic or environmental factors that differ by race may mediate the alcohol-breast cancer risk association.

Racial differences in physical activity among breast cancer survivors: implications for breast cancer care.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity after breast cancer diagnosis is associated with improved survival. The current study examined levels of and changes in physical activity after breast cancer diagnosis, overall and by race. METHODS: Phase 3 of the Carolina Breast Cancer Study assessed both pre- and postdiagnosis physical activity levels in a cohort of 1735 women aged 20 years to 74 years who were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2008 and 2011 in 44 counties of North Carolina. Logistic regression and analysis of variance were used to examine whether demographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics were associated with activity levels. RESULTS: Only 35% of study participants met current physical activity guidelines after diagnosis with breast cancer. A decrease in activity after diagnosis was reported by 59% of patients, with the average study participant reducing their activity by 15 metabolic equivalent task (MET) hours (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 12 MET hours-19 MET hours). After adjustment for potential confounders, when compared with white women, African American women were less likely to meet national physical activity guidelines after diagnosis (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01-1.88) and reported less weekly postdiagnosis physical activity (12 MET hours vs 14 MET hours; P = .13). In adjusted stratified analyses, receipt of treatment was found to be significantly associated with postdiagnosis activity in African American women (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Despite compelling evidence demonstrating the benefits of physical activity after a diagnosis of breast cancer, it is clear that more work needs to be done to promote physical activity in patients with breast cancer, especially among African American women.

A national survey of emergency nurses and avian influenza threat.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to determine the perceived likelihood of emergency nurses reporting to work during an avian influenza outbreak, to consider options if nurses decided not to report work, and to explore Protection Motivation Theory constructs as predictors of reporting to work. METHODS: A descriptive, nonexperimental, cross-sectional survey of emergency nurses within the United States. RESULTS: A total of 332 nurses (46%) responded. Most emergency nurses (84%) reported they would report to work (1 in 6 would not). The likelihood of reporting to work differed by education level, nurses' avian influenza information sources, and nurses who had family living with them. Of the nurses who decided not to report to work, the majority were willing to provide health information (90%), administer vaccinations (82%), and triage (74%) neighbors/friends from home. One third of nurses had not attended a disaster-preparedness drill within the past year. Only 20% identified formal training while on the job as a source of avian influenza information. A third of emergency nurses would be worried about getting an avian influenza vaccination because of potential adverse effects. Protection Motivation Theory accounted for almost 40% of the variance of likelihood to report to work, with response costs being the largest predictor. DISCUSSION: Disaster drills, avian influenza job training, and vaccination education are necessary to prepare emergency nurses for an outbreak. The findings support emergency nurses' willingness to work from home if they are unable to report to work. This finding is new and may have implications for disaster planning, staffing, and ED operations.

Planetary Protection Knowledge Gap Closure Enabling Crewed Missions to Mars.

As focus for exploration of Mars transitions from current robotic explorers to development of crewed missions, it remains important to protect the integrity of scientific investigations at Mars, as well as protect the Earth's biosphere from any potential harmful effects from returned martian material. This is the discipline of planetary protection, and the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) maintains the consensus international policy and guidelines on how this is implemented. Based on National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA) studies that began in 2001, COSPAR adopted principles and guidelines for human missions to Mars in 2008. At that point, it was clear that to move from those qualitative provisions, a great deal of work and interaction with spacecraft designers would be necessary to generate meaningful quantitative recommendations that could embody the intent of the Outer Space Treaty (Article IX) in the design of such missions. Beginning in 2016, COSPAR then sponsored a multiyear interdisciplinary meeting series to address planetary protection "knowledge gaps" (KGs) with the intent of adapting and extending the current robotic mission-focused Planetary Protection Policy to support the design and implementation of crewed and hybrid exploration missions. This article describes the outcome of the interdisciplinary COSPAR meeting series, to describe and address these KGs, as well as identify potential paths to gap closure. It includes the background scientific basis for each topic area and knowledge updates since the meeting series ended. In particular, credible solutions for KG closure are described for the three topic areas of (1) microbial monitoring of spacecraft and crew health; (2) natural transport (and survival) of terrestrial microbial contamination at Mars, and (3) the technology and operation of spacecraft systems for contamination control. The article includes a KG data table on these topic areas, which is intended to be a point of departure for making future progress in developing an end-to-end planetary protection requirements implementation solution for a crewed mission to Mars. Overall, the workshop series has provided evidence of the feasibility of planetary protection implementation for a crewed Mars mission, given (1) the establishment of needed zoning, emission, transport, and survival parameters for terrestrial biological contamination and (2) the creation of an accepted risk-based compliance approach for adoption by spacefaring actors including national space agencies and commercial/nongovernment organizations.

Racial differences in the relationship between tobacco, alcohol, and squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.

PURPOSE: Tobacco and alcohol use are well-known risk factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN), but there has been little examination of disparities in SCCHN and racial patterns of tobacco and alcohol use, especially for African-Americans. The Carolina Head and Neck Cancer Study, a population-based case-control study, was utilized to determine whether relationships between tobacco and alcohol use and SCCHN differed by race. METHODS: Using a rapid case ascertainment system, cases were recruited from 46 contiguous counties in North Carolina from 2002 to 2006. Controls, selected from motor vehicle records, were frequency-matched to cases on age, sex, and race. This analysis was based on 989 white and 351 African-American cases and 1,114 white and 264 African-American controls. Analyses were performed using unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, race, education, and fruit and vegetable consumption. RESULTS: The association between SCCHN and ever tobacco use among African-Americans (odds ratio (OR), 9.68; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 4.70, 19.9) was much greater than that observed in whites (OR, 1.94; 95 % CI, 1.51, 2.50). Smaller differences were observed when examining ever alcohol use (African-Americans: OR, 3.71; CI, 1.65, 8.30, and Whites: OR, 1.31: CI 0.96, 1.78). African-Americans consistently had greater effect measure estimates when examining common levels of duration and intensity metrics of tobacco and alcohol use, both independently and jointly. No racial differences in the effects of environmental (passive) tobacco smoke were observed. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest racial differences in SCCHN are not solely explained by differences in consumption patterns, and tobacco and alcohol may have greater impact in African-Americans.

A systematic literature review of strategies promoting early referral and reducing delays in the diagnosis and management of inflammatory arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of timely management of patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA), delays exist in its diagnosis and treatment. OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic literature review to identify strategies addressing these delays to inform an American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) taskforce. METHODS: The authors searched literature published between January 1985 and November 2010, and ACR and EULAR abstracts between 2007-2010. Additional information was obtained through a grey literature search, a survey conducted through ACR and EULAR, and a hand search of the literature. RESULTS: (1) From symptom onset to primary care, community case-finding strategies, including the use of a questionnaire and autoantibody testing, have been designed to identify patients with early IA. Several websites provided information on IA but were of varying quality and insufficient to aid early referral. (2) At a primary care level, education programmes and patient self-administered questionnaires identified patients with potential IA for referral to rheumatology. Many guidelines emphasised the need for early referral with one providing specific referral criteria. (3) Once referred, early arthritis clinics provided a point of early access for rheumatology assessment. Triage systems, including triage clinics, helped prioritise clinic appointments for patients with IA. Use of referral forms standardised information required, further optimising the triage process. Wait times for patients with acute IA were also reduced with development of rapid access systems. CONCLUSIONS: This review identified three main areas of delay to care for patients with IA and potential solutions for each. A co-ordinated effort will be required by the rheumatology and primary care community to address these effectively.

A parallel group cohort to determine the measurement properties of an early inflammatory arthritis detection tool.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the comprehensibility, internal consistency, test-retest reliability and discriminative properties of an early inflammatory arthritis (IA) detection tool. METHODS: Four groups were recruited from outpatient clinics at two tertiary care hospitals: early IA, established IA, non-IA musculoskeletal conditions (MSK) and non-MSK. Participants attended a study visit where they completed the 11-item tool with binary yes/no response options. Comprehensibility was assessed for each tool item on a 5-point Likert scale. For test-retest assessment, the tool was mailed to participants following a 2-week recall washout interval. Two items were randomly selected to test internal consistency. Discriminative properties compared tool item responses with blinded rheumatologist clinical assessments. A previously developed rheumatology triage algorithm was externally validated. RESULTS: A total of 170 participants were enrolled in the study. Comprehensibility approached unity for all tool items. The internal consistency Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 was 0.985 (P < 0.0001). The mean test-retest reliability kappa (S.D.) was 0.81 (0.02). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) (95% CI) for summed yes responses between test and retest phases was 0.94 (0.93, 0.95) and for algorithm scores was 0.97 (0.96, 0.98). Patient responses were significantly associated with the corresponding clinical evaluations (P < 0.0001, respectively). The sum of yes responses and rheumatology triage algorithm scores both differentiated early IA from each of the other three groups (P < 0.004, respectively). The scoring algorithm receiver operating characteristic plot area under the curve (S.E.) was 0.829 (0.003). CONCLUSION: The tool has favourable measurement and discriminative properties. The discriminative properties of the rheumatology triage scoring algorithm were externally validated.

Positioning continuing education: boundaries and intersections between the domains continuing education, knowledge translation, patient safety and quality improvement.

Public and professional concern about health care quality, safety and efficiency is growing. Continuing education, knowledge translation, patient safety and quality improvement have made concerted efforts to address these issues. However, a coordinated and integrated effort across these domains is lacking. This article explores and discusses the similarities and differences amongst the four domains in relation to their missions, stakeholders, methods, and limitations. This paper highlights the potential for a more integrated and collaborative partnership to promote networking and information sharing amongst the four domains. This potential rests on the premise that an integrated approach may result in the development and implementation of more holistic and effective interdisciplinary interventions. In conclusion, an outline of current research that is informed by the preliminary findings in this paper is also briefly discussed. The research concerns a comprehensive mapping of the relationships between the domains to gain an understanding of potential dissonances between how the domains represent themselves, their work and the work of their 'partner' domains.

A systematic literature review of strategies promoting early referral and reducing delays in the diagnosis and management of inflammatory arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of timely management of patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA), delays exist in its diagnosis and treatment. OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic literature review to identify strategies addressing these delays to inform an American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) taskforce. METHODS: The authors searched literature published between January 1985 and November 2010, and ACR and EULAR abstracts between 2007-2010. Additional information was obtained through a grey literature search, a survey conducted through ACR and EULAR, and a hand search of the literature. RESULTS: (1) From symptom onset to primary care, community case-finding strategies, including the use of a questionnaire and autoantibody testing, have been designed to identify patients with early IA. Several websites provided information on IA but were of varying quality and insufficient to aid early referral. (2) At a primary care level, education programmes and patient self-administered questionnaires identified patients with potential IA for referral to rheumatology. Many guidelines emphasised the need for early referral with one providing specific referral criteria. (3) Once referred, early arthritis clinics provided a point of early access for rheumatology assessment. Triage systems, including triage clinics, helped prioritise clinic appointments for patients with IA. Use of referral forms standardised information required, further optimising the triage process. Wait times for patients with acute IA were also reduced with development of rapid access systems. CONCLUSIONS: This review identified three main areas of delay to care for patients with IA and potential solutions for each. A co-ordinated effort will be required by the rheumatology and primary care community to address these effectively.

The Struggle Between Protecting Children From and Preparing Them for the Death of Their Parent: A Qualitative Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to gain a greater understanding of communicating with children about parental terminal illness from the perspective of the surviving parents. METHODS: A qualitative descriptive study was conducted using semi structured interviews with eligible participants. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: The results highlight the pressures experienced by surviving parents, grappling with trying to support their children's needs on a practical and emotional level, while coping with the emotional upheaval of the impending death of their partner. The issue of communication with the children starts long before the terminal phase of illness and the results confirm that this is an ongoing process that continues after the death of the parent. The need for services to be more responsive to the diverse needs of families was also apparent as a key factor in supporting families during this time. CONCLUSIONS: This research provides valuable insights into the complexity of communicating with children about terminal illness from the perspective of the surviving parents. It reveals diverse views and experiences in terms of approaching communication with children and illustrates the need for services to be acutely attuned to the unique needs of parents and children throughout the disease trajectory.

A machine learning model for predicting congenital heart defects from administrative data.

INTRODUCTION: International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes recorded in administrative data are often used to identify congenital heart defects (CHD). However, these codes may inaccurately identify true positive (TP) CHD individuals. CHD surveillance could be strengthened by accurate CHD identification in administrative records using machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: To identify features relevant to accurate CHD identification, traditional ML models were applied to a validated dataset of 779 patients; encounter level data, including ICD-9-CM and CPT codes, from 2011 to 2013 at four US sites were utilized. Five-fold cross-validation determined overlapping important features that best predicted TP CHD individuals. Median values and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of area under the receiver operating curve, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score were compared across four ML models: Logistic Regression, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). RESULTS: Baseline PPV was 76.5% from expert clinician validation of ICD-9-CM CHD-related codes. Feature selection for ML decreased 7138 features to 10 that best predicted TP CHD cases. During training and testing, XGBoost performed the best in median accuracy (F1-score) and PPV, 0.84 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.91) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.96), respectively. When applied to the entire dataset, XGBoost revealed a median PPV of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Applying ML algorithms improved the accuracy of identifying TP CHD cases in comparison to ICD codes alone. Use of this technique to identify CHD cases would improve generalizability of results obtained from large datasets to the CHD patient population, enhancing public health surveillance efforts.