Low methylation marker levels among human papillomavirus-vaccinated women with cervical high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions.

Cervical cancer screening programs, including triage tests, need redesigning as human papillomavirus (HPV)-vaccinated women are entering the programs. Methylation markers offer a potential solution to reduce false-positive rates by identifying clinically relevant cervical lesions with progressive potential. In a nested case-control study, 9242 women who received the three-dose HPV16/18-vaccine at ages 12-15 or 18 in a community-randomized trial were included. Subsequently, they were re-randomized for either frequent or infrequent cervical cancer screening trials. Over a 15-year post-vaccination follow-up until 2022, 17 high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and 15 low-grade (LSIL) cases were identified at the 25-year screening round, alongside 371 age and community-matched HPV16/18-vaccinated controls. Methylation analyses were performed on cervical samples collected at age 25, preceding histologically confirmed LSIL or HSIL diagnoses. DNA methylation of viral (HPV16/18/31/33) and host-cell genes (EPB41L3, FAM19A4, and miR124-2) was measured, along with HPV-genotyping. No HPV16/18 HSIL cases were observed. The predominant HPV-genotypes were HPV52 (29.4%), HPV59/HPV51/HPV58 (each 23.5%), and HPV33 (17.7%). Methylation levels were generally low, with no significant differences in mean methylation levels of viral or host-cell genes between the LSIL/HSIL and controls. However, a significant difference in methylation levels was found between HSIL cases and controls when considering a combination of viral genes and EPB41L3 (p value = .0001). HPV-vaccinated women with HSIL had HPV infections with uncommon HPV types that very rarely cause cancer and displayed low methylation levels. Further investigation is warranted to understand the likely regressive nature of HSIL among HPV-vaccinated women and its implications for management.

DNA Methylation and P53 Immunohistochemistry as Prognostic Biomarkers for Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus.

Vulvar lichen sclerosus (LS) is an inflammatory dermatosis which can progress to human papillomavirus (HPV-)independent vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (HPVi VIN) and vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC). Although LS has a much lower cancer risk compared to HPVi VIN (5% versus 50%, respectively), its incidence is significantly higher. Therefore, there is a clinical need to identify LS patients with an increased cancer risk. Our objective was to study the value of DNA methylation and p53 immunohistochemistry (IHC) as prognostic biomarkers for progression to cancer in patients with LS. Vulvar tissues from 236 patients were selected, including 75 LS and 68 HPVi VIN, both with and without cancer development, 32 VSCC and 61 healthy vulvar controls. Samples were subjected to p53 IHC and DNA methylation analysis of a three-gene marker panel containing ZNF582, SST and miR124-2. Methylation levels and p53 IHC status (mutant or wild-type) were assessed and compared among all disease categories. Odds ratios (ORs) were determined to identify whether the biomarkers were associated with progression to cancer in patients with LS. Highest methylation levels were found in HPVi VIN and VSCC, followed by LS and healthy vulvar controls. The largest heterogeneity in methylation levels was observed in LS cases. In fact, the three-marker panel tested positive in 70% of LS which progressed to VSCC versus only 17% of LS in patients without cancer development (p=0.002). Also, mutant p53 IHC was observed more frequently in LS with progression to VSCC as compared to non-progressive LS cases (42% versus 3%, respectively, p=0.001). Multivariable analysis identified a mutant p53 status as the only independent risk factor for cancer development in LS (OR 34.0, 95% CI: 1.4 - 807.4). In conclusion, DNA methylation testing and p53 IHC show strong potential as prognostic biomarkers for the identification of LS patients at high risk of progression to cancer.

High-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia: comprehensive characterization and long-term vulvar carcinoma risk.

AIMS: Adequate diagnosis of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and HPV-independent vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) is essential but can be challenging. We comprehensively characterized a large population-based series of vulvar lesions, originally reported as high-grade VIN, and assessed the cancer risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Baseline high-grade VIN of 751 patients were categorized by histopathological reassessment, integrating the results of immunohistochemistry (p16INK4a , p53, Ki-67) and HPV DNA testing. Integrated analyses resulted in 88.4% HPV-associated lesions (77.0% HSIL, 10.9% low-grade SIL [LSIL], and 0.4% vulvar squamous cell carcinoma [VSCC]), 10.9% HPV-independent lesions (6.1% HPV-independent VIN, 4.7% nondysplastic lesions, and 0.1% VSCC) and 1.1% inconclusive lesions. HSIL demonstrated p16INK4a block-positivity in 99.0%, increased Ki-67 in ≥2/3rd of the epithelium in 93.6%, and HPV positivity in 99.6%. In HSIL, a p53 wildtype mid-epithelial staining pattern was common (51.6%) while this was not observed in HPV-independent lesions. HPV-independent VIN harboured mutant p53 patterns in 65.2% and showed a wide morphological spectrum, ranging from differentiated to nondifferentiated ('HPV-associated-like', in 41.3%). Kaplan-Meier analyses showed a 10-year cancer risk of 8.0% in HPV-associated HSIL, 67.4% in HPV-independent VIN/p53mutant, and 27.8% in HPV-independent VIN/p53wildtype. Strikingly, the 10-year cancer risk was 73.3% in HPV-independent VIN with nondifferentiated ('HPV-associated-like') morphology. CONCLUSION: Immunohistochemistry by p16INK4a and p53 is highly recommended for optimal categorization into HPV-associated and HPV-independent VIN, which is of utmost importance given the different cancer risk. The high cancer risk of HPV-independent VIN underscores the need for surgical treatment and close follow-up, especially in case of a p53 mutant pattern and/or nondifferentiated morphology.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Recurrence and Progression of HPV-Independent Vulvar Intraepithelial Neoplasia.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-independent vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) is a rare yet aggressive precursor lesion of vulvar cancer. Our objectives were to estimate its long-term incidence, the risk of recurrent disease and progression to vulvar cancer, and risk factors thereof. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with HPV-independent VIN between 1991 and 2019 in a selected region were identified from the Dutch Nationwide Pathology Databank (Palga). Data were collected from the pathology reports. Crude and European age-standardized incidence rates were calculated for 10-year periods. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed to determine the cumulative recurrence and cancer incidence, followed by Cox regression analyses to identify associated risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients were diagnosed with solitary HPV-independent VIN without prior or concurrent vulvar cancer. The European age-standardized incidence rate increased from 0.09 to 0.69 per 100,000 women-years between 1991-2010 and 2011-2019. A cumulative recurrence and cancer incidence of 29% and 46% were found after 8 and 13 years of follow-up, respectively. Nonradical surgery was identified as the only independent risk factor for recurrent HPV-independent VIN. Risk factors associated with progression to cancer were increasing age and a mutant p53 immunohistochemical staining pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of detected HPV-independent VIN has substantially increased the last decade and the subsequent recurrence and vulvar cancer risks are high. Although HPV-independent VIN may present as a wide morphologic spectrum, surgical treatment should aim for negative resection margins followed by close surveillance, especially for p53 mutant lesions.

Clinical validation of methylation biomarkers for optimal detection of high-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia.

The precursor lesions of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) include human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated and HPV-independent squamous neoplasia with a varying cancer risk. Our study aimed to validate the accuracy of previously identified DNA methylation markers for detection of such high-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN). A large clinical series of 751 vulvar lesions, originally diagnosed as high-grade VIN, were reassessed and categorized into HPV-associated or HPV-independent vulvar disease categories. Together with 113 healthy vulvar controls, all samples were tested for 12 methylation markers with quantitative multiplex methylation-specific PCR (qMSP). Performance of individual markers and selection of an optimal marker panel for detection of high-grade VIN was determined by logistic regression analysis. SST was the best-performing individual marker (AUC 0.90), detecting 80% of high-grade VIN cases, with excellent detection of HPV-independent VIN (95%), known to have the highest cancer risk. Merely 2% of controls tested methylation positive for SST. Selection of a marker panel, including ZNF582, SST and miR124-2, resulted in a comparably high accuracy for detection of high-grade VIN (AUC 0.89). In conclusion, we clinically validated the accuracy of 12 DNA methylation markers for detection of high-grade VIN. SST, as a sole marker or in a panel, provides an optimal diagnostic tool to distinguish high-grade VIN in need of treatment, particularly HPV-independent VIN, from low-grade or reactive vulvar lesions. These findings warrant further prognostic validation of methylation biomarkers for cancer risk stratification of patients with VIN.

Methylation testing for the detection of recurrent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

Women treated for CIN2/3 remain at increased risk of recurrent CIN and cervical cancer, and therefore posttreatment surveillance is recommended. This post hoc analysis evaluates the potential of methylation markers ASCL1/LHX8 and FAM19A4/miR124-2 for posttreatment detection of recurrent CIN2/3. Cervical scrapes taken at 6 and 12 months posttreatment of 364 women treated for CIN2/3 were tested for methylation of ASCL1/LHX8 and FAM19A4/miR124-2 using quantitative multiplex methylation-specific PCR. Performance of the methylation tests were calculated and compared with the performance of HPV and/or cytology. Methylation levels of recurrent CIN were compared between women with a persistent HPV infection, and women with an incident HPV infection or without HPV infection. Recurrent CIN2/3 was detected in 42 women (11.5%), including 28 women with CIN2 and 14 with CIN3. ASCL1/LHX8 tested positive in 13/14 (92.9%) of recurrent CIN3 and 13/27 (48.1%) of recurrent CIN2. FAM19A4/miR124-2 tested positive in 14/14 (100%) of recurrent CIN3 and 10/27 (37.0%) of recurrent CIN2. Combined HPV and/or methylation testing showed similar positivity rates as HPV and/or cytology. The CIN2/3 risk at 12 months posttreatment was 30.8% after a positive ASCL1/LHX8 result at 6 months posttreatment. Methylation levels of CIN2/3 in women with a persistent HPV infection were significantly higher compared with women with an incident or no HPV infection. In conclusion, posttreatment monitoring by methylation analysis of ASCL1/LHX8 and FAM19A4/miR124-2 showed a good performance for the detection of recurrent CIN. DNA methylation testing can help to identify women with recurrent CIN that require re-treatment.

Evaluation of DNA methylation biomarkers ASCL1 and LHX8 on HPV-positive self-collected samples from primary HPV-based screening.

BACKGROUND: Host-cell DNA methylation analysis can be used to triage women with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive self-collected cervicovaginal samples, but current data are restricted to under-/never-screened women and referral populations. This study evaluated triage performance in women who were offered primary HPV self-sampling for cervical cancer screening. METHODS: Self-collected samples from 593 HPV-positive women who participated in a primary HPV self-sampling trial (IMPROVE study; NTR5078), were tested for the DNA methylation markers ASCL1 and LHX8 using quantitative multiplex methylation-specific PCR (qMSP). The diagnostic performance for CIN3 and cervical cancer (CIN3 + ) was evaluated and compared with that of paired HPV-positive clinician-collected cervical samples. RESULTS: Significantly higher methylation levels were found in HPV-positive self-collected samples of women with CIN3 + than control women with no evidence of disease (P values <0.0001). The marker panel ASCL1/LHX8 yielded a sensitivity for CIN3 + detection of 73.3% (63/86; 95% CI 63.9-82.6%), with a corresponding specificity of 61.1% (310/507; 95% CI 56.9-65.4%). The relative sensitivity for detecting CIN3+ was 0.95 (95% CI 0.82-1.10) for self-collection versus clinician-collection, and the relative specificity was 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: The ASCL1/LHX8 methylation marker panel constitutes a feasible direct triage method for the detection of CIN3 + in HPV-positive women participating in routine screening by self-sampling.

Core protocol development for phase 2/3 clinical trials in the leukodystrophy vanishing white matter: a consensus statement by the VWM consortium and patient advocates.

BACKGROUND: The leukodystrophy "Vanishing White Matter" (VWM) is an orphan disease with neurological decline and high mortality. Currently, VWM has no approved treatments, but advances in understanding pathophysiology have led to identification of promising therapies. Several investigational medicinal products are either in or about to enter clinical trial phase. Clinical trials in VWM pose serious challenges, as VWM has an episodic disease course; disease phenotype is highly heterogeneous and predictable only for early onset; and study power is limited by the small patient numbers. To address these challenges and accelerate therapy delivery, the VWM Consortium, a group of academic clinicians with expertise in VWM, decided to develop a core protocol to function as a template for trials, to improve trial design and facilitate sharing of control data, while permitting flexibility regarding other trial details. Overall aims of the core protocol are to collect safety, tolerability, and efficacy data for treatment assessment and marketing authorization. METHODS: To develop the core protocol, the VWM Consortium designated a committee, including clinician members of the VWM Consortium, family and patient group advocates, and experts in statistics, clinical trial design and alliancing with industries. We drafted three age-specific protocols, to stratify into more homogeneous patient groups, of ages ≥ 18 years, ≥ 6 to < 18 years and < 6 years. We chose double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled design for patients aged ≥ 6 years; and open-label non-randomized natural-history-controlled design for patients < 6 years. The protocol describes study populations, age-specific endpoints, inclusion and exclusion criteria, study schedules, sample size determinations, and statistical considerations. DISCUSSION: The core protocol provides a shared uniformity across trials, enables a pool of shared controls, and reduces the total number of patients necessary per trial, limiting the number of patients on placebo. All VWM clinical trials are suggested to adhere to the core protocol. Other trial components such as choice of primary outcome, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and biomarkers are flexible and unconstrained by the core protocol. Each sponsor is responsible for their trial execution, while the control data are handled by a shared research organization. This core protocol benefits the efficiency of parallel and consecutive trials in VWM, and we hope accelerates time to availability of treatments for VWM. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NA. From a scientific and ethical perspective, it is strongly recommended that all interventional trials using this core protocol are registered in a clinical trial register.

Vaccine Effectiveness Following Routine Immunization With Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine: Protection Against Incident Genital HPV Infections From a Reduced-Dosing Schedule.

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been offered to preadolescent girls via the National Immunization Program in a 2-dose schedule since 2014. The current study estimates vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HPV infections up to 4 years postvaccination among girls eligible for routine 2-dose immunization. METHODS: A cohort study (HAVANA2) was used in which participants annually filled out an online questionnaire and provided a vaginal self-sample for determination of HPV by the SPF10-LiPA25 assay, able to detect 25 HPV types. VE against incident type-specific infections and pooled outcomes was estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model with shared frailty between the HPV types. RESULTS: In total, 2027 girls were included in the study, 1098 (54.2%) of whom were vaccinated with 2 doses. Highest incidence rate was 5.0/1000 person-years (HPV-51) among vaccinated participants and 9.1/1000 person-years (HPV-74) among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted pooled VE was 84.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.0%-96.5%) against incident HPV-16/18 infections and 86.5% (95% CI, 39.5%-97.08%) against cross-protective types HPV-31/33/45. CONCLUSIONS: Four years postvaccination, 2 doses of bivalent HPV vaccine were effective in the prevention of incident HPV-16/18 infections and provided cross-protection to HPV-31/33/45. Our VE estimates rival those from 3-dose schedules, indicating comparable protection by 2-dose schedules.

Accuracy and effectiveness of HPV mRNA testing in cervical cancer screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening tests that identify DNA of the main causal agent, high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, are more protective than cervical cytology. We systematically reviewed the literature to assess whether tests targeting high-risk HPV (hrHPV) mRNA are as accurate and effective as HPV DNA-based screening tests. METHODS: We did a systematic review to assess the cross-sectional clinical accuracy to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) or 3 or worse (CIN3+) of hrHPV mRNA versus DNA testing in primary cervical cancer screening; the longitudinal clinical performance of cervical cancer screening using hrHPV mRNA versus DNA assays; and the clinical accuracy of hrHPV mRNA testing on self-collected versus clinician-collected samples. We identified relevant studies published before Aug 1, 2021, through a search of Medline (PubMed), Embase, and CENTRAL. Eligible studies had to contain comparative data addressing one of our three clinical questions. Aggregated data were extracted from selected reports or requested from study authors if necessary. QUADAS and ROBINS-1 tools were used to assess the quality of diagnostic test accuracy studies and cohort studies. To assess cross-sectional clinical accuracy of mRNA testing versus DNA testing and clinical accuracy of hrHPV mRNA testing on self-collected versus clinician collected samples, we applied meta-analytical methods for comparison of diagnostic tests. To assess the longitudinal clinical performance of cervical cancer screening using hrHPV mRNA versus DNA assays, we compared the longitudinal sensitivity of mRNA tests and validated DNA tests for CIN3+ and the relative detection of CIN3+ among women who screened negative for hrHPV mRNA or DNA (both used as measures of safety) at baseline and pooled estimates by years of follow-up. A random-effect model for pooling ratios of proportions or risks was used to summarise longitudinal performance. FINDINGS: For the hrHPV mRNA testing with APTIMA HPV Test (APTIMA), the cross-sectional accuracy could be compared with DNA assays on clinician-collected samples in eight studies; longitudinal performance was compared in four studies; and accuracy on self-samples was assessed in five studies. Few reports were retrieved for other mRNA assays, precluding their evaluation in meta-analyses. Compared with validated DNA assays, APTIMA was similarly sensitive (relative sensitivity 0·98 [95% CI 0·95-1·01]) and slightly more specific (1·03 [1·02-1·04]) for CIN2+. The relative sensitivity for CIN3+ was 0·98 (95% CI 0·95-1·01). The longitudinal relative sensitivity for CIN3+ of APTIMA compared with DNA assays assessed over 4-7 years ranged at the study level from 0·91 to 1·05 and in the pooled analysis between 0·95 and 0·98, depending on timepoint, with CIs including or close to unity. The detection rate ratios between 4 and 10 years after baseline negative mRNA versus negative DNA screening were imprecise and heterogeneous among studies, but summary ratios did not differ from unity. In self-collected samples, APTIMA was less sensitive for CIN2+ (relative cross-sectional sensitivity 0·84 [0·74-0·96]) but similarly specific (relative specificity 0·96 [0·91-1·01]) compared with clinician-collected samples. INTERPRETATION: HrHPV RNA testing with APTIMA had similar cross-sectional sensitivity for CIN2+ and CIN3+ and slightly higher specificity than DNA tests. Four studies with 4-7 years of follow-up showed heterogeneous safety outcomes. One study with up to 10 years of follow-up showed no differences in cumulative detection of CIN3+ after negative mRNA versus DNA screening. APTIMA could be accepted for primary cervical cancer screening on clinician-collected cervical samples at intervals of around 5 years. APTIMA is less sensitive on self-collected samples than clinician-collected samples. FUNDING: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation of the European Commission, through the RISCC Network, WHO, Haute Autorité de la Santé, European Society of Gynaecological Oncology, and the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment.

Evidence-based impact projections of single-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in India: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule. METHODS: In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born. FINDINGS: Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Performance of DNA methylation analysis of ASCL1, LHX8, ST6GALNAC5, GHSR, ZIC1 and SST for the triage of HPV-positive women: Results from a Dutch primary HPV-based screening cohort.

Methylation of host-cell deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) has been proposed as a promising biomarker for triage of high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) positive women at screening. Our study aims to validate recently identified host-cell DNA methylation markers for triage in an hrHPV-positive cohort derived from primary HPV-based cervical screening in The Netherlands. Methylation markers ASCL1, LHX8, ST6GALNAC5, GHSR, ZIC1 and SST were evaluated relative to the ACTB reference gene by multiplex quantitative methylation-specific PCR (qMSP) in clinician-collected cervical samples (n = 715) from hrHPV-positive women (age 29-60 years), who were enrolled in the Dutch IMPROVE screening trial (NTR5078). Primary clinical end-point was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) or cancer (CIN3+). The single-marker and bi-marker methylation classifiers developed for CIN3 detection in a previous series of hrHPV-positive clinician-collected cervical samples were applied. The diagnostic accuracy was visualised using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and assessed through area under the ROC curve (AUC). The performance of the methylation markers to detect CIN3+ was determined using the predefined threshold calibrated at 70% clinical specificity. Individual methylation makers showed good performance for CIN3+ detection, with highest AUC for ASCL1 (0.844) and LHX8 (0.830). Combined as a bi-marker panel with predefined threshold, ASCL1/LHX8 yielded a CIN3+ sensitivity of 76.9% (70/91; 95% CI 68.3-85.6%) at a specificity of 74.5% (465/624; 95% CI 71.1-77.9%). In conclusion, our study shows that the individual host-cell DNA methylation classifiers and the bi-marker panel ASCL1/LHX8 have clinical utility for the detection of CIN3+ in hrHPV-positive women invited for routine screening.

Risk of cervical precancer among HPV-negative women in the Netherlands and its association with previous HPV and cytology results: A follow-up analysis of a randomized screening study.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening programs still use one-size-fits-all protocols but efficiency and efficacy of programs may be improved by stratifying women based on previous screening results. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied the association between cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) and previous screening results in the Population-Based Screening Study Amsterdam (POBASCAM) trial, performed in the Netherlands in the setting of regular screening, where women aged from 29 to 61 years old were invited to cytology and HPV co-testing at enrolment in year 1999/2002 and at the next round in 2003/2007. We selected 18,448 women (9,293 from the intervention group and 9,155 from the control group) who tested HPV-negative in 2003/2007 and did not have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) or hysterectomy after enrolment. Follow-up was collected until 14 years after the 2003/2007 screen, covering 4 rounds of screening. Risk of CIN3+ and CIN2+ among women with an HPV-negative test, irrespective of previous round results and stratified according to previous round HPV and cytology results, were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. During 14 years of follow-up, 62 CIN3+ cases (24 in the intervention group and 38 in the control group) were detected. HPV-negative women had a 14-year CIN3+ risk of 0.48% (95% confidence interval 0.37 to 0.62) and CIN2+ risk of 1.17% (0.99 to 1.38). The CIN3+ risk among HPV-negative women was increased in women with a previous positive HPV test (2.36%, 1.20 to 4.63; p < 0.001) or co-test (1.68%, 0.87 to 3.20; p < 0.001) and, equivalently, decreased in women with a previous negative HPV test (0.43%, 0.33 to 0.57) or a negative co-test (0.43%, 0.33 to 0.57). The CIN3+ risk was not influenced by the previous cytology result. The CIN3+ risk among HPV-negative women was increased after both a previous HPV16-positive test (3.90%, 1.47 to 10.12; p < 0.001) and a previous HPV16-negative/HPVother-positive test (1.91%, 0.76 to 4.74; p = 0.002). For endpoint CIN2+ (147 cases), findings were similar except that the CIN2+ risk was increased after previous abnormal cytology (4.06%, 2.30 to 7.12; p < 0.001). The presented risk estimates were calculated by tracking histological results through the Dutch nationwide pathology archive (PALGA) and were not adjusted for non-compliance with the colposcopy referral advice. CONCLUSIONS: HPV-negative women had an increased long-term risk of CIN3+ when the HPV test in the previous screening round was positive. This supports the implementation of risk-based intervals that depend on HPV results in the current and previous screening round. TRIAL REGISTRATION: POBASCAM trial, trial registration number ISRCTN20781131.

Risk-stratification of HPV-positive women with low-grade cytology by FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation and HPV genotyping.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of primary HPV screening has doubled the number of colposcopy referrals because of the direct referral of HPV-positive women with a borderline or mild dyskaryosis (BMD) cytology (ASC-US/LSIL) triage test. Further risk-stratification is warranted to improve the efficiency of HPV-based screening. METHODS: This study evaluated the discriminative power of FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation, HPV16/18 genotyping and HPV16/18/31/33/45 genotyping in HPV-positive women with BMD (n = 294) in two Dutch screening trials. Absolute CIN3+ risks and colposcopy referrals within one screening round were calculated. RESULTS: Methylation analysis discriminated well, yielding a CIN3+ risk of 33.1% after a positive result and a CIN3+ risk of 9.8% after a negative result. HPV16/18 and HPV16/18/31/33/45 genotyping resulted in a 27.6% and 24.6% CIN3+ risk after a positive result, and a 13.2% and 9.1% CIN3+ risk after a negative result. Colposcopy referral percentages were 41.2%, 43.2%, and 66.3% for FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation, HPV16/18 and HPV16/18/31/33/45 genotyping, respectively. The CIN3+ risk after a negative result could be lowered to 2.8% by combining methylation and extended genotyping, at the expense of a higher referral percentage of 75.5%. CONCLUSION: The use of FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation and/or HPV genotyping in HPV-positive women with BMD can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of direct colposcopy referrals.

Alternative Randomized Trial Designs in Surgery: A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) yield the highest level of evidence but are notoriously difficult to perform in surgery. Surgical RCTs may be hampered by slow accrual, the surgical learning curve, and lack of financial support. Alternative RCT designs such as stepped-wedge randomized controlled trials (SW-RCTs), registry-based randomized controlled trials (RB-RCTs), and trials-within-cohorts (TwiCs) may overcome several of these difficulties. This review provides an overview of alternative RCT designs used in surgical research. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central for surgical SW-RCTs, RB-RCTs, and TwiCs. A surgical RCT was defined as a randomized trial that studied interventions in patients undergoing general surgery, regardless of the affiliation of the corresponding author. Exponential regression analysis was performed to assess time trends. RESULTS: Overall, 41 surgical RCTs using alternative designs were identified, including 17 published final RCT reports and 24 published protocols of ongoing RCTs. These included 25 SW-RCTs (61%), 13 RB-RCTs (32%), and 3 TwiCs (7%). Most of these RCTs were performed in Europe (63%) and within gastrointestinal/oncological surgery (41%). The total number of RCTs using alternative designs exponentially increased over the last 7 years ( P <0.01), with 95% (n=39/41) of the total number published within this time frame. The most reported reasons for using alternative RCT designs were avoidance of contamination for SW-RCTs and generalizability of the trial population for RB-RCTs and TwiCs. CONCLUSIONS: Alternative RCT designs are increasingly used in surgical research, mostly in Europe and within gastrointestinal/oncological surgery. When adequately used, these alternative designs may overcome several difficulties associated with surgical RCTs.

A progressive three-state model to estimate time to cancer: a likelihood-based approach.

BACKGROUND: To optimize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and surveillance, information regarding the time-dependent risk of advanced adenomas (AA) to develop into CRC is crucial. However, since AA are removed after diagnosis, the time from AA to CRC cannot be observed in an ethically acceptable manner. We propose a statistical method to indirectly infer this time in a progressive three-state disease model using surveillance data. METHODS: Sixteen models were specified, with and without covariates. Parameters of the parametric time-to-event distributions from the adenoma-free state (AF) to AA and from AA to CRC were estimated simultaneously, by maximizing the likelihood function. Model performance was assessed via simulation. The methodology was applied to a random sample of 878 individuals from a Norwegian adenoma cohort. RESULTS: Estimates of the parameters of the time distributions are consistent and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) have good coverage. For the Norwegian sample (AF: 78%, AA: 20%, CRC: 2%), a Weibull model for both transition times was selected as the final model based on information criteria. The mean time among those who have made the transition to CRC since AA onset within 50 years was estimated to be 4.80 years (95% CI: 0; 7.61). The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC from AA was 13.8% (95% CI: 7.8%;23.8%) and 15.4% (95% CI: 8.2%;34.0%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The time-dependent risk from AA to CRC is crucial to explain differences in the outcomes of microsimulation models used for the optimization of CRC prevention. Our method allows for improving models by the inclusion of data-driven time distributions.

Description of a European memory clinic cohort undergoing amyloid-PET: The AMYPAD Diagnostic and Patient Management Study.

INTRODUCTION: AMYPAD Diagnostic and Patient Management Study (DPMS) aims to investigate the clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of amyloid-PET in Europe. Here we present participants' baseline features and discuss the representativeness of the cohort. METHODS: Participants with subjective cognitive decline plus (SCD+), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or dementia were recruited in eight European memory clinics from April 16, 2018, to October 30, 2020, and randomized into three arms: ARM1, early amyloid-PET; ARM2, late amyloid-PET; and ARM3, free-choice. RESULTS: A total of 840 participants (244 SCD+, 341 MCI, and 255 dementia) were enrolled. Sociodemographic/clinical features did not differ significantly among recruiting memory clinics or with previously reported cohorts. The randomization assigned 35% of participants to ARM1, 32% to ARM2, and 33% to ARM3; cognitive stages were distributed equally across the arms. DISCUSSION: The features of AMYPAD-DPMS participants are as expected for a memory clinic population. This ensures the generalizability of future study results.

Population Impact of Girls-Only Human Papillomavirus 16/18 Vaccination in The Netherlands: Cross-Protective and Second-Order Herd Effects.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs achieve substantial population-level impact, with effects extending beyond protection of vaccinated individuals. We assessed trends in HPV prevalence up to 8 years postvaccination among men and women in the Netherlands, where bivalent HPV vaccination, targeting HPV types 16/18, has been offered to (pre)adolescent girls since 2009 with moderate vaccination coverage. METHODS: We used data from the PASSYON study, a survey initiated in 2009 (prevaccination) and repeated biennially among 16- to 24-year-old visitors of sexual health centers. We studied genital HPV positivity from 2009 to 2017 among women, heterosexual men, and unvaccinated women using Poisson generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for individual- and population-level confounders. Trends were studied for 25 HPV types detected by the SPF10-LiPA25 platform. RESULTS: A total of 6354 women (64.7% self-reported unvaccinated) and 2414 heterosexual men were included. Percentual declines in vaccine types HPV-16/18 were observed for all women (12.6% per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10.6-14.5]), heterosexual men (13.0% per year [95% CI, 8.3-17.5]), and unvaccinated women (5.4% per year [95% CI, 2.9-7.8]). We observed significant declines in HPV-31 (all women and heterosexual men), HPV-45 (all women), and in all high-risk HPV types pooled (all women and heterosexual men). Significant increases were observed for HPV-56 (all women) and HPV-52 (unvaccinated women). CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence for first-order herd effects among heterosexual men against HPV-16/18 and cross-protective types. Additionally, we show second-order herd effects against vaccine types among unvaccinated women. These results are promising regarding population-level and clinical impact of girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in a country with moderate vaccine uptake.

Vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia: Incidence and long-term risk of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma.

The risk of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) in patients with high-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) is considered lower in high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) compared to differentiated VIN (dVIN), but studies are limited. Our study investigated both the incidence of high-grade VIN and the cumulative incidence of VSCC in patients with HSIL and dVIN separately. A database of women diagnosed with high-grade VIN between 1991 and 2011 was constructed with data from the Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA). The European standardized incidence rate (ESR) and VSCC risk were calculated, stratified for HSIL and dVIN. The effects of type of VIN (HSIL vs dVIN), age and lichen sclerosis (LS) were estimated by Cox regression. In total, 1148 patients were diagnosed with high-grade VIN between 1991 and 2011. Between 1991-1995 and 2006-2011, the ESR of HSIL increased from 2.39 (per 100 000 woman-years) to 3.26 and the ESR of dVIN increased from 0.02 to 0.08. The 10-year cumulative VSCC risk was 10.3%; 9.7% for HSIL and 50.0% for dVIN (log rank P < .001). Type of VIN, age and presence of LS were independent risk factors for progression to VSCC, with hazard ratios of 3.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-7.1), 2.3 (95% CI 1.5-3.4) and 3.1 (95% CI 1.8-5.3), respectively. The incidence of high-grade VIN is rising. Because of the high cancer risk in patients with dVIN, better identification and timely recognition are urgently needed.

Estimating the direct effect of human papillomavirus vaccination on the lifetime risk of screen-detected cervical precancer.

Birth cohorts vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) are now entering cervical cancer screening. Assessment of (pre)cancer (CIN3+) risk is needed to assess the residual screening need in vaccinated women. We estimated the lifetime (screen-detected) CIN3+ risk under five-yearly primary HPV screening between age 30 and 60, using HPV genotyping and histology data of 21,287 women participating in a screening trial with two HPV-based screening rounds, 5 years apart. The maximum follow-up after an HPV-positive test was 9 years. We re-estimated the CIN3+ risk after projecting direct vaccine efficacy for the bivalent and the nonavalent HPV vaccines, assuming life-long protection. The lifetime CIN3+ risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.5-4.9) and declined by 53.5% and 70.5% after bivalent vaccination without and with cross-protection, respectively, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 1.9% (1.4-2.4) and 1.2% (0.9-1.5). The CIN3+ risk declined by 88.5% after nonavalent vaccination, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 0.5% (0.2-0.7). The latter risk increased to 1.6% when vaccine protection only lasted until the first screening round at age 30. Among HPV-positive women with abnormal adjunct cytology, the nine-year CIN3+ risk was 16.9% (8.7-32.4) after nonavalent vaccination. In conclusion, HPV vaccination will lead to a strong decline in the lifetime CIN3+ risk and the remaining absolute CIN3+ risk will be very low. Primary HPV testing combined with adjunct cytology at five-year intervals still seems feasible even after nonavalent vaccination, although unlikely to be cost-effective. Our results support a de-intensification of screening programs in settings with high vaccination coverage.