The Emergence and Progression of Motor Dysfunction in Individuals at Risk of Parkinson's Disease.

BACKGROUND: PREDICT-PD is a United Kingdom population-based study aiming to stratify individuals for future Parkinson's disease (PD) using a risk algorithm. METHODS: A randomly selected, representative sample of participants in PREDICT-PD were examined using several motor assessments, including the motor section of the Movement Disorder Society-Sponsored Revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS)-III, at baseline (2012) and after an average of 6 years of follow-up. We checked for new PD diagnoses in participants seen at baseline and examined the association between risk scores and incident sub-threshold parkinsonism, motor decline (increasing ≥5 points in MDS-UPDRS-III) and single motor domains in the MDS-UPDRS-III. We replicated analyses in two independent datasets (Bruneck and Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative [PPMI]). RESULTS: After 6 years of follow-up, the PREDICT-PD higher-risk group (n = 33) had a greater motor decline compared with the lower-risk group (n = 95) (30% vs. 12.5%, P = 0.031). Two participants (both considered higher risk at baseline) were given a diagnosis of PD during follow-up, with motor signs emerging between 2 and 5 years before diagnosis. A meta-analysis of data from PREDICT-PD, Bruneck, and PPMI showed an association between PD risk estimates and incident sub-threshold parkinsonism (odds ratio [OR], 2.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55-2.61]), as well as new onset bradykinesia (OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.33-2.16]) and action tremor (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.30-1.98]). CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates using the PREDICT-PD algorithm were associated with the occurrence of sub-threshold parkinsonism, including bradykinesia and action tremor. The algorithm could also identify individuals whose motor examination experience a decline over time. © 2023 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Type 2 Diabetes as a Determinant of Parkinson's Disease Risk and Progression.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and Parkinson's disease (PD) are prevalent diseases that affect an aging population. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have explored the relationship between diabetes and the risk of PD, but the results have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate T2DM as a determinant of PD through a meta-analysis of observational and genetic summary data. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies was undertaken by searching 6 databases. We selected the highest-quality studies investigating the association of T2DM with PD risk and progression. We then used Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate the causal effects of genetic liability toward T2DM on PD risk and progression, using summary data derived from genome-wide association studies. RESULTS: In the observational part of the study, pooled effect estimates showed that T2DM was associated with an increased risk of PD (odds ratio [OR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.36), and there was some evidence that T2DM was associated with faster progression of motor symptoms (standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.72) and cognitive decline (SMD -0.92, 95% CI -1.50 to -0.34). Using MR, we found supportive evidence for a causal effect of diabetes on PD risk (inverse-variance weighted method [IVW] OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14; P = 0.010) and some evidence of an effect on motor progression (IVW OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20; P = 0.032) but not on cognitive progression. CONCLUSIONS: Using meta-analyses of traditional observational studies and genetic data, we observed convincing evidence for an effect of T2DM on PD risk and new evidence to support a role in PD progression. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Child-Parent Familial Hypercholesterolemia Screening in Primary Care.

BACKGROUND: Child-parent screening for familial hypercholesterolemia has been proposed to identify persons at high risk for inherited premature cardiovascular disease. We assessed the efficacy and feasibility of such screening in primary care practice. METHODS: We obtained capillary blood samples to measure cholesterol levels and to test for familial hypercholesterolemia mutations in 10,095 children 1 to 2 years of age during routine immunization visits. Children were considered to have positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia if their cholesterol level was elevated and they had either a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation or a repeat elevated cholesterol level 3 months later. A parent of each child with a positive screening result for familial hypercholesterolemia was considered to have a positive screening result for familial hypercholesterolemia if he or she had the same mutation as the child or, if no mutations were identified, had the higher cholesterol level of the two parents. RESULTS: The use of a prespecified cholesterol cutoff value of 1.53 multiples of the median (MoM, corresponding to a percentile of 99.2) identified 28 children who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia (0.3% of the 10,095 children; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.4), including 20 with a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation and 8 with a repeat cholesterol level of at least 1.53 MoM. A total of 17 children who had a cholesterol level of less than 1.53 MoM also had a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation. The overall mutation prevalence was 1 in 273 children (37 in 10,095; 95% CI, 1 in 198 to 1 in 388). The use of an initial cholesterol cutoff value of 1.35 MoM (95th percentile) plus a mutation, or two cholesterol values of at least 1.50 MoM (99th percentile), identified 40 children who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia (0.4% of the 10,095 children, including 32 children who had a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation and 8 who did not have the mutation) and 40 parents who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia. CONCLUSIONS: Child-parent screening was feasible in primary care practices at routine child immunization visits. For every 1000 children screened, 8 persons (4 children and 4 parents) were identified as having positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia and were consequently at high risk for cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the Medical Research Council.).

Prenatal reflex DNA screening for trisomies 21, 18, and 13.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to determine the screening performance of prenatal reflex DNA screening for trisomies 21 (T21), 18 (T18), and 13 (T13) as part of a routine service at five hospitals. METHODS: Women who accepted screening had a first-trimester combined test (pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, free ß-human chorionic gonadotropin, nuchal translucency interpreted with maternal age). Those with a risk of having an affected pregnancy ≥1 in 800 were reflexed to a DNA sequencing test using stored plasma from the original blood sample, thereby avoiding the need to recall them. RESULTS: Of 22,812 women screened (including 106 with affected pregnancies), 2,480 (10.9%) were reflexed to DNA testing; 101/106 were detected (69/73 T21, 24/25 T18, and 8/8 T13), a 95% detection rate (95% confidence interval 89-98%) with four false positives (0.02%, 95% confidence interval 0.00-0.05%). The odds of being affected given a positive result were 25:1. Of the 105 screen-positive pregnancies, 91 (87%) had an invasive diagnostic test. Reflex DNA screening avoided up to 530 invasive diagnostic tests compared with using the combined test. CONCLUSION: Reflex DNA screening was successfully implemented in routine care, achieving a high detection rate, low false-positive rate, and, consequently, greater safety with fewer invasive diagnostic tests than other methods of screening.

Specifying a Gold Standard for the Validation of Fetal Fraction Estimation in Prenatal Screening.

BACKGROUND: An estimate of fetal fraction (FF) is needed for DNA-based screening for trisomy 21 and other aneuploidies, but there is no gold standard to validate FF measurement methods. We specify a gold standard and use it to validate a method of measuring FF (SeqFF) in singleton pregnancies. METHODS: The gold standard was a formula derived from 2 elements: (a) an estimate of the percentage of DNA fragments in maternal plasma from chromosome 21 (%Ch21) in pregnancies without trisomy 21, 18, or 13 (PU) and (b) calculation of %Ch21 with increasing FF in trisomy 21 pregnancies (P21). The SeqFF method was evaluated by plotting regression lines of %Ch21 and SeqFF estimates of FF in 31 singleton male and 31 female trisomy 21 pregnancies and comparing the regressions with the reference line derived from the gold standard formula. RESULTS: The gold standard formula was P21 = (1/2)PUFF + PU, with FF expressed as a proportion, or converting %Ch21 to multiples of the median (MoM), P21(MoM) = (1/2)FF + 1. Based on 3865 pregnancies, the PU was 1.2935%. The regression lines for trisomy 21 pregnancies with male and female fetuses were almost identical to the gold standard reference line (regression slopes in MoMs 0.52 and 0.50, respectively, compared with 0.50 for the gold standard reference line). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed gold standard can be used to validate different methods of estimating FF in singleton pregnancies. SeqFF is an accurate method of estimating FF.

Dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography and transcranial sonography as imaging markers of prediagnostic Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine whether prediagnostic features of Parkinson's disease (PD) were associated with changes in dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography and transcranial sonography. METHODS: Prediagnostic features of PD (risk estimates, University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test, Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire, and finger-tapping scores) were assessed in a large cohort of older U.K. residents. A total of 46 participants were included in analyses of prediagnostic features and MDS-UPDRS scores with the striatal binding ratio on dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography and nigral hyperechogenicity on transcranial sonography. RESULTS: The striatal binding ratio was associated with PD risk estimates (P = .040), University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (P = .002), Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire scores (P = .024), tapping speed (P = .024), and MDS-UPDRS motor scores (P = .009). Remotely collected assessments explained 26% of variation in the striatal binding ratio. The inclusion of MDS-UPDRS motor scores did not explain additional variance. The size of the nigral echogenic area on transcranial sonography was associated with risk estimates (P < .001) and MDS-UPDRS scores (P = .03) only. CONCLUSIONS: The dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography results correlated with motor and nonmotor features of prediagnostic PD, supporting its potential use as a marker in the prodromal phase of PD. Transcranial sonography results also correlated with risk scores and motor signs. © 2018 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies: Estimates of screening performance based on 61 affected and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies.

The aims of this study were to determine whether assumptions used in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies are valid and derive estimates of risk and screening performance in twin pregnancies using observed data. Data were collected on nuchal translucency, chorionicity, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free ß human chorionic gonadotrophin (free ß-hCG) from 61 twin pregnancies with Down syndrome and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies. Distribution parameters were determined and used to estimate screening performance. The assumption that proportional differences in serum marker levels in affected and unaffected singleton pregnancies apply to twin pregnancies was not confirmed. Median free ß-hCG value in monochorionic affected twin pregnancies (2.63 multiples of the median [MoM]; 95% CI, 1.79-3.22 MoM) was lower than that assuming proportionality (3.76 MoM), and the median PAPP-A value in dichorionic affected twin pregnancies (1.88 MoM; 95% CI, 1.60-2.17 MoM) was higher than that based on proportionality (1.33 MoM). The detection rate was 87% for a 3% false-positive rate in monochorionic twin pregnancies and 74% in dichorionic twin pregnancies compared with 86% in singleton pregnancies. Estimates of screening performance in Down syndrome twin pregnancies do not need to rely on assumptions and can take account of chorionicity and gestational age.

Subtle motor disturbances in PREDICT-PD participants.

OBJECTIVE: The PREDICT-PD study aims to identify increased risk of Parkinson''s disease (PD) using online assessments of previously identified risk and early features of PD and an evidence-based scoring algorithm. We sought to determine whether higher risk participants (defined as those above the 15th centile of risk estimates) were more likely to have mild parkinsonian signs compared with lower risk participants. METHODS: Video recordings of neurological examinations, including the Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III, of 208 individuals who had previously completed an online risk assessment were scored blindly and independently by two movement-disorders experts. Higher risk and lower risk subjects were compared for MDS-UPDRS part III score (and derivations of this) to identify subclinical parkinsonism, and association of risk estimates with MDS-UPDRS III scores assessed. RESULTS: Higher risk subjects had significantly higher median UPDRS part III scores (3, IQR 1-5.5) than lower risk subjects (1, IQR 0-3.0; p<0.001), and there was a significantly greater proportion of individuals classified as having subclinical parkinsonism. 18% of the higher risk subjects and 6% of the lower risk subjects exceeded the most stringent published cut-off for subtle parkinsonism of three definitions examined (p=0.027). Linear regression analysis demonstrated a continuous relationship of log-transformed risk estimates with UPDRS part III scores (increase in MDS-UPDRS per doubling of odds 0.52, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.72; p<0.001), which remained after adjustment for multiple vascular risk factors and scores on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (0.58, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.87; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT-PD algorithm identifies a population with an increased rate of motor disturbances.

PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). OBJECTIVE: To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. METHODS: Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. RESULTS: A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Genetic comorbidities in Parkinson's disease.

Parkinson's disease (PD) has a number of known genetic risk factors. Clinical and epidemiological studies have suggested the existence of intermediate factors that may be associated with additional risk of PD. We construct genetic risk profiles for additional epidemiological and clinical factors using known genome-wide association studies (GWAS) loci related to these specific phenotypes to estimate genetic comorbidity in a systematic review. We identify genetic risk profiles based on GWAS variants associated with schizophrenia and Crohn's disease as significantly associated with risk of PD. Conditional analyses adjusting for SNPs near loci associated with PD and schizophrenia or PD and Crohn's disease suggest that spatially overlapping loci associated with schizophrenia and PD account for most of the shared comorbidity, while variation outside of known proximal loci shared by PD and Crohn's disease accounts for their shared genetic comorbidity. We examine brain methylation and expression signatures proximal to schizophrenia and Crohn's disease loci to infer functional changes in the brain associated with the variants contributing to genetic comorbidity. We compare our results with a systematic review of epidemiological literature, while the findings are dissimilar to a degree; marginal genetic associations corroborate the directionality of associations across genetic and epidemiological data. We show a strong genetically defined level of comorbidity between PD and Crohn's disease as well as between PD and schizophrenia, with likely functional consequences of associated variants occurring in brain.

Constipation preceding Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review published literature to estimate the magnitude of association between premorbid constipation and later diagnosis of Parkinson's disease. BACKGROUND: Constipation is a recognised non-motor feature of Parkinson's and has been reported to predate diagnosis in a number of observational studies. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out following the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) criteria. A literature search was undertaken in December 2014 using PubMed and the search terms 'Parkinson's disease' and 'constipation'. Articles were screened for suitability and reviewed against inclusion and exclusion criteria. Studies were included if they assessed constipation by means of a structured questionnaire or if constipation/drugs used to treat constipation were coded in patient medical records. Data were extracted using a standardised template and effect size estimates combined using a fixed-effects model. Heterogeneity was explored with the I(2) statistic. RESULTS: 9 studies were included in the meta-analysis, with a combined sample size of 741 593 participants. Those with constipation had a pooled OR of 2.27 (95% CI 2.09 to 2.46) for developing subsequent Parkinson's disease compared with those without constipation. Weak evidence for heterogeneity was found (I(2)=18.9%, p=0.282). Restricting analysis to studies assessing constipation more than 10 years prior to Parkinson's disease gave a pooled OR of 2.13 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.56; I(2)=0.0%). CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrates that people with constipation are at a higher risk of developing Parkinson's disease compared with those without and that constipation can predate Parkinson's diagnosis by over a decade.

Prenatal reflex DNA screening for Down syndrome: enhancing the screening performance of the initial first trimester test.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of adding three biochemical markers (alphafetoprotein, inhibin-A, and placental growth factor) and two ultrasound markers (ductus venosus pulsatility index and nasal bone examination) to enhance the initial Combined test in prenatal reflex DNA screening for Down syndrome. METHODS: Published data were used to estimate screening performance [detection rates (DRs) and false-positive rates (FPRs)] of reflex DNA screening according to the additional markers used, the proportion of women with the highest initial test risks reflexed to DNA testing and the gestational age at the time of blood collection. RESULTS: If 10% of women are reflexed, the addition of the three biochemical markers to the Combined test increases the DR from 90.8% to 92.3% (FPR 0.025% to 0.027%) with markers measured at 11 completed weeks' gestation. With markers measured at 13 completed weeks' gestation the DR increases from 87.7% to 95.2% (FPRs both 0.027%). The further addition of the two ultrasound markers increases the DR to 96.8% and 97.5% at 11 and 13 weeks' respectively (FPR to 0.024% and 0.022% respectively). CONCLUSION: Adding the specified markers to the Combined test can maintain or improve screening performance with a lower proportion of women reflexed. Our results can be used to determine the most cost-effective reflex DNA screening policy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Antenatal thyroid screening and childhood cognitive function.

BACKGROUND: Children born to women with low thyroid hormone levels have been reported to have decreased cognitive function. METHODS: We conducted a randomized trial in which pregnant women at a gestation of 15 weeks 6 days or less provided blood samples for measurement of thyrotropin and free thyroxine (T(4)). Women were assigned to a screening group (in which measurements were obtained immediately) or a control group (in which serum was stored and measurements were obtained shortly after delivery). Thyrotropin levels above the 97.5th percentile, free T(4) levels below the 2.5th percentile, or both were considered a positive screening result. Women with positive findings in the screening group were assigned to 150 µg of levothyroxine per day. The primary outcome was IQ at 3 years of age in children of women with positive results, as measured by psychologists who were unaware of the group assignments. RESULTS: Of 21,846 women who provided blood samples (at a median gestational age of 12 weeks 3 days), 390 women in the screening group and 404 in the control group tested positive. The median gestational age at the start of levothyroxine treatment was 13 weeks 3 days; treatment was adjusted as needed to achieve a target thyrotropin level of 0.1 to 1.0 mIU per liter. Among the children of women with positive results, the mean IQ scores were 99.2 and 100.0 in the screening and control groups, respectively (difference, 0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1 to 2.6; P=0.40 by intention-to-treat analysis); the proportions of children with an IQ of less than 85 were 12.1% in the screening group and 14.1% in the control group (difference, 2.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.6 to 6.7; P=0.39). An on-treatment analysis showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal screening (at a median gestational age of 12 weeks 3 days) and maternal treatment for hypothyroidism did not result in improved cognitive function in children at 3 years of age. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust UK and Compagnia di San Paulo, Turin; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN46178175.).

Serum neurofilament light chain is a biomarker of human spinal cord injury severity and outcome.

BACKGROUND: Neurofilaments (Nf) are major structural proteins that occur exclusively in neurons. In spinal cord injury (SCI), the severity of disease is quantified by clinical measures that have limited sensitivity and reliability, and no blood-based biomarker has been established to further stratify the degree of injury. We aimed to examine a serum-based NfL immunoassay as predictor of the clinical outcome in SCI. METHODS: Longitudinal measurement of serum NfL was performed in patients with central cord syndrome (CCS, n=4), motor-incomplete SCI (iSCI, n=10), motor-complete SCI (cSCI, n=13) and healthy controls (HC, n=67), and correlated with clinical severity, neurological outcome, and neuroprotective effect of the drug minocycline. RESULTS: Baseline NfL levels were higher in iSCI (21 pg/mL) and cSCI (70 pg/mL) than in HC (5 pg/mL, p=0.006 and p<0.001) and CCS (6 pg/mL, p=0.025 and p=0.010). Levels increased over time (p<0.001) and remained higher in cSCI versus iSCI (p=0.011) and than in CCS (p<0.001). NfL levels correlated with American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) motor score at baseline (r=-0.53, p=0.004) and after 24 h (r=-0.69, p<0.001) and 3-12-month motor outcome (baseline NfL: r=-0.43, p=0.026 and 24 h NfL: r=-0.72, p<0.001). Minocycline treatment showed decreased NfL levels in the subgroup of cSCI patients. CONCLUSIONS: Serum NfL concentrations in SCI patients show a close correlation with acute severity and neurological outcome. Our data provide evidence that serum NfL is of prognostic value in SCI patients for the first time. Further, blood NfL levels may qualify as drug response markers in SCI.

Bone health in Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Parkinson's disease (PD) and osteoporosis are chronic diseases associated with increasing age. Single studies have reported associations between them and the major consequence, namely, increased risk of fractures. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the relationship of PD with osteoporosis, bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk. METHODS: A literature search was undertaken on 4 September 2012 using multiple indexing databases and relevant search terms. Articles were screened for suitability and data extracted where studies met inclusion criteria and were of sufficient quality. Data were combined using standard meta-analysis methods. RESULTS: 23 studies were used in the final analysis. PD patients were at higher risk of osteoporosis (OR 2.61; 95% CI 1.69 to 4.03) compared with healthy controls. Male patients had a lower risk for osteoporosis and osteopenia than female patients (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.68). PD patients had lower hip, lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD levels compared with healthy controls; mean difference, -0.08, 95% CI -0.13 to -0.02 for femoral neck; -0.09, 95% CI -0.15 to -0.03 for lumbar spine; and -0.05, 95% CI -0.07 to -0.03 for total hip. PD patients were also at increased risk of fractures (OR 2.28; 95% CI 1.83 to 2.83). CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrate that PD patients are at higher risk for both osteoporosis and osteopenia compared with healthy controls, and that female patients are at greater risk than male patients. Patients with PD also have lower BMD and are at increased risk of fractures.

PREDICT-PD: identifying risk of Parkinson's disease in the community: methods and baseline results.

OBJECTIVES: To present methods and baseline results for an online screening tool to identify increased risk for Parkinson's disease (PD) in the UK population. METHODS: Risk estimates for future PD were derived from the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD. Participants aged 60-80 years without PD were recruited by self-referral. They completed an online survey (including family history, non-motor symptoms and lifestyle factors), a keyboard-tapping task and the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test. Risk scores were calculated based on survey answers. Preliminary support for the validity of this algorithm was assessed by comparing those estimated to be higher risk for PD with those at lower risk using proxies, including smell loss, REM-sleep behaviour disorder and reduced tapping speed, and by assessing associations in the whole group. RESULTS: 1324 eligible participants completed the survey and 1146 undertook the keyboard-tapping task. Smell tests were sent to 1065 participants. Comparing the 100 highest-risk participants and 100 lowest-risk participants, median University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test scores were 30/40 versus 33/40 (p<0.001), mean number of key taps in 30 s were 55 versus 58 (p=0.045), and 24% versus 10% scored above cut-off for REM-sleep behaviour disorder (p=0.008). Regression analyses showed increasing risk scores were associated with worse scores in the three proxies across the whole group (p≤0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PREDICT-PD is the first study to systematically combine risk factors for PD in the general population. Validity to predict risk of PD will be tested through longitudinal follow-up of incident PD diagnosis.

Comparing screening based on the NHS Health Check and Polypill Prevention Programmes in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the NHS Health Check Programme with the Polypill Prevention Programme in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes. DESIGN: Use of published data and methodology to produce flow charts of the two programmes to determine screening performance and heart attacks and strokes prevented. SETTING: The UK population. INTERVENTION: The NHS Health Check Programme using a QRISK score on people aged 40-74 to select those eligible for a statin is compared with the Polypill Prevention Programme in people aged 50 or more to select people for a combination of a statin and three low-dose blood pressure lowering agents. In both programmes, people had no history of heart attack or stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: In 1000 people, the number of heart attacks and strokes prevented in the two programmes. RESULTS: In the hypothetical perfect situation with 100% uptake and adherence to the screening protocol, in every 1000 persons, the NHS Health Check would prevent 287 cases of a heart attack or stroke in individuals who would gain on average about 4 years of life without a heart attack or stroke amounting to 1148 years in total, the precise gain depending on the extent of treatment for those with raised blood pressure, and 136 would be prescribed statins with no benefit. The corresponding figures for the Polypill Prevention Programme are 316 individuals who would, on average, gain 8 years of life without a heart attack or stroke, amounting to 2528 years in total, and 260 prescribed the polypill with no benefit. Based on published estimates of uptake and adherence in the NHS Health Check Programme, in practice only 24 cases per 1000 are currently benefitting instead of 287, amounting to 96 years gained without a heart attack or stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The Polypill Prevention Programme is by design simpler with the potential of preventing many more heart attacks and strokes than the NHS Health Check Programme.

The polypill in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes: Overcoming barriers to implementation.

This commentary, linked to our paper in the same issue of the Journal of Medical Screening, discusses the reluctance to consider and adopt the polypill in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes, access to the polypill as a public health service, the formulation of the polypill in current use, its prescription as an unlicensed medicine, and what can be done to facilitate the adoption of the polypill approach as a routine public health service.