Predicting bat colony survival under controls targeting multiple transmission routes of white-nose syndrome.

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a lethal infection of bats caused by the psychrophilic fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd). Since the first cases of WNS were documented in 2006, it is estimated that as many as 5.5million bats have succumbed in the United States-one of the fastest mammalian die-offs due to disease ever observed, and the first known sustained epizootic of bats. WNS is contagious between bats, and mounting evidence suggests that a persistent environmental reservoir of Pd plays a significant role in transmission as well. It is unclear, however, the relative contributions of bat-to-bat and environment-to-bat transmission to disease propagation within a colony. We analyze a mathematical model to investigate the consequences of both avenues of transmission on colony survival in addition to the efficacy of disease control strategies. Our model shows that selection of the most effective control strategies is highly dependent on the primary route of WNS transmission. Under all scenarios, however, generalized culling is ineffective and while targeted culling of infected bats may be effective under idealized conditions, it primarily has negative consequences. Thus, understanding the significance of environment-to-bat transmission is paramount to designing effective management plans.

The population ecology of infectious diseases: pertussis in Thailand as a case study.

Many of the fundamental concepts in studying infectious diseases are rooted in population ecology. We describe the importance of population ecology in exploring central issues in infectious disease research including identifying the drivers and dynamics of host-pathogen interactions and pathogen persistence, and evaluating the success of public health policies. The use of ecological concepts in infectious disease research is demonstrated with simple theoretical examples in addition to an analysis of case notification data of pertussis, a childhood respiratory disease, in Thailand as a case study. We stress that further integration of these fields will have significant impacts in infectious diseases research.

The role of interconnectivity in control of an Ebola epidemic.

Several West African countries - Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea - experienced significant morbidity and mortality during the largest Ebola epidemic to date, from late 2013 through 2015. The extent of the epidemic was fueled by outbreaks in large urban population centers as well as movement of the pathogen between populations. During the epidemic there was no known vaccine or drug, so effective disease control required coordinated efforts that include both standard medical and community practices such as hospitalization, quarantine and safe burials. Due to the high connectivity of the region, control of the epidemic not only depended on internal strategies but also was impacted by neighboring countries. In this paper, we use a deterministic framework to examine the role of movement between two populations in the overall success of practices designed to minimize the extent of Ebola epidemics. We find that it is possible for even small amounts of intermixing between populations to positively impact the control of an epidemic on a more global scale.

Using age-stratified incidence data to examine the transmission consequences of pertussis vaccination.

Pertussis is a highly infectious respiratory disease that has been on the rise in many countries worldwide over the past several years. The drivers of this increase in pertussis incidence remain hotly debated, with a central and long-standing hypothesis that questions the ability of vaccines to eliminate pertussis transmission rather than simply modulate the severity of disease. In this paper, we present age-structured case notification data from all provinces of Thailand between 1981 and 2014, a period during which vaccine uptake rose substantially, permitting an evaluation of the transmission impacts of vaccination. Our analyses demonstrate decreases in incidence across all ages with increased vaccine uptake - an observation that is at odds with pertussis case notification data in a number of other countries. To explore whether these observations are consistent with a rise in herd immunity and a reduction in bacterial transmission, we analyze an age-structured model that incorporates contrasting hypotheses concerning the immunological and transmission consequences of vaccines. Our results lead us to conclude that the most parsimonious explanation for the combined reduction in incidence and the shift to older age groups in the Thailand data is vaccine-induced herd immunity.