High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests.

Tropical forests store 40-50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon1. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests2. Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation3, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests2. Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1-164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network4 and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane2,5,6 and lowland7 forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa8. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests4 is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse9,10 and carbon-rich ecosystems.

Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years.

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

Drought, temperature, and moisture availability: understanding the drivers of isotopic decoupling in native pine species of the Nepalese Himalaya.

The Himalayas experienced long-term climate changes and recent extreme weather events that affected plant growth and the physiology of tree species at high-elevation sites. This study presents the first statistically robust δ18OTR chronologies for two native pine species, Pinus roxburghii, and Pinus wallichiana, in the lower Nepalese Himalaya. The isotope chronologies exhibited 0.88‰ differences in overall mean isotope values attributed to varying elevations (460-2000 m asl). Comparative analysis of climate response using data sets from different sources and resolutions revealed the superiority of the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) data set calibrated for the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM)-dominated region. Both species exhibited negative correlations with monsoon precipitation and positive correlations with temperature. However, during the peak monsoon season (July-August), daily resolved climate data disentangled statistically insignificant relationships, and revealed that δ18OTR is influenced by atmospheric moisture. Both congeneric species showed a decoupling between the chronologies after 1995. However, no significant change in air moisture origin and monsoon regime between the study sites was observed, indicating a consistent dominant moisture source during different monsoon seasons. Besides, we also observed the decreased inter-series correlation of both δ18OTR chronologies after 1995, with P. wallichiana experiencing a steeper decrease than P. roxburghii. The weakening correlations between and within the chronologies coincided with a regional drought during 1993-1995 in both sites, highlighting the strong regulation of local climate on the impact of regional extreme climate events. Our findings emphasise the importance of employing climate data with optimal spatial and temporal resolution for improved δ18OTR-climate relationships at the intra-annual scale while considering the influence of site-specific local environmental conditions. Assessing climate data sets with station data is vital for accurately interpreting climate change's impact on forest response and long-term climate reconstructions.

Tree-ring-based seasonal temperature reconstructions and ecological implications of recent warming on oak forest health in the Zagros Mountains, Iran.

Abrupt changes in temperature have especially strong impacts on fragile ecosystems located in semi-arid regions. In this study, we analyzed tree-ring widths (TRW) of Mediterranean cypress (Cupressus sempervirens var. horizontalis) in the Zagros Mountains, Iran. Furthermore, we separately measured earlywood width (EWW) and latewood width (LWW) of Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) to examine if intra-annual resolution of tree-ring parameters of Q. brantii tree rings can be used as high-resolution paleoclimate proxies. Climate-growth relationships revealed that mean monthly maximum temperatures (Tmax) are a dominant factor determining radial tree growth and negatively affect both oak and cypress in the Zagros Mountains. Accordingly, we reconstructed two different seasonal windows of past Tmax variability, namely, January-March and June-August over the periods 1860-2015 and 1560-2015, respectively. Regime shift detection identified twelve warm and nine cold significant regime shifts in our summer Tmax reconstructions. The longest hot summer period occurred in the twentieth century, and two warm regime shifts occurred in 1999 and 2008. The highest values of the warm summer regime shift index occurred in 2008, which coincided with fungal pathogen attacks and insect outbreak of the oak leaf roller moth (Tortrix viridana L.) in the Zagros oak woodlands. Interestingly, we found common warm and cold periods in historic climate variability between the summer and winter Tmax reconstructions. Warm and cold regime shifts occurred simultaneously from 1955 to 2015, and significant regional warm summer and winter regime shifts have occurred between 2008 and 2015. The winter and summer Tmax reconstructions show high spatial correlations with large areas in West Asia, North Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region. Our results strengthen initial studies on past climate variability in Iran and contribute to an enhanced understanding of past temperature variability in West Asia.

A research framework for projecting ecosystem change in highly diverse tropical mountain ecosystems.

Tropical mountain ecosystems are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Their diversity and complexity make projections how they respond to environmental changes challenging. A suitable way are trait-based approaches, by distinguishing between response traits that determine the resistance of species to environmental changes and effect traits that are relevant for species' interactions, biotic processes, and ecosystem functions. The combination of those approaches with land surface models (LSM) linking the functional community composition to ecosystem functions provides new ways to project the response of ecosystems to environmental changes. With the interdisciplinary project RESPECT, we propose a research framework that uses a trait-based response-effect-framework (REF) to quantify relationships between abiotic conditions, the diversity of functional traits in communities, and associated biotic processes, informing a biodiversity-LSM. We apply the framework to a megadiverse tropical mountain forest. We use a plot design along an elevation and a land-use gradient to collect data on abiotic drivers, functional traits, and biotic processes. We integrate these data to build the biodiversity-LSM and illustrate how to test the model. REF results show that aboveground biomass production is not directly related to changing climatic conditions, but indirectly through associated changes in functional traits. Herbivory is directly related to changing abiotic conditions. The biodiversity-LSM informed by local functional trait and soil data improved the simulation of biomass production substantially. We conclude that local data, also derived from previous projects (platform Ecuador), are key elements of the research framework. We specify essential datasets to apply this framework to other mountain ecosystems.

New perspective on spring vegetation phenology and global climate change based on Tibetan Plateau tree-ring data.

Phenological responses of vegetation to climate, in particular to the ongoing warming trend, have received much attention. However, divergent results from the analyses of remote sensing data have been obtained for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the world's largest high-elevation region. This study provides a perspective on vegetation phenology shifts during 1960-2014, gained using an innovative approach based on a well-validated, process-based, tree-ring growth model that is independent of temporal changes in technical properties and image quality of remote sensing products. Twenty composite site chronologies were analyzed, comprising about 3,000 trees from forested areas across the TP. We found that the start of the growing season (SOS) has advanced, on average, by 0.28 d/y over the period 1960-2014. The end of the growing season (EOS) has been delayed, by an estimated 0.33 d/y during 1982-2014. No significant changes in SOS or EOS were observed during 1960-1981. April-June and August-September minimum temperatures are the main climatic drivers for SOS and EOS, respectively. An increase of 1 °C in April-June minimum temperature shifted the dates of xylem phenology by 6 to 7 d, lengthening the period of tree-ring formation. This study extends the chronology of TP phenology farther back in time and reconciles the disparate views on SOS derived from remote sensing data. Scaling up this analysis may improve understanding of climate change effects and related phenological and plant productivity on a global scale.

Air moisture signals in a stable oxygen isotope chronology of dwarf shrubs from the central Tibetan Plateau.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Annually resolved biological climate proxies beyond the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution limit of trees are rare. In such regions, several studies have demonstrated that annual growth rings of dwarf shrubs are suitable proxies for palaeoclimatic investigations. In High Asia, the pioneer work of Liang et al. (Liang E, Lu X, Ren P, Li X, Zhu L, Eckstein D, 2012. Annual increments of juniper dwarf shrubs above the tree line on the central Tibetan Plateau: a useful climatic proxy. Annals of Botany109: 721-728) confirmed the suitability of shrub growth-ring chronologies for palaeoclimatic research. This study presents the first sensitivity study of an annually resolved δ18O time series inferred from Wilson juniper (Juniperus pingii var. wilsonii) from the northern shoreline of lake Nam Co (Tibetan Plateau). METHODS: Based on five individual dwarf shrub discs, a statistically reliable δ18O chronology covering the period 1957-2009 was achieved (expressed population signal = 0.80). Spearman's correlation analysis between the δ18O chronology and climate variables from different sources was applied. In a first step, the suitability of various climate data was evaluated. KEY RESULTS: Examinations of climate-proxy relationships revealed significant negative correlations between the δ18O shrub chronology and summer season moisture variability of the previous and current year. In particular, relative humidity of the previous and current vegetation period significantly determined the proxy variability (ρ = -0.48, P < 0.01). Furthermore, the δ18O variability of the developed shrub chronology significantly coincided with a nearby tree-ring δ18O chronology of the same genus (r = 0.62, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The δ18O shrub chronology reliably recorded humidity variations in the Nam Co region. The chronology was significantly correlated with a nearby moisture-sensitive tree-ring δ18O chronology, indicating a common climate signal in the two chronologies. This climate signal was likely determined by moisture variations of the Asian summer monsoon. Local climate effects were superimposed on the supra-regional climate signature of the monsoon circulation. Opposing δ18O values between the two chronologies were interpreted as plant-physiological differences during isotopic fractionation processes.

Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations.

The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade-1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that were not included into the growth model. The estimated lengthening of the growing season could substantially affect carbon sequestration and forest productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment.

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7 years and 1-8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Air mass origin signals in δ 18O of tree-ring cellulose revealed by back-trajectory modeling at the monsoonal Tibetan plateau.

A profound consideration of stable oxygen isotope source water origins is a precondition for an unambiguous palaeoenvironmental interpretation of terrestrial δ 18O archives. To stress the influence of air mass origins on widely used δ 18O tree-ring chronologies, we conducted correlation analyses between six annually resolved δ 18O tree-ring cellulose ([Formula: see text]) chronologies and mean annual air package origins obtained from backward trajectory modeling. This novel approach has been tested for a transect at the southeastern Tibetan plateau (TP), where air masses with different isotopic composition overlap. Detailed examinations of daily precipitation amounts and monthly precipitation δ 18O values ([Formula: see text]) were conducted with the ERA Interim and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique General Circulation Model (LMDZiso) data, respectively. Particularly the southernmost study sites are influenced by a distinct amount effect. Here, air package origin [Formula: see text] relations are generally weaker in contrast to our northern located study sites. We found that tree-ring isotope signatures at dry sites with less rain days per year tend to be influenced stronger by air mass origin than tree-ring isotope values at semi-humid sites. That implies that the local hydroclimate history inferred from [Formula: see text] archives is better recorded at semi-humid sites.

Stable carbon isotope labeling reveals different carry-over effects between functional types of tropical trees in an Ethiopian mountain forest.

We present an intra-annual stable carbon isotope (δ(13)C) study based on a labeling experiment to illustrate differences in temporal patterns of recent carbon allocation to wood structures of two functional types of trees, Podocarpus falcatus (a late-successional evergreen conifer) and Croton macrostachyus (a deciduous broadleaved pioneer tree), in a tropical mountain forest in Ethiopia. Dendrometer data, wood anatomical thin sections, and intra-annual δ(13)C analyses were applied. Isotope data revealed a clear annual growth pattern in both studied species. For P. falcatus, it was possible to synchronize annual δ(13) C peaks, wood anatomical structures and monthly precipitation patterns. The labeling signature was evident for three consecutive years. For C. macrostachyus, isotope data illustrate a rapid decline of the labeling signal within half a year. Our δ(13)C labeling study indicates a distinct difference in carryover effects between trees of different functional types. A proportion of the labeled δ(13)C is stored in reserves of wood parenchyma for up to 3 yr in P. falcatus. By contrast, C. macrostachyus shows a high turnover of assimilates and a carbon carryover effect is only detectable in the subsequent year.

INTRAGRO: A machine learning approach to predict future growth of trees under climate change.

The escalating impact of climate change on global terrestrial ecosystems demands a robust prediction of the trees' growth patterns and physiological adaptation for sustainable forestry and successful conservation efforts. Understanding these dynamics at an intra-annual resolution can offer deeper insights into tree responses under various future climate scenarios. However, the existing approaches to infer cambial or leaf phenological change are mainly focused on certain climatic zones (such as higher latitudes) or species with foliage discolouration during the fall season. In this study, we demonstrated a novel approach (INTRAGRO) to combine intra-annual circumference records generated by dendrometers coupled to the output of climate models to predict future tree growth at intra-annual resolution using a series of supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms. INTRAGRO performed well using our dataset, that is dendrometer data of P. roxburghii Sarg. from the subtropical mid-elevation belt of Nepal, with robust test statistics. Our growth prediction shows enhanced tree growth at our study site for the middle and end of the 21st century. This result is remarkable since the predicted growing season by INTRAGRO is expected to shorten due to changes in seasonal precipitation. INTRAGRO's key advantage is the opportunity to analyse changes in trees' intra-annual growth dynamics on a global scale, regardless of the investigated tree species, regional climate and geographical conditions. Such information is important to assess tree species' growth performance and physiological adaptation to growing season change under different climate scenarios.

Trees with anisohydric behavior as main drivers of nocturnal evapotranspiration in a tropical mountain rainforest.

This study addresses transpiration in a tropical evergreen mountain forest in the Ecuadorian Andes from the leaf to the stand level, with emphasis on nocturnal plant-water relations. The stand level: Evapotranspiration (ET) measured over 12 months with the Eddy-Covariance (ECov) technique proved as the major share (79%) of water received from precipitation. Irrespective of the humid climate, the vegetation transpired day and night. On average, 15.3% of the total daily ET were due to nocturnal transpiration. Short spells of drought increased daily ET, mainly by enhanced nighttime transpiration. Following leaf transpiration rather than air temperature and atmospheric water vapor deficit, ET showed its maximum already in the morning hours. The tree level: Due to the humid climate, the total water consumption of trees was generally low. Nevertheless, xylem sap flux measurements separated the investigated tree species into a group showing relatively high and another one with low sap flux rates. The leaf level: Transpiration rates of Tapirira guianensis, a member of the high-flux-rate group, were more than twice those of Ocotea aciphylla, a representative of the group showing low sap flux rates. Representatives of the Tapirira group operated at a relatively high leaf water potential but with a considerable diurnal amplitude, while the leaves of the Ocotea group showed low water potential and small diurnal fluctuations. Overall, the Tapirira group performed anisohydrically and the Ocotea group isohydrically. Grouping of the tree species by their water relations complied with the extents of the diurnal stem circumference fluctuations. Nighttime transpiration and hydrological type: In contrast to the isohydrically performing trees of the Ocotea group, the anisohydric trees showed considerable water vapour pressure deficit (VPD)-dependent nocturnal transpiration. Therefore, we conclude that nighttime ET at the forest level is mainly sourced by the tree species with anisohydric performance.

Effects of environmental and spatial gradients on Quercus-dominated Mountain forest communities in the Hindu-Kush ranges of Pakistan.

Quercus-dominated forests are among the most important broad-leaved evergreen forests of the Hindu Kush ranges and are currently prone to drastic anthropogenic and climatic changes. The aim of this study was to provide basic data for the development of a regional oak forest ecosystem framework for ecological restoration and management plan development to maintain local peoples' livelihoods. Hence, we analyzed distribution patterns and environmental factors that affect regional oak forests' species composition and diversity. Ward's Agglomerative clustering divided oak-dominated forest communities into three groups: i.e., Group I, dominated by Quercus baloot had an importance value index (IVI) of 89.87 ± 4.31, Group II, dominated by Quercus dilatata had an IVI of 32.16 ± 15.01, and Group III, dominated by Quercus oblongata had an IVI of 83.14 ± 4.67, respectively. The environmental factors which vary significantly within these communities were latitude, elevation, clay content and bulk density of the soil. Wilting point, saturation point, and electrical conductivity were also considered as ecosystem structural variables. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicated that community structure was affected by various environmental factors including precipitation, slope angle, elevation, clay content, and relative humidity.

Flood signals in tree-ring δ18O and wood anatomical parameters of Lagerstroemia speciosa: Implications for developing flood management strategies in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh consists of 80% of the flood plain of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system (GBM), making the country one of the highest flood prone countries of the world. Due to the high rate of discharge of the GBM caused by the summer monsoon and the snowmelt of the Eastern Himalaya and Southern Tibetan Plateau due to climate change, Bangladesh witnessed 16 flood events over 1954-2017. We performed a multiproxy tree-ring analysis to investigate the impact of extreme flood events on tree growth, xylem anatomical parameters and oxygen isotope composition of tree-ring cellulose (δ18Otr) in a Bangladeshi moist tropical forest and to establish relationships between water level of the regional rivers and tree-ring parameters. By using pointer year analysis and comparing the pointer years with historical flood records (a cut-off threshold of the country's flooded land area of 33.3%), we identified the three extreme flood events (hereafter called flood years) 1974, 1988, and 1998 in Bangladesh. Superposed epoch analysis revealed significant changes in Tree-ring width (TRW), total vessel area (TVA), vessel density (VD), and δ18Otr during flood years. Flood associated hypoxic soil conditions reduced TRW up to 53% and TVA up to 28%, varying with flood events. In contrast, VD increased by 23% as a safety mechanism against flood induced hydraulic failure. Tree-ring δ18O significantly decreased during the flood years due to the amount effect in regional precipitation. Bootstrapped Pearson correlation analysis showed that wood anatomical variables encoded stronger river level signals than TRW and δ18Otr. Among the wood anatomical parameters, VD showed a strong relationship (r = -0.58, p < 0.01) with the water level of the Manu River, a regional river of the north-eastern part of Bangladesh, indicating that VD can be used as a reliable proxy for river level reconstruction. Our analyses suggest that multiproxy tree-ring analysis is a potential tool to study tropical moist forest responses to extreme flood events and to identify suitable proxies for reconstructing hydrological characteristics of South Asian rivers.

Volume estimation models for avocado fruit.

Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) is an important horticultural crop and proved to be a very profitable commercial crop for both local consumption and export. The physical characteristics of fruits are an important factor to determine the quality of fruit produced. On the other hand, estimation of fruit volume is time-consuming and impractical under field conditions. Thus, this study was conducted to devise cultivar-specific and generalized allometric models to analytically and non-destructively determine avocado fruit volume of five wildly distributed avocado cultivars. A significant relationship (P ≤ 0.01) was found between fruit diameter, length, and volume of each cultivar. Our best models (VM2 -for cultivar specific, and VM7-generalized model) has passed all the rigorous cross-validation and performance statistics tests and explained 94%, 92%, 87%, 93%, 94% and 93% of the variations in fruit volume of Ettinger, Fuerte, Hass, Nabal, Reed, and Multiple cultivars, respectively. Our finding revealed that in situations where measurements of volume would be inconvenient, or time-consuming, a reliable volume and yield estimation can be obtained using site- and cultivar-specific allometric equations. Allometric models could also play a significant role in improving data availability on avocado fruit physical appearance which is critical to assess the quality and taste of fresh products influencing the purchase decision of customers. Moreover, such information can also be used as a ripeness index to predict optimum harvest time important for planned marketing. More importantly, the models might assist horticulturists, agronomists, and physiologists to conduct further study on avocado production and productivity through agroforestry landuse system across Ethiopia.

Tree-ring δ18O climate signals vary among tree functional types in South Asian tropical moist forests.

We present the first annually resolved and statistically reliable tree-ring δ18O (δ18OT) chronologies for the three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem., and Lagerstroemia speciosa Roxb.) which differ in their shade tolerance and resistance to water stress. We found significantly higher mean δ18OT values in light-demanding T. ciliata than in intermediate shade tolerant C. tabularis and shade tolerant L. speciosa (p < 0.001). δ18OT in C. tabularis was mainly influenced by pre-monsoon vapor pressure deficit (VPD; r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and post monsoon maximum temperature (Tmax) (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). δ18OT in T. ciliata was strongly negatively correlated with a dry season drought index PDSI (r = -0.65, p < 0.001) and VPD (r = -0.58, p < 0.001). Pre-monsoon Tmax was strongly positively linked with δ18OT in L. speciosa (r = 0.65, p < 0.001), indicating that climatic influences on δ18OT are species-specific and vary among tree functional types. Although there was a week correlation between local precipitation and δ18OT in our studied species, we found a strong correlation between δ18OT and precipitation at a larger spatial scale. Linear mixed effect models revealed that multiple factors improved model performance only in C. tabularis, yielding the best model, which combined VPD and Tmax. The top models in T. ciliata and L. speciosa included only the single factors PDSI and Tmax, highlighting that the way C. tabularis interacts with climate is more complex when compared with other two species. Our analyses suggest that stable oxygen isotope composition in tree rings of South Asian tropical moist forest trees are a suitable proxy of local and regional climate variability and are an important tool for understanding the physiological mechanisms associated with the global hydrological cycle.

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10-1900.

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10-1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.