The evolving story of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato transmission in Europe.

Beside mosquitoes, ticks are well-known vectors of different human pathogens. In the Northern Hemisphere, Lyme borreliosis (Eurasia, LB) or Lyme disease (North America, LD) is the most commonly occurring vector-borne infectious disease caused by bacteria of the genus Borrelia which are transmitted by hard ticks of the genus Ixodes. The reported incidence of LB in Europe is about 22.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually with a broad range depending on the geographical area analyzed. However, the epidemiological data are largely incomplete, because LB is not notifiable in all European countries. Furthermore, not only differ reporting procedures between countries, there is also variation in case definitions and diagnostic procedures. Lyme borreliosis is caused by several species of the Borrelia (B.) burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) complex which are maintained in complex networks including ixodid ticks and different reservoir hosts. Vector and host influence each other and are affected by multiple factors including climate that have a major impact on their habitats and ecology. To classify factors that influence the risk of transmission of B. burgdorferi s.l. to their different vertebrate hosts as well as to humans, we briefly summarize the current knowledge about the pathogens including their astonishing ability to overcome various host immune responses, regarding the main vector in Europe Ixodes ricinus, and the disease caused by borreliae. The research shows, that a higher standardization of case definition, diagnostic procedures, and standardized, long-term surveillance systems across Europe is necessary to improve clinical and epidemiological data.

Maps of ticks (Acari: Argasidae, Ixodidae) for Austria and South Tyrol, Italy.

A first compilation of georeferenced tick locations in Austria and South Tyrol, Italy, is presented here. This allows the tick fauna to be examined in the various climatic regions of the European Alps. The dataset comprises 424 tick locations of Austria and 48 tick locations of South Tyrol, which were digitized from literature and visualized in the form of geographical maps. The tick fauna of Austria includes two species of Argasidae in the genera Argas and Carios and 15 species of Ixodidae in the genera Dermacentor, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes, altogether 17 tick species. In addition, two species of Ixodidae in the genera Hyalomma (each spring imported by migratory birds) and Rhipicephalus (occasionally imported by dogs returning from abroad with their owners) are included in the tick atlas. Of these, the georeferenced locations of 18 tick species are depicted in maps. The occurrence of the one remaining tick species, Ixodes inopinatus, is given at the level of the federal states. The first Austrian distribution map of the long-legged bat tick Ixodes vespertilionis, which was reported from 21 caves, deserves special mention. The most common and widespread tick species is Ixodes ricinus, with records in all nine federal states of Austria, followed by Ixodes canisuga, Ixodes hexagonus, and I. vespertilionis in six federal states each. Haemaphysalis concinna and Dermacentor reticulatus are only endemic in the eastern plains, while Dermacentor marginatus only occurs in the west, in the Tyrolean Alpine valleys. Eight tick species were reported from South Tyrol, Italy. There, the most frequently flagged tick from the vegetation is also I. ricinus, while D. marginatus and Haemaphysalis punctata are often collected from sheep. The locations are shown together with those from North and East Tyrol on a separate Tyrol map. The tick atlas in Austria and South Tyrol as well as the underlying digital dataset in the supplement contribute to the closing of data gaps in global distribution maps of ticks and improve the data basis for new species distribution models.

Atlas of ticks (Acari: Argasidae, Ixodidae) in Germany.

An updated and increased compilation of georeferenced tick locations in Germany is presented here. This data collection extends the dataset published some years ago by another 1448 new tick locations, 900 locations of which were digitized from literature and 548 locations are published here for the first time. This means that a total of 3492 georeferenced tick locations is now available for Germany. The tick fauna of Germany includes two species of Argasidae in the genera Argas and Carios and 19 species of Ixodidae in the genera Dermacentor, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes, altogether 21 tick species. In addition, three species of Ixodidae in the genera Hyalomma (each spring imported by migratory birds) and Rhipicephalus (occasionally imported by dogs returning from abroad with their owners) are included in the tick atlas. Of these, the georeferenced locations of 23 tick species are depicted in maps. The occurrence of the one remaining tick species, the recently described Ixodes inopinatus, is given at the level of the federal states. The most common and widespread tick species is Ixodes ricinus, with records in all 16 federal states. With the exception of Hamburg, Dermacentor reticulatus was also found in all federal states. The occurrence of the ixodid ticks Ixodes canisuga, Ixodes frontalis, Ixodes hexagonus and I. inopinatus were documented in at least 11 federal states each. The two mentioned argasid tick species were also documented in numerous federal states, the pigeon tick Argas reflexus in 11 and the bat tick Carios vespertilionis in seven federal states. The atlas of ticks in Germany and the underlying digital dataset in the supplement can be used to improve global tick maps or to study the effects of climate change and habitat alteration on the distribution of tick species.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases are not random: explaining trend, low- and high-frequency oscillations based on the Austrian TBE time series.

BACKGROUND: Why human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases differ from year to year, in some years more 100%, has not been clarified, yet. The cause of the increasing or decreasing trends is also controversial. Austria is the only country in Europe where a 40-year TBE time series and an official vaccine coverage time series are available to investigate these open questions. METHODS: A series of generalized linear models (GLMs) has been developed to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the trend and the oscillations of the TBE time series. Both the observed and the predicted TBE time series were subjected to spectral analysis. The resulting power spectra indicate which predictors are responsible for the trend, the high-frequency and the low-frequency oscillations, and with which explained variance they contribute to the TBE oscillations. RESULTS: The increasing trend can be associated with the demography of the increasing human population. The responsible GLM explains 12% of the variance of the TBE time series. The low-frequency oscillations (10 years) are associated with the decadal changes of the large-scale climate in Central Europe. These are well described by the so-called Scandinavian index. This 10-year oscillation cycle is reinforced by the socio-economic predictor net migration. Considering the net migration and the Scandinavian index increases the explained variance of the GLM to 44%. The high-frequency oscillations (2-3 years) are associated with fluctuations of the natural TBE transmission cycle between small mammals and ticks, which are driven by beech fructification. Considering also fructification 2 years prior explains 64% of the variance of the TBE time series. Additionally, annual sunshine duration as predictor for the human outdoor activity increases the explained variance to 70%. CONCLUSIONS: The GLMs presented here provide the basis for annual TBE forecasts, which were mainly determined by beech fructification. A total of 3 of the 5 years with full fructification, resulting in high TBE case numbers 2 years later, occurred after 2010. The effects of climate change are therefore not visible through a direct correlation of the TBE cases with rising temperatures, but indirectly via the increased frequency of mast seeding.

Long-term monitoring of the seasonal density of questing ixodid ticks in Vienna (Austria): setup and first results.

The first long-term monitoring to document both activity and density of questing ixodid ticks in Vienna, Austria, is introduced. It was started in 2017 and is planned to run over decades. Such long-term monitorings are needed to quantify possible effects of climate change or to develop tick density forecast models. The monthly questing tick density at three sites has been observed by using a standardized sampling method by dragging an area of [Formula: see text] at each occasion. Popular recreational areas were chosen as study sites. These are the Prater public park, the wooded Kahlenberg, and a wildlife garden in Klosterneuburg. First results show a 3-year time series of nymphs and adults of the Ixodes ricinus species complex and Haemaphysalis concinna for the period 2017-2019. Whereas questing nymphs of the I. ricinus species complex were collected from February to November, H. concinna nymphs were only dragged from May to October. The peak of nymphal activity of the I. ricinus species complex was in May, that of H. concinna in August. In addition, a brief overview is given about ticks and tick-borne pathogens occurring in urban and suburban areas of Vienna.

Vectors of disease at the northern distribution limit of the genus Dermacentor in Eurasia: D. reticulatus and D. silvarum.

The two ixodid tick species Dermacentor reticulatus (Fabricius) and Dermacentor silvarum Olenev occur at the northern distribution limit of the genus Dermacentor in Eurasia, within the belt of [Formula: see text] latitude. Whilst the distribution area of D. reticulatus extends from the Atlantic coast of Portugal to Western Siberia, that of D. silvarum extends from Western Siberia to the Pacific coast. In Western Siberia, the distribution areas of the two Dermacentor species overlap. Although the two tick species are important vectors of disease, detailed information concerning the entire distribution area, climate adaptation, and proven vector competence is still missing. A dataset was compiled, resulting in 2188 georeferenced D. reticulatus and 522 D. silvarum locations. Up-to-date maps depicting the geographical distribution and climate adaptation of the two Dermacentor species are presented. To investigate the climate adaptation of the two tick species, the georeferenced locations were superimposed on a high-resolution map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The frequency distribution of D. reticulatus under different climates shows two major peaks related to the following climates: warm temperate with precipitation all year round (57%) and boreal with precipitation all year round (40%). The frequency distribution of D. silvarum shows also two major peaks related to boreal climates with precipitation all year round (30%) and boreal winter dry climates (60%). Dermacentor silvarum seems to be rather flexible concerning summer temperatures, which can range from cool to hot. In climates with cool summers D. reticulatus does not occur, it prefers warm and to a lesser extent hot summers. Lists are given in this paper for cases of proven vector competence for various agents of both Dermacentor species. For the first time, the entire distribution areas of D. reticulatus and D. silvarum were mapped using georeferenced data. Their climate adaptations were quantified by Köppen profiles.

Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985-2016).

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall. RESULTS: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem.

Forecasting next season's Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018.

The castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the principal vector of pathogens causing tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme borreliosis in Europe. It is therefore of general interest to make an estimate of the density of I. ricinus for the whole year at the beginning of the tick season. There are two necessary conditions for making a successful prediction: a long homogeneous time series of observed tick density and a clear biological relationship between environmental predictors and tick density. A 9-year time series covering the period 2009-2017 of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in southern Germany has been used. With the hypothesis that I. ricinus density is triggered by the fructification of the European beech 2 years before, the mean annual temperature of the previous year, and the current mean winter temperature (December-February), a forecast of the annual nymphal tick density has been made. Therefore, a Poisson regression model was generated resulting in an explained variance of 93.4% and an error of [Formula: see text] ticks per [Formula: see text] (annual [Formula: see text] collected ticks/[Formula: see text]). An independent verification of the forecast for the year 2017 resulted in 187 predicted versus 180 observed nymphs per [Formula: see text]. For the year 2018 a relatively high number of 443 questing I. ricinus nymphs per [Formula: see text] is forecasted, i.e., a "good" tick year.

Seasonal cycles of the TBE and Lyme borreliosis vector Ixodes ricinus modelled with time-lagged and interval-averaged predictors.

Ticks of the species Ixodes ricinus (L.) are the major vectors for tick-borne diseases in Europe. The aim of this study was to quantify the influence of environmental variables on the seasonal cycle of questing I. ricinus. Therefore, an 8-year time series of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in Haselmühl (Germany) was compiled. For the first time, cross correlation maps were applied to identify optimal associations between observed nymphal I. ricinus densities and time-lagged as well as temporal averaged explanatory variables. To prove the explanatory power of these associations, two Poisson regression models were generated. The first model simulates the ticks of the entire time series flagged per 100 m[Formula: see text], the second model the mean seasonal cycle. Explanatory variables comprise the temperature of the flagging month, the relative humidity averaged from the flagging month and 1 month prior to flagging, the temperature averaged over 4-6 months prior to the flagging event and the hunting statistics of the European hare from the preceding year. The first model explains 65% of the monthly tick variance and results in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 17 ticks per 100 m[Formula: see text]. The second model explains 96% of the tick variance. Again, the accuracy is expressed by the RMSE, which is 5 ticks per 100 m[Formula: see text]. As a major result, this study demonstrates that tick densities are higher correlated with time-lagged and temporal averaged variables than with contemporaneous explanatory variables, resulting in a better model performance.

Outdoor and indoor monitoring of livestock-associated Culicoides spp. to assess vector-free periods and disease risks.

BACKGROUND: Within the last few decades Culicoides spp. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) emerged Europe-wide as a major vector for epizootic viral diseases e.g. caused by Bluetongue (BT) or Schmallenberg virus. In accordance with the EU regulation 1266/2007, veterinary authorities are requested to determine vector-free periods for loosing trade and movement restrictions of susceptible livestock. Additionally, the widely used basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is optionally applied for risk assessment of vector-borne diseases. Values of R0 < 1 indicate periods with no disease transmission risk. For the determination of vector-free period and R0 a continuously operating daily Culicoides spp. monitoring in Vienna (Austria) was established. It covered the period 2009-2013 and depicts the seasonal vector abundance indoor and outdoor. Future BT and African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak risks were estimated by projecting R0 to climate change scenarios. Therefore, temperature-dependent vector parameters were applied. RESULTS: The vector-free period lasted about 100 days inside stables, while less than five Culicoides were trapped outdoors on 150 days per season, i.e. winter half year. Additionally, the potential outbreak risk was assessed for BT and AHS. For BT, a basic reproduction number of R0 > 1 was found each year between June and August. The periods without transmission risk, i.e. R0 < 1, were notably higher (200 days). Contrary, values of R0 < 1 were estimated for AHS during the whole period. Finally, the basic reproduction numbers were projected to the future by using temperature forecasts for the period 2014-2100. While the mean summer peak values for BT increase from of R0 = 2.3 to R0 = 3.4 until 2100 (1.1/100 years), no risk for AHS was estimated even under climate warming assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Restrictions to trade and movement are always associated with an economic impact during epidemic diseases. To minimize these impacts, risk assessments based on the vector-free period or the basic reproduction number R0 can essentially support veterinary authorities to improve protection and control measurements.

The ecological niche of Dermacentor marginatus in Germany.

The ixodid tick Dermacentor marginatus (Sulzer, 1776) is endemic throughout southern Europe in the range of 33-51 (°) N latitude. In Germany, however, D. marginatus was exclusively reported in the Rhine valley and adjacent areas. Its northern distribution limit near Giessen is located at the coordinates 8.32 (°) E/50.65 (°) N. Particularly with regard to the causative agents of rickettsioses, tularemia, and Q fever, the observed locations as well as the potential distribution of the vector D. marginatus in Germany are of special interest. Applying a dataset of 118 georeferenced tick locations, the ecological niche for D. marginatus was calculated. It is described by six climate parameters based on temperature and relative humidity and another six environmental parameters including land cover classes and altitude. The final ecological niche is determined by the frequency distributions of these 12 parameters at the tick locations. Main parameters are the mean annual temperature (frequency distribution characterized by the minimum, median, and maximum of 6.1, 9.9, and 12.2 (°)C), the mean annual relative humidity (73.7, 76.7, and 80.9 %), as well as the altitude (87, 240, 1108 m). The climate and environmental niche is used to estimate the habitat suitability of D. marginatus in Germany by applying the BIOCLIM model. Finally, the potential spatial distribution of D. marginatus was calculated and mapped by determining an optimal threshold value of the suitability index, i.e., the maximum of sensitivity and specificity (Youden index). The model performance is expressed by AUC = 0.91.

Estimating Ixodes ricinus densities on the landscape scale.

BACKGROUND: The study describes the estimation of the spatial distribution of questing nymphal tick densities by investigating Ixodes ricinus in Southwest Germany as an example. The production of high-resolution maps of questing tick densities is an important key to quantify the risk of tick-borne diseases. Previous I. ricinus maps were based on quantitative as well as semi-quantitative categorisations of the tick density observed at study sites with different vegetation types or indices, all compiled on local scales. Here, a quantitative approach on the landscape scale is introduced. METHODS: During 2 years, 2013 and 2014, host-seeking ticks were collected each month at 25 sampling sites by flagging an area of 100 square meters. All tick stages were identified to species level to select nymphal ticks of I. ricinus, which were used to develop and calibrate Poisson regression models. The environmental variables height above sea level, temperature, relative humidity, saturation deficit and land cover classification were used as explanatory variables. RESULTS: The number of flagged nymphal tick densities range from zero (mountain site) to more than 1,000 nymphs/100 m(2). Calibrating the Poisson regression models with these nymphal densities results in an explained variance of 72 % and a prediction error of 110 nymphs/100 m(2) in 2013. Generally, nymphal densities (maximum 374 nymphs/100 m(2)), explained variance (46 %) and prediction error (61 nymphs/100 m(2)) were lower in 2014. The models were used to compile high-resolution maps with 0.5 km(2) grid size for the study region of the German federal state Baden-Württemberg. The accuracy of the mapped tick densities was investigated by leave-one-out cross-validation resulting in root-mean-square-errors of 227 nymphs/100 m(2) for 2013 and 104 nymphs/100 m(2) for 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology introduced here may be applied to further tick species or extended to other study regions. Finally, the study is a first step towards the spatial estimation of tick-borne diseases in Central Europe.

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and their relevance as disease vectors in the city of Vienna, Austria.

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) are important vectors for a wide range of pathogenic organisms. As large parts of the human population in developed countries live in cities, the occurrence of vector-borne diseases in urban areas is of particular interest for epidemiologists and public health authorities. In this study, we investigated the mosquito occurrence in the city of Vienna, Austria, in order to estimate the risk of transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. Mosquitoes were captured using different sampling techniques at 17 sites in the city of Vienna. Species belonging to the Culex pipiens complex (78.8 %) were most abundant, followed by Coquillettidia richiardii (10.2 %), Anopheles plumbeus (5.4 %), Aedes vexans (3.8 %), and Ochlerotatus sticticus (0.7 %). Individuals of the Cx. pipiens complex were found at 80.2 % of the trap sites, while 58.8 % of the trap sites were positive for Cq. richiardii and Ae. vexans. Oc. sticticus was captured at 35.3 % of the sites, and An. plumbeus only at 23.5 % of the trap sites. Cx. pipiens complex is known to be a potent vector and pathogens like West Nile virus (WNV), Usutu virus (USUV), Tahyna virus (TAHV), Sindbis virus (SINV), Plasmodium sp., and Dirofilaria repens can be transmitted by this species. Cq. richiardii is a known vector species for Batai virus (BATV), SINV, TAHV, and WNV, while Ae. vexans can transmit TAHV, USUV, WNV, and Dirofilaria repens. An. plumbeus and Oc. sticticus seem to play only a minor role in the transmission of vector-borne diseases in Vienna. WNV, which is already wide-spread in Europe, is likely to be the highest threat in Vienna as it can be transmitted by several of the most common species, has already been shown to pose a higher risk in cities, and has the possibility to cause severe illness.

Reservoirs of listeria species in three environmental ecosystems.

Soil and water are suggested to represent pivotal niches for the transmission of Listeria monocytogenes to plant material, animals, and the food chain. In the present study, 467 soil and 68 water samples were collected in 12 distinct geological and ecological sites in Austria from 2007 to 2009. Listeria was present in 30% and 26% of the investigated soil and water samples, respectively. Generally, the most dominant species in soil and water samples were Listeria seeligeri, L. innocua, and L. ivanovii. The human- and animal-pathogenic L. monocytogenes was isolated exclusively from 6% soil samples in regions A (mountainous region) and B (meadow). Distinct ecological preferences were observed for L. seeligeri and L. ivanovii, which were more often isolated from wildlife reserve region C (Lake Neusiedl) and from sites in proximity to wild and domestic ruminants (region A). The higher L. monocytogenes detection and antibiotic resistance rates in regions A and B could be explained by the proximity to agricultural land and urban environment. L. monocytogenes multilocus sequence typing corroborated this evidence since sequence type 37 (ST37), ST91, ST101, and ST517 were repeatedly isolated from regions A and B over several months. A higher L. monocytogenes detection and strain variability was observed during flooding of the river Schwarza (region A) and Danube (region B) in September 2007, indicating dispersion via watercourses.

First record of the disease vector Anopheles hyrcanus in Austria.

Anopheles (Anopheles) hyrcanus was detected for the first time in Austria, in a floodplain forest in the city of Vienna. From May to September 2012, we found 135 females of this species within the scope of a mosquito monitoring program. Anopheles hyrcanus transmits Sindbis and Tahyna viruses and was reported to be a potential vector for human malaria and dirofilariasis. An updated distribution map depicts that An. hyrcanus has extended its range northwards across the European Alps.

Tick maps on the virtual globe: First results using the example of Dermacentor reticulatus.

Digital maps, particularly displayed on virtual globes, will represent the most important source of geographical knowledge in the future. The best known of these virtual globes is Google Earth, whose use in teaching at schools and universities is now common practice. As the first result of a series of forthcoming digital tick maps, the worldwide distribution of the marsh tick Dermacentor reticulatus is shown on Google Earth. For this purpose, various distribution maps of D. reticulatus were compiled, including digitized expert maps and a map of suitable habitats compiled with a species distribution model (SDM). A random forest model that estimates suitable habitats by combining information from tick observations, bioclimatic variables, altitude, and land cover was chosen for the latter. In the Google Earth application, the following maps can be selected: a historical expert map, a current expert map, a SDM predicted habitat suitability map, a combined expert-habitat suitability map (considered to be the best representation of the current distribution of D. reticulatus), and a map of rasterized tick locations. Users can overlay these maps according to their own requirements or combine it with other Google Earth content. For example, a comparison of the historical with the current expert map shows the spread of D. reticulatus over the past few decades. Additionally, high-resolution city maps of Bilbao (Spain), Grenoble (France), Berlin (Germany), Wroclaw (Poland), Budapest (Hungary), Bucharest (Romania), and Tomsk (Russia) demonstrate the urban distribution of D. reticulatus in public parks, fallow land, and recreational areas. The Google Earth application, developed using the Keyhole Markup Language (KML), also contains fact sheets on biology, ecology, seasonal activity, and vector competence of D. reticulatus. This information has been prepared in a compact and easily understandable way for the target group, i.e. scientists from various disciplines, students, and lay people interested in the geographical distribution of ticks.

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

Untapped research opportunities in China: promising future avenues and potential concerns for aging companion animals.

Companion animals have recently been proposed as ideal translational models of human aging due to their shared susceptibility for certain diseases, similar environments, and sophisticated veterinary medicine diagnostics, all of which are not possible in rodent laboratory models. Here, we introduce and propose the study of companion animals in China as a largely untapped resource in academic and veterinary aging research. Pet ownership rates along with economic gains in the pet industry have skyrocketed over the last decade in China. Yet, the majority of research institutions still focus on agricultural animal research, not companion animals. In this perspective, we compare available pet ownership rates between the USA, the European Union, and China before focusing on the potential of companion animal aging research in China. In addition, we highlight some ethical considerations that must be addressed before large-scale companion animal aging research can be completed.

Model-based extrapolation of ecological systems under future climate scenarios: The example of Ixodes ricinus ticks.

Models can be applied to extrapolate consequences of climate change for complex ecological systems in the future. The acknowledged systems' behaviour at present is projected into the future considering climate projection data. Such an approach can be used to addresses the future activity and density of the castor bean tick Ixodes ricinus, the most widespread tick species in Europe. It is an important vector of pathogens causing Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. The population dynamics depend on several biotic and abiotic factors. Such complexity makes it difficult to predict the future dynamics and density of I. ricinus and associated health risk for humans. The objective of this study is to force ecological models with high-resolution climate projection data to extrapolate I. ricinus tick density and activity patterns into the future. We used climate projection data of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity for the period 1971-2099 from 15 different climate models. Tick activity was investigated using a climate-driven cohort-based population model. We simulated the seasonal population dynamics using climate data between 1971 and 2099 and observed weather data since 1949 at a specific location in southern Germany. We evaluated derived quantities of local tick ecology, e.g. the maximum questing activity of the nymphal stage. Furthermore, we predicted spatial density changes by extrapolating a German-wide tick density model. We compared the tick density of the reference period (1971-2000) with the counter-factual densities under the near-term scenario (2012-2041), mid-term scenario (2050-2079) and long-term scenario (2070-2099). We found that the nymphal questing peak would shift towards early seasons of the year. Also, we found high spatial heterogeneity across Germany, with predicted hotspots of up to 2,000 nymphs per 100 m2 and coldspots with constant density. As our results suggest extreme changes in tick behaviour and density, we discuss why caution is needed when extrapolating climate data-driven models into the distant future when data on future climate drive the model projection.

Performance Testing of Bacillus cereus Chromogenic Agar Media for Improved Detection in Milk and Other Food Samples.

In this study, the performance of four alternative selective chromogenic B. cereus agar was compared to the reference mannitol-yolk polymyxin (MYP) agar (ISO 7932) using inclusion and exclusion test strains (n = 110) and by analyzing naturally contaminated milk and other food samples (n = 64). Subsequently, the panC group affiliation and toxin gene profile of Bacillus cereus senso lato (s.l.) isolates were determined. Our results corroborate that the overall best performing media CHROMagar™ B. cereus (93.6% inclusivity; 82.7% exclusivity) and BACARA® (98.2% inclusivity, 62.7% exclusivity) are more sensitive and specific compared to Brilliance™ B. cereus, MYP and ChromoSelect Bacillus Agar. Both media allow unequivocal detection of B. cereus with low risks of misidentification. Media containing ß-D-glucosidase for the detection of presumptive B. cereus may form atypical colony morphologies resulting in a false negative evaluation of the sample. Naturally contaminated samples presented high numbers of background flora, while numbers of presumptive B. cereus were below the detection limit (<10 CFU g-1 or mL-1). Recovery after freezing resulted in the highest detection of B. cereus s.l. on BACARA® (57.8%), CHROMagar™ B. cereus (56.3%) and MYP agar (54.7%). The panC/toxin profile combination IV/A was the most abundant (33.0%), followed by III/F (21.7%) and VI/C (10.4%). More panC and toxin combinations were present in 15.6% of samples when reanalyzed after freezing. In order to improve detection and confirmation of B. cereus s.l. in food samples, we recommend the parallel use of two complementary selective media followed by molecular characterization (e.g., panC typing combined with toxin gene profiling). When determining psychrotolerant or thermophilic members of the B. cereus group, the selective agar media should additionally be incubated at appropriate temperatures (5 °C, ≥45 °C). If high-risk toxin genes (e.g., ces or cytK-1) are detected, the strain-specific ability to produce toxin should be examined to decisively assess risk.