Predicting serious complications in patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism using decision tree modelling: the EPIPHANY Index.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to develop a prognostic stratification tool that enables patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE), whether incidental or symptomatic, to be classified according to the risk of serious complications within 15 days. METHODS: The sample comprised cases from a national registry of pulmonary thromboembolism in patients with cancer (1075 patients from 14 Spanish centres). Diagnosis was incidental in 53.5% of the events in this registry. The Exhaustive CHAID analysis was applied with 10-fold cross-validation to predict development of serious complications following PE diagnosis. RESULTS: About 208 patients (19.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 17.1-21.8%) developed a serious complication after PE diagnosis. The 15-day mortality rate was 10.1%, (95% CI, 8.4-12.1%). The decision tree detected six explanatory covariates: Hestia-like clinical decision rule (any risk criterion present vs none), Eastern Cooperative Group performance scale (ECOG-PS; <2 vs ⩾2), O2 saturation (<90 vs ⩾90%), presence of PE-specific symptoms, tumour response (progression, unknown, or not evaluated vs others), and primary tumour resection. Three risk classes were created (low, intermediate, and high risk). The risk of serious complications within 15 days increases according to the group: 1.6, 9.4, 30.6%; P<0.0001. Fifteen-day mortality rates also rise progressively in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients: 0.3, 6.1, and 17.1%; P<0.0001. The cross-validated risk estimate is 0.191 (s.e.=0.012). The optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.779 (95% CI, 0.717-0.840). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and internally validated a prognostic index to predict serious complications with the potential to impact decision-making in patients with cancer and PE.

Prognostic value of computed tomography in acute pulmonary thromboembolism. / Valor pronóstico de la tomografía computarizada en la tromboembolia pulmonar aguda.

In addition to being the standard reference for the diagnosis of acute pulmonary thromboembolism, CT angiography of the pulmonary arteries can also provide valuable information about the patient's prognosis. Although which imaging findings are useful for prognosis remains controversial, signs of right ventricular dysfunction on CT are now included in clinical algorithms for the management of pulmonary thromboembolism. However, the optimal method for obtaining these measurements while maintaining a balance between the ease of use necessary to include their evaluation in our daily activity and the loss of precision in its predictive capacity remains to be determined. Moreover, other variables associated with pulmonary thromboembolism that often go unobserved can complement the prognostic information we can offer to clinicians. This review aims to clarify some of the more controversial aspects related to the prognostic value of CT in patients with pulmonary embolisms according to the available evidence. Knowing which variables are becoming more important in the prognosis, how to detect them, and why it is important to include them in our reports will help improve the management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

The prognostic impact of additional intrathoracic findings in patients with cancer-related pulmonary embolism.

AIM: To assess the prevalence and prognostic significance of additional intrathoracic findings (AIFs) in patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE). AIFs were considered alterations other than the characteristic ones intrinsic to PE or changes in cardiovascular morphology. METHODS: Subjects have been taken from a Spanish national multidisciplinary and multicenter study of PE and cancer who were treated between 2004 and 2015. The endpoint was the appearance of serious complications or death within 15 days. RESULTS: The registry contains 1024 eligible patients; 41% diagnosed by computed tomography pulmonary angiography versus 59% by non-angiographic CT. Serious complications occurred within 15 days in 18.9%, [95% confidence interval (CI), 16.6-21.4%] and 9.5% (95% CI 7.9-11.5%) died. At least one AIF was seen in 72.6%. The most common AIFs were as follows: pulmonary nodules (30.9%), pleural effusion (30.2%), tumor progression (28.3%), atelectasis (19.0%), pulmonary infarct (15.2%), emphysema (13.4%), pulmonary lymphangitic carcinomatosis (4.5%), and pneumonia (6.1%). Patients with AIF exhibited a higher complication rate at 15 days: 21.9% versus 13.0%, odds ratio (OR) 1.8 (95% CI 1.2-2.8), P = 0.03, and 15-day mortality: 15.0% versus 7.3%, OR 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.2), P = 0.020. Patients with pneumonia, pneumothorax, pulmonary edema, pulmonary nodules, tumor progression, pulmonary fibrosis, and pleural effusion showed an excess of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Additional intrathoracic findings are highly prevalent and significantly impact prognosis in patients with PE and cancer, making them germane to the classification of this population.

Chronic opioid therapy in long-term cancer survivors.

PURPOSE: Long-term cancer survivors develop special health issues and specific needs. Chronic pain, whether the consequence of their cancer or as a side effect of treatment, is one of their most prevalent concerns. METHODS: We conducted a review of the English-language literature on long-term cancer survivorship and chronic opioid therapy, with the objective of determining the efficacy, safety and tolerability in this group of patients. Practical management recommendations are made on the basis of this review. RESULTS: Pain syndromes encountered in the long-term cancer survivors are diverse. Opioid receptor pathways possess complex and pleiotropic functions and continuous over-activation may lead to de novo endocrinopathies, immunosuppression, neurocognitive impairment, or cell cycle disturbances with potential clinical connotations. However, there are insufficient data to support evidence-based decision making with respect to patient selection, doses, administration, monitoring and follow-up. Data about long-term treatment effectiveness and safety are limited and often aggravated by the overlapping of several diseases prevalent among long-term cancer survivors, as well as chronic opiate-induced toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic opioid therapy is frequent in long-term cancer survivors, and may negatively affect the immune system, and produce health problems such as endocrinopathies, osteoporosis, neurological or cardiopulmonary effects, alterations of cell cycle kinetics, abuse and addiction. This review highlights the need for specialized teams to treat chronic pain in long-term cancer survivors from an integrative perspective.

CT scan prior to radiotherapy in unresectable, locally advanced, non-small cell carcinoma of the lung: is it always necessary?

PURPOSE: There is broad consensus regarding evaluating response to chemotherapy (CHT) by means of computerized tomography (CT) in patients with localized or locally advanced non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). We present a study comparing the usefulness of CT versus chest X-ray (XR) and clinical findings when indicating radiotherapy (RT) following CHT. METHODS: Ninety-eight of 150 subjects with unresectable locally advanced NSCLC were blindly and independently evaluated by XR and CT, with pairs of chest XR and CT (before and after CHT). A null hypothesis (H0) was established of the conditioned probability of detecting progression by CT and not by XR of 10 % or more, with a statistical power of 80 %. RESULTS: Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of XR versus CT were 98, 89, 99, and 80 % respectively. A 4 % (p = 0.0451) probability of improvement of CT versus XR was calculated, enabling the H0 to be ruled out. CONCLUSION: The CT failed to prove to be significantly superior to the chest XR + clinical picture in indicating a change in treatment approach in patients with unresectable locally advanced NSCLC after CHT.

On the necessity of new decision-making methods for cancer-associated, symptomatic, pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) varies in its clinical manifestations in patients with cancer and entails specific issues. The objective is to assess the performance of five scores (PESI, sPESI, GPS, POMPE, and RIETE) and a clinical decision rule to predict 30-day mortality. METHODS: This is an ambispective, observational, multicenter study that collected episodes of PE in patients with cancer from 13 Spanish centers. The main criterion for comparing scales was the c-indices and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the models for predicting 30-day mortality. RESULTS: 585 patients with acute symptomatic PE were recruited. The 30-day mortality rate was 21.3 (95% CI; 18.2-24.8%). The specific scales (POMPE-C and RIETE) were equally effective in discriminating prognosis (c-index of 0.775 and 0.757, respectively). None of these best performing scales was superior to the ECOG-PS with a c-index of 0.724. The remaining scores (PESI, sPESI, and GPS) performed worse, with c-indexes of 0.719, 0.705, and 0.722, respectively. The dichotomic "clinical decision rule" for ambulatory therapy was at least equally reliable in defining a low risk group: in the absence of all exclusion criteria, 30-day mortality was 2%, compared to 5% and 4% in the POMPE-C and RIETE low-risk categories, respectively. CONCLUSION: The accuracy of the five scales examined was not high enough to rely on to predict 30-day mortality and none of them contribute significantly to qualitative clinical judgment.