Factors predictive of serious infections over time in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: data from a multi-ethnic, multi-national, Latin American lupus cohort.

AIM: The aim of this study was to identify factors predictive of serious infections over time in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: A multi-ethnic, multi-national Latin American SLE cohort was studied. Serious infection was defined as one that required hospitalization, occurred during a hospitalization or led to death. Potential predictors included were sociodemographic factors, clinical manifestations (per organ involved, lymphopenia and leukopenia, independently) and previous infections at baseline. Disease activity (SLEDAI), damage (SLICC/ACR Damage Index), non-serious infections, glucocorticoids, antimalarials (users and non-users), and immunosuppressive drugs use; the last six variables were examined as time-dependent covariates. Cox regression models were used to evaluate the predictors of serious infections using a backward elimination procedure. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of the 1243 patients included, 1116 (89.8%) were female. The median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis and follow-up time were 27 (20-37) years and 47.8 (17.9-68.6) months, respectively. The incidence rate of serious infections was 3.8 cases per 100 person-years. Antimalarial use (hazard ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.48-0.99; p = 0.0440) was protective, while doses of prednisone >15 and ≤60 mg/day (hazard ratio: 4.18; 95 %CI: 1.69-10.31; p = 0.0019) and >60 mg/day (hazard ratio: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.35-16.49; p = 0.0153), use of methylprednisolone pulses (hazard ratio: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.10-2.13; p = 0.0124), increase in disease activity (hazard ratio: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.04; p = 0.0016) and damage accrual (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.11-1.34; p < 0.0001) were predictive factors of serious infections. CONCLUSIONS: Over time, prednisone doses higher than 15 mg/day, use of methylprednisolone pulses, increase in disease activity and damage accrual were predictive of infections, whereas antimalarial use was protective against them in SLE patients.

Predictive factors of flares in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: data from a multiethnic Latin American cohort.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine the factors predictive of flares in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Methods A case-control study nested within the Grupo Latino Americano De Estudio de Lupus (GLADEL) cohort was conducted. Flare was defined as an increase ≥4 points in the SLEDAI. Cases were defined as patients with at least one flare. Controls were selected by matching cases by length of follow-up. Demographic and clinical manifestations were systematically recorded by a common protocol. Glucocorticoid use was recorded as average daily dose of prednisone and antimalarial use as percentage of time on antimalarial and categorized as never (0%), rarely (>0-25%), occasionally (>25%-50%), commonly (˃50%-75%) and frequently (˃75%). Immunosuppressive drugs were recorded as used or not used. The association between demographic, clinical manifestations, therapy and flares was examined using univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Results A total of 465 cases and controls were included. Mean age at diagnosis among cases and controls was 27.5 vs 29.9 years, p = 0.003; gender and ethnic distributions were comparable among both groups and so was the baseline SLEDAI. Independent factors protective of flares identified by multivariable analysis were older age at diagnosis (OR = 0.929 per every five years, 95% CI 0.869-0.975; p = 0.004) and antimalarial use (frequently vs never, OR = 0.722, 95% CI 0.522-0.998; p = 0.049) whereas azathioprine use (OR = 1.820, 95% CI 1.309-2.531; p < 0.001) and SLEDAI post-baseline were predictive of them (OR = 1.034, 95% CI 1.005-1.064; p = 0.022). Conclusions In this large, longitudinal Latin American cohort, older age at diagnosis and more frequent antimalarial use were protective whereas azathioprine use and higher disease activity were predictive of flares.

Early discoid lupus erythematosus protects against renal disease in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: longitudinal data from a large Latin American cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to examine whether early discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE) would be a protective factor for further lupus nephritis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We studied SLE patients from GLADEL, an inception longitudinal cohort from nine Latin American countries. The main predictor was DLE onset, which was defined as physician-documented DLE at SLE diagnosis. The outcome was time from the diagnosis of SLE to new lupus nephritis. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted to examine the association of DLE onset with time to lupus nephritis. RESULTS: Among 845 GLADEL patients, 204 (24.1%) developed lupus nephritis after SLE diagnosis. Of them, 10 (4.9%) had DLE onset, compared to 83 (12.9%) in the group of 641 patients that remained free of lupus nephritis (hazard ratio 0.39; P = 0.0033). The cumulative proportion of lupus nephritis at 1 and 5 years since SLE diagnosis was 6% and 14%, respectively, in the DLE onset group, compared to 14% and 29% in those without DLE (P = 0.0023). DLE onset was independently associated with a lower risk of lupus nephritis, after controlling for sociodemographic factors and disease severity at diagnosis (hazard ratio 0.38; 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that DLE onset reduces the risk of further lupus nephritis in patients with SLE, independently of other factors such as age, ethnicity, disease activity, and organ damage. These findings have relevant prognosis implications for SLE patients and their clinicians. Further studies are warranted to unravel the biological and environmental pathways associated with the protective role of DLE against renal disease in patients with SLE.

Late-onset systemic lupus erythematosus in Latin Americans: a distinct subgroup?

OBJECTIVE: To examine the characteristics of patients who developed late onset systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the GLADEL (Grupo Latino Americano de Estudio del Lupus) cohort of patients with SLE. METHODS: Patients with SLE of less than two years of disease duration, seen at 34 centers of nine Latin American countries, were included. Late-onset was defined as >50 years of age at time of first SLE-related symptom. Clinical and laboratory manifestations, activity index (SLEDAI), and damage index (SLICC/ACR- DI) were ascertained at time of entry and during the course (cumulative incidence). Features were compared between the two patient groups (<50 and ≥50) using descriptive statistics and hypothesis tests. Logistic regression was performed to examine the association of late-onset lupus, adjusting for other variables. RESULTS: Of the 1480 patients included, 102 patients (6.9 %) had late-onset SLE, 87% of which were female. Patients with late-onset SLE had a shorter follow-up (3.6 vs. 4.4 years, p < 0.002) and a longer time to diagnosis (10.1 vs. 5.8 months, p < 0.001) compared to the younger onset group. Malar rash, photosensitivity, and renal involvement were less prevalent while interstitial lung disease, pleural effusions, and sicca symptoms were more frequent in the older age group (p > 0.05). In multivariable analysis, late onset was independently associated with higher odds of ocular (OR = 3.66, 95% CI = 2.15-6.23), pulmonary (OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.01-4.11), and cardiovascular (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.04-2.98) involvement and lower odds of cutaneous involvement (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.21-0.80), number of cumulative SLE criteria (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64-0.97), use of cyclophosphamide (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.24-0.95), and anti-RNP antibodies (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.20-0.91). A Cox regression model revealed a higher risk of dying in older onset than the younger-onset SLE (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.2-5.6). CONCLUSION: Late-onset SLE in Latin Americans had a distinct disease expression compared to the younger-onset group. The disease seems to be mild with lower cumulative SLE criteria, reduced renal/mucocutaneous involvements, and less use of cyclophosphamide. Nevertheless, these patients have a higher risk of death and of ocular, pulmonary, and cardiovascular involvements.