Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction.

The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid impact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil-occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global dinosaur habitats. Conversely, long-term forcing from Deccan volcanism (carbon dioxide [CO2]-induced warming) leads to increased habitat suitability. Short-term (aerosol cooling) volcanism still allows equatorial habitability. These results support the asteroid impact as the main driver of the non-avian dinosaur extinction. By contrast, induced warming from volcanism mitigated the most extreme effects of asteroid impact, potentially reducing the extinction severity.

Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in dinosaurs.

A fundamental question in dinosaur evolution is how they adapted to long-term climatic shifts during the Mesozoic and when they developed environmentally independent, avian-style acclimatization, becoming endothermic.1,2 The ability of warm-blooded dinosaurs to flourish in harsher environments, including cold, high-latitude regions,3,4 raises intriguing questions about the origins of key innovations shared with modern birds,5,6 indicating that the development of homeothermy (keeping constant body temperature) and endothermy (generating body heat) played a crucial role in their ecological diversification.7 Despite substantial evidence across scientific disciplines (anatomy,8 reproduction,9 energetics,10 biomechanics,10 osteohistology,11 palaeobiogeography,12 geochemistry,13,14 and soft tissues15,16,17), a consensus on dinosaur thermophysiology remains elusive.1,12,15,17,18,19 Differential thermophysiological strategies among terrestrial tetrapods allow endotherms (birds and mammals) to expand their latitudinal range (from the tropics to polar regions), owing to their reduced reliance on environmental temperature.20 By contrast, most reptilian lineages (squamates, turtles, and crocodilians) and amphibians are predominantly constrained by temperature in regions closer to the tropics.21 Determining when this macroecological pattern emerged in the avian lineage relies heavily on identifying the origin of these key physiological traits. Combining fossils with macroevolutionary and palaeoclimatic models, we unveil distinct evolutionary pathways in the main dinosaur lineages: ornithischians and theropods diversified across broader climatic landscapes, trending toward cooler niches. An Early Jurassic shift to colder climates in Theropoda suggests an early adoption of endothermy. Conversely, sauropodomorphs exhibited prolonged climatic conservatism associated with higher thermal conditions, emphasizing temperature, rather than plant productivity, as the primary driver of this pattern, suggesting poikilothermy with a stronger dependence on higher temperatures in sauropods.

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world.

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.

Climatic constraints on the biogeographic history of Mesozoic dinosaurs.

Dinosaurs dominated Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems globally. However, whereas a pole-to-pole geographic distribution characterized ornithischians and theropods, sauropods were restricted to lower latitudes. Here, we evaluate the role of climate in shaping these biogeographic patterns through the Jurassic-Cretaceous (201-66 mya), combining dinosaur fossil occurrences, past climate data from Earth System models, and habitat suitability modeling. Results show that, uniquely among dinosaurs, sauropods occupied climatic niches characterized by high temperatures and strongly bounded by minimum cold temperatures. This constrained the distribution and dispersal pathways of sauropods to tropical areas, excluding them from latitudinal extremes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The greater availability of suitable habitat in the southern continents, particularly in the Late Cretaceous, might be key to explaining the high diversity of sauropods there, relative to northern landmasses. Given that ornithischians and theropods show a flattened or bimodal latitudinal biodiversity gradient, with peaks at higher latitudes, the closer correspondence of sauropods to a subtropical concentration could hint at fundamental thermophysiological differences to the other two clades.

Shifts in food webs and niche stability shaped survivorship and extinction at the end-Cretaceous.

It has long been debated why groups such as non-avian dinosaurs became extinct whereas mammals and other lineages survived the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction 66 million years ago. We used Markov networks, ecological niche partitioning, and Earth System models to reconstruct North American food webs and simulate ecospace occupancy before and after the extinction event. We find a shift in latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas, as medium-sized species counterbalanced a loss of megaherbivores, but dinosaur niches were otherwise stable and static, potentially contributing to their demise. Smaller vertebrates, including mammals, followed a consistent trajectory of increasing trophic impact and relaxation of niche limits beginning in the latest Cretaceous and continuing after the mass extinction. Mammals did not simply proliferate after the extinction event; rather, their earlier ecological diversification might have helped them survive.

An Italian dinosaur Lagerstätte reveals the tempo and mode of hadrosauriform body size evolution.

During the latest Cretaceous, the European Archipelago was characterized by highly fragmented landmasses hosting putative dwarfed, insular dinosaurs, claimed as fossil evidence of the "island rule". The Villaggio del Pescatore quarry (north-eastern Italy) stands as the most informative locality within the palaeo-Mediterranean region and represents the first, multi-individual Konservat-Lagerstätte type dinosaur-bearing locality in Italy. The site is here critically re-evaluated as early Campanian in age, thus preceding the final fragmentation stages of the European Archipelago, including all other European localities preserving hypothesized dwarfed taxa. New skeletal remains allowed osteohistological analyses on the hadrosauroid Tethyshadros insularis indicating subadult features in the type specimen whereas a second, herein newly described, larger individual is likely somatically mature. A phylogenetic comparative framework places the body-size of T. insularis in range with other non-hadrosaurid Eurasian hadrosauroids, rejecting any significant evolutionary trend towards miniaturisation in this clade, confuting its 'pygmy' status, and providing unmatched data to infer environmentally-driven body-size trends in Mesozoic dinosaurs.

The first juvenile dromaeosaurid (Dinosauria: Theropoda) from Arctic Alaska.

Compared to the osteological record of herbivorous dinosaurs from the Late Cretaceous Prince Creek Formation of northern Alaska, there are relatively fewer remains of theropods. The theropod record from this unit is mostly comprised of isolated teeth, and the only non-dental remains known can be attributed to the troodontid cf. Troodon and the tyrannosaurid Nanuqsaurus. Thus far, the presence of members of Dromaeosauridae has been limited to isolated teeth. Here we describe a symphyseal portion of a small dentary with two ziphodont teeth. Based on tooth shape, denticle morphology, and the position of the Meckelian groove, we attribute this partial dentary to a saurornitholestine dromaeosaurid. The fibrous bone surface, small size, and higher number of mesial denticles compared to distal ones point to a juvenile growth stage for this individual. Multivariate comparison of theropod teeth morphospace by means of principal component analysis reveals an overlap between this dentary and Saurornitholestinae dromaeosaurid morphospace, a result supported by phylogenetic analyses. This is the first confirmed non-dental fossil specimen from a member of Dromaeosauridae in the Arctic, expanding on the role of Beringia as a dispersal route for this clade between Asia and North America. Furthermore, the juvenile nature of this individual adds to a growing body of data that suggests Cretaceous Arctic dinosaurs of Alaska did not undergo long-distance migration, but rather they were year-round residents of these paleopolar latitudes.

Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction.

In the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, dinosaur diversity is argued to have been either in long-term decline, or thriving until their sudden demise. The latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian [83-66 Ma]) of North America provides the best record to address this debate, but even here diversity reconstructions are biased by uneven sampling. Here we combine fossil occurrences with climatic and environmental modelling to quantify latest Cretaceous North American dinosaur habitat. Ecological niche modelling shows a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian habitability decrease in areas with present-day rock-outcrop. However, a continent-wide projection demonstrates habitat stability, or even a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian increase, that is not preserved. This reduction of the spatial sampling window resulted from formation of the proto-Rocky Mountains and sea-level regression. We suggest that Maastrichtian North American dinosaur diversity is therefore likely to be underestimated, with the apparent decline a product of sampling bias, and not due to a climatically-driven decrease in habitability as previously hypothesised.

How has our knowledge of dinosaur diversity through geologic time changed through research history?

Assessments of dinosaur macroevolution at any given time can be biased by the historical publication record. Recent studies have analysed patterns in dinosaur diversity that are based on secular variations in the numbers of published taxa. Many of these have employed a range of approaches that account for changes in the shape of the taxonomic abundance curve, which are largely dependent on databases compiled from the primary published literature. However, how these 'corrected' diversity patterns are influenced by the history of publication remains largely unknown. Here, we investigate the influence of publication history between 1991 and 2015 on our understanding of dinosaur evolution using raw diversity estimates and shareholder quorum subsampling for the three major subgroups: Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda. We find that, while sampling generally improves through time, there remain periods and regions in dinosaur evolutionary history where diversity estimates are highly volatile (e.g. the latest Jurassic of Europe, the mid-Cretaceous of North America, and the Late Cretaceous of South America). Our results show that historical changes in database compilation can often substantially influence our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. 'Global' estimates of diversity based on the fossil record are often also based on incomplete, and distinct regional signals, each subject to their own sampling history. Changes in the record of taxon abundance distribution, either through discovery of new taxa or addition of existing taxa to improve sampling evenness, are important in improving the reliability of our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. Furthermore, the number of occurrences and newly identified dinosaurs is still rapidly increasing through time, suggesting that it is entirely possible for much of what we know about dinosaurs at the present to change within the next 20 years.

A large abelisaurid (Dinosauria, Theropoda) from Morocco and comments on the Cenomanian theropods from North Africa.

We describe the partially preserved femur of a large-bodied theropod dinosaur from the Cenomanian "Kem Kem Compound Assemblage" (KKCA) of Morocco. The fossil is housed in the Museo Geologico e Paleontologico "Gaetano Giorgio Gemmellaro" in Palermo (Italy). The specimen is compared with the theropod fossil record from the KKCA and coeval assemblages from North Africa. The combination of a distally reclined head, a not prominent trochanteric shelf, distally placed lesser trochanter of stout, alariform shape, a stocky shaft with the fourth trochanter placed proximally, and rugose muscular insertion areas in the specimen distinguishes it from Carcharodontosaurus, Deltadromeus and Spinosaurus and supports referral to an abelisaurid. The estimated body size for the individual from which this femur was derived is comparable to Carnotaurus and Ekrixinatosaurus (up to 9 meters in length and 2 tons in body mass). This find confirms that abelisaurids had reached their largest body size in the "middle Cretaceous," and that large abelisaurids coexisted with other giant theropods in Africa. We review the taxonomic status of the theropods from the Cenomanian of North Africa, and provisionally restrict the Linnean binomina Carcharodontosaurus iguidensis and Spinosaurus aegyptiacus to the type specimens. Based on comparisons among the theropod records from the Aptian-Cenomanian of South America and Africa, a partial explanation for the so-called "Stromer's riddle" (namely, the coexistence of many large predatory dinosaurs in the "middle Cretaceous" record from North Africa) is offered in term of taphonomic artifacts among lineage records that were ecologically and environmentally non-overlapping. Although morphofunctional and stratigraphic evidence supports an ecological segregation between spinosaurids and the other lineages, the co-occurrence of abelisaurids and carcharodontosaurids, two groups showing several craniodental convergences that suggest direct resource competition, remains to be explained.