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1.
Sex Transm Dis ; 2024 May 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38709026

RESUMEN

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the proportion of patients with trichomoniasis and chlamydial infections who received recommended versus non-recommended antibiotic therapy after the updated 2021 Sexually Transmitted Infections Guideline. Of 712 patients, 473 (66%) received recommended therapy. Receipt of emergency department care was independently associated with recommended therapy (adjOR, 2.1; 95% CI 1.5-2.9).

2.
Liver Transpl ; 26(1): 100-112, 2020 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31742878

RESUMEN

Biliary complications (strictures and leaks) represent major limitations in living donor liver transplantation. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are a promising modality to prevent biliary complications because of immunosuppressive and angiogenic properties. Our goal was to evaluate the safety of adipose-derived MSC delivery to biliary anastomoses in a porcine model. Secondary objectives were defining the optimal method of delivery (intraluminal versus extraluminal) and to investigate MSC engraftment, angiogenesis, and fibrosis. Pigs were divided into 3 groups. Animals underwent adipose collection, MSC isolation, and expansion. Two weeks later, animals underwent bile duct transection, reanastomosis, and stent insertion. Group 1 received plastic stents wrapped in unseeded Vicryl mesh. Group 2 received stents wrapped in MSC-seeded mesh. Group 3 received unwrapped stents with the anastomosis immersed in an MSC suspension. Animals were killed 1 month after stent insertion when cholangiograms and biliary tissue were obtained. Serum was collected for liver biochemistries. Tissue was used for hematoxylin-eosin and trichrome staining and immunohistochemistry for MSC markers (CD44 and CD34) and for a marker of neoangiogenesis (CD31). There were no intraoperative complications. One pig died on postoperative day 3 due to acute cholangitis. All others recovered without complications. Cholangiography demonstrated no biliary leaks and minimal luminal narrowing. Surviving animals exhibited no symptoms, abnormal liver biochemistries, or clinically significant biliary stricturing. Group 3 showed significantly greater CD44 and CD34 staining, indicating MSC engraftment. Fibrosis was reduced at the anastomotic site in group 3 based on trichrome stain. CD31 staining of group 3 was more pronounced, supporting enhanced neoangiogenesis. In conclusion, adipose-derived MSCs were safely applied to biliary anastomoses. MSCs were locally engrafted within the bile duct and may have beneficial effects in terms of fibrosis and angiogenesis.


Asunto(s)
Trasplante de Hígado , Células Madre Mesenquimatosas , Animales , Conductos Biliares/cirugía , Humanos , Inmersión , Donadores Vivos , Complicaciones Posoperatorias , Stents , Porcinos
3.
Pharm Res ; 35(8): 155, 2018 Jun 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29869098

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Cell migration/invasion assays are widely used in commercial drug discovery screening. 3D printing enables the creation of diverse geometric restrictive barrier designs for use in cell motility studies, permitting on-demand assays. Here, the utility of 3D printed cell exclusion spacers (CES) was validated as a cell motility assay. METHODS: A novel CES fit was fabricated using 3D printing and customized to the size and contour of 12 cell culture plates including 6 well plates of basal human brain vascular endothelial (D3) cell migration cells compared with 6 well plates with D3 cells challenged with 1uM cytochalasin D (Cyto-D), an F-actin anti-motility drug. Control and Cyto-D treated cells were monitored over 3 days under optical microscopy. RESULTS: Day 3 cell migration distance for untreated D3 cells was 1515.943µm ± 10.346µm compared to 356.909µm ± 38.562µm for the Cyt-D treated D3 cells (p < 0.0001). By day 3, untreated D3 cells reached confluency and completely filled the original voided spacer regions, while the Cyt-D treated D3 cells remained significantly less motile. CONCLUSIONS: Cell migration distances were significantly reduced by Cyto-D, supporting the use of 3D printing for cell exclusion assays. 3D printed CES have great potential for studying cell motility, migration/invasion, and complex multi-cell interactions.


Asunto(s)
Técnicas de Cultivo de Célula/instrumentación , Ensayos de Migración Celular/instrumentación , Células Endoteliales/citología , Impresión Tridimensional , Encéfalo/citología , Línea Celular , Movimiento Celular , Diseño de Equipo , Humanos , Técnicas de Cultivo de Tejidos/instrumentación
4.
J Oral Maxillofac Surg ; 76(7): 1562.e1-1562.e5, 2018 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29679585

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: After cleft lip and palate surgical procedures, patients often need nostril supports to help the reconstructed nostrils retain their shape during healing. Many postoperative nasal stents use a one-size-fits-all approach, in which a standard rubber tube retainer is trimmed and used to support the healing nares. The purpose of this study was to examine photogrammetry and 3-dimensional (3D) printing as a fabrication tool for postoperative patient-specific nasal supports that can be loaded with bioactive agents for localized delivery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A "normal" right nostril injection mold was prepared from a left-sided unilateral cleft defect, and the negative-space impression was modeled using a series of photographs taken at different rotation angles with a commercial mobile phone camera. These images were "stitched" together using photogrammetry software, and the computer-generated models were reflected, joined, and digitally sculpted to generate hollow bilateral supports. Three-dimensional prints were coated with polyvinylpyrrolidone-penicillin and validated for their ability to inhibit Escherichia coli using human blood agar diffusion assays. RESULTS: The results showed that our approach had a high level of contour replication and the antibiotic coating was able to inhibit bacterial growth with a mean zone of inhibition of 15.15 ± 0.99 mm (n = 9) (P < .0001) in disc diffusion assays. CONCLUSIONS: Consumer-grade 3D printing displays potential as a fabrication method for postoperative cleft bilateral nasal supports and may support the surgically reconstructed internal contours. The results of this study suggest that such types of bioactive 3D prints may have potential applications in personalized drug-delivery systems and medical devices.


Asunto(s)
Labio Leporino/cirugía , Fisura del Paladar/cirugía , Stents Liberadores de Fármacos , Rinoplastia/métodos , Antibacterianos/administración & dosificación , Escherichia coli/efectos de los fármacos , Humanos , Modelos Anatómicos , Penicilinas/administración & dosificación , Excipientes Farmacéuticos/administración & dosificación , Fotogrametría , Povidona/administración & dosificación , Impresión Tridimensional , Diseño de Prótesis
5.
N Engl J Med ; 380(20): 1981-1982, 2019 05 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31091396

Asunto(s)
Organoides , Humanos
6.
Nanotechnology ; 28(36): 365704, 2017 Sep 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28604369

RESUMEN

Despite the strong interest in optoelectronic devices working in the deep ultraviolet range, no suitable low cost, large-area, high-quality AlN substrates have been available up to now. The aim of this work is the selective area growth of AlN nanocolumns by plasma assisted molecular beam epitaxy on polar (0001) and semi-polar (11-22) GaN/sapphire templates. The resulting AlN nanocolumns are vertically oriented with semi-polar {1-103} top facets when grown on (0001) GaN/sapphire, or oriented at 58° from the template normal and exposing {1-100} non-polar top facets when growing on (11-22) GaN/sapphire, in both cases reaching filling factors ≥80%. In these kinds of arrays each nanostructure could function as a building block for an individual nano-device or, due to the large filling factor values, the overall array top surfaces could be seen as a quasi (semi-polar or non-polar) AlN pseudo-template.

7.
Inj Prev ; 27(6): 592-593, 2021 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33402354
8.
Nano Lett ; 15(8): 5105-9, 2015 Aug 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26225541

RESUMEN

Selective area growth has been applied to fabricate a homogeneous array of GaN nanocolumns (NC) with high crystal quality. The structural and optical properties of single NCs have been investigated at the nanometer-scale by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and highly spatially resolved cathodoluminescence (CL) spectroscopy performed in a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) at liquid helium temperatures. TEM cross-section analysis reveals excellent structural properties of the GaN NCs. Sporadically, isolated basal plane stacking faults (BSF) can be found resulting in a remarkably low BSF density in the almost entire NC ensemble. Both, defect-free NCs and NCs with few BSFs have been investigated. The low defect density within the NCs allows the characterization of individual BSFs, which is of high interest for studying their optical properties. Direct nanometer-scale correlation of the CL and STEM data clearly exhibits a spatial correlation of the emission at 360.6 nm (3.438 eV) with the location of basal plane stacking faults of type I1.

9.
Lifetime Data Anal ; 22(3): 405-28, 2016 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26307336

RESUMEN

Degradation tests are especially difficult to conduct for items with high reliability. Test costs, caused mainly by prolonged item duration and item destruction costs, establish the necessity of sequential degradation test designs. We propose a methodology that sequentially selects the optimal observation times to measure the degradation, using a convenient rule that maximizes the inference precision and minimizes test costs. In particular our objective is to estimate a quantile of the time to failure distribution, where the degradation process is modelled as a linear model using Bayesian inference. The proposed sequential analysis is based on an index that measures the expected discrepancy between the estimated quantile and its corresponding prediction, using Monte Carlo methods. The procedure was successfully implemented for simulated and real data.


Asunto(s)
Teorema de Bayes , Modelos Lineales , Método de Montecarlo , Humanos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados
11.
Top Stroke Rehabil ; : 1-10, 2024 May 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38785263

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: When pedaling a coupled-crank arm ergometer, individuals with hemiplegia may experience nonparetic arm overcompensation, and paretic arm resistance, due to neuromechanical deficits. Technologies that foster independent limb contributions may increase the effectiveness of exercise for people poststroke. OBJECTIVE: Examine the speed during uncoupled pedaling with the Advanced Virtual Exercise Environment Device among individuals poststroke and non-impaired comparisons. METHODS: We recruited 2 groups:Poststroke and Comparison. Participants attended one lab session and performed peak speed tests and a graded exercise repeated for bilateral pedaling, unilateral (left, right). RESULTS: Thirty-one participants completed the protocol (16 women, 15 men). Poststroke participants pedaled slower during the bilateral speed test (64 ± 39 RPM, p < .001), and graded exercise, (54 ± 28 RPM, p < .001) versus comparisons (141 ± 19, 104 ± 12 RPM). Poststroke individuals had lower peak RPM during the unilateral speed test with their paretic arm (70 ± 46 RPM, p < .001) and graded exercise (58 ± 33 RPM, p < .001) compared to their unilateral speed test (130 ± 37 RPM) and graded exercise (108 ± 25 RPM) with their nonparetic arm. Comparisons did not differ between arms during speed tests and graded exercise. Poststroke participants demonstrated lower peak speed with their affected arm during the bilateral speed test (52 ± 42 RPM, p < .001) and graded exercise (49 ± 28 RPM, p = .008) compared to the same arm during unilateral speed (70 ± 46 RPM) and graded exercise (58 ± 33 RPM). CONCLUSIONS: Poststroke participants pedaled faster with their affected arm unilaterally versus bilateral pedaling, suggesting interhemispheric interference that reduces the ability to recruit the paretic arm during bilateral exercise.

12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38842372

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Exposure to hypoxia immediately challenges a variety of physiologic systems that limit exercise capacity. Under normoxia, caffeine (CAFF) increases ventilation and subsequent oxygenation of hemoglobin (SpO2) and skeletal muscle (SmO2). CAFF improves exercise performance at altitude. However, little attention has been given to submaximal exercise in hypoxia, particularly regarding low CAFF consumers and female participants. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of CAFF on pulmonary, metabolic, and perceptual variables in response to submaximal running in hypoxia in low CAFF consuming males and females. METHODS: In a double blinded, counterbalanced design, 14 (6 females) individuals (24.1±5.1 years; VO2max: 40.6±5.6 mL × kg-1 × min-1; 20.8±8.0% body fat), who habitually consumed ≤150 mg/day of CAFF performed treadmill running at workloads of 25%, 40%, 60%, and 75% of sea level VO2max in normobaric hypoxia (FIO2=0.15) on two separate occasions: 1) 60 minutes after 6 mg/kg of CAFF; or 2) placebo. RESULTS: CAFF had no effect on any variable measured. Specifically, VE (condition: P=0.12; interaction: P=0.19), VT (condition: P=0.16; interaction: P=0.57), and Ve:VO2 (condition: P=0.07; interaction: P=0.69) were similar between groups. Further, CAFF had no effect on relative VO2 (condition: P=0.84; interaction: P=0.95), HR (condition: P=0.28; interaction: P=0.35), SmO2 (condition: P=0.66; interaction: P=0.82), or SpO2 (condition: P=0.16; interaction: P=0.97). Finally, rating of perceived exertion (RPE; P=0.92) and acute mountain sickness scores (P=0.29) were similar across conditions. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that CAFF provides no physiologic advantage to submaximal exercise in acute, normobaric hypoxia with low CAFF consuming males and females.

13.
Microb Physiol ; 33(1): 49-62, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37321192

RESUMEN

Members of the Piezo family of mechanically activated cation channels are involved in multiple physiological processes in higher eukaryotes, including vascular development, cell differentiation, touch perception, hearing, and more, but they are also common in single-celled eukaryotic microorganisms. Mutations in these proteins in humans are associated with a variety of diseases, such as colorectal adenomatous polyposis, dehydrated hereditary stomatocytosis, and hereditary xerocytosis. Available 3D structures for Piezo proteins show nine regions of four transmembrane segments each that have the same fold. Despite the remarkable similarity among the nine characteristic structural repeats in the family, no significant sequence similarity among them has been reported. Using bioinformatics approaches and the Transporter Classification Database (TCDB) as reference, we reliably identified sequence similarity among repeats based on four lines of evidence: (1) hidden Markov model-profile similarities across repeats at the family level, (2) pairwise sequence similarities between different repeats across Piezo homologs, (3) Piezo-specific conserved sequence signatures that consistently identify the same regions across repeats, and (4) conserved residues that maintain the same orientation and location in 3D space.


Asunto(s)
Toxinas Bacterianas , Clostridioides difficile , Humanos , Clostridioides difficile/metabolismo , Canales Iónicos/genética , Canales Iónicos/química , Canales Iónicos/metabolismo , Mutación , Secuencia Conservada
14.
JMIR Rehabil Assist Technol ; 10: e41993, 2023 Aug 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37535411

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Video games are a popular sedentary activity among people with impaired mobility; however, active video game hardware typically lacks accessibility and customization options for individuals with mobility impairments. A touchpad video game system can elicit moderate physical activity in healthy adults; however, it is unclear if this system is usable by adults with impaired mobility. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the usability of a touchpad video game controller system adapted for adults with impaired mobility. Additional outcomes explored were enjoyment, perceived exertion, self-efficacy, participant feedback, and researcher observations of gameplay. METHODS: Participants played several video game titles for 20 minutes with a touchpad video game controller as they stood or sat in a chair or their wheelchair. Usability was assessed with the System Usability Scale (SUS) and the Health Information Technology Usability Evaluation Scale (Health-ITUES) surveys after gameplay. After each video game, participants reported enjoyment using a visual analog scale (0 to 100 mm) and a rating of perceived exertion using the OMNI 0 to 10 scale. Self-efficacy was measured before and after gameplay. Participants provided feedback at the end of their session. RESULTS: In total, 21 adults (6 females and 15 males) with a mean age of 48.8 (SD 13.8) years with various mobility impairments participated in this study. The touchpads received mean usability scores on the SUS 80.1 (SD 18.5) and Health-ITUES 4.23 (SD 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: The SUS scores reported suggest the touchpad system is "usable"; however, the Health-ITUES scores were slightly below a suggested benchmark. Participants reported moderate to high enjoyment but perceived the exertion as "somewhat easy." Self-efficacy was moderate to high and did not differ pre- to postgame play. The participants regarded the touchpads as novel, fun, and entertaining. The generalizability of our results is limited due to the heterogenous sample; however, our participants identified several areas of improvement for future iteration.

15.
JMIR Form Res ; 7: e49685, 2023 Dec 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38100173

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: People with disabilities experience numerous barriers to being physically active, such as transportation issues, a lack of trained exercise professionals who understand disabilities, and facility access. The use of a virtual exercise platform (VEP) may provide an alternative and limit certain barriers. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this mixed method study was to evaluate user interaction (effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction), the strengths and weaknesses of the user interface, and the user experience with a VEP. METHODS: Participants were recruited from a community fitness facility that offers programs for people with disabilities. Inclusion criteria were being older than 18 years, fluent in English, and availability of internet access. Features of the VEP included articles, prerecorded videos, live Zoom classes, web-based class registration, weekly progress tracking, incentives, and surveys. A one-on-one Zoom session was scheduled with each participant, during which they completed certain tasks: (1) create an account or login, (2) register for class, (3) join class, (4) add to calendar, and (5) complete surveys. As participants completed tasks, quantitative observations (time on task, task success, rate of task completion, and number of errors by users, which determined task difficulty), qualitative observations were made and interviews were conducted at the end of the session. The "concurrent think-aloud" method was encouraged by the moderator to gauge participants' thoughts as they worked through testing. Participants also completed the System Usability Scale (SUS) and Questionnaire for User Interface Satisfaction (QUIS). RESULTS: A total of 5 people with disabilities (3 male, 2 female), aged 36-78 (mean 54) years, with education levels from high school to PhD, were recruited. Devices used for testing included a laptop (n=3), a Chromebook (n=1), and a desktop (n=1). All participants completed tasks #1 and #2 without errors but could not complete task #4. One participant completed task #5 with difficulty and another completed task #3 with difficulty. The average time to complete each task was: (1) 82 seconds (55-110), (2) 11 seconds (4-21), (3) 9 seconds (5-27), and (4) 921.5 seconds (840-958). The mean SUS score was 86.5/100, and the mean user QUIS score was 8.08 out of 10. Qualitative observations indicated that the system was simple, user-friendly, and accessible. CONCLUSIONS: People with disabilities reported high usability and user satisfaction with the web-based exercise platform, and the system appears to be an efficient and effective physical activity option.

16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36777952

RESUMEN

We compared optimal antibiotic prescribing before and after implementing an interpretive ß-lactamase microbiology comment for Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in lower respiratory-tract infections. The postintervention group was associated with 5-fold increased odds of optimal de-escalation (adjusted odds ratio, 5.03; 95% confidence interval, 2.57-9.87).

17.
JMIR Serious Games ; 11: e38484, 2023 Jan 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36626195

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Replacing sedentary behaviors during leisure time with active video gaming has been shown to be an enjoyable option for increasing physical activity. However, most off-the-shelf active video gaming controllers are not accessible or usable for individuals with mobility impairments. To address this requirement, a universal video game controller (called the GAIMplank) was designed and developed. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the usability of the GAIMplank video game controller for playing PC video games among individuals with mobility impairments. Measures of enjoyment, perceived exertion, and qualitative data on the user experience were also examined. METHODS: Adults (aged 18-75 years) with a mobility impairment were recruited to participate in a single testing session in the laboratory. Before testing began, basic demographic information, along with minutes of weekday and weekend physical activity, minutes of weekday and weekend video game play, and video game play experience were collected. The GAIMplank was mapped to operate as a typical joystick controller. Depending on their comfort and functional ability, participants chose to play seated in a chair, standing, or in their own manual wheelchair. Leaning movements of the trunk created corresponding action in the game (ie, lean right to move right). The participants played a total of 5 preselected video games for approximately 5 minutes each. Data were collected to assess the usability of the GAIMplank, along with self-efficacy regarding execution of game play actions, rating of perceived exertion and enjoyment for each game, and overall qualitative feedback. RESULTS: A total of 21 adults (n=15, 71% men; n=6, 29% women) completed the usability testing, with a mean age of 48.8 (SD 13.8; range 21-73) years. Overall, 38% (8/21) of adults played while standing, 33% (7/21) of adults played while seated in a chair, and 29% (6/21) played in their own manual wheelchair. Scores from the System Usability Scale indicated above average (74.8, SD 14.5) usability, with scores best for those who played seated in a chair, followed by those standing, and then individuals who played seated in their own wheelchairs. Inconsistencies in the responsiveness of the controller and general feedback for minor improvements were documented. Rating of perceived exertion scores ranged from light to moderate intensity, with the highest scores for those who played seated in a chair. Participants rated their experience with playing each game from above average to very enjoyable. CONCLUSIONS: The GAIMplank video game controller was found to be usable and accessible, providing an enjoyable option for light-to-moderate intensity exercise among adults with mobility impairments. Minor issues with inconsistencies in controller responsiveness were also recorded. Following further development and refinement, the next phase will include a pilot exercise intervention using the GAIMplank system.

18.
Nanotechnology ; 23(33): 335201, 2012 Aug 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22842356

RESUMEN

The heteroepitaxy of III-V semiconductors on silicon is a promising approach for making silicon a photonic platform. Mismatches in material properties, however, present a major challenge, leading to high defect densities in the epitaxial layers and adversely affecting radiative recombination processes. However, nanostructures, such as quantum dots, have been found to grow defect-free even in a suboptimal environment. Here we present the first realization of indium phosphide quantum dots on exactly oriented Si(001), grown by metal-organic vapour-phase epitaxy. We report electrically driven single-photon emission in the red spectral region, meeting the wavelength range of silicon avalanche photodiodes' highest detection efficiency.

19.
Epidemics ; 40: 100624, 2022 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36075125

RESUMEN

The effective reproduction number Rt measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches do not quantify the uncertainty correctly in estimating Rt, as expected by the observed variability in contagion patterns. We elaborate on the Bayesian estimation of Rt by improving on the Poisson sampling model of Cori et al. (2013). By adding an autoregressive latent process, we build a Dynamic Linear Model on the log of observed Rts, resulting in a filtering type Bayesian inference. We use a conjugate analysis, and all calculations are explicit. Results show an improved uncertainty quantification on the estimation of Rt's, with a reliable method that could safely be used by non-experts and within other forecasting systems. We illustrate our approach with recent data from the current COVID19 epidemic in Mexico.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Número Básico de Reproducción , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/epidemiología , Humanos , Incertidumbre
20.
Epidemics ; 39: 100564, 2022 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35487155

RESUMEN

We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation and forecasting method for non-autonomous dynamical systems. We applied this method to the current COVID-19 pandemic. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and previously validated. The transmission and epidemic models are coded into a dynamical system. The observation model depends on the dynamical system state variables and parameters, and is cast as a likelihood function. The forecast is sequentially updated over a sliding window of epidemic records as new data becomes available. Prior distributions for the state variables at the new forecasting time are assembled using the dynamical system, calibrated for the previous forecast. Epidemic outbreaks are non-autonomous dynamical systems depending on human behavior, viral evolution and climate, among other factors, rendering it impossible to make reliable long-term epidemic forecasts. We show our forecasting method's performance using a SEIR type model and COVID-19 data from several Mexican localities. Moreover, we derive further insights into the COVID-19 pandemic from our model predictions. The rationale of our approach is that sequential data assimilation is an adequate compromise between data fitting and dynamical system prediction.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Predicción , Humanos , Pandemias
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