A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

A planetary health innovation for disease, food and water challenges in Africa.

Many communities in low- and middle-income countries globally lack sustainable, cost-effective and mutually beneficial solutions for infectious disease, food, water and poverty challenges, despite their inherent interdependence1-7. Here we provide support for the hypothesis that agricultural development and fertilizer use in West Africa increase the burden of the parasitic disease schistosomiasis by fuelling the growth of submerged aquatic vegetation that chokes out water access points and serves as habitat for freshwater snails that transmit Schistosoma parasites to more than 200 million people globally8-10. In a cluster randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03187366) in which we removed invasive submerged vegetation from water points at 8 of 16 villages (that is, clusters), control sites had 1.46 times higher intestinal Schistosoma infection rates in schoolchildren and lower open water access than removal sites. Vegetation removal did not have any detectable long-term adverse effects on local water quality or freshwater biodiversity. In feeding trials, the removed vegetation was as effective as traditional livestock feed but 41 to 179 times cheaper and converting the vegetation to compost provided private crop production and total (public health plus crop production benefits) benefit-to-cost ratios as high as 4.0 and 8.8, respectively. Thus, the approach yielded an economic incentive-with important public health co-benefits-to maintain cleared waterways and return nutrients captured in aquatic plants back to agriculture with promise of breaking poverty-disease traps. To facilitate targeting and scaling of the intervention, we lay the foundation for using remote sensing technology to detect snail habitats. By offering a rare, profitable, win-win approach to addressing food and water access, poverty alleviation, infectious disease control and environmental sustainability, we hope to inspire the interdisciplinary search for planetary health solutions11 to the many and formidable, co-dependent global grand challenges of the twenty-first century.

Transmission potential of human schistosomes can be driven by resource competition among snail intermediate hosts.

Predicting and disrupting transmission of human parasites from wildlife hosts or vectors remains challenging because ecological interactions can influence their epidemiological traits. Human schistosomes, parasitic flatworms that cycle between freshwater snails and humans, typify this challenge. Human exposure risk, given water contact, is driven by the production of free-living cercariae by snail populations. Conventional epidemiological models and management focus on the density of infected snails under the assumption that all snails are equally infectious. However, individual-level experiments contradict this assumption, showing increased production of schistosome cercariae with greater access to food resources. We built bioenergetics theory to predict how resource competition among snails drives the temporal dynamics of transmission potential to humans and tested these predictions with experimental epidemics and demonstrated consistency with field observations. This resource-explicit approach predicted an intense pulse of transmission potential when snail populations grow from low densities, i.e., when per capita access to resources is greatest, due to the resource-dependence of cercarial production. The experiment confirmed this prediction, identifying a strong effect of infected host size and the biomass of competitors on per capita cercarial production. A field survey of 109 waterbodies also found that per capita cercarial production decreased as competitor biomass increased. Further quantification of snail densities, sizes, cercarial production, and resources in diverse transmission sites is needed to assess the epidemiological importance of resource competition and support snail-based disruption of schistosome transmission. More broadly, this work illustrates how resource competition can sever the correspondence between infectious host density and transmission potential.

Sublethal effects of parasitism on ruminants can have cascading consequences for ecosystems.

Parasitic infections are common, but how they shape ecosystem-level processes is understudied. Using a mathematical model and meta-analysis, we explored the potential for helminth parasites to trigger trophic cascades through lethal and sublethal effects imposed on herbivorous ruminant hosts after infection. First, using the model, we linked negative effects of parasitic infection on host survival, fecundity, and feeding rate to host and producer biomass. Our model, parameterized with data from a well-documented producer­caribou­helminth system, reveals that even moderate impacts of parasites on host survival, fecundity, or feeding rate can have cascading effects on ruminant host and producer biomass. Second, using meta-analysis, we investigated the links between helminth infections and traits of free-living ruminant hosts in nature. We found that helminth infections tend to exert negative but sublethal effects on ruminant hosts. Specifically, infection significantly reduces host feeding rates, body mass, and body condition but has weak and highly variable effects on survival and fecundity. Together, these findings suggest that while helminth parasites can trigger trophic cascades through multiple mechanisms, overlooked sublethal effects on nonreproductive traits likely dominate their impacts on ecosystems. In particular, by reducing ruminant herbivory, pervasive helminth infections may contribute to a greener world.

Spatio-temporal variability in transmission risk of human schistosomes and animal trematodes in a seasonally desiccating East African landscape.

Different populations of hosts and parasites experience distinct seasonality in environmental factors, depending on local-scale biotic and abiotic factors. This can lead to highly heterogeneous disease outcomes across host ranges. Variable seasonality characterizes urogenital schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic trematodes (Schistosoma haematobium). Their intermediate hosts are aquatic Bulinus snails that are highly adapted to extreme rainfall seasonality, undergoing prolonged dormancy yearly. While Bulinus snails have a remarkable capacity for rebounding following dormancy, we investigated the extent to which parasite survival within snails is diminished. We conducted an investigation of seasonal snail schistosome dynamics in 109 ponds of variable ephemerality in Tanzania from August 2021 to July 2022. First, we found that ponds have two synchronized peaks of schistosome infection prevalence and observed cercariae, though of lower magnitude in the fully desiccating than non-desiccating ponds. Second, we evaluated total yearly schistosome prevalence across an ephemerality gradient, finding ponds with intermediate ephemerality to have the highest infection rates. We also investigated dynamics of non-schistosome trematodes, which lacked synonymity with schistosome patterns. We found peak schistosome transmission risk at intermediate pond ephemerality, thus the impacts of anticipated increases in landscape desiccation could result in increases or decreases in transmission risk with global change.

Interventions can shift the thermal optimum for parasitic disease transmission.

Temperature constrains the transmission of many pathogens. Interventions that target temperature-sensitive life stages, such as vector control measures that kill intermediate hosts, could shift the thermal optimum of transmission, thereby altering seasonal disease dynamics and rendering interventions less effective at certain times of the year and with global climate change. To test these hypotheses, we integrated an epidemiological model of schistosomiasis with empirically determined temperature-dependent traits of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate snail host (Biomphalaria spp.). We show that transmission risk peaks at 21.7 °C (Topt ), and simulated interventions targeting snails and free-living parasite larvae increased Topt by up to 1.3 °C because intervention-related mortality overrode thermal constraints on transmission. This Topt shift suggests that snail control is more effective at lower temperatures, and global climate change will increase schistosomiasis risk in regions that move closer to Topt Considering regional transmission phenologies and timing of interventions when local conditions approach Topt will maximize human health outcomes.

Host-pathogen interactions under pressure: A review and meta-analysis of stress-mediated effects on disease dynamics.

Human activities have increased the intensity and frequency of natural stressors and created novel stressors, altering host-pathogen interactions and changing the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Despite the ubiquity of such anthropogenic impacts, predicting the directionality of outcomes has proven challenging. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to determine the primary mechanisms through which stressors affect host-pathogen interactions and to evaluate the impacts stress has on host fitness (survival and fecundity) and pathogen infectivity (prevalence and intensity). We assessed 891 effect sizes from 71 host species (representing seven taxonomic groups) and 78 parasite taxa from 98 studies. We found that infected and uninfected hosts had similar sensitivity to stressors and that responses varied according to stressor type. Specifically, limited resources compromised host fecundity and decreased pathogen intensity, while abiotic environmental stressors (e.g., temperature and salinity) decreased host survivorship and increased pathogen intensity, and pollution increased mortality but decreased pathogen prevalence. We then used our meta-analysis results to develop susceptible-infected theoretical models to illustrate scenarios where infection rates are expected to increase or decrease in response to resource limitations or environmental stress gradients. Our results carry implications for conservation and disease emergence and reveal areas for future work.

Experimental water hyacinth invasion and destructive management increase human schistosome transmission potential.

Invasive species cause environmental degradation, decrease biodiversity, and alter ecosystem function. Invasions can also drive changes in vector-borne and zoonotic diseases by altering important traits of wildlife hosts or disease vectors. Managing invasive species can restore biodiversity and ecosystem function, but it may have cascading effects on hosts, parasites, and human risk of infection. Water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, is an extremely detrimental invader in many sites of human schistosome transmission, especially in Lake Victoria, where hyacinth is correlated with high snail abundance and hotspots of human schistosome infection. Hyacinth is often managed via removal or in situ destruction, but the effects of these strategies on snail intermediate hosts and schistosomes are not known. We evaluated the effects of water hyacinth invasion and these management strategies on the dynamics of human schistosomes, Schistosoma mansoni, and snails, Biomphalaria glabrata, in experimental mesocosms over 17 weeks. We hypothesized that hyacinth, which is inedible to snails, would affect snail growth, reproduction, and cercariae production through the balance of its competitive effects on edible algae and its production of edible detritus. We predicted that destruction would create a pulse of edible detrital resources, thereby increasing snail growth, reproduction, and parasite production. Conversely, we predicted that removal would have small or negligible effects on snails and schistosomes, because it would alleviate competition on edible algae without generating a resource pulse. We found that hyacinth invasion suppressed algae, changed the timing of peak snail abundance, and increased total production of human-infectious cercariae ~6-fold relative to uninvaded controls. Hyacinth management had complex effects on algae, snails, and schistosomes. Removal increased algal growth and snail abundance (but not biomass), and slightly reduced schistosome production. In contrast, destruction increased snail biomass (but not abundance), indicating increases in body size. Destruction caused the greatest schistosome production (10-fold more than the control), consistent with evidence that larger snails with greater access to food are most infectious. Our results highlight the dynamic effects of invasion and management on a globally impactful human parasite and its intermediate host. Ultimately, preventing or removing hyacinth invasions would simultaneously benefit human and environmental health outcomes.

Pseudacris regilla metamorphs acquire resistance to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis after exposure to the killed fungus.

The pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is associated with drastic global amphibian declines. Prophylactic exposure to killed zoospores and the soluble chemicals they produce (Bd metabolites) can induce acquired resistance to Bd in adult Cuban treefrogs Osteopilus septentrionalis. Here, we exposed metamorphic frogs of a second species, the Pacific chorus frog Pseudacris regilla, to one of 2 prophylactic treatments prior to live Bd exposures: killed Bd zoospores with metabolites, killed zoospores alone, or a water control. Prior exposure to killed Bd zoospores with metabolites reduced Bd infection intensity in metamorphic Pacific chorus frogs by 60.4% compared to control frogs. Interestingly, Bd intensity in metamorphs previously exposed to killed zoospores alone did not differ in magnitude relative to the control metamorphs, nor to those treated with killed zoospores plus metabolites. Previous work indicated that Bd metabolites alone can induce acquired resistance in tadpoles, and so these findings together indicate that it is possible that the soluble Bd metabolites may contain immunomodulatory components that drive this resistance phenotype. Our results expand the generality of this prophylaxis work by identifying a second amphibian species (Pacific chorus frog) and an additional amphibian life stage (metamorphic frog) that can acquire resistance to Bd after metabolite exposure. This work increases hopes that a Bd-metabolite prophylaxis might be widely effective across amphibian species and life stages.

Competitive Exclusion of Phytopathogenic Serratia marcescens from Squash Bug Vectors by the Gut Endosymbiont Caballeronia.

Many insects harbor microbial symbiotic partners that offer protection against pathogens, parasitoids, and other natural enemies. Mounting evidence suggests that these symbiotic microbes can play key roles in determining infection outcomes in insect vectors, making them important players in the quest to develop novel vector control strategies. Using the squash bug Anasa tristis, we investigated how the presence of Caballeronia symbionts affected the persistence and intensity of phytopathogenic Serratia marcescens within the insect vector. We reared insects aposymbiotically and with different Caballeronia isolates, infected them with S. marcescens, and then sampled the insects periodically to assess the intensity and persistence of pathogen infection. Squash bugs harboring Caballeronia consistently had much lower-intensity infections and cleared S. marcescens significantly faster than their aposymbiotic counterparts. These patterns held even when we reversed the timing of exposure to symbiont and pathogen. Taken together, these results indicate that Caballeronia symbionts play an essential role in S. marcescens infection outcomes in squash bugs and could be used to alter vector competence to enhance agricultural productivity in the future. IMPORTANCE Insect-microbe symbioses have repeatedly been shown to profoundly impact an insect's ability to vector pathogens to other hosts. The use of symbiotic microbes to control insect vector populations is of growing interest in agricultural settings. Our study examines how symbiotic microbes affect the dynamics of a plant pathogen infection within the squash bug vector Anasa tristis, a well-documented pest of squash and other cucurbit plants and a vector of Serratia marcescens, the causative agent of cucurbit yellow vine disease. We provide evidence that the symbiont Caballeronia prevents successful, long-term establishment of S. marcescens in the squash bug. These findings give us insight into symbiont-pathogen dynamics within the squash bug that could ultimately determine its ability to transmit pathogens and be leveraged to interrupt disease transmission in this system.

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics.

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual's contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual's positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual's biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.

Variability in environmental persistence but not per capita transmission rates of the amphibian chytrid fungus leads to differences in host infection prevalence.

Heterogeneities in infections among host populations may arise through differences in environmental conditions through two mechanisms. First, environmental conditions may alter host exposure to pathogens via effects on survival. Second, environmental conditions may alter host susceptibility, making infection more or less likely if contact between a host and pathogen occurs. Further, host susceptibility might be altered through acquired resistance, which hosts can develop, in some systems, through exposure to dead or decaying pathogens and their metabolites. Environmental conditions may alter the rates of pathogen decomposition, influencing the likelihood of hosts developing acquired resistance. The present study primarily tests how environmental context influences the relative contributions of pathogen survival and per capita transmission on host infection prevalence using the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; Bd) as a model system. Secondarily, we evaluate how environmental context influences the decomposition of Bd because previous studies have shown that dead Bd and its metabolites can illicit acquired resistance in hosts. We conducted Bd survival and infection experiments and then fit models to discern how Bd mortality, decomposition and per capita transmission rates vary among water sources [e.g. artificial spring water (ASW) or water from three ponds]. We found that infection prevalence differed among water sources, which was driven by differences in mortality rates of Bd, rather than differences in per capita transmission rates. Bd mortality rates varied among pond water treatments and were lower in ASW compared to pond water. These results suggest that variation in Bd infection dynamics could be a function of environmental factors in waterbodies that result in differences in exposure of hosts to live Bd. In contrast to the persistence of live Bd, we found that the rates of decomposition of dead Bd did not vary among water sources, which may suggest that exposure of hosts to dead Bd or its metabolites might not commonly vary among nearby sites. Ultimately, a mechanistic understanding of the environmental dependence of free-living pathogens could lead to a deeper understanding of the patterns of outbreak heterogeneity, which could inform surveillance and management strategies.

Snail juvenile growth rate as a rapid predictor of the transmission potential of parasitizing human schistosomes.

Host and parasite traits that are sensitive to environmental perturbations merit special attention in the mitigation of diseases. While life table experiments allow a practical evaluation of variability of these traits with environmental change, they are cost and resource intensive. Here, we use a model snail host-trematode parasite system to test the efficacy of an expeditious alternative. Rapidly changing host traits (such as juvenile growth rate) can be used as effective predictors of parasite transmission potential across a range of environmental factors. This approach can be applied to anticipate epidemiological changes under diverse environmental scenarios.

Resource fluctuations inhibit the reproduction and virulence of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni in its snail intermediate host.

Resource availability can powerfully influence host-parasite interactions. However, we currently lack a mechanistic framework to predict how resource fluctuations alter individual infection dynamics. We address this gap with experiments manipulating resource supply and starvation for a human parasite, Schistosoma mansoni, and its snail intermediate host to test a hypothesis derived from mechanistic energy budget theory: resource fluctuations should reduce schistosome reproduction and virulence by inhibiting parasite ingestion of host biomass. Low resource supply caused hosts to remain small, reproduce less and produce fewer human-infectious cercariae. Periodic starvation also inhibited cercarial production and prevented infection-induced castration. The periodic starvation experiment also revealed substantial differences in fit between two bioenergetic model variants, which differ in their representation of host starvation. Simulations using the best-fit parameters of the winning model suggest that schistosome performance substantially declines with resource fluctuations with periods greater than 7 days. These experiments strengthen mechanistic theory, which can be readily scaled up to the population level to understand key feedbacks between resources, host population dynamics, parasitism and control interventions. Integrating resources with other environmental drivers of disease in an explicit bioenergetic framework could ultimately yield mechanistic predictions for many disease systems.

Amphibians acquire resistance to live and dead fungus overcoming fungal immunosuppression.

Emerging fungal pathogens pose a greater threat to biodiversity than any other parasitic group, causing declines of many taxa, including bats, corals, bees, snakes and amphibians. Currently, there is little evidence that wild animals can acquire resistance to these pathogens. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is a pathogenic fungus implicated in the recent global decline of amphibians. Here we demonstrate that three species of amphibians can acquire behavioural or immunological resistance to B. dendrobatidis. Frogs learned to avoid the fungus after just one B. dendrobatidis exposure and temperature-induced clearance. In subsequent experiments in which B. dendrobatidis avoidance was prevented, the number of previous exposures was a negative predictor of B. dendrobatidis burden on frogs and B. dendrobatidis-induced mortality, and was a positive predictor of lymphocyte abundance and proliferation. These results suggest that amphibians can acquire immunity to B. dendrobatidis that overcomes pathogen-induced immunosuppression and increases their survival. Importantly, exposure to dead fungus induced a similar magnitude of acquired resistance as exposure to live fungus. Exposure of frogs to B. dendrobatidis antigens might offer a practical way to protect pathogen-naive amphibians and facilitate the reintroduction of amphibians to locations in the wild where B. dendrobatidis persists. Moreover, given the conserved nature of vertebrate immune responses to fungi and the fact that many animals are capable of learning to avoid natural enemies, these results offer hope that other wild animal taxa threatened by invasive fungi might be rescued by management approaches based on herd immunity.

Impacts of thermal mismatches on chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis prevalence are moderated by life stage, body size, elevation and latitude.

Global climate change is increasing the frequency of unpredictable weather conditions; however, it remains unclear how species-level and geographic factors, including body size and latitude, moderate impacts of unusually warm or cool temperatures on disease. Because larger and lower-latitude hosts generally have slower acclimation times than smaller and higher-latitude hosts, we hypothesised that their disease susceptibility increases under 'thermal mismatches' or differences between baseline climate and the temperature during surveying for disease. Here, we examined how thermal mismatches interact with body size, life stage, habitat, latitude, elevation, phylogeny and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) conservation status to predict infection prevalence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in a global analysis of 32 291 amphibian hosts. As hypothesised, we found that the susceptibility of larger hosts and hosts from lower latitudes to Bd was influenced by thermal mismatches. Furthermore, hosts of conservation concern were more susceptible than others following thermal mismatches, suggesting that thermal mismatches might have contributed to recent amphibian declines.

Genotypic variation in parasite avoidance behaviour and other mechanistic, nonlinear components of transmission.

Traditional epidemiological models assume that transmission increases proportionally to the density of parasites. However, empirical data frequently contradict this assumption. General yet mechanistic models can explain why transmission depends nonlinearly on parasite density and thereby identify potential defensive strategies of hosts. For example, hosts could decrease their exposure rates at higher parasite densities (via behavioural avoidance) or decrease their per-parasite susceptibility when encountering more parasites (e.g. via stronger immune responses). To illustrate, we fitted mechanistic transmission models to 19 genotypes of Daphnia dentifera hosts over gradients of the trophically acquired parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata. Exposure rate (foraging, F) frequently decreased with parasite density (Z), and per-parasite susceptibility (U) frequently decreased with parasite encounters (F×Z). Consequently, infection rates (F×U×Z) often peaked at intermediate parasite densities. Moreover, host genotypes varied substantially in these responses. Exposure rates remained constant for some genotypes but decreased sensitively with parasite density for others (up to 78%). Furthermore, genotypes with more sensitive foraging/exposure also foraged faster in the absence of parasites (suggesting 'fast and sensitive' versus 'slow and steady' strategies). These relationships suggest that high densities of parasites can inhibit transmission by decreasing exposure rates and/or per-parasite susceptibility, and identify several intriguing axes for the evolution of host defence.

An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines.

Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host-parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool- and warm-adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.

Spatial scale modulates the strength of ecological processes driving disease distributions.

Humans are altering the distribution of species by changing the climate and disrupting biotic interactions and dispersal. A fundamental hypothesis in spatial ecology suggests that these effects are scale dependent; biotic interactions should shape distributions at local scales, whereas climate should dominate at regional scales. If so, common single-scale analyses might misestimate the impacts of anthropogenic modifications on biodiversity and the environment. However, large-scale datasets necessary to test these hypotheses have not been available until recently. Here we conduct a cross-continental, cross-scale (almost five orders of magnitude) analysis of the influence of biotic and abiotic processes and human population density on the distribution of three emerging pathogens: the amphibian chytrid fungus implicated in worldwide amphibian declines and West Nile virus and the bacterium that causes Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi), which are responsible for ongoing human health crises. In all three systems, we show that biotic factors were significant predictors of pathogen distributions in multiple regression models only at local scales (∼10(2)-10(3) km(2)), whereas climate and human population density always were significant only at relatively larger, regional scales (usually >10(4) km(2)). Spatial autocorrelation analyses revealed that biotic factors were more variable at smaller scales, whereas climatic factors were more variable at larger scales, as is consistent with the prediction that factors should be important at the scales at which they vary the most. Finally, no single scale could detect the importance of all three categories of processes. These results highlight that common single-scale analyses can misrepresent the true impact of anthropogenic modifications on biodiversity and the environment.

Bioenergetic theory predicts infection dynamics of human schistosomes in intermediate host snails across ecological gradients.

Epidemiological dynamics depend on the traits of hosts and parasites, but hosts and parasites are heterogeneous entities that exist in dynamic environments. Resource availability is a particularly dynamic and potent environmental driver of within-host infection dynamics (temporal patterns of growth, reproduction, parasite production and survival). We developed, parameterised and validated a model for resource-explicit infection dynamics by incorporating a parasitism module into dynamic energy budget theory. The model mechanistically explained the dynamic multivariate responses of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate host snail to variation in resources and host density. At the population level, feedbacks mediated by resource competition could create a unimodal relationship between snail density and human risk of exposure to schistosomes. Consequently, weak snail control could backfire if reductions in snail density release remaining hosts from resource competition. If resource competition is strong and relevant to schistosome production in nature, it could inform control strategies.