Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations.

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

Ensuring robust radiological risk assessment for wildlife: insights from the International Atomic Energy Agency EMRAS and MODARIA programmes.

In response to changing international recommendations and national requirements, a number of assessment approaches, and associated tools and models, have been developed over the last circa 20 years to assess radiological risk to wildlife. In this paper, we summarise international intercomparison exercises and scenario applications of available radiological assessment models for wildlife to aid future model users and those such as regulators who interpret assessments. Through our studies, we have assessed the fitness for purpose of various models and tools, identified the major sources of uncertainty and made recommendations on how the models and tools can best be applied to suit the purposes of an assessment. We conclude that the commonly used tiered or graded assessment tools are generally fit for purpose for conducting screening-level assessments of radiological impacts to wildlife. Radiological protection of the environment (or wildlife) is still a relatively new development within the overall system of radiation protection and environmental assessment approaches are continuing to develop. Given that some new/developing approaches differ considerably from the more established models/tools and there is an increasing international interest in developing approaches that support the effective regulation of multiple stressors (including radiation), we recommend the continuation of coordinated international programmes for model development, intercomparison and scenario testing.

Transfer parameters for ICRP reference animals and plants collected from a forest ecosystem.

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) have suggested the identification of a series of terrestrial, marine and freshwater sites from which samples of each Reference animal and plant (RAP) could be systematically collected and analysed. We describe the first such study in which six of the eight terrestrial RAPs, and associated soil samples, were collected from a site located in a managed coniferous forestry plantation in north-west England. Adult life stages of species representing six of the terrestrial RAPs (Wild grass, Pine tree, Deer, Rat, Earthworm and Bee) were sampled and analysed to determine concentrations of 60 elements and gamma-emitting radionuclides. The resultant data have been used to derive concentration ratios (CR(wo-soil)) relating element/radionuclide concentrations in the RAPs to those in soil. This paper presents the first-reported transfer parameters for a number of the RAP-element combinations. Where possible, the derived CR(wo-soil) values are compared with the ICRPs-recommended values and any appreciable differences discussed.

Model-derived dose rates per unit concentration of radon in air in a generic plant geometry.

A model for the derivation of dose rates per unit radon concentration in plants was developed in line with the activities of a Task Group of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), aimed at developing more realistic dosimetry for non-human biota. The model considers interception of the unattached and attached fractions of the airborne radon daughters by plant stomata, diffusion of radon gas through stomata, permeation through the plant's epidermis and translocation of deposited activity to plant interior. The endpoint of the model is the derivation of dose conversion coefficients relative to radon gas concentration at ground level. The model predicts that the main contributor to dose is deposition of (214)Po α-activity on the plant surface and that diffusion of radon daughters through the stomata is of relatively minor importance; hence, daily variations have a small effect on total dose.

The estimation of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota: an extended intercomparison.

An exercise to compare 10 approaches for the calculation of unweighted whole-body absorbed dose rates was conducted for 74 radionuclides and five of the ICRP's Reference Animals and Plants, or RAPs (duck, frog, flatfish egg, rat and elongated earthworm), selected for this exercise to cover a range of body sizes, dimensions and exposure scenarios. Results were analysed using a non-parametric method requiring no specific hypotheses about the statistical distribution of data. The obtained unweighted absorbed dose rates for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, with 70% of the results falling within a range of variation of ±20%. The variation is greater for external exposure, although 90% of the estimates are within an order of magnitude of one another. There are some discernible patterns where specific models over- or under-predicted. These are explained based on the methodological differences including number of daughter products included in the calculation of dose rate for a parent nuclide; source-target geometry; databases for discrete energy and yield of radionuclides; rounding errors in integration algorithms; and intrinsic differences in calculation methods. For certain radionuclides, these factors combine to generate systematic variations between approaches. Overall, the technique chosen to interpret the data enabled methodological differences in dosimetry calculations to be quantified and compared, allowing the identification of common issues between different approaches and providing greater assurance on the fundamental dose conversion coefficient approaches used in available models for assessing radiological effects to biota.

Considerations for the integration of human and wildlife radiological assessments.

A number of tools and approaches have been developed recently to allow assessments of the environmental impact of radiation on wildlife to be undertaken. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has stated an intention to provide a more inclusive protection framework for humans and the environment. Using scenarios, which are loosely based on real or predicted discharge data, we investigate how radiological assessments of humans and wildlife can be integrated with special consideration given to the recent outputs of the ICRP. We highlight how assumptions about the location of the exposed population of humans and wildlife, and the selection of appropriate benchmarks for determining potential risks can influence the outcome of the assessments. A number of issues associated with the transfer component and numeric benchmarks were identified, which need to be addressed in order to fully integrate the assessment approaches. A particular issue was the lack of comparable benchmark values for humans and wildlife. In part this may be addressed via the ICRP's recommended derived consideration reference levels for their 12 Reference Animals and Plants.

Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K(d)) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

A multi-criteria weight of evidence approach for deriving ecological benchmarks for radioactive substances.

Dose rate benchmarks are required in the tiered approaches used to screen out benign exposure scenarios in radiological ecological risk assessment. Such screening benchmarks, namely the predicted no-effect dose rates (PNEDR), have been derived by applying, as far as possible, the European guidance developed for chemicals. To derive the ecosystem level (or generic) PNEDR, radiotoxicity EDR(10) data (dose rates giving a 10% effect in comparison with the control) were used to fit a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) and estimate the HDR(5) (the hazardous dose rate affecting 5% of species with a 10% effect). Then, a multi-criteria approach was developed to justify using an assessment factor (AF) to apply to the HDR(5) for estimating a PNEDR value. Several different statistical data treatments were considered which all gave reasonably similar results. The suggested generic screening value of 10 microGy h(-1) (incremental dose rate) was derived using the lowest available EDR(10) value per species, an unweighted SSD, and an AF of 2 applied to the estimated HDR(5). Consideration was also given to deriving screening benchmark values for organism groups but this was not thought to be currently appropriate due to few relevant data being currently available.

Protection of the environment from ionising radiation in a regulatory context--an overview of the PROTECT coordinated action project.

The outcome of the PROTECT project (Protection of the Environment from Ionising Radiation in a Regulatory Context) is summarised, focusing on the protection goal and derivation of dose rates which may detrimentally affect wildlife populations. To carry out an impact assessment for radioactive substances, the estimated dose rates produced by assessment tools need to be compared with some form of criteria to judge the level of risk. To do this, appropriate protection goals need to be defined and associated predefined dose rate values, or benchmarks, derived and agreed upon. Previous approaches used to estimate dose rates at which there may be observable changes in populations or individuals are described and discussed, as are more recent derivations of screening benchmarks for use in regulatory frameworks. We have adopted guidance and procedures used for assessment and regulation of other chemical stressors to derive benchmarks. On the basis of consultation with many relevant experts, PROTECT has derived a benchmark screening dose rate, using data on largely reproductive effects to derive species sensitivity distributions, of 10 microGy h(-1) which can be used to identify situations which are below regulatory concern with a high degree of confidence.

Predicting the radiation exposure of terrestrial wildlife in the Chernobyl exclusion zone: an international comparison of approaches.

There is now general acknowledgement that there is a requirement to demonstrate that species other than humans are protected from anthropogenic releases of radioactivity. A number of approaches have been developed for estimating the exposure of wildlife and some of these are being used to conduct regulatory assessments. There is a requirement to compare the outputs of such approaches against available data sets to ensure that they are robust and fit for purpose. In this paper we describe the application of seven approaches for predicting the whole-body ((90)Sr, (137)Cs, (241)Am and Pu isotope) activity concentrations and absorbed dose rates for a range of terrestrial species within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Predictions are compared against available measurement data, including estimates of external dose rate recorded by thermoluminescent dosimeters attached to rodent species. Potential reasons for differences between predictions between the various approaches and the available data are explored.

An international model validation exercise on radionuclide transfer and doses to freshwater biota.

Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme, activity concentrations of (60)Co, (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (3)H in Perch Lake at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Chalk River Laboratories site were predicted, in freshwater primary producers, invertebrates, fishes, herpetofauna and mammals using eleven modelling approaches. Comparison of predicted radionuclide concentrations in the different species types with measured values highlighted a number of areas where additional work and understanding is required to improve the predictions of radionuclide transfer. For some species, the differences could be explained by ecological factors such as trophic level or the influence of stable analogues. Model predictions were relatively poor for mammalian species and herpetofauna compared with measured values, partly due to a lack of relevant data. In addition, concentration ratios are sometimes under-predicted when derived from experiments performed under controlled laboratory conditions representative of conditions in other water bodies.

Field effects studies in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone: Lessons to be learnt.

In the initial aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl accident there were detrimental effects recorded on wildlife, including, mass mortality of pine trees close to the reactor, reduced pine seed production, reductions in soil invertebrate abundance and diversity and likely death of small mammals. More than 30 years after the Chernobyl accident there is no consensus on the longer-term impact of the chronic exposure to radiation on wildlife in what is now referred to as the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Reconciling this lack of consensus is one of the main challenges for radioecology. With the inclusion of environmental protection in, for instance, the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), we need to be able to incorporate knowledge of the potential effects of radiation on wildlife within the regulatory process (e.g. as a basis on which to define benchmark dose rates). In this paper, we use examples of reported effects on different wildlife groups inhabiting the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) as a framework to discuss potential reasons for the lack of consensus, consider important factors influencing dose rates organisms receive and make some recommendations on good practice.

Protection of the environment.

The International Commission on Radiological Protection's (ICRP) system to protect the living components of the environment is designed to provide a broad and practical framework across different exposure situations. The framework recognises the need to be able to demonstrate an adequate level of protection in relation to planned exposure situations, whilst also providing an ability to manage existing and emergency situations in an appropriate way. In all three exposure situations, the release of radionuclides into the natural environment leads to exposures of non-human biota (wildlife), as well as having the potential for exposures of the public. How the key principles of the ICRP system of radiological protection apply in each of these exposure situations will be discussed. Using examples, we will demonstrate how the overall approach provides a mechanism for industry to assess and demonstrate compliance with the environmental protection objectives of relevant (national) legislation, and to meet stakeholder expectations that radiological protection of the environment is taken into consideration in accordance with international best practice. However, several challenges remain, and these will be discussed in the context of the need for additional guidance on the protection of the environment.

Characterising radium-226 particles from legacy contamination to support radiation dose assessments.

Radioactive particles are physically discrete sources of radioactivity that have been released into the environment as a result of past emergencies, events and practices. As the release of radioactive particles is often unplanned, the source term has not been characterised, and the potential radiation doses have not been prospectively assessed. If a plausible exposure pathway exists, radioactive particles in the environment may present a hazard to the public depending on their radiological, physical and chemical characteristics. Given their physically discrete nature, standard assessment approaches such as dispersion and transfer modelling of liquid and gaseous radioactive releases, are not appropriate for radioactive particles. The challenge for national regulatory authorities is to calculate potential radiation doses from unplanned releases of radioactive particles into the environment, assess whether the doses are relevant to radiological protection and decide whether actions are required to reduce potential doses. To address this challenge, this paper presents the approach being adopted to radiologically, physically and chemically characterise Ra-226 particles from a contaminated legacy site using gamma spectrometry, optical macroscopy and SEM-EDS. The use of particle characterisation data to support radiation dose assessments is discussed and consideration is given to radioactive particles in the context of radiological protection.

The development and purpose of the FREDERICA radiation effects database.

Any system for assessing the impact of a contaminant on the environment requires an analysis of the possible effects on the organisms and ecosystems concerned. To facilitate this, the FREDERICA radiation effects database has been developed to provide an online search of the known effects of ionising radiation on non-human species, taken from papers in the scientific peer reviewed literature. The FREDERICA radiation effects database has been produced by merging the work done on radiation effects under two European funded projects (FASSET and EPIC) and making the database available online. This paper highlights applications for the database, gaps in the available data and explains the use of quality scores to help users of the database determine which papers may benefit their research in terms of techniques and reproducibility.

Decision-making in environmental radiation protection: using the ERICA Integrated Approach.

The ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated tool and databases provide a method by which the likely impact of radioactive discharges on the environment can be evaluated, see Fig. 1. The various factors, which should be taken into account when making decisions both during and after an assessment has been made, are discussed for each stage in the assessment process for a hypothetical case study. The assessment will demonstrate the issues associated with the decision-making process at Tiers 1 and 2 within the ERICA Tool and how they may vary. The case study, set in England, evaluates the environmental impact of radioactive substances released under authorisation in response primarily to conservation legislation, because of the need to demonstrate that no adverse impacts will occur on Natura 2000 sites as a result of the release of an authorised substance.

The ERICA Tool.

The ERICA Tool is a computerised, flexible software system that has a structure based upon the ERICA Integrated Approach to assessing the radiological risk to biota. The Tool guides the user through the assessment process, recording information and decisions and allowing the necessary calculations to be performed to estimate risks to selected animals and plants. Tier 1 assessments are media concentration based and use pre-calculated environmental media concentration limits to estimate risk quotients. Tier 2 calculates dose rates but allows the user to examine and edit most of the parameters used in the calculation including concentration ratios, distribution coefficients, percentage dry weight soil or sediment, dose conversion coefficients, radiation weighting factors and occupancy factors. Tier 3 offers the same flexibility as Tier 2 but allows the option to run the assessment probabilistically if the underling parameter probability distribution functions are defined. Results from the Tool can be put into context using incorporated data on dose-effects relationships and background dose rates.

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach.

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties.

Derivation of transfer parameters for use within the ERICA Tool and the default concentration ratios for terrestrial biota.

An ability to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in biota is a requirement of any method assessing the exposure of biota to ionising radiation. Within the ERICA Tool fresh weight whole-body activity concentrations in organisms are estimated using concentration ratios (the ratio of the activity concentration in the organism to the activity concentration in an environmental media). This paper describes the methodology used to derive the default terrestrial ecosystem concentration ratio database available within the ERICA Tool and provides details of the provenance of each value for terrestrial reference organisms. As the ERICA Tool considers 13 terrestrial reference organisms and the radioisotopes of 31 elements, a total of 403 concentration ratios were required for terrestrial reference organisms. Of these, 129 could be derived from literature review. The approaches taken for selecting the remaining values are described. These included, for example, assuming values for similar reference organisms and/or biogeochemically similar elements, and various simple modelling approaches.

Background exposure rates of terrestrial wildlife in England and Wales.

It has been suggested that, when assessing radiation impacts on non-human biota, estimated dose rates due to anthropogenically released radionuclides should be put in context by comparison to dose rates from natural background radiation. In order to make these comparisons, we need data on the activity concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in environmental media and organisms of interest. This paper presents the results of a study to determine the exposure of terrestrial organisms in England and Wales to naturally occurring radionuclides, specifically (40)K, (238)U series and (232)Th series radionuclides. Whole-body activity concentrations for the reference animals and plants (RAPs) as proposed by the ICRP have been collated from literature review, data archives and a targeted sampling campaign. Data specifically for the proposed RAP are sparse. Soil activity concentrations have been derived from an extensive geochemical survey of the UK. Unweighted and weighted absorbed dose rates were estimated using the ERICA Tool. Mean total weighted whole-body absorbed dose rates estimated for the selected terrestrial organisms was in the range 6.9 x 10(-2) to 6.1 x 10(-1) microGy h(-1).