Social Frailty Index: Development and validation of an index of social attributes predictive of mortality in older adults.

While social characteristics are well-known predictors of mortality, prediction models rely almost exclusively on demographics, medical comorbidities, and function. Lacking an efficient way to summarize the prognostic impact of social factor, many studies exclude social factors altogether. Our objective was to develop and validate a summary measure of social risk and determine its ability to risk-stratify beyond traditional risk models. We examined participants in the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal, survey of US older adults. We developed the model from a comprehensive inventory of 183 social characteristics using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, a penalized regression approach. Then, we assessed the predictive capacity of the model and its ability to improve on traditional prediction models. We studied 8,250 adults aged ≥65 y. Within 4 y of the baseline interview, 22% had died. Drawn from 183 possible predictors, the Social Frailty Index included age, gender, and eight social predictors: neighborhood cleanliness, perceived control over financial situation, meeting with children less than yearly, not working for pay, active with children, volunteering, feeling isolated, and being treated with less courtesy or respect. In the validation cohort, predicted and observed mortality were strongly correlated. Additionally, the Social Frailty Index meaningfully risk-stratified participants beyond the Charlson score (medical comorbidity index) and the Lee Index (comorbidity and function model). The Social Frailty Index includes age, gender, and eight social characteristics and accurately risk-stratifies older adults. The model improves upon commonly used risk prediction tools and has application in clinical, population health, and research settings.

"There's So Much That They're Enduring": Experiences of Older Adults Undergoing Major Elective Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: This qualitative study aimed to explore the psychosocial experience of older adults undergoing major elective surgery from the perspective of both the patient and family caregiver. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Older adults face unique psychological and social vulnerabilities that can increase susceptibility to poor health outcomes. How these vulnerabilities influence surgical treatment and recovery is understudied in the geriatric surgical population. METHODS: Adults aged 65 and older undergoing a high-risk major elective surgery at the University of California, San Francisco and their caregivers were recruited. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at three time points: 1-2 weeks before surgery, and at 1- and 3-months following surgery. An inductive qualitative approach was used to identify underlying themes. RESULTS: Twenty-five older adult patients (age range 65-82 years, 60% male) and 11 caregivers (age range 53-78 years, 82% female) participated. Three themes were identified. First, older surgical patients experienced significant challenges to emotional well-being both before and after surgery, which had a negative impact on recovery. Second, older adults relied on a combination of personal and social resources to navigate these challenges. Lastly, both patients and caregivers desired more resources from the healthcare system to address "the emotional piece" of surgical treatment and recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults and their caregivers described multiple overlapping challenges to emotional well-being that spanned the course of the perioperative period. Our findings highlight a critical component of perioperative care with significant implications for the recovery of older surgical patients.

One-Year Recovery Among Survivors of Prolonged Severe COVID-19: A National Multicenter Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the long-term effects of severe COVID-19 illness on survivors is essential for effective pandemic recovery planning. Therefore, we investigated impairments among hospitalized adults discharged to long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) for prolonged severe COVID-19 illness who survived 1 year. DESIGN: The Recovery After Transfer to an LTACH for COVID-19 (RAFT COVID) study was a national, multicenter, prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING AND PATIENTS: We included hospitalized English-speaking adults transferred to one of nine LTACHs in the United States between March 2020 and February 2021 and completed a survey. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Validated instruments for impairments and free response questions about recovering. Among 282 potentially eligible participants who provided permission to be contacted, 156 (55.3%) participated (median age, 65; 38.5% female; 61.3% in good prior health; median length of stay of 57 d; 77% mechanically ventilated for a median of 26 d; 42% had a tracheostomy). Approximately two-thirds (64%) had a persistent impairment, including physical (57%), respiratory (49%; 19% on supplemental oxygen), psychiatric (24%), and cognitive impairments (15%). Nearly half (47%) had two or more impairment types. Participants also experienced persistent debility from hospital-acquired complications, including mononeuropathies and pressure ulcers. Participants described protracted recovery, attributing improvements to exercise/rehabilitation, support, and time. While considered life-altering with 78.7% not returning to their usual health, participants expressed gratitude for recovering; 99% returned home and 60% of previously employed individuals returned to work. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly two-thirds of survivors of among the most prolonged severe COVID-19 illness had persistent impairments at 1 year that resembled post-intensive care syndrome after critical illness plus debility from hospital-acquired complications.

Development of the UroARC Surgical Calculator: A Novel Risk Calculator for Older Adults Undergoing Surgery for Bladder Outlet Obstruction.

PURPOSE: Bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) is common in older adults. Many older adults who pursue surgery have additional vulnerabilities affecting surgical risk, including frailty. A clinical tool that builds on frailty to predict surgical outcomes for the spectrum of BOO procedures would be helpful to aid in surgical decision-making but does not currently exist. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries undergoing BOO surgery from 2014 to 2016 were identified and analyzed using the Medicare MedPAR, Outpatient, and Carrier files. Eight different BOO surgery categories were created. Baseline frailty was calculated for each beneficiary using the Claims-Based Frailty Index (CFI). All 93 variables in the CFI and the 17 variables in the Charlson Comorbidity Index were individually entered into stepwise logistic regression models to determine variables most highly predictive of complications. Similar and duplicative variables were combined into categories. Calibration curves and tests of model fit, including C statistics, Brier scores, and Spiegelhalter P values, were calculated to ensure the prognostic accuracy for postoperative complications. RESULTS: In total, 212,543 beneficiaries were identified. Approximately 42.5% were prefrail (0.15 ≤ CFI < 0.25), 8.7% were mildly frail (0.25 ≤ CFI < 0.35), and 1.2% were moderately-to-severely frail (CFI ≥0.35). Using stepwise logistic regression, 13 distinct prognostic variable categories were identified as the most reliable predictors of postoperative outcomes. Most models demonstrated excellent model discrimination and calibration with high C statistic and Spiegelhalter P values, respectively, and high accuracy with low Brier scores. Calibration curves for each outcome demonstrated excellent model fit. CONCLUSIONS: This novel risk assessment tool may help guide surgical prognostication among this vulnerable population.

Sacral neuromodulation in nursing home residents: Predictors of success and complications in a national cohort of older adults.

AIMS: There is limited evidence to support the efficacy of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) for older adults with overactive bladder (OAB). This study aims to report outcomes following SNM among nursing home (NH) residents, a vulnerable population with high rates of frailty and comorbidity. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of long-stay NH residents who underwent a trial of percutaneous nerve evaluation (PNE) or Stage 1 permanent lead placement (Stage 1) between 2014 and 2016. Residents were identified using the Minimum Data Set linked to Medicare claims. The primary outcome of this study was successful progression from trial to implant. Rates of 1-year device explant/revisions were also investigated. RESULTS: Trial of SNM was observed in 1089 residents (mean age: 77.9 years). PNE was performed in 66.9% of residents and 33.2% underwent Stage 1. Of Stage 1 procedures, 23.8% were performed with simultaneous device implant (single-stage). Overall, 53.1% of PNEs and 72.4% of Stage 1 progressed to device implant, which was associated with Stage 1 procedure versus PNE (adjusted relative risk [aRR]: 1.34; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.21-1.49) and female versus male sex (aRR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09-1.46). One-year explant/revision was observed in 9.3% of residents (6.3% for PNE, 10.5% for Stage 1, 20.3% single-stage). Single stage procedure versus PNE was significantly associated with device explant/revision (aRR: 3.4; 95% CI: 1.9-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of NH residents, outcomes following SNM were similar to previous reports of younger healthier cohorts. Surgeons managing older patients with OAB should use caution when selecting patients for single stage SNM procedures.

The Epidemiology of Smoking in Older Adults: A National Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Older smokers account for the greatest tobacco-related morbidity and mortality in the USA, while quitting smoking remains the single most effective preventive health intervention for reducing the risk of smoking-related illness. Yet, knowledge about patterns of smoking and smoking cessation in older adults is lacking. OBJECTIVE: Assess trends in prevalence of cigarette smoking between 1998 and 2018 and identify patterns and predictors of smoking cessation in US older adults. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 55+ enrolled in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study, 1998-2018 MAIN MEASURES: Current smoking was assessed with the question: "Do you smoke cigarettes now?" Quitting smoking was defined as having at least two consecutive waves (between 2 and 4 years) in which participants who were current smokers in 1998 reported they were not currently smoking in subsequent waves. KEY RESULTS: Age-adjusted smoking prevalence decreased from 15.9% in 1998 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.2, 16.7) to 11.2% in 2018 (95% CI 10.4, 12.1). Among 2187 current smokers in 1998 (mean age 64, 56% female), 56% of those living to age 90 had a sustained period of smoking cessation. Smoking less than 10 cigarettes/day was strongly associated with an increased likelihood of quitting smoking (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.3; 95% CI 1.9, 2.8), compared to those who smoked more than 20 cigarettes/day. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevalence among older persons has declined and substantial numbers of older smokers succeed in quitting smoking for a sustained period. These findings highlight the need for continued aggressive efforts at tobacco cessation among older persons.

High Risk of Substance Use Disorder-Related Outcomes in Veterans Released from Correctional Facilities in Mid to Late Life.

BACKGROUND: Veterans Affairs (VA) is likely to encounter a growing number of veterans returning to the community in mid to late life following incarceration (i.e., experiencing reentry). Yet, rates of negative health outcomes due to substance use disorders (SUDs) in this population are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of and risk factors for SUD-related emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations (ED/IPH) and overdose death among older reentry veterans compared with never-incarcerated veterans. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using national VA and Medicare healthcare systems data. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans age ≥50, incarcerated for ≤5 consecutive years, and released between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2017 (N = 18,803), were propensity score-matched 1:5 with never-incarcerated veterans (N = 94,015) on demographic characteristics, reason for Medicare eligibility, and SUD history. MAIN MEASURES: SUD-related ED/IPH (overall and substance-specific) were obtained from in-/outpatient VA health services and CMS data within the year following release date/index date (through September 30, 2018). Overdose death within 1 year was identified using the National Mortality Data Repository. Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression compared risk of SUD-related ED/IPH and overdose death between the two groups. RESULTS: The number of SUD-related ED/IPHs and overdose deaths was 2470 (13.1%) and 72 (0.38%) in the reentry sample versus 4402 (4.7%) and 198 (0.21%) in the never-incarcerated sample, respectively. Mid-to-late-life reentry was associated with higher risk of any SUD-related ED/IPH (13,136.2 vs. 2252.8 per 100,000/year; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.19; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.08, 2.30) and overdose death (382.9 vs. 210.6 per 100,000/year; AHR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.63, 3.08). CONCLUSIONS: Older reentry veterans have more than double the risk of experiencing SUD-related ED/IPH (overall and substance-specific) and overdose death, even after accounting for SUD history and other likely confounders. These findings highlight the vulnerability of this population. Improved knowledge regarding SUD-related negative health outcomes may help to tailor VA reentry programming.

Health care utilization and costs in the years preceding dementia identification.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that health care utilization increases after incident dementia, particularly after dementia diagnosis and toward the end of life; however, less is known about utilization in the years before dementia identification. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we obtained data on n = 5547 beneficiaries from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS)-Medicare linked sample (n = 1241 with and n = 4306 without dementia) to compare longitudinal trends in health care costs and utilization in the 6 years preceding dementia identification relative to a confounder-balanced reference group without dementia. RESULTS: We found that persons with dementia had a greater prevalence of outpatient emergency department (ED), inpatient hospital, skilled nursing, and home health use, and total health care costs in the years preceding dementia identification compared to their similar counterparts without dementia across a comparable timespan in later life. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence to suggest greater healthcare burden may exist well before clinical manifestation and identification of dementia. HIGHLIGHTS: Several studies have documented the tremendous healthcare-related costs of living with dementia, particularly toward the end of life. Dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which, for some, includes a prolonged pre-clinical phase. However, health services research to date has seldom considered the time before incident dementia. This study documents that health care utilization and costs are significantly elevated in the years before incident dementia relative to a demographically-similar comparison group without dementia.

Frailty Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Complications and Need for Repeat Procedures after Sling Surgery in Older Adults.

PURPOSE: Sling surgery is the gold standard treatment for stress urinary incontinence in women. While data support the use of sling surgery in younger and middle-aged women, outcomes in older, frail women are largely unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were examined for all Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years old who underwent sling surgery with or without concomitant prolapse repair from 2014 to 2016. Beneficiaries were stratified using the Claims-Based Frailty Index (CFI) into 4 categories: not frail (CFI <0.15), prefrail (0.15 ≤CFI <0.25), mildly frail (0.25 ≤CFI <0.35) and moderately to severely frail (CFI ≥0.35). Outcomes included rates and relative risk of 30-day complications, 1-year mortality and repeat procedures for persistent incontinence or obstructed voiding at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 54,112 women underwent sling surgery during the study period, 5.2% of whom were mildly to moderately to severely frail. Compared to the not frail group, moderately to severely frail beneficiaries demonstrated an increased adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 30-day complications (56.5%; aRR 2.5, 95% CI: 2.2-2.9) and 1-year mortality (10.5%; aRR 6.7, 95% CI: 4.0-11.2). Additionally, there were higher rates of repeat procedures in mildly to severely frail beneficiaries (6.6%; aRR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.6) compared to beneficiaries who were not frail. CONCLUSIONS: As frailty increased, there was an increased relative risk of 30-day complications, 1-year mortality and need for repeat procedures for persistent incontinence or obstructed voiding at 1 year. While there were fewer sling surgeries in performed frail women, the observed increase in complication rates was significant. Frailty should be strongly considered before pursuing sling surgery in older women.

Geriatric conditions and healthcare utilisation in older adults living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: older HIV-positive adults experience a significant burden of geriatric conditions. However, little is known about the association between geriatric conditions and healthcare utilisation in this population. SETTING: outpatient safety-net HIV clinic in San Francisco. METHODS: in 2013, HIV-positive adults ≥50 years of age underwent geriatric assessment including functional impairment, fall(s)in past year, cognitive impairment (MOCA <26) and low social support (Lubben social network scale ≤12). We reviewed medical records from 2013 through 2017 to capture healthcare utilisation (emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalisations) and used Poisson models to examine the association between geriatric conditions and utilisation events over 4 years. RESULTS: among 192 participants, 81% were male, 51% were white, the median age was 56 (range 50-74), and the median CD4 count was 508 (IQR 338-688) cells/mm3. Sixteen percent of participants had ≥1 activities of daily living (ADL) dependency, 58% had ≥1 instrumental activities of daily living IADL dependency, 43% reported ≥1 falls, 31% had cognitive impairment, and 58% had low social support. Over 4 years, 90 participants (46%) had ≥1 ER visit (total of 289 ER visits), 39 (20%) had ≥1 hospitalisation (total of 68 hospitalisations), and 15 (8%) died. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, IADL dependency and falls were associated with healthcare utilisation (adjusted incidence rate ratios IADL (95%CI): 1.73 (1.33-2.25); falls: 1.51 (1.21-1.87)). CONCLUSION: IADL dependency and history of falls were associated with healthcare utilisation among older HIV-positive adults. Although our results are limited by sample size, improved understanding of the association between geriatric conditions and healthcare utilisation could build support for geriatric HIV care models.

Physical inactivity in older adults with cognitive impairment without dementia: room for improvement.

BACKGROUND: Persons with cognitive impairment without dementia are at high risk of adverse health outcomes. Tailored intervention targeting moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) may reduce these risks. AIMS: To identify the prevalence and predictors of physical inactivity among older adults with cognitive impairment, no dementia (CIND); and estimate the proportion of inactive people with CIND who are capable of greater MVPA. METHODS: We studied 1875 community dwelling participants (over age 65) with CIND in the Health and Retirement Study. Physical inactivity was defined as MVPA ≤ 1x/week. Associations of physical inactivity with sociodemographic, health, and physical function were examined using chi-square and modified Poisson regression. We considered physically inactive participants capable of greater MVPA if they reported MVPA at least 1-3x/month, no difficulty walking several blocks, or no difficulty climbing several flights of stairs. RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of participants with CIND were physically inactive. Variables with the highest age, sex, and race/ethnicity adjusted risk ratio (ARR) for physical inactivity were self-rated health (poor [76.9%]vs. excellent [34.2%]; ARR [95% CI] 2.27 [1.56-3.30]), difficulty walking (across the room [86.5%] vs. none [40.5%]; ARR [95% CI] 2.09 [1.87-2.35]), total assets (lowest quartile [62.6%] vs. highest quartile [43.1%]; ARR [95% CI] 1.54 [1.29-1.83]), and lower education attainment (less than high school [59.6%] vs college graduate [42.8%]; ARR [95% CI] 1.46 [1.17-1.83]). Among physically inactive older adults with CIND, 61% were estimated to be capable of greater MVPA. CONCLUSIONS: Although physical inactivity is prevalent among older adults with CIND, many are capable of greater MVPA. Developing tailored physical activity interventions for this vulnerable population may improve cognitive, health, and quality of life outcomes.

Comparative Outcomes for Pelvic Organ Prolapse Surgery among Nursing Home Residents and Matched Community Dwelling Older Adults.

PURPOSE: We compared short and long-term outcomes between nursing home residents and matched community dwelling older adults undergoing surgery for pelvic organ prolapse. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study evaluates women 65 years old or older undergoing different types of pelvic organ prolapse repairs (anterior/posterior, apical and colpocleisis) between 2007 and 2012 using Medicare claims and the Minimum Data Set for Nursing Home Residents. Long-stay nursing home residents were identified and propensity score matched (1:2) to community dwelling older individuals based on procedure type, age, race and Charlson score. Generalized estimating equation models were created to determine the relative risk of hospital length of stay 3 or more days, 30-day complications and 1-year mortality between the 2 groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were created comparing 1-year mortality between groups. RESULTS: There were 799 nursing home residents and 1,598 matched community dwelling older adults who underwent pelvic organ prolapse surgery and were included in our analyses. Nursing home residents demonstrated statistically significant increased risk for hospital length of stay 3 or more days (38.9% vs 18.6%, adjusted RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.8-2.4), 30-day complications (15.1% vs 3.8%, aRR 3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.3) and 1-year mortality (11.1% vs 3.2%, aRR 3.5, 95% CI 2.5-4.8) compared to community dwelling older adults. Kaplan-Meier curves illustrated similar survival findings at 1 year (11.1%, 95% CI 9.0-13.3 vs 3.2%, 95% CI 2.3-4.1, p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite matching on several characteristics, nursing home residents demonstrated worse short and long-term outcomes compared to community dwelling older adults, suggesting other key vulnerabilities exist that contribute additional surgical risk in this population.

A Novel Metric for Developing Easy-to-Use and Accurate Clinical Prediction Models: The Time-cost Information Criterion.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend that clinicians use clinical prediction models to estimate future risk to guide decisions. For example, predicted fracture risk is a major factor in the decision to initiate bisphosphonate medications. However, current methods for developing prediction models often lead to models that are accurate but difficult to use in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop and test whether a new metric that explicitly balances model accuracy with clinical usability leads to accurate, easier-to-use prediction models. METHODS: We propose a new metric called the Time-cost Information Criterion (TCIC) that will penalize potential predictor variables that take a long time to obtain in clinical settings. To demonstrate how the TCIC can be used to develop models that are easier-to-use in clinical settings, we use data from the 2000 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (n=6311) to develop and compare time to mortality prediction models using a traditional metric (Bayesian Information Criterion or BIC) and the TCIC. RESULTS: We found that the TCIC models utilized predictors that could be obtained more quickly than BIC models while achieving similar discrimination. For example, the TCIC identified a 7-predictor model with a total time-cost of 44 seconds, while the BIC identified a 7-predictor model with a time-cost of 119 seconds. The Harrell C-statistic of the TCIC and BIC 7-predictor models did not differ (0.7065 vs. 0.7088, P=0.11). CONCLUSION: Accounting for the time-costs of potential predictor variables through the use of the TCIC led to the development of an easier-to-use mortality prediction model with similar discrimination.

Life satisfaction among older adults with impairment in activities of daily living.

BACKGROUND: Many older adults experience decline in function, but maintain high levels of life satisfaction. The factors associated with high life satisfaction among those with functional impairment are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: Examine the proportion of older adults with functional impairment reporting high life satisfaction and the predictors of high life satisfaction. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: Health and Retirement Study. SUBJECTS: A total of 7,287 community-dwelling participants, 65 years or older, who completed the leave-behind questionnaire in 2014 or 2016. METHODS: The main predictor was having difficulty or needing help in performing Activities of Daily Living (ADL). The primary outcome was reporting high life satisfaction, defined using a three-item Diener scale. Significant factors were identified using modified Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Those with no ADL impairment were more likely to report high levels of life satisfaction than those with ADL difficulty or ADL dependence (54.4 vs 38.6 vs 27.6%, P < 0.001). Among those with ADL dependence, we identified several factors associated with high life satisfaction, including: not being lonely (38.2 vs 23.2%, ARR = 1.6 (1.2, 2.2)), satisfied with family life (35.1 vs 12.8%, ARR = 2.7 (1.6, 4.4)), and satisfied with financial situation (40.8 vs 16.6%, ARR = 2.5 (1.8, 3.6)). Similar associations were present among those with ADL difficulty. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of older adults with ADL impairment report high life satisfaction, and it is associated with social and economic well-being. Understanding the factors associated with high life satisfaction can lead to clinical practices and policy guidelines that promote life satisfaction in older adults.

A fuller picture of COVID-19 prognosis: the added value of vulnerability measures to predict mortality in hospitalised older adults.

BACKGROUND: Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionally affects older adults, the use of conventional triage tools in acute care settings ignores the key aspects of vulnerability. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the usefulness of adding a rapid vulnerability screening to an illness acuity tool to predict mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Large university hospital dedicated to providing COVID-19 care. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included are 1,428 consecutive inpatients aged ≥50 years. METHODS: Vulnerability was assessed using the modified version of PRO-AGE score (0-7; higher = worse), a validated and easy-to-administer tool that rates physical impairment, recent hospitalisation, acute mental change, weight loss and fatigue. The baseline covariates included age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), a well-known illness acuity tool. Our outcome was time-to-death within 60 days of admission. RESULTS: The patients had a median age of 66 years, and 58% were male. The incidence of 60-day mortality ranged from 22% to 69% across the quartiles of modified PRO-AGE. In adjusted analysis, compared with modified PRO-AGE scores 0-1 ('lowest quartile'), the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for 60-day mortality for modified PRO-AGE scores 2-3, 4 and 5-7 were 1.4 (1.1-1.9), 2.0 (1.5-2.7) and 2.8 (2.1-3.8), respectively. The modified PRO-AGE predicted different mortality risk levels within each stratum of NEWS and improved the discrimination of mortality prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: Adding vulnerability to illness acuity improved accuracy of predicting mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Combining tools such as PRO-AGE and NEWS may help stratify the risk of mortality from COVID-19.

Association of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting vs Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Memory Decline in Older Adults Undergoing Coronary Revascularization.

Importance: It is uncertain whether coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with cognitive decline in older adults compared with a nonsurgical method of coronary revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI]). Objective: To compare the change in the rate of memory decline after CABG vs PCI. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling participants in the Health and Retirement Study, who underwent CABG or PCI between 1998 and 2015 at age 65 years or older. Data were modeled for up to 5 years preceding and 10 years following revascularization or until death, drop out, or the 2016-2017 interview wave. The date of final follow-up was November 2017. Exposures: CABG (including on and off pump) or PCI, ascertained from Medicare fee-for-service billing records. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a summary measure of cognitive test scores and proxy cognition reports that were performed biennially in the Health and Retirement Study, referred to as memory score, normalized as a z score (ie, mean of 0, SD of 1 in a reference population of adults aged ≥72 years). Memory score was analyzed using multivariable linear mixed-effects models, with a prespecified subgroup analysis of on-pump and off-pump CABG. The minimum clinically important difference was a change of 1 SD of the population-level rate of memory decline (0.048 memory units/y). Results: Of 1680 participants (mean age at procedure, 75 years; 41% female), 665 underwent CABG (168 off pump) and 1015 underwent PCI. In the PCI group, the mean rate of memory decline was 0.064 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.052 to 0.078) before the procedure and 0.060 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.048 to 0.071) after the procedure (within-group change, 0.004 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.010 to 0.018]). In the CABG group, the mean rate of memory decline was 0.049 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.033 to 0.065) before the procedure and 0.059 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.047 to 0.072) after the procedure (within-group change, -0.011 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.029 to 0.008]). The between-group difference-in-differences estimate for memory decline for PCI vs CABG was 0.015 memory units/y (95% CI, -0.008 to 0.038; P = .21). There was statistically significant increase in the rate of memory decline after off-pump CABG compared with after PCI (difference-in-differences: mean increase in the rate of decline of 0.046 memory units/y [95% CI, 0.008 to 0.084] after off-pump CABG), but not after on-pump CABG compared with PCI (difference-in-differences: mean slowing of decline of 0.003 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.024 to 0.031] after on-pump CABG). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults undergoing coronary revascularization with CABG or PCI, the type of revascularization procedure was not significantly associated with differences in the change of rate of memory decline.

Heterogeneous Exposure Associations in Observational Cohort Studies: The Example of Blood Pressure in Older Adults.

Heterogeneous exposure associations (HEAs) can be defined as differences in the association of an exposure with an outcome among subgroups that differ by a set of characteristics. In this article, we intend to foster discussion of HEAs in the epidemiologic literature and present a variant of the random forest algorithm that can be used to identify HEAs. We demonstrate the use of this algorithm in the setting of the association between systolic blood pressure and death in older adults. The training set included pooled data from the baseline examination of the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1993), the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (1997-1998), and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (1998-1999). The test set included data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2002). The hazard ratios ranged from 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.37) per 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure among men aged ≤67 years with diastolic blood pressure greater than 80 mm Hg to 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.03) among women with creatinine concentration ≤0.7 mg/dL and a history of hypertension. HEAs have the potential to improve our understanding of disease mechanisms in diverse populations and guide the design of randomized controlled trials to control exposures in heterogeneous populations.

Frailty after lung transplantation is associated with impaired health-related quality of life and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplantation and related medications are associated with pathobiological changes that can induce frailty, a state of decreased physiological reserve. Causes of persistent or emergent frailty after lung transplantation, and whether such transplant-related frailty is associated with key outcomes, are unknown. METHODS: Frailty and health-related quality of life (HRQL) were prospectively measured repeatedly for up to 3 years after lung transplantation. Frailty, quantified by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), was tested as a time-dependent binary and continuous predictor. The association of transplant-related frailty with HRQL and mortality was evaluated using mixed effects and Cox regression models, respectively, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, diagnosis, and for body mass index and lung function as time-dependent covariates. We tested the association between measures of body composition, malnutrition, renal dysfunction and immunosuppressants on the development of frailty using mixed effects models with time-dependent predictors and lagged frailty outcomes. RESULTS: Among 259 adults (56% male; mean age 55.9±12.3 years), transplant-related frailty was associated with lower HRQL. Frailty was also associated with a 2.5-fold higher mortality risk (HR 2.51; 95% CI 1.21 to 5.23). Further, each 1-point worsening in SPPB was associated, on average, with a 13% higher mortality risk (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.23). Secondarily, we found that sarcopenia, underweight and obesity, malnutrition, and renal dysfunction were associated with the development of frailty after transplant. CONCLUSIONS: Transplant-related frailty is associated with lower HRQL and higher mortality in lung recipients. Abnormal body composition, malnutrition and renal dysfunction may contribute to the development of frailty after transplant. Confirming the role of these potential contributors and developing interventions to mitigate frailty may improve lung transplant success.

Advance Care Planning Prior to Death in Older Adults with Hip Fracture.

BACKGROUND: Although hip fractures in older adults are associated with a high degree of mortality and disability, the use of advance care planning (ACP) in this population is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of ACP and need for surrogate decision-making prior to death in older adults with hip fracture and to identify factors associated with ACP. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) interviews linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims data. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred six decedent participants aged 65 or older who sustained a hip fracture during HRS enrollment and had a proxy participate in the exit HRS survey. MAIN MEASURES: Survey responses by proxies were used to determine ACP, defined by either advance directive completion or surrogate designation, and to assess decision-making at the end of life. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze correlates of ACP. KEY RESULTS: Prior to death, 54.9% of all participants had an advance directive and 68.9% had designated a surrogate decision-maker; however, 24.5% had no ACP. Of the total cohort, 32.5% required decisions to be made about treatment at the end of life and lacked capacity to make these decisions themselves. In this subset, 19.9% had no ACP. In all participants, ACP was less likely in non-white individuals (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.14, 95% CI 0.06-0.31), those with less than a high school education (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.35-0.97), and those with a net worth below the median of the cohort (aOR 0.49, 95% CI 0.26-0.72). No clinical factors were found to be associated with ACP completion prior to death. CONCLUSIONS: A considerable number of older adults with hip fracture required surrogate decision-making at the end of life, of whom one fifth had no ACP prior to death. Clinicians providing care for these patients are uniquely poised to address ACP.

Patient-reported measures of well-being in older multiple myeloma patients: use of secondary data source.

BACKGROUND: Changes in well-being of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) before and after diagnosis have not been quantified. AIMS: Explore the use of secondary data to examine the changes in the well-being of older patients with MM. METHODS: We used the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), linked to Medicare claims to identify older MM patients. We compared patient-reported measures (PRM), including physical impairment, sensory impairment, and patient experience (significant pain, self-rated health, depression) in the interviews before and after MM diagnosis using McNemar's test. We propensity-matched each MM patient to five HRS participants without MM diagnosis based on baseline characteristics. We compared the change in PRM between the MM patients and their matches. RESULTS: We identified 92 HRS patients with MM diagnosis (mean age = 74.6, SD = 8.4). Among the surviving patients, there was a decline in well-being across most measures, including ADL difficulty (23% to 40%, p value = 0.016), poor or fair self-rated health (38% to 61%, p value = 0.004), and depression (15% to 30%, p value = 0.021). Surviving patients reported worse health than participants without MM across most measures, including ADL difficulty (40% vs. 27%, p value = 0.04), significant pain (38% vs. 22%, p value = 0.01), and depression (29% vs. 11%, p value = 0.003). DISCUSSION: Secondary data were used to identify patients with MM diagnosis, and examine changes across multiple measures of well-being. MM diagnosis negatively affects several aspects of patients' well-being, and these declines are larger than those experienced by similar participants without MM. CONCLUSION: The results of this study are valuable addition to understanding the experience of patients with MM, despite several data limitations.