Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability.

The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.

Proof of Principle: Immobilisation of Robust CuII3 TbIII -Macrocycles on Small, Suitably Pre-functionalised Gold Nanoparticles.

In a proof-of-principle study, a soluble macrocyclic single-molecule magnet (SMM) containing a CuII3 TbIII magnetic core was covalently grafted onto small gold nanoparticles pre-functionalised with carboxylate-terminated tethers. A modified microemulsion method allowed production of the small and monodisperse nanoparticles (approximately 3.5 nm in diameter) for the chemisorption of a large amount of intact macrocyclic complexes in the hybrid system.

Insights into the Partitioning Behavior of Secondary Surfactants in a Microemulsion-Based Synthesis of Metal Nanoparticles: A DLS and 2D NMR Spectroscopic Investigation.

Diffusion-ordered NMR spectroscopy (DOSY) and nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY) have been used to explore the diffusion and partitioning behavior of secondary surfactants added to suspensions of reverse micelles (RMs) containing either silver or gold nanoparticles (NPs), with an aim of advancing our understanding of the mechanism of metal NP extraction and/or surface functionalization with specific capping agents as performed during a microemulsion-based synthesis. We have coupled these NMR techniques with corresponding dynamic light scattering (DLS) measurements of RMs, with and without encapsulated metal NPs, upon addition of secondary surfactants. Using oleylamine (OAm), oleic acid (OA), dodecylamine (DDAm), and dodecanethiol (DDT), we show that all four secondary surfactants can rapidly diffuse into/out of the RM environment with their head groups in close proximity to the RM interior and encapsulated water molecules; however, surfactant molecules containing a terminal -NH2 or -COOH group undergo a persistent association with the molecules of the RMs, thus solubilizing and partially sequestering a portion of the total concentration of these secondary agents within the RM interface for a lengthened period of time (in relation to the time frame of the DOSY experiments) and slowing their rate of exchange with freely diffusing molecules in the bulk solvent. The extraction of Ag or Au NPs from RMs into organic phase was determined to be critically dependent on the type and concentration of secondary surfactant added to the system, with DDT proving to be most efficient for the extraction of Ag NPs, while OA was shown to be most efficient for Au NPs. Consideration of the results obtained from this particular combination of techniques has provided new knowledge with respect to dynamic metal NP-containing microemulsion systems.

Dynamic Greenland ice sheet driven by pCO2 variations across the Pliocene Pleistocene transition.

It is generally considered that the perennial glaciation of Greenland lasting several orbital cycles began around 2.7 Ma along with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG). Both data and model studies have demonstrated that a decline in atmospheric pCO2 was instrumental in establishing a perennial Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), yet models have generally used simplistic pCO2 constraints rather than data-inferred pCO2 evolution. Here, using a method designed for the long-term coupling of climate and cryosphere models and pCO2 scenarios from different studies, we highlight the pivotal role of pCO2 on the GrIS expansion across the Plio-Pleistocene Transition (PPT, 3.0-2.5 Ma), in particular in the range between 280 and 320 ppm. Good qualitative agreement is obtained between various IRD reconstructions and some of the possible evolutions of the GrIS simulated by our model. Our results underline the dynamism of the GrIS waxing and waning under pCO2 levels similar to or lower than today, which supports recent evidence of a dynamic GrIS during the Plio-Pleistocene.