Bisoprolol in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease at High Risk of Exacerbation: The BICS Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Observational studies report that ß-blocker use may be associated with reduced risk of COPD exacerbations. However, a recent trial reported that metoprolol did not reduce COPD exacerbations and increased COPD exacerbations requiring hospital admission. Objective: To test whether bisoprolol decreased COPD exacerbations in people with COPD at high risk of exacerbations. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Bisoprolol in COPD Study (BICS) was a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial conducted in 76 UK sites (45 primary care clinics and 31 secondary clinics). Patients with COPD who had at least moderate airflow obstruction on spirometry (ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration [FEV1] to forced vital capacity <0.7; FEV1 <80% predicted) and at least 2 COPD exacerbations treated with oral corticosteroids, antibiotics, or both in the prior 12 months were enrolled from October 17, 2018, to May 31, 2022. Follow-up concluded on April 18, 2023. Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned to bisoprolol (n = 261) or placebo (n = 258). Bisoprolol was started at 1.25 mg orally daily and was titrated as tolerated during 4 sessions to a maximum dose of 5 mg/d, using a standardized protocol. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary clinical outcome was the number of patient-reported COPD exacerbations treated with oral corticosteroids, antibiotics, or both during the 1-year treatment period. Safety outcomes included serious adverse events and adverse reactions. Results: Although the trial planned to enroll 1574 patients, recruitment was suspended from March 16, 2020, to July 31, 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Two patients in each group were excluded postrandomization. Among the 515 patients (mean [SD] age, 68 [7.9] years; 274 men [53%]; mean FEV1, 50.1%), primary outcome data were available for 514 patients (99.8%) and 371 (72.0%) continued taking the study drug. The primary outcome of patient-reported COPD exacerbations treated with oral corticosteroids, antibiotics, or both was 526 in the bisoprolol group, with a mean exacerbation rate of 2.03/y, vs 513 exacerbations in the placebo group, with a mean exacerbation rate of 2.01/y. The adjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.84-1.13; P = .72). Serious adverse events occurred in 37 of 255 patients in the bisoprolol group (14.5%) vs 36 of 251 in the placebo group (14.3%; relative risk, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.62-1.66; P = .96). Conclusions and Relevance: Among people with COPD at high risk of exacerbation, treatment with bisoprolol did not reduce the number of self-reported COPD exacerbations requiring treatment with oral corticosteroids, antibiotics, or both. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN10497306.

Contemporary hormonal contraception and cervical cancer in women of reproductive age.

To determine cervical cancer risk associated with contemporary hormonal contraceptives, we conducted a cohort study of women aged 15 to 49 living in Denmark from 1995 to 2014, using routinely collected information about redeemed prescriptions, incident cancer and potential confounders. Poisson regression calculated adjusted cervical cancer risks among different contraceptive user groups by duration of use, time since last use, hormonal content and cancer histology. During >20 million person-years, 3643 incident cervical cancers occurred. Ever users of any hormonal contraceptives compared to never users had a relative risk (RR) of 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.29). Increased risks were seen in current or recent users of any hormonal: RR 1.30 (95% CI 1.20-1.42) and combined: RR 1.40 (95% CI 1.28-1.53), but not progestin-only contraception: RR 0.91 (95% CI 0.78-1.07). Current or recent users of any hormonal contraception had an increased risk of both adenocarcinoma (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.60) and squamous cancer (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.19-1.44). The risk pattern among any hormonal and combined contraceptive users generally increased with longer duration of use and declined after stopping, possibly taking longer to disappear among prolonged users. Combined products containing different progestins had similar risks. Approximately one extra cervical cancer occurred for every 14 700 women using combined contraceptives for 1 year. Most women in our study were not vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. Our findings reinforce the urgent need for global interventions such as systematic screening, treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and HPV vaccination programmes to prevent cervical cancer, especially among users of combined contraceptives.

Contemporary Hormonal Contraception and the Risk of Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about whether contemporary hormonal contraception is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. METHODS: We assessed associations between the use of hormonal contraception and the risk of invasive breast cancer in a nationwide prospective cohort study involving all women in Denmark between 15 and 49 years of age who had not had cancer or venous thromboembolism and who had not received treatment for infertility. Nationwide registries provided individually updated information about the use of hormonal contraception, breast-cancer diagnoses, and potential confounders. RESULTS: Among 1.8 million women who were followed on average for 10.9 years (a total of 19.6 million person-years), 11,517 cases of breast cancer occurred. As compared with women who had never used hormonal contraception, the relative risk of breast cancer among all current and recent users of hormonal contraception was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 1.26). This risk increased from 1.09 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.23) with less than 1 year of use to 1.38 (95% CI, 1.26 to 1.51) with more than 10 years of use (P=0.002). After discontinuation of hormonal contraception, the risk of breast cancer was still higher among the women who had used hormonal contraceptives for 5 years or more than among women who had not used hormonal contraceptives. Risk estimates associated with current or recent use of various oral combination (estrogen-progestin) contraceptives varied between 1.0 and 1.6. Women who currently or recently used the progestin-only intrauterine system also had a higher risk of breast cancer than women who had never used hormonal contraceptives (relative risk, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.33). The overall absolute increase in breast cancers diagnosed among current and recent users of any hormonal contraceptive was 13 (95% CI, 10 to 16) per 100,000 person-years, or approximately 1 extra breast cancer for every 7690 women using hormonal contraception for 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of breast cancer was higher among women who currently or recently used contemporary hormonal contraceptives than among women who had never used hormonal contraceptives, and this risk increased with longer durations of use; however, absolute increases in risk were small. (Funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation.).

Does treatment guided by exhaled nitric oxide fraction improve outcomes in subgroups of children with asthma?

INTRODUCTION: Exhaled nitric oxide fraction (F ENO), a biomarker of eosinophilic airway inflammation, may be useful to guide asthma treatment. F ENO-guided treatment may be more effective in certain subgroups for improving asthma outcomes compared to standard treatment. METHODS: An individual patient data analysis was performed using data from seven randomised clinical trials (RCTs) which used F ENO to guide asthma treatment. The incidence of an asthma exacerbation and loss of control, and the time to first exacerbation and loss of control were described between five subgroups of RCT participants. RESULTS: Data were available in 1112 RCT participants. Among those not treated with leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRA), but not among those who were treated with LTRA, F ENO-guided treatment was associated with reduced exacerbation risk (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.49-0.94), longer time to first exacerbation (hazard ratio (HR) 0.76, 95% CI 0.57-0.99) and borderline reduced risk for loss of control (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.49-1.00). Nonobese children, compared to obese children, were less likely to lose asthma control when treatment was guided by F ENO (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.48-0.99) and time to loss of control was longer (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Asthma treatment guided by F ENO may be more effective in achieving better asthma outcomes for patients who are not treated with LTRA and who are not obese, compared to standard practice.

Methodology and reporting characteristics of studies using interrupted time series design in healthcare.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard when evaluating the causal effects of healthcare interventions. When RCTs cannot be used (e.g. ethically difficult), the interrupted time series (ITS) design is a possible alternative. ITS is one of the strongest quasi-experimental designs. The aim of this methodological study was to describe how ITS designs were being used, the design characteristics, and reporting in the healthcare setting. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE for reports of ITS designs published in 2015 which had a minimum of two data points collected pre-intervention and one post-intervention. There was no restriction on participants, language of study, or type of outcome. Data were summarised using appropriate summary statistics. RESULTS: One hundred and sixteen studies were included in the study. Interventions evaluated were mainly programs 41 (35%) and policies 32 (28%). Data were usually collected at monthly intervals, 74 (64%). Of the 115 studies that reported an analysis, the most common method was segmented regression (78%), 55% considered autocorrelation, and only seven reported a sample size calculation. Estimation of intervention effects were reported as change in slope (84%) and change in level (70%) and 21% reported long-term change in levels. CONCLUSIONS: This methodological study identified problems in the reporting of design features and results of ITS studies, and highlights the need for future work in the development of formal reporting guidelines and methodological work.

"It's just in that sea of things that I never cared about": perception of hepatitis B amongst university students in Aberdeen, North-East Scotland.

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of international students at UK universities are from regions with medium to high hepatitis B prevalence rates. Understanding the perception of students regarding hepatitis B infection is crucial for the development of appropriate information and services for this population group. METHODS: Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted with students from the University of Aberdeen. The following key areas were covered: knowledge, awareness, practices including testing, cultural and social aspects and general attitudes to health information and services. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded using a framework analysis approach. RESULTS: The participants acknowledged hepatitis B to be a serious disease yet did not consider themselves to be at risk. They felt able to go to their General Practitioner if concerned about hepatitis B but emphasised that there was no indication that this was required. There was a general lack of knowledge about the disease including confusion over other types of hepatitis. This was linked to the perceived lack of attention given to hepatitis B in, for example, sexual health education and disease awareness raising campaigns. The participants expressed a desire for information on hepatitis B to be relevant to the student population, easy to understand, socially acceptable and easily accessible on student portals and social media platforms. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that students in Aberdeen, North East Scotland lack knowledge and awareness of hepatitis B and do not perceive themselves as being at risk of hepatitis B infection. There is a need for more tailored hepatitis B messages to be incorporated into a range of contexts with clearer risk communication for the student population.

First trimester fetal size and prescribed asthma medication at 15†years of age.

There is increasing evidence that antenatal factors predispose to childhood asthma. We tested the hypothesis that reduced first trimester fetal size is associated with increased risk for asthma at 15 years of age.Fetal size in the first and second trimester was ascertained by ultrasound scan. The primary outcome of being dispensed one or more asthma medications by the family doctor in the year before the 15th birthday was determined from routinely acquired dispensing data.Dispensing data were available for 1699 (88% of the original cohort) participants at 15 years of age and questionnaire data for 750 (39%). Each reduction in z-score for first trimester size was associated with increased odds for dispensed asthma medication at 15 years of age (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54) and self-reported use of asthma medications (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.16-2.08). Overall, first and second trimester size and forced expiratory volume in 1 s at ages 5, 10 and 15 years were reduced for those dispensed asthma medications compared with those not dispensed asthma medications (p=0.003).Antenatal factors that are active by the first trimester may contribute to respiratory well-being throughout childhood. Dropout from a birth cohort study can overestimate of the magnitude of any true association.

Effect of Theophylline as Adjunct to Inhaled Corticosteroids on Exacerbations in Patients With COPD: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major global health issue and theophylline is used extensively. Preclinical investigations have demonstrated that low plasma concentrations (1-5 mg/L) of theophylline enhance antiinflammatory effects of corticosteroids in COPD. Objective: To investigate the effectiveness of adding low-dose theophylline to inhaled corticosteroids in COPD. Design, Setting, and Participants: The TWICS (theophylline with inhaled corticosteroids) trial was a pragmatic, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial that enrolled patients with COPD between February 6, 2014, and August 31, 2016. Final follow-up ended on August 31, 2017. Participants had a ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) of less than 0.7 with at least 2 exacerbations (treated with antibiotics, oral corticosteroids, or both) in the previous year and were using an inhaled corticosteroid. This study included 1578 participants in 121 UK primary and secondary care sites. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive low-dose theophylline (200 mg once or twice per day) to provide plasma concentrations of 1 to 5 mg/L (determined by ideal body weight and smoking status) (n = 791) or placebo (n = 787). Main Outcomes and Measures: The number of participant-reported moderate or severe exacerbations treated with antibiotics, oral corticosteroids, or both over the 1-year treatment period. Results: Of the 1567 participants analyzed, mean (SD) age was 68.4 (8.4) years and 54% (843) were men. Data for evaluation of the primary outcome were available for 1536 participants (98%) (772 in the theophylline group; 764 in the placebo group). In total, there were 3430 exacerbations: 1727 in the theophylline group (mean, 2.24 [95% CI, 2.10-2.38] exacerbations per year) vs 1703 in the placebo group (mean, 2.23 [95% CI, 2.09-2.37] exacerbations per year); unadjusted mean difference, 0.01 (95% CI, -0.19 to 0.21) and adjusted incidence rate ratio, 0.99 (95% CI, 0.91-1.08). Serious adverse events in the theophylline and placebo groups included cardiac, 2.4% vs 3.4%; gastrointestinal, 2.7% vs 1.3%; and adverse reactions such as nausea (10.9% vs 7.9%) and headaches (9.0% vs 7.9%). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults with COPD at high risk of exacerbation treated with inhaled corticosteroids, the addition of low-dose theophylline, compared with placebo, did not reduce the number COPD exacerbations over a 1-year period. The findings do not support the use of low-dose theophylline as adjunctive therapy to inhaled corticosteroids for the prevention of COPD exacerbations. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN27066620.

A cancer geography paradox? Poorer cancer outcomes with longer travelling times to healthcare facilities despite prompter diagnosis and treatment: a data-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Rurality and distance from cancer treatment centres have been shown to negatively impact cancer outcomes, but the mechanisms remain obscure. METHODS: We analysed the impact of travel time to key healthcare facilities and mainland/island residency on the cancer diagnostic pathway (treatment within 62 days of referral, and within 31 days of diagnosis) and 1-year mortality using a data-linkage study with 12 339 patients. RESULTS: After controlling for important confounders, mainland patients with more than 60 min of travelling time to their cancer treatment centre ((OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.25-1.61) and island dwellers (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09-1.59) were more likely to commence cancer treatment within 62 days of general practitioner (GP) referral and within 31 days of their cancer diagnosis compared with those living within 15 min. Island-dweller patients were more likely to have their diagnosis and treatment started on the same or next day (OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.31-2.25). Increased travelling time to a cancer treatment centre was associated with increased mortality to 1 year (30-59 min (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.05-1.41), >60 min (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.03-1.36), island dweller (HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.97-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Island dwelling and greater mainland travel burden was associated with more rapid cancer diagnosis and treatment following GP referral even after adjustment for advanced disease; however, these patients also experienced a survival disadvantage compared with those living nearer. Cancer services may need to be better configured to suit the different needs of dispersed populations.

Does emergency presentation of cancer represent poor performance in primary care? Insights from a novel analysis of linked primary and secondary care data.

BACKGROUND: People diagnosed with cancer following emergency presentation have poorer short-term survival. To what extent this signifies a missed opportunity for earlier diagnosis in primary care remains unclear as little detailed data exist on the patient/general practitioner interaction beforehand. METHODS: Analysis of primary care and regional data for 1802 cancer patients from Northeast Scotland. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for patient and GP practice predictors of emergency presentation. Qualitative context coding of primary care interaction before emergency presentation. RESULTS: Emergency presentations equalled 20% (n=365). Twenty-eight per cent had no relevant prior GP contact. Of those with prior GP contact 30% were admitted while waiting to be seen in secondary care, and 19% were missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis. Associated predictors: no prior GP contact (OR=3.89; CI 95% 2.14-7.09); having lung (OR=23.24; 95% CI 7.92-68.21), colorectal (OR=18.49; CI 95% 6.60-51.82) and upper GI cancer (OR=18.97; CI 95% 6.08-59.23); ethnicity (OR=2.78; CI 95% 1.27-6.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our novel approach has revealed that emergency cancer presentation is more complex than previously thought. Patient delay, prolonged referral pathways and missed opportunities by GPs all contribute, but emergency presentation can also represent effective care. Resources should be used proportionately to raise public and GP awareness and improve post-referral pathways.

Lifetime cancer risk and combined oral contraceptives: the Royal College of General Practitioners' Oral Contraception Study.

BACKGROUND: Oral contraceptives have been used by hundreds of millions of women around the world. Important questions remain regarding the very long-term cancer risks that are associated with oral contraception. Despite previous research, important questions remain about the safety of these contraceptives: (1) How long do endometrial, ovarian, and colorectal cancer benefits persist? (2) Does combined oral contraceptive use during the reproductive years produce new cancer risks later in life? (3) What is the overall balance of cancer among past users as they enter the later stages of their lives? OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the very long-term cancer risks or benefits associated with the use of combined oral contraceptives, including the estimated overall life-time balance. STUDY DESIGN: The 46,022 women who were recruited to the UK Royal College of General Practitioners' Oral Contraception Study in 1968 and 1969 were observed for up to 44 years. Directly standardized rates of specific and any cancer were calculated for "ever" and "never" users of combined oral contraceptives; data were standardized for age, parity, social class, and smoking. Attributable risk and preventive fraction percentages were calculated. Poisson regression that adjusted for the same variables was used to estimate incidence rate ratios between ever and never users and to examine effects by time since last oral contraceptive use. RESULTS: There were 4661 ever users with at least 1 cancer during 884,895 woman-years of observation and 2341 never users with at least 1 cancer during 388,505 woman-years of observation. Ever use of oral contraceptives was associated with reduced colorectal (incidence rate ratio, 0.81; 99% confidence interval, 0.66-0.99), endometrial (incidence rate ratio, 0.66; 99% confidence interval, 0.48-0.89), ovarian (incidence rate ratio, 0.67; 99% confidence interval, 0.50-0.89), and lymphatic and hematopoietic cancer (incidence rate ratio, 0.74; 99% confidence interval, 0.58-0.94). An increased risk of lung cancer was seen only among ever users who smoked at recruitment. An increased risk of breast and cervical cancer that was seen in current and recent users appeared to be lost within approximately 5 years of stopping oral contraception, with no evidence of either cancer recurring at increased risk in ever users with time. There was no evidence of new cancer risks appearing later in life among women who had used oral contraceptives. Thus, the overall balance of cancer risk among past users of oral contraceptives was neutral with the increased risks counterbalanced by the endometrial, ovarian, and colorectal cancer benefits that persist at least 30 years. CONCLUSION: Most women who choose to use oral contraceptives do not expose themselves to long-term cancer harms; instead, with some cancers, many women benefit from important reductions of risk that persist for many years after stopping.

Occupational airborne exposure in relation to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and lung function in individuals without childhood wheezing illness: A 50-year cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from longitudinal population-based studies relating occupational exposure to the full range of different forms of airborne pollutants and lung function and airway obstruction is limited. OBJECTIVE: To relate self-reported COPD and lung function impairment to occupational exposure to different forms of airborne chemical pollutants in individuals who did not have childhood wheeze. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was randomly selected in 1964 at age 10-15 years and followed up in 1989, 1995, 2001 and 2014 (aged 58-64) by spirometry and respiratory questionnaire. Occupational histories were recorded in 2014 and occupational exposures assigned using an airborne chemical job exposure matrix. The risk of COPD and lung function impairment was analyzed in subjects, who did not have childhood wheeze, using logistic and linear regression and linear mixed effects models. RESULTS: 237 subjects without childhood wheeze (mean age 60.6 years, 47% male) were analyzed. There was no association between any respiratory outcomes and exposure to gases, fibers, mists or mineral dusts and no consistent associations with exposure to fumes. Reduced FEV1 was associated with longer duration (years) of exposure to any of the six main pollutant forms - vapors, gases, dusts, fumes, fibers and mists (VGDFFiM) with evidence of a dose-response relationship (p-trend=0.004). Exposure to biological dusts was associated with self-reported COPD and FEV1

Outcomes of Childhood Asthma and Wheezy Bronchitis. A 50-Year Cohort Study.

RATIONALE: Cohort studies suggest that airflow obstruction is established early in life, manifests as childhood asthma and wheezy bronchitis, and continues into early adulthood. Although an association between childhood asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in later life has been demonstrated, it is unclear if childhood wheezy bronchitis is associated with COPD. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether childhood wheezy bronchitis increases the risk of COPD in the seventh decade. METHODS: A cohort of children recruited in 1964 at age 10 to 15 years, which was followed up in 1989, 1995, and 2001, was followed up again in 2014 when at age 60 to 65 years. Discrete time-to-event and linear mixed effects models were used. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: FEV1 and FVC were measured. COPD was defined as post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC <0.7. Childhood wheezing phenotype was related to 1989, 1995, 2001, and 2014 spirometry data. Three hundred thirty subjects, mean age 61 years, were followed up: 38 with childhood asthma; 53 with childhood wheezy bronchitis; and 239 control subjects (of whom 57 developed adulthood-onset wheeze between ages 16 and 46 yr). In adjusted multivariate analyses, childhood asthma was associated with an increased risk of COPD (odds ratio, 6.37; 95% confidence interval, 3.73-10.94), as was childhood wheezy bronchitis (odd ratio 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.91). The COPD risk increased with childhood asthma, and wheezy bronchitis was associated with reduced FEV1 that was evident by the fifth decade and not an accelerated rate of FEV1 decline. In contrast, adulthood-onset wheeze was associated with accelerated FEV1 decline. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood wheezy bronchitis and asthma are associated with an increased risk of COPD and reduced ventilatory function.

Assessment Following Distal Radius Fractures: A Comparison of 4 Scoring Systems, Visual Numerical Scales, and Objective Measurements.

PURPOSE: To compare 4 recognized upper-limb scoring systems that are regularly used to assess wrist function after injury. METHODS: We reviewed 116 patients 6 months after volar locking plate fixation for distal radius fractures. Two purely subjective and 2 composite scoring systems composed of both subjective and objective components were compared along with visual numerical scores for pain and function and objective measures of function. Each score was standardized into a scale from 0 to 100. RESULTS: The distribution of the standardized total scores was statistically significantly different and indicated marked variability between scoring systems and therefore the information provided. Overall, the subjective scoring systems correlated well with each other and with both visual numerical scores for pain and function. However, the composite scores and objective measures of function correlated poorly with the subjective scores including the visual numerical scores. CONCLUSIONS: Results from wrist scoring systems should be interpreted with caution. It is important to ensure that the component parts of each score are taken into consideration separately because total scores may be misleading. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Composite scores may be outdated and should be avoided.

Using 'dead or dependent' as an outcome measure in clinical trials in Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Simple, robust, sensitive and clinically meaningful outcome measures are required for neuroprotective trials in Parkinson's disease (PD). We explored the feasibility of a composite binary outcome measure, 'dead or dependent', in such trials using data from a prospective follow-up study of an incident cohort of PD patients. METHODS: Two hundred incident patients had an annual follow-up, including assessment of the Hoehn-Yahr stage (H-Y) and Schwab and England Activities of Daily Living Scale (S&E). Annual scores were converted into binary variables (H-Y <3 vs H-Y ≥3, and S&E ≥80% vs S&E <80%). A new outcome of 'dead or dependent' was also created, with dependence in activities of daily living defined as S&E <80%. Using these data, sample sizes were calculated for a hypothetical three-year randomised trial in which the trial outcome was defined by a binary clinical variable, all-cause mortality, or PD-related mortality. RESULTS: At 3 years, 18.0% of patients were dead and 38.4% were dead or dependent. At 80% power, large sample sizes were required if PD-related mortality (n=1938 per study arm) or all-cause mortality (n=734) were used as the outcome, even for large treatment effects (30% reduction in relative risk). The new outcome of 'death or dependency' required the smallest sample sizes of all the outcome measures (n=277 for 30% reduction in relative risk, 627 for a 20% reduction). CONCLUSIONS: 'Death or dependency' is a feasible and potentially useful outcome measure in PD trials of neuroprotective agents, but further work is required to validate its use and define dependency.

Normative data for the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale.

PURPOSE: The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is widely used in both research and clinical contexts. However, UK normative data from HADS remain limited. In our recent review of the literature, only six reports from four studies were identified as reporting UK normative data and all had limitations. The aim of our study was to use a large population-based dataset to address this. METHODS: The Epidemiology of Functional Disorders Study is a large longitudinal population-based study carried out in Northwest England. All adults aged between 25 and 65 years registered with three general practices were sent a self-completion questionnaire which contained the HADS and other health-related instruments. Scores were calculated for participants completing all items on each sub-scale (anxiety 6,189 participants and depression 6,198 participants). Scores are presented by gender and by 5-year age groups. Percentile scores were also generated. RESULTS: The median anxiety score was higher in women [6, interquartile range (IQR) 4-9] than in men (5, IQR 2-8) and increased with age in both groups. The median depression score for both women and men was 3 (IQR 1-6). CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the largest population-based study providing UK normative data from the HADS. While our data confirm some of the normative data reported previously, subtle and important differences emerged, particularly at the upper end of the percentile scores. Due to the nature of our study design and the number of participants sampled, we believe that our data are likely to be more representative of the UK population than existing published normative values.

Estimating the burden of minor ailment consultations in general practices and emergency departments through retrospective review of routine data in North East Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Minor ailment attendances in general practices and emergency departments (EDs) place significant burden on health care resources. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence and type of minor ailment consultations for adults in general practice and ED that could be managed in a community pharmacy. METHODS: Retrospective review of routine data from general practices (n = 2) and one ED in North East Scotland. Two independent consensus panels assessed each consultation summary to determine whether it represented a minor ailment. Outcomes included prevalence of consultations for minor ailments in general practice and ED and frequency of different minor ailment type that could be managed in community pharmacies. RESULTS: In total, of the 494 general practice and 550 ED consultations assessed, 13.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.6-25.9%] and 5.3% (95% CI: 4.0-8.0%), respectively, were categorized as minor ailments suitable for management in community pharmacies. Consensus among panel members was moderate for general practice consultations, but fair to poor for ED consultations. Agreement between uni- and multi-disciplinary panels was good. Applied to national data, these estimates would equate to ~18 million general practice and 6500000 ED consultations that could be redirected to community pharmacy, equating to ~£1.1 billion in resources. CONCLUSION: Minor ailment consultations still present a major burden on higher cost settings. Effective strategies are needed to raise awareness among patients and health professionals regarding conditions that can be managed effectively in pharmacies and to change patient health-seeking behaviour for such conditions.

A longitudinal study of lung function from 1†month to 18†years of age.

BACKGROUND: Our hypothesis was that factors associated with wheeze will be associated with changes in lung function trajectory between 1 month and 18 years of age. METHODS: Measurements of lung function were made in individuals aged 1, 6 and 12 months (V'maxFRC), and also at ages 6, 12 and 18 years (FEF(25-75)). Changes in lung function over time relative to sex, a history of asthma, maternal asthma and other factors were explored using random coefficient models. RESULTS: Lung function (maximal flow at functional residual capacity in infants and FEF(25-75) in children) was determined in 241 individuals at 1 month, 192 at 6 months, 164 at 12 months, 106 at 6 years, 183 at 12 years and 141 at 18 years. In the multivariable model, maternal asthma (mean reduction in lung function 9.8%), flow limitation (mean reduction 17.4%), infant atopy (mean reduction 12.6%) and maternal smoking (mean reduction in lung function 8.1%) were acting independently. When interactions with time were sought, the reduction in lung function associated with maternal asthma and infant atopy were consistent over time, but % lung function increased in boys by a mean of 1%/year compared with girls, in flow-limited individuals by 3.0%/year and by 0.9%/year for those exposed to maternal smoking during pregnancy compared to other cohort members. CONCLUSIONS: Decrements in lung function in 18-year-olds associated with maternal asthma and early onset atopy may be determined by 1 month of age. Low initial lung function in some individuals can 'recover' in some settings.

Measuring the psychosocial burden in women with low-grade abnormal cervical cytology in the TOMBOLA trial: psychometric properties of the Process and Outcome Specific Measure (POSM).

Background: There is a need for an instrument to measure the psychosocial burden of receiving an abnormal cervical cytology result which can be used regardless of the clinical management women receive.Methods: 3331 women completed the POSM as part of baseline psychosocial assessment in a trial of management of low grade cervical cytological abnormalities. Factor analysis and reliability assessment of the POSM were conducted.Results: Two factors were extracted from the POSM: Factor 1, containing items related to worry; and Factor 2 containing items relating to satisfaction with information and support received and change in the way women felt about themselves. Factor 1 had good reliability (Cronbach's alpha 0.769), however reliability of the Factor 2 was poorer(0.482). Data collected at four subsequent time points demonstrated that the factor structure was stable over time.Conclusion: This study demonstrates the presence and reliability of a scale measuring worries within the POSM. This analysis will inform its future use in this population and in other related contexts.