Core Outcome Set for Reporting Outcomes of Interventions for Velopharyngeal Dysfunction: Final Results of the COS-VPD Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To date, the recording of outcomes of interventions for velopharyngeal dysfunction (VPD) has not been standardized. This makes a comparison of results between studies challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a core outcome set (COS) for reporting outcomes in studies examining the management of VPD. DESIGN: A two-round Delphi consensus process was used to develop the COS. PATIENTS, PARTICIPANTS: The expert Delphi panel comprised patients and caregivers of patients with VPD, surgeons and speech and language therapists specializing in cleft palate, and researchers with expertise in VPD. INTERVENTIONS: A long list of outcomes was derived from the published literature. In each round of a Delphi survey, participants were asked to score outcomes using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations scale of 1 to 9, with 1 to 3 labeled "not important," 4 to 6 labeled "important but not critical," and 7 to 9 labeled "critical." MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Consensus criteria were specified a priori. Outcomes with a rating of 75% or more of the panel rating 7 to 9 and 25% or fewer rating 1 to 3 were included in the COS. RESULTS: A total of 31 core outcomes were identified from the Delphi process. This list was condensed to combine topic areas to produce a final COS of 10 outcomes, including both processes of care and patient-reported outcomes that should be considered for reporting in future studies of VPD. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the COS-VPD will facilitate consistency of outcomes data collection and comparison of results across studies.

Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data.

In England, 160 000 individuals were estimated to be chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2005 and the burden of severe HCV-related liver disease has increased steadily for the past 15 years. Direct-acting antiviral treatments can clear infection in most patients, motivating HCV elimination targets. However, the current burden of HCV is unknown and new methods are required to monitor progress. We employed a Bayesian back-calculation approach, combining data on severe HCV-related liver disease and disease progression, to reconstruct historical HCV incidence and estimate current prevalence in England. We explicitly modelled infections occurring in people who inject drugs, the key risk group, allowing information on the size of this population and surveillance data on HCV prevalence to inform recent incidence. We estimated that there were 143 000 chronic infections in 2015 (95% credible interval 123 000-161 000), with 34% and 54% in those with recent and past injecting drug use, respectively. Following the planned scale-up of new treatments, chronic infections were predicted to fall to 113 400 (94 900-132 400) by the end of 2018 and to 89 500 (71 300-108 600) by the end of 2020. Numbers developing severe HCV-related liver disease were predicted to fall by at least 24% from 2015 to 2020. Thus, we describe a coherent framework to monitor progress using routinely collected data, which can be extended to incorporate additional data sources. Planned treatment scale-up is likely to achieve 2020 WHO targets for HCV morbidity, but substantial efforts will be required to ensure that HCV testing and patient engagement are sufficiently high.

Increased uptake and new therapies are needed to avert rising hepatitis C-related end stage liver disease in England: modelling the predicted impact of treatment under different scenarios.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C (HCV) related disease in England is predicted to rise, and it is unclear whether treatment at current levels will be able to avert this. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of people with chronic HCV infection in England that are treated and assess the impact and costs of increasing treatment uptake. METHODS: Numbers treated were estimated using national data sources for pegylated interferon supplied, dispensed, or purchased from 2006 to 2011. A back-calculation approach was used to project disease burden over the next 30 years and determine outcomes under various scenarios of treatment uptake. RESULTS: 5000 patients were estimated to have been treated in 2011 and 28,000 in total from 2006 to 2011; approximately 3.1% and 17% respectively of estimated chronic infections. Without treatment, incident cases of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were predicted to increase until 2035 and reach 2290 cases per year. Treatment at current levels should reduce incidence by 600 cases per year, with a peak around 2030. Large increases in treatment are needed to halt the rise; and with more effective treatment the best case scenario predicts incidence of around 500 cases in 2030, although treatment uptake must still be increased considerably to achieve this. CONCLUSIONS: If the infected population is left untreated, the number of patients with severe HCV-related disease will continue to increase and represent a substantial future burden on healthcare resources. This can be mitigated by increasing treatment uptake, which will have the greatest impact if implemented quickly.

Protocol for the development of a core outcome set for reporting outcomes of management of velopharyngeal dysfunction.

INTRODUCTION: Velopharyngeal dysfunction (VPD) is present in up to 40% of patients following cleft palate repair. Children with VPD display hypernasal speech, nasal air emission and are at a high risk for developing articulation disorders. The overall result is decreased intelligibility and acceptability of speech, as well as significant functional and social impairments. Although there are several surgical approaches for the management of children with VPD, standard treatment protocols have not been well defined. There is a need for a core outcome set (COS) to reduce outcome reporting bias and heterogeneity across studies of VPD. The COS-VPD Initiative is an international effort to establish a COS for the reporting of studies of the management of VPD. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study has been developed according to the Core Outcome Set-STAandards for Development standards for the design of a COS study and will be carried out according to the guidance of the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) initiative. A long list of clinical and patient-reported outcomes will be identified from a systematic review of the literature. A two-stage Delphi consensus process will be used to refine this list into a COS. An international panel of key stakeholders including patients, parents and multidisciplinary clinical and academic experts will be invited to participate in this process. Consensus criteria will be specified a priori and the steering group will ratify the final COS. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has ethical approval through Children's Health Ireland at Crumlin Research and Ethics Committee, Ref: GEN/683/18. The study is registered with the COMET Initiative (http://www.cometinitiative.org/studies/details/1146?result=true). The COS will be disseminated by publication in the peer-reviewed literature, presentation at international research meetings and distribution to patient-representative organisations. This will facilitate the application of the COS in future studies of the management of VPD.

A national sample of individuals who acquired hepatitis C virus infections in childhood or adolescence: risk factors for advanced disease.

OBJECTIVES: To describe hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver disease in a national cohort of patients who acquired their infections in childhood or adolescence and to assess risk factors for progressive disease and response to antiviral therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Demographic, laboratory, and clinical outcome data on 246 individuals who acquired HCV infection before the age of 16 years were extracted from the UK HCV National Register database. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the independent effects of sex, age, duration and route of infection, and comorbidity on histological stage of liver disease. RESULTS: Median ages at enrollment and follow-up were 14.0 years (range, 2.2-29.6 years) and 19.2 years (range, 2.3-35.5 years), respectively. Mean duration of infection at enrollment was 8.5 years (standard deviation [SD], 3.3 years), and mean duration of follow-up was 4.5 years (SD, 4.5 years). Fifty-nine (24%) had persistently abnormal liver aminotransferase levels; 22% reported physical signs and symptoms of liver disease. Among 123 individuals with liver biopsies, 117 (95%) had abnormal histological findings. Ninety-eight individuals had biopsies referred for independent blind scoring; median Ishak grade and stage scores were 3 and 1, respectively. Presence of comorbidities (odds ratio [OR], 7.19; 95% CI, 2.00-26.17; P = 0.003) and female sex (OR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.10-1.00; P = 0.05) were independently associated with histological stage scores greater than the median. A total of 110 individuals received antiviral therapy; 47% achieved a sustained response. CONCLUSIONS: HCV-related liver disease in those who acquired the infection in childhood or adolescence was mild for most, although comorbidity and female sex were associated with more advanced disease. Antiviral therapy in childhood or adolescence successfully eradicates the virus for many patients.

Estimated progression rates in three United Kingdom hepatitis C cohorts differed according to method of recruitment.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate hepatitis C virus (HCV) progression rates between disease stages prior to cirrhosis, using data from liver biopsies in three observational cohorts. To demonstrate how the method of cohort recruitment can influence the estimation of HCV-progression rates. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Data came from three United Kingdom observational cohorts, assembled from different referral sources. In total, 987 HCV-infected patients with an estimated (or known) date of infection and at least one histologically scored liver biopsy were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. Liver biopsy scores were used to determine the stage of HCV-related liver disease. A three-state continuous time Markov model was used to estimate covariate-specific average probabilities of progression of disease. RESULTS: After adjusting for confounders, considerably different rates of disease progression were estimated in the three cohorts. For a group of patients with the same demographics, the estimated 20-year probability of progression to cirrhosis was 12% (95% confidence interval CI = 6-22) in a hospital-based cohort, 6% (95% CI = 3-13) in a posttransfusion cohort, and 23% (95% CI = 14-37) in a cohort recruited from a tertiary referral center. CONCLUSION: Researchers using estimates of disease progression should be aware that the method of cohort recruitment has considerable influence on the progression rates that are derived.

How to Motivate Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis to Quit Smoking.

OBJECTIVE: Seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is strongly linked to cigarette smoking, and smoking cessation is an essential step in RA management. Our objectives were to develop RA and smoking awareness materials and to evaluate the influence of the materials on awareness about the links between RA and smoking and on motivation to quit smoking. METHODS: A group of patients with seropositive RA in Fife, Scotland, were telephoned before the campaign, and the results of the precampaign questionnaire were used to develop the image for the campaign. After the campaign a second group of patients were questioned to ascertain the effect of the campaign. RESULTS: The 320 patient responses to the precampaign questionnaire revealed that many ex-smokers with RA had quit when they developed a known smoking-related disease such as emphysema. This concept was used to develop an image illustrating that RA is a smoking-related disease. The campaign was launched in Fife in 2011. The postcampaign questionnaire involving 380 patients revealed that there was 21% higher awareness of a link between RA and smoking and 45% higher awareness that smoking could interfere with treatment of RA. In total, 13/75 smokers who had cut down since the campaign had been influenced by the new information. CONCLUSION: The new materials have successfully increased patients' knowledge of the link between RA and smoking and the effect of smoking on RA therapy. RA smokers' attitudes to smoking may have been affected by the campaign.

Clinical course of hepatitis C virus during the first decade of infection: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical course of hepatitis C virus in the first decade of infection in a group of patients who acquired their infections on a known date. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Clinical centres throughout the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 924 transfusion recipients infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) traced during the HCV lookback programme and 475 transfusion recipients who tested negative for antibodies to HCV (controls). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical evidence of liver disease and survival after 10 years of infection. RESULTS: All cause mortality was not significantly different between patients and controls (Cox's hazards ratio 1.41, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 2.08). Patients were more likely to be certified with a death related to liver disease than were controls (12.84, 1.73 to 95.44), but although the risk of death directly from liver disease was higher in patients than controls this difference was not significant (5.78, 0.72 to 46.70). Forty per cent of the patients who died directly from liver disease were known to have consumed excess alcohol. Clinical follow up of 826 patients showed that liver function was abnormal in 307 (37.2%), and 115 (13.9%) reported physical signs or symptoms of liver disease. Factors associated with developing liver disease were testing positive for HCV ribonucleic acid (odds ratio 6.44, 2.67 to 15.48), having acquired infection when older (at age > or = 40 years; 1.80, 1.14 to 2.85), and years since transfusion (odds ratio 1.096 per year, 1.00 to 1.20). For patients with severe disease, sex was also significant (odds ratio for women 0.38, 0.17 to 0.88). Of the 362 patients who had undergone liver biopsy, 328 (91%) had abnormal histological results and 35 (10%) of these were cirrhotic. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis C virus infection did not have a great impact on all cause mortality in the first decade of infection. Infected patients were at increased risk of dying directly from liver disease, particularly if they consumed excess alcohol, but this difference was not statistically significant.