Patterns of stressful life events and polygenic scores for five mental disorders and neuroticism among adults with depression.

The dominant ('general') version of the diathesis-stress theory of depression views stressors and genetic vulnerability as independent risks. In the Australian Genetics of Depression Study (N = 14,146; 75% female), we tested whether polygenic scores (PGS) for major depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety, ADHD, and neuroticism were associated with reported exposure to 32 childhood, past-year, lifetime, and accumulated stressful life events (SLEs). In false discovery rate-corrected models, the clearest PGS-SLE relationships were for the ADHD- and depression-PGSs, and to a lesser extent, the anxiety- and schizophrenia-PGSs. We describe the associations for childhood and accumulated SLEs, and the 2-3 strongest past-year/lifetime SLE associations. Higher ADHD-PGS was associated with all childhood SLEs (emotional abuse, emotional neglect, physical neglect; ORs = 1.09-1.14; p's < 1.3 × 10-5), more accumulated SLEs, and reported exposure to sudden violent death (OR = 1.23; p = 3.6 × 10-5), legal troubles (OR = 1.15; p = 0.003), and sudden accidental death (OR = 1.14; p = 0.006). Higher depression-PGS was associated with all childhood SLEs (ORs = 1.07-1.12; p's < 0.013), more accumulated SLEs, and severe human suffering (OR = 1.17; p = 0.003), assault with a weapon (OR = 1.12; p = 0.003), and living in unpleasant surroundings (OR = 1.11; p = 0.001). Higher anxiety-PGS was associated with childhood emotional abuse (OR = 1.08; p = 1.6 × 10-4), more accumulated SLEs, and serious accident (OR = 1.23; p = 0.004), physical assault (OR = 1.08; p = 2.2 × 10-4), and transportation accident (OR = 1.07; p = 0.001). Higher schizophrenia-PGS was associated with all childhood SLEs (ORs = 1.12-1.19; p's < 9.3-8), more accumulated SLEs, and severe human suffering (OR = 1.16; p = 0.003). Higher neuroticism-PGS was associated with living in unpleasant surroundings (OR = 1.09; p = 0.007) and major financial troubles (OR = 1.06; p = 0.014). A reversed pattern was seen for the bipolar-PGS, with lower odds of reported physical assault (OR = 0.95; p = 0.014), major financial troubles (OR = 0.93; p = 0.004), and living in unpleasant surroundings (OR = 0.92; p = 0.007). Genetic risk for several mental disorders influences reported exposure to SLEs among adults with moderately severe, recurrent depression. Our findings emphasise that stressors and diatheses are inter-dependent and challenge diagnosis and subtyping (e.g., reactive/endogenous) based on life events.

Mapping gray and white matter volume abnormalities in early-onset psychosis: an ENIGMA multicenter voxel-based morphometry study.

INTRODUCTION: Regional gray matter (GM) alterations have been reported in early-onset psychosis (EOP, onset before age 18), but previous studies have yielded conflicting results, likely due to small sample sizes and the different brain regions examined. In this study, we conducted a whole brain voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis in a large sample of individuals with EOP, using the newly developed ENIGMA-VBM tool. METHODS: 15 independent cohorts from the ENIGMA-EOP working group participated in the study. The overall sample comprised T1-weighted MRI data from 482 individuals with EOP and 469 healthy controls. Each site performed the VBM analysis locally using the standardized ENIGMA-VBM tool. Statistical parametric T-maps were generated from each cohort and meta-analyzed to reveal voxel-wise differences between EOP and healthy controls as well as the individual-based association between GM volume and age of onset, chlorpromazine (CPZ) equivalent dose, and other clinical variables. RESULTS: Compared with healthy controls, individuals with EOP showed widespread lower GM volume encompassing most of the cortex, with the most marked effect in the left median cingulate (Hedges' g = 0.55, p = 0.001 corrected), as well as small clusters of lower white matter (WM), whereas no regional GM or WM volumes were higher in EOP. Lower GM volume in the cerebellum, thalamus and left inferior parietal gyrus was associated with older age of onset. Deficits in GM in the left inferior frontal gyrus, right insula, right precentral gyrus and right superior frontal gyrus were also associated with higher CPZ equivalent doses. CONCLUSION: EOP is associated with widespread reductions in cortical GM volume, while WM is affected to a smaller extent. GM volume alterations are associated with age of onset and CPZ equivalent dose but these effects are small compared to case-control differences. Mapping anatomical abnormalities in EOP may lead to a better understanding of the role of psychosis in brain development during childhood and adolescence.

Chronotype and subjective sleep quality predict white matter integrity in young people with emerging mental disorders.

Protecting brain health is a goal of early intervention. We explored whether sleep quality or chronotype could predict white matter (WM) integrity in emerging mental disorders. Young people (N = 364) accessing early-intervention clinics underwent assessments for chronotype, subjective sleep quality, and diffusion tensor imaging. Using machine learning, we examined whether chronotype or sleep quality (alongside diagnostic and demographic factors) could predict four measures of WM integrity: fractional anisotropy (FA), and radial, axial, and mean diffusivities (RD, AD and MD). We prioritised tracts that showed a univariate association with sleep quality or chronotype and considered predictors identified by ≥80% of machine learning (ML) models as 'important'. The most important predictors of WM integrity were demographics (age, sex and education) and diagnosis (depressive and bipolar disorders). Subjective sleep quality only predicted FA in the perihippocampal cingulum tract, whereas chronotype had limited predictive importance for WM integrity. To further examine links with mood disorders, we conducted a subgroup analysis. In youth with depressive and bipolar disorders, chronotype emerged as an important (often top-ranking) feature, predicting FA in the cingulum (cingulate gyrus), AD in the anterior corona radiata and genu of the corpus callosum, and RD in the corona radiata, anterior corona radiata, and genu of corpus callosum. Subjective quality was not important in this subgroup analysis. In summary, chronotype predicted altered WM integrity in the corona radiata and corpus callosum, whereas subjective sleep quality had a less significant role, suggesting that circadian factors may play a more prominent role in WM integrity in emerging mood disorders.

Brain-age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size.

Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain-age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain-age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain-age models pre-trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain-age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre-trained brain-age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best-performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain-age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5-90 years; 53.59% female). The pre-trained models were tested for cross-dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8-80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9-25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age-bins (5-40 and 40-90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain-age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain (https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2), an open-science, web-based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

The influence of economic policies on social environments and mental health.

Despite increased advocacy and investments in mental health systems globally, there has been limited progress in reducing mental disorder prevalence. In this paper, we argue that meaningful advancements in population mental health necessitate addressing the fundamental sources of shared distress. Using a systems perspective, economic structures and policies are identified as the potential cause of causes of mental ill-health. Neoliberal ideologies, prioritizing economic optimization and continuous growth, contribute to the promotion of individualism, job insecurity, increasing demands on workers, parental stress, social disconnection and a broad range of manifestations well-recognized to erode mental health. We emphasize the need for mental health researchers and advocates to increasingly engage with the economic policy discourse to draw attention to mental health and well-being implications. We call for a shift towards a well-being economy to better align commercial interests with collective well-being and social prosperity. The involvement of individuals with lived mental ill-health experiences, practitioners and researchers is needed to mobilize communities for change and influence economic policies to safeguard well-being. Additionally, we call for the establishment of national mental wealth observatories to inform coordinated health, social and economic policies and realize the transition to a more sustainable well-being economy that offers promise for progress on population mental health outcomes.

Malgré une meilleure sensibilisation et des investissements accrus dans les systèmes de santé mentale à travers le monde, les progrès en matière de réduction du degré de prévalence des troubles mentaux demeurent très limités. Dans le présent document, nous estimons que, pour réaliser des avancées au niveau de la santé mentale des populations, il est impératif de s'attaquer aux sources de cette détresse collective. En adoptant une perspective systémique, force est de constater que les politiques et structures économiques constituent les causes potentielles d'une mauvaise santé mentale. Les idéologies néolibérales, qui privilégient l'optimisation économique et la croissance ininterrompue, contribuent à promouvoir l'individualisme, l'insécurité professionnelle, la pression pesant sur les travailleurs, le stress parental, l'isolement social et un large éventail de facteurs associés à une dégradation de la santé mentale. Nous insistons sur la nécessité de faire appel à des chercheurs et défenseurs actifs dans ce domaine, afin de jouer un rôle dans la politique économique en attirant l'attention sur les implications pour le bien-être et la santé mentale. Nous plaidons pour une transition vers une économie du bien-être visant à rapprocher les intérêts commerciaux de la prospérité sociale et collective. L'intervention de personnes ayant été confrontées à des troubles mentaux, de praticiens et de chercheurs est nécessaire pour mobiliser les communautés en faveur d'un changement et influencer les politiques économiques pour préserver le bien-être. Par ailleurs, nous militons pour la création d'observatoires nationaux de la santé mentale qui serviront à orienter des politiques économiques, sociales et sanitaires coordonnées, mais aussi à favoriser l'évolution vers une économie du bien-être plus durable, laissant entrevoir une amélioration de la santé mentale au sein de la population.

A pesar del aumento de la promoción y las inversiones en sistemas de salud mental en todo el mundo, los avances en la reducción de la prevalencia de los trastornos mentales han sido limitados. En este documento, sostenemos que para lograr avances significativos en la salud mental de la población es necesario abordar las fuentes fundamentales de la angustia compartida. Mediante una perspectiva sistémica, las estructuras y políticas económicas se identifican como la posible causa de los problemas de salud mental. Las ideologías neoliberales, que priorizan la optimización económica y el crecimiento continuo, contribuyen al fomento del individualismo, la inseguridad laboral, el aumento de las exigencias a los trabajadores, el estrés parental, la desconexión social y una gran variedad de manifestaciones bien reconocidas que perjudican la salud mental. Insistimos en la necesidad de que los investigadores y los defensores de la salud mental se impliquen cada vez más en el discurso de la política económica para atraer la atención sobre las implicaciones para la salud mental y el bienestar. Pedimos un cambio hacia una economía del bienestar para alinear mejor los intereses comerciales con el bienestar colectivo y la prosperidad social. Para movilizar a las comunidades en favor del cambio e influir en las políticas económicas con el fin de salvaguardar el bienestar, es necesaria la participación de personas que han padecido enfermedades mentales, profesionales e investigadores. Además, pedimos la creación de observatorios nacionales de bienestar mental que sirvan de base a las políticas sanitarias, sociales y económicas coordinadas y permitan la transición a una economía del bienestar más sostenible, que ofrezca perspectivas de progreso en los resultados de salud mental de la población.

The effect of oxytocin nasal spray on social interaction in young children with autism: a randomized clinical trial.

Early supports to enhance social development in children with autism are widely promoted. While oxytocin has a crucial role in mammalian social development, its potential role as a medication to enhance social development in humans remains unclear. We investigated the efficacy, tolerability, and safety of intranasal oxytocin in young children with autism using a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial, following a placebo lead-in phase. A total of 87 children (aged between 3 and 12 years) with autism received 16 International Units (IU) of oxytocin (n = 45) or placebo (n = 42) nasal spray, morning and night (32 IU per day) for twelve weeks, following a 3-week placebo lead-in phase. Overall, there was no effect of oxytocin treatment over time on the caregiver-rated Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS-2) (p = 0.686). However, a significant interaction with age (p = 0.028) showed that for younger children, aged 3-5 years, there was some indication of a treatment effect. Younger children who received oxytocin showed improvement on caregiver-rated social responsiveness ( SRS-2). There was no other evidence of benefit in the sample as a whole, or in the younger age group, on the clinician-rated Clinical Global Improvement Scale (CGI-S), or any secondary measure. Importantly, placebo effects in the lead-in phase were evident and there was support for washout of the placebo response in the randomised phase. Oxytocin was well tolerated, with more adverse side effects reported in the placebo group. This study suggests the need for further clinical trials to test the benefits of oxytocin treatment in younger populations with autism.Trial registration www.anzctr.org.au (ACTRN12617000441314).

Towards a youth mental health paradigm: a perspective and roadmap.

Most mental disorders have a typical onset between 12 and 25 years of age, highlighting the importance of this period for the pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of mental ill-health. This perspective addresses interactions between risk and protective factors and brain development as key pillars accounting for the emergence of psychopathology in youth. Moreover, we propose that novel approaches towards early diagnosis and interventions are required that reflect the evolution of emerging psychopathology, the importance of novel service models, and knowledge exchange between science and practitioners. Taken together, we propose a transformative early intervention paradigm for research and clinical care that could significantly enhance mental health in young people and initiate a shift towards the prevention of severe mental disorders.

Social and joint attention during shared book reading in young autistic children: a potential marker for social development.

BACKGROUND: Atypical patterns of social engagement and joint attention behaviors are diagnostic criteria for people with autism spectrum disorder. Experimental tasks using eye-tracking methodologies have, however, shown inconsistent results. The development of tasks with greater ecological validity and relevance for developmentally appropriate social milestones has been identified as important for the field. METHODS: We developed a novel, dynamic eye-tracking task emulating a shared book reading (SBR) scenario. Four SBR videos of an adult reader engaging with the viewer while reading a children's picture book and including sequenced bids for joint attention were developed. Participants included 90 children (N = 56 autistic children, N = 34 neurotypical children; aged 3-12). Social attention was also measured in a live free play task between participants and an experimenter. RESULTS: Compared to neurotypical children, autistic children displayed reduced attention to socially salient stimuli including the reader's face and picture book across SBR videos and during joint attention bids specifically. In contrast, they showed increased attention to nonsalient background stimuli compared to their neurotypical peers. These attention patterns in autistic children were associated with reduced verbal and nonverbal cognitive skills and increased symptoms associated with autism. Interestingly, positive correlations in the frequency of eye gaze between SBR and free play suggested a potential predictive value for social attention in live social interactions. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight the utility of SBR eye-tracking tasks in understanding underlying divergences in social engagement and joint attention between autistic and neurotypical children. This commonly practiced early childhood activity may provide insights into the relationship between social engagement and learning to reveal how such attentional patterns might influence broader developmental and educational outcomes.

Rest-activity rhythms and tract specific white matter lesions in older adults at risk for cognitive decline.

White matter lesions (WMLs) are common in older adults and represent an important predictor of negative long-term outcomes. Rest-activity rhythm disturbance is also common, however, few studies have investigated associations between these factors. We employed a novel AI-based automatic WML segmentation tool and diffusion-weighted tractography to investigate associations between tract specific WML volumes and non-parametric actigraphy measures in older adults at risk for cognitive decline. The primary non-parametric measures of interest were inter-daily stability (IS), intra-daily variability and relative amplitude, with the anterior thalamic radiation (ATR), superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF) and inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF) selected as tracts of interest. One hundred and eight participants at risk for cognitive decline (classified as experiencing subjective or objective cognitive decline) were included (mean age = 68.85 years, SD = 8.91). Of the primary non-parametric measures of interest, results showed that lower IS was associated with a greater likelihood of higher WML burden in the ATR (OR = 1.82, 95% CI [1.12,3.15]). Analysis of secondary non-parametric measures revealed later onset of the least active period to be associated with greater likelihood of high WML burden in the SLF (OR = 1.55, 95% CI [1.00,2.53]) and increased activity during the least active 5-h period to be associated with a greater likelihood of high whole-brain WML burden (OR = 1.83, 95% CI [1.06,3.47]). This study shows integrity of the ATR and SLF, and overall WML burden is linked to altered rest-activity rhythms in older adults at risk for cognitive decline, with those demonstrating altered rest-activity rhythms showing 50%-80% higher odds of having high WML burden.

Structural brain alterations associated with suicidal thoughts and behaviors in young people: results from 21 international studies from the ENIGMA Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviours consortium.

Identifying brain alterations associated with suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) in young people is critical to understanding their development and improving early intervention and prevention. The ENIGMA Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviours (ENIGMA-STB) consortium analyzed neuroimaging data harmonized across sites to examine brain morphology associated with STBs in youth. We performed analyses in three separate stages, in samples ranging from most to least homogeneous in terms of suicide assessment instrument and mental disorder. First, in a sample of 577 young people with mood disorders, in which STBs were assessed with the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS). Second, in a sample of young people with mood disorders, in which STB were assessed using different instruments, MRI metrics were compared among healthy controls without STBs (HC; N = 519), clinical controls with a mood disorder but without STBs (CC; N = 246) and young people with current suicidal ideation (N = 223). In separate analyses, MRI metrics were compared among HCs (N = 253), CCs (N = 217), and suicide attempters (N = 64). Third, in a larger transdiagnostic sample with various assessment instruments (HC = 606; CC = 419; Ideation = 289; HC = 253; CC = 432; Attempt=91). In the homogeneous C-SSRS sample, surface area of the frontal pole was lower in young people with mood disorders and a history of actual suicide attempts (N = 163) than those without a lifetime suicide attempt (N = 323; FDR-p = 0.035, Cohen's d = 0.34). No associations with suicidal ideation were found. When examining more heterogeneous samples, we did not observe significant associations. Lower frontal pole surface area may represent a vulnerability for a (non-interrupted and non-aborted) suicide attempt; however, more research is needed to understand the nature of its relationship to suicide risk.

Does circadian dysrhythmia drive the switch into high- or low-activation states in bipolar I disorder?

OBJECTIVES: Emerging evidence suggests a role of circadian dysrhythmia in the switch between "activation" states (i.e., objective motor activity and subjective energy) in bipolar I disorder. METHODS: We examined the evidence with respect to four relevant questions: (1) Are natural or environmental exposures that can disrupt circadian rhythms also related to the switch into high-/low-activation states? (2) Are circadian dysrhythmias (e.g., altered rest/activity rhythms) associated with the switch into activation states in bipolar disorder? (3) Do interventions that affect the circadian system also affect activation states? (4) Are associations between circadian dysrhythmias and activation states influenced by other "third" factors? RESULTS: Factors that naturally or experimentally alter circadian rhythms (e.g., light exposure) have been shown to relate to activation states; however future studies need to measure circadian rhythms contemporaneously with these natural/experimental factors. Actigraphic measures of circadian dysrhythmias are associated prospectively with the switch into high- or low-activation states, and more studies are needed to establish the most relevant prognostic actigraphy metrics in bipolar disorder. Interventions that can affect the circadian system (e.g., light therapy, lithium) can also reduce the switch into high-/low-activation states. Whether circadian rhythms mediate these clinical effects is an unknown but valuable question. The influence of age, sex, and other confounders on these associations needs to be better characterised. CONCLUSION: Based on the reviewed evidence, our view is that circadian dysrhythmia is a plausible driver of transitions into high- and low-activation states and deserves prioritisation in research in bipolar disorders.

Improving access to mental health care: a system dynamics model of direct access to specialist care and accelerated specialist service capacity growth.

OBJECTIVE: To simulate the impact on population mental health indicators of allowing people to book some Medicare-subsidised sessions with psychologists and other mental health care professionals without a referral (direct access), and of increasing the annual growth rate in specialist mental health care capacity (consultations). DESIGN: System dynamics model, calibrated using historical time series data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, HealthStats NSW, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Early Development Census. Parameter values that could not be derived from these sources were estimated by constrained optimisation. SETTING: New South Wales, 1 September 2021 - 1 September 2028. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Projected mental health-related emergency department presentations, hospitalisations following self-harm, and deaths by suicide, both overall and for people aged 15-24 years. RESULTS: Direct access (for 10-50% of people requiring specialist mental health care) would lead to increases in the numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations (0.33-1.68% of baseline), hospitalisations with self-harm (0.16-0.77%), and deaths by suicide (0.19-0.90%), as waiting times for consultations would increase, leading to disengagement and consequently to increases in adverse outcomes. Increasing the annual rate of growth of mental health service capacity (two- to fivefold) would reduce the frequency of all three outcomes; combining direct access to a proportion of services with increased growth in capacity achieved substantially greater gains than an increase in service capacity alone. A fivefold increase in the annual service growth rate would increase capacity by 71.6% by the end of 2028, compared with current projections; combined with direct access to 50% of mental health consultations, 26 616 emergency department presentations (3.6%), 1199 hospitalisations following self-harm (1.9%), and 158 deaths by suicide (2.1%) could be averted. CONCLUSION: The optimal combination of increased service capacity growth (fivefold) and direct access (50% of consultations) would have double the impact over seven years of accelerated capacity growth alone. Our model highlights the risks of implementing individual reforms without knowledge of their overall system effect.

Phenotypic and genetic factors associated with donation of DNA and consent to record linkage for prescription history in the Australian Genetics of Depression Study.

Samples can be prone to ascertainment and attrition biases. The Australian Genetics of Depression Study is a large publicly recruited cohort (n = 20,689) established to increase the understanding of depression and antidepressant treatment response. This study investigates differences between participants who donated a saliva sample or agreed to linkage of their records compared to those who did not. We observed that older, male participants with higher education were more likely to donate a saliva sample. Self-reported bipolar disorder, ADHD, panic disorder, PTSD, substance use disorder, and social anxiety disorder were associated with lower odds of donating a saliva sample, whereas anorexia was associated with higher odds of donation. Male and younger participants showed higher odds of agreeing to record linkage. Participants with higher neuroticism scores and those with a history of bipolar disorder were also more likely to agree to record linkage whereas participants with a diagnosis of anorexia were less likely to agree. Increased likelihood of consent was associated with increased genetic susceptibility to anorexia and reduced genetic risk for depression, and schizophrenia. Overall, our results show moderate differences among these subsamples. Most current epidemiological studies do not search for attrition biases at the genetic level. The possibility to do so is a strength of samples such as the AGDS. Our results suggest that analyses can be made more robust by identifying attrition biases both on the phenotypic and genetic level, and either contextualising them as a potential limitation or performing sensitivity analyses adjusting for them.

A multidimensional approach for differentiating the clinical needs of young people presenting for primary mental health care.

OBJECTIVES: There is an ongoing necessity to match clinical interventions with the multidimensional needs of young people. A key step toward better service planning and the design of optimal models of care is to use multidimensional assessment to understand the clinical needs of those presenting to primary mental health care. METHODS: 1284 people aged 12-25 years presenting to primary youth mental health services completed an online assessment at service entry. Latent class analysis was conducted for seven scales assessing anxiety, depression, psychosis, mania, functioning (indexed by Work and Social Adjustment Scale), and suicidality. RESULTS: A three-class solution was identified as the optimal solution. Class 1 (n = 305, 23.75%), an early illness stage group, had low and mixed symptomatology with limited functional impairment, class 2 (n = 353, 27.49%) was made up of older persons with established depression and functional impairment, and class 3 (n = 626, 48.75%) had very high and complex needs, with functional impairment, suicidality, and at-risk mental states (psychosis or mania). Additional differentiating characteristics included psychological distress, circadian disturbances, social support, mental health history, eating disorder behaviours, and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of help-seeking young people present with symptoms and functional impairment that may exceed the levels of care available from basic primary care or brief intervention services. These subgroups highlight the importance of multidimensional assessments to determine appropriate service pathways and care options.

Dynamic modelling of the impact of community-based acute mental health services for children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of the recently announced 'Safeguards' initiative on mental health-related emergency department presentation rates for children and adolescents (0-17 years). This state-funded initiative aims to establish 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams across New South Wales. METHODS: We estimated the effects of the 'Safeguards' initiative using a state-level dynamic model of child and adolescent acute mental health care. Potential reductions in total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations (i.e. presentations within 3 months of an initial presentation) were assessed via a series of simulation experiments in which we systematically varied the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams and the mean duration of care per patient. RESULTS: Assuming a mean treatment duration of 6 weeks per patient, 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams are projected to reduce total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations over the period 2022-2031 by 15.0% (95% interval, 12.0-18.2%) and 31.7% (26.2-37.8%), respectively. Increasing the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams above 25 has minimal additional impact on projected reductions in numbers of emergency department presentations and re-presentations, provided the mean duration of care is no more than 8 weeks. However, where the mean duration of care is greater than 4 weeks, a decrease in the number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams below 25 reduces the potential effectiveness of the 'Safeguards' initiative significantly. CONCLUSION: Our simulation results indicate that full and timely implementation will be critical if the potentially substantial impact of the 'Safeguards' initiative on demand for hospital-based emergency mental health care is to be realised.

Preliminary results from the Australian Genetics of Bipolar Disorder Study: A nation-wide cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The Australian Genetics of Bipolar Disorder Study is a nation-wide cohort of adults living with bipolar disorder. The study aims to detect the relationships between genetic risk, symptom severity, and the lifetime prevalence of bipolar disorder, treatment response and medication side effects, and patterns and costs of health care usage. METHODS: A total of 6682 participants (68.3% female; aged 44.8 ± 13.6 years [range = 18-90]) were recruited in three waves: a nation-wide media campaign, a mail-out based on prescriptions for lithium carbonate and through the Australian Genetics of Depression Study. Participants completed a self-report questionnaire. A total of 4706 (70%) participants provided a saliva sample and were genotyped and 5506 (82%) consented to record linkage of their Pharmaceutical and Medicare Benefits Schedule data. RESULTS: Most participants were living with bipolar I disorder (n = 4068) while 1622 participants were living with bipolar II disorder and 992 with sub-threshold bipolar disorder. The mean age of bipolar disorder diagnosis was 32.7 ± 11.6 years but was younger in bipolar I (p = 2.0E-26) and females (p = 5.7E-23). Excluding depression with onset prior to bipolar disorder diagnosis, 64.5% of participants reported one or more co-occurring psychiatric disorders: most commonly generalised anxiety disorder (43.5%) and posttraumatic stress disorder (20.7%). Adverse drug reactions were common and resulted in discontinuation rates ranging from 33.4% for lithium to 63.0% for carbamazepine. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the high rate of comorbidities and adverse drug reactions among adults living with bipolar disorder in the general Australian population. Future genomic analyses focus on identifying genetic variants influencing pharmacotherapy treatment response and side effects.

Mental health systems modelling for evidence-informed service reform in Australia.

Australia's Fifth National Mental Health Plan required governments to report, not only on the progress of changes to mental health service delivery, but to also plan for services that should be provided. Future population demand for treatment and care is challenging to predict and one solution involves modelling the uncertain demands on the system. Modelling can help decision-makers understand likely future changes in mental health service demand and more intelligently choose appropriate responses. It can also support greater scrutiny, accountability and transparency of these processes. Australia has an emerging national capacity for systems modelling in mental health which can enhance the next phase of mental health reform. This paper introduces concepts useful for understanding mental health modelling and identifies where modelling approaches can support health service planners to make evidence-informed decisions regarding planning and investment for the Australian population.

Predictive modelling of deliberate self-harm and suicide attempts in young people accessing primary care: a machine learning analysis of a longitudinal study.

PURPOSE: Machine learning (ML) has shown promise in modelling future self-harm but is yet to be applied to key questions facing clinical services. In a cohort of young people accessing primary mental health care, this study aimed to establish (1) the performance of models predicting deliberate self-harm (DSH) compared to suicide attempt (SA), (2) the performance of models predicting new-onset or repeat behaviour, and (3) the relative importance of factors predicting these outcomes. METHODS: 802 young people aged 12-25 years attending primary mental health services had detailed social and clinical assessments at baseline and 509 completed 12-month follow-up. Four ML algorithms, as well as logistic regression, were applied to build four distinct models. RESULTS: The mean performance of models predicting SA (AUC: 0.82) performed better than the models predicting DSH (AUC: 0.72), with mean positive predictive values (PPV) approximately twice that of the prevalence (SA prevalence 14%, PPV: 0.32, DSH prevalence 22%, PPV: 0.40). All ML models outperformed standard logistic regression. The most frequently selected variable in both models was a history of DSH via cutting. CONCLUSION: History of DSH and clinical symptoms of common mental disorders, rather than social and demographic factors, were the most important variables in modelling future behaviour. The performance of models predicting outcomes in key sub-cohorts, those with new-onset or repetition of DSH or SA during follow-up, was poor. These findings may indicate that the performance of models of future DSH or SA may depend on knowledge of the individual's recent history of either behaviour.

Discontinuation of antidepressant treatment: a retrospective cohort study on more than 20,000 participants.

BACKGROUND: Factors influencing antidepressant treatment discontinuation are poorly understood. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of antidepressant treatment discontinuation and identify demographic characteristics, psychiatric comorbidities, and specific side effects associated with treatment discontinuation. METHODS: We leveraged data from the Australian Genetics of Depression Study (AGDS; N = 20,941) to perform a retrospective cohort study on antidepressant treatment discontinuation. Participants were eligible if they were over 18 years of age, had taken antidepressants in the past 4 years, and provided informed consent. RESULTS: Among the ten antidepressants studied, the highest discontinuation rates were observed for Mirtazapine (57.3%) and Amitriptyline (51.6%). Discontinuation rates were comparable across sexes except for Mirtazapine, for which women were more likely to discontinue. The two most common side effects, reduced sexual function and weight gain, were not associated with increased odds of treatment discontinuation. Anxiety, agitation, suicidal thoughts, vomiting, and rashes were associated with higher odds for treatment discontinuation, as were lifetime diagnoses of PTSD, ADHD, and a higher neuroticism score. Educational attainment showed a negative (protective) association with discontinuation across medications. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that not all side effects contribute equally to discontinuation. Common side effects such as reduced sexual function and weight gain may not necessarily increase the risk of treatment discontinuation. Side effects linked to discontinuation can be divided into two groups, psychopathology related and allergy/intolerance.

Characterising variability in youth mental health service populations: A detailed and scalable approach using digital technology.

OBJECTIVE: This study utilised digital technology to assess the clinical needs of young people presenting for care at headspace centres across Australia. METHOD: 1490 young people (12-25 years) who presented to one of 11 headspace services from four geographical locations (urban New South Wales, urban South Australia, regional New South Wales, and regional Queensland) completed a digital multidimensional assessment at initial presentation. Characteristics were compared between services and geographical locations. RESULTS: We identified major variation in the demographics, and the type and severity of needs across different services. Individuals from regional services were more likely to be younger, of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin, and present with psychotic-like symptoms and suicidality, while those in urban areas were more likely to have previously sought help and have problematic alcohol use. Further differences in age, distress, depressive symptoms, psychotic-like experiences, trauma, family history, alcohol use, education/employment engagement, and days out of role were identified between different urban sites. CONCLUSIONS: The variability between services provides insight into the heterogeneity of youth mental health populations which has implications for appropriate early intervention and prevention service provisions. We propose that integrating digital technologies has the potential to provide insights for smarter service planning and evaluation.